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Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #350 on: May 31, 2019, 07:43:31 PM »
Great work tealight. Thanks a million!

Tealight

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #351 on: June 02, 2019, 01:11:20 AM »
RE Tealight #348
Nice work!  That would be great addition to NSIDC website.

The NSIDC has the sea ice comparison tool, but it takes forever to load. Another issue with it is showing only extent and not sea ice concentration.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #352 on: June 04, 2019, 06:22:01 PM »
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Stokes Summer Heat Waves in Southern U.S.   
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-06-loss-arctic-sea-ice-stokes.html


Composites of summer extreme (left panels) and oppressive heat wave (right panels) frequency during summers of low (top), neutral (middle) and high (bottom) Hudson Bay sea ice extent. Credit: AGU   

A new study in AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres explores how seasonal fluctuations of sea ice coverage trigger changes in atmospheric circulation patterns during the boreal summer.

The study draws upon four decades of satellite data of Arctic sea ice coverage collected between 1979 and 2016, overlapped with heat wave frequency data across the United States during the same time period.

The team found evidence for a strong statistical relationship between the extent of summer sea ice in the Hudson Bay and heat waves across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S 

Quote
... "The latest research on this topic suggests that declining Arctic sea ice may be linked to increased incidence of extreme weather patterns across the northern hemisphere," said Dagmar Budikova, a climatologist at Illinois State University in Normal and lead author of the new study. "Our results confirm this hypothesis by offering further evidence that Arctic sea ice variability has the potential to influence extreme summer temperatures and the frequency of heat waves across the southern U.S."

The new study finds the loss of sea ice across the Arctic begins with warmer-than-usual spring temperatures in the Hudson Bay and Labrador regions in the southeastern Canadian Arctic.

"This process starts when temperatures across the southeastern Canadian Arctic and northwestern Atlantic are 2 degrees [Celsius] warmer than expected in March, April and May," Budikova said.

This springtime warming lessens the north-to-south change in temperature between the high and middle latitudes of eastern North America, leading to a reduction in the strength of regional wind patterns. These conditions are symptomatic of weakened large-scale movements of air that appear to persist into the summer months, Budikova said.

Dagmar Budikova et al. United States Heat Wave Frequency and Arctic Ocean Marginal Sea Ice Variability, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019)
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binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #353 on: June 08, 2019, 05:00:02 AM »
Great pictures in this article from the Guardian. And the article itself is quite good and had (for me) some previous unknown, such as:

Quote
Depending on how the ice is formed, it can be permeable and elastic, with space inside that can be colonised by bacteria, fungal spores and the tiny creatures that feed on them such as the transparent jellyfish Sympagohydra tuuli, which squeezes inside the cracks in the ice to hunt for food.

Also interesting to see the floes in the Fram strait, particularly the amount of snow that seems to coverthem.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #354 on: June 14, 2019, 04:16:23 AM »
Melting Arctic Ice Opens a New Fiber Optic Cable Route 
https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/telecom/internet/melting-sea-ice-opens-the-floodgate-for-a-new-fiber-optic-cable-route



Helsinki-based Cinia, which owns and operates about 15,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable, and MegaFon, a Russian telecommunications operator, signed a memorandum of understanding to lay a fiber optic cable across the Arctic Ocean. The cable, if built, would not only reduce latency between users in Europe, Asia, and North America, but provide some much-needed geographical diversity to the world’s undersea cable infrastructure.

... Ari-Jussi Knaapila, the CEO of Cinia, estimates that the planned Arctic cable, which would stretch from London to Alaska, would shorten the physical cable distance between Europe and the western coast of North America by 20 to 30 percent. Additional cable will extend the route down to China and Japan, for a planned total of 10,000 kilometers of new cable.

... Stringing a cable across the Arctic Ocean is not a new idea, though other proposed projects, including the semi-built Arctic Fibre project, have never been completed. In the past, the navigational season in the Arctic was too short to easily build undersea cables. Now, melting sea ice due to climate change is expanding that window and making it more feasibl
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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opensheart

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Expedition to drift through arctic ocean
« Reply #355 on: June 14, 2019, 04:11:48 PM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/science/arctic-sea-ice-expedition-to-study-climate-change/?utm_term=.175977fb66ac&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

Quote
these scientists and several hundred others will launch the largest Arctic research expedition in history: a 12-month, $134 million, 17-nation effort to document climate change in the fastest-warming part of the globe.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #356 on: June 14, 2019, 04:13:56 PM »
That's awesome. YEY science! \o/

be cause

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #357 on: June 14, 2019, 04:38:49 PM »
^^^ .. I hope there will still be a floe for them to attach to come the fall . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

longwalks1

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #358 on: June 14, 2019, 06:15:43 PM »
No SciHub for the WaPo.  I'm blocked,  More details please on the 12 month expedition or alternate sources


SteveMDFP

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #359 on: June 14, 2019, 08:06:20 PM »
No SciHub for the WaPo.  I'm blocked,  More details please on the 12 month expedition or alternate sources

Voila.  Just don't report me to the copyright police, please.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #360 on: June 18, 2019, 10:05:00 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #361 on: July 22, 2019, 10:00:01 PM »
Northernmost Alaska.
Quote
Rick Thoman (@AlaskaWx) 7/21/19, 9:43 PM
The Chukchi Sea offshore of Utqiaġvik has been largely #seaice free since early June and July is sure to have 0% ice coverage. The change in July extent since the 1990s is astounding. Sunday PM photo courtesy @IARC_Alaska. #akwx #Arctic
https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1153118308083703808
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #362 on: July 26, 2019, 05:15:21 PM »
Melting Ice May Change Shape of Arctic River Deltas
https://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2019/07/25/melting-ice-may-change-shape-of-arctic-river-deltas/

Thawing ice cover and easily erodible permafrost may destabilize Arctic river deltas, according to new research.

A new study in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters finds sea ice and permafrost both act to stabilize channels on Arctic river deltas.

"Your channels tend to stay in one place when you have really thick ice or when you have permafrost that's really hard to erode," said Rebecca Lauzon, environmental educator at the Rochester Museum and Science Center's Cumming Nature Center in New York and the lead author of the new study.

Ice cover on Arctic deltas is expected to thin while permafrost is expected to thaw along the banks of Arctic rivers due to climate change.

The new study finds these changes could destabilize deltas in the far north of the globe, making them less resilient to rising sea levels. Less stable deltas could also impact Arctic ecosystems, creating winners and losers among delta species and even affecting the global carbon cycle.

... Previous research on Arctic river deltas found that permafrost along the banks of rivers affected riverbank erosion rate, and thick ice covers resulted in constricted and faster river flow.

The study's authors found that when ice cover is thicker on rivers, or with more stable permafrost along the banks, river deltas tended to be characterized by deeper, more stable channels which acted as funnels, carrying sediment out to the ocean.

But thinner ice or more easily erodible permafrost along the banks caused the deltas to destabilize, with shallower water channels cutting through shifting sediment banks.

Part of the reason these channels become less stable is due to a loss of overbank flooding, which decreases with thinner ice and more erodible permafrost. Overbank flooding, which happens with thick ice cover and more resistant permafrost, causes sediment to be deposited along the tops of channel banks. Over time this results in higher riverbanks, which increases the stability of deltas.


Rebecca Lauzon et al. Ice and permafrost effects on delta morphology and channel dynamics, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)

Trump DOE actively blocking publicly funded research

https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1525858-ice-permafrost-effects-delta-morphology-channel-dynamics

This content will become publicly available on June 6, 2020
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gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #363 on: August 04, 2019, 11:14:16 PM »
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/04/russia-floating-nuclear-power-station-chernobyl-on-ice
Fears of 'Chernobyl on ice' as Russia prepares floating nuclear plant
Scepticism and safety concerns persist before vessel begins 4,000-mile Arctic journey

Quote
“I feel like I’m one of the first cosmonauts going into space,” said Vladimir Irminku, one of the chief engineers of the Akademik Lomonosov, as he stood on the deck of the giant, box-like platform on a chilly summer morning at Kola Bay in the Barents Sea.

Russia is planning to dispatch the vessel, its first floating nuclear power station, on a 4,000-mile journey along the Northern Sea Route, in a milestone for the country’s growing use of nuclear power in its plans for Arctic expansion.

If all goes to plan, the Akademik Lomonosov will be towed to the Arctic port of Pevek this month, where it will use its twin nuclear reactors to provide heat and energy to homes and support mining and drilling operations in Russia’s mineral-rich Chukotka region.

Russia claims the project will provide clean energy to the remote region and allow authorities to retire an ageing nuclear plant and a coal-burning power station.

But the Akademik Lomonosov has raised safety concerns among environmental groups, including accusations from Greenpeace that it could be a “floating Chernobyl”, and doubts about whether floating nuclear power stations meant to provide power to remote regions are economically viable.

The Northern Sea Route – shipping lanes opened by melting ice sheets in the Arctic – presents new trade routes between China and Europe that Russia hopes to make navigable year-round.

The prospect of lucrative trade routes, as well as the region’s military importance, has led to a proliferation of nuclear-powered icebreakers, submarines and other high-tech nuclear technologies in the Arctic region.

Thomas Nilsen, the editor of the Barents Observer newspaper, based in the Norwegian town of Kirkenes, has estimated that by 2035, the Russian Arctic “will by far be the most nuclearised waters on the planet”.
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #364 on: August 08, 2019, 09:58:15 PM »
Over a Century of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reconstructed With Help From Historic Ships' Logs
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-century-arctic-sea-ice-volume.html



Our knowledge of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean comes mostly through satellites, which since 1979 have imaged the dwindling extent of sea ice from above. The University of Washington's Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean and Modeling System, or PIOMAS, is a leading tool for gauging the thickness of that ice. Until now that system has gone back only as far as 1979.

A new paper now extends the estimate of Arctic sea ice volume back more than a century, to 1901. To do so it used both modern-day computer simulations and historic observations, some written by hand in the early 1900s aboard precursors to today's U.S. Coast Guard ships

"This extends the record of sea ice thickness variability from 40 years to 110 years, which allows us to put more recent variability and ice loss in perspective," said Axel Schweiger, a sea ice scientist at the UW's Applied Physics Laboratory and first author of the study published in the August issue of the Journal of Climate.

"The volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean today and the current rate of loss are unprecedented in the 110-year record," he added.

Open Access: Axel J. Schweiger et al, Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction, Journal of Climate[/I ] (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #365 on: August 10, 2019, 01:24:00 AM »
Ten Years of Icy Data Show the Flow of Heat from the Arctic Seafloor
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/ugs-tyo080819.php

... The analysis also shows that high heat flow variability on Alpha Ridge, which was formed when a mantle hotspot triggered the creation of the High Arctic Large Igneous Province, is consistent with thin sediment cover over fractured basement rock permeated by circulating fluids.



https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JB017587
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #366 on: August 10, 2019, 09:15:14 PM »
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.

If not power - at least fallout ...

See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,776.msg220708.html#msg220708

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #367 on: August 11, 2019, 04:41:09 PM »
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.


The Barents Observer has recently published an overview (pdf) listing the increasing number of reactors in the Russian Arctic. The paper is part of Barents Observer’s analytical popular science studies on developments in the Euro-Arctic Region.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/atom-rapport_barents_observer_1.pdf

According to the list there are 39 nuclear-powered vessels or installations in the Russian Arctic today with a total of 62 reactors. This includes 31 submarines, one surface warship, five icebreakers, two onshore and one floating nuclear power plants.




Looking 15 years ahead, the number of ships, including submarines, and installations powered by reactors is estimated to increase to 74 with a total of 94 reactors, maybe as many as 114.
Additional to new icebreakers and submarines already under construction, Russia is brushing dust of older Soviet ideas of utilizing nuclear-power for different kind of Arctic shelf industrial developments, like oil- and gas exploration, mining and research.  “By 2035, the Russian Arctic will be the most nuclearized waters on the planet,” the paper reads.

Also, existing icebreakers and submarines get life-time prolongation. The average age of the Northern Fleet’s nuclear-powered submarines has never been older than today. Several of the submarines built in the 1980s will continue to sail the Barents Sea and under the Arctic ice-cap until the late 2020s.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2019/08/severodvinsk-authorities-confirm-mysterious-brief-radiation-spike-after-missile
« Last Edit: August 11, 2019, 07:50:10 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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DrTskoul

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #368 on: August 11, 2019, 05:13:24 PM »
Ah, it feels me with warm and fuzzy feelings... must be the gamma radiation...

 :o :o :o

nanning

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #369 on: August 11, 2019, 07:46:12 PM »
"nuclearized waters"
:) hihihi
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HapHazard

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #370 on: August 11, 2019, 08:40:10 PM »
"nuclearized waters"

So that means: radiation > water glows in the dark > no more dark winter in the arctic > perennial BOE imminent!

 8)
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 01:20:59 AM by HapHazard »

ghoti

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #371 on: August 11, 2019, 11:01:34 PM »
Lightning storms north of 85N are a new phenomenon aren't they?

https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1160571125673238530

Convective storms that far north can't be good for ice.

Archimid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #372 on: August 12, 2019, 04:44:29 AM »

So that means: radiation > water glows in the dark > no more dark winter in the arctic > perennial BOE GOE imminent!

 8)

Wait a minute. It is common knowledge that radiation glows green. Fixed it for you.
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #373 on: August 12, 2019, 06:48:40 PM »
I don't know if I'd agree with their conclusion ...

Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Has 'Minimal Influence' On Severe Cold Winter Weather, Research Shows
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-arctic-sea-ice-loss-minimal-severe.html

The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice through climate change has only a "minimal influence" on severe cold winter weather across Asia and North America, new research has shown.



... a new study by experts from the University of Exeter, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the Energy and Sustainability Research Institute in Groningen, has shed new light on the link between sea-ice loss and cold winters.

For the research, the international team combined observations over the past 40 years with results from sophisticated climate modelling experiments. They found that the observations and models agreed that reduced regional sea ice and cold winters often coincide which each other.

They found that the correlation between reduced sea ice and extreme winters across the mid-latitude occurs because both are simultaneously driven by the same, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

Crucially, it shows that reduced sea ice only has a minimal influence on whether a harsh and severe winter will occur.


The study is published in leading science journal, Nature Climate Change.



... Recent studies have suggested that the reduced sea ice or Arctic warming has contributed to recent cold winters experienced in the mid-latitude region—and that as the sea-ice reduces further through climate change, cold winters will become more frequent and severe.

Now, this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation.

Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes, Nature Climate Change (2019)
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TeaPotty

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #374 on: August 12, 2019, 07:53:10 PM »
I think we can assume Climate Change is causing the atmospheric circulation changes that are outside of historical norms, unless proven otherwise, which they claim is indeed causing more severe winters.

I don't understand how they just flatly claim that the atmospheric circulation changes are "random", and therefore the severe winters are not caused by Climate Change. It doesn't look like they proved this at all.

petm

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #375 on: August 12, 2019, 08:32:00 PM »
From the abstract (I don't have access to the full article), it doesn't seem they are claiming that climate change is not causing more severe winters. What they are claiming is that sea ice loss does not cause more severe winters, but rather results from the same underlying cause, namely changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

Quote
Abstract

Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data. Models capture the observed correlations between reduced sea ice and cold mid-latitude winters, but only when reduced sea ice coincides with anomalous heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, implying that the atmosphere is driving the loss. Causal inference from the physics-based approach is corroborated by a lead–lag analysis, showing that circulation-driven temperature anomalies precede, but do not follow, reduced sea ice. Furthermore, no mid-latitude cooling is found in modelling experiments with imposed future sea-ice loss. Our results show robust support for anomalous atmospheric circulation simultaneously driving cold mid-latitude winters and mild Arctic conditions, and reduced sea ice having a minimal influence on severe mid-latitude winters.


This part of the news story (not from the scientific article):
Quote
this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation

... is probably wrong. Most likely a journalist writing above his pay grade.

Sterks

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #376 on: August 12, 2019, 08:59:50 PM »
<snip, again, it will sometimes take up to 24-36 hours for me to moderate stuff. Try to keep your patience and don't lash out, so as to prevent vicious cycles/spirals; N.>
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 09:40:00 PM by Neven »

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #377 on: August 12, 2019, 09:25:14 PM »
 Correlation is not equal to Causation
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Archimid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #378 on: August 12, 2019, 11:44:38 PM »
No access to the paper.

How do they define "cold weather"? Do they test for temperatures or snow?
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El Cid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #379 on: August 13, 2019, 10:27:14 PM »
I had shown this one before. The past 10 winters vs climatic average.

NH midlatitude winters are getting warmer as the Arctic gets warmer. Period.

wdmn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #380 on: August 13, 2019, 11:46:08 PM »
But if you take the last 6 winters/early spring you see a clear, and strong cooling anomaly centred on the Great Lakes.

This also shows up in lake ice coverage.

And then there was the paper from earlier in the year:

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-arctic-weather-extremes-latitudes.html

Atmospheric researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) have developed a climate model that can accurately depict the frequently observed winding course of the jet stream, a major air current over the Northern Hemisphere. The breakthrough came when the scientists combined their global climate model with a new machine learning algorithm on ozone chemistry. Using the combined model, they demonstrate that the jet stream's wavelike course in winter and subsequent extreme weather conditions like cold air outbreaks in Central Europe and North America are the direct result of climate change.

....

In addition, with the new model the researchers can also more closely analyze the causes of the meandering jet stream. "Our study shows that the changes in the jet stream are at least partly due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. If the ice cover continues to dwindle, we believe that both the frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events previously observed in the middle latitudes will increase," says Prof Markus Rex, Head of Atmospheric Research at the AWI. "In addition, our findings confirm that the more frequently occurring cold phases in winter in the U.S., Europe and Asia are by no means a contradiction to global warming; rather, they are a part of anthropogenic climate change."



These papers seem to contradict one another... and yet there is no way for me to determine which one is correct... frustrating.

petm

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #381 on: August 14, 2019, 12:30:46 AM »
These papers seem to contradict one another... and yet there is no way for me to determine which one is correct... frustrating.

They certainly do. The joys of science! I think you'd need a few long talks with experts to get a sense of the nuances. Personally I'm skeptical that there's no feedback from low ice to subsequent jet stream weakening and it would take a lot more than one paper convince me (especially if I can't even read that paper!). But then again, I know almost nothing about it.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #382 on: August 14, 2019, 12:56:37 AM »
Arctic Ocean Could Have No September Sea Ice If Global Average Temperatures Increase by 2 degrees
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-arctic-ocean-september-sea-ice.html

Arctic sea ice could disappear completely through September each summer if average global temperatures increase by as little as 2 degrees, according to a new study by the University of Cincinnati.

The study by an international team of researchers was published in Nature Communications.

The study predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be completely ice-free in September with as little as 2 degrees Celsius of temperature change. Limiting warming to 2 degrees is the stated goal of the 2009 Paris Agreement, the international effort to curb carbon emissions to address warming. The Trump Administration withdrew the United States as a participant in 2017.

"Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear between approximately 2 and 2.5 degrees of global warming," the study said. "Yet limiting the warming to 2 degrees (as proposed under the Paris agreement) may not be sufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic Ocean."



The researchers applied the new statistical method to climate model projections of the 21st century. Using the climate models, the authors found at least a 6% probability that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will disappear with warming of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. At 2 degrees, the likelihood increases to 28%.

Open Access: R. Olson et al, A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models, Nature Communications (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #383 on: August 14, 2019, 07:26:41 AM »
Just if somebody had missed this: The "cold blob" south of Greenland that is so prominent in El Cid's post above (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg221836.html#msg221836) has just pulled a disappearing act!

Since sometime in June/July it's been rapidly disappearing, and the latest SST anomaly maps show very warm waters there instead,.

nanning

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #384 on: August 14, 2019, 07:44:30 AM »
binntho, I see a large cold blob in the north atlantic between France and Canada. Maybe it moved south? Too simple explanation?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #385 on: August 14, 2019, 07:45:47 AM »
binntho, I see a large cold blob in the north atlantic between France and Canada. Maybe it moved south? Too simple explanation?
Yes, one might be tempted to think so, but parts of the oceans are cold and parts are warm, and they keep shifting around. The "cold blob" was so interesting because it just stayed there for years on end.

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #386 on: August 14, 2019, 07:56:25 AM »
I made an animation from the SST anomaly images from June, July and August. Click to run.

nanning

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #387 on: August 14, 2019, 08:54:43 AM »
Warmed meltwater runoff from Greenland? A change in currents? How deep is this warmer layer, maybe just a thin warm fresher water surface layer and no mixing?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #388 on: August 14, 2019, 09:22:54 AM »
Well, there were some theories re. the cold blob, including that it was just a very thin layer of slightly colder water due to increased NW winds in recent years.

Since the NE branch of the AMOC (i.e. the one on the other side of the cold blob) didn't really show any slow-down, the guess was that it was just a thin surface layer.

But I must admit that this is just speculation and hearsay, other people know a lot more about this than I do!

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #389 on: Today at 01:56:28 AM »
Russia Bans Norway's Hurtigruten Cruise Ships From Entering Its Arctic Waters
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/08/17/russia-bans-norways-hurtigruten-cruise-ships-from-entering-arctic-waters/amp/

A Norwegian cruise company has been refused entry to Russian waters above the Arctic circle just two weeks before sailing. The Hurtigruten expedition ship MS Spitsbergen had been due to sail from Tromsø in northern Norway to Murmansk via Franz Josef Land, a remote Russian archipelago inhabited only by Russian military.

Bjørnflaten said they had been informed that the Russian military have planned exercises in the region at the same time.

The Barents Observer reported that 30 Russian naval vessels, including surface ships, submarines and supply ships took part in the exercise last week. Norway’s chief of defence said that Russia wants to show that it can prevent NATO from operating in the North Atlantic.

The area is now viewed with much more military strategic importance,” senior researcher Julie Wilhelmsen said to NRK.

She added that the Hurtigruten ships will be viewed by Russia not just as civilian ships, but as vessel that could be utilized for military purposes such as intelligence gathering.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Juan C. García

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #390 on: Today at 04:37:00 AM »
Russia Bans Norway's Hurtigruten Cruise Ships From Entering Its Arctic Waters
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/08/17/russia-bans-norways-hurtigruten-cruise-ships-from-entering-arctic-waters/amp/
I would not discard that it is a immediate response to Trump's intention of buying Greenland. A lot of "fossil fuel money" on the Arctic and seems that the governments don't care that we can suffer an abrupt climate change in the mean time.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #391 on: Today at 04:53:09 AM »
Interesting news that could also be related:

Quote
The Next Chernobyl Could Be at Sea

Later this month, a flotilla of tugboats will leave Murmansk, a port in Russia's northwest, towing the Akademik Lomonosov, a floating nuclear power plant. The ships will travel 3,700 miles east to Pavek, a remote port in Russia's northeast. There the plant's two small reactors will power homes, as well as mining and drilling operations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-16/russia-china-are-leading-push-for-floating-nuclear-power-plants
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.