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Aluminium

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #500 on: June 05, 2020, 12:25:22 PM »
Containment booms have stopped the spill before Lake Pyasino. It will take a time to collect it.


blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #501 on: June 24, 2020, 03:04:12 PM »
The Russian Arctic is seeing record-breaking heat, and an early start to wildfires

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/the-russian-arctic-is-seeing-record-breaking-heat-and-an-early-start-to-wildfires/

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #502 on: June 29, 2020, 03:16:24 AM »
Russian Mining Giant Admits Waste 'Violations' at Arctic Plant
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-russian-giant-violations-arctic.html

A Russian mining giant behind an enormous Arctic fuel spill last month said Sunday it had suspended workers at a metals plant who were responsible for pumping wastewater into nearby tundra.



Norilsk Nickel cited a "flagrant violation of operating rules" in a statement announcing it had suspended employees responsible for dumping wastewater from a dangerously full reservoir into a wildlife area.

The incident occurred at the Talnakh enrichment plant near the Arctic city of Norilsk, the company said, one month after the unprecedented fuel leak sparked a state of emergency declared by President Vladimir Putin.

More than 21,000 tonnes of diesel leaked from a fuel storage tank at one of the company's subsidiary plants near Norilsk. The fuel seeped into the soil and dyed nearby waterways bright red.

A source told Interfax news agency Sunday that in the most recent case, around 6,000 cubic meters of liquid used to process minerals at the facility had been dumped and that the discharge had lasted "several hours".

It was impossible to determine how far the wastewater had dispersed, the source said.



Independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta published videos from the scene showing large metal pipes carrying wastewater from the reservoir and dumping foaming liquid into nearby trees.

The journalists claimed the factory deliberately funnelled the wastewater into wildlife areas and hastily removed their pipes when investigators and emergency services arrived on the scene.

Heavy machinery used to clear the pipes crushed a car delivering officials to the scene, Novaya Gazeta reported.



Interfax said no one was injured in the incident which was also being probed
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 03:23:17 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #503 on: June 29, 2020, 08:00:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1277171510764068864

Quote
How much faster is the #Arctic warming than the global average? Locally up to 5 times faster, but in general 3-4 times.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #504 on: June 29, 2020, 08:01:19 PM »
Quote
If using only the past 30-year trends, the warming rate is higher and reaches locally up to 7 times! (Note the different color scale).


ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #505 on: June 29, 2020, 08:02:40 PM »
Quote
Was interested in different datasets when I saw @ClimateofGavin  tweet - seems to be similar or even enhanced (ratio up to 5.75) in Cowtan and Way using their Kriging (preliminary plot, apologies for projection :))


ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #506 on: June 29, 2020, 08:13:44 PM »
The most significant warming is really in the area Vavilov Ice Cap

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-unprecedented-ice-loss-russian-cap.html

Quote
The Vavilov Ice Cap thinned by a total of a few meters, advanced about 2 km, and lost about 1.2 km3 in total volume into the ocean in the 30 years before the speedup. In the one year between 2015 and 2016, the ice advanced about 4 kilometers and thinned by about 100 meters (~0.3 m per day). The ice cap lost about 4.5 km3 of ice, enough to cover Manhattan with about 250 feet of water, or the entire state of Washington with an inch. And it's unlikely the ice cap will ever be able to recover ice mass in today's warming climate, the paper states.




vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #507 on: July 01, 2020, 03:10:27 AM »
Beavers Gnawing Away at the Arctic Permafrost
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-beavers-gnawing-arctic-permafrost.html

Alaska's beavers are profiting from climate change, and spreading rapidly. In just a few years' time, they have not only expanded into many tundra regions where they'd never been seen before; they're also building more and more dams in their new homes, creating a host of new water bodies. This could accelerate the thawing of the permafrost soils, and therefore intensify climate change, as an International American-German research team reports in the journal Environmental Research Letters.


The upper two images are photos taken within the study area in 2016 showing the tundra region setting. The bottom two images are taken from similar tundra across Hotham Inlet in 2015 (lower left) and 2011 (lower right) showing beaver dams in a drained lake basin outlet and along a beaded stream course, respectively.

... Back in 2018, Ingmar Nitze and Guido Grosse from the AWI, together with colleagues from the U.S., determined that the beavers living in an 18,000-square-kilometer section of northwest Alaska had created 56 new lakes in just five years. For their new study, the team from the AWI, the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, and the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis have now taken a closer look at this trend. Using detailed satellite data and extended time series, the experts tracked the beavers' activities in two other regions in Alaska—and were surprised by what they found.

"Of course, we knew that the beavers there had spread substantially over the last few decades," says Nitze. This is partly due to climate change; thanks to rising temperatures, now more and more habitats offer the shrubs that the animals need for food and building material. Furthermore, the lakes, which used to freeze solid, now offer beaver-friendlier conditions, thanks to their thinner seasonal winter ice cover. Lastly, the rodents aren't hunted as intensively as in the past. As a result, it's a good time to be a beaver in the Arctic.

"But we never would have dreamed they would seize the opportunity so intensively," says Nitze. The high-resolution satellite images of the roughly 100-square-kilometer study area near the town of Kotzebue reveal the scale of the animals' activities there. From just two dams in 2002, the number had risen to 98 by 2019—a 5,000-percent increase, with more than 5 new dams being constructed per year. And the larger area surveyed, which covers the entire northern Baldwin Peninsula, also experienced a beaver dam boom. According to Nitze, "We're seeing exponential growth there. The number of these structures doubles roughly every four years."

This has already affected the water balance. Apparently, the rodents intentionally do their work in those parts of the landscape that they can most easily flood. To do so, sometimes they dam up small streams, and sometimes the outlets of existing lakes, which expand as a result. "But they especially prefer drained lake basins," Benjamin Jones, lead author of the study, and Nitze report. In many cases, the bottoms of these former lakes are prime locations for beaver activity. "The animals have intuitively found that damming the outlet drainage channels at the sites of former lakes is an efficient way to create habitat. So a new lake is formed which degrades ice-rich permafrost in the basin, adding to the effect of increasing the depth of the engineered waterbody," added Jones. These actions have their consequences: in the course of the 17-year timeframe studied, the overall water area in the Kotzebue region grew by 8.3 percent. And roughly two-thirds of that growth was due to the beavers.

The researchers suspect that there have been similar construction booms in other regions of the Arctic; accordingly, they now want to expand their 'beaver manhunt' across the Arctic. "The growth in Canada, for example, is most likely even more extreme," says Nitze. And each additional lake thaws the permafrost below it and on its banks. Granted, the frozen soil could theoretically bounce back after a few years, when the beaver dams break; but whether or not the conditions will be sufficiently cold for that to happen is anyone's guess.


Mapping beaver dams in high-resolution satellite imagery available for the northern Baldwin Peninsula, Alaska. The location of individual dams indicated with red arrow and the flow direction with a light blue arrow. (a) A series of four dams at the outlet of a lake, (b) a ~60 m long dam built in a drained lake basin, (c) a series of dams at the outlet of a lake near a confluence with a beaded stream, (d) a series of dams in a channel running through the middle of a drained lake basin, (e) five dams progressing down the outlet channel of a thermokarst lake, and (f) a series of dams in a beaded stream gulch. Examples shown here taken from 2019 images; note differences in scale across image frames. All dams were constructed after 2002.

Benjamin M. Jones et al, Increase in beaver dams controls surface water and thermokarst dynamics in an Arctic tundra region, Baldwin Peninsula, northwestern Alaska, Environmental Research Letters (2020).
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab80f1
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #508 on: July 05, 2020, 10:38:41 PM »
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/
« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 10:46:07 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Frivolousz21

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #509 on: July 06, 2020, 12:11:25 AM »
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/


Is there any other information out there about the AMSR3 instrument?

Those high GHZ channels are going to be super high res like 1-2km or better.


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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #510 on: July 08, 2020, 12:01:29 AM »
Climate Change May Cause Extreme Waves in Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-climate-extreme-arctic.html

New research projects the annual maximum wave height will get up to two to three times higher than it is now along coastlines in areas of the Arctic such as along the Beaufort Sea. The new study in AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans suggests waves could get up to 2 meters (6.6 feet) higher than current wave heights by the end of the century.

In addition, extreme wave events that used to occur once every 20 years might increase to occur once every two to five years on average, according to the study. In other words, the frequency of such extreme coastal flooding might increase by a factor of 4 to 10 by the end of this century.

"It increases the risk of flooding and erosion. It increases drastically almost everywhere," said Mercè Casas-Prat, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Climate Research Division and the lead author of the new study. "This can have a direct impact to the communities that live close to the shoreline."

... Among the hardest-hit areas was in the Greenland Sea, which lies between Greenland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. The study found maximum annual wave heights there could increase by as much as 6 meters (19.7 feet).

... The researchers' predictions also showed that by the end of the century, the timing of the highest waves may also change.

"At the end of the century, the maximum will on average come later in the year and also be more extreme," Casas-Prat said.

... In another recent study published in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters, Casas-Prat and Wang examined the contribution of sea ice retreat on the projected increases in extreme wave heights in the Arctic. They found that surface winds alone cannot explain the changes in the regional maximum wave heights.

"Sea ice retreat plays an important role, not just by increasing the distance over which wind can blow and generate waves but also by increasing the chance of strong winds to occur over widening ice-free waters," Casas-Prat said.

Increased waves could also increase the speed of ice breakup. The loss of ice due to waves could affect animals like polar bears which hunt seals on polar ice as well as a number of other creatures that rely on ice. It could also affect shipping routes in the future.

Mercé Casas‐Prat et al, Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential implications for coastal inundation and erosion, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745

Mercè Casas‐Prat et al. Sea‐ice retreat contributes to projected increases in extreme Arctic ocean surface waves, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088100
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 12:25:53 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #511 on: July 08, 2020, 08:40:37 PM »
A new polar bear denning study is a mixed bag for Alaska’s oil industry

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/a-new-polar-bear-denning-study-is-a-mixed-bag-for-the-oil-industry/

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #512 on: July 10, 2020, 03:08:20 PM »
A ‘regime shift’ is happening in the Arctic Ocean, Stanford scientists say

Stanford scientists find the growth of phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean has increased 57 percent over just two decades, enhancing its ability to soak up carbon dioxide. While once linked to melting sea ice, the increase is now propelled by rising concentrations of tiny algae.


Scientists at Stanford University have discovered a surprising shift in the Arctic Ocean. Exploding blooms of phytoplankton, the tiny algae at the base of a food web topped by whales and polar bears, have drastically altered the Arctic’s ability to transform atmospheric carbon into living matter. Over the past decade, the surge has replaced sea ice loss as the biggest driver of changes in uptake of carbon dioxide by phytoplankton.

...

Arrigo and colleagues found that NPP in the Arctic increased 57 percent between 1998 and 2018. That’s an unprecedented jump in productivity for an entire ocean basin. More surprising is the discovery that while NPP increases were initially linked to retreating sea ice, productivity continued to climb even after melting slowed down around 2009. “The increase in NPP over the past decade is due almost exclusively to a recent increase in phytoplankton biomass,” Arrigo said.

Put another way, these microscopic algae were once metabolizing more carbon across the Arctic simply because they were gaining more open water over longer growing seasons, thanks to climate-driven changes in ice cover. Now, they are growing more concentrated, like a thickening algae soup.

“In a given volume of water, more phytoplankton were able to grow each year,” said lead study author Kate Lewis, who worked on the research as a PhD student in Stanford’s Department of Earth System Science. “This is the first time this has been reported in the Arctic Ocean.”

...

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/07/09/regime-shift-happening-arctic-ocean/

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #513 on: July 13, 2020, 11:02:20 AM »
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundra
Quote
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra

KenB

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #514 on: July 13, 2020, 02:02:04 PM »
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundra
Quote
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra

Apparently another storage tank whose permafrost "foundation" gave way.  One wonders how many such there are.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Freegrass

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #515 on: July 14, 2020, 12:43:52 AM »
Unu Mondo is a 4 months sailing expedition into the Arctic aimed to gather scientific data and testimonies from local communities to better anticipate climate change and promote concrete actions.

Leaving from Saint-Malo, France it will reach Greenland (2020) then Alaska through the famous Northwest Passage (2021), stopping on the road in the villages of the West coast of Greenland and will culminate in a documentary.

Unu Mondo team is composed of 2 skippers, a handful of scientists and a pinch of audiovisual professionals.

Departure on June 29, 2020
https://www.unumondo.org/
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KenB

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #517 on: July 16, 2020, 10:48:15 PM »
Something new *above* the arctic:

ESA is changing the orbit of its CryoSat-2 satellite to periodically align with NASA's ICESat-2. This will provide radar and lidar measurements of the same ice, at nearly the same time. The campaign, dubbed #CRYO2ICE, will be taking place between 16 and 31 July and is the first of its kind.

The new data resulting from the campaign will allow scientists to measure snow depth from space on both sea and land, improving the accuracy of sea ice thickness measurements and ice-sheet elevation time series. The measurements will also help map snow over the poles and advance our understanding of currents in polar oceans, with further applications expected in the study of inland waters and the atmosphere.

https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/cryosat/cryo2ice
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

ajouis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #518 on: July 18, 2020, 04:24:13 PM »
Not that new but very informative on both the high pressure/low pressure and anticyclonic/waa debates on what is more conducive to melt (hint probably the formers is what the study says)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022608#jgrd52033-fig-0006

High melt months are linked to higher pressure, increased sea of Okhotsk cloud cover in the later part of the melt season, very weakly with increased surface temperatures who trend towards 0, less clouds overall but an increase at the ice edge in august, reduced precipitations overall but higher in the sea of Okhotsk, less arctic cyclones except northern Alaska and northeastern Siberia, also a southward jet shift in the N. Atlantic and increased sea ice export.
I really urge you to read it, it’s very informative. Obviously correlation isn’t causation. It also has various other snippets of information, notably on the relationships that exist with the weather patterns of the rest of the northern hemisphere.
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

uniquorn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #519 on: July 20, 2020, 09:57:40 PM »
New bathy maps in netcdf and geotiff format
https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/arctic_ocean/
very large files

KenB

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #520 on: July 22, 2020, 03:50:28 PM »
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

ajouis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #521 on: July 23, 2020, 10:42:27 AM »
the formation of the sea ice ridges, they require freezing (-1.8 ) air temperatures to form.
https://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C05/E6-178-66.pdf

The initial phase starts during ridge formation and is characterized by the formation of
freeze-bonds. Three different heat fluxes are important: a) the surface flux ( qsur ), into the cold surrounding air, b) the oceanic flux ( qocean ), from the ocean beneath and c) the
internal fluxes ( qre ), in between the cold pieces of ice and the warm water pockets
inside the keel (Figure 3). The surface flux freezes the water pockets from the top and downwards and creates a cold front that defines the consolidated layer. The initial cold content of the ice is partly spent in making freeze bonds and partly consumed by the oceanic flux. The fraction that goes into making freeze bonds depends on the initial ice temperatures, the block thicknesses, the ridge size and the oceanic conditions. When all the ice and water below the cold front is isothermal that is at the freezing point of the surrounding water the initial phase ends.
The rubble beneath the consolidated layer is thermally insulated by the freezing front on top of it, and feels only the water below. Since the conditions are isothermal there is no longer any cold reserve available and the rubble decays continuously. The rubble transforms from individual ice blocks with freeze bonds to an ice skeleton with a hierarchy of pores, from a few centimeters and up to meter(s).
In the decay phase the ridge is heated both from the top and from the bottom. The ridge now either melts completely, or it transforms into a second-year ridge during the summer. Several processes take place. On the surface the warm air and the sun radiation melts the snow and the surface ice and creates relatively fresh melt-water. Its freezing point is above the temperature in the rubble so it will freeze as it drizzles down in the keel. This freezing process release heat and increases the temperatures in the rubble. In this way the decay phase includes both melting and freezing. Freezing can take place as long as there is cold capacity (ice temperature less than the freezing point of the melt water) in the keel. However, another mechanism can contribute to further consolidation. If the pore water salinity is changed cyclically, either by periodic surface melting or by tidally driven river runoff the ridge could actually expel heat into the surrounding water
and contribute to further freezing (consolidation). This mechanism is only shown in laboratory investigations and in simulations. Finally the ridge keel could collapse and in this way decrease the porosity and increase the degree of consolidation. By the end of the melt season the ridge has become a second-year ridge.
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #522 on: July 23, 2020, 11:29:44 AM »
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians.

Yesterday i saw there was a whole cluster of earthquakes. I was about to ask what's it all about but forgot to post it.

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #523 on: July 28, 2020, 06:05:37 PM »
It's not stopping. For a week or so there are lots of earthquakes.

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #524 on: August 01, 2020, 05:35:00 AM »
Article in Scientific American about the current state of affairs and some tentative predictions:

Quote
On the other hand, strong storms can substantially break up the ice, potentially leaving it more vulnerable to higher temperatures and faster melting later in the season. And they can churn up the ocean, as well, allowing warmer waters to rise to the surface.

Quote
It’s all part of the vicious cycle of Arctic climate change. Within just a few decades, scientists predict the Arctic could be seeing totally ice-free summers.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #525 on: August 01, 2020, 05:33:09 PM »
The biggest ever science expedition to the Arctic encountered extremely thin sea ice, which could threaten future efforts to study the region.

A team on board the Polarstern icebreaker ship began drifting last September until their vessel became locked in an ice floe. In the area off the Russian continental shelf where they started their journey, the ice was exceptionally thin compared with what models had predicted for the past two decades. The ice was around 50 centimetres thick, while it had been around 150 to 160 centimetres thick in three years of …

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248111-arctic-explorers-find-unusually-thin-ice-as-a-result-of-climate-change/#ixzz6TsgwliNk

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #526 on: August 01, 2020, 07:31:55 PM »
Or visit the MOSAiC thread in this very forum.
:)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #527 on: August 01, 2020, 09:32:38 PM »
Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations.

This work evaluates the statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) anomaly – here defined as the detrended and deseasonalized SIV – on the interannual timescale. To do so, we made use of six datasets, from three different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, with two different horizontal grid resolutions each. Based on these datasets, we have developed a statistical empirical model which in turn was used to test the performance of different predictor variables, as well as to identify optimal locations from where the SIV anomaly could be better reconstructed and/or predicted. We tested the hypothesis that an ideal sampling strategy characterized by only a few optimal sampling locations can provide in situ data for statistically reproducing and/or predicting the SIV interannual variability. The results showed that, apart from the SIV itself, the sea ice thickness is the best predictor variable, although total sea ice area, sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature, and sea ice drift can also contribute to improving the prediction skill.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2409/2020/

Click to run, July 10th to 8th of August, sea ice thickness.

« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 10:42:42 AM by glennbuck »

Glen Koehler

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #528 on: August 01, 2020, 09:45:05 PM »
    Interesting graphic from article posted above showing which sampling locations provided best reduction in variability for predicting Arctic sea ice volume.  They conclude that predictive skill increases with number of sample locations up to six, but predictive skill improvement by adding locations 7-10 was minimal.

Figure 8.  Optimal observing framework, as suggested by the ensemble of model outputs, for sampling predictor variables in order to statistically reconstruct and/or predict the pan-Arctic SIV anomaly. The numbers indicate the first up to the 10th best observing locations in respective order. The hatched area around each location (same colour code) represents their respective region of influence. The selection of points respects the hierarchy of the regions of influence in a way that the second point can not be placed within the region of influence no. 1 (shades of red), the third point can not be placed within the regions of influence nos. 1 and 2 (shades of red and purple), and so on.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 09:54:06 PM by Glen Koehler »
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blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #529 on: August 04, 2020, 05:50:25 PM »
M 4.6 Earthquake north of Severnaya Zemlya

Time: 2020-08-04 14:52:15 (UTC)
Location: 83.441°N 115.387°E
Depth: 10.0 km

glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #530 on: August 05, 2020, 02:13:02 PM »
Earthquake north of Svalbard.

M 5.3 - north of Svalbard

2020-08-05 08:48:06 (UTC)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000b9kr/executive

glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #531 on: August 10, 2020, 03:04:18 AM »


More freshwater could cause changes to ocean currents in the North Atlantic — the currents that help keep winter temperatures in northern Europe more mild, Jahn said.

This change might be felt within the next decade, if not already, she added.

“Within climate context, that’s kind of soon,” Jahn said.

Those colder winter temperatures would actually mitigate the impacts of global warming in northern Europe, she said — at least for a while.

But in the long term, disrupted ocean currents could have negative effects on climate and on the North Atlantic’s ecosystems, the study says.

https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2020/08/04/fresh-water-is-pouring-into-the-arctic-ocean-climate-change-is-to-blame-new-study-says/

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #532 on: August 10, 2020, 06:50:56 AM »
Interesting article this morning on the newssite of "Danmarks Radio", the danish state broadcaster.

It is in Danish, but google translate will probably give a good gist of the content. But some highlights:

Quote
A new analysis from the University of Copenhagen and DMI, among others, shows that the air temperature near the surface of the Arctic Ocean has risen by an average of one degree per decade over the last 40 years.

In some areas it has risen by almost two degrees.

Further down they explain that the 2 degree rise has happened over those areas of ocean that used to be covered with ice but are now ice free in summer.

The article mentioned can be viewed here, although unfortunately not open-source.

Quote
Most scientists agree that the Arctic will be completely free of sea ice in summer during this century.

There is, however, disagreement as to when this will happen. Some climate models show that this will happen in the 2050s. Others point out that it could happen as early as the 2030s.

- But virtually none of the models have foreseen the rapid warming of the Arctic that we are already seeing now. This means that the sea ice can disappear even earlier, says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

He estimates that it is now the early estimates that are most realistic.

- It is problematic if we are too conservative in our estimate for when the sea ice is gone. Because that means we can not react in time, he says.

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen is professor of climatology at the Niels Bohr Institute.
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glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #533 on: August 12, 2020, 02:10:38 PM »
Dr Victoria Herrmann is the president and managing director of the Arctic Institute

When the organic material begins to decompose, permafrost thaw can destabilize major infrastructure, discharge mercury levels dangerous to human health and release billions of metric tons of carbon. We witnessed small-scale damage in Russia that summer through slumped landscapes and uneven roads. At the time, the larger, more dramatic changes were predicted to unfold over the course of this century.

Four years later, those changes are happening much sooner than scientists predicted. The carbon-laden cold of the Arctic’s permafrost is leaking into Earth’s atmosphere, and we are not ready for the consequences.

In June, the Russian Arctic reached 100.4F, the highest temperature in the Arctic since record-keeping began in 1885. The heat shocked scientists, but was not a unique or unusual event in a climate-changed world. The Arctic is warming at nearly three times the rate of the global average, and June’s single-day high was part of a month-long heatwave. This relentless heat has melted sea ice and made traditional subsistence dangerous for skilled Indigenous hunters. It’s fueled costly wildfires, some of which are so strong they now last from one summer to the next. And it’s sped up permafrost thaw, buckling roads and displacing entire communities.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/11/arctic-tundra-paris-climate-agreement
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 02:21:18 PM by glennbuck »

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #534 on: August 12, 2020, 11:11:14 PM »
The latest study says that temperatures rose by 1 degree Celsius every decade over the past 40 years in the Arctic Ocean between Russia, Canada and Europe. In areas between Russia and Norway, temperatures increased by 1.5 degrees every decade over the past 40 years.

“We have been clearly underestimating the rate of temperature increases in the atmosphere nearest to the sea level,” said University of Copenhagen professor Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, one of the study’s researchers.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/12/arctic-warming-faster-than-previously-thought-study-a71119

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #535 on: August 13, 2020, 06:38:33 PM »
Not sure if this is the best place,  but I just read Konrad Steffen died after falling through ice in Greenland.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/renowned-climate-scientist-konrad-steffen-132226331.html

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #536 on: August 13, 2020, 07:44:26 PM »
OMG, that is horrible. :'(

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #537 on: August 13, 2020, 08:42:06 PM »
Quote
Steffen fell into a deep crevasse full of water, Swiss media reports say, after snow and ice gave way beneath him while he worked near a weather station. Rescue attempts were unsuccessful, and his body was not found.

Clearly this is not the Greenland they were used to.

RIP Konrad Steffen. I know some will probably find this harsh but being buried in the Greenland ice sheet is actually pretty cool. Yes dying sucks but you would not be able to pull of the burial going through the usual paper work.
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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #538 on: August 14, 2020, 12:59:59 PM »
RIP Konrad Steffen. I know some will probably find this harsh but being buried in the Greenland ice sheet is actually pretty cool.

It is certainly a dramatic and tragic metaphor for What's new in the Arctic.

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #539 on: August 21, 2020, 11:45:52 PM »
Arctic Ocean Moorings Shed Light On Winter Sea Ice Loss
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-arctic-ocean-winter-sea-ice.html

The eastern Arctic Ocean's winter ice grew less than half as much as normal during the past decade, due to the growing influence of heat from the ocean's interior, researchers have found.



The finding came from an international study led by the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The study, published in the Journal of Climate, used data collected by ocean moorings in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean from 2003-2018.

The moorings measured the heat released from the ocean interior to the upper ocean and sea ice during winter. In 2016-2018, the estimated heat flux was about 10 watts per square meter, which is enough to prevent 80-90 centimeters (almost 3 feet) of sea ice from forming each year. Previous heat flux measurements were about half of that much.

"In the past, when weighing the contribution of atmosphere and ocean to melting sea ice in the Eurasian Basin, the atmosphere led," said Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at UAF's International Arctic Research Center and FMI. "Now for the first time, ocean leads. That's a big change."

Typically, across much of the Arctic a thick layer of cold fresher water, known as a halocline, isolates the heat associated with the intruding Atlantic water from the sea surface and from sea ice.

This new study shows that an abnormal influx of salty warm water from the Atlantic Ocean is weakening and thinning the halocline, allowing more mixing. According to the new study, warm water of Atlantic origin is now moving much closer to the surface.

"The normal position of the upper boundary of this water in this region was about 150 meters. Now this water is at 80 meters,"
explained Polyakov.



A natural winter process increases this mixing. As sea water freezes, the salt is expelled from ice into the water. This brine-enriched water is heavier and sinks. In the absence of a strong halocline, the cold salty water mixes much more efficiently with the shallower, warm Atlantic water. This heat is then transferred upward to the bottom of sea ice, limiting the amount of ice that can form during winter.

Polyakov and his team hypothesize that the ocean's ability to control winter ice growth creates feedback that speeds overall sea ice loss in the Arctic. In this feedback, both declining sea ice and the weakening halocline barrier cause the ocean's interior to release heat to the surface, resulting in further sea ice loss. The mechanism augments the well-known ice-albedo feedback—which occurs when the atmosphere melts sea ice, causing open water, which in turn absorbs more heat, melting more sea ice.

When these two feedback mechanisms combine, they accelerate sea ice decline. The ocean heat feedback limits sea ice growth in winter, while the ice-albedo feedback more easily melts the thinner ice in summer.

"As they start working together, the coupling between the atmosphere, ice and ocean becomes very strong, much stronger than it was before," said Polyakov. "Together they can maintain a very fast rate of ice melt in the Arctic."

Polyakov and Rippeth collaborated on a second, associated study showing how this new coupling between the ocean, ice and atmosphere is responsible for stronger currents in the eastern Arctic Ocean.

According to that research, between 2004-2018 the currents in the upper 164 feet of the ocean doubled in strength. Loss of sea ice, making surface waters more susceptible to the effects of wind, appears to be one of the factors contributing to the increase.

The stronger currents create more turbulence, which increases the amount of mixing, known as shear, that occurs between surface waters and the deeper ocean. As described earlier, ocean mixing contributes to a feedback mechanism that further accelerates sea ice decline.



Igor V. Polyakov et al, Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean, Journal of Climate (2020)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/18/8107/353233/Weakening-of-Cold-Halocline-Layer-Exposes-Sea-Ice

Igor V. Polyakov et al. Intensification of Near‐Surface Currents and Shear in the Eastern Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL089469
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binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #540 on: August 22, 2020, 04:49:04 AM »
Thank you, extremely interesting!

The ocean is changing and new currents are indeed messing with things. And this fits in well with the hypothesis that has been gathering weight in the back of my head over the last few years, which is that increasingly open waters in the Arctic are becoming ever more destructive and will in the end cause the total collapse of the ice.

The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.

And of course, this means that there is no "protected" ice at the top, as can perhaps be seen this year more than ever. As the ice edge retreats, the rest of the ice will become ever more likely to melt.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #541 on: August 26, 2020, 05:44:03 PM »
Helge Ryggvik, an oil historian at the University of Oslo, says Norway’s move is a result of the oil industry struggling, a crisis which has worsened during the coronavirus pandemic. “When prime minister Erna Solberg’s government announced the lease auction would go ahead, it was the culmination of a decades-long process that has seen Norway slowly edging ever further north,” he said.

Norway set the expected southern limit of ocean ice, also know as the “ice edge”, south of Svalbard in June. Oil exploration north of the edge is not permitted.

“In the recent ice-edge compromise, which redrew the zone, Norway is approaching the absolute limit of where oil exploration would be accepted by other nations,” said Ryggvik.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/26/norway-plans-to-drill-for-oil-in-untouched-arctic-areas-svalbard

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #542 on: August 27, 2020, 12:11:19 AM »
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.
A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.

That's when I had the idea to look at open water area instead of ice cover. I also thought thatn looking at it by various periods during the year and by each sea.

I attach some examples - the Barents Sea which is more an open water sea than an ice sea, the Kara & Laptev which are certainly changing, and the icy desert of the Central Arctic Sea - still barely touched for most of the year.

I even wrote it all up - but it needs a complete rewrite.. All I need is several days of peace and quiet to reassemble it.
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glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #543 on: August 27, 2020, 12:20:37 AM »
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.
A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.

That's when I had the idea to look at open water area instead of ice cover. I also thought thatn looking at it by various periods during the year and by each sea.

I attach some examples - the Barents Sea which is more an open water sea than an ice sea, the Kara & Laptev which are certainly changing, and the icy desert of the Central Arctic Sea - still barely touched for most of the year.

I even wrote it all up - but it needs a complete rewrite.. All I need is several days of peace and quiet to reassemble it.

Great to study them Gerontocrat do you have one for the Greenland Sea?

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #544 on: August 27, 2020, 12:30:11 PM »
do you have one for the Greenland Sea?

Yes, but how much can ge gained from it?

If not for ice import from the Fram, the Grrenalnd sea would be ice-free in summer and much less ice in winter. So the data is very dependent on that ice import.

Just maybe there is a visible effect of the reduction in mult-year ice in the central arctic, so ice imported into the Greenland Sea is less thick and more easily melts out.
________________________________________________________
Note.
As the Greenland Sea has an open water boundary, I use the maximum daily sea ice extent from the satellite record as the physical area of the sea. The percentage of open water is for each period is calculated as follows....

Area of the Sea minus sea ice area = Open water
Open Water divided by Area of the Sea = % Open Water.

Calculate for each day and average for the period being graphed.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 12:37:18 PM by gerontocrat »
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glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #545 on: August 27, 2020, 02:46:51 PM »
do you have one for the Greenland Sea?

Yes, but how much can ge gained from it?
________________________________________________________
Note.
As the Greenland Sea has an open water boundary, I use the maximum daily sea ice extent from the satellite record as the physical area of the sea. The percentage of open water is for each period is calculated as follows....

Area of the Sea minus sea ice area = Open water
Open Water divided by Area of the Sea = % Open Water.

Calculate for each day and average for the period being graphed.

More to do with my last post why Norway is moving Oil exploration towards Svalbard and Russia expanded their military presence on the nearby Franz Josef Land archipelago, they must be expecting it to be ice free all year round in the near future.

Norway set the expected southern limit of ocean ice, also know as the “ice edge”, south of Svalbard in June. Oil exploration north of the edge is not permitted.

“In the recent ice-edge compromise, which redrew the zone, Norway is approaching the absolute limit of where oil exploration would be accepted by other nations,” said Ryggvik.

“In the past few years, Russia has modernised its northern nuclear submarine fleet and expanded their military presence on the nearby Franz Josef Land archipelago,” says Ryggvik.

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #546 on: August 27, 2020, 02:58:34 PM »
This one is for bbr2314 - and it's open access with figures & graphs galore.
I've added me graph on open water percentages.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-split/33/18/8069/348406/Severe-Cold-Winter-in-North-America-Linked-to
Severe Cold Winter in North America Linked to Bering Sea Ice Loss
Quote
Abstract
North America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades. Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice. Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 03:08:05 PM by gerontocrat »
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glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #547 on: August 27, 2020, 08:03:21 PM »
This one is for bbr2314 - and it's open access with figures & graphs galore.
I've added me graph on open water percentages.


Forgot to say thanks for posting the Greenland Sea graphs.

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #548 on: August 28, 2020, 02:30:48 PM »
What's new in the Arctic ? The Tall Ship Sedov.

Can we track it?

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2020/08/hundred-years-old-tall-ship-sedov-embarks-historic-arctic-voyage#:~:text=Never%20before%20has%20a%20sailing,seas%20since%201st%20November%202019.
Hundred years old tall ship "Sedov" embarks on historic Arctic voyage

The ship will be the first of its kind that sails across the Northern Sea Route
Quote
It will be a voyage quite out of the ordinary for the crew that on the 18th August sets out from Vladivostok with course for the North. Never before has a sailing ship of this proportion made it across the Arctic route that connects the Asian and European parts of Russia.

The sailing on the Northern Sea Route follows a grand voyage that has taken the “Sedov” more than 25 thousand nautical miles across world seas since 1st November 2019.

“Following a detailed study of possible alternatives for the bark’s continued sailing, we consider it relevant to propose that the “Sedov” completes its expedition with a voyage across the Northern Sea Route from the east to west,” leader of Russia’s Fisheries Agency Ilya Shestyakov said in late July.

“We believe that such a voyage will have a great symbolic and practical effect,” Shestyakov underlined.

The ship is expected to reach reach its home port of Kaliningrad on 15th November this year. On its Arctic expedition, the vessel is due to visit the ports of Pevek, Sabetta and Murmansk. It is also expected to make a halt in the archipelago of Novaya Zemlya.

Careful safety preparations have been made both for the ship and its crew. The ship’s route across the Arctic will proceed in ice-free waters and assistance from special crafts vessels will be available if needed, the Fishery Agency informs.

Until year 2017, the “Sedov” was based in Murmansk and the ship has made several voyages in Arctic waters. But is has never made it across the whole Northern Sea Route. The ship is today operated by the federal Fishery Agency.
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