Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: What's new in Antarctica ?  (Read 303475 times)

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6799
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1049
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #850 on: September 07, 2023, 05:53:57 PM »
Thanks for the Hill and Reese papers.

sidd

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #852 on: September 08, 2023, 05:52:32 PM »
Quote
Casado and colleagues examined 78 Antarctic ice cores that hold a record of temperature and then compared those temperatures to climate models and observations.

The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found Antarctica was warming at a rate of between 0.22C and 0.32C per decade, compared to 0.18C per decade predicted by climate models.

Part of the warming in Antarctica is likely being masked by a change in a pattern of winds – also thought to be linked to global heating and the loss of ozone over the continent – that has tended to reduce temperatures.

payola and no details:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01795-1
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #853 on: September 08, 2023, 10:18:33 PM »
9 hours , 14 minutes Daylight time @ Scott base today

Equinox is in 12 days

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #854 on: September 10, 2023, 05:39:52 AM »
solar radiation peak at 80 watts / sq mt  at Scott base today

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ISCOTTBA1/graph/2023-09-10/2023-09-10/daily

Comradez

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 201
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #855 on: September 11, 2023, 07:22:44 PM »
I find it interesting that, while arctic sea ice does not seem to exhibit "memory" from year to year (i.e., if last melt season was a strong one, it is followed by an equally strong refreeze, and there tends to be very little correlation or long-term trend in winter maxima), it sure does seem like the antarctic sea ice is exhibiting "memory" this year considering that antarctic sea ice area and extent are still way into record low territory and the start of the melt season is nearly upon us.  Just a one-off coincidence this year, or attributable to some sort of key geographical difference between the arctic and antarctic?

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #856 on: September 11, 2023, 08:29:52 PM »
The Arctic is a filling in exercise after the yearly min. So more ice loss translates to more refreeze and they move in tandem. The same is happening in Antarctica but that borders open oceans. 

The refreeze must be very different. At the ocean edge there is a lot of wave action so the refreezing must be in the ice pack as it slowly drift around AA and away from its coast. Winds around AA changed shortly before gains began but the post on that is somewhere in The Arctic forum.

Historically it is all over the place but the never has been a time like now in the record. Since the next year is an El Nino year it can´t be a good year for recovery unless it does something to the AA winds that helps. So i guess we just have to watch and see (and thank Gero for the updates).

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Comradez

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 201
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #857 on: September 11, 2023, 09:03:44 PM »
What you say makes sense for the antarctic, Kassy.  But I wonder why the arctic does not seem to behave in the same way even in those areas where the arctic seas do border open ocean.  I am particularly thinking of the Bering Sea and the Greenland/Barentsz Seas.  Those seas don't seem to demonstrate much "melt memory" from year to year either, do they?  Are they still close enough to continental airmasses that that influence dominates whatever extra heat there is in those areas?

I wonder how much more arctic summer melt is possible at our current CO2 level, and whether it really is possible to reach a "Blue Ocean Event" in the arctic without, say, a year starting out with minimal ice in the Bering and Greenland/Barentsz Seas, and thus a substantially lower sea ice maximum to basically put the arctic a month ahead of where it would be normally in late March.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #858 on: September 11, 2023, 10:59:32 PM »
sea ice won't form unless the sea temp is below approx minus 2 ' C   ....and we keep adding heat to the oceans

baking

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 744
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 394
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #859 on: September 12, 2023, 07:31:27 AM »
I find it interesting that, while arctic sea ice does not seem to exhibit "memory" from year to year (i.e., if last melt season was a strong one, it is followed by an equally strong refreeze, and there tends to be very little correlation or long-term trend in winter maxima), it sure does seem like the antarctic sea ice is exhibiting "memory" this year considering that antarctic sea ice area and extent are still way into record low territory and the start of the melt season is nearly upon us.  Just a one-off coincidence this year, or attributable to some sort of key geographical difference between the arctic and antarctic?
This is a very basic idea that has been known for decades.  When comparing year-to-year sea ice area you need to look at the September minimums in the Arctic and the September maximums in the Antarctic.  The reason is simple geometry.

The winter maximum in the Arctic would not give you very much useful information because the sea ice expands until it hits the land that surrounds the North Pole.  Sure you can look at sea ice that escapes through the straits, but that is likely to be heavily dependent on local conditions like currents and not useful as a global measure.

Likewise, the Antarctic minimum hits land in the reverse way, with pockets of ice remaining  in local embayments.

What is really important is the border between the sea ice and the open ocean without any land masses to interfere.  That is simply open water in the Arctic and the sea ice spreading towards open water in the Antarctic.  These both reach their extremes in September.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9833
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3596
  • Likes Given: 4036
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #860 on: September 12, 2023, 11:06:52 AM »
Excellent point!

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #861 on: September 12, 2023, 07:33:11 PM »
..... arctic sea ice does not seem to exhibit "memory" from year to year (i.e., if last melt season was a strong one, it is followed by an equally strong refreeze, and there tends to be very little correlation or long-term trend in winter maxima).....

I beg to differ.

There is a correlation between melt and the following freeze in sea ice extent, though much less strong in freeze to following melt (graphs attached).

The is a long-term trend in the winter maxima (graph).
« Last Edit: September 12, 2023, 07:39:07 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #862 on: September 12, 2023, 07:49:51 PM »
But in the Antarctic it is a very different story.

About the only thing the first two graphs suggest is that currently melt is increasing year by year while freeze is decreasing marginally. But the R2 values are close to zero - so the trend is of no value?

The 3rd and 4th graphs attached suggest that there is very little correlation between freeze following melt, and melt following freeze, with R2 values in the low 20's percents.

Memory? I don't think so. And anyway, for the last few years we have been very much in uncharted waters. The developing El Nino could reduce the Antarctic summer sea ice melt by a large amount, or.....

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

seaice.de

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 130
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #863 on: September 12, 2023, 08:23:41 PM »
Maybe this fits into here?

New preprint available

Kaleschke, L., Tian-Kunze, X., Hendricks, S., and Ricker, R.: SMOS-derived Antarctic thin sea-ice thickness: data description and validation in the Weddell Sea, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-326, in review, 2023.

Figure attached: 2023 monthly anomalies

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #864 on: September 12, 2023, 09:17:47 PM »
10 hours , 13 minutes daylight time at Scott base today ......Equinox due on the 21st

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9833
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3596
  • Likes Given: 4036
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #865 on: September 13, 2023, 01:13:10 AM »
Maybe this fits into here?

New preprint available

Kaleschke, L., Tian-Kunze, X., Hendricks, S., and Ricker, R.: SMOS-derived Antarctic thin sea-ice thickness: data description and validation in the Weddell Sea, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-326, in review, 2023.

Figure attached: 2023 monthly anomalies
Thanks! Very interesting.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #866 on: September 13, 2023, 01:23:59 PM »
Thanks to kiwichick16 for giving the link to this paper on the Ice Apocalypse - Multiple Meters Sea Level Rise thread.

I am tempted to blow my own trumpet and burnish my know-all credentials by saying "I told you so", but being a modest chap, I won't.

The scientists who wrote this paper say there is evidence that Antarctic sea ice may have entered a new state with probably significant implications for the global climate.

Extracts below, also see attached images.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00961-9
Record low Antarctic sea ice coverage indicates a new sea ice state
Abstract
Quote
In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice set a record minimum; there have now been three record-breaking low sea ice summers in seven years. Following the summer minimum, circumpolar Antarctic sea ice coverage remained exceptionally low during the autumn and winter advance, leading to the largest negative areal extent anomalies observed over the satellite era. Here, we show the confluence of Southern Ocean subsurface warming and record minima and suggest that ocean warming has played a role in pushing Antarctic sea ice into a new low-extent state. In addition, this new state exhibits different seasonal persistence characteristics, suggesting that the underlying processes controlling Antarctic sea ice coverage may have altered.

Introduction

As a percentage of the monthly climatology, sea ice extents in January and February 2023 were the largest negative anomalies recorded in the 44-year observational period (35% and 37%, respectively Fig. 1b).

Following the summer minimum, Antarctic sea ice coverage has remained at, or near, record low values during 2023 (Figs. 1a, 2). For the time of year, Antarctic sea ice coverage was the lowest on record from the beginning of the year until early March, and again throughout May and June. At the time of analysis (early July 2023), the June monthly sea ice extent anomaly of 2.33 million square kilometres less than the average over 1979–2022 for June is the most negative anomaly of the satellite record, exceeding the monthly anomalies of January 2023, and December 2016, and roughly double the size of the previous record negative anomaly in June (Fig. 2). This raises important questions on the drivers of this extremely low sea ice coverage.

Results and Discussion
A new state for Antarctic sea ice
The temporal evolution of Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies over the observational period (Fig. 1a) has conventionally been described as a gradual multi-decadal increase, followed by a precipitous decrease in 20166. However, applying an algorithm for detecting change points in the sea ice extent anomaly time series (Methods) identifies two change points in the 44-year time series, separating the sea ice anomaly record into three periods with statistically distinguishable means (t-test, p < 0.01; Methods). The first period spans from the beginning of the record in November 1978 until August 2007; the second from September 2007 until August 2016; and the third from September 2016 until June 2023. Variability in the first period is lower than in the subsequent periods (F-test, p < 0.01), but variability in the two later periods is not statistically distinguishable.

These statistically significant changes in mean and variability raise the possibility that recent sea ice extremes are not just manifestations of interannual variability.

.... the current low sea ice state is characterised by circumpolar low sea ice anomalies (Fig. 3,

....the phase of the Southern Annular Mode cannot account for the low Antarctic sea ice over recent years: the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has historically been associated with colder sea surface temperatures and increased sea ice extent7, and in line with this, the 2017 record summer sea ice minimum (Fig. 1a, b) occurred at a time of anomalously warm surface temperatures in the Southern Ocean (Fig. 1c) and an anomalously negative Southern Annular Mode20. In contrast, the 2022 and 2023 record sea ice minima occurred when surface temperatures were close to the climatological mean (Fig. 1c) and the Southern Annular Mode was anomalously positive21, while the subsurface ocean was anomalously warm. The breakdown in this Southern Annular Mode-sea ice relationship raises the possibility that Antarctic sea ice has entered a new regime in which previously important relationships no longer dominate sea ice variability. Increased zonal asymmetry in the Southern Annular Mode over the satellite era may be important in contributing to this change22, however here we focus on an important consistency across the three recent record low sea ice summers: a warm subsurface ocean.

Southern ocean warming

Examining the temporal evolution of regional Antarctic sea ice coverage and subsurface temperature (Fig. 3) reveals the widespread nature of low sea ice coverage and warm ocean temperatures in the current low sea ice state. This can also be seen in spatial maps of Antarctic sea ice coverage and subsurface temperatures across the three identified periods

It is difficult to continue to support an explanation for a circumpolar sea ice reduction that relies only on the confluence of regional atmospheric modes. While the spring 2016 sea ice decline has been attributed to anomalous atmospheric circulation17,20,30,32, here we provide evidence supporting the hypothesis of Meehl et al.30 that the warm subsurface ocean was an additional and important driver of the low sea ice in spring 2016 (Fig. 3c) and the sustained low sea ice state since.

Changed sea ice persistence
The characteristics of Antarctic sea ice persistence in the new low sea ice state have also changed, strengthening the suggestion of a regime shift in sea ice behaviour.

Prior to 2016, maximum sea ice coverage in austral spring (occurring from mid-September to early October) was correlated with minimum sea ice coverage in the following austral summer (occurring mid-February to early March; Fig. 4a; over 1979/80–2015/16, r = 0.33, p < 0.05, and over 2007/08–2015/16 r = 0.62, p < 0.10) – more sea ice coverage at the spring maximum was associated with more sea ice coverage at the summer minimum, and vice versa. This relationship can be understood in terms of persistence, via the ice-albedo and ocean heat uptake feedbacks, whereby higher sea ice coverage in spring increases the albedo and reduces solar ocean warming in subsequent months, leading to a cooler surface ocean and higher sea ice coverage into summer2,33. Spring sea ice anomalies have also been shown to influence subsequent autumn sea ice anomalies in a re-emergence process involving mixed layer feedbacks34.

It is challenging to assess statistical changes in sea ice persistence during the recent period, given the small sample size (N = 7). Noting this limitation and treating results with caution, we find, since 2016, maximum sea ice coverage in spring is no longer correlated with minimum sea ice coverage in the following summer (Fig. 4a; over 2016/17–2021/23 r = 0.27, p ~ 0.5). Remarkably, in this recent period, minimum sea ice coverage in summer is found to be related with maximum sea ice coverage in the following spring (Fig. 4b; r = 0.91, p < 0.01), representing a fundamental change in the behaviour of Antarctic sea ice.

Multidecadal variability and change in the Southern Ocean
Our change point analysis demonstrates that since 2016, Antarctic sea ice has been in a low-sea ice state, which is statistically distinguishable from the earlier part of the sea ice record (Fig. 1a). We present strong evidence that the subsurface ocean warming began prior to the 2016 change point (Figs. 1c, 3c) and has persisted since, and we suggest that this warm subsurface ocean is contributing to the current low sea ice state. The length of the sea ice record and the current period makes it difficult to determine whether this low sea ice state constitutes a regime shift in Antarctic sea ice22,26, however we provide additional evidence supporting this. Namely, in the current low sea ice state, sea ice coverage is more tightly linked to the subsurface ocean conditions (Fig. 3), sea ice persistence characteristics have changed (Fig. 4), and the seasonal sea ice response to climate drivers has changed (e.g. the sea ice response to phases of the Southern Annular Mode, discussed above).

We cannot rule out the possibility that we are simply witnessing variability of the Antarctic sea ice system. There is large multidecadal variability in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice31,35,36, and over the 44-year sea ice record our change point analysis identifies three different sea ice states (Fig. 1a). A continuation of the low sea ice state in years to come would provide further support for a new regime for Antarctic sea ice.

It is also unclear whether the observed ocean warming is the manifestation of the second long-term warming phase of the two-timescale response to prolonged strengthened westerly winds seen in coupled climate models

Implications
The current extremely low sea ice will have a range of impacts. Changed ocean stratification and circulation will alter basal melting beneath ice shelves48. Greater coastal exposure will increase coastal erosion and reduce ice-shelf stability49. Changes in dense shelf water production will alter bottom water formation and deep ocean ventilation50. Sea ice changes will also have contrasting influences on Adélie and emperor penguin colonies51,52, and substantially alter human activities along the Antarctic coastline.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have been attributed as the primary cause of Southern Ocean warming28,29, and here we suggest a potential link to a regime shift in Antarctic sea ice. While for many years, Antarctic sea ice increased despite increasing global temperatures6, it appears that we may now be seeing the inevitable decline, long projected by climate models53. The far-reaching implications of Antarctic sea ice loss highlight the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #867 on: September 13, 2023, 02:40:21 PM »
Another thing broke. Another step towards more quick changes in the near future.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #868 on: September 14, 2023, 09:40:21 PM »
Another paywalled paper

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01791-5
The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica
Quote
Abstract
Global warming driven by human activities is expected to be accentuated in polar regions compared with the global average, an effect called polar amplification. Yet, for Antarctica, the amplitude of warming is still poorly constrained due to short weather observations and the large decadal climate variability.

Using a compilation of 78 ice core records, we provide a high-resolution reconstruction of temperatures over the past 1,000 years for seven regions of Antarctica and direct evidence of Antarctic polar amplification at regional and continental scales. We also show that the amplitude of both natural and forced variability is not captured by the CMIP5 and six model ensemble members, which could be explained in part by the Southern Annular Mode. This shows that failing to consider the feedback loops causing polar amplification could lead to an underestimation of the magnitude of anthropogenic warming and its consequences in Antarctica.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 700
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 374
  • Likes Given: 132
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #869 on: September 15, 2023, 06:38:30 PM »
https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-cancels-or-curtails-half-its-antarctic-research-projects

Quote
The U.S. Antarctic research program is in trouble, as canceled field seasons imperil data sets and demoralize researchers

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #870 on: September 15, 2023, 10:10:49 PM »
Which relates to planned the planned demolition and rebuild of part of the dormitory which got slowed down due to Covid. It looks like bad planning. Having an Antarctic research program cancelled at such a late stage should be pretty demoralizing because it is such a big problem also career wise. Sad story for many reasons...less data too.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #871 on: September 18, 2023, 02:28:18 AM »
11 hours 26 minutes daylight time @ Scott Base today ..... 3 days to the equinox.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #872 on: September 18, 2023, 07:50:37 AM »
Solar radiation peaked @ 250 watts / sq metre today at Scott Base

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #873 on: September 18, 2023, 01:31:55 PM »
Antarctic Sea Ice Algae Shown To Have a Seasonal Cycle

A new study has shown how sea ice algae adjust to the unusual seasonal rhythms of the Antarctic.

In the frigid waters surrounding Antarctica, an unusual seasonal cycle occurs. During winter, from March to October, the sun barely rises. As seawater freezes it rejects salts, creating pockets of extra-salty brine where microbes live in winter. In summer, the sea ice melts under constant daylight, producing warmer, fresher water at the surface.



This remote ecosystem is home to much of the Southern Ocean’s photosynthetic life. A new University of Washington study provides the first measurements of how sea-ice algae and other single-celled life adjust to these seasonal rhythms, offering clues to what might happen as this environment shifts under climate change.



The study, published Sept. 15 in the International Society for Microbial Ecology’s ISME Journal, contains some of the first measurements of how sea-ice microbes respond to changing conditions.

“We know very little about how sea-ice microbes respond to changes in salinity and temperature,” said lead author Hannah Dawson, a UW postdoctoral researcher who did the work while pursuing her doctorate in oceanography at the UW. “And until now we knew almost nothing about the molecules they produce and use in chemical reactions to stay alive, which are important for supporting higher organisms in the ecosystem as well as for climate impacts, like carbon storage and cloud formation.”

The polar oceans play an important role in global ocean currents and in supporting marine ecosystems. Microbes form the base of the food web, supporting larger life forms.

“Polar oceans make up a significant portion of the world’s oceans, and these are very productive waters,” said senior author Jodi Young, a UW assistant professor of oceanography. “These waters support big swarms of krill, the whales that come to feed on those krill, and either polar bears or penguins. And the start of that whole ecosystem are these single-celled microscopic algae. We just know so little about them.”

...

In other oceans, satellite instruments can capture dramatic seasonal phytoplankton blooms from space — but that isn’t possible for microbes hidden under sea ice. And Antarctic waters are particularly challenging to visit, leaving researchers with almost no measurements in winter.



In late 2018, Dawson and co-author Susan Rundell traveled to Palmer Station, a U.S. research station on the West Antarctic Peninsula. They used a small boat to sample seawater and sea ice at the same nearby sites every three days.



Back on shore, the two graduate students performed 10-day experiments in tanks to see which microbes grew as temperature and salinity were adjusted to mimic sea-ice formation and melt. They also shipped samples back to Seattle for more complex measurements of the samples’ genetics and metabolites, the small organic molecules produced by the cell.



Results revealed how single-celled algae deal with their fluctuating environments. As temperatures drop, the cells produce cryoprotectants, similar to antifreeze, to prevent their cellular fluid from crystallizing. Many of the most common cryoprotectant molecules were the same across different microbial lifeforms.



As salinity changes, to avoid either bursting in freshening waters or becoming desiccated like raisins in salty conditions, the cells change the concentration of salt-like organic molecules. Many such molecules serve a dual role as cryoprotectants, to balance conditions inside and outside the cell to maintain water balance.



The results show that under short-term temperature and salinity changes, community structure in each sample remained stable while adjusting the production of protective molecules. Different microbe species showed consistent responses to changing conditions. This should simplify modeling future responses to climate change, Young said.



Results also hint that the production of omega-3 fatty acids may decline in lower-salinity environments. This would be bad news for consumers of krill oil supplements, and for the marine ecosystem that relies on those algae-derived nutrients. Future research now underway by the UW group aims to confirm that result — especially with the prospect of increasing freshwater input from melting sea ice and glaciers.

...

https://www.technologynetworks.com/analysis/news/antarctic-sea-ice-algae-shown-to-have-a-seasonal-cycle-378904

OA paper:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41396-023-01475-0
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #874 on: September 18, 2023, 03:03:50 PM »
Scientist studies climate record embedded in Antarctic ice

A Canterbury climate modeler is part of an international team studying a 764-meter ice core that preserves more than 80,000 years of global climate data.

...

The RICE project aims to investigate the stability of the Ross Ice Shelf and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in a warming climate, and to better understand implications for global sea level change.

To enable this research, a deep ice core was extracted from Roosevelt Island in the Ross Dependency between 2011 and 2013 in field operations supported by Antarctica New Zealand and the US Antarctic Programme (USAP). Scientists hope the resulting data will improve the models used to project future climate change and assist understanding of the thresholds beyond which irreversible change will occur.

Dr. Venugopal's research focuses on the impact of Westerly wind patterns on the Southern Ocean as this affects the release of CO2 from deep ocean currents. The study, "Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32ka BP," a collaboration with colleagues from New Zealand (GNS Science and VUW), United States, Germany and Denmark, has been published in the journal Nature Communications.

"By studying the ice core, we see that when the Westerly wind belt shifted, it changes the way ocean currents move. This can alter the amount of carbon dioxide brought to the surface to be released into the atmosphere, which has a global impact," he says.

Roosevelt Island is a "grounded ice dome" formed when fallen snow creates layers of ice over millennia. These layers provide a highly accurate record of the temperature, dust composition, and gas concentrations present in the atmosphere during specific time periods.

Dr. Venugopal says the samples extracted from the Island provide an unparalleled archive of the planet's atmospheric and climatic history.

"The benefit of the ice core is that it gives a continuous record of temperature, sea-ice changes, and wind patterns, all from the same sample. By studying the changes in the ice over time we can see that, in the past, the climate system has approached thresholds at which change occurs very rapidly."

The study identified, for the first time, an abrupt equatorward shift in the position of the Westerlies 32,000 years ago during the last ice age. This research is part of the broader international scientific community's effort to look at past time intervals for clues on the behavior of important climate drivers, such as the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies.

The findings suggest that when such climatic thresholds are reached the atmospheric response can be rapid, taking place over a human timescale. As the future behavior of Westerly winds will be highly influenced by levels of greenhouse gas emissions this research will help to anticipate potential consequences, both regionally and globally.

...

more:
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-scientist-climate-embedded-antarctic-ice.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #875 on: September 21, 2023, 02:51:14 AM »

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #876 on: September 23, 2023, 12:10:31 PM »
A several hundred km long river running below the Antartica ice sheet. With three times the flow of the Thames.

https://www.wired.com/story/scientists-are-uncovering-ominous-waters-under-antarctic-ice/

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #877 on: September 23, 2023, 06:47:06 PM »
Supergiant iceberg makes surrounding ocean surface colder and less salty


The melting of the supergiant iceberg A-68 had a huge impact on the ocean around South Georgia, in sub-Antarctica, and significantly changed the Southern Ocean’s temperature and saltiness, with potentially major consequences for this ecologically significant region. The results are published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

In 2020, A-68 – a supergiant iceberg about the size of Luxembourg that calved from the Larsen C ice shelf in 2017 – drifted very close to South Georgia before starting to break up, releasing huge quantities of fresh, cold meltwater in a relatively small region.

Researchers from British Antarctic Survey and University of Sheffield used satellite data to observe how the melting iceberg affected the temperature and saltiness, or salinity, of the top few centimetres of the ocean surface. 

They observed the meltwater caused extreme anomalies in the temperature and saltiness of the waters at the ocean surface, of magnitudes that have not been reported for any previous iceberg disintegration so far. Researchers recorded temperatures up to 4.5°C colder than average. The salinity was reduced by more than 10 psu (a way of measuring the amount of salt in water) meaning the surface ocean became around two-thirds of its normal saltiness. 

This ‘signal’ from the melted iceberg eventually extended well beyond South Georgia; it was carried by ocean currents to form a long plume that stretched up to more than 1000km across the South Atlantic – roughly the distance from Land’s End to John O’Groats. 

The meltwater signal also took a long time to disappear – it was still visible more than two months after the iceberg disintegrated. 

...

https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/supergiant-iceberg-makes-surrounding-ocean-surface-colder-and-less-salty/

Impact of Giant Iceberg A68A on the Physical Conditions of the Surface South Atlantic, Derived Using Remote Sensing

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL104028
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #878 on: September 23, 2023, 10:10:19 PM »
Area now 1.1 million sq kms below the previous record low for this date

12 hours 52 minutes daylight time at Scott Base today and solar radiation at Scott base peaked at 250 watts/sq metre yesterday.


14 hours daylight time by the end of the month, and solar radiation increasing , with more than 1 million sq kms of extra open water, will probably mean significantly more energy being absorbed by the Southern Ocean

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #879 on: September 24, 2023, 11:33:42 PM »
13 hours and  7 minutes daylight time at Scott Base today

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #880 on: September 26, 2023, 09:54:51 PM »
13 hours and 36 minutes daylight time at Scott base today

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1045
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #881 on: September 28, 2023, 12:52:36 AM »
13 hours and 51 minutes daylight time at Scott Base today

John_the_Younger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 459
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #882 on: September 28, 2023, 01:18:19 AM »
kc16,
Why don't you post a chart showing the next fortnight or month's daylight time?

I think most ASIF readers think "new" means not predicted 20 or 100 years ago.

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 844
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5342
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #883 on: September 28, 2023, 01:30:54 AM »
Yeah, it just reads like spam.
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #884 on: September 29, 2023, 08:33:03 PM »
Acceleration of climate warming and plant dynamics in Antarctica

Summary
The strong air temperature warming between the 1950s and 2016 in the Antarctic Peninsula region1 exceeded the global average warming2,3 with evident impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and the two native Antarctic vascular plants Deschampsia antarctica Desv. and Colobanthus quitensis (Kunth) Bartl.4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Subsequently, a short but intense cooling occurred from the Antarctic Peninsula to the South Orkney Islands (1999–2016),1,11, 12, 13 impacting terrestrial ecosystems, with reduced lichen growth14 and no further expansion of D. antarctica in the Argentine Islands.5 The strong warming trend is predicted to resume15 with expansion of ice-free areas and continued impacts on the abiotic and biotic components of terrestrial ecosystems including the ingression of non-native species3,8,16,17 as recently recorded at Signy Island (South Orkney Islands).18, 19, 20 In this study we document acceleration in the expansion of D. antarctica and C. quitensis in the last decade (2009–2018) at Signy Island, where the air temperature warming trend resumed in summer after 2012. We hypothesize that the striking expansion of these plants is mainly triggered by summer air warming and release from the limitation of fur seal disturbance. We also hypothesize that the “pulse” climatic event of the strong air cooling detected in 2012 did not appear to influence the vegetation community dynamics on this island. This is the first evidence in Antarctica for accelerated ecosystem responses to climate warming, confirming similar observations in the Northern Hemisphere. Our findings support the hypothesis that future warming will trigger significant changes in these fragile Antarctic ecosystems.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982222001361
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #885 on: October 01, 2023, 10:43:54 PM »
Antarctica’s glacial border moves for miles with the tide


New measurements of how the boundary between onshore glacier and floating ice shelf glides back-and- forth could help predict melting

The grounding line of the southern Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica can shift up to 15 km (six miles) with changing tides, new analysis shows. The research, published today in The Cryosphere, examines the key region where land-based Antarctic ice spills over into the surrounding ocean. Observing and understanding the dynamics of this region can help scientists predict Antarctica’s response to climate change, and so how much global sea levels will rise.

“We typically think of ice sheet change as being very slow, taking place over decades, centuries or even millennia. But our findings highlight that there are some processes operating over minutes to hours that may have significant impacts,” says Bryony Freer, lead author and glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey and the Centre for Satellite Data in Environmental Science at the University of Leeds.

The location of Antarctica’s grounding line – the boundary between the land-based section of the ice sheet and the floating ice shelf – helps control ice stability. During a rising tide, extra buoyancy lifts more of the ice shelf off the seabed and the grounding line temporarily moves inland. It returns to its seaward position at low tide.

Earlier measurements of such grounding line movement were restricted to small regions over short timescales. In the new study, the researchers monitored a large chunk of the Ronne Ice Shelf grounding line (220 km) for nearly five years.

Using lasers bounced off the ice from the orbiting satellite ICESat-2, the team could measure to within a few centimetres the height of the ice surface and how it rose and sank with daily tides. They used this information to calculate the changing position of the grounding line.

The 15 km shift in the grounding line position between high and low tide described in the new paper is the one of the largest observed anywhere in Antarctica. It shows the grounding line can move at more than 30 km per hour, flushing ocean water several kilometres further inland under the ice sheet.

This exposure to sea water could help the ice melt more quickly from below. In less stable Antarctic regions, such as the Thwaites Glacier, this process is known to have driven long-term historic grounding line retreat.

Grounding line movement depends on the tidal range, the shape of the seafloor and the strength of the ice. The new study found the grounding line in some regions moved inland much faster during a rising tide than it later returned as the tide dropped — a particularly exciting finding according to the researchers. This is because it suggests that sea water may become trapped under the ice as the grounding line readvances and so takes longer to be flushed out, perhaps increasing the rate at which the ice sheet melts from below.

...

https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/antarcticas-glacial-border-migrates-for-miles-with-the-tide/
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

phelan

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #886 on: October 07, 2023, 07:30:26 AM »
'One of the biggest on record': Ozone hole bigger than North America opens above Antarctica

Quote
This year's ozone hole above Antarctica reached its maximum size on Sept. 16 when it peaked at a whopping 10 million square miles (26 million square kilometers), according to the European Space Agency (ESA), which monitors the hole with the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite. That is around the same area as North America, three times the size of Brazil, the equivalent of Russia and China combined or around twice the size of Antarctica itself.

"The 2023 ozone hole got off to an early start and has grown rapidly since mid-August," Antje Inness, a researcher at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said in the statement. It is "one of the biggest ozone holes on record," she added.

The enormous gap could be attributed to the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano, which exploded with the force of more than 100 Hiroshima bombs and created the tallest-ever recorded eruption plume when it popped its top in January 2022, researchers said.

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/weather/one-of-the-biggest-on-record-ozone-hole-bigger-than-north-america-opens-above-antarctica


kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2004
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #887 on: October 09, 2023, 08:06:15 PM »
Ice Shelf Water Structure Beneath the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica

Plain Language Summary
The loss of ice mass from the Antarctic ice sheet is accelerating, posing a threat to human lives through global sea level rise. Understanding ice shelf water (ISW), which refers to seawater below freezing temperature, is crucial as it directly or indirectly influences basal ice melting. However, direct observations are extremely challenging, leaving this understanding unclear. To tackle this issue, we utilized a numerical model to gain insight into the fundamental characteristics of ISW. We demonstrated that the direction and magnitude of ocean currents beneath the ice shelf play a significant role in determining the thickness and properties of ISW. Moreover, the key factor in basal melting was the northward movement of meltwater from intense ice melting regions near the grounding line. This movement determined the spatial distribution of ocean temperature and salinity. The horizontal gradient of ocean temperature and salinity induces mixing and horizontal intrusion. Interestingly, these mixing and intrusion phenomena occur in opposite directions, resulting in a wiggling pattern in the velocity profile. The main findings of our study will contribute to the formulation of a parameterization for basal melting, which can be incorporated into large-scale ocean models or ice sheet dynamics models.

...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL104088
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10478
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3537
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #888 on: October 12, 2023, 09:37:38 PM »
Over 40% of Antarctica's Ice Shelves Reduced In Volume Over 25 Years, Scientists Say
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-antarctica-ice-shelves-volume-years.html



....Some of the biggest ice losses were observed on the Getz Ice Shelf, where 1.9 trillion metric tons of ice were lost over the 25-year study period. Just 5% of that was due to calving, where large chunks of ice breakaway from the shelf and move into the ocean. The rest was due to melting at the base of the ice shelf.

Similarly on the Pine Island Ice Shelf, 1.3 trillion metric tons of ice were lost. Around a third of that loss—450 billion metric tons—was due to calving. The rest due to melting from the underside of the ice shelf.

In contrast, the Amery Ice Shelf—on the other side of Antarctica—gained 1.2 trillion metric tons of ice. It is surrounded by much colder waters.

Benjamin Davison et al, Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021, Science Advances (2023).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 583
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #889 on: October 12, 2023, 11:44:14 PM »
Benjamin Davison et al, Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021, Science Advances (2023).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186

Yet another result that I'd love to see extended to the present. What happened in Antarctica in 2022 and 2023 was crazy, and must have had an impact on those numbers.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #890 on: October 13, 2023, 04:00:11 PM »
You might want to have a look at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2903.msg384957#msg384957

Why? GFZ have(at last) updated to March 2023 their AIS Mass Loss analysis of GRACE-FO data, which includes data by individual drainage basins.

There is obviously a correspondence between ice-shelf mass loss and AIS mass loss (though SMB gains from snowfall obviously can muddle the picture).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #891 on: October 14, 2023, 09:53:52 PM »
There is obviously a correspondence between ice-shelf mass loss and AIS mass loss (though SMB gains from snowfall obviously can muddle the picture).
Below is an email I have sent to NSIDC. Worth a try?

It is all about connections - in this case between AIS mass loss, freshwater inflows into the Antarctic Seas, Surface melt, snowfall. Trouble is, most datasets use simlar but not identical geographical boundaries for their analyses.

It would help if I could look at Bellinhausen sea ice area and extent separately from Amundsen Sea sea ice area and extent, so that is what I have asked for -

Quote
Hullo NSIDC,
If you don't ask you certainly won't get, so I thought I would try this on with you.

It would be great for the NSIDC Antarctic tables to at least have an additional sheet containing just the Bellinghausen Sea data (see map with suggested split).

I submit this for two reasons
- the climatic environment west of the West Antarctic Peninsula is very different from that off the Amundsen coast,
- Antarctic Mass Loss from the coastal basins next to the Amundsen Sea and from the Peninsula are extremely high sources of freshwater inflows into these two seas that must have an effect on sea ice area and extent in those seas. It would be really interesting to have separate data for these two seas to relate to AIS mass loss bordering those two seas.

The Antarctic Mass Loss analysis by basins from the the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) (see map attached) allows me to group AIS mass loss into regions. I am going to change my current regional analysis (attached+analysis by basin) to much more closely conform to the "NSIDC Greenland Today" AIS surface melting map attached which would also separate AIS mass loss of the Peninsula from that of the coastal basins fronting the Amundsen Sea. and also allow comparisons with "Greenland Today" surface melting data.

I could then look in detail during the year at AIS mass loss / surface melting and sea ice area and extent changes separately in the two regions.

Sorry about this complicated email - all because I am so interested in trying to link datasets.

Thanking NSIDC once again for keeping this unique and special data series flowing.

With best regards,
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

glennbuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 439
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #892 on: October 15, 2023, 11:02:59 PM »
Is this graph accurate, looks from official source! maybe gerontocrat can comment on the deviation.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2023, 11:08:48 PM by glennbuck »

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #893 on: October 16, 2023, 01:21:23 AM »
Is this graph accurate, looks from official source! maybe gerontocrat can comment on the deviation.
Don't ask me - I stop at 2SD (University 55 years ago), and the Antarctic sea ice said goodbye to that yonks ago.

I can only comment that Antarctic sea ice loss is far beyond the limits recorded at any time in the 45 year satellite record - both in amount and in duration.

I think the next big thing to look at is as the minimum 2024 sea ice approaches what impact will there be on the multiyear landfast sea ice - especially in the Weddell sea which in my opinion is the last refuge of Antarctic sea ice. All the other Antarctic regions have occsasionally had minima of well under 50,000km2.

This year's (Feb '23) minimum was 732,000 km2, low compared with recent years, but well above the 1998 record low of 496,000 km2. If the Feb '24 minimum is signficantly below that 1998 minimum and we have an overall significant drop in the overall minimum from the 2022 overall record low, then maybe we can talk about an Antarctic BOE.

It's late in the UK - I'm off to bed.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Red Kite

  • New ice
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #894 on: October 16, 2023, 06:46:55 AM »
Is this graph accurate, looks from official source! maybe gerontocrat can comment on the deviation.
graph outdated (and it look scary but later 2023 line goes up and it begins from february 2023 to make it even more scary)

there are updated image -
https://zacklabe.files.wordpress.com/2023/10/nsidc_sie_ant_anomalies-3.png
from site https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
« Last Edit: October 16, 2023, 12:24:17 PM by Red Kite »

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 583
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #895 on: October 16, 2023, 07:45:13 AM »
Is this graph accurate, looks from official source! maybe gerontocrat can comment on the deviation.

It is basically accurate, although it is not directly from an official publication. Some of the shortcomings have already been mentioned by Red Kite. The lack of an x-axis scale may be the most serious of those.

The data source is given in the chart: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
That is from the official website of JAXA's National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR). It includes raw extent data, but no deviations (anomalies). Those have to be calculated by the user, which isn't difficult.

The chart is user-generated. Here's how to reproduce it:
1. Choose "Antarctic" in the region selector.
2. In the "Notes on numeric data of sea-ice extent" section, download the data. Choose "Seasonal Dataset" for the file format. Import into a spreadsheet editor, like MS Excel.
3. Calculate the averages and standard deviations for the years 1991 till 2020. That's the baseline given in the title of the chart.
4. Calculate the anomalies; that is, the difference between each year's value and the baseline average. Normalise the data by dividing by the standard deviations.
5. Plot the result.

If you do that, you get something like the chart attached, which is a close match to the original.

The latest data point is from October 5th. I think that's due to the recent (expected) data outage at JAXA. I expect the more recent data to be added soon.

There are a few gaps, where data is not available. The gap at x=59 is due to most years not having a February 29th. 2023 is colored red, like in the plot you posted. I have also coloured the interesting years 2016 and 2022 in green and orange, respectively.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2023, 11:47:30 PM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 583
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #896 on: October 16, 2023, 08:38:53 AM »
maybe gerontocrat can comment on the deviation.

Since Gero has "refused" to comment, I'll try.

The deviation of more than -7 standard deviations looks striking, and it is. Interpreting it is difficult though. There are two main reasons, the second of which may be a technicality:
1. We can't assume that the system is stable (that the average and standard deviation don't change over time). Antarctic sea ice in recent years looks to become more "volatile", with larger deviations (positive AND negative) than seen before.
2. Converting standard deviations to probabilities assumes that the data is normally distributed. Whenever you see someone make a claim about the probability of an event, they are making this assumption. We have no reason to think that sea ice extent numbers should follow a normal distribution.

If the assumptions 1 (stable system) and 2 (normally distributed) were justified then a 7-sigma deviation would happen about once in a trillion days, which is a number that's of the same order as the age of the universe. That's as good as saying it should never happen.

A better, but less catchy way to put it would be that the system is either not stable, or that large deviations naturally happen more often than one might expect, and that we can't tell which of those is the right explanation just from this one dataset. You can try to put it into the wider context of human-made climate change, but we don't know much about Antarctic sea ice (less than about the Arctic), so that's hard to do.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 761
  • Likes Given: 465
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #897 on: October 16, 2023, 09:01:11 PM »
Please find a new video of the series "Just Have A Think" about disturbing new findings on Antarctic Amplification, loss of sea ice and more stratification in the Southern Ocean.
All of these are able to run in a viscous circle which speeds up ice melt, calving activities and temperature increase even further...

It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 583
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #898 on: October 16, 2023, 11:44:08 PM »
The latest data point is from October 5th. I think that's due to the recent (expected) data outage at JAXA. I expect the more recent data to be added soon.

JAXA has now done just that, so here's the same chart again, with the data up to October 15th. The last two weeks have been really bad...
« Last Edit: October 16, 2023, 11:49:13 PM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21111
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5325
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« Reply #899 on: October 18, 2023, 09:54:52 PM »
I recently sent an email to NSIDC asking them to consider splitting BellinghausenAmundsen sea ice data into two seas. See extract at end.

Their answer is below - it is no, at least not yet. Some may be interested in the alternative masks that they do provide. Links are in their email.
Quote
Gail, Oct 17, 2023, 14:38 MDT:
Hello again,
 
I have received some input from our science team which may help with your research:
 
"The Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas region was defined for sea ice many years ago at NASA Goddard and we adopted it here. It is a good point about the differences between the seas and the potential value of splitting them into separate regions. It is something we will consider in the future.
 
We do have a data product with new region mask definitions:
 
https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0780/versions/1
 
These do include a set of modified regions for the Antarctic, based on an analysis by Raphael and Hobbs (2014), https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060365. This has a narrower B-A region, though they are still combined.
 
The new data product referenced above includes gridded fields in NetCDF and GIS shape files. One could potentially use those files and split out the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas into self-defined regions.
 
Kindly,
______________________________________
Hullo NSIDC,
If you don't ask you certainly won't get, so I thought I would try this on with you.

It would be great for the NSIDC Antarctic tables to at least have an additional sheet containing just the Bellinghausen Sea data (see map with suggested split).

I submit this for two reasons
- the climatic environment west of the West Antarctic Peninsula is very different from that off the Amundsen coast,
- Antarctic Mass Loss from the coastal basins next to the Amundsen Sea and from the Peninsula are extremely high sources of freshwater inflows into these two seas that must have an effect on sea ice area and extent in those seas. It would be really interesting to have separate data for these two seas to relate to AIS mass loss bordering those two seas.

The Antarctic Mass Loss analysis by basins from the the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) (see map attached) allows me to group AIS mass loss into regions.

I could then look in detail during the year at AIS mass loss / surface melting and sea ice area and extent changes separately in the two regions.

Thanking NSIDC once again for keeping this unique and special data series flowing.

With best regards,
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)