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Author Topic: The 2019/2020 freezing season  (Read 174752 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1050 on: March 14, 2020, 11:53:28 AM »
<snip>

I think the opposite will occur.  During the last recession, the decrease in travel and consumption resulted in CO2 emissions falling 11%.    While some claim that the flattening of the temperature curve during this timeframe was just noise in the data, the timing corresponds with the global recession, and the sharp increase thereafter with the global expansion. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8714
Even if CO2 emissions fall, CO2 ppm in the atmosphere will increase, but by less.
Add to that the real possibility that parts of the land and ocean carbon sinks are failing, so less CO2 emissions at least partially offset by lower CO2 sequesteration.

Disagree.

CO2 emmissions falling wouldn't cause that kind of pause.  You still have approximately the same  CO2 concentration, and small twitches of a few PPM aren't going to trigger dramatic year over year variations in climate.  The differences in forcing are too small.

It would have to be something else, quite probably unrelated to the change in fossil fuel consumption.  I think the first place I would look would be ENSO, and after that, precipitation patterns.
A fall in CO2 emissions merely reduces the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 ppm.
Add to that the real possibility that parts of the land and ocean carbon sinks are beginning to fail, meaning less of the CO2 emissions are sequestered.

Arctic Sea Ice is on a downward path to oblivion, the only question is how steep is that path.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1051 on: March 14, 2020, 02:21:12 PM »
I agree with jdallen. Even a significant fall in Co2 emissions won't change anything, as Co2's "half-life" is very long. Aerosols and the cloud-effect from contrails will dissipate in a few days and cause warming immediately as was proven after 9/11.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1052 on: March 14, 2020, 02:56:07 PM »
So we also now have 2, two, "2020 Melting Season" threads.

Just been reading a novel with old military history stuff - including the term "going off half-cocked".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1053 on: March 14, 2020, 03:42:24 PM »
Svalbard, March 13th:
The last time there was this much sea ice around Svalbard on this day of the year was 1998, with 532,969 sq km. That was the 3rd highest in our 54 year record, and this year is only exceeded by, in ascending order, 1989, 1969, 1979, 1977, 1998, 1997 and 1978

This article states that the Barents Sea has become cooler because the water coming in with the Norwegian Atlantic current, which is the continuation of the Gulf Stream, has been cooler.

Trend has been upwards but in the last 5 years have been cooler.

Researcher Randi Ingvaldsen puts it down to natural variation.

Ocean temperatures in the Barents Sea vary naturally. That is, the temperatures go up and down over time.

- It is well known that the Barents Sea has become much warmer over the last 40 years. But in recent years we have seen a decline, and that is part of natural fluctuations that will always be present

- This does not change that a continuous global temperature rise raises the temperature curve, so that both the highest and the lowest temperatures are generally higher than before.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1054 on: March 14, 2020, 06:21:34 PM »
Quote
This article states that the Barents Sea has become cooler
An interesting article, do you think it refers to surface temperature or an average over depth? It says temperatures but not which.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 06:30:18 PM by uniquorn »

kassy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1055 on: March 14, 2020, 06:32:38 PM »
The Norwegian Current (also known as the Norwegian Coastal Current) is a water current that flows northeasterly along the Atlantic coast of Norway at depths of between 50 and 100 metres through the Barents Sea Opening into the Barents Sea.

So between 50 and 100 m and up i guess.
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grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1056 on: March 14, 2020, 06:44:36 PM »
It's a bit too cloudy to tell but there doesn't appear to be much sign of refreeze yet on the open leads east of Wrangel Island.
Chukchi Sea, https://go.nasa.gov/3aMQDfY (contrast),mar14, uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, feb13 inset.
click for full resolution

It has been quite warm in this area the last day (and will stay warm too). It's even possible we might see some surface melt during the day.


blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1057 on: March 14, 2020, 07:04:53 PM »
Speaking of melting, the 2020 melting season thread is open BTW.

Shouldn't we all switch there now?

Link >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.0.html

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1058 on: March 14, 2020, 07:19:56 PM »
Speaking of melting, the 2020 melting season thread is open BTW.

Shouldn't we all switch there now?

Link >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.0.html

Feels a bit early still, and the thread hasn't been made a sticky, but I guess I will change if I post about melting.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1059 on: March 14, 2020, 07:40:57 PM »
Alright! :)

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1060 on: March 14, 2020, 09:25:10 PM »

So between 50 and 100 m and up i guess.

The article didnt say at what depth but I'd agree with you Kassy that it is an average of depths between 50m and 200m.

I'm not a big fan of answers like "natural variabilty".

I expect the current very positive AO is working to keep the sea surface temperatures cool but would this be seen at 50m to 200m depth ?

Then there is the AMOC. Is this an indication of a weakened AMOC and transport of Atlantic water at these high lattitudes ?

Another possibility is this a response to shifting and melting of pack ice towards the Atlantic side. So much ice melted out especially in the summer of 2016. Maybe this left a legacy at depth and started this recent downward trend? 

oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1061 on: March 14, 2020, 10:26:56 PM »
Note to Neven: please make the new melting season thread sticky. Looking at extent and area numbers, the freezing season is over.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1062 on: March 14, 2020, 11:40:06 PM »

So between 50 and 100 m and up i guess.

The article didnt say at what depth but I'd agree with you Kassy that it is an average of depths between 50m and 200m.

I'm not a big fan of answers like "natural variabilty".

I expect the current very positive AO is working to keep the sea surface temperatures cool but would this be seen at 50m to 200m depth ?

Then there is the AMOC. Is this an indication of a weakened AMOC and transport of Atlantic water at these high lattitudes ?

Another possibility is this a response to shifting and melting of pack ice towards the Atlantic side. So much ice melted out especially in the summer of 2016. Maybe this left a legacy at depth and started this recent downward trend?
I was immediately thinking about the slowdown of the AMOC as well. Could it also be that the meltwater from Greenland is cooling the Atlantic water down that's flowing into the Greenland and Barents sea?
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kassy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1063 on: March 15, 2020, 06:43:59 PM »
The article has a graph showing this is a trend over the last 5 years or so. I guess we will have to settle for natural variability any way. Basically it just means the Barents ice edge moves further south.

The amount of heat flowing into the Barents Sea affects how much of the sea area is covered by ice. The ice edge has moved south since 2016.

So this is a relatively slow effect and not cause by anything happening now.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1064 on: March 16, 2020, 04:58:02 AM »
Another drop today in extent, now around 200K below the max back a week ago.

I think we've hit max, and the melt season has started.  Gerontocrat thinks so too....
This space for Rent.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1065 on: March 19, 2020, 05:10:38 AM »
With today's drop of -65,947 km2 (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP-JAXA ASI), I think it is save to say that the 2019/2020 freezing season is over.

Today's extent (March 18th) is  238,079 km2 under the max of 14,447,641 km2 that happened on March 3rd.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1066 on: March 19, 2020, 09:32:40 AM »
Thanks Juan.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1067 on: March 19, 2020, 12:09:04 PM »
Accepting that the max is over, according to the NSIDC extent trailing 5 day mean data, the max of 15.05 million km2 was reached on March 5th.

This is the 11th lowest max in the series going back to 1979.

In order of lowest:

2017
2018
2016
2015
2011
2006
2007
2019
2005
2014
2020

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1068 on: March 19, 2020, 01:21:01 PM »
Accepting that the max is over, according to the NSIDC extent trailing 5 day mean data, the max of 15.05 million km2 was reached on March 5th.
I called it on March 9. Not too bad for an amateur like me...  ;D
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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1069 on: March 19, 2020, 06:19:04 PM »
Interesting that 2012 was not in the 10 lowest maxes and then produced the lowest minimum !

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1070 on: March 19, 2020, 10:18:37 PM »
Interesting that 2012 was not in the 10 lowest maxes and then produced the lowest minimum !

And also that 2013 was not in the top ten either. Only 6 months or so earlier and ice was at its lowest extent on record.

However I am not surprised that 2017 had the lowest max. Of all the satellite images of the Arctic  since then,  I still consider the ice was in its worst condition in late Summer 2016. It was very spread out and full of holes. The 2016/2017 freezing season then was very slow to start and temperatures remained relatively mild over the Arctic Basin.