What's new in the Arctic ?

[Sigmetnow]

`Atlantification’ of Barents Sea tipping it towards new climate regime

Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a “rapid climate shift” in the Arctic’s Barents Sea, a new study says.

The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.

If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.

But, in recent years, scientists have documented the “Atlantification” of the Barents sea as an increased inflow of Atlantic water has enlarged the area where sea ice cannot form. This has resulted in decline in ice extent on the Barents Sea, particularly in eastern areas.

Using decades of data collected from ships and satellites, the new study investigates the causes behind these changes, finding that they are, ultimately, caused by rising temperatures in the Arctic and the associated decrease in sea ice.

Sea change

Sea ice plays a key role in keeping the northern Barents Sea in its Arctic climate regime. In addition to the sea ice that forms on its surface, the region receives an “import” of sea ice each year, blown in from the central Arctic by the wind.

When the imported sea ice melts in spring and summer, it provides an influx of freshwater to the Barents Sea. This cold, fresh water top-ups the Arctic layer of the northern region, helping to maintain the stratification that works as a barrier to the warm Atlantic waters below.

But the amount of ice the Barents Sea receives each year is declining. The average annual area of ice import during 2000-15 was around 40% smaller, on average, than during 1979-2009, the study finds. The decrease in volume of sea ice imported “was even larger”, the study says, at approximately 60%. ...

https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime

[Steven]

Reconstruction of Arctic Barents-Kara sea ice extent changes over the last millennium

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-reconstruction-arctic-barents-kara-sea-ice.html

[oren]

Thanks for this Steven.
FWIW, the reference is to sea ice extent around the minimum.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11430-017-9196-4

Abstract
Using high-resolution ice core and tree ring proxies for sea ice extent (SIE), we reconstructed a robust time series of autumn SIE over the Barents-Kara (B-K) sector of the Arctic from AD1289–1993. After intercomparing the results and statistical parameters using the ordinary least squares regression (OLSR), the principle component regression (PCR) and the partial least squares regression (PLSR) methods, SIE time series were synthesized into a more robust series using the weighted average method, which used the explained variances as weights. The results showed that from the end of the 13th century to the end of 18th century, the autumn B-K SIE was large, with large variations and a slightly expanding trend overall. This reflected significant multidecadal oscillations under the Little Ice Age (LIA) background. The B-K SIE began to decrease at the end of the 18th century, and a shrinking trend became significant during the second half of the 19th century, which lasted into the 1930s–1940s. The 1930s–1940s was a period with a relatively low SIE in the B-K Sea, and the SIE had a short period of expansion from the 1940s–1970s. However, the B-K SIE has continuously and significantly shrank since the 1970s. The reduction in the B-K SIE since the end of the 18th century has been unprecedented in both duration and speed over the last 700 years. The B-K SIE has retreated significantly since the 1970s, with a speed 6.18 times greater than the former mean retreating speed. The industrial revolution may be a dominant factor in this result. The Arctic SIE in recent years may be the lowest it has been over the last millennium.

Considering the significance of proxy data (e.g., tree rings can only reflect climatic conditions during the growing seasons, which are mainly in summer and autumn) and the fact that ice-free conditions may emerge in the B-K area in September, we reconstruct Arctic sea ice in the B-K Sea during August and October (defined as autumn here).

[binntho]

A very interesting paper in Nature on sudden thawing of permafrost under thermokarst lakes.

Abstract

Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.

Abrupt thaw implications

While the cumulative land area subject to abrupt thaw lake formation is less than one tenth of permafrost land areas (Supplementary Fig. 4e, f), our modeling results (Fig. 4), supported by field work (Figs 1 and 5) and remote sensing (Fig. 3), show that an increase in the volume of newly thawed sub-lake sediments through expansion of existing and formation of new thermokarst lakes is likely to yield disproportionately large releases of 14C-depleted permafrost carbon to the atmosphere this century.

...

In contrast to shallow, gradual thaw that may rapidly re-form permafrost upon climate cooling, deep, CH4-yielding abrupt thaw is irreversible this century. Once formed, lake taliks continue to deepen even under colder climates17, mobilizing carbon that was sequestered from the atmosphere over tens of thousands of years. The release of this carbon as CH4 and CO2 is irreversible in the 21st century. This irreversible, abrupt thaw climate feedback is large enough to warrant continued efforts toward integrating mechanisms that speed up deep permafrost-carbon thaw and release into large-scale models used to predict the rate of Earth’s climate change.

[Sebastian Jones]

A disturbing development in the Bering Sea- historically the north Bering has been divided from the south by a pool of cold water that is a result of ultra cold brine sinking from the sea ice to the bottom. The location of this cold barrier varies from year to year, but in 2018 it is entirely absent for the first time in the 37 year record.
This means that more southern species such as pollock are moving into the Bering Strait area, displacing indigenous species such as capelin and sand lance, disrupting the food web and is probably the cause of hitherto unexplained die-offs of sea birds. While the physical conditions in the Bering are unique, and very different to the arctic ocean in general, the vanishing of this latitudinal stratification has troubling implications for the retention of sea ice, not just in the Bering but in the wider arctic as well.
http://www.nomenugget.net/news/noaa-survey-shows-shocking-lack-thermal-barrier-between-northern-and-southern-bering-sea

[sidd]

Beaufort Gyre halocline heating up:

"Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming.

"The doubling of BG halocline heat content over the past three decades appears attributable to a warming of the source waters that ventilate the layer, where this warming is due to sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea that leave the surface ocean more exposed to incoming solar radiation in summer. The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition, lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has consequences far beyond the summer season. Strong stratification and weak mechanical mixing in the BG halocline ensure that significant summertime heat remains in the halocline through the winter.

With continued sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea, additional heat may continue to be archived in the warm halocline. This underscores the far-reaching implications of changes to the dynamical ice-ocean system in the Chukchi Sea region. However, there is a limit to this: Once the source waters for the halocline become warm enough that their buoyancy is affected, ventilation can be shut off."

Open. Read all about it.

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat6773

sidd

[gerontocrat]

Hullo Sidd,

Beaufort Gyre halocline heating up:

You put this paper in the right thread, others have cluttered up the melting season thread.

[jacksmith4tx]

'Archived' heat has reached deep into the Arctic interior, researchers say
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-archived-deep-arctic-interior.html

Arctic sea ice isn't just threatened by the melting of ice around its edges, a new study has found: Warmer water that originated hundreds of miles away has penetrated deep into the interior of the Arctic.

That "archived" heat, currently trapped below the surface, has the potential to melt the region's entire sea-ice pack if it reaches the surface, researchers say.

The study appears online Aug. 29 in the journal Science Advances.

"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.

The upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has seen a two-fold increase in heat content over the past 30 years, the researchers said. They traced the source to waters hundreds of miles to the south, where reduced sea ice has left the surface ocean more exposed to summer solar warming. In turn, Arctic winds are driving the warmer water north, but below the surface waters.

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said. "Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

[Cid_Yama]

It's only a matter of time.  Today's AMSR2 should be alarming to anyone.  Pretty clear we only have a couple years left.  And if something dramatic and unexpected happens...

[josh-j]

It's only a matter of time.  Today's AMSR2 should be alarming to anyone.  Pretty clear we only have a couple years left.  And if something dramatic and unexpected happens...

Not to say that I disagree, more that I don't understand - but is it not the case that extent and volume are higher this year than 2012 when it looked like collapse could be imminent? I'm sure we could get unlucky any time soon and sooner or later yes the inevitable will happen, but a couple of years left?

I've looked at the recent AMSR2 images and don't know enough to know whether I should be alarmed, but from a simplistic novice perspective things look better this year than they have in (some) past years - acknowledging of course the relentless downward spiral.

[wili]

jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year

There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.

This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.

Wow!

I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).

[gerontocrat]

jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year

There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.

This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.

Wow!

I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).

Below I quote the discussion part of the study. There are two threads in that discussion (it seems to me)..

Heat will continue to accumulate at depth especially with more open water in the Chukchi during the high insolation period in summer As a result, there will be more heat coming up all year round, reducing winter ice growth. The study does not suggest a sudden event when 30 years worth of accumulated heat suddenly burps to the surface and poof, no ice. (See the last sentence in the extract below).

If surface water temperature in the Chukchi reaches, say, 13 celsius, the density of this salty water will drop and subduction under the cooler fresher water would stop.

It adds to my and others speculation that it is winter sea ice that is going to be strongly reduced as in the last 2 years. But if subduction stops ?

_____________________________________________________________
EXTRACT FROM THE STUDY
DISCUSSION
Implications and outlook

The doubling of BG halocline heat content over the past three decades
appears attributable to a warming of the source waters that ventilate the
layer, where this warming is due to sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea that
leave the surface ocean more exposed to incoming solar radiation in
summer. The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus
not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition,
lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has
consequences far beyond the summer season. Strong stratification and weak mechanical mixing in the BG halocline ensure that significant
summertime heat remains in the halocline through the winter.

With continued sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea, additional heat may continue to be archived in the warm halocline. This underscores the far-reaching implications of changes to the dynamical ice-ocean system in the Chukchi Sea region.

However, there is a limit to this: Once the source waters for the halocline become warm enough that their buoyancy is affected, ventilation can be shut off. Efficient summertime subduction relies on the lateral surface front in the NCS region between warm, salty water that is denser to the south and cooler, fresher water that is less dense to the north. For longer-duration solar warming (that is, longer-duration ice-free conditions in the region), SSTs on the south side of the front may become warm enough (around 13°C, under the assumption of a 1.5-month ice-free period dominated by solar absorption) that the lateral density gradient is eliminated.

It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics of the Arctic halocline. In the coming years, however, excess BG halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.

[Richard Rathbone]

jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year

There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.

This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.

Wow!

I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).

Read the paper rather than a journalists sexed-up account of it. Its worth reading, the articles about it aren't.

[gerontocrat]

jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year

Read the paper rather than a journalists sexed-up account of it. Its worth reading, the articles about it aren't.

I did, and agree with you. I wrote my thoughts about it earlier on this thread and was moved to repeat the post with an acid comment on the new thread "Holy Sh!te" that I hope Neven will do something about - at least to change the thread title.

The conclusions by the article bear little or no resemblance to the hyperbolic drivel (as above) being thrown around like confetti.

[Bruce Steele]

This paper postulates that 2018 may see cyclonic conditions like  2017 in the Beaufort. A relaxation of Ekman pumping and a cyclonic spin to the Beaufort gyre may be releasing accumulated surface fresh water and some of the deeper accumulated heat via transpolar drift and the garlic press. Fish out of water has been highlighting the large flows moving out through the garlic press over the last month.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66597

"
Our analysis of recent changes in the atmospheric forcing over the Arctic Ocean (Proshutinsky et al., 2018) for the entire 2017 showed that the atmospheric circulation regime in 2017 was predominantly cyclonic (for the first time since 1997), with a small anticyclonic cell in the southeastern BG region. SLP distributions in 2016-2017 were similar to conditions observed in 1988-1989 when the 1983-1988 ACCR shifted to a CCR that lasted from 1989-1996 (Proshutinsky et al., 2015). We hypothesize that the 2017 shift to CCR could be a precursor for a CCR to dominate for the next 3-5 years, resembling the 1989-1996 tendencies. A cyclonic regime has generally been associated with some increase and stabilization of sea ice extent, intensification of Atlantic water transport via Fram Strait, weakened Siberian river runoff, decreased BG FWC, and FW release to the North Atlantic (Proshutinsky et al., 1999).  It is also expected that sea ice extent minimum in 2018 will be similar to 2017 or increased because cyclonic winds keep sea-ice in the Arctic which reduces rates of ice melt due to ice-albedo feedback. Therefore, continuing BGOS observations in 2019 and 2020 are likely to detect and quantify FW release from the BG region, which has never been documented before."

IMHO The heat that has been accumulating in the Beaufort may potentially exit the Arctic without mixing upward into the surface mixed layer.

[Richard Rathbone]

There's a PIOMAS paper from 2011 that it reminded me of

Modeling the formation and fate of the near‐surface temperature maximum in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, Michael Steele, Wendy Ermold, and Jinlun Zhang

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2010JC006803

Ekman pumping in the Gyre. Similar amounts of heat being held below the surface each year compared to the 20 year accumulation the recent one found. Most of it found to leak back up over winter, but its no great surprise that a small bit of it goes down and stays down.

[RoxTheGeologist]

Having warm salty water under the Arctic has always been the case; It's part of the freeze/thaw cycle and Arctic runoff that generates the stratification in the summer and the mixed layer in the winter. 50m is well below the mixing level of storms caused by swell; unless there is eckman pumping or coastal upwelling it won't see the surface.

The extra heat added is enough to melt about 0.6m of ice, and perhaps more worryingly, the density difference in the pycnocline drops by about 4% in the top 100m from what it was, reducing resistance to mixing.

28 psu water has a density of ~1022.57 at its freezing point -1.46°C, and 31 psu seawater has a density of ~1022.59 at 14°C so it wouldn't sink. But a small amount of cooling would cause the more saline water to sink below the surface, but, as the density gradient in the halocline is reduce, more mixing will happen.

Basically; not good, but not a herald of incipient doom. That heat has been building for a while.

[wili]

Sooo, should we never pay any attention to what the lead author of a major paper says she thinks is significant about it?

"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University...

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said.

"Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

https://phys.org/news/2018-08-archived-deep-arctic-interior.html#jCp

[doogi]

Ironbark Zinc took advantage of the poor ice conditions north of Greenland and chartered the ice breaking bulk carrier Nunavik for a tour to Citronen fjord as a proof of concept for their mine in the fjord.

http://sermitsiaq.ag/milepael-naaet-ironbark-projektet

[binntho]

Aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman strikes north of the Arctic Circle ...

[litesong]

Aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman strikes north of the Arctic Circle ...

No, its the Aircraft Carrier Harry S. Truman Strike Group, north of the Arctic Circle......
The U.S. military is belatedly showing its presence in the Arctic, well past a year after russian military nuclear ships have been escorted through the Arctic Northeast Passage along siberian north coastal waters by a russian nuclear icebreaker, during much more vaunted exercises.

[Juan C. García]

Interior Department officials announced their approval Wednesday of a company’s plan to drill for oil six miles off the Alaskan coast in the shallow waters of the Beaufort Sea.
If the development by Hilcorp Energy moves forward, it would be the first oil and gas production facility in federal waters in Alaska, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke said in the announcement, a major victory for the oil industry and a blow to conservation groups that fought it, fearing a possible leak in a sensitive and pristine natural environment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/24/trump-administration-just-approved-plan-drill-oil-alaskas-federal-waters-its-major-first/

[vox_mundi]

Melting Glaciers at Novaya Zemlya Contain Radiation From Nuclear Bomb Tests

A science expedition to the area has discovered “large concentrations of radioactivity” in the ice – and concludes that the glaciers are melting into the sea at record speed.

The primary goals for the Russian researchers were to study whether hundreds of containers with dumped radioactive waste in the Kara Sea were leaking or not.

Sailing the Kara Sea and the bays along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya from August 17th to September 20th, the researchers on board “Akademik Keldysh” conclude there are good reasons to continue monitoring the dumped containers, but preliminary results gives no indications of leakages. However, especially one barge that was discovered at 400 meters depth, filled with radioactive waste containers, requires special attention for the future. Underwater footages show the barge is destroyed and some containers have fallen out and are spread on the seafloor, news agency TASS reports.



More worrying is the radiation discovered in the glaciers stretching out in the waters.

From 1957 to 1962, a total of 86 nuclear bomb tests were carried out in the atmosphere at Novaya Zemlya. The tests include the largest nuclear devices ever exploded, like the so-called 58 megatons Tsar-bomb on October 30, 1961.

It is the fallout from these tests that now are about to melt out to the sea.

... Explaining how the glaciers in the area are retreating, the researchers tell how “Akademik Keldysh” sailed to the point in Blagopoluchiye Bay where the Vershinsky glacier in 2014 ended in the sea. Today, that spot was more than 2 kilometers out from where the terminus of the glacier is now.

[Sleepy]

Surprise, not.
Pjotr Velikij has entered the Barents Sea to perform combat training missions.
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12202623

[Sleepy]

One person is reported dead and Russia’s only aircraft carrier has been damaged as floating dry dock sinks into the waters of the Kola Bay.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2018/10/aircraft-carrier-damaged-dry-dock-sinks

That dry dock was built by Götaverken/Arendal in Gothenburg, the last ship that was built there was icebreaker Oden.

A lazy translation attempt by myself from this one:
http://www.migrationinstitute.fi/files/pdf/julkaisuja-sarja/j19-isbn-978-952-7167-44-1-tung-metall-lamer-migrationsinstitutet-2017.pdf

The shipyard delivered the world's largest floating dock Nb 910 number 50 to Murmansk.
This floating dock is a chapter by itself, Arendal had won a big international bidding in March 1978 and the Soviet Union ordered the giant dock to be delivered to Murmansk during the next fall. The dock was unique to its size, 330 meters long, 90 meters wide and 30 meters high. Building time was 18 months. A test run was scheduled for August and prominent Russian experts would attend to make sure everything was done right. Then the dock would be towed to Murmansk along the Norwegian coast. The preparations for the test trip were meticulous, since the dock was extremely large and hard to manoeuvre.
On the test trip in August 1979, it turned out that the weather report was not correct at all. Even the sea route showed to be an unfortunate choice. The worst thing was, however, that when they started testing the functions of the dock, there were confusion between the responsible representatives for the manufacturer and the Russian experts about responsibility for command and the dock was injured. It was claimed that the Russian vodka culture should have played a part. The construction was towed back to Arendal and because the delivery was imminent, they gathered all availble forces so that the repair could be made on schedule.
It was a Dutch company that started to tow the giant dock against Murmansk. It was during an autumn storm and the towing became difficult. But arriving at the harbor the storm threw the dock
towards the beach so hard, that it suffered severe damage. It was towed to Kirkenes in Norway for repair. Almost on the day, one year later, the dock finally arrived in Murmansk in September 1980. After this unfortunate start, the dock received ambiguous names like; Russian Doll or Rag Doll and it has become somewhat of a legend.

Dock is Docka in Swedish, which also means Doll.
That Rag Doll survived itself but finally met it's destiny, at the bottom of the ocean.

Edit; can't resist adding that picture (from the pdf above) of Oden from when she was built at Arendal.

[Wipneus]

The KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) issued a small news report (what they call climate-message).

The message is that the decline of Arctic Sea Ice has been mostly in thickness, not area. And that will change when the ice get thinner. The consequence of this is that Arctic warming will amplify as AlbertoAlbedo will drop.

On twitter one of the scientists speculates that Arctic amplification will increase from current 2-3 to future 4-5.

The message is in Dutch, but should be readable with Google translate:

We need climate models to make the best estimates of future changes in the climate. KNMI plays an important role in the development of a precise global climate model (EC-Earth) with which we can study the consequences of Arctic changes. The model results show that sea-ice retreat will play an increasingly important role in the loss of Arctic sea ice in the future (figure 1). Because this increases the warming of the Arctic relatively strongly (compared to the thinning), the temperature in the Arctic is expected to rise more and more quickly.

Figure 1. Future simulation of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) and sea ice surface (SIA) showing that the sea ice thickness is decreasing nowadays, while in the future the sea ice surface will decrease.

[FrostKing70]

Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?

[Wipneus]

Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?

Spell checker mess.

[gerontocrat]

The KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) issued a small news report (what they call climate-message).

The message is that the decline of Arctic Sea Ice has been mostly in thickness, not area. And that will change when the ice get thinner. The consequence of this is that Arctic warming will amplify as AlbertoAlbedo will drop.

On twitter one of the scientists speculates that Arctic amplification will increase from current 2-3 to future 4-5.

We need climate models to make the best estimates of future changes in the climate. KNMI plays an important role in the development of a precise global climate model (EC-Earth) with which we can study the consequences of Arctic changes. The model results show that sea-ice retreat will play an increasingly important role in the loss of Arctic sea ice in the future (figure 1). Because this increases the warming of the Arctic relatively strongly (compared to the thinning), the temperature in the Arctic is expected to rise more and more quickly.

I agree, which is personally pleasing. Area to me is very important as the less area of ice there is means the greater area of open water with consequent major change to the climate / weather where it is happening. That is why I developed over the last few months an analysis of open water vs sea ice for each of the 14 seas to track the change in each sea (1980 to 2018) from icy deserts to maritime open ocean at various periods of the year and the entire year. (Just looking at trends in the minimum, a one day observation, is not good enough?)

Volume alone surely is not the answer, as volume is thickness x area, and loss of area surely changes the climate ?

Examples attached:-
The area above the line is ice, below the line is open water.

[gerontocrat]

Here is the link to that message from KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)

https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/arctisch-zee-ijs-wordt-vooral-snel-dunner

Google will translate it for you. I remember a long discussion about whether the ice would get thinner and thinner, i.e. slow area loss, or would sea ice area loss catch up with volume loss.

They think area must catch up, but of course no guesses from them on when.

[litesong]

Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?

Maybe they painted the "OH, Boy Alberto" hydroplane a darker color. But I don't think they renamed it to Albedo. 

[binntho]

Very strong earthquake, 6.7 on the Ricther scale, to the west of Jan Mayen, unusally strong for the Mid-Atlantic ridge. Not very likely to have any effect on sea ice!

[oren]

I wonder if it could have some effect on calving activity in eastern Greenland.

[pikaia]

Impact crater 19 miles wide found beneath Greenland glacier.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/14/impact-crater-19-miles-wide-found-beneath-greenland-glacier

[Sleepy]

Thanks pikaia.
I like the last quote by Kjær:

“We live on a planet where you can survey anything and you think you know everything,” said Kjær. “But when you see such a big thing as this hiding in plain sight, you realise that the age of discovery is not over yet.”

[Juan C. García]

Not that we don't know, but it is always good to see it at the news…

Over the past three decades of global warming, the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by a stunning 95 percent, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s annual Arctic Report Card.

The finding suggests that the sea at the top of the world has already morphed into a new and very different state, with major implications not only for creatures such as walruses and polar bears but, in the long term, perhaps for the pace of global warming itself.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.769a171a3d17&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1

NOAA Arctic Report Card:
https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=XntO9a-NpeM

[binntho]

A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The Arctic Is Breaking Climate Records, Altering Weather Worldwide

The Arctic is changing exactly the way scientists thought it would but faster than even the most aggressive predictions. The recent behavior is off the charts.

[Sterks]

Thanks for calling this to attention

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist. Not sure if she's American, but certainly she shows what she wants to show for her goal-article. And it's not that I disagree, but the way she presents it.

"The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, breaking at least a dozen major records in the past three years."
Now it is convenient to look at recent winters, but not summers.
What if the current warm winter three-year period is internal climate variation that can reverse quickly? Does she know for a fact that it is not, and can be extrapolated for other thirty years? But doesn't matter, people will only remember the loomy plots that she presents concerning recent three years. Quite a climatological span of time to draw conclusions.

"Sea ice is disappearing, air temperatures are soaring, permafrost is thawing and glaciers are melting."
Ok. That's news (sarcastically)

"The swift warming is altering the jet stream and polar vortex, prolonging heat waves, droughts, deep freezes and heavy rains worldwide."
There is no scientific proof of this, at all. It is her conjecture with solid basis, but certainly not a demonstrated fact to expose it with such arrogant certainty.

[binntho]

Yes well I've always thought of Scientific American as more journalism than science, although the science articles tend to be of a much better quality than in most other popular publications.

But I'm not sure how harshly the author can be judged based on the three "in brief" bulletpoints that appear before the article itself, which I found to be quite well argued and with the usual caveats.

[Neven]

A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The article is from April 1st.

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.

First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.

[gerontocrat]

A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The article is from April 1st.

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.

First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.

She is one of a rare species, a damn good scientist willing to challenge conventional wisdom, and a damn good communicator.

[binntho]

A new article ...

Yes I only saw the publication date 1st April on my second visit - but the intro explains why it was republished yesterday.

[Sterks]

A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The article is from April 1st.

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.

First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.

Ok sorry for the mistake on the journal name.
Alarmist or not, a scientist should be more restrained the way he or she communicates. We have seen over the years a number of star scientists (not many fortunately) to make bold assertions that have proven wrong by now,... Except for increasing their wallets sizes and their influence in power circles. Which I think, it could be, possibly, in the agenda of Ms. Francis.

[Neven]

Yes I only saw the publication date 1st April on my second visit - but the intro explains why it was republished yesterday.

And I only saw the intro on my second visit! Sorry, all cleared up now. 

Except for increasing their wallets sizes and their influence in power circles. Which I think, it could be, possibly, in the agenda of Ms. Francis.

Anything is possible, but I'm willing to bet my house/farm that this isn't Francis' goal.

[Juan C. García]

"The swift warming is altering the jet stream and polar vortex, prolonging heat waves, droughts, deep freezes and heavy rains worldwide."
There is no scientific proof of this, at all. It is her conjecture with solid basis, but certainly not a demonstrated fact to expose it with such arrogant certainty.

Jennifer Francis has been talking about the alterations of the Jet Stream for several years. This video 5 years old proves that. In climate, we have to wait years to prove that a theory is right. Now, I still think that Jennifer was right 5 years ago. So, from my point of view, Jennifer Francis is an excelent scientist and time is proving that she is right in her theories.



Edit:
I like more this second video, published Feb 26, 2013:

[jdallen]

Concur with Juan.

Francis has been ahead of the curve describing some of the phenomena we see currently.

There is nothing ulterior in her communicating about it, no is it alarmist.

[Sterks]

Concur with Juan.

Francis has been ahead of the curve describing some of the phenomena we see currently.

There is nothing ulterior in her communicating about it, no is it alarmist.

I don't doubt that. Also I am not going to bet against Neven on these matters.
I wish some scientists kept rigor not going too far in their assertions. Al Gore is one thing, a scientist doing as Al Gore is a clown.
I am pretty sure too that I am not in the majority here with this wish.

[Neven]

I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.

[gerontocrat]

I posted this on the unsorted thread, but I think I should have put it here
____________________________________________________________________
One of the few benefits of increasing age is having read stuff written in the 20th Century.

Once upon a time I had a precious book, "The Sea Around Us" written in the late 1940's by Rachel Carson (yes - the author of "Silent Spring") and published in 1951. It was 86 weeks in the best seller list of the New York Times. I foolishly lent it to a "friend".

A stray memory took me to the library, and to my amazement they were able to find me a copy to borrow, and my memory was right. There is a chapter on Arctic Sea Ice and the changing to a warmer climate since about 1900. The basics are all there, retreating sea ice, melting Norwegian glaciers, fish and birds moving north, longer growing seasons and new sea routes open. The basic science is there concerning a layer of cold freshwater overlying warmer, saltier water. Which brings me to submarine waves and Otto Petersson, who published in 1912 a paper "Climatic variations in historic and prehistoric time".

His contention was that the strength of submarine waves depends on the gravitational force exerted by the sun, moon and planets which in turn depend on orbital variations, and that these submarine waves have a far greater amplitude than surface tides. He calculated the most recent major period of maximum tidal action as in AD 1433, the most recent minimum at AD 450 , and the next minimum at AD 2400.. He also calculated minor cycles every 9, 18 and 36 years.

This variation in tidal action was sufficient to force the major changes in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and from that the European climate.

Is it not possible that this science is still valid as a force that can enhance or reduce the effects of AGW? That mixing between that cold freshwater surface layer and deeper warmer, saltier water can be increased during periods of higher tidal action and reduced during periods of lower tidal action? And that in turn depends on variations in the orbits of the planets that are easily calculated using the mathematics of Newton?

Here is the link to Petersson's paper. Fascinating stuff, and think on the years it took to get all the data together.

http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/calen12/petterson_1.html

[Sterks]

I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.

Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.

But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)