What's new in the Arctic ?

[Glen Koehler]

The end-game begins through the Nares Strait?

"Ice arches holding Arctic's 'last ice area' in place are at risk, researcher says"
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-ice-arches-arctic-area.html

Excerpts  -------
But recent research at the University of Toronto Mississauga suggests the last ice area may be in more peril than previously thought. In a recent paper published in the journal Nature Communications, Professor Kent Moore and his co-authors describe how this multi-year ice is at risk not just of melting in place, but of floating southward into warmer regions. This, in turn, would create an "ice deficit" and hasten the disappearance of the last ice area.

"The last ice area is losing ice mass at twice the rate of the entire Arctic," Moore says. "We realized this area may not be as stable as people think."

His most recent analysis of satellite data says the problem may be getting even worse. The arches along Nares Strait that historically have held the Last ice Area in place have become less stable, according to the study.

"The ice arches that usually develop at the northern and southern ends of Nares Strait play an important role in modulating the export of Arctic Ocean multi-year sea ice," he and his authors write.

Ice arches only form for part of the year. When they break up in the spring, ice moves more freely down the Nares Strait. And that breakup is happening sooner than in the past.

"Every year, the reduction in duration is about one week," (emphasis added by GK) Moore says. "They used to persist for about 200 days and now they're persisting for about 150 days. There's quite a remarkable reduction.

"We think that it's related to the fact the ice is just thinner and thinner ice is less stable."

More information: G. W. K. Moore et al. Anomalous collapses of Nares Strait ice arches leads to enhanced export of Arctic sea ice, Nature Communications (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20314-w

[Glen Koehler]

From:
Slater, T., Lawrence, I. R., Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Tepes, P., Gilbert, L., and Nienow, P.: Review article: Earth's ice imbalance, The Cryosphere, 15, 233–246, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-233-2021, 2021.
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/233/2021/tc-15-233-2021.pdf 

     "While the progressive retreat of Arctic sea ice has been driven by radiative forcing, this has been mediated in part by the increasing presence of open water (Perovich and Richter-Menge, 2009), and broader changes in oceanic conditions are expected to play an increasingly important role (Carmack et al., 2016)"

     But the at the end of the article they say this:  "Attributing Arctic sea ice decline and ice shelf calving to increased radiative forcing,..."
      I understand that they do this as a shortcut in a calculation of what portion of global glacier/ice sheet/sea ice loss is due to atmospheric vs. ocean warming.  But that seems like a pretty crude shortcut.  My understanding is that ocean warming is already a contributing factor to ASI loss, as they alluded to in the statement about open water "mediating" progressive ASI loss.

     RE: the table shown below comparing Gt/year ice loss between periods.  I find it odd that the amount of ASI loss in 2000s is higher than for the 2010s.  Even multiplying the 2010s number by 1.1 since it only accounts for 2010-2018 (missing 2019) gives a much smaller value of ca. 103 vs. the 384 for the 2000s.

    Wipneus' PIOMAS volume graph for Sept. mininum volume shows change from 2000 to 2009 of ca. 11 to 7 M km3, and ca. 7 to 4 for 2010 to 2019.   That is not directly relevant since the study used the winter (October -April) average ASI volume trend not the summer minimum trend for their ice loss measure.  But I don't see how the losses in 2000-2009 could so much exceed the 2010-2018 value.  And even the 1980s and 1990s rates of winter ASI loss are almost 1.5 and almost 3X higher than the extrapolated Gt/year for 2010s. 

    Even though it is measuring a different month of the year, I do not see why the Wipneus Sept minimum chart would show a consistent trend in losses while this study apparently finds a much lower rate of ASI loss in the 2010s. 

    Finally, they note that the energy used to melt ice only accounts for 3.2% of the net Earth energy imbalance.  While some has gone into the atmosphere and plants, 93% (other source) goes into ocean warming.  That hides the "damage" from us in the sense that heat buried in the ocean is not immediately apparent.  But the bad news is that the ocean has huge thermal inertia.
Once energy is stored there, it stays there for a very long time, essentially forever from a human perspective, and will continue to exert changes on ocean currents, atmosphere (and the weather), marine life, and the remaining ice.

[kassy]

Well the winter ice was thicker over all so there was more to melt out then.

[Glen Koehler]

   Yes, but there was also a lot more summer ice in the earlier decades, yet the PIOMAS volume (e.g. Wipneus chart) shows a steady rate of decline.  So why would winter (Oct-Apr) losses show a 2/3 reduction in loss rate for the most recent decade compared to prior decades, while September minimum losses continued to follow a consistent trend?

[kassy]

They are not so much winter losses as snapshots of the overall loss only taken in winter.

For more details we should take it to the When thread.

[vox_mundi]

Paleo Arctic Ocean Was Covered By Shelf Ice and Filled With Freshwater
https://phys.org/news/2021-02-arctic-ocean-shelf-ice-freshwater.html



The Arctic Ocean was covered by up to 900-meter-thick shelf ice and was filled entirely with freshwater at least twice in the last 150,000 years. This surprising finding, reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature, is the result of long-term research by scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute and the MARUM. With a detailed analysis of the composition of marine deposits, the scientists could demonstrate that the Arctic Ocean as well as the Nordic Seas did not contain sea-salt in at least two glacial periods. Instead, these oceans were filled with large amounts of freshwater under a thick ice shield. This water could then be released into the North Atlantic in very short periods of time. Such sudden freshwater inputs could explain rapid climate oscillations for which no satisfying explanation had been previously found.

According to their study, the floating parts of the northern ice sheets covered large parts of the Arctic Ocean in the past 150,000 years. Once about 70,000-60,000 years ago and also about 150,000-130,000 years ago. In both periods, freshwater accumulated under the ice, creating a completely fresh water Arctic Ocean for thousands of years.

Their finding is based on geological analyses of ten sediment cores from different parts of the Arctic Ocean, Fram Strait and the Nordic Seas. The stacked deposits mirror the climate history of the past glacials. When investigating and comparing the sediment records, the geoscientists found that an important indicator was missing, always in the same two intervals. "In saline sea water, the decay of naturally occurring uranium always results in the production of the isotope thorium-230. This substance accumulates at the sea floor, where it remains detectable for a very long time due to its half-life of 75,000 years," Walter Geibert explains.

Thorium is absent in the sediments, so saline water must have been absent



How can a large ocean basin, connected by several straits with the North Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean, turn entirely fresh? "Such a scenario is perceivable if we realize that in glacial periods, global sea levels were up to 130 m lower than today, and ice masses in the Arctic may have restricted ocean circulation even further," states co-author Professor Ruediger Stein, geologist at the AWI and the MARUM.

Shallow connections like Bering Strait or the sounds of the Canadian Archipelago were above sea level at the time, cutting off the connection with the Pacific Ocean entirely. In the Nordic Seas, large icebergs or ice sheets extending onto the sea floor restricted the exchange of water masses. The flow of glaciers, ice melt in summer, and rivers draining into the Arctic Ocean kept delivering large amounts of fresh water to the system, at least 1200 cubic kilometers per year. A part of this amount would have been forced via the Nordic Seas through the sparse narrow deeper connections in the Greenland-Scotland Ridge into the North Atlantic, hindering saline water from penetrating further north. This resulted in the freshening of the Arctic Ocean.

... Freshwater release from the Arctic Ocean might also serve as an explanation for some abrupt climate change events during the last glacial period. During such events, temperatures in Greenland could rise by 8-10 degree centigrade within a few years, only returning to the original cold glacial temperatures over the course of hundreds or thousands of years. "We see an example here of a past Arctic climate tipping point of the Earth system.

Glacial episodes of a freshwater Arctic Ocean covered by a thick ice shelf, Nature (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03186-y

[glennbuck]

It is the first time that a commercial vessel sails across the Northern Sea Route in February. The voyage of the Christophe de Margerie from Jiangsu in China to the remote Arctic terminal of Sabetta was made in the Arctic winter dark and through thick sea-ice.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2021/02/arctic-shipper-shows-historical-icebreaking-voyage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlDvo4mr5I0&feature=emb_logo

[kassy]

thick sea-ice.

Propaganda...that is not thick sea ice. 

[gerontocrat]

thick sea-ice.

Propaganda...that is not thick sea ice. 

Not thick sea ice in February. A hint for the melting season?

[kassy]

Possibly.

Some quotes from:
A changing Bering Sea is influencing weather far to the south, scientists say

...

Hundreds of miles inland from the Bering Sea, at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, physical oceanographer Seth Danielson is monitoring the moving pieces of the climate ecosystem. One standout factor, he said, is the loss of ice in the Bering Sea.

“The waters start warmer in the fall, so we are making less ice. The air temperature is warmer so we are having less ice in the winter,” he said. “At some point, you have to assume that what you think is normal has changed.”

...

The Bering-Chukchi connection
The Bering Sea holds a pivotal role, Danielson said, because of its location at a critical point on the massive marine conveyor belt that regulates the world’s oceans. The Pacific Ocean rests at a higher elevation than the Atlantic Ocean, so water from the Pacific runs downhill through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sea, he said.

That means the heat that the Bering collects from the south pours through that narrow strait separating Alaska from Russia. That heat is building as increasingly open and dark-surfaced Bering Sea absorbs more of the sun’s rays rather than reflecting the energy with white ice.

...

Danielson and his colleagues in the UAF oceanography group and other institutions have been able to track the movement of heat from the Bering into the Chukchi with instruments on fixed moorings at strategic spots in the marine system.

That heat flow accelerated in just a few years. In the 2014-to-2018 period, the amount of heat going through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi was about 43 percent higher than the amount prior to 2014, according to the most recent calculations, which Danielson presented at this year’s Alaska Marine Science Symposium, held online in January.

Effects intensify as heat moves north.

Though the Bering Sea is undergoing a well-recognized transformation, with record-low and near-record-low winter ice amounts in recent years, the Chukchi Sea is in some ways changing more dramatically, he said.

Danielson and his colleagues quantified temperature differences in a study published in May of 2020. In the Bering Strait, temperatures increased at a rate of 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade from 1991 to 2015, mooring measurements showed. But in the Chukchi, temperatures increased by 0.43 degrees per decade since 1990, the measurements showed.

Every 1 degree Celsius of warming in the Chukchi delays freeze-up by about three weeks, Danielson said. Such delays are documented in the satellite record, which shows that type of ice extent that used to be normal in October is appearing much later — not until December in recent years.

That delay in freezing means the ocean and atmosphere absorb more heat over longer periods, Danielson said. With the extra heat now cast off by the Chukchi in the fall, “You would heat the whole Arctic by something like a degree (Celsius),” he said, referring to not just all the seas but also all the land above the Arctic Circle. “The Chukchi is a clear center of action for delivering heat to the Arctic,” he said.

....

And there is more about the teleconnections but i found the Arctic stuff more interesting.

https://www.arctictoday.com/a-changing-bering-sea-is-influencing-weather-far-to-the-south-scientists-say/

[glennbuck]

thick sea-ice.

Propaganda...that is not thick sea ice. 

Ye, the music it is like pioneering exploration, where i felt sadness, shock and alarmed!

[binntho]

thick sea-ice.

Propaganda...that is not thick sea ice. 

The video is perhaps not entirely reliable, but the article is interesting. And towards the end of the video, the ice could easily be well over 1 meter thick.

The ice breaker is "50 Let Pobedy" which is designed to break through up to 5 m thick ice.

This expedition says nothing about the state of the ice, but quite a lot about the advances of Russian technologies for dealing with the extremes of hte Arctic.

[Glen Koehler]

      Cloud-Making Aerosol Could Devastate Polar Sea Ice
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-making-aerosol-could-devastate-polar-sea-ice-20210223/
1st paragraph:
     "To climate scientists, clouds are powerful, pillowy paradoxes: They can simultaneously reflect away the sun’s heat but also trap it in the atmosphere; they can be products of warming temperatures but can also amplify their effects. Now, while studying the atmospheric chemistry that produces clouds, researchers have uncovered an unexpectedly potent natural process that seeds their growth. They further suggest that, as the Earth continues to warm from rising levels of greenhouse gases, this process could be a major new mechanism for accelerating the loss of sea ice at the poles — one that no global climate model currently incorporates."   

[kassy]

The CERN scientists found that aerosol particles made of iodic acid could form very quickly — even more quickly than the rates of sulfuric acid mixed with ammonia. In fact, the iodine was such an effective nucleator that the researchers had a difficult time scrubbing it away from the sides of the chamber for subsequent experiments, which required a completely clean environment.

The findings are important for understanding the fundamental chemistry in the atmosphere that underlies cloud processes, Kirkby said, but also as a warning sign: Global iodine emissions have tripled over the past 70 years, and scientists predict that emissions will continue to accelerate as sea ice melts and surface ozone increases. Based on these results, an increase of molecular iodine could lead to more particles for water vapor to condense onto and spiral into a positive feedback loop. “The more the ice melts, the more sea surface is exposed, the more iodine is emitted, the more particles are made, the more clouds form, the faster it all goes,” Kirkby said.

Alpine ice evidence of a three-fold increase in atmospheric iodine deposition since 1950 in Europe due to increasing oceanic emissions

Significance
Our measurements show a tripling of iodine in Alpine ice between 1950 and 1990. A 20th century increase in global iodine emissions has been previously found from model simulations, based on laboratory studies, but, up to now, long-term iodine records exist only in polar regions. These polar records are influenced by sea ice processes, which may obscure global iodine trends. Our results suggest that the increased iodine deposition over the Alps is consistent with increased oceanic iodine emissions coupled with a change in the iodine speciation, both driven by increasing anthropogenic NOx emissions. In turn, the recent increase of iodine emissions implies that iodine-related ozone loss in the troposphere is more active now than in the preindustrial period.

Abstract
Iodine is an important nutrient and a significant sink of tropospheric ozone, a climate-forcing gas and air pollutant. Ozone interacts with seawater iodide, leading to volatile inorganic iodine release that likely represents the largest source of atmospheric iodine. Increasing ozone concentrations since the preindustrial period imply that iodine chemistry and its associated ozone destruction is now substantially more active. However, the lack of historical observations of ozone and iodine means that such estimates rely primarily on model calculations. Here we use seasonally resolved records from an Alpine ice core to investigate 20th century changes in atmospheric iodine. After carefully considering possible postdepositional changes in the ice core record, we conclude that iodine deposition over the Alps increased by at least a factor of 3 from 1950 to the 1990s in the summer months, with smaller increases during the winter months. We reproduce these general trends using a chemical transport model and show that they are due to increased oceanic iodine emissions, coupled to a change in iodine speciation over Europe from enhanced nitrogen oxide emissions. The model underestimates the increase in iodine deposition by a factor of 2, however, which may be due to an underestimate in the 20th century ozone increase. Our results suggest that iodine’s impact on the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere accelerated over the 20th century and show a coupling between anthropogenic pollution and the availability of iodine as an essential nutrient to the terrestrial biosphere.

https://www.pnas.org/content/115/48/12136

Bit more on the aerosols.

[kassy]

New treaty to ban fishing in fishless Central Arctic

...

Pending final ratification, an international accord that also bans fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean will likely take effect later this year. A decade since negotiations began, the treaty – the Central Arctic Ocean Fishing Agreement – may give scientists breathing space to study the rapidly-evolving conditions in the world’s least-trafficked ocean. Fisheries experts hope that if fishing is eventually permitted, it will be managed rationally and sustainably. A disastrous frenzy of unregulated fishing in the 1980s that ruined an adjacent productive fishery, in the Bering Sea, gave ammunition to the agreement’s supporters. The new treaty is a rare international action to “‘prevent the fire’ rather than to ‘extinguish the fire,'” in the words of a recent paper in Marine Policy.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/02/new-treaty-to-ban-fishing-in-fishless-central-arctic/

[Glen Koehler]

Unless there is some rebound (or an additional crash), we will change over to a melting season thread on March 1st.

     March 1st is the last day without sunrise at 83.50 North.  (According to Google Earth the northernmost point of land in the Arctic is in Greenland at 83.38 degrees). 
     Sunrise/Sunset at 10:42am / 1:14pm on March 2, with day length increasing by about 1 hour per day.  By April 3 the sun is above the horizon 24 hours a day until Sept. 9.

     Table of sunrise/sunset times at
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/solcalc/table.php?lat=83.5&lon=-70&year=2021

[vox_mundi]

Polar Space Hurricane Observed for the First Time
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-space-hurricane.html

The first observations of a space hurricane have been revealed in Earth's upper atmosphere, confirming their existence and shedding new light on the relationship between planets and space.

The unprecedented observations, made by satellites in August 2014, were only uncovered during retrospective analysis by scientists at the University of Reading, as part of a team led by Shandong University in China, that confirmed the hurricane and offered clues about its formation.

This analysis has now allowed a 3-D image to be created of the 1,000km-wide swirling mass of plasma several hundred kilometers above the North Pole, raining electrons instead of water, and in many ways resembling the hurricanes we are familiar with in the Earth's lower atmosphere.

Professor Mike Lockwood, space scientist at the University of Reading, said: "Until now, it was uncertain that space plasma hurricanes even existed, so to prove this with such a striking observation is incredible."

"Tropical storms are associated with huge amounts of energy, and these space hurricanes must be created by unusually large and rapid transfer of solar wind energy and charged particles into the Earth's upper atmosphere.

The fact the hurricane occurred during a period of low geomagnetic activity suggests they could be more relatively common within our solar system and beyond. This highlights the importance of improved monitoring of space weather, which can disrupt GPS systems.


Schematic of the space hurricane and its formation mechanism during an extremely quiet geomagnetic condition with northward IMF and a dominant By component.

Qing-He Zhang et al. A space hurricane over the Earth's polar ionosphere, Nature Communications (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21459-y

-----------------------------------------

... This hurricane shows strong circular horizontal plasma flow with shears, a nearly zero-flow center, and a coincident cyclone-shaped aurora caused by strong electron precipitation associated with intense upward magnetic field-aligned currents. Near the center, precipitating electrons were substantially accelerated to ~10 keV. The hurricane imparted large energy and momentum deposition into the ionosphere despite otherwise extremely quiet conditions.

The observations and simulations reveal that the space hurricane is generated by steady high-latitude lobe magnetic reconnection and current continuity during a several hour period of northward interplanetary magnetic field and very low solar wind density and speed.

[Glen Koehler]

Record-high Arctic freshwater will flow through Canadian waters, affecting marine environment and Atlantic ocean currents
https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/02/24/record-high-arctic-freshwater-will-flow-through-canadian-waters-affecting-marine-environment-and-atlantic-ocean-currents/

"Freshwater is accumulating in the Arctic Ocean. The Beaufort Sea, which is the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has increased its freshwater content by 40% over the past two decades. How and where this water will flow into the Atlantic Ocean is important for local and global ocean conditions.

A study from the University of Washington, Los Alamos National Laboratory and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that this freshwater travels through the Canadian Archipelago to reach the Labrador Sea, rather than through the wider marine passageways that connect to seas in Northern Europe. The open-access study was published Feb. 23 in Nature Communications."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21470-3
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21470-3/figures/1

[Jim Hunt]

A BBC video from Defence Correspondent Jonathan Beale:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-56300515

The US has deployed long range bombers to Norway for the first time. Four B1 bombers will be operating out of Orland Air Base over the next few weeks.

It's being seen as a message to Moscow that the US is ready to defend its allies in the strategically contested Arctic region, which is rich in oil and gas.

[binntho]

So the AMO doesn't exist after all? So says the guy who named the beast:

Today, in a research article published in the same journal Science, my colleagues and I have provided what we consider to be the most definitive evidence yet that the AMO doesn’t actually exist.

[interstitial]

That may have been the soundbite but from my reading what he seemed to be saying was that the currents interact in a complex way that is not well described as a monolithic AMO current. AMO was a generalization that appeared to fit a limited data set but with more data it has just fallen apart. The complex interactions between temperature, salinity, topography, Newtonian physics and fluid dynamics are readily modeled but conditions are always changing.
I may be wrong but this seems to imply that currents are more like wind varying with conditions rather than as fixed as they were once perceived to be.

[binntho]

temperature, salinity, topography, Newtonian physics and fluid dynamics

Good thing there were no quantum entanglements! The AMO would then both exist and not exist until somebody looked ... or is that what is happening anyway?

[kassy]

Scientists have used the AMO for years to explain why there are cycles of increased hurricane activity. The warm phase of the AMO means increased activity. The cool phase means less activity. A complete cycle tends to last 50 to 70 years.

...

Using computer models, the team found no evidence of an internal cause for the oscillation. Instead, volcanic eruptions caused the AMO in the pre-industrial era, the researchers concluded.

Mann and his team have previously shown that in the modern era, human-driven climate change was the biggest cause of the AMO.

"Some hurricane scientists have claimed that the increase in Atlantic hurricanes in recent decades is due to the uptick of an internal AMO cycle," Mann said in a news release. "Our latest study appears to be the final nail in the coffin of that theory. What has in the past been attributed to an internal AMO oscillation is instead the result of external drivers, including human forcing during the industrial era and natural volcanic forcing during the pre-industrial era."

https://weather.com/news/news/2021-03-08-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-does-not-exist-michael-mann-says

So the data looked like some natural long scale pattern but the older parts were artifacts of volcanoes and the newer ones of our making. I think it says more about us then about currents.

[Jim Hunt]

According to TASS:

Three Russian nuclear-powered submarines simultaneously surfaced from under the ice at a distance of up to 300 meters from each other for the first time in history during Arctic drills, Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday...

A comprehensive Arctic expedition, Umka-2021, is underway in the area of the Franz Josef Land archipelago, the Alexandra Land Island and the adjacent waters with the participation of the Russian Geographical Society, the admiral reported...

The expedition involves over 600 servicemen and civil personnel and about 200 items of armament, military and special hardware. Currently, the average air temperature in the area is minus 25-30 degrees Celsius while the ice cover is 1.5 meters thick and the wind is 32 m/s.

https://tass.com/defense/1270875

See also:

[vox_mundi]

Russia Considers Extended Claim to the Arctic Seabed
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-considers-extended-claim-arctic-seabed

Two Russian vessels have collected new data in the Arctic Ocean between Canada, Greenland and the North Pole - far from Russia’s existing claim.

It happened between August and October last year. Through several days, Russia’s large nuclear icebreaker “50 Let Pobedy” (50 Years of Victory) plowed through the polar sea ice between the North Pole and the northernmost reaches of Greenland and Canada. The speed most likely is no more than 3-4 knots.

The icebreaker systematically clears open tracks in the ice in honor of the vessel trailing it, the “Akademik Fedorov”. The lesser, but ice-enforced vessel methodically sucks up data about the seabed with an advanced multibeam echosounder embedded in its hull.

... The two Russian vessels toiled forth and back across the Lomonosov Ridge as close as 60 nautical miles from Greenland’s exclusive economic zone. They operated far from the seabed further north that was covered by Russia’s submission to the CLCS in 2015.



Focus is on the Lomonosov Ridge, the impressive subsea mountain range that runs from Russia across the North Pole and onwards towards Greenland and Canada. The ridge pushes 3700 meter tall peaks upwards from the seabed which is otherwise flat as a pancake, and the nature of the connection between the ridge and the landmasses at either end will determine who has the rights to what the seabed may hide of oil, gas and minerals.

Consistent rumors about the goal of this ambitious Russian mission can now be verified: The two vessels were harvesting data about the seabed, because Russia is contemplating a revised, enlarged submission to the UN’s Commission on the Limit of the Continental Shelf (CLCS).

A such enlarged submission could win Russia the rights to the seabed from close to the North Pole and down all the way to the maritime borders of Canada and Greenland 200 nautical miles from shore.

... “It appears that they have done bathymetry, in other words mapping of the topography across the Lomonosov Ridge. Also, they have taken samples of the sediments. It is all about illustrating the character of the ridge: Does it belong to Greenland or does it belong to Russia? But we have not yet heard what came out of it,” Flemming Larsen, director of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland said.

Russia has received encouraging rumblings from the CLCS on its existing submission, and new details about the latest mission corroborate expectations of an enlargement.

... In the most far reaching scenario, where Russia manages to realize the full potential of an enlarged submission to the CLCS, Russia’s rights to the seabed would begin right outside Canada’s and Greenland’s exclusive economic zones 200 nautical miles from shore.

Russia would have exclusive rights to all resources on the seabed, but, importantly, not in the water column, on the surface, or in the airspace above. Also, Russia would command certain rights to regulate traffic in the area in order to protect its riches.

These are privileges and potential wealth to which Greenland and Canada have so far been the only contenders.

According to an educated estimate an extended Russian submission could potentially increase the overlap between Russia’s existing claim and that of Denmark and Greenland with some 200.000 square kilometers, adding to an overlap already at 600.000 square kilometers.

On top of this, an enlarged Russian submission would most likely increase Russia’s overlap also with the Canadian and possibly the US designs.

[Glen Koehler]

temperature, salinity, topography, Newtonian physics and fluid dynamics

Good thing there were no quantum entanglements! The AMO would then both exist and not exist until somebody looked ... or is that what is happening anyway?

     With the similarity in acronymis it is easy to have mental quantum entanglement between the recent Mann recantation of AMO mixed up with the AMOC.  Nobody is claiming that the AMOC does not exist (Though there was a recent article showing several different proxies that support the 2015 finding that the AMOC is weakening). 
   
     What Mann is retracting is the idea that there is a natural periodic climate system oscillation of Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures (AMO), parallel to the PDO.  Mann now says that what he had earlier defined as a climate-system-driven oscillation in the Atlantic was misinterpretation of variations caused by other forcings, and by reliance on too short of a historical record.  As a matter of data analysis and pattern finding, Tamino would have had interesting things to say about this.  Alas, his site is still out of action.  Tamino if you are reading this, please come back!
   
 

[Jim Hunt]

An interesting history of the Barneo ice camp:

https://explorersweb.com/2021/02/14/the-inside-story-of-barneo-the-floating-ice-camp-near-the-north-pole/

I believe that it will survive. Barneo is much more than just a business operation, more than a luxury floating hotel near the North Pole. It is a dream, like the North Pole itself...

For the increasing number of Asian tourists, the Khatanga route is by far the most convenient. A hotel is being built in Khatanga for the needs of these polar travelers. Khatanga does not rival Longyearbyen yet, but things can change quickly in this fast-changing world.

[vox_mundi]

Snow Chaos In Europe Caused By Melting Sea-Ice In Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-chaos-europe-sea-ice-arctic.html



... It is the loss of the Arctic sea-ice due to climate warming that has, somewhat paradoxically, been implicated with severe cold and snowy mid-latitude winters.

Alun Hubbard, from CAGE Center for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate at UiT The Arctic University of Norway, is the co-author of a study in Nature Geoscience examining this counter-intuitive climatic paradox: A 50% reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover has increased open-water and winter evaporation to fuel more extreme snowfall further south across Europe.

The study, led by Dr. Hanna Bailey at the University of Oulu, Finland, has more specifically found that the long-term decline of Arctic sea-ice since the late 1970s had a direct connection to one specific weather event: "Beast from the East"—the February snowfall that brought large parts of the European continent to a halt in 2018, causing £1bn a day in losses.

The study, led by Dr. Hanna Bailey at the University of Oulu, Finland, has more specifically found that the long-term decline of Arctic sea-ice since the late 1970s had a direct connection to one specific weather event: "Beast from the East"—the February snowfall that brought large parts of the European continent to a halt in 2018, causing £1bn a day in losses.

Researchers discovered that atmospheric vapor traveling south from the Arctic carried a unique geochemical fingerprint, revealing that its source was the warm, open-water surface of the Barents Sea, part of the Arctic Ocean between Norway, Russia, and Svalbard. They found that during the "Beast from the East," open-water conditions in the Barents Sea supplied up to 88% of the corresponding fresh snow that fell over Europe.

"What we're finding is that sea-ice is effectively a lid on the ocean. And with its long-term reduction across the Arctic, we're seeing increasing amounts of moisture enter the atmosphere during winter, which directly impacts our weather further south, causing extreme heavy snowfalls. It might seem counter-intuitive, but nature is complex and what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic." says Bailey.

When analyzing the long-term trends from 1979 onwards, researchers found that for every square meter of winter sea-ice lost from the Barents Sea, there was a corresponding 70 kg increase in the evaporation, moisture, and snow falling over Europe.

Their findings indicate that within the next 60 years, a predicted ice-free Barents Sea will likely become a significant source of increased winter precipitation—be it rain or snow—for Europe.

"This study illustrates that the abrupt changes being witnessed across the Arctic now, really are affecting the entire planet," says professor Hubbard.



Hannah Bailey et al, Arctic sea-ice loss fuels extreme European snowfall, Nature Geoscience (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00719-y
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350568647_Arctic_sea-ice_loss_fuels_extreme_European_snowfall

[FrostKing70]

Not sure if this is the best thread for this article, but found it interesting and alarming!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/thinning-arctic-ice-is-yet-another-ominous-climate-signal/2021/06/04/78b5401c-c56d-11eb-9a8d-f95d7724967c_story.html

"It turns out that warming can also scramble scientists’ efforts to measure how the planet is changing. Scientists’ previous estimates of Arctic sea ice relied on satellite measurements combined with estimates of how much snow accumulated on top of the ice. The more weight on top of the ice, the more ice sinks below the surface. But the snow estimates are two decades old, and global warming has changed the picture over that period. “Because sea ice has begun forming later and later in the year, the snow on top has less time to accumulate,” Mr. Mallett explained. “Our calculations account for this declining snow depth for the first time, and suggest the sea ice is thinning faster than we thought.”

The British team’s new calculations indicate that Arctic ice is thinning 70 to 100 percent faster — that is, at roughly double the rate — than previously thought. This finding is just another in a long string of warnings from scientists that many of global warming’s predicted effects may be occurring faster or in a more severe manner than anticipated."

Fixed URL link

[VeliAlbertKallio]

This kind of hell can break out in the Arctic when sea ice disappears and insolation or sub-permafrost rivers bust the ground containing methane pockets. In addition, melting of GIS can create new faults where water goes in and dissolve salt containing sediments into mud volcanoes; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57722236

[Tor Bejnar]

A great tool!

On a completely different note, just got a heads up from A-Team about the Sea Ice Tracking Utility

http://icemotion.labs.nsidc.org/SITU/

It animates as well

The Sea Ice Tracking System (SITU): A Community Tool for the Arctic and Antarctic
Tremblay, Bruno ; Pfirman, Stephanie ; Campbell, Garrett ; Newton, Robert ; Meier, Walt
EGU 2020

The Sea Ice Tracking System (SITU), formerly known as the IceTracker or Lagrangian Ice Tracking System, has been expanded to include new functions facilitating a wide range of new applications (http://icemotion.labs.nsidc.org/SITU/). Ice motion vectors are calculated from an optimal interpolation of satellite-derived, free-drift and buoy drift estimates (Polar Pathfinder dataset, version 4, https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0116;  International Arctic Buoy Program, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/;  NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/).

SITU now calculates forward and backward trajectories of Antarctic as well as Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2018 and incorporates basin-wide contextual information including timeseries of bathymetry, ice concentration, ice age, ice motion, air temperature, pressure, and wind speed, along the tracks. A new animated background option allows users to visualize these basin-wide changing environmental conditions as the tracking progresses.

SITU can be used by researchers, educators, local and indigenous communities, policy and planning professionals, and industries. For instance, geologists can use SITU to determine the provenance of sediment transported by sea-ice and deposited at an ocean core site; biologists can identify source region of biomass transported by sea-ice and seeding algal bloom in a given sea, or overlay bear and birds tracks over ice conditions or ice types animated in the background; coastal communities can backtrack ice to reveal age, origin and other factors that influence habitats of ice-associated species; people planning future expeditions can review recent ice conditions along potential cruise tracks, historians can compare current air temperatures, wind conditions, and ice concentration with past expeditions; students can learn about sea ice motion in the Arctic or compare recent ice drift (Tara or MOSAIC) with that of the epic expedition of Nansen. A new Eulerian option allows users to see changing conditions at one point over the full satellite record (1978 to present).

This Eulerian depiction reveals variability as well as trends, and can provide context for data retrieved from a mooring, sediment trap, or sediment core. Publically hosted on the NSIDC Labs webpage, data can be downloaded graphically or in spreadsheet format for deeper analysis.

So I played with the tool, and discovered some ice does go around in the Beaufort Sea.  This shows ice starting at the red dot on 1/1/2018 went on a 3 year journey around the Beaufort.  (Some ice in this sea gets exported out the Fram.)

[uniquorn]

yep, it happens sometimes. might be related to itp112, sep2019-jul2021
https://www2.whoi.edu/site/itp/data/active-systems/itp112/

[Tor Bejnar]

I should have added:  "Some ice melts out, too."  You can find "pixels of ice" that have long lives and pixels of ice that have short lives.  Some ESS ice melts in the ESS while some gets past Fram Strait.

[vox_mundi]

High Concentrations of 'Forever' Chemicals Being Released From Ice Melt into the Arctic Ocean
https://phys.org/news/2021-07-high-chemicals-ice-arctic-ocean.html

A Lancaster University study has found poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the surface seawater close to melting Arctic ice floes at concentrations of up to two times higher than levels observed in the North Sea, even though the region of the Barents Sea under investigation was thousands of kilometers from populated parts of Europe.

The research has shown these chemicals have traveled not by sea, but through the atmosphere, where they accumulate in Arctic sea ice. Because Arctic ice is melting more quickly than before, these harmful chemicals are efficiently released into surrounding seawater resulting in some very high concentrations.

PFAS comprise of a very large number of chemicals that have myriad uses, including processing aids in the manufacture of fluoropolymers like Teflon, stain and water repellents in food packaging, textiles and clothing, as well as use in firefighting foams.

One particular group of these chemicals—the perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) - are extremely stable and do not degrade in the environment but can bioaccumulate and are known to be toxic to humans and wildlife.

PFAAs can enter the food chain due to their mobility in the environment and protein-binding characteristics. The longer carbon chain compounds of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) are generally associated with liver damage in mammals, with developmental exposure to PFOA adversely affecting fetal growth in humans and other mammals alike.

... The PFAA present in the atmospheric component was much higher than the seawater component, confirming that long range transport and deposition from the atmosphere is the main source of these chemicals to the remote Arctic rather than 'recycling' of older stocks of these pollutants present in ocean waters.

Furthermore, the team's studies conducted in a sea ice facility at the University of East Anglia, found that the presence of brine (highly saline water) in young ice serves to enrich contaminants like PFAS in different layers within the sea ice. PFAS like other organic pollutants, generally reside in the brine rather than the solid ice matrix itself. As the ice ages the brine becomes more concentrated resulting in an enrichment of these pollutants into focused areas within the ice pack.

Brine channels on the underside of ice serve as unique habitats for organisms at the base of the marine foodweb, and, as a consequence, they will be exposed to high levels of PFAAs released with brine drainage and meltwater from the thawing ice pack.

Jack Garnett et al, Investigating the Uptake and Fate of Poly- and Perfluoroalkylated Substances (PFAS) in Sea Ice Using an Experimental Sea Ice Chamber, Environmental Science & Technology (2021).
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c01645

[pikaia]

"Scientists have discovered a new island off the coast of Greenland, which they say is the world’s northernmost point of land and was revealed by shifting pack ice."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/28/scientists-discover-worlds-northernmost-island-off-greenlands-coast

[vox_mundi]

Study: Growing Potential for Toxic Algal Blooms In the Alaskan Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-potential-toxic-algal-blooms-alaskan.html



Changes in the northern Alaskan Arctic ocean environment have reached a point at which a previously rare phenomenon—widespread blooms of toxic algae—could become more commonplace, potentially threatening a wide range of marine wildlife and the people who rely on local marine resources for food. That is the conclusion of a new study about harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the toxic algae Alexandrium catenella being published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

The study, led by scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in collaboration with colleagues from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other researchers in the U.S, Japan, and China, looked at samples from seafloor sediments and surface waters collected during 2018 and 2019 in the region extending from the Northern Bering Sea to the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas north of Alaska. The sediment samples allowed the researchers to count and map Alexandrium cysts—a seed-like resting stage that lies dormant in the seafloor for much of the year, germinating or hatching only when conditions are suitable. The newly germinated cells swim to the surface and multiply using the sun's energy, producing a "bloom" that can be dangerous due to the family of potent neurotoxins called saxitoxins that the free-swimming cells produce.

... The toxin can cause illness and mortality of marine wildlife such as larger fish, marine mammals, and seabirds. This is of particular concern for members of coastal communities in northern and western Alaska who rely on a variety of marine resources for food.

... The authors demonstrate that warming over the last two decades has increased bottom water temperatures in Ledyard Bay and nearby waters by nearly 2°C, sufficient to nearly double the flux of germinated cells from the seafloor and also speeding up the process, thereby advancing bloom initiation by almost three weeks and lengthening the window for favorable growth and bloom formation in surface waters.

"What we're seeing now are very different Arctic Ocean conditions than anyone in living memory has known," said Anderson.

Donald M. Anderson et al, Evidence for massive and recurrent toxic blooms of Alexandrium catenella in the Alaskan Arctic, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021)
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/41/e2107387118

[kassy]

Russia wants to use the northern sea route around the year starting 2023, or next year.

The article (dutch) says the Russians invested in infrastructure to develop the route which can only be ice breakers?

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6161775/rusland-wil-snellere-route-over-zee-het-hele-jaar-door-kunnen-gebruiken.html

[Glen Koehler]

    NOVA science show (Public Broadcast System, PBS) in the U.S. this week is about the 2019-2020 MOSAIC mission.  NOVA tends to overplay drama over data to keep viewers interested, but it is still a good show.  The 53-minute video is both beautiful and interesting, and refreshingly features women scientists in leadership. It is available free online (for now at least), at https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/arctic-drift/
    It may go behind PBS member paywall in a couple of weeks.  Not sure how they schedule that.

    Good news:  Julienne Strove et al collected ground truthing data to improve the accuracy of satellite estimates of ice thickness.

Arctic Drift #4813: 
     Journey to the top of the world with scientists as they embark on the most ambitious Arctic research expedition of all time. The Arctic - a vast frozen ocean, shrouded in darkness for half the year - is warming at twice the rate as the rest of the globe. Since the northern ice cap acts as a cooling system for the entire planet, what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. As the ice cap melts, the world warms faster, disrupting weather patterns, diverting ocean currents, and endangering biodiversity. Yet because the Arctic is so inaccessible and inhospitable, establishing exactly what's going on and forecasting its future have proven elusive.

     Now, Arctic Drift takes viewers on a groundbreaking expedition that will bring vital new clarity to scientists' predictions of global change. Experts from twenty different nations join the voyage of the 12,000-ton Polarstern icebreaker as it's gripped by the polar ice and drifts for an entire year. From this unique research station, they can make previously impossible long-term observations and experiments. But long hours in this harsh environment bring their own challenges, including hungry polar bears, perilous sea ice cracks, and equipment failure. With breathtaking cinematography, heart-wrenching personal stories, and high stakes science, Arctic Drift follows the scientists in their risky race against time to understand the Arctic before it changes our world forever.

[vox_mundi]

Scientists Discover Large Rift In the Arctic's Last Bastion of Thick Sea Ice 
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-scientists-large-rift-arctic-bastion.html

A new study documents the formation of a 3,000-square-kilometer rift in the oldest and thickest Arctic ice. The area of open water, called a polynya, is the first to be identified in an area north of Ellesmere Island, Canada's northernmost island, and is another sign of the rapid changes taking place in the Arctic, according to researchers.

In May 2020, a hole a little smaller than the state of Rhode Island opened up for two weeks in the Last Ice Area, a million-square-kilometer patch of sea ice north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island that's expected to be the last refuge of ice in a rapidly warming Arctic.

The polynya is the first one that has been identified in this part of the Last Ice Area, according to a new study detailing the findings in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters

The formation of the polynya was unusual because of its location, off the coast of Ellesmere Island, where the ice is up to five meters thick.

"No one had seen a polynya in this area before. North of Ellesmere Island it's hard to move the ice around or melt it just because it's thick, and there's quite a bit of it. So, we generally haven't seen polynyas form in that region before," said Kent Moore, an Arctic researcher at the University of Toronto-Mississauga who was lead author on the study.

The surprise polynya formed during extreme wind conditions in a lingering anti-cyclone, or a high-pressure storm with high winds that rotate clockwise, Moore found. He combed through decades of sea-ice imagery and atmospheric data and found that polynyas formed there at least twice before, under similar conditions in 2004 and 1988, but no one had noticed.


G. W. K. Moore et al, First Observations of a Transient Polynya in the Last Ice Area North of Ellesmere Island, Geophysical Research Letters (2021).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL095099

[Jim Hunt]

First Observations of a Transient Polynya in the Last Ice Area North of Ellesmere Island

I beg to differ. Yours truly in 2018:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/could-northabout-circumnavigate-greenland-in-2018/

[vox_mundi]

Alas, the pace of academic publishing is 'glacial'

[oren]

The "good" news: Glaciers are accelerating.

[vox_mundi]

oren, you made me laugh 

& Jim: give the man some props...

... He combed through decades of sea-ice imagery and atmospheric data and found that polynyas formed there at least twice before, under similar conditions in 2004 and 1988, but no one had noticed.

That's a lot of 'combing'

[Niall Dollard]

Not much gets unnoticed by the ASIF. Freegass's post back in May 2020

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg264333.html#msg264333

[Jim Hunt]

That's a lot of 'combing'

Although perhaps not enough? When does a "crack" qualify as a "polynya"? From March 2013:

https://econnexus.org.uk/a-new-world-view-from-nasa/

[paolo]

Jim,
The article quoted by Vox refers to North Ellesmere and you still refer to North Greenland, not exactly the same thing 

[Jim Hunt]

The article quoted by Vox refers to North Ellesmere and you still refer to North Greenland

Note that there is also this recent learned journal article from Axel Schweiger et al.:

"Accelerated sea ice loss in the Wandel Sea points to a change in the Arctic’s Last Ice Area"

The Arctic Ocean’s Wandel Sea is the easternmost sector of the Last Ice Area, where thick, old sea ice is expected to endure longer than elsewhere. Nevertheless, in August 2020 the area experienced record-low sea ice concentration.

The question remains. What differentiates a "crack" from a "polynya"? And does this not qualify as a polynya north of Ellesmere in August 2018, clearly visible in the AMSR2 animation at my link?

https://go.nasa.gov/2Z3gyQf

[paolo]

Jim,

> In the article "First Observations of a Transient Polynya in the Last Ice Area North of Ellesmere Island" it is not said that there have been no other polynyas apart from those of 1988 and 2004, but that there have been no other polynyas out of the norm

In particular in the event of 2020 the area of open water exceeds 2 standard deviations above the mean

> A "crack" is a particular type of "polynya", I see no other difference.

[Tor Bejnar]

I've posted on these threads an old Canadian publication that describes many polynyas in and north of northern Canada over the years.  It is quite apparent that any crack that leaves open water is (at least sometimes) called a polynya.

However, see this cross post:

I don't recall ever seeing the term "flaw polynya" before, and it took some searching to find a definition, finally (from here):

flaw polynyas (band-like ice-free areas), which form
simultaneously with land-fast ice in November. Flaw polynyas
reach tens of kilometres in width and migrate out of fast ice
hundreds of kilometres northward (Smolyanitsky et al., 2003),

and here

A polynya is defined as any nonlinear-shaped area of open water and/or sea ice cover < 30 cm thick enclosed by a much thicker ice cover (WMO 1970). It can be restricted on one side by a coast, terrned shore polynyas, or bounded by fast ice, termed flaw polynyas.

[vox_mundi]

... Not a polynya