Dahr Jamail, The Climate Change Scorecard

[Sigmetnow]

Dahr Jamail, The Climate Change Scorecard

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175785/tomgram%3A_dahr_jamail%2C_the_climate_change_scorecard/#more

"November 2013: The International Energy Agency predicts a 3.5C increase by 2035."

"Fifty-five million years ago, a five degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures seems to have occurred in just 13 years ."

 "While the human body is potentially capable of handling a six to nine degree Celsius rise in the planetary temperature, the crops and habitat we use for food production are not."

“The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today’s levels, and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C or more higher. These estimates are based on real long-term climate records, not on models.”

"There is nothing that can be agreed in 2015 that would be consistent with the 2 degrees...  The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2-degree goal is to shut down the whole global economy."


Not exactly the Christmas Eve message I was hoping for, but we have what we have.

[wili]

There was just an interesting bit on the radio about black holes. The analogy was that it was like being on a boat in a river heading toward the Niagara Falls. At first you are just drifting along and it doesn't seem any different than any other river. At some point you start noticeably accelerating, but it still is not catastrophic.

But somewhere in along the way you cross over the point where, no matter how hard you paddle, you can't overcome the force of the river. It can be hard to know exactly where that point is (especially when you are continuing to paddle furiously in the direction of the falls, as we are doing). You haven't quite gone over the falls yet, but the force of the stream is starting to pull your boat apart.

This is where we are now.

Parts of the boat are starting to make uncomfortable creaking sounds and bits are starting to visibly come apart.

We can't know for sure at this point if we have passed the point where, if we start doing all we reasonably, we could still possibly reverse course. And we continue to be propelling ourselves full blast toward the 'falls' with ever higher carbon emissions every year.

But our major climate scientists and research institutions are now saying that RIGHT NOW/2014 is probably our last chance to start rowing the opposite direction, and then only if we put all our might into it--6 to 10% (or more) decreases in carbon emissions every year starting NOW.

If we don't, do so now, the level of exertion necessary to counter the force of the current might break the boat apart and the jolt of the reversal will throw many off the boat--15 or more percent reductions every year in global emissions.

So, what are you planning to do this year?

And New Years Carbon Resolutions?

[AbruptSLR]

In reply #81 at the following link, Sidd makes the following post:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,41.50.html#lastPost

"Should not take than CSM report or the IEA seriously. Birol is a showman, IEA exaggerated possible oil reserves for years. And CSM got the reporting wrong.

What the IEA actually said, and with which i disagree: in 35 years, given IEA numbers on future fossil carbon combustion, enough fossil carbon will be released to commit to _eventual_ surface temperature rise of 3.5C

_Not_ that 3.5 C rise will occur by 2035, but that enough carbon will be released by then to lock in eventual (century or millennium scale) rise of 3.5C

As i said, i disagree even with this watered down version of CSM version of IEA claim. IEA has been gloriously wrong in the past, and in my opinion, is wrong on this one also. Fossil carbon use will be nowhere close to their claims. For one thing, coal is dead, and the vultures are gathering. I am looking at financing reports and forget trying to get a loan for a new coal project, and forget trying to expand or upgrade existing production or use. Banks are finally catching on, mainly because they find they can't lay off the risks like they used to. And existing credit arrangements with fossil companies are a)not being rolled over or b) extortionate rate increases are being imposed on all our favorite villains like Peabody and Massey c) New "special contingency" fees are being imposed on all coal or coal burning projects going forward.


This report was from 2010, world is changing quickly

sidd"

[crandles]

Dahr Jamail, The Climate Change Scorecard

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175785/tomgram%3A_dahr_jamail%2C_the_climate_change_scorecard/#more

"November 2013: The International Energy Agency predicts a 3.5C increase by 2035."

Which section do you think that Prediction comes from?

I don't see any appropriate section in the table of contents:
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2013/WEO2013_TableOfContents.pdf

it is obviously nonsense. Even 'locked in' 3.5C by mid century suggested by Guy McPherson later in the article while more plausible as a high end possibility, it is rather questionable and is hardly a prediction for a 3.5C increase by 2035.

Was Guy McPherson involved with or quoted by AMEG?

[Steven]

What the IEA actually said, and with which i disagree: in 35 years, given IEA numbers on future fossil carbon combustion, enough fossil carbon will be released to commit to _eventual_ surface temperature rise of 3.5C

Here's a quote from the 2010 world energy outlook from the International Energy Agency:

"the New Policies Scenario [...] puts us on a long-term path that is consistent with the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent stabilising at around 650 parts per million (Figure 13.3). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this level of concentration is likely to lead to a temperature increase of above 3.5°C (IPCC, 2007)."

Source  (page 384, my bold).

So this assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions throughout the entire 21st century continue to follow a certain pathway. 

The 2013 outlook is paywalled but I guess it's similar.

[Sigmetnow]

I appreciate the corrections/clarifications to the information in the article. 

In a sad sense, the details seem less and less important.  We're on a bus, speeding toward the edge of a cliff.  It's dusty, so we can't see precisely how far ahead the ledge is.  But we know it's out there, and still we haven't applied the brakes, or let off the gas -- we continue to speed up, globally emitting more carbon every year.  There have been plenty of warning signs: mass species extinctions, glacier retreat, arctic sea ice loss.  But we've been so busy texting, we haven't paid attention.  That bump we just felt (Hurricane Sandy, Australia heat, Eurasian flooding) could be the front wheels of the bus going over the edge of the cliff.  At this point, we may simply be debating the dimensions of the canyon.

[ccgwebmaster]

We can't know for sure at this point if we have passed the point where, if we start doing all we reasonably, we could still possibly reverse course. And we continue to be propelling ourselves full blast toward the 'falls' with ever higher carbon emissions every year.

I think we can be pretty sure. The recent research suggesting forecast temperature rises will likely tend to the high end due to better understanding of cloud effects is pretty much the last nail in the coffin even sticking to the mainstream stuff. To even debate 2C is now irrelevant, a bigger question would be 4C - and it's not noted enough yet that that's global average - one is taking more in most major land masses.

With all trends still headed the wrong way - what scope to reverse anything or even hold any line is there?

So, what are you planning to do this year?

That almost merits a topic of it's own except I wonder if anyone will be doing anything new as another year rolls by. It's comfortable to talk and less so to act - and those who are acting will know what I mean.

Course I might still be jaded from a recent ocean mini-adventure, I'm still going to take another shot (as remarkable luck permits me that apparently).

[werther]

To me, there are two realities in which to respond to the information of Dahr Jamail’s article. One has to do with general, the other with personal providence. On the general providence, I’ve read some of your posts being very activist (wili?), others holding a science based distance (crandles?).

On the topic of Jamail’s piece, my feeling is that it doesn’t make any difference what he’s writing or not. More important than what he’s writing vainly is what he’s actually doing…

There are two notions I’ve picked up through my life that support that feeling.

On the one hand, what I’ve seen and learned from our biosphere is that most processes can be described as ‘buffering trajectories’.
On the other hand, for myself and probably my fellow mankind is that ‘delusion’ does the same sort of thing in the conscious mind. Looking back, the message within the “Club of Rome”-report could have initiated the right response at a time when BAU-economy had enough versatility to support a transition to a carbon neutral community. Forty years lost and 3 billion people gained, with a hampering world economy because BAU has run into it’s predicted limits, I’m afraid there’s an even stronger tendency to retreat into the delusion.

As we post our laments, all signs point at the buffers in our biosphere failing. For the scientifically correct; I’ve not the training nor the intellect to prove that. At the same time, I think science will never be able to prove, the maze of interconnection is to intricate.

That leaves me with what I can do within personal providence. I could make my beloved ones very unhappy trying to change the delusion. I won’t. They’re doing what’s within their personal competence. But I did join a green political party. I don’t expect much of politics in general. That’s why I restrict myself to the local activities and do not aspire an official post. I enjoy the friendship within our green community and try to support community resilience within our neighbourhoods while BAU arrangements progressively fade.

The logical part of my mind knows all effort is useless, we’ve already crossed the line. But the heart still believes in compassion and artistic solace, even though it’s painful to witness what’s lost.

[wili]

I have fewer qualms about making my loved ones unhappy. 

But it is hard to wedge talk about our unfolding calamity in amongst discussion of the latest movie or minor political intrigue. It is as if Alaric and his Vandals were in the process of battering down the gates of the city and all anyone in the city cared to discuss was the latest gladiator games and who was sleeping with whom.