Maybe it was down to my bias but before this year I may have discounted the effect of wind too much. It's also possible that there's a threshold, almost a surface effect, which the ice has to thicken beyond before it gains any serious traction in the water.
This doesn't look good for the ice, being stretched away from where it must hold to allow compaction to take place. Taken with the apparent new regime through Bering, where it seems outflowing surface fresh[er] water moves to balance the increased inflow at depth or along the Alaskan coast, which stream is moving east even through Amundsen. With the ice shifting north in the CAA it's worth thinking that that warmer water will increase pressure on the flow through Parry to Baffin. There's already, for the last month, now calming, incredible turbulence in the ocean approaches to Fram which suggests a regime change there too, as does the accelerated flow down the west coast of Nares, which may indicate an increased low of 'Arctic' naturalised Atlantic waters flowing out at depth. The warm inflow through Bering is helping to raise the humidity levels over the ice which will inhibit cooling and maybe prolong this unexpected hiatus.
