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Author Topic: What's new in the Arctic ?  (Read 171980 times)

nanning

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #400 on: August 26, 2019, 07:42:25 AM »
@oren
You mean something's going to happen to Santa? That IS serious  ::)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #401 on: August 26, 2019, 11:38:56 AM »
Santa Claus maintains the sign.  (duh!)  ::)

Here's the evidence:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #402 on: August 29, 2019, 02:36:15 AM »
Russia Discovers 5 Arctic Islands as Glaciers Melt
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/28/russia-discovers-five-islands-climate-change-melts-arctic-ice/amp/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/28/russia-discovers-5-arctic-islands-as-glaciers-melt-a67051

The Russian military has officially confirmed the discovery of five new Arctic islands which have emerged as climate change accelerates glacial melting.

Ranging in size from 900 to 54,500 square metres, the five tiny islands are located in the cove of Vize off the northeastern shore of Novaya Zemlya, which divides the Barents and Kara seas in the Arctic ocean, a defence ministry statement said.

The islands were previously concealed under the Nansen glacier, also known as the Vylka, which is part of Europe's largest ice cap covering much of Novaya Zemlya's northern island.

The retreat of Arctic ice amid rising air and ocean temperatures has been unveiling unknown landforms. In 2015-18, the hydrographic service observed more than 30 islands, capes and bays near Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land for the first time through satellite monitoring. More are expected to be found.

A US study last year concluded that the ice loss by glaciers on Franz Josef Land had doubled between 2011 and 2015.
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kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #403 on: September 17, 2019, 01:04:49 PM »
Turning the Arctic brown

Despite this, from a scientific point of view, much of the Arctic is unexplored and unknown. One thing we know for certain is that for approximately 35 years it has seen increasing growth of vegetation — a process known as ‘Arctic greening’. However, now it looks as though some of it might actually be turning brown.

When satellites in space detect plants on Earth they measure the ‘greenness index’, in other words, how green the ground cover of plants is. How lush the foliage on the ground appears from space can represent a number of aspects down on earth, from plant growth to leaf area. But if areas of the Arctic are browning, it may indicate something else as well: plant death.

The plant death can be a result of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent in the Arctic as the climate warms. A sudden period of warmth in the middle of winter tricks the plants into thinking it’s spring, so they burst bud early and lose their cold hardiness, leaving them unprepared for a return to normal cold winter temperatures. The plant die-back that follows the events of this ‘extreme winter warming’ also appear to be significantly reducing the ability of Arctic ecosystems to help combat climate change.

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/arctic-browning-1.864694
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #404 on: September 17, 2019, 01:46:05 PM »
Strange that would be a new thing. You can always have a warm snap.
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kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #405 on: September 23, 2019, 02:16:25 PM »
Modeling of physical mechanisms for ice mass loss from marine and marine-terminating glaciers is a complex matter; which consensus climate model not yet adequately address, as illustrated by the linked reference which studied observations of marine-terminating glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago to find that atmospheric forcing has dominated the observed image mass loss.  To me the difficulties in modeling marine and marine-terminating glacial ice mass loss represents a significant risk to society with continued global warming.

Alison J. Cook et al. (13 Mar 2019), "Atmospheric forcing of rapid marine-terminating glacier retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago", Science Advances, Vol. 5, no. 3, eaau8507, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau8507

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/3/eaau8507.full

Abstract: "The Canadian Arctic Archipelago contains >300 glaciers that terminate in the ocean, but little is known about changes in their frontal positions in response to recent changes in the ocean-climate system. Here, we examine changes in glacier frontal positions since the 1950s and investigate the relative influence of oceanic temperature versus atmospheric temperature. Over 94% of glaciers retreated between 1958 and 2015, with a region-wide trend of gradual retreat before ~2000, followed by a fivefold increase in retreat rates up to 2015. Retreat patterns show no correlation with changes in subsurface ocean temperatures, in clear contrast to the dominance of ocean forcing in western Greenland and elsewhere. Rather, significant correlations with surface melt indicate that increased atmospheric temperature has been the primary driver of the acceleration in marine-terminating glacier frontal retreat in this region."

Extract: "It is now widely acknowledged that ocean temperature increase has been the dominant driver of glacier retreat in other polar regions in recent years, particularly along the western Antarctic Peninsula, around the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and in western Greenland. In contrast, we show that, in the CAA, the substantial rise in atmospheric temperature in the 21st century has outweighed any regional impact of changing ocean temperature on marine-terminating glacier frontal behavior. It follows that ocean temperature cannot be assumed to be the primary driver of marine-terminating glacier retreat in all polar regions and that studies of local processes are needed to understand the impacts of climate change on glacier behavior."

Bolding mine. I think this is possibly an interesting detail about the region.
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #406 on: September 24, 2019, 12:26:51 AM »
Walrus - 1; Russian Navy - nil

Walrus Attacks Russian Navy, Sinking Inflatable Boat
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/walruses-attack-russian-navy-sinking-inflatable-boat/

Last week, a Russian Navy rescue tug—the Altai from the Northern Fleet—dispatched a rigid inflatable boat to Wilczek Island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago, which is an Arctic island chain occupied only by wildlife and Russian military personnel. Aboard the boat were sailors and scientists from the Russian Geographic Society, and as they attempted a landing at Cape Geller, their boat was attacked and sunk by a female walrus, "[which] she probably did fearing for her cubs," an RGO news release noted.

While the boat sank, the crew leader managed to get the boat close enough to land for everyone to get ashore safely, according to the RGO's spokesperson.

No walruses were harmed, according to the Northern Fleet

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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #407 on: September 24, 2019, 09:57:38 PM »
Scientists set sail on yearlong expedition to Arctic centre
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/arctic-centre-scientist-expedition-german-icebreaker-rv-polarstern-1.5293837
Quote
Researchers from more than a dozen nations launched Friday the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the central Arctic — a yearlong journey through the ice they hope will improve the scientific models that underpin our understanding of climate change.

The 140-million euro ($158 million Cdn) expedition will see scientists from 19 countries including Germany, the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China work together in one of the most inhospitable regions of the planet.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #408 on: September 24, 2019, 11:25:23 PM »
Scientists set sail on yearlong expedition to Arctic centre


MOSAiC.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.0.html

There is already a stickied thread open on this, above.

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #409 on: September 26, 2019, 02:07:20 PM »
An interesting proposal to safe ice?

Quote
Tiny glass beads might seem an unlikely hero in the fight against climate change, but they may end up playing an outsize role in tackling one of the natural world’s most dire predicaments. A group of researchers have found that millions of these spheres spread in a layer across swaths of Arctic ice reflects sunlight and helps keep the ice frozen.

...

Field calls her idea “an embarrassingly simple concept.” Warmer temperatures have reduced the bright white multiyear ice (essentially thicker, stiffer ice) in the Arctic, and the resulting loss in light reflectivity leads to heating and further ice melt. “I just asked myself a very simple question: Is there a safe material that could help replace that lost reflectivity?” Field says. The answer, her team found, was to add a very thin layer of hollow glass spheres made of silica, the main component of most rocks, that reflect light and “make very thin ice look a lot more like multi-year ice.”

...

Last year, the team covered almost 18,000 square yards on lake ice in Utqiagvik (previously Barrow), Alaska, for pilot tests. While they work on permitting with the Environmental Protection Agency for testing on sea ice, they are collaborating with NASA on modeling.

The results so far are encouraging. In May 2018, the team published a peer-reviewed paper in the American Geophysical Union’s Earth’s Future journal, revealing the results and projections of their initial pilot testing. In one field test, the material increased reflectivity by 15 to 20 percent. Their models have predicted the beads could significantly stop ice decline and even reverse it. Simulations showed a potential 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature reduction over a large part of the Arctic, a 3-degree sea temperature reduction in some areas, and an increase in sea ice thickness of up to 20 inches.
and more on:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/09/arctic-ice-is-melting-faster-than-expected-these-scientists-have-a-radical-idea-to-save-it/
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nanning

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #410 on: September 26, 2019, 06:03:53 PM »
^^
I'm sure they have the best of intentions but, it is a form a geo-engineering, a techno-fix. With likely unintended and bad consequences. When will 'we' (civilisation) ever learn?  :(

'We' have to stop to try and control nature. It's been disastrous.
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blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #411 on: September 26, 2019, 06:32:56 PM »
How much CO2 is emitted making that glass?

binntho

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blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #413 on: October 03, 2019, 05:37:16 AM »

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #414 on: October 07, 2019, 04:56:10 PM »
Scotland proposing to be Europe´s gateway to the Arctic

Quote
The Scottish government published its first Arctic Policy Framework on 23 September 2019. On that occasion Scotland´s External Affairs Secretary said, “Scotland has the expertise and vision to serve as a link between the Arctic region and the wider world with opportunities to help tackle issues such as sustainable tourism, renewable energy and climate change.”

The news Arctic Connections on the Scottish Government webpage claim that 27.5% of Scotland´s overseas exports in the year 2017 is related to trading with countries that have territories in the Arctic and that these major trading partners are also the origin of nearly half of all foreign direct investments in Scotland. It continues with stating that “The framework sets ambitions for Scotland across the Arctic while encouraging academia, civic society and government organisations to have a greater level of collaboration with international counterparts.”


Link >> https://arcticportal.org/ap-library/news/2209-scotland-proposing-to-be-europe-s-gateway-to-the-arctic

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #415 on: October 08, 2019, 04:13:54 PM »
Here's a nice Arte doku about the Arktis. Sorry, only in German and French available. :(


Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #416 on: October 08, 2019, 10:35:03 PM »
Sorry, only in German and French available. :(

No sorryness. Both languages fit well to me   ;)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

charles_oil

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #417 on: October 09, 2019, 12:10:09 AM »
Any chance you could put the French language link as well ?

Sigmetnow

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #418 on: November 05, 2019, 03:21:24 AM »
Zack Labe on Twitter: "Yikes ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/zlabe/status/1191404874526687233
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #419 on: November 08, 2019, 03:51:55 AM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
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kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #420 on: November 08, 2019, 01:54:27 PM »
Climate change: Sea ice loss linked to spread of deadly virus

The decline in sea ice seen in the Arctic in recent decades has been linked by scientists to the spread of a deadly virus in marine mammals.

Researchers found that Phocine distemper virus (PDV) had spread from animals in the North Atlantic to populations in the North Pacific.

The scientists say the spread of pathogens could become more common as ice declines further.

The 15-year study tracked seals, sea lions and otters via satellite.

for details see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50333627
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #421 on: November 12, 2019, 04:29:03 PM »
Satellite Data Shows Loss of Snow Cover, Not Soot to Blame for Rapid Temperature Rise in Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-satellite-loss-soot-blame-rapid.html

A team of researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the University of Washington and the University of Wisconsin-Madison has found evidence that shows the rapid rise of temperatures in the Arctic is caused by the loss of snow and ice cover, and not soot. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes studying satellite data for the region over a 32-year period, and what it showed them about surface temperatures

The researchers report that they found a 1.25-to-1.51 percent per decade absolute reduction in mean surface albedo for the Arctic during the spring and summer seasons. They also found that the reduction in snow and ice cover for sea ice, snow cover over the sea and snow covering the ground contributed equally to the reductions in albedo. They conclude by suggesting that surface temperature warming combined with a reduction in snowfall have been the primary reasons for the rapid increase in temperatures in the Arctic.

This finding is in direct contrast to prior studies blaming soot for the decrease in albedo. To back up their claim, the researchers note that soot covering snow in the Arctic has been declining over the past three decades, yet the rise in surface temperatures has continued unabated.



Albedo trend. Area- and energy-weighted average of multimonth (March to September of each year) mean (A) surface albedo over the entire Arctic and (B) planetary albedo over the Arctic oceanic area (north of 60°N).

Rudong Zhang et al. Unraveling driving forces explaining significant reduction in satellite-inferred Arctic surface albedo since the 1980s, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019).
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #422 on: November 15, 2019, 12:16:57 AM »
Couldn't figure out where to put this so ...

Sea Ice Movements Trace Dynamics Transforming the New Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-floe-sea-ice-movements-dynamics.html

Research led by the University of California, Riverside, is the first to use moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, or MODIS, satellite imagery to understand long-term ocean movements from sea ice dynamics. (... I think A-Team might beg to differ)

... "No one had bothered before to use MODIS because the satellite is sensitive to clouds and it's hard to identify ice," Martinez said. "Our algorithm automatically filters clouds and uses other image processing algorithms that give the velocity and trajectory of the ice floes."

"MODIS data is one of the longest records of earth ever compiled," said first author Rosalinda Lopez, a graduate student in Martinez's lab. "This means that we are able to expand our analysis to almost two decades to observe the variability of sea ice as dramatic changes transform the region."



R.Lopez-Acosta, et.al. Ice Floe Tracker: An algorithm to automatically retrieve Lagrangian trajectories via feature matching from moderate-resolution visual imagery, Remote Sensing of Environment (2019)

Abstract:

Satellite observations of sea ice along marginal ice zones suggest a strong coupling between sea ice transport and the underlying ocean turbulent eddy field. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery spanning over almost two decades of daily observations at a resolution of up to 250  m provides a good resource for deriving long-term ocean kinematics from sea ice dynamics.

In this paper, we present a newly developed automatic algorithm to retrieve dynamic measurements of sea ice from these images. We describe the methodology by presenting results acquired along the East Greenland Current (ECG) for 6.5  weeks in the spring of 2017. During this period, our ice floe tracker was used to identify and track ice floes with length scales ranging from 8 to 65  km. By effectively filtering atmospheric conditions from MODIS images, ice floes were tracked for up to ten consecutive days, and a total of 1061 trajectories were retrieved.

 A southward mean sea ice flow associated with the ECG was observed along with deviations in both direction and magnitude, suggesting the effect of an underlying turbulent eddy field. The absolute position and tracking errors associated with our method are 255  m and 0.65  cm/s, respectively, each derived from a comparison between manually and automatically identified ice floes. Going forward, our methodology will be employed to process longer time sequences to analyze nonlinear interactions between drifting ice floes and the upper ocean turbulent eddy field in the ECG as well as to investigate other prominent regions of the Arctic Ocean.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #423 on: November 15, 2019, 05:30:05 AM »
Thats a nice paper by Acosta et al.
Looking forward to arctic wide  analysis.

sidd

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #424 on: November 15, 2019, 02:33:13 PM »
Agree
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Tony Mcleod

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #425 on: November 20, 2019, 10:36:08 AM »
Crazy spike, s'gotta be 13 or14C above average. :o


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #426 on: November 20, 2019, 05:42:38 PM »
At least it's still below freezing.
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Phil.

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #427 on: November 20, 2019, 09:54:47 PM »
Crazy spike, s'gotta be 13 or14C above average. :o



It's been there for 4 days now.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #428 on: November 24, 2019, 08:39:22 PM »
Extraordinarily Warm Fall a Big Problem in Canadian Arctic
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/extraordinarily-warm-fall-a-big-problem-in-canadian-arctic-1.4699973

For Keith Morrison, the consequences of this fall's extraordinarily warm weather across the North all came down to an urgent call for help. The fire chief for the Arctic community of Cambridge Bay in Nunavut was at home the evening of Oct. 6 when he got word that a couple had fallen through the ice near a river mouth.

"It was pitch black," Morrison recalled. "It was a close thing."

It shouldn't have been a thing at all. That stretch of ice is normally safe by this time of year, but this autumn has not been normal.

"What differentiated this year was we saw a widespread warmer temperature anomaly across the board in the Arctic," said Environment Canada meteorologist Eric Dykes. "Temperature anomalies that are five degrees above normal are happening a little bit more readily than they have in years past."

Data from around the Arctic bear him out.

In Inuvik, N.W.T., temperatures on every single day between Sept. 1 and Nov. 11 were above normal. In Nunavut, Pond Inlet had only one day of below normal, while above-normal days occurred about 80 per cent of the time in the communities of Cambridge Bay and Pangnirtung.

Not only were temperatures warm, the amount of warming was noteworthy.

The Canadian Forces Station at Alert, on the top of Ellesmere Island, broke a record for Sept. 6 this year by six degrees. Pond Inlet experienced one day that was 11 degrees warmer than average.

And not only did Resolute, Nunavut, record 68 days of above-normal warmth, nearly half of those days were outside the normal temperature variation. Kugluktuk, Nunavut, was similar -- 58 warmer-than-average days, 34 of them outside the normal range.

... It's not the only change.

"There have been more sightings of killer whales, increasing every year," Arreak said.

"Insects are being reported that aren't usually around the area. We don't even know what they're called."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #429 on: November 25, 2019, 12:56:54 PM »
I’m worried’: Alaska’s ice cellars melting due to climate change after being used to store food for generations

...

Ranging from small arctic root cellars to spacious, wood-lined underground chambers, ice cellars are typically stocked with vast amounts of whale, walrus, seal and caribou.

These chambers, usually built 10 to 12 feet below the surface, have long been used to age subsistence food to perfection and ensure a steady supply during the sparser months, which is critical for survival.

...

“I’m worried,” said Gordon Brower, a Utquiagvik whaling captain whose family owns two ice cellars.

One is more than a century old more than 100 years old and used to store at least two tonnes whale meat set aside for community feasts. The other, built in 1955, is used to feed Mr Brower and his family.

He recently asked his son to retrieve some whale meat from the one of the cellars, and discovered both were in a bad state.

“He came back and said: ‘Dad, there’s a pool of blood and water at the bottom,’” said Mr Brower, who is now housing the community’s meat under a tarpaulin sheet above ground.

for details see:
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-permafrost-alaska-ice-cellars-melting-inupiat-food-storage-whaling-a9216571.html
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SimonF92

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #430 on: November 25, 2019, 06:25:13 PM »
Cool article, pardon the pun, but where on earth is;

" a native village built precariously on a thin spit of land caught between the Chukchi and Arctic oceans"

 :-\
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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #431 on: November 25, 2019, 06:29:37 PM »
Quote
the Chukchi and Arctic oceans"
oceans?
I didn't know the Chukchi was an ocean  ;D
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oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #432 on: December 04, 2019, 03:09:44 AM »
In reality Point Hope is wholly on the Chukchi Sea coast.

Point Barrow (Utqiagvik) is the official border between the  Chukchi and the Beaufort Sea.
Wrangel Island is the border between the Chukchi and the East Siberian Sea.
And of course the Bering Strait is the border between the Chukchi and the Bering Sea.
The Barrow-Wrangel line, or somewhere north of it, is the less-defined border to the Arctic Ocean.


blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #433 on: December 12, 2019, 05:12:40 PM »
EARTHQUAKE!

M 4.7 - North of Severnaya Zemlya

Time
2019-12-12 03:18:24 (UTC)
Location
83.323°N 115.124°E
Depth
10.0 km

paolo

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #434 on: December 12, 2019, 05:26:15 PM »
exact, apparently long a fault line (not very active)

nanning

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #435 on: December 13, 2019, 08:04:07 AM »
The race to lay claim on the Bering Strait as Arctic ice retreats

Melting sea ice is prompting fevered dreams of ever-easier access, and a renewed jockeying among Arctic nations for status, profit and ownership


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/12/bering-strait-northwest-passage-arctic-ice-melts
  by Kieran Mulvaney

"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #436 on: December 13, 2019, 04:55:04 PM »
Comparison of Climate Simulations with Proxies Suggests Arctic Sea Ice Could Vanish in Summer Sooner than Expected
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-comparison-climate-simulations-proxies-arctic.html

Climate models suggest that at some point in the near future, all of the Arctic sea ice will melt each summer. In this new effort, the researchers suggest that it will be sooner than climate models have been suggesting. The work involved exploring why proxy data shows the planet heating up more during a prior global warming period 6,000 to 8,000 years ago (called the Holocene thermal maximum) than current climate models. Proxies are things such as preserved pollen or ice cores from a given time period that give hints about temperatures during that period—since humans were not able to record temperatures at the time, scientists use these proxies instead.

The work by the researchers in Korea involved running 13 climate models to learn more about the thermal maximum, and then comparing what they showed with proxies. They report that they found that the most up-to-date simulations showed a bigger decline in Arctic sea ice than older models (because the ice would have continued melting into early winter), possibly explaining the discrepancy between proxy data and older simulations. They further suggest that their findings do not bode well for the current warming trend, because it suggests that Arctic sea ice will begin vanishing sooner than older climate models have predicted—and less ice means less energy reflection, contributing to faster global warming.


Fig. 2: Surface temperature and Arctic sea ice responses: (A and B) Zonally averaged, latitude-time Hovmöller plots of surface temperature anomalies in (A) the four warmest models and (B) the four coldest models. The abscissa is time (months) and the ordinate is latitude. Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC; %) anomalies in (C and D) the four warmest models and (E and F) the four coldest models, averaged in (C and E) July to November and (D and F) December to April.

The zonal mean time-latitude Hovmöller plots of surface temperature show that high-latitude (60°N-85°N) warming in summer persists into winter in the four warmest models (Fig. 2A), whereas the summer warming does not persist in the four coldest models (Fig. 2B). These results appear robustly in the case when the second and third warmest/coldest models are chosen for the Hovmöller plots of surface temperature (fig. S4), verifying that the seasonally persistent high-latitude warming is a general feature of warm models rather than an average artifact associated with the extremely warm model, CNRM-CM5. These results indicate that the key difference between the warmest and the coldest models is the magnitude of summer heating and its persistence into winter.

In the warmest models, Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in summer-autumn decreases by 30 to 35% over wide areas of the Arctic relative to the preindustrial climate (Fig. 2C), and these SIC anomalies persist into winter and early spring over the marginal ice zone (Fig. 2D), indicative of delayed refreezing and reduced ice growth (28). This autumn-winter sea ice loss is accompanied by increases in heat transfer from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, primarily through turbulent heat fluxes (fig. S5), further contributing to the Arctic amplification via the cloud radiative feedback (28–30). Moreover, the near-surface temperature inversion in the cold season confines the warming to the surface (30), and the associated weakening of temperature inversion can contribute to the Arctic amplification (23).

... The Arctic sea ice cover during the HTM was likely smaller than the preindustrial climate, as shown by proxy records (8, 9), which is consistent with a substantial Arctic warming in the mid-Holocene.

Quote
... this finding has implications for the projection of future climate change. Climate models simulating more Arctic sea ice loss in response to the mid-Holocene insolation generally exhibit higher sensitivities to an increased CO2 concentration (38). Therefore, our results suggest that the projected Arctic sea ice decline will likely to be faster than the multimodel ensemble mean prediction.

Open Access: Hyo-Seok Park et al. Mid-Holocene Northern Hemisphere warming driven by Arctic amplification, Science Advances (2019).

Abstract

The Holocene thermal maximum was characterized by strong summer solar heating that substantially increased the summertime temperature relative to preindustrial climate. However, the summer warming was compensated by weaker winter insolation, and the annual mean temperature of the Holocene thermal maximum remains ambiguous. Using multimodel mid-Holocene simulations, we show that the annual mean Northern Hemisphere temperature is strongly correlated with the degree of Arctic amplification and sea ice loss. Additional model experiments show that the summer Arctic sea ice loss persists into winter and increases the mid- and high-latitude temperatures. These results are evaluated against four proxy datasets to verify that the annual mean northern high-latitude temperature during the mid-Holocene was warmer than the preindustrial climate, because of the seasonally rectified temperature increase driven by the Arctic amplification. This study offers a resolution to the “Holocene temperature conundrum”, a well-known discrepancy between paleo-proxies and climate model simulations of Holocene thermal maximum.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #437 on: December 14, 2019, 02:46:11 PM »

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #438 on: December 14, 2019, 02:48:25 PM »
Amid state go-ahead for Arctic coal, growing doubts about big dig

Quote
State experts approve VostokCoal’s plans to export millions of tons of black rocks from the Taymyr Peninsula, but the grand project might not materialize.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/grand-arctic-coal-project-gets-go-ahead-state-experts

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #439 on: December 14, 2019, 02:49:30 PM »
Greenland’s Kangerlussuaq Airport to Close For Major Commercial Traffic in 2024 Due to Climate Change

Link >> https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-week-take-five-week-december-9-2019/

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #440 on: December 14, 2019, 06:32:19 PM »
Very interesting, B_!
Article includes:
Quote
... Kangerlussuaq Airport will be closed to commercial airlines ... due to shorter runways from rapidly melting permafrost. ...

Greenland’s airports are one of the many cases where rapid thawing permafrost will alter the lives of those in the Arctic. Recent studies on permafrost decline confirm that 70 percent of the Arctic’s roads, buildings, and airports have a high potential to be affected by thawing ground over the next 30 years. The effects of permafrost melt are not limited to road and housing infrastructure but also affect prospective developments in Russia’s Yamal region and Alaska’s Trans Alaska Pipeline.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #441 on: December 14, 2019, 06:54:18 PM »
Tor, i wasn't too sure if i was spamming or not, but what can i do when they post so many interesting articles, right? ;)

Thanks, Gerontocrat, for the x-posts. :)

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #442 on: December 17, 2019, 12:12:29 AM »
Earth's Magnetic North Pole Continues Drifting, Crosses Prime Meridian
https://www.livescience.com/amp/earth-magnetic-north-passes-prime-meridian.html

Compasses in Greenwich, London, are about to point to the "true north" for the first time since 1660—when Charles II was on the throne and the first English settlers were setting about colonizing the Americas.

Earth's magnetic north pole, which has been wandering faster than expected in recent years, has now crossed the prime meridian.

Magnetic north has been lurching away from its previous home in the Canadian Arctic toward Siberia at a rate of about 34 miles (55 kilometers) a year over the past two decades. The latest model of the Earth's magnetic field, released Dec. 10 by the National Centers for Environmental Information and the British Geological Survey, predicts that this movement will continue, though likely at a slower rate of 25 miles (40 km) each year.

... For reasons not entirely understood but related to the planet's interior dynamics, the magnetic field is currently undergoing a period of weakening. That's why magnetic north is drifting.

As of February 2019, magnetic north was located at 86.54 N 170.88 E, within the Arctic Ocean, according to the NCEI. (Magnetic south similarly does not line up with geographic south; it was at at 64.13 S 136.02 E off the coast of Antarctica as of February 2019.)

The 2020 model shows the "Blackout Zone" around magnetic north where compasses become unreliable and start to fail because of the proximity of true north. The new maps also show magnetic north east of the prime meridian, a boundary the pole crossed in September 2019.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #443 on: December 17, 2019, 03:18:28 AM »
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
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binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #444 on: December 17, 2019, 06:22:45 AM »
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #445 on: December 17, 2019, 10:23:32 AM »
On Rosatom’s wishing list is a large nuclear-powered oil tanker that can break through thick Arctic ice

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/rosatoms-wishing-list-large-nuclear-powered-oil-tanker-can-break-through

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #446 on: December 17, 2019, 10:24:23 AM »
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?

Why not? Let's see what happens. :)

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #447 on: December 17, 2019, 10:49:24 AM »
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?

Why not? Let's see what happens. :)
I'm asking for a friend ... wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects? But I guess nobody knows what will happen, and it's not going to flip all of a sudden as far as I understand it. More of a very slow (frum a human viewpoint) transition lasting some thousands of years.

Although I can see from Wikipedia that the Laschamp "excursion" of some 41.000 years ago lasted only a few hundred years, before flipping back. The strength of the magnetic field during transition was apparently only 5% of normal, leading to an increase in Be10 and C14 in Greenland ice cores, indicative of an increase in cosmic radiation and presumably an increase in cancer and birth defect rates.

So let's wait and see what happens, by all means, and wish for it as we go into the holiday season.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #448 on: December 17, 2019, 11:20:42 AM »
wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects?

I bet there was! For how i understand it, it's not correct.

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #449 on: December 17, 2019, 11:40:43 AM »
wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects?

I bet there was! For how i understand it, it's not correct.
As I understand it the Earth's magnetic field protects us, and our satellites, from a lot of solar nasties. A large reduction in the strength of that field would likely also mean the solar wind would cause a decay in the orbits of satellites.

be careful what you wish for.
________________________________________________________
Quote
The Earth's magnetic field serves to deflect most of the solar wind, whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.

Earth's magnetic field - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Earth's_magnetic_field
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