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Author Topic: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con  (Read 173646 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #400 on: May 30, 2019, 12:03:27 PM »
I wandered over to Judy's place, ........

Perhaps you need to wander over to Judy's place again.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/30/humans-and-volcanoes-caused-nearly-all-of-global-heating-in-past-140-years
Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
New study confirms natural cycles play little role in global temperature trends and tackles discrepancies in previous models

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.......climate scientists have had a difficult time explaining exactly what caused a warming event in the early 20th century, between about 1910 and 1945. The average of the climate model runs incorporated in the last IPCC report only accounted for about half of the measured global surface warming trend during that period, and a study published last year suggested the other half could be due to natural cycles.

Contrarian scientists like Judith Curry, who is frequently invited by Republicans to testify before US Congress, have often used this discrepancy to cast doubt on the expert consensus on human-caused global warming, arguing that “until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and [National Climate Assessment] attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.”

Study at :- https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0555.1
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Abstract
The early 20th century warming (EW; 1910-1945) and the mid-20th century cooling (MC; 1950-1980) have been linked to both, internal variability of the climate system and changes in external radiative forcing. The degree to which either of the two factors contributed to EW and MC, or both, is still debated. Using a two-box impulse response model, we demonstrate that multidecadal ocean variability was unlikely to be the driver of observed changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) after 1850 A.D. Instead, virtually all (97-98%) of the global low-frequency variability (> 30 years) can be explained by external forcing. We find similarly high percentages of explained variance for inter-hemispheric and land-ocean temperature evolution. Three key aspects are identified which underpin the conclusion of this new study: inhomogeneous anthropogenic aerosol forcing (AER), biases in the instrumental sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, and inadequate representation of the response to varying forcing factors. Once the spatially heterogeneous nature of AER is accounted for, the MC period is reconcilable with external drivers. SST biases and imprecise forcing responses explain the putative disagreement between models and observations during the EW period. As a consequence, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is found to be primarily controlled by external forcing too. Future attribution studies should account for these important factors when discriminating between externally-forced and internallygenerated influences on climate. We argue that AMV must not be used as a regressor and suggest a revised AMV index instead (North Atlantic Variability Index; NAVI). Our associated best estimate for the transient climate response (TCR) is 1.57 K (±0.70 at the 5-95% confidence level).
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #401 on: May 30, 2019, 01:07:40 PM »
Perhaps you need to wander over to Judy's place again.

Thanks for the suggestion, but I like to confine my occasional visits to the dark side to Arctic sea ice specific topics only.

If only Bill the Frog wasn't frantically busy studying physics at the Open University at the present moment:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/tag/bill-the-frog/

Still no response from Anthony or Judy, or Mr. Mosher for that matter:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1133705017079345153
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #402 on: May 30, 2019, 06:48:19 PM »
The force has been with me over on the dark side this afternoon (UTC).

The (in)famous Robert Ellison has taken my juicy bait at ex Prof. Judy's place:

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Judah Cohen’s work is very much worth following – unlike WUWT.

The Arctic Oscillation has been negative – mostly – in April and May. Higher surface pressure at the pole relative to sub-polar sea level pressure. It is a very variable index over weeks and seasonally. It should settle down somewhat over the NH summer. But there are no hard and fast rules of course. Much longer term more negative values in both limited observations and models have been linked to low solar activity.

Archived for posterity at:
 
https://archive.is/rVqZb#selection-6743.0-6751.2
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #403 on: June 01, 2019, 07:07:34 AM »
Mornin all (UTC),

My Maslowski missive to the "slime hole" that is WUWT is still missing.

https://twitter.com/gregladen/status/1134193598705143809

An acolyte of ex. Prof Judy has got his knickers in a twist:

http://archive.is/ZPg3A#selection-7301.0-7301.150

Ryan Maue is evidently "All mouth and no trousers":

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1134681415956742145

Last but not necessarily least, Big Joe Bastardi is "Not even wrong about sea ice":

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1134684460920823808

I wonder what joys the rest of today will bring?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein