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Aluminium

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #500 on: June 05, 2020, 12:25:22 PM »
Containment booms have stopped the spill before Lake Pyasino. It will take a time to collect it.


blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #501 on: June 24, 2020, 03:04:12 PM »
The Russian Arctic is seeing record-breaking heat, and an early start to wildfires

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/the-russian-arctic-is-seeing-record-breaking-heat-and-an-early-start-to-wildfires/
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #502 on: June 29, 2020, 03:16:24 AM »
Russian Mining Giant Admits Waste 'Violations' at Arctic Plant
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-russian-giant-violations-arctic.html

A Russian mining giant behind an enormous Arctic fuel spill last month said Sunday it had suspended workers at a metals plant who were responsible for pumping wastewater into nearby tundra.



Norilsk Nickel cited a "flagrant violation of operating rules" in a statement announcing it had suspended employees responsible for dumping wastewater from a dangerously full reservoir into a wildlife area.

The incident occurred at the Talnakh enrichment plant near the Arctic city of Norilsk, the company said, one month after the unprecedented fuel leak sparked a state of emergency declared by President Vladimir Putin.

More than 21,000 tonnes of diesel leaked from a fuel storage tank at one of the company's subsidiary plants near Norilsk. The fuel seeped into the soil and dyed nearby waterways bright red.

A source told Interfax news agency Sunday that in the most recent case, around 6,000 cubic meters of liquid used to process minerals at the facility had been dumped and that the discharge had lasted "several hours".

It was impossible to determine how far the wastewater had dispersed, the source said.



Independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta published videos from the scene showing large metal pipes carrying wastewater from the reservoir and dumping foaming liquid into nearby trees.

The journalists claimed the factory deliberately funnelled the wastewater into wildlife areas and hastily removed their pipes when investigators and emergency services arrived on the scene.

Heavy machinery used to clear the pipes crushed a car delivering officials to the scene, Novaya Gazeta reported.



Interfax said no one was injured in the incident which was also being probed
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 03:23:17 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #503 on: June 29, 2020, 08:00:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1277171510764068864

Quote
How much faster is the #Arctic warming than the global average? Locally up to 5 times faster, but in general 3-4 times.


ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #504 on: June 29, 2020, 08:01:19 PM »
Quote
If using only the past 30-year trends, the warming rate is higher and reaches locally up to 7 times! (Note the different color scale).


ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #505 on: June 29, 2020, 08:02:40 PM »
Quote
Was interested in different datasets when I saw @ClimateofGavin  tweet - seems to be similar or even enhanced (ratio up to 5.75) in Cowtan and Way using their Kriging (preliminary plot, apologies for projection :))


ArcticMelt2

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #506 on: June 29, 2020, 08:13:44 PM »
The most significant warming is really in the area Vavilov Ice Cap

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-unprecedented-ice-loss-russian-cap.html

Quote
The Vavilov Ice Cap thinned by a total of a few meters, advanced about 2 km, and lost about 1.2 km3 in total volume into the ocean in the 30 years before the speedup. In the one year between 2015 and 2016, the ice advanced about 4 kilometers and thinned by about 100 meters (~0.3 m per day). The ice cap lost about 4.5 km3 of ice, enough to cover Manhattan with about 250 feet of water, or the entire state of Washington with an inch. And it's unlikely the ice cap will ever be able to recover ice mass in today's warming climate, the paper states.




vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #507 on: July 01, 2020, 03:10:27 AM »
Beavers Gnawing Away at the Arctic Permafrost
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-beavers-gnawing-arctic-permafrost.html

Alaska's beavers are profiting from climate change, and spreading rapidly. In just a few years' time, they have not only expanded into many tundra regions where they'd never been seen before; they're also building more and more dams in their new homes, creating a host of new water bodies. This could accelerate the thawing of the permafrost soils, and therefore intensify climate change, as an International American-German research team reports in the journal Environmental Research Letters.


The upper two images are photos taken within the study area in 2016 showing the tundra region setting. The bottom two images are taken from similar tundra across Hotham Inlet in 2015 (lower left) and 2011 (lower right) showing beaver dams in a drained lake basin outlet and along a beaded stream course, respectively.

... Back in 2018, Ingmar Nitze and Guido Grosse from the AWI, together with colleagues from the U.S., determined that the beavers living in an 18,000-square-kilometer section of northwest Alaska had created 56 new lakes in just five years. For their new study, the team from the AWI, the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, and the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis have now taken a closer look at this trend. Using detailed satellite data and extended time series, the experts tracked the beavers' activities in two other regions in Alaska—and were surprised by what they found.

"Of course, we knew that the beavers there had spread substantially over the last few decades," says Nitze. This is partly due to climate change; thanks to rising temperatures, now more and more habitats offer the shrubs that the animals need for food and building material. Furthermore, the lakes, which used to freeze solid, now offer beaver-friendlier conditions, thanks to their thinner seasonal winter ice cover. Lastly, the rodents aren't hunted as intensively as in the past. As a result, it's a good time to be a beaver in the Arctic.

"But we never would have dreamed they would seize the opportunity so intensively," says Nitze. The high-resolution satellite images of the roughly 100-square-kilometer study area near the town of Kotzebue reveal the scale of the animals' activities there. From just two dams in 2002, the number had risen to 98 by 2019—a 5,000-percent increase, with more than 5 new dams being constructed per year. And the larger area surveyed, which covers the entire northern Baldwin Peninsula, also experienced a beaver dam boom. According to Nitze, "We're seeing exponential growth there. The number of these structures doubles roughly every four years."

This has already affected the water balance. Apparently, the rodents intentionally do their work in those parts of the landscape that they can most easily flood. To do so, sometimes they dam up small streams, and sometimes the outlets of existing lakes, which expand as a result. "But they especially prefer drained lake basins," Benjamin Jones, lead author of the study, and Nitze report. In many cases, the bottoms of these former lakes are prime locations for beaver activity. "The animals have intuitively found that damming the outlet drainage channels at the sites of former lakes is an efficient way to create habitat. So a new lake is formed which degrades ice-rich permafrost in the basin, adding to the effect of increasing the depth of the engineered waterbody," added Jones. These actions have their consequences: in the course of the 17-year timeframe studied, the overall water area in the Kotzebue region grew by 8.3 percent. And roughly two-thirds of that growth was due to the beavers.

The researchers suspect that there have been similar construction booms in other regions of the Arctic; accordingly, they now want to expand their 'beaver manhunt' across the Arctic. "The growth in Canada, for example, is most likely even more extreme," says Nitze. And each additional lake thaws the permafrost below it and on its banks. Granted, the frozen soil could theoretically bounce back after a few years, when the beaver dams break; but whether or not the conditions will be sufficiently cold for that to happen is anyone's guess.


Mapping beaver dams in high-resolution satellite imagery available for the northern Baldwin Peninsula, Alaska. The location of individual dams indicated with red arrow and the flow direction with a light blue arrow. (a) A series of four dams at the outlet of a lake, (b) a ~60 m long dam built in a drained lake basin, (c) a series of dams at the outlet of a lake near a confluence with a beaded stream, (d) a series of dams in a channel running through the middle of a drained lake basin, (e) five dams progressing down the outlet channel of a thermokarst lake, and (f) a series of dams in a beaded stream gulch. Examples shown here taken from 2019 images; note differences in scale across image frames. All dams were constructed after 2002.

Benjamin M. Jones et al, Increase in beaver dams controls surface water and thermokarst dynamics in an Arctic tundra region, Baldwin Peninsula, northwestern Alaska, Environmental Research Letters (2020).
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab80f1
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #508 on: July 05, 2020, 10:38:41 PM »
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/
« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 10:46:07 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Frivolousz21

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Re: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #509 on: July 06, 2020, 12:11:25 AM »
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/


Is there any other information out there about the AMSR3 instrument?

Those high GHZ channels are going to be super high res like 1-2km or better.


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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #510 on: July 08, 2020, 12:01:29 AM »
Climate Change May Cause Extreme Waves in Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-climate-extreme-arctic.html

New research projects the annual maximum wave height will get up to two to three times higher than it is now along coastlines in areas of the Arctic such as along the Beaufort Sea. The new study in AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans suggests waves could get up to 2 meters (6.6 feet) higher than current wave heights by the end of the century.

In addition, extreme wave events that used to occur once every 20 years might increase to occur once every two to five years on average, according to the study. In other words, the frequency of such extreme coastal flooding might increase by a factor of 4 to 10 by the end of this century.

"It increases the risk of flooding and erosion. It increases drastically almost everywhere," said Mercè Casas-Prat, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Climate Research Division and the lead author of the new study. "This can have a direct impact to the communities that live close to the shoreline."

... Among the hardest-hit areas was in the Greenland Sea, which lies between Greenland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. The study found maximum annual wave heights there could increase by as much as 6 meters (19.7 feet).

... The researchers' predictions also showed that by the end of the century, the timing of the highest waves may also change.

"At the end of the century, the maximum will on average come later in the year and also be more extreme," Casas-Prat said.

... In another recent study published in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters, Casas-Prat and Wang examined the contribution of sea ice retreat on the projected increases in extreme wave heights in the Arctic. They found that surface winds alone cannot explain the changes in the regional maximum wave heights.

"Sea ice retreat plays an important role, not just by increasing the distance over which wind can blow and generate waves but also by increasing the chance of strong winds to occur over widening ice-free waters," Casas-Prat said.

Increased waves could also increase the speed of ice breakup. The loss of ice due to waves could affect animals like polar bears which hunt seals on polar ice as well as a number of other creatures that rely on ice. It could also affect shipping routes in the future.

Mercé Casas‐Prat et al, Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential implications for coastal inundation and erosion, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745

Mercè Casas‐Prat et al. Sea‐ice retreat contributes to projected increases in extreme Arctic ocean surface waves, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088100
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 12:25:53 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #511 on: July 08, 2020, 08:40:37 PM »
A new polar bear denning study is a mixed bag for Alaska’s oil industry

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/a-new-polar-bear-denning-study-is-a-mixed-bag-for-the-oil-industry/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #512 on: July 10, 2020, 03:08:20 PM »
A ‘regime shift’ is happening in the Arctic Ocean, Stanford scientists say

Stanford scientists find the growth of phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean has increased 57 percent over just two decades, enhancing its ability to soak up carbon dioxide. While once linked to melting sea ice, the increase is now propelled by rising concentrations of tiny algae.


Scientists at Stanford University have discovered a surprising shift in the Arctic Ocean. Exploding blooms of phytoplankton, the tiny algae at the base of a food web topped by whales and polar bears, have drastically altered the Arctic’s ability to transform atmospheric carbon into living matter. Over the past decade, the surge has replaced sea ice loss as the biggest driver of changes in uptake of carbon dioxide by phytoplankton.

...

Arrigo and colleagues found that NPP in the Arctic increased 57 percent between 1998 and 2018. That’s an unprecedented jump in productivity for an entire ocean basin. More surprising is the discovery that while NPP increases were initially linked to retreating sea ice, productivity continued to climb even after melting slowed down around 2009. “The increase in NPP over the past decade is due almost exclusively to a recent increase in phytoplankton biomass,” Arrigo said.

Put another way, these microscopic algae were once metabolizing more carbon across the Arctic simply because they were gaining more open water over longer growing seasons, thanks to climate-driven changes in ice cover. Now, they are growing more concentrated, like a thickening algae soup.

“In a given volume of water, more phytoplankton were able to grow each year,” said lead study author Kate Lewis, who worked on the research as a PhD student in Stanford’s Department of Earth System Science. “This is the first time this has been reported in the Arctic Ocean.”

...

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/07/09/regime-shift-happening-arctic-ocean/

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #513 on: July 13, 2020, 11:02:20 AM »
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundra
Quote
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

KenB

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #514 on: July 13, 2020, 02:02:04 PM »
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundra
Quote
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra

Apparently another storage tank whose permafrost "foundation" gave way.  One wonders how many such there are.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Freegrass

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #515 on: July 14, 2020, 12:43:52 AM »
Unu Mondo is a 4 months sailing expedition into the Arctic aimed to gather scientific data and testimonies from local communities to better anticipate climate change and promote concrete actions.

Leaving from Saint-Malo, France it will reach Greenland (2020) then Alaska through the famous Northwest Passage (2021), stopping on the road in the villages of the West coast of Greenland and will culminate in a documentary.

Unu Mondo team is composed of 2 skippers, a handful of scientists and a pinch of audiovisual professionals.

Departure on June 29, 2020
https://www.unumondo.org/
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blumenkraft

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“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

KenB

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #517 on: July 16, 2020, 10:48:15 PM »
Something new *above* the arctic:

ESA is changing the orbit of its CryoSat-2 satellite to periodically align with NASA's ICESat-2. This will provide radar and lidar measurements of the same ice, at nearly the same time. The campaign, dubbed #CRYO2ICE, will be taking place between 16 and 31 July and is the first of its kind.

The new data resulting from the campaign will allow scientists to measure snow depth from space on both sea and land, improving the accuracy of sea ice thickness measurements and ice-sheet elevation time series. The measurements will also help map snow over the poles and advance our understanding of currents in polar oceans, with further applications expected in the study of inland waters and the atmosphere.

https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/cryosat/cryo2ice
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

ajouis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #518 on: July 18, 2020, 04:24:13 PM »
Not that new but very informative on both the high pressure/low pressure and anticyclonic/waa debates on what is more conducive to melt (hint probably the formers is what the study says)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022608#jgrd52033-fig-0006

High melt months are linked to higher pressure, increased sea of Okhotsk cloud cover in the later part of the melt season, very weakly with increased surface temperatures who trend towards 0, less clouds overall but an increase at the ice edge in august, reduced precipitations overall but higher in the sea of Okhotsk, less arctic cyclones except northern Alaska and northeastern Siberia, also a southward jet shift in the N. Atlantic and increased sea ice export.
I really urge you to read it, it’s very informative. Obviously correlation isn’t causation. It also has various other snippets of information, notably on the relationships that exist with the weather patterns of the rest of the northern hemisphere.
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

uniquorn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #519 on: July 20, 2020, 09:57:40 PM »
New bathy maps in netcdf and geotiff format
https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/arctic_ocean/
very large files

KenB

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #520 on: July 22, 2020, 03:50:28 PM »
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

ajouis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #521 on: July 23, 2020, 10:42:27 AM »
the formation of the sea ice ridges, they require freezing (-1.8 ) air temperatures to form.
https://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C05/E6-178-66.pdf

The initial phase starts during ridge formation and is characterized by the formation of
freeze-bonds. Three different heat fluxes are important: a) the surface flux ( qsur ), into the cold surrounding air, b) the oceanic flux ( qocean ), from the ocean beneath and c) the
internal fluxes ( qre ), in between the cold pieces of ice and the warm water pockets
inside the keel (Figure 3). The surface flux freezes the water pockets from the top and downwards and creates a cold front that defines the consolidated layer. The initial cold content of the ice is partly spent in making freeze bonds and partly consumed by the oceanic flux. The fraction that goes into making freeze bonds depends on the initial ice temperatures, the block thicknesses, the ridge size and the oceanic conditions. When all the ice and water below the cold front is isothermal that is at the freezing point of the surrounding water the initial phase ends.
The rubble beneath the consolidated layer is thermally insulated by the freezing front on top of it, and feels only the water below. Since the conditions are isothermal there is no longer any cold reserve available and the rubble decays continuously. The rubble transforms from individual ice blocks with freeze bonds to an ice skeleton with a hierarchy of pores, from a few centimeters and up to meter(s).
In the decay phase the ridge is heated both from the top and from the bottom. The ridge now either melts completely, or it transforms into a second-year ridge during the summer. Several processes take place. On the surface the warm air and the sun radiation melts the snow and the surface ice and creates relatively fresh melt-water. Its freezing point is above the temperature in the rubble so it will freeze as it drizzles down in the keel. This freezing process release heat and increases the temperatures in the rubble. In this way the decay phase includes both melting and freezing. Freezing can take place as long as there is cold capacity (ice temperature less than the freezing point of the melt water) in the keel. However, another mechanism can contribute to further consolidation. If the pore water salinity is changed cyclically, either by periodic surface melting or by tidally driven river runoff the ridge could actually expel heat into the surrounding water
and contribute to further freezing (consolidation). This mechanism is only shown in laboratory investigations and in simulations. Finally the ridge keel could collapse and in this way decrease the porosity and increase the degree of consolidation. By the end of the melt season the ridge has become a second-year ridge.
After a thousand steps on the ice, it cracked.
The Man looked down at the infinite blue of the sea.
On the horizon, standing still, the polar bear had just scented his next meal.

 Less than 3000 cubic kilometers this Piomas minimum.

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #522 on: July 23, 2020, 11:29:44 AM »
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians.

Yesterday i saw there was a whole cluster of earthquakes. I was about to ask what's it all about but forgot to post it.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #523 on: July 28, 2020, 06:05:37 PM »
It's not stopping. For a week or so there are lots of earthquakes.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #524 on: August 01, 2020, 05:35:00 AM »
Article in Scientific American about the current state of affairs and some tentative predictions:

Quote
On the other hand, strong storms can substantially break up the ice, potentially leaving it more vulnerable to higher temperatures and faster melting later in the season. And they can churn up the ocean, as well, allowing warmer waters to rise to the surface.

Quote
It’s all part of the vicious cycle of Arctic climate change. Within just a few decades, scientists predict the Arctic could be seeing totally ice-free summers.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #525 on: August 01, 2020, 05:33:09 PM »
The biggest ever science expedition to the Arctic encountered extremely thin sea ice, which could threaten future efforts to study the region.

A team on board the Polarstern icebreaker ship began drifting last September until their vessel became locked in an ice floe. In the area off the Russian continental shelf where they started their journey, the ice was exceptionally thin compared with what models had predicted for the past two decades. The ice was around 50 centimetres thick, while it had been around 150 to 160 centimetres thick in three years of …

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248111-arctic-explorers-find-unusually-thin-ice-as-a-result-of-climate-change/#ixzz6TsgwliNk

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #526 on: August 01, 2020, 07:31:55 PM »
Or visit the MOSAiC thread in this very forum.
:)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

glennbuck

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #527 on: August 01, 2020, 09:32:38 PM »
Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations.

This work evaluates the statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) anomaly – here defined as the detrended and deseasonalized SIV – on the interannual timescale. To do so, we made use of six datasets, from three different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, with two different horizontal grid resolutions each. Based on these datasets, we have developed a statistical empirical model which in turn was used to test the performance of different predictor variables, as well as to identify optimal locations from where the SIV anomaly could be better reconstructed and/or predicted. We tested the hypothesis that an ideal sampling strategy characterized by only a few optimal sampling locations can provide in situ data for statistically reproducing and/or predicting the SIV interannual variability. The results showed that, apart from the SIV itself, the sea ice thickness is the best predictor variable, although total sea ice area, sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature, and sea ice drift can also contribute to improving the prediction skill.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2409/2020/

Click to run, July 10th to 8th of August, sea ice thickness.

« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 10:42:42 AM by glennbuck »

Glen Koehler

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #528 on: August 01, 2020, 09:45:05 PM »
    Interesting graphic from article posted above showing which sampling locations provided best reduction in variability for predicting Arctic sea ice volume.  They conclude that predictive skill increases with number of sample locations up to six, but predictive skill improvement by adding locations 7-10 was minimal.

Figure 8.  Optimal observing framework, as suggested by the ensemble of model outputs, for sampling predictor variables in order to statistically reconstruct and/or predict the pan-Arctic SIV anomaly. The numbers indicate the first up to the 10th best observing locations in respective order. The hatched area around each location (same colour code) represents their respective region of influence. The selection of points respects the hierarchy of the regions of influence in a way that the second point can not be placed within the region of influence no. 1 (shades of red), the third point can not be placed within the regions of influence nos. 1 and 2 (shades of red and purple), and so on.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 09:54:06 PM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #529 on: August 04, 2020, 05:50:25 PM »
M 4.6 Earthquake north of Severnaya Zemlya

Time: 2020-08-04 14:52:15 (UTC)
Location: 83.441°N 115.387°E
Depth: 10.0 km
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #530 on: August 05, 2020, 02:13:02 PM »
Earthquake north of Svalbard.

M 5.3 - north of Svalbard

2020-08-05 08:48:06 (UTC)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000b9kr/executive