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Author Topic: What's new in the Arctic ?  (Read 109619 times)

magnamentis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #300 on: December 14, 2018, 11:28:23 PM »
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.

But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)

a scientist who acts like al gore is a clown and considering who you were talking about it is an insult, further the way of posting was insulting in tone and words and yes, alarmist in the way you and other mean it, to discredit someone, put him/her into a specific drawer with little credibility, is indeed insulting and not only that, it's one of the worst insult of all insults to destroy or damage someone's credibility without other reason than not liking what a person has to say, at least as long as it's not obvious that a statement is either wrong or very improbable.

but even then we could ask for opinions and explanations before making unnecessary bold statements that have no other purposes than to either vent anger or self-profiling. the first, just to say, would be not insulting to say and i did not decide which of the two applies ;) ;)
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Sterks

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #301 on: December 15, 2018, 01:36:02 PM »
All right  :-X

Steven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #302 on: January 19, 2019, 10:03:33 PM »
Bad news about NASA's Operation IceBridge:

Shutdown imperils NASA’s decadelong ice-measuring campaign

Quote
The spreading effects of the partial U.S. government shutdown have reached Earth’s melting poles. IceBridge, a decadelong NASA aerial campaign meant to secure a seamless record of ice loss, has had to sacrifice at least half of what was supposed to be its final spring deployment, its scientists say. The shortened mission threatens a crucial plan to collect overlapping data with a new ice-monitoring satellite called the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)-2.

PS. This was also posted by Kassy in the ICESat-2 thread.

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #303 on: January 24, 2019, 04:48:57 PM »
The UK mainstream media is playing catch-up with this forum....

1. We have discussed this a lot - especially on the Northern Sea Route thread. Where military development goes, pollution and economic development will surely follow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/military-buildup-in-arctic-as-melting-ice-reopens-northern-borders
Military buildup in Arctic as melting ice reopens northern borders
As ice melts and shipping lanes open up, geopolitical tensions are growing and old cold war bases are being reopened

Quote
The climate crisis is intensifying a new military buildup in the Arctic, diplomats and analysts said this week, as regional powers attempt to secure northern borders that were until recently reinforced by a continental-sized division of ice.

That so-called unpaid sentry is now literally melting away, opening up shipping lanes and geo-security challenges, said delegates at the Arctic Frontiers conference, the polar circle’s biggest talking shop, who debated a series of recent escalations.

Russia is reopening and strengthening cold war bases on the Kola peninsula in the far north-west of the country. Norway is beefing up its military presence in the high Arctic.

Last October, Nato staged Trident Juncture with 40,000 troops, its biggest military exercise in Norway in more than a decade. A month earlier Britain announced a new “Defence Arctic Strategy” and promised a 10-year deployment of 800 commandos to Norway and four RAF Typhoons to patrol Icelandic skies. The US is also sending hundreds more marines to the region on long-term rotations and has threatened to send naval vessels through Arctic shipping lanes for the first time.

2. Atlantification - also a major theme in this forum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46976040
'Tipping point' risk for Arctic hotspot
A rapid climate shift under way in the Barents Sea could spread to other Arctic regions, scientists warn.

Quote
The Barents Sea is said to be at a tipping point, changing from an Arctic climate to an Atlantic climate as the water gets warmer.

A conference in Norway heard that the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea – both further to the east - are likely to become the new Arctic frontier.

The scientists warn that it will affect ecosystems.
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mabarnes

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #304 on: January 24, 2019, 06:07:54 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 12:55:40 AM by mabarnes »

Neven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #305 on: January 25, 2019, 12:23:20 PM »
It's been discussed several times in the melting/freezing season threads, but I've forgotten what the potential explanations are.
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Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #306 on: January 25, 2019, 05:33:36 PM »
I remember this hot spot being there for at least two years(and the second SE of Svalbard which is not so warm as well). I doubt whether this is real. I think there should be a fact check by measurements.
The two hot spots are also visible and persistent at http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png

b_lumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #307 on: January 25, 2019, 06:01:50 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

Hey Mabarnes,

noob here myself. Welcome to the forum.

I don't know if it helps, but i found the following link on the topic:

Quote
“The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.
Link >> https://e360.yale.edu/features/alien-waters-neighboring-seas-are-flowing-into-a-warming-arctic-ocean

My pet theory (and total speculation) is that due to the high amount of melting water the AMOC is changing currents slightly. Or, better to say, expands them. The persistent negative SSTA in the south of Greenland is a hint. The cold water sinks down making its way towards equator when a surface current delivers hot water via golf stream to the north (you can also see a strong positive SSTA where the Gulf Stream is). Since there is more meltwater now, the hot water could possibly go up higher latitudes than before.

uniquorn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #308 on: January 25, 2019, 07:04:20 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
It's warm, but probably not that warm. Thread about it here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595

mabarnes

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #309 on: January 26, 2019, 01:32:55 AM »
Thanks Uniquorn...!

So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least.  What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot).  What gives?

I traced down the source for nullschool ... dang spots are on there (in yellow).  Weird!

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png

Rod

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #310 on: January 26, 2019, 05:22:19 AM »


So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least.  What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot).  What gives?


The Argo floats provide real data (assuming they are working).  Nullschool presents modeled data.  Models are certainly helpful, but always beware they might be wrong. 


binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #311 on: February 10, 2019, 01:52:39 AM »
Polar bears invade Novaya Zemlya according to the BBC. The town is on the west coast of the island, but is this year in some way different from previous years when it comes to ice coverage? Is the late freezing of southern Kara perhaps to blame?

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #312 on: February 13, 2019, 09:11:33 PM »
Fossil Fuels, Not Wildfires, Biggest Source of Arctic Black Carbon, Study Finds

Five years of testing at sites across the Arctic tracked seasonal fluctuations and sources of a climate pollutant that contributes to global warming and ice melt.

...

Some people think it's biofuels and wildfires, but our main takeaway is that fossil fuels are the main source of black carbon in the Arctic," said Patrik Winiger of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the lead author of a study published today in the journal Science Advances.

His team found that about 70 percent of the black carbon in the Arctic currently comes from fossil fuel burning in Northern countries. They tracked changes in black carbon levels in the atmosphere through the seasons over five years and used chemical analyses to determine the pollution's origins.

During winters, they found that emissions from fossil fuel burning made up the majority of black carbon accumulations.

During the summer, when overall black carbon concentrations are lower, emissions from wildfires and agricultural burning were bigger sources.

for details see:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022019/arctic-warming-greenland-black-carbon-source-fossil-fuels-wildfires-studyhttps://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022019/arctic-warming-greenland-black-carbon-source-fossil-fuels-wildfires-study

Ravenken

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #313 on: February 20, 2019, 06:57:56 AM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

Yeah, I've seen that too but I have a different theory then other presented. Check out the continental shelf in relation to this 'thermal' exchange. Also, notice that there is a current of hot water running north along the european coastline for some time even when we get that cool area south of Greenland. Heat is still making its way north and I think that it HAS heated the methane clathrates in the continental shelf area. If you go over to NOAA MetOp-1 and look near the surface (around 930mb) you will see the methane signature.
Methane hydrates are a temp/pressure. When you have heavy release you will change the density of the water above you (i.e. pressure).
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #314 on: March 07, 2019, 06:05:15 PM »
Report to Congress on Changes in the Arctic
https://news.usni.org/2019/03/06/report-congress-changes-arctic-5

March 4, 2019 Congressional Research Service report

... Record low extents of Arctic sea ice over the past decade have focused scientific and policy attention on links to global climate change and projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. These changes have potential consequences for weather in the United States, access to mineral and biological resources in the Arctic, the economies and cultures of peoples in the region, and national security.

... Changes to the Arctic brought about by warming temperatures will likely allow more exploration for oil, gas, and minerals. Warming that causes permafrost to melt could pose challenges to onshore exploration activities. Increased oil and gas exploration and tourism (cruise ships) in the Arctic increase the risk of pollution in the region. Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters will be more difficult than in other areas, primarily because effective strategies for cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters have yet to be developed.

Changes in the Arctic could affect threatened and endangered species, and could result in migration of fish stocks to new waters.
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Ktb

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #315 on: March 15, 2019, 08:49:06 PM »
Quote
Unless humanity makes very rapid and deep pollution cuts, Arctic winter temperatures will rise 5.4° to 9.0°F (3° to 5°C) by 2050 — and will reach an astounding 9° to 16°F (5° to 8.8°C) by 2080 — according to a report by the U.N. Environment Program released Wednesday.

https://thinkprogress.org/devastating-arctic-warming-locked-in-warns-un-48e55348514b/

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Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #316 on: March 16, 2019, 08:27:00 PM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube . The channel's name is "Just have a Think". The author will put more videos like this online over the next weeks. They are based on the latest Arctic Report Card subjects.

Juan C. García

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #317 on: March 17, 2019, 04:17:14 AM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube

Excellent video Stephan!

Makes me wonder if, apart from the "like" button, we could have a "keep" button, in which we can mark the posts that we really like and we want to have a way to keep them mark for future reference.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.