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misfratz

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Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 13, 2019, 06:56:41 PM »
I noticed that the Northern Sea Route was still open and that I didn't know how unusual this was.

Does anyone have a record of how long the Northern Sea Route has been open this year, compared to previous years?

I know that, of course, there would be years when it didn't open at all, but my guess is that it will be opening earlier and closing later over time, and I wondered whether anyone had done an analysis to show that. Or does one of the Arctic Science Institutes declare it open/closed each year? Is there a Russian Department of Arctic Transport that might do the same?

I have found the Northern Sea Route Administration, who declared summer navigation in the Northern Sea Route started on June 10th this year, but this seems to relate to a specific port, rather than the route as a whole.

Any contributions welcome.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2019, 08:09:01 PM »
I have a series of NSR AMSR2 videos, albeit there is not yet one for 2019

You could start here, and use your own criterion for "open"?



Plus one in a different format for 2012:




Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

charles_oil

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2019, 08:12:35 PM »


I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...


https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-162.8/centery:68.5/zoom:2


as an example

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2019, 09:19:37 PM »
I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-162.8/centery:68.5/zoom:2

as an example
Not any more. The ships have changed & are changing...

There is already a fleet of LNG tankers with considerable ice-breaking capability and it is growing.

Putin has the dream of year-round shipping and his ice-breaker fleet is being refurbished with new monsters on the drawing board & under construction to keep the route open & escort shipping.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

charles_oil

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2019, 10:20:38 AM »

I know - just emphasises the difficulty for the definition of "open".  Presumably it could be:


 Navigable with icebreaker escort
 Navigable by ice-class vessel
 Navigable by ordinary commercial vessel
 Navigable by private vessels e.g. sailing boats


I think most of the tracking programmes need subscriptions to view historical data, but can identify individual ships (assuming they havent gone dar b turning off AIS!

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2019, 04:17:26 PM »

I know - just emphasises the difficulty for the definition of "open".  Presumably it could be:


 Navigable with icebreaker escort
 Navigable by ice-class vessel
 Navigable by ordinary commercial vessel
 Navigable by private vessels e.g. sailing boats

I think most of the tracking programmes need subscriptions to view historical data, but can identify individual ships (assuming they havent gone dar b turning off AIS!
Some of us still believe that NSIDC's 15% rule  for sea ice extent came from the old days when a sensible Mariner would not enter an icy sea if he estimated ice at more than 15% (especially if under sail). So I would plump for when the NSIDC extent image shows no open water then it is shut for ordinary vessels.

Mind you, there will be plenty of adventurers convinced that modern technology will get them through which will keep the Russian Air-Sea Rescue Service busy.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

charles_oil

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2019, 05:40:12 PM »

And for commercial traffic its certainly going to increase..... 


https://gcaptain.com/northern-sea-route-shipping-expected-to-quadruple-by-2024/


Whilst the Russians seem to have a handle on their "official" opening date.


https://gcaptain.com/lng-carrier-vladimir-rusanov-opens-northern-sea-route-summer-navigation-season/


And in 2023 ...
https://safety4sea.com/novatek-plans-to-keep-northern-sea-route-open-all-year-long/


Will look for some statistics as well...


Jim Hunt

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2019, 08:03:36 AM »
I reckon the Vilkitsky Strait is now just about closed to "private vessels" at the very least:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

misfratz

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Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2019, 10:56:40 PM »
Yes, it looks that way on the daily NSIDC extent plot, that 15% sea-ice has now blocked the Northern Sea Route. So now I need to work out a way to analyse the NSIDC extent plots with a python script.