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JimD

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Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« on: September 02, 2013, 06:28:48 PM »
The Swiss Alpine glaciers' response to the global '2 °C air temperature target'
Nadine Salzmann et al 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044001

This paper models the effect on a selection of 101 Swiss glaciers to a 2C temperature rise using the IPCC scenario A1B.  This covers 50% of the glaciated area and 75% of the ice volume in Switzerland.

Under this scenario, which seems very optimistic to me, their conclusion is the following:
Quote
....and all glaciers have fully adjusted to the new climate conditions at around 2150. By this time and relative to the year 2000, the glacierized area and volume are both decreased to about 35% and 20%, respectively, and glacier-based runoff is reduced by about 70%.

Under this scenario the runoff from the glaciers will start to plummet circa 2050 with resulting very adverse impacts on agriculture and fresh water supplies.  Making the assumption here that a 2C rise is a bit on the low side it would seem reasonable that this dramatic fall off in water supplies will actually arrive sooner than 2050.  And that the eventual disappearance of Swiss glaciers will occur before 2150.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044001/article

Edited to change topic title.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2020, 06:46:24 PM by oren »
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein


JimD

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Re: Swiss Alpine Galaciers
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2013, 09:37:58 PM »
Holy crap SH!  That is awesome.

On the last one it completely dammed up the stream at the bottom.  If they don't dig it out (pretty hard to do that) it will form a lake and eventually overflow and potentially cause some kind of flood in the future.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Swiss Alpine Galaciers
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2013, 04:40:25 PM »
Climate Progress article on warming in the Alps and impact on glaciers.

Quote
Alps Warming At Double The Average Global Rate, New Study Confirms....Brunot said that at lower lying elevations under 1,000 meters there’s been around 40 percent less snow over the last 50 years....

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/12/16/3068161/alps-warming-rapidly-climate-change/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: Alpine Galaciers
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2013, 05:15:10 PM »
The hills are alive with the sound of rock slides......


nukefix

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Re: Alpine Galaciers
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2014, 05:09:57 PM »
Global Land Ice Measurement from Space is a great resource on glaciers globally:

http://www.glims.org/

Clare

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NZ's Glaciers
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2014, 09:34:08 PM »

cats

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2014, 12:52:37 AM »
Thought others might find this interesting - http://people.ee.ethz.ch/~glacier/acam.html

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2014, 12:51:41 AM »
That 'The hills are alive with the sound of rock slides......' post (several posts back) happened in 2012:  http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2012/05/22/the-remarkable-preonzo-landslide-in-switzerland-last-week/
I just noticed that December 17, 2013 post yesterday! :P
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

solartim27

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2014, 05:48:47 PM »
x post from CA Drought:
Drought causes mudslide from Mt Shasta glacier
http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-drought-glacier-melt-20140923-story.html
FNORD

BenB

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2016, 12:35:06 PM »
The figures are out for length changes of Alpine glaciers in 2015:

http://glaciology.ethz.ch/messnetz/glacierlist.html

Summary:

92 retreated, 4 advanced and 3 were stationary.

Unterer Grindelwald lost another 450 metres, which means that it has lost a few kilometres in the past few years. Many smaller glaciers also lost significant proportions of their length, but the main story is that almost all of the glaciers monitored are retreating, year after year after year.

For reference, here are the summaries for past years:

2014: Retreating 85, advancing 5, stationary 4
2013: Retreating 70, advancing 12, stationary 6
2012: Retreating 95, advancing 1, stationary 2
2011: Retreating 96, advancing 1, stationary 2
2010: Retreating 88, advancing 3, stationary 5

Note: total numbers of glaciers vary because not quite all glaciers are measured each year. The pattern of far more glaciers retreating than advancing goes back many decades, although it has been particularly strong in the last 20 years.

skanky

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2016, 12:11:45 PM »
Quote
More than 400 pieces of Alpine ice have been moved to a giant freezer - a first step in their journey to Antarctica.

The seemingly strange plan to send ice to the coldest place on Earth is part of a scientific mission to "rescue" some of the world's most endangered glacial ice.

Bubbles in old, deep glacial ice are frozen records of our past atmosphere.
Scientists say their purpose-built Antarctic ice bunker will keep these safe for future research.

Quote
"What we know for sure is that the ice will not be here in 50 or 100 years time - any glacier below 3,500m altitude will be gone by the end of the century," explained Jerome Chappellaz from France's National Centre for Scientific Research, one of the leaders of the project.

"[In the Alps], we're trying to recover ice cores from one of the glaciers that is in danger."
That glacier is at Col du Dome - just below the peak of Mont Blanc. It is one of two that the team has chosen to provide their frozen library with "reference ice" for regions where information on past climate and atmosphere is lacking.

More: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37245768

Hefaistos

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2017, 07:23:26 PM »
Desperation in the Alps, the snow season has 40 fewer days now, than in the 1970's. Ski resorts at both low and high altitudes saw snow arrive, on average, 12 days later and disappear 25 days earlier in 2015 than in 1970.
So, get the snow cannons out, let's increase the albedo a bit to save a few meters of glacier.
Don't know if the project's calculations are over-optimistic, "...calculations suggest that 4,000 snow machines running each year could grow the Morteratsch glacier by 800 meters within 20 years. The artificial-snow covering required at any given time is modest: a few centimeters thick and covering an area of about 0.5 sq. km at any given time. As the glacier thickens, the machines move to another patch of the glacier and start pumping out snow again."

https://qz.com/972621/to-save-its-famous-morteratsch-glacier-switzerland-is-testing-blowing-artificial-snow-to-prevent-glacier-melt/

bluesky

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2018, 09:29:35 PM »
A not well publicised but interesting paper on the Causes of Glaciers Melt Extremes (E. Thibert et al.) was issued in January 2018

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076333

Abstract
"Recent record‐breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long‐term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long‐term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer‐lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long‐wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture. "

bluesky

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2018, 09:43:10 PM »
Discussion and Conclusions of the same research paper:

"The top seven melt extremes have systematically occurred under high global radiation, with large turbulent heat fluxes taking part in the 2000s extremes (Figure 4a). Except for 1986, 1989, and 1990, which belong to low turbulent fluxes conditions of Cluster#2 and are explained by very high global radiation alone, melt extremes are related to uncommon high turbulent fluxes in association with strong global radiation (Cluster#3). Most melt extremes are associated with low winter accumulation, except 2003 and 2004 (Figure 4b). Long‐wave irradiance is not associated with extreme melt, except to some extent in 2003. This extreme summer melt, which is well simulated (0.13 mwe of model‐data discrepancy), is physically explained by the combination of the highest energy fluxes in long‐wave irradiance and sensible and latent heat over seven decades. The 2003 simulated SEB (Surface Energy Balance) has a deviation of +62 W m−2 from the seven‐decade average. This deviation comes from large deviations in latent heat (+17 W m−2), long‐wave irradiance (+15 W m−2), global radiation (+14 W m−2), and sensible heat (+11 W m−2). Deviations in sensible heat and long‐wave are linked to the +2.5°C temperature anomaly observed over the 2003 melting season. The deviation in global radiation is related to the low 2003 summer cloudiness (8% below average). The change in turbulent latent heat flux was due to much lower snow and ice sublimation conditions on this specific summer. Those conditions were slightly reversed into atmospheric moisture condensation conditions (positive latent heat, Figure S11c), providing additional heat for melt at the glacier surface. The 2003s melt extreme was nevertheless limited by the winter balance (Figure 4b; in the range of the seven‐decade average) that provided a significant amount of snow at the beginning of the season, thereby reducing melt by negative feedback from the albedo.
Summing up, our present results demonstrate that glacier melt follows extreme value statistics if nonstationarity is accounted for, detrending raw observations from two‐decade long‐term trends in averages that shift distributions. Around this long‐term trend, extreme melt anomalies are distributed along an upper‐bounded Weibull‐type extreme value statistic law. The mean seasonal energy fluxes associated with these melt intensities are reconstructed from a SEB model. Melt deviations and extremes are controlled by three independent drivers: (1) the winter balance determining the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season, (2) the global (short‐wave) radiation giving rise to the largest melt deviations and required for melt extreme occurrences, and (3) the latent heat flux that is controlled by air moisture. Sensible heat is involved in extremes but is a flux connected to latent heat (through wind speed) and global radiation (through air temperature). The long‐wave irradiance, varying only slightly and systematically anticorrelated with the net short‐wave balances, is not involved in melt extremes.
In light of Thibert et al. (2013), nonstationarity is explained mostly by the lengthening of the ablation season observed since the mid‐1980s and also by snow and ice melt intensification in the core of the melting seasons. Regarding the longer ablation seasons, positive feedback from the albedo change due to longer ice versus snow ablation is the main factor. Altitude lowering of the glacier surface accounts here for less than 16% (Thibert et al., 2013) of the trend, but some potential changes in ice albedo cannot be ruled out (Oerlemans et al., 2009). A remarkable finding is that the long‐term melt intensification is mainly driven by the latent heat flux increase (+17 W m−2) due to higher air moisture and less snow/ice sublimation, tending to cancel this systematic sink of energy in the SEB. The long‐wave irradiance rise (+5 W m−2) is the second factor in melt intensification. It is related to a larger forcing of +3.6 W m−2 per decade as assessed by SAFRAN data and consistent with the +2.5 W m−2 per decade reported at global scale for the 1990s and 2000s by Ohmura (2012) (Text S9). We expect the long‐term trend in melt attributable to the drift in latent heat and long‐wave fluxes to continue due to the projected rises in air moisture, greenhouse gases, and higher air temperatures. Projected earlier snowmelt (Musselman et al., 2017), as already reported for seasonal snow cover (Durand, Giraud, et al., 2009), and snow over the glacier accumulation area (Thibert et al., 2013) associated with the lengthening of the ablation season in autumn may increase the ice melt duration and enhance melt from albedo positive feedback. Under increased atmospheric water vapor (Santer et al., 2007), despite more‐or‐less unchanged relative humidity (Ingram, 2002), snow/ice sublimation together with the associated energy sink of latent heat will be much more limited, providing more energy for melt in the energy balance. More frequent record breaking of glacier melt values should be expected from these upward shifts in SEB averages. Whether future record breakings constitute extreme deviations from averages could be inferred analyzing trends and carrying out GEV analyses. Moreover, potential changes in melt extreme properties cannot be ruled out as already established for temperatures (Schär et al., 2004). For this, a peak over threshold model (Katz et al., 2002) should be tested in place of the GEV approach which supposes steady state for extremes.


ReverendMilkbone

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2018, 07:48:05 PM »
Google Earth Engine images of Alps Glaciers

Pasterze Glacier

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse/#v=47.0844,12.7274,11.718,latLng&t=3.24

Rhone Glacier on right, two smaller ones on left

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse/#v=46.59477,8.2857,10.61,latLng&t=1.82

Stephan

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2018, 07:36:13 PM »
Here is a link to foto-webcam.eu of the Kleinfleißkees, Austria. You can switch from year to year from 2014 to 2018 to see the changes.
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/kleinfleisskees/2014/08/23/0900
The Goldbergkees, Austria is decreasing quite fast from 2016 to 2018:
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/goldbergkees/2016/08/23/0900.
The famous Pasterze is also melting. Use the year-to-year button to see it grow (backwards) or shrink (forward): https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freiwandeck/2018/08/24/0700
« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 07:46:01 PM by Stephan »
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

bluesky

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2018, 11:32:41 PM »
According to "Parc National des Ecrins" website, "glacier Blanc" the largest glacier of the Southern French Alps, going down on the North slope of the "Barre des Ecrins" (4100 m), has had another difficult summer, with a loss of 1.34m of water equivalent from the latest SMB measurement in mid October. Despite very high amount snow fall during 2017/18 winter, (mainly below 3000m, while above it was closer to normal level), the near record hot summer more than offset the winter accumulation with a total melting of 2.91m of water equivalent, second worst year after 2003 (3.51m) and more than 2015 (-2.79m) and 2017 (-2.70m). Overall the glacier has lost close to 13 meters of water equivalent since 2002.

The glacier front experienced a record retreat (-137 meters),  however this is partly due to specific glacier configuration, on average the glacier has been retreating by 45 meters a year over the past 10 years.


First picture: the striking difference of the glacier between 1995 and 2018

Second: chart of surfalce mass balance since 2000




vox_mundi

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2018, 07:05:33 PM »
Julien Seguinot et al. Modelling last glacial cycle ice dynamics in the Alps, The Cryosphere (2018)


http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3265-2018

An international research team used a computer model to reconstruct the history of glaciation in the Alps, visualising it in a two-minute computer animation. The simulation aims to enable a better understanding of the mechanisms of glaciation.

The scientists conducted simulations with three different sets of paleo-climate data, as well as two different precipitation scenarios. Only one of the climate data sets delivered results that match the geological evidence left behind by the glaciers in rock and sediment. The results of this simulation indicate that Alpine glaciers advanced and retreated more often than previously thought. For a long time, glaciologists assumed a minimum of four glaciations. Since the 1980s, however, this low figure has often been called into question. The new simulation appears to support the theory of more frequent glaciations, showing that some Alpine glaciers may have advanced and retreated more than 10 times during the last 120,000 years.

Using a detailed analysis of another simulation that charts the glaciation of the last 120,000 years down to the kilometre, the researchers conclude that during peak glaciation, the ice may have been much thicker than previously thought: in the upper Rhône Valley, for example, it may have been up to 800 metres thicker.

Advance and retreat of the Alpine glaciers during the last glacial cycle. Credit: Julien Seguinot


https://av.tib.eu/media/35164
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wdmn

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2019, 04:15:46 PM »
Alpine glaciers: Another decade of loss


Preliminary data reported from the reference glaciers of the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) in 2018 from Argentina, Austria, China, France, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Norway, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland and United States indicate that 2018 will be the 30th consecutive year of significant negative annual balance (> -200mm); with a mean balance of -1247 mm for the 25 reporting reference glaciers, with only one glacier reporting a positive mass balance (WGMS, 2018).



http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/03/alpine-glaciers-another-decade-of-loss/

Ajpope85

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2019, 03:33:23 PM »
Chile's Southern Patagonia Ice Field ruptured by climate change: scientists

Quote
(Reuters) - Chile’s 12,000 square kilometer (4,633 square mile) Southern Patagonia Ice Field split in two and is likely to continue to fracture amid climate change, according to a team of Chilean scientists who were in the region in March.

...

The chunk of ice that split off from the main glacier was estimated at 208 square kilometers (80.3 square miles), a relatively small part of the ice field.


https://in.reuters.com/article/us-chile-environment-ice-field/chiles-southern-patagonia-ice-field-ruptured-by-climate-change-scientists-idINKCN1ST2Q2

vox_mundi

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2019, 04:57:21 PM »
Gloomy Forecast for the Aletsch Glacier
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-gloomy-aletsch-glacier.html

The largest glacier in the Alps is visibly suffering the effects of global warming. ETH researchers have now calculated how much of the Aletsch Glacier will still be visible by the end of the century. In the worst-case scenario, a couple of patches of ice will be all that remains.

As the largest ice flow in the Alps, the Great Aletsch Glacier is a major tourism draw in the Swiss region of Upper Valais, second only to the Matterhorn. In the summer, its meltwater plays a key role in providing sufficient water to the dry Rhone valley.

Yet as the climate becomes ever warmer, the massive glacier is suffering just as much as the Matterhorn, which is beginning to crumble. The Aletsch Glacier's tongue has receded by about one kilometer since the year 2000, and scientists predict this trend will continue over the coming years. But how will things look for the Great Aletsch Glacier by the end of the century? How much of it will still be visible from, say, the nearby Eggishorn or the Jungfraujoch?

If things go badly, not much.





Assuming an unfavorable (but unfortunately fully realistic) scenario, in which Switzerland's climate warms up by the end of the century to four to eight degrees hotter than the 1960–1990 reference period, in 2100, all that will remain of what was once the largest glacier in the Alps will be a couple of measly patches of ice. "And Konkordiaplatz, which is directly below Jungfraujoch and still covered in about 800 meters of ice, will be completely ice-free," Jouvet adds.

Even in a theoretical scenario in which the climate remains the same as it has for the past 30 years, the glacier's ice volume will still decrease by more than a third by the end of the century. And if the climate remains as it has for the past 10 years, as much as half the ice volume will be lost. "These numbers confirm that the glacier is no longer in equilibrium with the climate," Huss explains.

Open Access: Guillaume Jouvet et al. Future retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier, Journal of Glaciology (2019)
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 05:05:57 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2019, 08:30:36 PM »
Hundreds gather in Switzerland to hold funeral for disappearing glacier lost to global warming
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/462534-hundreds-gather-in-switzerland-to-hold-funeral-for-disappearing
Quote
CNN reports the Pizol glacier in the Glarus Alps has lost roughly 80 to 90 percent of its volume since 2006, according to Matthias Huss, a glacier specialist at ETH Zurich university.

Huss told the news outlet there are only 26,000 square meters of ice left in the glacier and it will be the first glacier in the country to be taken off the Swiss glacier surveillance network.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2019, 09:33:20 PM »
Mont Blanc glacier in danger of collapse, experts warn
Italian mayor orders roads closed and homes evacuated over fears ice will break away
Quote
Italian authorities have closed off roads and evacuated homes after experts warned that a portion of a Mont Blanc glacier is at risk of collapse.

Stefano Miserocchi, the mayor of the town of Courmayeur, said “public safety is a priority” after experts from the Fondazione Montagna Sicura (Safe Mountains Foundation) in the Aosta Valley said up to 250,000 cubic metres of ice was in danger of sliding off the Planpincieux glacier on the Grandes Jorasses peak.

“This phenomenon once again testifies that the mountain is in a phase of strong change due to climatic factors, therefore it is particularly vulnerable,” Miserocchi said in a statement. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/mont-blanc-glacier-in-danger-of-collapse-experts-warn
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2019, 11:47:01 PM »
Measuring glacial movements in-situ is a challenging, but necessary task to model glaciers and predict their future evolution. However, installing GPS stations on ice can be dangerous and expensive when not impossible in the presence of large crevasses. In this project, the ASL develops UAVs for dropping and recovering lightweight GPS stations over inaccessible glaciers to record the ice flow motion. This video shows the results of first tests performed at Gorner glacier, Switzerland, in July 2019.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluesky

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2019, 01:48:36 AM »
Glacier Blanc, longest glacier in the Ecrins Mountain range (French Alps) experienced a record ice loss in 2019, beating the previous 2003 exceptional record during the famous 2003 heat wave. The glacier lost 2.10 meters thickness on average, astonishing for this high altitude glacier starting on the North face of the Ecrins summit at 4000 meters

http://www.ecrins-parcnational.fr/actualite/glacier-blanc-perte-record-20-ans-mesures

The glacier lost 15 meters of thickness since 2001



wdmn

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2019, 02:27:22 AM »
Swiss glaciers shrink by 10% in five years
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/heatwaves_swiss-glaciers-shrink-by-10--in-five-years/45298912

"Glacier melt rates reached record levels during the summer heatwaves of 2019. This led to another year of major losses of ice volume, according to the cryospheric commission of the Swiss Academy of Sciences. Switzerland’s glaciers have thus shrunk by 10% over the past five years."


gerontocrat

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #27 on: May 21, 2020, 07:20:17 PM »
A study on correlation between temperature and snowline retreat.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085742

Snow Moving to Higher Elevations: Analyzing Three Decades of Snowline Dynamics in the Alps
Quote
Abstract
In the Alps, snow cover dynamics can be monitored using Earth observation (EO). However, low revisit frequency and cloud cover pose a challenge to long‐term time series analysis using high‐spatial‐resolution EO images. In this study, we applied the random forest regression to model regional snowline elevations (RSE). In this manner, daily snowline dynamics and their long‐term trends can be derived, despite the aforementioned challenges. Of the six investigated Alpine catchments between 1984 and 2018, a significant increasing trend of RSEs are shown in four catchments in the early ablation seasons (between 5.38 ± 2.64 and 11.29 ± 4.79 m·a‐1), and five catchments in the middle ablation seasons (between 4.17 ± 2.62 and 8.76 ± 4.42 m·a‐1). On average, the random forest regression models can explain 75% of the RSE variations. Furthermore, air temperature was found influential in snow persistence especially during middle and late ablation seasons.

Plain Language Summary
Snow cover in mountainous regions has been changing worldwide due to climate change in the past few decades. Most existing studies focus on snow cover areal variations in the latitudinal‐longitudinal direction, while the understanding of snow cover dynamics in the altitudinal direction is limited. This study aims to provide a new method to derive snowline dynamics in the Alps, using a machine learning technique. The results show that there has been a significantly hastened snowline recession during the period 1984−2018 within most of the investigated areas. These results could help to identify climate sensitivity areas at a local scale, where the snowline thereof retreats increasingly faster. We found a high correlation between monthly regional snowline elevation anomalies and monthly air temperature anomalies especially during the middle and late ablation seasons. In the future, the cooperation between remote sensing scientists and environmental modelers is highly desired, not only to reduce the uncertainties in snowline modelling, but also to enhance our knowledge of climate‐snowline‐runoff interactions at regional scales and hence develop effective adaptation‐strategies.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 07:25:31 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #28 on: June 25, 2020, 05:39:45 PM »
Hot off the Press.... read all about it.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16818-0?utm_source=miragenews&utm_medium=miragenews&utm_campaign=news#Abs1

Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century
Quote
Abstract
Mountain glaciers are known to be strongly affected by global climate change. Here we compute temporally consistent changes in glacier area, surface elevation and ice mass over the entire European Alps between 2000 and 2014. We apply remote sensing techniques on an extensive database of optical and radar imagery covering 93% of the total Alpine glacier volume. Our results reveal rapid glacier retreat across the Alps (−39 km² a−1) with regionally variable ice thickness changes (−0.5 to −0.9 m a−1). The strongest downwasting is observed in the Swiss Glarus and Lepontine Alps with specific mass change rates up to −1.03 m.w.e. a−1. For the entire Alps a mass loss of 1.3 ± 0.2 Gt a−1 (2000–2014) is estimated. Compared to previous studies, our estimated mass changes are similar for the central Alps, but less negative for the lower mountain ranges. These observations provide important information for future research on various socio-economic impacts like water resource management, risk assessments and tourism.

Introduction
Substantial retreat and downwasting of mountain glaciers due to global warming have been observed worldwide1. In the European Alps, glaciers have been retreating since the Little Ice Age (~1850)2,3,4 and future ice volumes are predicted to be largely reduced5,6,7. During previous decades, accelerated glacier shrinkage has been reported8,9,10. Mass-change rates were close to −1 m.w.e. a−1 during the first 5 years of the 21st century11. The ongoing reduction of glacier volume raises challenges for water supply during dry periods, civil security, and tourism12.

Mountain regions are frequently described as “water towers”13. Seasonal shifts in glacier meltwater discharge can have widespread impact on runoff during dry periods14,15,16. In the Alps, meltwater contributes to late-summer runoff when seasonal snow cover is minimal17. During 1908–2008 glacier discharge contributed ~20% to August runoff of the Rhone and Po rivers17. However, maximum runoff from glacier long-term storage (“peak water”) has already been or will be reached in the coming decades14.

On a regional scale, changes in seasonal runoff affect the production of renewable energy in Alpine countries and require adaptive strategies for hydropower18. As another important economy, summer tourism partly relies on the scenery of the glacierized Alpine landscape. Shrinking glaciers affect tourism by changing the shape of the landscape and frequency of natural hazards19......

Results
Alpine-wide glacier shrinkage and downwasting

Highly negative mean elevation changes (< −0.6 m a−1, Fig. 1a) are recorded for both larger subregions in the Western (regions 01–06) and Eastern Alps (regions 07–10) during 2000–2014 (Fig. 2 and Table 1). Balanced conditions (elevation change ~0 m a−1) are observed above ~3500 m a.s.l. for the Graian, Pennine, and Bernese Alps with no region having significantly positive values even at highest glacier elevations. In many regions, change rates are negative throughout all altitudes, indicating the loss of former accumulation areas and thinning over the entire glacier. Particularly, areas below ~2000 m a.s.l. experience average regional surface lowering of up to 5 m a−1 in the Graian, Bernese, and Glarus Alps. Glacier-specific change rates can be even more negative (e.g., < −8 m a−1 at terminus of Grosser Aletsch, Bernese Alps) caused by the complete downwasting of frontal areas during the observation period. Area (Fig. 1b) and mass change (Fig. 1c) are controlled by the regionally different extents of glaciers. The highest absolute area reductions are found in the Bernese, Pennine, and Graian Alps which include the largest glacier areas of the Alps. The overall retreat is ~39 ± 9 km² a−1, corresponding to an area loss rate of ~1.8% a−1 between 2000 and 2014

We demonstrate the vulnerability to an imminent glacier vanishing by imposing the present mass-change rates (2000–2014) on total estimated ice volumes28 for each region. Figure 1d shows the glacier volume (~130 km³) at beginning and the proportion of ice that would survive under current regional mass-change rates (−1.0 to −2.3% a−1) over the course of the 21st century. This approach does not consider dynamic adjustments nor climate projections or any other factors which can only be achieved by respective modeling attempts6. Nevertheless, our extrapolated values match well with model projections6 and show that the lower Alpine mountain ranges would be almost ice-free by the end of this century. The remaining glacier volume of the entire Alps would be approximately one-third compared with the volume at beginning of the 21st century. Larger amounts of ice (>10 km³) would only be left in the Pennine and Bernese Alps whereas the Dauphiné, Glarus, and Lepontine Alps are prone to be nearly ice-free within this century.
__________________________________________________________________
PS: You have to click on the images, and then again to get full page, and yet again to get fullsize.
(even though I have reduced their original size)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #29 on: July 06, 2020, 04:18:57 AM »
Algae Turns Italian Alps Pink, Prompting Concerns Over Melting
https://theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/06/algae-turns-italian-alps-pink-prompting-concerns-over-melting

Scientists in Italy are investigating the mysterious appearance of pink glacial ice in the Alps, caused by algae that accelerate the effects of climate change.

There is debate about where the algae come from, but Biagio Di Mauro of Italy’s National Research Council said the pink snow observed on parts of the Presena glacier is likely caused by the same plant found in Greenland.

The plant, known as Ancylonema nordenskioeldii, is present in Greenland’s so-called Dark Zone, where the ice is also melting.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #30 on: August 07, 2020, 10:15:02 AM »
Mont Blanc glacier in danger of collapse, experts warn
Italian mayor orders roads closed and homes evacuated over fears ice will break away
Quote
Italian authorities have closed off roads and evacuated homes after experts warned that a portion of a Mont Blanc glacier is at risk of collapse.

Stefano Miserocchi, the mayor of the town of Courmayeur, said “public safety is a priority” after experts from the Fondazione Montagna Sicura (Safe Mountains Foundation) in the Aosta Valley said up to 250,000 cubic metres of ice was in danger of sliding off the Planpincieux glacier on the Grandes Jorasses peak.

“This phenomenon once again testifies that the mountain is in a phase of strong change due to climatic factors, therefore it is particularly vulnerable,” Miserocchi said in a statement. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/mont-blanc-glacier-in-danger-of-collapse-experts-warn

It did not happen last year, but now they are evacuating again.
A time-lapse video compressed to six seconds:

Video from a helicopter:

KiwiGriff

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #31 on: August 08, 2020, 08:37:12 PM »
Study on NZ extreme Glacier loss finds AGW to blame.

Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass lossLauren J. Vargo1,2 ✉, Brian M. Anderson1, Ruzica Dadić1, Huw J. Horgan 1,2, Andrew N. Mackintosh3, Andrew D. King 4 and Andrew M. Lorrey5
Quote
Glaciers are unique indicators of climate change. While recent global-scale glacier decline has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing, direct links between human-induced climate warming and extreme glacier mass-loss years have not been documented. Here we apply event attribution methods to document this at the regional scale, targeting the highest mass-loss years (2011 and 2018) across New Zealand’s Southern Alps. Glacier mass balance is simulated using temperature and precipitation from multiple climate model ensembles. We estimate extreme mass loss was at least six times (2011) and ten times (2018) (>90% confidence) more likely to occur with anthropogenic forcing than without. This increased likelihood is driven by present-day temperatures ~1.0 °C above the pre-industrial average, confirming a connection between anthropogenic emissions and high annual ice loss. These results suggest that as warming and extreme heat events continue and intensify, there will be an increas-ingly visible human fingerprint on extreme glacier mass-loss years in the coming decades.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0849-2
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 09:39:20 PM by KiwiGriff »
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NotaDenier

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Re: Alpine Glaciers
« Reply #32 on: August 09, 2020, 02:36:57 PM »
Mt Blanc Glacier collapse evacuations
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/evacuation-mont-blanc-glacier-collapse-scli-intl/index.html

Oren/Neven should this be labeled the Alps thread? We I read alpine I think alpine environment which is generic across mt ranges. I didn’t think the actual alps. But, I am a American who has never traveled to Europe and may be ignorant of how the Alps are referred to there.

Thank you Oren.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2020, 09:08:52 PM by NotaDenier »

oren

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #33 on: August 09, 2020, 06:46:51 PM »
Added clarification to thread  title.

Stephan

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #34 on: August 13, 2020, 06:59:41 PM »
The Turtmanngletscher in Wallis (Switzerland) has recently lost 600 m of its length.
https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/klima-gletscherabbrueche-in-den-alpen-202008135095162
(in German)
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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2020, 05:12:25 PM »
Just a few nice self-made ones as long as there's anything nice to post about alpine glaciers:

igs

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2020, 05:13:23 PM »
Round two of the same:

igs

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #37 on: August 19, 2020, 05:14:42 PM »
Round three of the same:

nanning

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #38 on: August 20, 2020, 05:32:42 AM »
Beautiful photo's igs.
From what time frame are these? Are the yellowish/blueish ones as old as I think they are?
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igs

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #39 on: August 20, 2020, 06:48:21 PM »
The yellowish have been taken around late 1990s the rest spread over the period from 2002-2020

There are many new especially from this year but i thought they should be really glacier and ice focused.


kassy

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #40 on: September 21, 2021, 02:25:01 PM »
As Italy’s Glaciers Recede, a Stunning World of Ice Is Being Lost

...

In this photo essay, Avantaggiato focuses on the Forni Glacier, located between 8,500 and 12,000 feet in northeastern Italy. No other mountain range in the world has been as well studied for so long as the Alps — the Forni Glacier and nearby ice masses in Stelvio National Park have been the subject of more than a century of research. Relying on measurements and photographs dating back to the mid-19th century, scientists know that the Forni Glacier — the largest valley glacier in Italy — has retreated 3.3 kilometers (2 miles) since the peak of its advance around 1860. During that time, the total area of the Forni glacier has shrunk by nearly half.

The future looks even bleaker. With glacial melt in the Alps now rapidly accelerating, scientists forecast that the Forni Glacier will likely retain only 20 percent of its current volume by 2050 and could disappear altogether by the end of the century. A similar fate awaits glaciers throughout Europe, with half of the 4,000 glaciers in the Alps expected to disappear by 2050 and two-thirds expected to have lost all their ice by 2100, even if greenhouse gas emissions are cut to zero, according to a 2019 study.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/italian-alps-photo-essay
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TheWanderingSloth

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #41 on: July 04, 2022, 04:42:13 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/03/deaths-glacier-breaks-marmolada-mountain-italy

It's the first time I post something in the forum, but this one is a bit personal.
I used to go to visit the Marmolada every year during my childhood, with my family we would go to Pian dei Fiacconi, a magical place where even children could touch the glacier.
I saw the glacier retreating year after year, the ice becoming every time more sick and dirt.
And now this.
Very sad today.

PS. I apologize if my English sounds awful, it's not my native language.

oren

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #42 on: July 04, 2022, 05:15:21 PM »
Welcome! And your English is very good, don't worry.

gerontocrat

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #43 on: July 04, 2022, 05:28:36 PM »
As Italy’s Glaciers Recede, a Stunning World of Ice Is Being Lost

Forni Glacier — the largest valley glacier in Italy — has retreated 3.3 kilometers (2 miles) since the peak of its advance around 1860. During that time, the total area of the Forni glacier has shrunk by nearly half.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/italian-alps-photo-essay
A picture is worth a thousand words,,

click image to enlarge, click maximise for full-size
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paolo

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #44 on: July 04, 2022, 06:04:41 PM »
For TWS,
a photo from the early 1900s, as it was and as it will NEVER be again.
In 15 years (maximum 20) this photo could be used for the tombstone
"Here was the glacier of the queen of the dolomites".

an angry South Tyrolean >:( >:(

click to enlarge

paolo

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #45 on: July 05, 2022, 07:18:33 PM »
With old photos found on the Internet I made two animations related to the Marmolada glacier (the first one with images with a more global view and over a long period of time, the second one focused on a sector of the glacier).

I limited myself to a rough work of alignment of the crests to allow you to have immediate points of repercussion.

There are no more recent photos than the 2004, but it's a good thing, I can't stand to see it.
I add a comparison of two photos, found on the internet

Click to animate

paolo

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2022, 07:32:24 PM »
Some pictures of the north side (the glacier, no recent pictures, I don't like the picture of its agony, the second photo is already limited, the glacier is already in retreat but it still has a certain allure) and the very beautiful south side

Click to enlarge (twice for maximum enlargement of the last three photos)
« Last Edit: July 05, 2022, 07:50:29 PM by paolo »

paolo

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #47 on: July 05, 2022, 07:43:34 PM »
Finally, a view of the two sides of the Marmolada

Click to enlarge (twice for maximum enlargement)

oren

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #48 on: July 05, 2022, 09:02:58 PM »
Thanks, Paolo. Sad.

gerontocrat

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Re: Alpine Glaciers / Europe
« Reply #49 on: July 26, 2022, 01:41:14 PM »
Glaciers die; even at 3,500 metres ASL.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/26/melting-alps-theodul-glacier-switzerland-italy-border-shifts
Melting glacier in Alps shifts border between Switzerland and Italy

Theodul Glacier’s retreat means refuge near Testa Grigia peak is split between two countries



When the refuge was built in 1984, it was entirely in Italian territory, but now two-thirds of the lodge is technically in southern Switzerland. Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images
Quote
A melting glacier in the Alps has shifted the border between Switzerland and Italy, putting the location of an Italian mountain lodge in dispute.

The borderline runs along a drainage divide – the point at which meltwater will run down either side of the mountain towards one country or the other.

But the Theodul Glacier’s retreat means the watershed has crept towards the Rifugio Guide del Cervino, a refuge for visitors near the 3,480-metre (11,417ft) Testa Grigia peak – and it is gradually sweeping underneath the building.

On a recent visit to the refuge’s restaurant, Frederic, a 59-year-old tourist, asked: “So – are we in Switzerland?”

It was a question worth asking. The answer has been the subject of diplomatic negotiations that started in 2018 and concluded with a compromise last year, but the details remain secret.

When the refuge was built on a rocky outcrop in 1984, its 40 beds and long wooden tables were entirely in Italian territory. But now two-thirds of the lodge, including most of the beds and the restaurant, is technically perched in southern Switzerland.

The issue has come to the fore because the area, which relies on tourism, is located at the top of one of the world’s largest ski resorts, with a major new development including a cable car station being constructed a few metres away.

An agreement was hammered out in Florence in November 2021 but the outcome will only be revealed once it is rubber-stamped by the Swiss government, which will not happen before 2023.

“We agreed to split the difference,” said Alain Wicht, the chief border official at Switzerland’s national mapping agency Swisstopo.

His job includes looking after the 7,000 boundary markers along landlocked Switzerland’s 1,200-mile (1,935km) border with Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Liechtenstein.

Wicht attended the negotiations, where both parties made concessions to find a solution. “Even if neither side came out winners, at least nobody lost”, he said.

Where the Italian-Swiss border traverses Alpine glaciers, the frontier follows the watershed line. But the Theodul Glacier lost almost a quarter of its mass between 1973 and 2010. That exposed the rock underneath to the ice, altering the drainage divide and forcing the two neighbours to redraw around a 100-metre-long stretch of their border.

Wicht said such adjustments were frequent and were generally settled by comparing readings by surveyors from the border countries, without getting politicians involved.

“We are squabbling over territory that isn’t worth much,” he said. But he added that this “is the only place where we suddenly had a building involved”, giving “economic value” to the land.

His Italian counterparts declined to comment “due to the complex international situation”.

Jean-Philippe Amstein, a former Swisstopo chief, said such disputes were typically resolved by exchanging parcels of land of equivalent surface area and value. In this case, “Switzerland is not interested in obtaining a piece of glacier”, he said, and “the Italians are unable to compensate for the loss of Swiss surface area”.

While the outcome remains secret, the refuge’s caretaker, 51-year-old Lucio Trucco, has been told it will stay on Italian soil. “The refuge remains Italian because we have always been Italian,” he said. “The menu is Italian, the wine is Italian, and the taxes are Italian.”

The years of negotiation have delayed the refuge’s renovation – the villages either side of the border have not been able to issue a building permit. The works will therefore not be completed in time for the scheduled opening of a new cable car up the Italian side of the Klein Matterhorn mountain in late 2023. The slopes are only accessible from the Swiss ski resort of Zermatt.

While some mid-altitude resorts are preparing for the end of Alpine skiing due to global heating, skiing is possible throughout the summer on the Zermatt-Cervinia slopes, even if such activities contribute to the glacier’s retreat.

“That’s why we have to enhance the area here, because it will surely be the last one to die,” said Trucco.


For now, on Swisstopo’s maps, the solid pink band of the Swiss border remains a dashed line as it passes the refuge.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)