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Chris83

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #950 on: November 20, 2024, 06:17:27 PM »
Interesting study about the Barents Sea

(not sure this is the thread for it)

A seven-degree increase in atmospheric temperature in the northern Barents Sea.
A 3.5-degree increase in sea temperature.

(and this is locked in, whatever the scenario for CO2 emissions)



https://www.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-climate-change/new-study-the-northern-barents-sea-could-be-seven-degrees-warmer-in-2050/2429820

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #951 on: November 20, 2024, 06:53:29 PM »
Interesting study about the Barents Sea

(not sure this is the thread for it)

A seven-degree increase in atmospheric temperature in the northern Barents Sea.
A 3.5-degree increase in sea temperature.

(and this is locked in, whatever the scenario for CO2 emissions)

https://www.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-climate-change/new-study-the-northern-barents-sea-could-be-seven-degrees-warmer-in-2050/2429820
Goodbye winter sea ice in the Barents - full Atlantification.
& this must surely have a knockon effect on the sea ice in the Kara and the Atlantic Front of the Central Arctic and the Greenland Sea?
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El Cid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #952 on: November 20, 2024, 07:03:11 PM »
I always thought that BOE could only occur if/when the Barents and Bering stay ice free all year because then the first 1/2 months won't be "wasted" to melt these out. If we started from an ice free barents and Bering then you would have a fully melting CAB by June/July at peak insolation. That would destroy it.

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #953 on: November 20, 2024, 07:28:04 PM »
Not much ice gets recycled in the Bering area so this alone is enough. Of course they are discussing 2050 and we could already have had a BOE by then. Yes there will be knock on effects on other seas but they are already happening and the ice is much easier to melt as it gets thinner.

So for 2050 their WCS will probably be closer then the reasonable scenario.
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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #954 on: November 24, 2024, 06:54:06 AM »
Thats the graph. It shows that the time to melt 10% at 6C is about 500 years. Multiply by 10 to get 5000 years to melt 100%.

y=x is a straight line
y=1/x is a hyperbola, which is roughly the shape of that graph.

time to melt  = 1/melt rate, so if the time to melt is hyperbolic, the melt rate is linear

OK thanks for clarification. The graph shows the time it takes to melt the FIRST 10%, and you make a serious mistake by multiplying by 10. As clearly stated in the video, and as everybody who knows anything about how glaciers melt, the rate of melt will increase rapidly with time, if only due to drop in altitude.

Thist is also what the whole video is about! As the glacier melts, the equilibrium line moves ever further inland and ever more of the surface of the glacier is subject to stronger melt and less snowfall. It is a strongly non-linear process.

So thanks Richard for clarifying your mistake.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #955 on: November 24, 2024, 01:16:15 PM »
Who knows what will happen in 500 years time? Its pretty silly to be crying wolf  about something that far in the future. I don't think its all that strongly non-linear anyway. If it had been Box would have shown it. The important question is whether it can accelerate in 50 years, not get a little bit faster than now in 1000 years time. Thats what he was talking about on the video. Getting a little bit faster after 1000 years. He didn't show the graph for that because it wouldn't have looked scary. To see a big non-linearity it would have to be even slower. At 0.5 degrees over the tipping point there's a lot more potential for increasing the area than there is at 6 degrees where a lot more area is melting already. But showing something that got really "fast" in 50,000 years time would be even more silly, even though it would be more non-linear.

There might be some other mechanism than surface melt that will kick in, like the slope getting too steep and collapsing. That would be a genuinely scary non-linearity. However, at the moment there are only reckoned to be a few gates where the ice can flow faster due to the underlying terrain and almost all of them are already active, which is where the increase in the past few decades has come from. However that increase in the rate may be over, and nothing Box said on that video suggests he thinks otherwise. He's talking about gentle non-linearities happening over millennia not ones that could push the sea level up by metres over a century.

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #956 on: December 07, 2024, 05:39:34 AM »
An article in New Scientist claims to finally have an explanation for the unusually high temperatures last year and continuing into this year: "We finally have an explanation for 2023’s record-breaking temperatures".

The article is based on a recent article in the journal Science, unfortunately behind a pay-wall, but the abstract reads:

Quote from: "Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo" https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq7280
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Niño onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

Apparently, record-low albedo over the oceans is to blame for the extra warming, and although it is not mentioned in the abstract above, apparently the findings show that the low albedo was mostly in tropical latitude and not over the main shipping lanes, which means that reduction in sulfur pollution by shipping since 2022 can only be partially to blame.

The interesting question then becomes: Why? What caused this drop in albedo and will it continue, or reverse, or maybe get worse? Is it because of some previously unknown natural climatic variability? Or is it some climate-warming-induced feedback mechanism that will only get worse?
« Last Edit: December 07, 2024, 05:46:04 AM by binntho »
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HapHazard

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #957 on: December 07, 2024, 06:12:56 AM »
People talk about the shipping fuel changes a lot here, but "For the global average, the effect of removing marine aerosols may have added about 0.02 °C" Dunno how/if it affects albedo though.

https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/
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El Cid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #958 on: December 07, 2024, 07:57:01 AM »
People talk about the shipping fuel changes a lot here, but "For the global average, the effect of removing marine aerosols may have added about 0.02 °C" Dunno how/if it affects albedo though.

https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/

Yes, and that is exactly what James Hansen thinks is wrong, see any of his newsletters from the past 2-3 years, eg this one:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/MayEmail.2024.05.16.pdf

"We interpret acceleration of warming since 2010 to be a consequence of decreasing aerosols,
with a significant contribution from reduction of ship aerosols
due to the strict 2020 emission
limit imposed by the IMO (International Maritime Organization). Another recent social media
comment is that reduction of ship emissions is negligible compared to emission reductions by
China. That comment misses the point. It is well known that ship emissions are a tiny part of
total anthropogenic emissions and of emission changes, but ships emit into relatively pristine
ocean air and the aerosol effect is nonlinear. The inadvertent experiment provided by the IMO
emission limit is a great opportunity to improve understanding of aerosol and cloud physics.
An important issue concerns how much additional global warming lurks in our Faustian
aerosol bargain. That depends on interpretation of ongoing change. Our preliminary analysis
suggests a ship aerosol forcing an order of magnitude (factor of ~10) greater than what
follows from IPCC estimates
. The 2021 IPCC report (AR6) pegs total aerosol forcing as 1.06
W/m2 in 2019, with 0.22 direct aerosol forcing and 0.84 the indirect effect on clouds. A 2021
update reduces the aerosol forcing to 0.98 W/m2 (0.21 direct, 0.77 indirect). Based on this
small aerosol forcing, Hausfather and Forster obtain a forcing of 0.079 W/m2 for 100%
implementation of 2020 IMO9 ship emission limits. Our estimate of a minimum of 0.5 W/m2
for the aerosol forcing from shipping refers to the present (~80%) reduction of sulfates from
ships. The difference with the Hausfather and Forster value is so large that it must be possible
to resolve this issue within the next few years"


Basically he's been saying for years that negative forcing by aerosols is absolutely underestimated which means that positive forcing by CO2 is underestimated and therefore if/when we start reducing aerosols an acceleration of global warming should happen. He's been talking about if for years and lo and behold acceleration  IS happening lately.

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #959 on: December 07, 2024, 11:38:55 AM »
People talk about the shipping fuel changes a lot here, but "For the global average, the effect of removing marine aerosols may have added about 0.02 °C" Dunno how/if it affects albedo though.

https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/

Yes, and that is exactly what James Hansen thinks is wrong...

Basically he's been saying for years that negative forcing by aerosols is absolutely underestimated which means that positive forcing by CO2 is underestimated and therefore if/when we start reducing aerosols an acceleration of global warming should happen. He's been talking about if for years and lo and behold acceleration  IS happening lately.

I was not aware of what Hansen has been saying, but I would reply "obviously" to the above statement. I remember back in the 90s when the whole global warming issue was gaining traction in the general consciousness, that there was a lot of speculation about the aerosol cooling effect as an explanation for the warming hiatus between c.a. 1940 and 1975. Human-induced aerosol release during WWII would have been significantly above the interwar years, and the following decades saw very rapid increase in fossel fuel consumption and concomitant aerosol pollution.

During my formative years in the 70s the whole world started talking about "acid rain" and how it was destroying the forests of Europe and even North America. I remember how there were no sunny days anymore when vacating during summer, only some sort of white mist hiding the sun and the clouds and the distant mountains. All sunsets were marvellous, but nobody got tanned anymore!

And the world reacted, cleaning up transport fuels and filtering emissions from power stations. The amount of aerosol decreased rapidly, and Europe regained the clear skies of the childhood of our parents.

But then aerosol pollution over the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia increased massively, but I assume (or hope?)  that it has been decreasing again recently. Or perhaps not? In Beijing, in 2001, the situation was even worse than I remembered from my childhood in Europe. Has the situation improved since then?

Anyway, if a fall in human-released aerosols is to blame for the significant extra warming in 2023 and continuing, then where and why and by how much has this form of pollution gone down in recent years? We know about the ship emissions, but that is not enough.
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oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #960 on: December 07, 2024, 12:13:25 PM »
An article in New Scientist claims to finally have an explanation for the unusually high temperatures last year and continuing into this year: "We finally have an explanation for 2023’s record-breaking temperatures".

The article is based on a recent article in the journal Science, unfortunately behind a pay-wall, but the abstract reads:

Quote from: "Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo" https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq7280
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Niño onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

Apparently, record-low albedo over the oceans is to blame for the extra warming, and although it is not mentioned in the abstract above, apparently the findings show that the low albedo was mostly in tropical latitude and not over the main shipping lanes, which means that reduction in sulfur pollution by shipping since 2022 can only be partially to blame.

The interesting question then becomes: Why? What caused this drop in albedo and will it continue, or reverse, or maybe get worse? Is it because of some previously unknown natural climatic variability? Or is it some climate-warming-induced feedback mechanism that will only get worse?
Interesting. And as usual with climate news, disturbing.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #961 on: December 07, 2024, 02:15:23 PM »
Not sure if this has already been posted somewhere, but its a finding that ocean acidification reduces the production of dimethyl sulphide, the main natural source for ocean aerosols. The non-linearity that Hansen refers to might be an even stronger effect as a result of this.

Open access https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00563-y

Changes in global DMS production driven by increased CO2 levels and its impact on radiative forcing

Quote
Our study highlights the importance of understanding the future changes in dimethyl-sulfide (DMS), the largest natural sulfur source, in the context of ocean acidification driven by elevated CO2 levels. We found a strong negative correlation (R2 = 0.89) between the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and sea-surface DMS concentrations based on global observational datasets, not adequately captured by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models (ESMs). Using this relationship, we refined projections of future sea-surface DMS concentrations in CMIP6 ESMs. Our study reveals a decrease in global sea-surface DMS concentrations and the associated aerosol radiative forcing compared to ESMs’ results. These reductions represent ~9.5% and 11.1% of the radiative forcings resulting from aerosol radiation and cloud interactions in 2100 reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Thus, future climate projections should account for the climate implications of changes in DMS production due to ocean acidification.

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #962 on: December 07, 2024, 06:25:25 PM »
The interesting question then becomes: Why? What caused this drop in albedo and will it continue, or reverse, or maybe get worse? Is it because of some previously unknown natural climatic variability? Or is it some climate-warming-induced feedback mechanism that will only get worse?

It comes from physics. Warmer air holds more moisture. At the simplest level this changes the saturation point. In a really overly simplistic way you could say that in a warmer world the lowest clouds would be higher. Of course it is more complicated in the real world but clouds change and we know this from both physics and paleo.

And it will get worse as temperatures go up while it increases local temperatures too. It is one of the many ways to accelerate global warming.
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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #963 on: December 07, 2024, 07:11:03 PM »
Thanks Richard for the DMS paper. Due to less ice there has been an increase in DMS in the Arctic so the projected changes in the Southern Hemisphere are a bit of a surprise. I think anytime we begin to consider biological ramifications of ocean acidification we are in a very complex place. A warming ocean sometimes counteracts the effects of acidification.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969724006570
So population shifts either towards picophytoplankton or towards diatoms or green algae all affect DMS production .
The troubling thing to me is acidification becomes a much worse an issue when we approach surface water undersaturation projected ~2100 and even though human fossil fuel reductions will limit anthro sulfur terrestrial and ocean sources by then the long term biological effects of anthro CO2 will live on centuries into the future.

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #964 on: December 08, 2024, 07:34:37 AM »
The interesting question then becomes: Why? What caused this drop in albedo and will it continue, or reverse, or maybe get worse? Is it because of some previously unknown natural climatic variability? Or is it some climate-warming-induced feedback mechanism that will only get worse?

It comes from physics. Warmer air holds more moisture.

I think there is some misunderstanding here. This has nothing to do with moisture but with aerosol pollution. A recent increase in albedo is apparently caused by a decrease in the amount of low-lying cloud over tropical oceans. The reason for this drop is unclear, but if you were to read the posts above you would see that some people suspect that a reduction in global aerosol pollution could be to blame. Which is why I asked: Has there been a fall in global aereosol pollution recently?

Partial answer is yes, there has been a decrease in SOx pollution by maritime shipping due to new global standards for ship fuels. But this drop is apparently not sufficient to explain the measured increase in albedo.

Focusing on SOx only there is plenty of data upto 2022 but it is clear that pollution has been going down steadily since the mid 70s. The biggest difference is in Europe, but even Asia has seen a reduction from a peak of 66 million tons in 2005 to 45 in 2022. (Our World in Data)

Following the changes in regulation in 2020, pollution from shipping fell from 10 to 3 million tons between 2019 and 2022. This change does not seem to register in the graph below, and nor does SOx pollution seem to have been effected by COVID pandemic. The main trend is clearly down over the last 50 years, with SOx pollution being now only half of what it was at peak.

I am not aware of any global events that could cause a significant drop in SOx pollution in 2023 and 2024 which leads me to conclude that the excess warming in 2023 and 2024 is not likely to be caused by major changes in SOx pollution.

But other sources of aerosol pollution exist, and a big one is dust from Sahara being blown out over the Atlantic. I read somewhere that 2023 saw a big reduction in dust from Sahara, and I know that the recent summer had unusually wet weather in western Sahara, which would have cut down on dust pollution as well. That could be the start of a very ominous feedback cycle!

Aerosol Optical Depth image from Nasa Earth Observatory.


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El Cid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #965 on: December 08, 2024, 08:32:39 AM »
Once again, I can refer to Hansen. I won't quote each of his newsletters but you can look it up.

Basically, he says that SOx emission effects are quite localized and therefore you cannot just look at global emissions, you need to see  the geograhical distribution of emissions. And since oceans constitute 2/3 of the area of the world, reducing suplhur there has an oversized effect. Also, most shipping routes are in the north midlatitudes where you had a huge jump in SSTs this decade, making his claim more believable: 

psymmo7

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #966 on: December 08, 2024, 07:08:42 PM »
I think the numbers for this part of the earth's oceans back up the last point

Bardian

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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #968 on: December 10, 2024, 08:34:39 PM »
Sink to Source: Arctic Tundra Now Emits Planet-Warming Pollution, Federal Report Finds
https://www.npr.org/2024/12/10/nx-s1-5215967/arctic-tundra-contributes-climate-warming-pollution-report-finds



Arctic tundra, which has stored carbon for thousands of years, has now become a source of planet-warming pollution. As wildfires increase and hotter temperatures melt long-frozen ground, the region is releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

The finding was reported in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's annual Arctic Report Card, released Tuesday. The new research, led by scientists from the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts, signals a dramatic shift in this Arctic ecosystem, which could have widespread implications for the global climate.

https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/

https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2024/

"The tundra, which is experiencing warming and increased wildfire, is now emitting more carbon that it stores, which will worsen climate change impacts," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a press release. "This is yet one more sign, predicted by scientists, of the consequences of inadequately reducing fossil fuel pollution."

"It means that that CO2 will keep going up," Commane said. "We won't be able to do much about it."

This year's report comes as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in January. Trump has said he wants to increase oil exploration and drilling in the Arctic and curtail government action on climate change.

« Last Edit: December 10, 2024, 08:56:47 PM by vox_mundi »
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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #969 on: December 11, 2024, 09:37:09 AM »
The 2024 edition of the Arctic Report Card has been published by NOAA. A brief overview is available in this video:

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FrostKing70

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #970 on: December 14, 2024, 07:30:14 PM »
Interested in the groups thoughts on the Real Ice start up.  It appears they have added ice thickness in their initial tests.

www.realice.eco/mission

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/climate/refreeze-arctic-real-ice/index.html

Glen Koehler

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #971 on: December 14, 2024, 09:55:38 PM »
Cold Season Cloud Response to Sea Ice Loss in the Arctic
Yinghui Liu AND Jeffrey R. Key

ABSTRACT:
     Based on satellite observations, we investigate the cloud responses during the cold season, from October to the following March, to interannual fluctuations in Arctic sea ice concentrations during September and October. It is found that the cloud responses differ between the periods 2000–18 and 1982–99. From 2000 to 2018, increased Arctic Ocean cloud cover in October and November transitioned to significantly less cloud cover and cloud radiative forcing (CRF), from
January to March, in response to lower sea ice concentrations in September and October. The lower CRF from January to March preconditions the sea ice and likely contributes to higher sea ice concentrations the following September. This suggests a negative cloud feedback on sea ice concentration, which may contribute to sea ice recovery after a dramatic decrease.

     In contrast, from 1982 to 1999, generally increased cloud cover and cloud radiative forcing persisted from October to March following lower sea ice concentrations in the preceeding September and October. The cause of the different cloud responses to sea ice changes in these two time periods remains unclear and requires further investigation.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/38/1/JCLI-D-23-0394.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
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kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #972 on: December 15, 2024, 06:38:09 PM »
Buried landforms reveal North Sea's ancient glacial past

An international team of researchers, including a glaciologist at Newcastle University, UK, has discovered remarkably well-preserved glacial landforms buried almost 1 km beneath the North Sea.

The team used sound wave, known as seismic, data to reveal Ice Age landforms buried beneath almost 1 km of mud in the North Sea. The results, reported in the journal Science Advances, suggest that the landforms were produced about 1 million years ago, when an ice sheet centred over Norway extended towards the British Isles.

This is important because the timing of this ice advance corresponds to a period of global cooling called the Mid-Pleistocene Transition.

Glacial landforms reveal how past ice sheets responded to changes in climate, which can help to make better predictions about how today's ice sheets will respond to climate warming. A challenge is that glacial landforms are often buried beneath thick layers of sediment, preventing their identification.

Dr Christine Batchelor, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, Newcastle University, played a key role in the research by helping to map and interpret the landforms. "To fully understand the linkages between ice sheets and climate, we need to study how past ice sheets responded to long-term changes in climate," said Dr Batchelor. "Using modern seismic data, our results suggests that ice sheets in northwest Europe expanded significantly in response to climate cooling about 1 million years ago."

Dr Dag Ottesen from the Geological Survey of Norway, the paper's lead author, said: "This study was made possible by the availability of 3D seismic data from the North Sea, which allowed us to examine the buried landforms in striking detail."

3D seismic technology was developed to assess sediment suitability to host oil and gas or renewable infrastructures. However, this same data can be used to study buried landforms produced by glacial processes.

The mapped landscape includes streamlined features that were carved beneath the former ice sheet and ridges that record the imprint of the ice sheet as it started to retreat. Despite their ancient age, the landforms have striking resemblance to similar features produced by ice sheets much more recently.

The buried landforms provide new knowledge about the mechanisms by which ice sheets retreat. In order for such subdued landforms to remain unmodified, the former ice sheet must have retreated rapidly by lift-off and floatation of its frontal margin.

In addition to glacial landforms, the researchers also found elongated furrows incised into the former seabed, which they interpreted to have been produced by strong ocean currents. These landforms are even more deeply buried than the glacial landforms, showing that they were produced prior to the advance of the ice sheet.

"With our high-resolution data, we can see that the shape and size of the furrows is consistent with an origin as ocean current furrows," said Dr Ottesen. "This differs from previous interpretations of these features as glacial landforms, re-writing our understanding of North Sea glacial history."

By providing a new level of detail about the buried landforms, the findings shed light into the evolution of the North Sea in our recent geological past. The study shows that the North Sea was characterised by strong ocean currents prior to about 1 million years ago, after which it became more directly influenced by ice sheets.

The research team acknowledge that a limitation of the study is a lack of data about the precise age of the landforms.

"A wealth of seismic data are now available for the North Sea," said Dr Batchelor. "The next step is to acquire long sediment cores that can allow researchers to better understand the timing of glacial events."

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/12/241213140614.htm

The paper:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq6089
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johnm33

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #973 on: December 24, 2024, 09:22:20 PM »
Something to consider, if the current building between Bering and Fram is powerful enough then the ice will rotate acw/ccw that will force ice out into Barents which may build up to slow Atl. Ingress.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #974 on: January 06, 2025, 05:28:54 PM »
Aerial Survey Data Analysis Reveals Major Changes In Arctic Pressure Ridges
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-aerial-survey-analysis-reveals-major.html



In the Arctic, the old, multi-year ice is increasingly melting, dramatically reducing the frequency and size of pressure ridges.

In a study appearing in the journal Nature Climate Change, experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute report on this trend and analyze observational data from three decades of aerial surveys.

Satellite data from the last three decades documents the dramatic changes in Arctic sea ice due to climate change: the area covered in ice in summer is declining steadily, the floes are becoming thinner and moving faster.

Until recently, it was unclear how the characteristic pressure ridges had been affected, since it's only been possible to reliably monitor them from space for the past few years.

Pressure ridges are produced by lateral pressures on sea ice. Wind or ocean currents can stack floes up, forming meter-thick ridges. The part of the ridges which break up the otherwise smooth surface of the ice every few hundred meters extending above the water is called the sail and measures between one and two meters.

Even more impressive is the keel below the water line, which can extend down to 30 meters and create an impassable obstacle for shipping.

Pressure ridges affect not only the energy and mass balance of the sea ice, but also the biogeochemical cycle and the ecosystem: when their sails catch the wind, floes can be driven all across the Arctic.



... A team of researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), has now reprocessed and analyzed laser-based readings gathered in 30 years of research flights over the Arctic ice.

The survey flights, which cover a total distance of roughly 76,000 kilometers, show for the first time that the frequency of pressure ridges north of Greenland and in Fram Strait is decreasing by 12.2%, and their height by 5%, per decade. Data from the Lincoln Sea, an area where particularly old ice is known to accumulate, paints a similar picture: here, the frequency is declining by 14.9% and the height by 10.4% per decade.

"Ice that has survived several summers is characterized by a particularly high number of pressure ridges, since it has been subjected to high pressures over a longer timeframe. The loss of this multi-year ice is so severe that we're observing an overall decline in pressure-ridge frequency, even though the thin young ice is easier to deform."

... Another riddle: although the size and frequency of ridge sails have decreased, the drift speed of Arctic ice has generally increased.

As AWI sea-ice physicist Dr. Luisa von Albedyll, who contributed to the study, explains, "Actually, the ice should drift more slowly when the sails shrink, since there's less area for the transfer of momentum. This indicates that there are other changes producing just the opposite effect. Stronger ocean currents or a smoother ice underside due to more intensive melting could be contributing factors.

Smoother ice with fewer pressure ridges in a more dynamic Arctic, Nature Climate Change (2025)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02199-5

Fig. 3: Sea ice morphology versus age
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #975 on: January 06, 2025, 07:43:19 PM »
AI Model Predicts Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Up to a Year In Advance
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-ai-arctic-sea-ice-year.html



An innovative artificial intelligence (AI) model, capable of predicting changes in Arctic sea ice up to a year in advance, has been developed. This model is expected to provide invaluable mid- to long-term forecasting information, thereby assisting in the development of Arctic sea routes and the exploration of marine resources.

Professor Jungho Im from the Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering at UNIST has created an AI model that predicts Arctic sea ice concentration for up to one year with an impressive accuracy of less than 6% error. Sea ice concentration refers to the proportion of a specific area that is covered by ice.

The research team employed the UNET deep learning algorithm to develop this model, which effectively learns the complex relationships between historical changes in Arctic sea ice concentration and key climatic factors, including air temperature, water temperature, solar radiation, and wind.

UNET is a sophisticated deep learning framework that enables AI to analyze and understand relationships within image data, such as satellite imagery.

Their findings are published in Remote Sensing of Environment.

The model demonstrated high accuracy in mid- to long-term forecasting. Through a rigorous evaluation comparing the AI model's predictions against actual historical sea ice concentration values, the research team recorded an average prediction error of less than 6% for forecasts made at three, six, and 12 months. In contrast, existing models showed increasing error rates as the forecast period extended.



Moreover, the AI model exhibited stable predictive performance, even during periods of rapid sea ice decline. During significant melt seasons, such as the summers of 2007 and 2012, the new model maintained an average prediction error of 7.07%, substantially reducing the average prediction error by more than half compared to existing models, which averaged 17.35%.

The research team also identified critical climatic factors influencing mid- to long-term sea ice concentration predictions. Analysis of the UNET model's outcomes revealed that solar radiation and wind are especially influential in areas where ice is thin.

Professor Im stated, "This study addresses the limitations of traditional physics-based models by exploring the complex interplay of various environmental factors that impact changes in Arctic sea ice."

Young Jun Kim et al, Long-term prediction of Arctic sea ice concentrations using deep learning: Effects of surface temperature, radiation, and wind conditions, Remote Sensing of Environment (2024)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425724005947







There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

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SteveMDFP

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #976 on: January 06, 2025, 07:58:14 PM »
AI Model Predicts Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Up to a Year In Advance
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-ai-arctic-sea-ice-year.html

An innovative artificial intelligence (AI) model, capable of predicting changes in Arctic sea ice up to a year in advance, has been developed. This model is expected to provide invaluable mid- to long-term forecasting information, thereby assisting in the development of Arctic sea routes and the exploration of marine resources.

Professor Jungho Im from the Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering at UNIST has created an AI model that predicts Arctic sea ice concentration for up to one year with an impressive accuracy of less than 6% error. Sea ice concentration refers to the proportion of a specific area that is covered by ice.
...
Their findings are published in Remote Sensing of Environment.

The model demonstrated high accuracy in mid- to long-term forecasting. Through a rigorous evaluation comparing the AI model's predictions against actual historical sea ice concentration values, the research team recorded an average prediction error of less than 6% for forecasts made at three, six, and 12 months. In contrast, existing models showed increasing error rates as the forecast period extended.

Moreover, the AI model exhibited stable predictive performance, even during periods of rapid sea ice decline. During significant melt seasons, such as the summers of 2007 and 2012, the new model maintained an average prediction error of 7.07%, substantially reducing the average prediction error by more than half compared to existing models, which averaged 17.35%.
...
Analysis of the UNET model's outcomes revealed that solar radiation and wind are especially influential in areas where ice is thin.
...
Young Jun Kim et al, Long-term prediction of Arctic sea ice concentrations using deep learning: Effects of surface temperature, radiation, and wind conditions, Remote Sensing of Environment (2024)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425724005947

Well, I guess all the humans who try to predict sea ice are now out of a job.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #977 on: January 06, 2025, 11:21:59 PM »
It doesn't have any skin in the game. Hell, it doesn't even have any skin

I think it scraped all it's data from the ASIF forum  ???
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binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #978 on: January 07, 2025, 03:38:33 AM »
AI Model Predicts Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Up to a Year In Advance
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-ai-arctic-sea-ice-year.html
...
UNET is a sophisticated deep learning framework that enables AI to analyze and understand relationships within image data, such as satellite imagery.

A large digital neural network + some very clever man-made algorithms using satellite and other image data. Which implies that the model has been fed endless amounts of images (satellite pictures, weather forecasts etc.) and left alone to regeneratively learn how to produce similar images with surprisingly high accuracy. But no knowledge of actual physics or physical systems involved, which implies that the predictive accuracy was already present within the images themselves and cannot be improved upon.
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Glen Koehler

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #979 on: January 07, 2025, 04:00:00 PM »
RE "the predictive accuracy was already present within the images themselves and cannot be improved upon."
     I don't understand what you mean by that.  If the AI reveals patterns within the correlations of images to weather and other inputs that provide predictive power, then using those patterns to look forward provides new predictive skill.  That is improvement.

     That said, I had an incident yesterday that showed me (once again) the limitations of the current AI generation.  I used an AI to search how to accomplish something that should be rather simple in Excel, but for which I had been using a brute force alternative for many years.  AI gave me the simple answer!  Thanks AI! 

      Until I tried to invoke the instructions (over and over, with repeat interactions and rewordings of the query).  Nothing worked.  After 20 minutes of this nonsense, the AI finally came back with the sage advice that Excel does not have the capability to do what I was trying to do.  This despite the previous replies with detailed instructions (false) telling me how to do it in Excel.

      Turns out the AI was conflating the tools within another spreadsheet software with Excel.  So I agree with you that the current AI (at least the one I was using) just regurgitates the input it was provided with no underlying understanding.  But in the case of the ASI concentration model, it seems to have generated a useful tool (seems to at least, I have not read the paper!)
« Last Edit: January 08, 2025, 02:19:13 AM by Glen Koehler »
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #980 on: January 07, 2025, 04:22:33 PM »
I think its regression to the mean, but with the climatology and regression rate better calibrated than in the models they are comparing themselves against. Since the general standard of calibration in sea ice modelling has been extremely poor, I'm not  surprised that its possible to do better. Forum members guesses used to beat the professional models hollow in the calibration contests I ran.

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #981 on: January 08, 2025, 06:13:36 AM »
RE "the predictive accuracy was already present within the images themselves and cannot be improved upon."
     I don't understand what you mean by that.  If the AI reveals patterns within the correlations of images to weather and other inputs that provide predictive power, then using those patterns to look forward provides new predictive skill.  That is improvement.

The large digital neural networks (DNN) are extremely good at finding patterns. Coupled with the generative learning model, they can be trained to recreate these patterns. When used in Large Language Models (LLM), they can quite convincingly make you think that there is some actual intelligence behind it. But beware, this is but a scam.

The use of the term "AI" is very misleading, since most lay people seem to thinnk that it involves some kind of thinking and speaking (or at least writing) super intelligence. This is very far from reality. The Large Language Models are simulacra that produce often quite convincing text but are without any understanding or comprehension. There is no more actual intelligence than that found in a calculator and less than in a nematode.

But there is no doubt that the DNNs are extremely powerful tools when it comes to pattern recognition and replication. And in this case, the DNN has been used to tease out correlations in images that were there all the time but were hidden without the corret tools. Finding these correleations is a step forward, definitely, but once the correlations have been found, no further improvement is possible.
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oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #982 on: January 08, 2025, 07:48:21 AM »
Personally I am highly doubtful of the ability to predict ice concentration a year in advance, AI or not. I wonder if predictions will be made public for 2025, if so it will be interesting to watch and compare. If not, what's the use of the tool?
Edit: 2016 was 2nd lowest for sea ice concentration, and yet it is not mentioned in the article at all.
And there are too few years in the database, the AI can be made to fit them all and yet lack predictive power for future years.
I reserve my strong doubts.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2025, 10:08:45 AM by oren »

El Cid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #983 on: January 08, 2025, 09:38:38 AM »

The large digital neural networks (DNN) are extremely good at finding patterns. Coupled with the generative learning model, they can be trained to recreate these patterns.

.........

But there is no doubt that the DNNs are extremely powerful tools when it comes to pattern recognition and replication. And in this case, the DNN has been used to tease out correlations in images that were there all the time but were hidden without the corret tools. Finding these correleations is a step forward, definitely, but once the correlations have been found, no further improvement is possible.

And therein lies their weakness. As long as the system is in the same state (there is no regime change) they perform very well. That's why they are increasingly useful and even better than standard physics based models in weather forecasting. However, as soon as there is a regime shift they will be clueless. That is not a problem in weather forecasting but we have reason to believe that eventually Arctic Ice will shift into a new regime (noone knows when though). As long as the ice is in the current (let's call it slow transition) regime, I believe that AI outperforms everyone. It will work until it won't.

Chris83

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #984 on: January 08, 2025, 06:45:37 PM »
  I saw this chart today about the subpolar North Atlantic

  Seems "something" is happening in/near the Arctic

  The area is AMOC-related, as explained in the link below.
   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314002437#:~:text=The%20subpolar%20North%20Atlantic%20is,Meridional%20Overturning%20Circulation%20(AMOC).

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #985 on: January 15, 2025, 02:45:08 PM »
Research Finds Frozen Ground In the Arctic Is Sinking at an Increased Rate
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-frozen-ground-arctic.html



A new study from the George Washington University shows that frozen ground is sinking at an alarming rate across high-latitude and high-altitude cold regions of the Arctic.

The study, based on diverse data from regions across North America and Eurasia, found that thaw subsidence—the sinking or settling of frozen ground, also known as permafrost, as it thaws—is widespread and happening at accelerating rates, with serious implications, including ecosystem, infrastructure and landscape disruptions.

In addition, wildfires and human activities such as construction accelerate this process, the study found. The study authors indicate that more widespread, systemic monitoring of thaw subsidence is urgently needed.

Dmitry A Streletskiy et al, Thawing permafrost is subsiding in the Northern Hemisphere—review and perspectives, Environmental Research Letters (2024).
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ada2ff
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #986 on: January 19, 2025, 07:14:17 AM »


A rare and potentially-historic outbreak of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) is underway inside the Arctic Circle.

 Normally, Earth's stratosphere has no clouds at all. Only when the temperature drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C can widely-spaced water molecules assemble into icy polar stratospheric clouds. With colors that rival auroras, PSCs are considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth.

Right now, NASA climate models are saying that the temperature of the polar stratosphere is at its lowest point since 1978. This super-cold air is directly responsible for the formation of PSCs.

There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

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Phil.

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #987 on: January 21, 2025, 02:52:56 PM »
The formation of PSCs should lead to a reduction in O3.

Niall Dollard

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #988 on: January 29, 2025, 12:27:59 PM »
Mods should really be taking these past few posts and putting them into the amoc slowdown ? thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1755.msg419330.html#msg419330

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #989 on: January 29, 2025, 04:53:24 PM »
Mods should really be taking these past few posts and putting them into the amoc slowdown ? thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1755.msg419330.html#msg419330

It´s a better fit because disagreeing about AMOC is definitely not new in the Arctic or around that area.  ;)
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oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #990 on: January 30, 2025, 06:11:23 AM »
Thanks for the heads up, I should have noticed the issue a while ago. I cannot merge into another section. I split 21 posts and moved the new thread https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4349.0.html to AGW in General - Science.
Kassy please merge it there with the AMOC Slowdown thread.

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #991 on: January 30, 2025, 11:40:11 PM »
It has been merged so the discussion is here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1755.0.html
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