Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: What's new in the Arctic ?  (Read 144413 times)

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2685
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1042
  • Likes Given: 1575
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #450 on: December 17, 2019, 01:35:46 PM »
Earth's Magnetic Field is Changing Too Much - Should We Worry?

Beware, this user bites.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2310
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #451 on: December 17, 2019, 03:32:29 PM »
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?

Because it would be fun.
IIRC, you would need the equivalent of weather forecasts to figure out where the poles will be in a week, and/or you could have three, four or more poles.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1624
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 230
  • Likes Given: 10974
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #452 on: December 17, 2019, 05:13:21 PM »
I wouldn't worry about that. We all know the BIG PROBLEMS.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2685
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1042
  • Likes Given: 1575
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #453 on: December 17, 2019, 05:20:37 PM »
IIRC, you would need the equivalent of weather forecasts to figure out where the poles will be in a week

Nah, the process is so slow, a glacier was called Speedy Gonzales by it once. ;)
Beware, this user bites.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3274
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 238
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #454 on: December 17, 2019, 05:25:43 PM »
Re: next magnetic reversal
Call it "God's" solution to overpopulation and the 'consequent' climate chaos?  She (He or It, I cannot decide) has more tools up her sleeve than some of us thought!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2685
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1042
  • Likes Given: 1575
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #455 on: December 22, 2019, 04:36:03 PM »
Putin’s new Arctic law paves way for biggest ever industrialization in icy north

Offshore oil, liquified natural gas and the petrochemical industry will soon benefit from big tax cuts in new Arctic projects.


Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/putins-new-arctic-law-paves-way-biggest-ever-industrialization-worlds
Beware, this user bites.

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 499
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #456 on: January 20, 2020, 12:10:20 PM »
Low sulphur fuel found to have higher black carbon emissions than HSFO

Mandated into law for less than three weeks and very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), shipping’s new number one bunkering choice, is already facing calls to be banned, especially in Arctic waters.

A submission made by Finland and Germany to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) suggests VLSFO has higher black carbon emissions than its forebear, high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).

...

“New hybrid fuels with 0.50% sulphur content used in the study contained a high proportion of aromatic compounds in a range of 70% to 95%, which resulted in increased [black carbon] emissions in a range of 10% to 85% compared to HFO,” the study claimed. The higher emissions were most noticeable when the engine was running at less than full capacity.

...

The black carbon news has quickly seen a number of NGOs call for VLSFO found to have high aromatic contents to be banned for ships transiting Artic waters.

https://splash247.com/low-sulphur-fuel-found-to-have-higher-black-carbon-emissions-than-hsfo/
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 372
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #457 on: January 22, 2020, 05:51:55 PM »
Ok, here's a very random observation.  I have a solar array on my house and was just playing around with some of my output data.  The array has been in place since 2011.  I just noticed that the first four months of 2012 are all the highest output for that month in the 9 year record. That is, January 2012 output was the highest of any of 9 Januaries since I had the array, February was the highest February, March was the highest March, and April was the highest April.  And the difference is not even close.  Here at 39.29° N, 76.61° W winter/early spring 2012 was VERY, unusually sunny.  Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #458 on: January 23, 2020, 03:02:22 AM »
Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!
Possibly related observation about 2012 -

     By filtering out long-term CO2 driven trend, ENSO (El Nino), Solar cycle, and Aerosol values, it is possible to remove a large portion of the year to year variation in annual average NASA GISS temperature for every one of the past 11 years except for 2012.  But the "model" fails miserably for predicting the difference between 2012 and 2011.  The only other year with a negative correlation between the model estimate and observed value also involves 2012 - the difference between 2013 and 2012. 

    So for reasons unknown to me (BTW - I'm not a climate scientist, just another ASIF onlooker hanging around the scene of the crime), 2012 was an oddball year with respect to a robust pattern that applies quite strongly to every other of the 11 years in 2009-2019.

    Of course, for the Arctic Ocean we have the great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012 to explain why Extent tanked that year.  Worth noting that
   a) the ASI low Volume record set in 2012 is much less extreme than the Extent record, and
   b) Extent and Volume recovered rather quickly. 

    Thus it seems that while 2012 remains an epic event in recent ASI history, it was largely a short-term disturbance that brought submerged heat to the surface and created a drastic but short-lived effect on Extent.  That loss of heat energy led to a pseudo-recovery over the following years.

    In comparison, while 2019 did not break the 2012 record, it shows a broader impact of continued warming in the condition of the remaining ice that is thinner, saltier, and less resistant to melt; has lost virtually all of the thickest multi-year "anchor" ice; and reflects a system that has been functionally altered (e.g. loss of Beaufort Gyre nursery). 

    While some idiot with bad hair might claim that "Hey, there's more September Arctic sea ice now than there was 7 years ago, what's the problem?", the situation is actually much more dire than a simple accounting of Extent or Area, or even the more informative Thickness and Volume, indicate.  The ASI is like a termite-riddled wooden beam.  The surface appearance does not fully indicate the structural weakness within. 

     I suspect that the next Arctic Cyclone with similar storm energy as the 2012 event will cause even more dramatic damage than 2012 because it will be interacting with a thinner and more fractured ice pack, will have longer wind fetch for wave generation from more open water, and have much higher levels of submerged heat energy to bring up.  In addition to all that, the probability of a storm as strong or stronger than 2012 increases with the continued warming of Arctic ocean water, more frequent and intense incursions of warm air masses, increasing Arctic humidity, weakening of the polar jet, Atlantification etc. 

    All amateur speculation of course, by someone who knows just enough to be emphatically wrong, but hey my GISS model works (except for 2012)!

    PS Lest you think I exaggerate the potential correlation between bad hair and stupidity, one such person recently tweeted that New York City should get ready with mops and buckets instead of considering an expensive public works infrastructure project to reduce risk from rising sea level.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 11:00:35 PM by Glen Koehler »

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #459 on: January 23, 2020, 06:52:05 AM »
Ok, here's a very random observation.  I have a solar array on my house and was just playing around with some of my output data.  The array has been in place since 2011.  I just noticed that the first four months of 2012 are all the highest output for that month in the 9 year record. That is, January 2012 output was the highest of any of 9 Januaries since I had the array, February was the highest February, March was the highest March, and April was the highest April.  And the difference is not even close.  Here at 39.29° N, 76.61° W winter/early spring 2012 was VERY, unusually sunny.  Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!
I'd be careful to assume that the amount of solar energy available was the cause here. Solar arrays do degrade with time, and they do become dirty. So unless proven wrong, I'd assume that this is what you are seeing - solar cell degradation, not fall in solar energy.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

El Cid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 708
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 234
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #460 on: January 23, 2020, 07:37:39 AM »
Solar cell degradation is much slower than that, something like 1% per year. But it is possible that they got dirty (lots of dust around maybe?) Do you clean your cells regularly? Dirt could explain it

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #461 on: January 23, 2020, 07:56:33 AM »
Solar cell degradation is much slower than that, something like 1% per year. But it is possible that they got dirty (lots of dust around maybe?) Do you clean your cells regularly? Dirt could explain it

Well, reading what people write is an important but all-too-often ignored capability. This time it was me that didn't bother to read the full post from dnem, but he clearly says that there was a big difference (hence degradation is out) and that  differences in cloud cover were clearly the cause.

On the other hand, given the location in down-town Baltimore, dust would presumably also be a big factor, but easy to fix.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 372
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #462 on: January 23, 2020, 12:36:43 PM »
No, Bintho, I'm pretty good with data and look closely at my output.  I have microinverters so I can look at per panel output in 5 minute increments.  One way I look at degradation is to look at peak panel production and I have noticed very little degradation at all.  I'll post how big this outlier was when I get a chance, but it was big.  It was VERY sunny (not very cloudy!) in Bawlmer in winter/spring 2012.  Sunny enough that I think it says something real about the winter storm track, prevailing winds and weather pattern during that time.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #463 on: January 23, 2020, 01:31:56 PM »
No, Bintho, I'm pretty good with data and look closely at my output.  I have microinverters so I can look at per panel output in 5 minute increments.  One way I look at degradation is to look at peak panel production and I have noticed very little degradation at all.  I'll post how big this outlier was when I get a chance, but it was big.  It was VERY sunny (not very cloudy!) in Bawlmer in winter/spring 2012.  Sunny enough that I think it says something real about the winter storm track, prevailing winds and weather pattern during that time.
Well, yes, degradation is probably less than 1% per year. And when it is VERY sunny, changes in cloud cover would be presumably be the direct cause! What the ultimate cause may be I leave to others to ponder.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 372
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #464 on: January 23, 2020, 05:23:33 PM »
Sorry to clutter this thread with this stuff, but thought some that responded might find it interesting. When I got my system, the installer provided a monthly predicted output based on the orientation, angle and potential for shading of my system.  I used that to standardize the data, with monthly output expressed as a percentage of the predicted value for that month.  First I just averaged each year's monthly Actual/Predicted to look at degradation. A linear regression through the values indicates a decay of 0.29% year.

Then I plotted every month as a percentage of that month's prediction for all years 2011 through 2018.  Early 2012 stands out as a long period of high output, sunny weather.

I had some system issues in 2018 that make the second half of the year's data suspect.



binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #465 on: January 28, 2020, 09:11:20 AM »
Interesting article on the effects that the changes in Arctic sea ice cover may be having on tropical weather systems.

Turns out that even if El Ninos do not effect the sea ice, less sea ice may effect the specific location of El Ninos which again has a domino effect on other weather patterns.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change
« Last Edit: January 29, 2020, 05:18:52 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 499
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #466 on: January 28, 2020, 01:33:16 PM »
Please edit links down to their normal format:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change

All the rest is fb tracking crap.

ETA interesting indeed. Including how it possibly feeds back on the Bering sea ice.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/01/21/1717707117
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2310
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 494
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #467 on: January 28, 2020, 02:30:24 PM »
last:
So you delete back to and including the question mark?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 499
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #468 on: January 28, 2020, 02:38:14 PM »
Yes , the questionmark signals the trackers start.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2685
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1042
  • Likes Given: 1575
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #469 on: January 28, 2020, 02:58:19 PM »
Quote
Typical URL containing a query string is as follows:

http://example.com/over/there?name=ferret

When a server receives a request for such a page, it may run a program, passing the query string, which in this case is, name=ferret unchanged, to the program. The question mark is used as a separator, and is not part of the query string.

Meaning, everything after the question mark can easily be dismissed, can contain tracking code.
Beware, this user bites.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4127
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 517
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #470 on: January 28, 2020, 03:58:17 PM »
Interesting article on the effects that the changes in Arctic sea ice cover may be having on tropical weather systems.

Turns out that even if El Ninos do not effect the sea ice, less sea ice may effect the specific location of El Ninos which again has a domino effect on other weather patterns.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR0KN0oBsTrcQexueQkPcGt6yoLahuwv1YVrMTCB8eXqgtLgGCgLVVvbiKc

Thanks for the link. Well worth the read.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1203
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #471 on: January 28, 2020, 06:06:14 PM »
Artificial Intelligence Helps Experts Forecast Icebergs
https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/artificial-intelligence-helps-experts-forecast-icebergs-climate-atlantic-study-geography-1.879632



A recently published control systems model has been used to predict that between 479 and 1,015 icebergs will reach waters south of 48°N—the area of greatest risk to shipping traveling between Europe and north-east North America—in 2020, compared with 1,515 observed there last year.

In an innovative new model approach, the team have used experimental artificial intelligence analysis to independently support the low iceberg number prediction while also predicting a rapid early rise in the number of icebergs in this area during the ice season of January to September.

The findings are supplied to the International Ice Patrol (IIP) to inform resource use for better regular ice forecasts during the season. The seasonal forecast suggests that the probability of an iceberg encounter for ships in the north-west Atlantic will be less than it was last year.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #472 on: January 28, 2020, 09:49:10 PM »
Please edit links down to their normal format:
My bad, being lazy and quite likely pre-senile as well. But I'll strive for improvement!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 499
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #473 on: January 28, 2020, 10:10:21 PM »
You should still be able to edit the post.  ;)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2685
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1042
  • Likes Given: 1575
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #474 on: February 09, 2020, 06:06:02 PM »
EARTHQUAKE

Quote
M 5.0 - 228km E of Nord Greenland

Time     2020-02-09 13:32:53 (UTC)
Location 81.246°N 4.301°W
Depth    10.0 km
Beware, this user bites.

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2685
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1042
  • Likes Given: 1575
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #475 on: February 19, 2020, 05:22:25 PM »
Another one.

M 4.5 - 210km WSW of Longyearbyen, Svalbard and Jan Mayen

Time
2020-02-19 09:38:24 (UTC)
Location
77.453°N 7.462°E
Depth
10.0 km
Beware, this user bites.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1147
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 82
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #476 on: February 24, 2020, 06:42:42 AM »
Interesting article published by the Scripps institute about methane in permafrost.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-destabilization-unlikely-cause-methane-burp

Quote
“Anthropogenic methane emissions currently are larger than wetland emissions by a factor of about two, and our data show that we don’t need to be as concerned about large methane releases from old carbon reservoirs in response to future warming,” said Petrenko.  “Instead we should be more concerned about the methane that is being released from human activities now.”
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 499
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #477 on: February 25, 2020, 08:01:15 PM »
Researchers find new reason Arctic is warming so fast

The Arctic has experienced the warming effects of global climate change faster than any other region on the planet. Scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory aided by computer simulations and observations that helps explain why this occurs.

A team led by Scripps researcher Emma Beer observed the changes taking place in the Arctic Ocean, which is largely covered by sea ice for most of the year. There, an unusual situation exists where the water is warm at depth and cold near the surface. The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic oceans, whereas the near-surface waters are in contact with sea ice and remain close to the freezing point. Heat flows upward from the warmer water to the colder water.

The scientists found that the deeper water is getting still warmer as a result of climate change, but the near-surface water below the sea ice remains close to the freezing point. The increasing difference in temperature leads to a greater upward flow of heat. Beer, Scripps climate scientist Ian Eisenman, and researcher Till Wagner of the University of North Carolina estimate that this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

"While previous work has found mechanisms related to the surface and the atmosphere that cause Arctic amplification, our finding is that there is also a fundamental reason why the ocean causes polar amplification when the polar region is covered with sea ice," Eisenman said of the National Science Foundation-supported study. The results are published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

https://phys.org/news/2020-02-arctic-fast.html

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3274
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 529
  • Likes Given: 238
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #478 on: February 25, 2020, 08:51:40 PM »
I've 'always' wondered if there was any heat transfer across the halocline and pycnocline.  That research suggests, "Yes!"
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

kassy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1239
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 673
  • Likes Given: 499
Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #479 on: February 26, 2020, 01:29:07 PM »
I always figured there should be some but how much and is it relevant compared to other processes are the more complicated questions.

The article is paywalled so if anyone with access could quote a bit with the numbers/timescales in the article that would be great. TIA.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.