The Far Right's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con

[Jim Hunt]

On the other hand everybody knows that I'm less than impressed with the pronouncements of Tony Heller.

He couldn't resist taking a bite out of "Snow White's" tasty looking apple earlier this evening:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1441857499888562181

What on Earth makes Mr. Heller think that "Government climate scientists" stating that "this summer was the hottest ever" in any way contradicts [an increase in Arctic sea ice extent]?

Evidently he has no idea what he's talking about.

[Jim Hunt]

This seems like as good a place as any to post this news, but the mod may disagree?

Katharine Hayhoe promoting her new book on Jimmy Kimmel Live in her own inimitable style:



John Mason's review of "Saving Us" at Skeptical Science:

https://skepticalscience.com/saving-us.html

The importance of finding common ground in starting discussions cannot be emphasised enough, as opposed to lecturing people, an approach which might work with the already engaged but here we are talking about the disengaged, sometimes wilfully so...

I have some experience with this idea through promoting my book, The Making of Ynyslas, but here Katharine goes into a wide-ranging discussion of the different ways in which to approach the subject, in some cases among people actively hostile to climate science. I think for anybody with a genuine interest in working in climate science communication, this is absolutely essential reading.

[oren]

Does not belong in the season thread, moved here as the thread deals with fighting climate change denial and I couldn't think of an alternative. I can move again if you have an idea where.

[Jim Hunt]

This will suffice for the moment Oren. Thanks.

I'll tell Katharine the good news!

[Jim Hunt]

Who would have thunk it?

Today Anthony Watts republished an article by Paul Homewood casting nasturtiums upon our beloved UK Met Office's recent article about the Arctic sea ice minimum extent:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/09/arctic-sea-ice-disinformation-and-cop26/#Sep-29

We have yet to receive a reply from Richard Betts. Perhaps the Met Office’s legal eagles are constructing one of their own to forward to Messrs Watts and/or Homewood?

See also:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1443236386245599234

[Jim Hunt]

Not a lot of people know that Tamino is now on the Watts case as well:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/one-look-at-a-graph/

[Jim Hunt]

Even fewer people know that WUWT has just published a comment from Snow White's very good, and surface temperature monitoring, friend Bill the Frog.

We can only assume that the moderator neglected to click Bill's helpful link?

Be that as it may, Bill would much appreciate any and all offers of a "thumbs up" from anyone brave enough to venture however briefly over to the dark side.

[Jim Hunt]

Today Anthony Watts republished an article by Paul Homewood casting nasturtiums upon our beloved UK Met Office's recent article about the Arctic sea ice minimum extent

Whilst Tamino's comment at WUWT has started a short discussion, it will come as no surprise to regular reader(s) that my helpful addition to the thread is still invisible to Anthony's Band of Merry (mostly) Men (BoMMM for short):

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/09/arctic-sea-ice-disinformation-and-cop26/#comment-487595

[Jim Hunt]

The Watts Up With That Arctic porky pie production line is going into overdrive.

This afternoon (UTC) an Arctic article authored by our old amigo Willis Eschenbach, this time targeting the IPCC rather than the UK Met Office, hit the WUWT front page:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/whats-up-with-that-arctic-sea-ice-disinformation/

For some reason Willis is quoting the IPCC's SROCC rather than AR6, and an article about Kato et al. (2006) rather than the raft of references in SROCC and/or AR6 concerning Arctic albedo. Allegedly:

Despite the IPCC claim of “high confidence”, the 2007 findings of Kato and the more recent CERES data shown above demonstrate that feedback from changes in sea ice and snow cover have NOT contributed in any significant way to amplified warming in the Arctic. Cloud changes offset these sea ice and snow changes almost entirely. In short, the IPCC claim is overstated.despite the IPCC claim of “high confidence”, the 2007 findings of Kato and the more recent CERES data shown above demonstrate that feedback from changes in sea ice and snow cover have NOT contributed in any significant way to amplified warming in the Arctic. Cloud changes offset these sea ice and snow changes almost entirely. In short, the IPCC claim is overstated.

Needless to say my constructive comment is currently languishing on Anthony’s cutting room floor:

[Jim Hunt]

Yesterday Tony Heller proudly proclaimed on Twitter that:

I’m going to make a video today discussing the systemic lies, data hiding and deception about the Arctic from government agencies and the press.

Early today (UTC) Tony asserted on YouTube that:

And of course the graph starts in 1979 because they say that’s the start of the satellite record!

This morning (UTC):

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/lies-damned-lies-and-tony-heller-videos/

[Stephan]

Don't they have the data at least until Dec 2020

[Jim Hunt]

Don't they have the data at least until Dec 2020

The graph was last published in 2018, and hasn't been updated since as far as I am aware:

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2011/01/arctic-sea-ice-satellites

[Jim Hunt]

It seems as though for some strange reason Anthony Watts isn't keen on bringing news of the award of the Nobel Prize in Physics to some climate modellers to the attention of his faithful followers:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1446151973875691527

[Jim Hunt]

Needless to say Tony Heller has yet to answer any of my recent questions. What’s more despite the exhortations of one of his band of merry (mostly) men he has declined to engage in a public debate with me:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/lies-damned-lies-and-tony-heller-videos/#Oct-16

Would anyone care to play "spot the difference" with me? Unlike Tony!

[Jim Hunt]

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!”
He chortled in his joy.

It has been brought to my attention (slightly belatedly) that in the run up to COP26 David Rose is once again pontificating about Arctic sea ice on Twitter. Quite possibly this will prove to be the source of an entire series of articles, but here is your starter for ten:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/david-rose-on-the-new-arctic/

[SimonF92]

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!”
He chortled in his joy.

It has been brought to my attention (slightly belatedly) that in the run up to COP26 David Rose is once again pontificating about Arctic sea ice on Twitter. Quite possibly this will prove to be the source of an entire series of articles, but here is your starter for ten:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/david-rose-on-the-new-arctic/

I hate how im genuinely happy that the inevitable decline of the ice gets a 1-year haitus and that feeling gets to be tainted by (insert adjective here) people like that, who dont understand the difference between long-term trend and short-term variability

[Jim Hunt]

People like that, who don't understand the difference between long-term trend and short-term variability.

Alternatively perhaps "people like that" speak out of malice aforethought rather than ignorance?

Meanwhile, whilst doing my rounds of the usual suspects I seem to have managed to catch Ron Clutz with his pants down:

[SimonF92]

People like that, who don't understand the difference between long-term trend and short-term variability.

Alternatively perhaps "people like that" speak out of malice aforethought rather than ignorance?

Meanwhile, whilst doing my rounds of the usual suspects I seem to have managed to catch Ron Clutz with his pants down:

The mind truly boggles as to understanding why anyone would have malicious intent regarding the spreading of misinformation about climate change. The only reason I can think of would be that they stand to gain financially. If so, I dug up worms in the garden the other day with more moral fibre

[Jim Hunt]

The only reason I can think of would be that they stand to gain financially.

Great minds think alike?

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1449698054421065728
 

If so, I dug up worms in the garden the other day with more moral fibre

Moving pictures of two worms with more moral fibre than "Steve" and David combined?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1450222295327313926

[Jim Hunt]

I seem to have managed to catch Ron Clutz with his pants down:

"Tallbloke" has been "moderating" the thread shown above. However my initial comment currently remains intact:

[SimonF92]

The only reason I can think of would be that they stand to gain financially.

Great minds indeed! Look at that post correlation!

Great minds think alike?

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1449698054421065728
 

If so, I dug up worms in the garden the other day with more moral fibre

Moving pictures of two worms with more moral fibre than "Steve" and David combined?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1450222295327313926

[Jim Hunt]

What with COP26 going on and all I haven't had time to keep posting about all the associated shenanigans in the cryodenialosphere.

In the wake of the ultimately disappointing outcome in Glasgow we figured we'd (re)launch our long standing "Water Connects Us" campaign under the #CopOut26 and #WaterConnectsUs banners. However Twitter seemed to be doing everything in their power to prevent us doing so.

However late last night (UTC) the "Alt Water Connects Us" campaign finally managed to escape from Twitter jail.

This morning we are very pleased to be able to announce that we now have the Governator in our corner:

https://twitter.com/WaterConnectsU/status/1461470264529727489

 

[Jim Hunt]

Arnie was CCed in on our latest spin around the Twitter "support" Gish Gallop:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1462135124666036230

So was George Monbiot.

[Niall Dollard]

Tony Heller suspended on twitter !

[Jim Hunt]

Tony Heller suspended on twitter !

I'd noticed that as well Niall. More likely for his anti-vax arguments than climate change denial though?

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1468967018065915904

Meanwhile Tony and some others amongst the usual suspects are suddenly waging the #DMIGate2 war:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/12/sea-ice-data-tampering-at-dmi/

"Not a lot of people know that... my helpful explanatory comment is currently invisible to Paul’s band of merry (mostly) men:"

[Jim Hunt]

In some “Shock News!” from the cryodenialosphere a comment of mine at WUWT has belatedly seen the light of day:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/12/sea-ice-data-tampering-at-dmi/#comment-521510

Any and all additional “thumbs up” at the actual WUWT gratefully received!

[Jim Hunt]

This "Shock News!" greatly amused my Arctic alter ego:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/12/the-gwpf-boldly-go-where-steve-koonin-feared-to-tread/

Regular readers may recall that as soon as Steve Koonin’s book was published in machine readable format we established that it made no mention whatsoever of sea ice, whether of the Arctic or Antarctic variety.

Furthermore, when I attempted to debate that fact with Prof. Koonin he disappeared without trace before justifying that strange omission, beyond asserting that:

"The topic is somewhat distant from ordinary folks’ perception."

It seems that Prof. Bates and the GWPF disagree with Prof. Koonin on this topic, since presumably their “paper” is addressed to ordinary folks? Ray even explicitly states that:

"Although Unsettled covers a broad spectrum of climate topics, it does not treat in depth the issue of recent polar sea-ice trends, which are key indicators of changes in the global climate."

[Jim Hunt]

An apparently avid disciple of Tony Heller handed "Snow White" a poisoned apple.

"She" couldn't resist taking a big bite:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/10/rewriting-the-arctic/

Peter, a welcome new denizen here at the Great White Con Ivory Towers, appears to have parachuted into our far north summer hideaway on the shores of Santa’s Secret Summer Swimming Pool straight from Tony Heller‘s Unreal Climate Science blog.

Prompted by Peter I wandered over to Tony’s place where I found to my surprise that he has recently been busy warming up an old chestnut of his that has been debunked numerous times over the past decade. Allegedly:

Between 1990 and 2001, the IPCC rewrote the Arctic sea ice satellite record, and changed a trend of ice increasing to ice decreasing.

[Jim Hunt]

Shock News!!! 

One of Tony's band of merry (mostly) men has actually done some due diligence:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/10/rewriting-the-arctic/#Oct-05

However for some strange reason he neglects to mention that Tony’s link labelled “2001 IPCC Report” doesn’t lead to that graph!

[Jim Hunt]

Readers of the XTwitter thread may have noticed that a certain Tony Heller is selling lots of Arctic porky pies over on the ex birdsite once again, thanks to Elon Musk's new regime.

Tony has been studiously ignoring "Snow White's" numerous recent snow white gauntlets, but things are getting serious now:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/07/tony-hellers-faithful-flock-of-sheep/#comment-694878

[Tony] has doubled down on his “freezing cold North Pole” nonsense.

What’s more my Arctic alter ego has a new feather in “her” (faux!) sealskin cap. “She” has been followed by Steve Milloy.

[The Walrus]

He may be cherry-picking, but he is not wrong.  The mean temperature for plus 80 north was indeed much colder than average during May - especially, the first three weeks (I cannot comment on his record low claim).  Hence, during that period, the sea ice extent went from 200k above the 10-year average to 400k above from May 1 to May 20.  The extent is back down to 200k above the 10-year average now.  The cold spring has most likely inhibited melt sufficiently to prevent any sort of near-record minimum this year.  If that 3-week period had extented into summer and the fall, then maybe - just maybe - there is a smidge of credibility.  People cherry-pick the data all the time - unfortunately, not just his side of the argument.

[Jim Hunt]

Hi Walrus,

Can I safely assume that you haven't done your due diligence and clicked through to GWC and/or XTwitter.

For some strange reason "Steve"/Tony has recently reduced the size of the porky pies coming off his production line.

[The Walrus]

I do not read through those posts, and have no clue as to the number of porky pies.  I was merely responding to the comment about Arctic tempertures.

[Jim Hunt]

Sticking with temperatures to begin with. Can you spot any holes to pick in:

Temperatures at the North Pole have been below the 1958-2002 average almost every day for the past three months, and May was the coldest on record there.

#ClimateScam

Moving on to extent, how holey is this:

July 26 Arctic sea ice extent is the highest in fourteen years and higher than 2005.  This will not be reported by the @nytimes @NPR @BBCNews @CNN
 
#ClimateScam

[Phil.]

Yes, he misinterprets the extent being the 14th lowest as meaning it was a continuous record whereas there were other years in that period which had higher extent (2014 for example).

[The Walrus]

Sticking with temperatures to begin with. Can you spot any holes to pick in:

Temperatures at the North Pole have been below the 1958-2002 average almost every day for the past three months, and May was the coldest on record there.

#ClimateScam

Moving on to extent, how holey is this:

July 26 Arctic sea ice extent is the highest in fourteen years and higher than 2005.  This will not be reported by the @nytimes @NPR @BBCNews @CNN
 
#ClimateScam

Just eyeballing the dmi data, May looks like the coldest month on record.  The only year that might challenge 2023 would be 1964.  Over the past three months, the temperature was below the average on most days.  No visible holes there.

Based on NSIDC extent data, July 26, 2023 was the 5th highest over the past 14 years.  In fact, on date in 2023 was the ice extent ever the highest.  Third highest was the tops, which was reached on several days.  Perhaps JAXA data shows something different.  Very holey.

[Jim Hunt]

Just eyeballing the dmi data

Do you recall all the names "Steve"/Tony called the DMI regarding their extent data a few years back, at the time of the so called DMIgate scandal? If not please see:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/more-arctic-bs-from-tony-heller/

Why do you suppose that the DMI are suddenly in his good books?

[gerontocrat]

There is no doubt that in May ice melt was slow, and most notable in the High Arctic where both extent and area were on some days 30th to 33rd lowest (16th to 13th highest) in the 45 year satellite record.

But in the High Arctic melting has barely started in May, so in absolute terms, i.e. in Km2, the differences between highs and lows are relatively small.

And so what? Climate change is not a smooth linear path as has been noticed recently. Its effects and severity often seem randomly located. Here on the North Coast of Scotland July weather has been rubbish, mostly very cool cloudy and windy thanks to the jetstream across the Atlantic. I don't think that means AGW has stopped.

Some may remember bbr2314's obsession with his idea of a new icecap on the Torngat Mountains in NE Canada, when the reality was and is rapid greening (see https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/11/2085 Rapid Ecosystem Change at the Southern Limit of the Canadian Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park)

Me, I just can't be bothered responding to this crap.

[nadir]

Moving on to extent, how holey is this:

July 26 Arctic sea ice extent is the highest in fourteen years and higher than 2005.  This will not be reported by the @nytimes @NPR @BBCNews @CNN
 
#ClimateScam

I don’t know why this thread is here but there are two aspects that are not wrong in that:

- According to Jaxa, extent has been 14th for each day for several days of July (despite the intense melt ongoing in the Pacific side). This guy makes a wrong interpretation, or whatever: the fact is quite surprising.

- The New York Times, BBC, CNN will continuously cheery-pick their Climate news. So this is the year of the Antarctic sea ice and the warm North Atlantic SSTs, a few years ago the Antarctic was ignored while the Arctic was news. Now the “monster” Niño is coming. Everything is “suggested” to be directly related to Climate Change, including some grossly exaggerated heatwaves and some specific extreme events that even scientists avoid to directly link to Climate Change.

No wonder that Tony guy can easily convince his followers about #ClimateScam because it’s true: the way media deals with this is a scam.

[Jim Hunt]

Me, I just can't be bothered responding to this crap.

Perhaps that's because you're not familiar with my recent descent into conspiracy ideation Gero?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1686061818387599360

"It's the same people!"

[Jim Hunt]

"July 26 Arctic sea ice extent is the highest in fourteen years and higher than 2005."

According to Jaxa, extent has been 14th for each day for several days of July

Really? Using Toto's definition?

[echoughton]

"No wonder that Tony guy can easily convince his followers about #ClimateScam because it’s true: the way media deals with this is a scam."

Jim, you really have to admit the media has gone absolutely bat-shit-crazy in this blame everything on climate change narrative. It's out of control...and getting worse.

[Jim Hunt]

This morning's (UTC) bulletin from the wildfire frontline:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/07/tony-hellers-faithful-flock-of-sheep/#Aug-01

I don't know if I should tell you this...

I sometimes look at this stuff and think “Am I the one that’s gone bonkers?”

Where's Neven when you need him?

[Jim Hunt]

Jim, you really have to admit the media has gone absolutely bat-shit-crazy...

It's out of control...and getting worse.

Absolutely. Left, right and centre!

At the risk of drifting slightly off topic, see for example this piece from The Grauniad's "environment editor":

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests

[Neven]

Where's Neven when you need him?

What do you need him to do?

[Jim Hunt]

What do you need him to do?

I'd be grateful if you could find the time to watch Mr. James O'Brien's short video just above, and then let me (and anybody else who might be interested) know what you make of it?

Did you ever get around to watching Adam Curtis's latest BTW?

P.S. And if you could wave your magic wand and change this thread's title that would be absolutely spiffing.

[Jim Hunt]

P.P.S. See also Mr. O'Brien's latest, even shorter, video. It's visible above my latest Xeet at:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1686347088588660736

Are you planning on having any grandchildren Rishi Sunak?

[be cause]

maybe time this thread went to the politics ... ?

[Jim Hunt]

maybe time this thread went to the politics ... ?

Be patient b.c...

See e.g. https://scicomm.xyz/@Ruth_Mottram@fediscience.org/110814087349004196

[kassy]

- The New York Times, BBC, CNN will continuously cheery-pick their Climate news. So this is the year of the Antarctic sea ice and the warm North Atlantic SSTs, a few years ago the Antarctic was ignored while the Arctic was news. Now the “monster” Niño is coming. Everything is “suggested” to be directly related to Climate Change, including some grossly exaggerated heatwaves and some specific extreme events that even scientists avoid to directly link to Climate Change.

Until recently nothing noticeable happened in Antarctica, apart from some Thwaites science which was reported.

The news will report on the most extreme events happening at the time so yeah. We also had a triple La Nina which masked the temperature rise. And of course everything in the climate change is related to AGW. Not sure how you can think it is not or where you find your exaggerated heatwaves. The main ones have been remarkable or continue to be so.

Some people like to talk about AGW and down play it. This will not keep working.

maybe time this thread went to the politics ... ?

Probably. The ice does not care what people talk about. And the way people talk about it all is politics? Especially if the discussion is not that focussed on the science.