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Can the ice floe slow down the destruction of the oldest ice?

She will not be able to block the strait of Nares
31 (73.8%)
Blocks for a day
4 (9.5%)
Blocks for a couple of days
4 (9.5%)
Blocks for 3-7 days
2 (4.8%)
Blocks for 8-14 days
1 (2.4%)
Lock for more than two weeks
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 42

Author Topic: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019  (Read 2047 times)

ArcticMelt2

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The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« on: June 09, 2019, 07:24:54 AM »
Photo of the heroic ice floe:


ArcticMelt2

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2019, 08:17:25 AM »
Latest Photo:


Tor Bejnar

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2019, 08:32:40 AM »
I'm sure there will be other large floes approaching Nares Strait this year, lots of them, in fact.  I do not expect any of them to block the Strait, however.  "First" and "Second" came remarkably close, though - I'm rather proud of them!  Back in the day (2012) we thought an honest-to-god iceberg that broke off of the Petermann Glacier would block the Strait, maybe for even a year, but it slipped by the islands.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2019, 09:16:28 AM »
So was 'Very Big Chunk', ArcticMelt2.

Even the thicker ice these days is quite thin.

The VBC wintered further south than this floe. In addition, the intermediate size of ice floes is much more stable than very large ice floes. Discussed floe in the picture from April 26:

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2019, 09:18:38 AM »
I'm a first-year Nares watcher. Someone mentioned in the Nares Strait thread, that a block is usually caused by growing fast ice, blocking it by freezing. That made me thinking if it's not cold enough to produce fast ice, a floe (that has to withstand tidal and current forces) has very very little chance of blocking the strait.

But let's see what it can do. How is it called btw?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2019, 06:11:36 AM »
It has already started to crack.

(Click to play)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2019, 10:43:07 AM »
It has already started to crack.

Apparently this is a very small break. On the last radar image of the ice floe looks very stable.

In general, the probability of blocking the entrance to the strait remains high.

be cause

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2019, 10:55:18 AM »
 .. it's being dragged into place by a fleet of submarines .. :) .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2019, 11:09:28 AM »
probability of blocking the entrance to the strait remains high.

I have to admire your optimism, but 21 votes do see it differently. ;)

Yes, it's only a small part that's broke up. But for how i see it in the Slider, this bit broke up when She was pushed around by a tidal wave. This speaks volumes to the structural integrity. Wait until she bumps into Ellesmere...


be cause

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2019, 11:42:44 AM »
as I hadn't voted .. you can make that 22 .. :) b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2019, 11:44:03 AM »
Thanks for your solidarity B. C. ;)

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2019, 11:47:05 AM »
The majority of votes does not mean truth. I remember that none of the scientists could correctly predict how much ice will remain in September 2013 (all forecasts turned out to be lower than reality).

oren

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2019, 01:56:51 PM »
Obviously, we will know in a few days if it blocks, or less than that when it shatters (and it will...).

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2019, 03:54:25 PM »
Nice radar pic came in. I pimped up the contrast.

Pmt111500

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2019, 04:27:59 PM »
Nice radar pic came in. I pimped up the contrast.
That is not a solid potato chip. Pressure ridges or smthng, interesting to see if it cracks along the lines. Permission to steal and modify? That looks almost head-shaped?
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2019, 04:34:30 PM »
interesting to see if it cracks along the lines. Permission to steal and modify?

Had the exact same thought! Will keep that in mind. :)

magnamentis

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2019, 04:42:36 PM »
In general, the probability of blocking the entrance to the strait remains high.

looking back in time/history of that floe you shall see that not that long ago it was split in 2 about 1 third north and 2 thirds south and glued/frozen together and then snowed in.

that means it are at least 2, probably more old smaller floes that will fall apart on first contact or earlier, depending on currents and other kinetic energy applied.

this thing will be very disappointing for some optimists/illusionist, hope dies last as we all know ;)
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2019, 04:44:38 PM »
That looks almost head-shaped?

Hmmm...

magnamentis

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2019, 04:46:50 PM »
The majority of votes does not mean truth. I remember that none of the scientists could correctly predict how much ice will remain in September 2013 (all forecasts turned out to be lower than reality).

of course not but 100 eyes see more than 2 and 50 brains know more and have more experience than 1, hence there is a certain probability that the majority is either closer to the truth to come and even higher that the other extreme of the spectrum won't happen 1/1000 chance perhaps but not impossible, we're not fortune tellers of course and nobody has purchased the truth ;)

let's see, interesting as always, remembering the barrows ice-bridge recently, a matter of hourse at the end of the story ;)
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Neven

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2019, 05:21:15 PM »
It's going to look something like this:



This animation is from one the first blog posts on the ASIB, almost 9 years ago to the day.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2019, 05:36:26 PM »
Surely like a garlic press...

Speaking of which, is the NS officially part of the garlic press?

Neven

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2019, 05:56:47 PM »
No, it's the parmesan cheese grater.  ;)
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2019, 06:00:28 PM »
Ah, i see!

Like this one.

Neven

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2019, 11:07:01 PM »
Or maybe it's more like this:

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #24 on: June 13, 2019, 07:54:59 AM »
Ok, Neven, you won.  ;D

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #25 on: June 13, 2019, 07:05:27 PM »
She was pushed around a little.

Rich

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #26 on: June 13, 2019, 07:48:30 PM »
Nice radar pic came in. I pimped up the contrast.

One of Jim Carrey's early movies was The Mask with Cameron Diaz.

That looks like the mask.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2019, 05:45:41 AM »
She has cracked once more.

She might be mangled before even entering the strait.

magnamentis

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2019, 03:21:56 PM »
She has cracked once more.

She might be mangled before even entering the strait.

the more snow on the surface is gone the more we can see that this is not really one floe but kind of smaller units frozen together during winter. i think neven's and others prediction of crush-ice laying ahead is quite spot on.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2019, 03:25:39 PM »
Yeah, and that snow will be gone quickly. It's windy and well above freezing...

We'll see soon.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #30 on: June 14, 2019, 06:16:33 PM »
Confirmed, Mag!

She cracked quite a lot today.

I'm afraid this is the end of this poll already. :(

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #31 on: June 15, 2019, 12:19:59 AM »
Confirmed, Mag!

She cracked quite a lot today.

I'm afraid this is the end of this poll already. :(

You will need one of the calved icebergs from the north of Greenland, to block Nares Strait, but they are rare nowadays, there are few minors left from Steensby, Ryder and Ostenfeldt glaciers in their respective fjords, but all of them do not have the size to block Nares. So  time is better spend watching something else?
Remember The Petermann Calves went down Nares without problems?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #32 on: June 15, 2019, 06:56:18 AM »
So  time is better spend watching something else?

Is it weird to watch the Nares? Sure...

Is watching the Nares fun anyway? You Betcha!

 ;D

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #33 on: June 20, 2019, 11:07:16 AM »
Confirmed, Mag!

She cracked quite a lot today.

I'm afraid this is the end of this poll already. :(

Folks, i was dead wrong!

Today there is a clear Sentinel shot of She. What i thought to be cracks ain't being cracks at all (yet)!!

The race is still on! \o/

oren

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #34 on: June 20, 2019, 01:01:03 PM »
Nares was so afraid that it blew a massive wind from the south to keep her away.

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #35 on: June 20, 2019, 01:05:16 PM »
her ? The way 'she's' turning blue I reckon she wants to be a buoy ! :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #36 on: June 20, 2019, 01:50:27 PM »
Nah, 'She' is a totally gender-neutral name! ;)

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #37 on: June 20, 2019, 02:51:50 PM »
Nah, 'She' is a totally gender-neutral name! ;)
IT is bust?

Anyway, even if it is not, if the current doesn't start up again it will die where it is.

Image attached 19-06-2019 [TERRA]
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #38 on: June 20, 2019, 02:54:02 PM »
"It" has a name, sir!

And yes, looks kinda bust.

gerontocrat

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #39 on: June 20, 2019, 03:53:55 PM »
"It" has a name, sir!

And yes, looks kinda bust.
Since it has got a name, it can be buried with full Arctic Honours?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #40 on: June 20, 2019, 04:12:05 PM »
Well, it sure looks like She is in a crematory...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2019, 06:29:37 PM »
Am I seeing slap-happy 'drunkenness' (here and "Stupid Questions" and "Meaningless") because we are scared out of our wits with what we think we're seeing in the Arctic?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2019, 06:32:28 PM »
How dare you, sir? I'm as sober as it gets!

Prost!

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #43 on: June 23, 2019, 09:07:09 PM »
Last hope to block the strait died.  >:( Most turned right.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #44 on: June 23, 2019, 09:10:16 PM »
Yep! Goodbye She.

(Well, since the surface current is unavailable at the moment, we'll see She around for some time to come)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The fate of the last rescuing ice floe in summer 2019
« Reply #45 on: June 23, 2019, 10:08:48 PM »
We used to need Baffin Bay to melt the ice exported through Nares Strait.  "They" decided to cut out the middleman and are now melting that ice in the Lincoln Sea.  What will Nares do for a living now?  Talk about being in dire straits! :o ::) :P
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