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be cause

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #150 on: November 20, 2016, 02:36:30 PM »
come on .. there are other places for bollock ticks (sorry .. politics )
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

budmantis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #151 on: November 20, 2016, 06:29:58 PM »
Because all the Republicans have done in the last eight years is stonewall, I have to agree with Jim. There may be areas were both parties agree, but based on what we've seen so far since the election, there may be very little room for accommodation. It's time to push back, hard.

Apologies for continuing off topic discussion.

be cause

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #152 on: November 20, 2016, 06:37:30 PM »
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

helorime

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #153 on: November 22, 2016, 07:27:44 PM »
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

charles_oil

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #154 on: December 01, 2016, 12:42:39 PM »
Let there be maps....

Modern day explorers from the Arctic nations of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Russia, and the United States are setting their sights north to map the seabed and establish sovereign rights to resources in an icy area that just over a decade ago was virtually inaccessible.

http://coastguard.dodlive.mil/2016/11/mapping-the-extended-continental-shelf-in-the-arctic/

Sigmetnow

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #155 on: December 06, 2016, 07:23:32 PM »
Ryan Maue:  Upper-level atmosphere configuration very similar in scale & magnitude as infamous Jan 2014 #PolarVortex popularized by me and @afreedma
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/806176153031602176

Eric Holthaus:  Huge burst of unseasonable warmth heading from Russian Arctic toward North Pole this week. In some places, 60 degrees F warmer than "normal"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/806181605593055232

James Warner:  Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week... over 25C warmer than average in parts. #Arctic
(Stunning animation at the link:  https://twitter.com/metmanjames/status/805716431711174656 )
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #156 on: December 06, 2016, 07:44:52 PM »

NSIDC update is out for December:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/


FishOutofWater

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #157 on: December 06, 2016, 09:07:50 PM »
Yes, sigmet, I wrote about the coming blast of heat to Siberia and the Arctic, and the blast of cold from the Arctic and Siberia to north America a few days before those folks did. I just checked the story and discovered it got a life on Facebook. Not viral, but over 9000 shares.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/02/1606465/--Siberian-air-Will-Blow-to-U-S-as-Polar-Vortex-Breaks-Down-Jet-Stream-Crosses-North-Pole

I considered x-posting it here but life interfered.

I try to simplify the story for general audiences. I know that there is a Eurasian polar vortex and a north American polar vortex at 500mb in the winter months but didn't want to confuse folks with too many details. Meteorology can be quite confusing. I have been trying to better my understanding of the physics of tropospheric/stratospheric interactions and it made my head hurt. Now I have a better understanding of blocking highs like the one that's happening now, but part of my improved understanding is that I don't understand it very well. The physics of large blocking highs, like this one is ridiculous.

The vortex displacement goes up to very high levels of the stratosphere. Low potential vorticity over North America and high potential vorticity over Siberia is apparently enhancing the developing blocking pattern over the Beaufort sea side of the Arctic.

Image source: Free University of Berlin

logicmanPatrick

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #158 on: December 07, 2016, 01:32:13 AM »
@Fishoutofwater - I've linked to your article in my blog.  You may recognise the blog title:
'Something is wrong in the Arctic'.  :-)

@all - please do drop by The Chatter Box and leave comments.  I will try to keep up the blogging momentum while Neven has a rest.

http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/something_is_wrong_in_the_arctic-180763
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Cid_Yama

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #159 on: December 13, 2016, 01:34:03 AM »
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research
New expedition in Laptev Sea suggests increase in the rate of underwater permafrost degradation.
Quote
'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' Semiletov said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'

Five years ago Semiletov reported:
Quote
'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this...

'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

'We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere is many thousands of times.

'If 3-4% from underwater go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming."

The new expedition was organised by the Laboratory of Arctic Research in Pacific Oceanology Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and was  funded by the Russian Government and the Russian Science Foundation.
link
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Juan C. García

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #160 on: December 13, 2016, 03:39:39 AM »
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 03:52:57 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Shared Humanity

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #161 on: December 13, 2016, 04:26:44 AM »
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research
New expedition in Laptev Sea suggests increase in the rate of underwater permafrost degradation.
Quote
'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' Semiletov said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'

Five years ago Semiletov reported:
Quote
'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this...

'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

'We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere is many thousands of times.

'If 3-4% from underwater go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming."

The new expedition was organised by the Laboratory of Arctic Research in Pacific Oceanology Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and was  funded by the Russian Government and the Russian Science Foundation.
link

You should cross post this on the Permafrost topic.

aarneg

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #162 on: December 13, 2016, 05:10:14 AM »
Hey people,

Just joined the forum. Here's some news from Arctic Norway - Bodø exactly. Temperatures been warm for a while as you can see from the Yr statistics.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bodø/Bodø/statistics.html

I study climate change and politics here within the UArctic system.

/aarne

Adam Ash

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #163 on: December 13, 2016, 12:29:02 PM »
Quote
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

A. Send this info to President Trump
B. Watch with 'interest' as oil exploration ships and rigs operate and flare waste gas within an ocean populated by kilometer-scale methane plumes.  Be interesting to see the Health and Safety Plan for that job!!!

oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #164 on: December 18, 2016, 08:43:57 PM »
Hey people,

Just joined the forum. Here's some news from Arctic Norway - Bodø exactly. Temperatures been warm for a while as you can see from the Yr statistics.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bodø/Bodø/statistics.html

I study climate change and politics here within the UArctic system.

/aarne

Welcome aarne

Neven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #165 on: December 18, 2016, 09:37:28 PM »
A belated welcome from me too, aarne.
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anotheramethyst

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #166 on: December 31, 2016, 04:06:30 AM »
Quote
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

A. Send this info to President Trump
B. Watch with 'interest' as oil exploration ships and rigs operate and flare waste gas within an ocean populated by kilometer-scale methane plumes.  Be interesting to see the Health and Safety Plan for that job!!!

When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice.  Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere.  Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place.  I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil.  So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane.  Of course, I'm no geologist lol.  I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on.  It's just not feasible.  An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful. 

mhampton

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #167 on: December 31, 2016, 05:18:21 PM »
When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice.  Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere.  Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place.  I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil.  So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane.  Of course, I'm no geologist lol.  I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on.  It's just not feasible.  An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful.

No offense but I think you're being naive about the scale of effort these companies are willing to put into such a project.  I mean this is just a normal oil rig base:



and I'm sure they have large teams of competent engineers trying to figure out how they need to beef the rigs up.

jdallen

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #168 on: December 31, 2016, 10:47:45 PM »
When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice.  Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere.  Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place.  I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil.  So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane.  Of course, I'm no geologist lol.  I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on.  It's just not feasible.  An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful.

No offense but I think you're being naive about the scale of effort these companies are willing to put into such a project.  I mean this is just a normal oil rig base:



and I'm sure they have large teams of competent engineers trying to figure out how they need to beef the rigs up.
I don't think anotheramethyst was suggesting they wouldn't do it, nor that they wouldn't put scads of engineers to work on the problems.

Mostly I think what he (and I) believe, is that greed will over come sensibility, and expedience triumph over caution.  Compound this with how little experience humanity has with major engineering projects in the Arctic, should energy companies aggressively pursue oil and gas extraction there, both he and I think there are catastrophic events awaiting us in the Arctic's future.
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anotheramethyst

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #169 on: January 06, 2017, 09:56:31 PM »
Thanks JD :) yes, that's exactly what I meant.  I was trying to be funny but I guess I should have been more serious about it.    It's not the lack of skilled engineers or technology, it's the sheer unpredictable wildness of the arctic.  I don't think an oil rig of any kind can be built to withstand the Arctic for any reasonable length of time.  And incidentally, I've seen offshore drilling rigs in person. 

DoomInTheUK

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #170 on: January 10, 2017, 11:00:19 AM »
I can't see the oil being drilled any time soon. I think it's more of a book keeping exercise.
There's no way that producing this oil will be cost effective, but having an extra few hundred million barrels of proven reserve increases the company value.

There would need to be HUGE reserves there - fields in the billion barrel range, for it to be remotely cost effective to produce. We haven't found fields like that for many years.

At the moment, anyone trying to set up new production of offshore oil in the Arctic will lose a whole lot of money. Should the price of oil go back up around $100 a barrel then maybe...but then oil that high will crash the economy.

DrTskoul

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #171 on: January 10, 2017, 01:36:57 PM »
I can't see the oil being drilled any time soon. I think it's more of a book keeping exercise.
There's no way that producing this oil will be cost effective, but having an extra few hundred million barrels of proven reserve increases the company value.

There would need to be HUGE reserves there - fields in the billion barrel range, for it to be remotely cost effective to produce. We haven't found fields like that for many years.

At the moment, anyone trying to set up new production of offshore oil in the Arctic will lose a whole lot of money. Should the price of oil go back up around $100 a barrel then maybe...but then oil that high will crash the economy.

Up in the Arctic a well costs $1B ...dud or not..Also reserves might be large but nobody has yet to discover a large enough field to justify drilling for production. Engineering-wise, doable. There is a lot of research on ice movement and mechanics to allow them to engineer a platform. The only issue is cost.

Buddy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #172 on: January 10, 2017, 02:17:55 PM »
The race in the Arctic is going to be between the soon to come declining oil demand (due to both efficiency and the ever creeping UP of renewable power use)......and increased cost of drilling in the Arctic.

If costs are NOT going to warrant drilling from an economic standpoint.....it won't happen.  At least not much of it will happen.  Total....the French energy company (oil and gas...+...they own more than 50% of Sunpower the solar company).....promised several years ago that they would NEVER drill in the Arctic.  They are forward looking....and are not tied in to just fossil fuels.....they see what is coming down the road.

As electric cars begin to push into the mainstream in a couple of years.....and as a raft of new electric cars hit the road....demand for oil will weaken even more.  The economics of the situation are becoming clearer and clearer several years out:  Oil is dying in the transportation industry.....whether Trump and Putin like it or not.

In a couple of years...people will begin to "hold off" on buying fossil fuel cars because they know they will be worthless a few years after they buy them.  They will either buy an electric car...or wait a year or two until an electric car comes out that they like.  And ALL the automakers have a bunch of new electric cars coming out in the next 2 - 3 years (including BMW, Porsche, Ford,  ALL OF THEM).  That will be another "significant point" in the timeline of fossil fuels long term death spiral.  I think we are only a couple years away from that NEXT "tipping point".

Just like "malls".......fossil fuels are dying.  The retail outlet "The Limited" is closing ALL their mall stores they just announced.  ALL.  It always amazes me how "late to the party" some people in corporate America are.  People knew malls were dying in the US 10 years ago.  The same can be said for fossil fuels now.....but some companies continue to try and hang on....instead of looking for a way out (like the French company Total has done).











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marcel_g

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #173 on: January 10, 2017, 03:12:17 PM »
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.

Renewables and EVs now look like they're inevitable (eg. Tesla's rubber is hitting the road, as they've started actual battery production at the Gigafactory, Samsung just announced a next gen battery ), but on the other hand oil and coal and gas still occupy something like 90% of energy consumption, compared to 1-2% for renewables, so we really don't know if renewables are going to get deployed fast enough to win this one. Their deployment rates will have to keep doubling every few years, which is possible, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough. Kevin Anderson sure doesn't think we will avoid catastrophe.

Things will get really interesting if there is an oil supply restriction that causes an oil price spike in 2018 ( https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b#.jsj28dalh ) - would an economic crash cause people to switch to EVs faster, or would they hang on to their ICEs for longer because of economic uncertainty? Or would a global economic crash slow down capital expenditures on renewables? Or would it restrict riskier expenditures like Arctic drilling? Russia is probably committed to Arctic exploration no matter what happens or what the cost is, I expect Putin to double down no matter what. His whole structure of power is based on producing oil.

There is also much talk of the developing world leapfrogging coal based grids and going straight to distributed renewables, much as they leapfrogged landline telephones and went straight to cells, but if they're starving and impoverished due to climate induced droughts + a global financial meltdown, will that transition actually happen? I guess that depends on the proportion of people in the developing world who are affected that way compared to the number of people who manage to stay out of poverty.

I check sites like cleantechnica every day, just to look for some positive news in this ongoing battle. I have no idea how it's going to go, except that even if we as the human race do really well, we're still going to get into a climatic danger zone somewhere over 2C. The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.


anotheramethyst

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #174 on: January 11, 2017, 08:17:10 AM »
The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.

I love that!  100% agree, and I will also steal this quote and use it often.  sorry but you can't stop me ;)

Buddy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #175 on: January 11, 2017, 03:28:11 PM »
Quote
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.

Agree....and agree with most of the rest of your post.  It is indeed a race.  Remember that the O&G industry moves with LONG lead times.  Somebody (or many of them) are going to get "hung out to dry" in coming years and over the next decade.

We don't KNOW when that supply/demand curve is going to top out...and begin its break DOWNWARD.  I believe we know it WILL HAPPEN.

It is truly going to be interesting to watch because there will be SIGNIFICANT WINNERS....and SIGNIFICANT LOSERS on many fronts:

1)  Equity markets (companies that will be winners and losers.....as well as those who invest in those companies)
2)  States and countries who make the "right" moves early on.....and those that don't (Russia is going to be in even more serious trouble)
3)  Oh yes....that blue planet we live on.  Winner?  Loser?  Just how stupid will we be before we make a HARD TURN towards renewables.
4)  Politicians:  Look forward to the coming 12 months.  I have my paint brushes handy...and looking forward to painting politicians with their own words and deeds.  Here in Georgia...where we have an over abundance of idiots in the political sphere.....I will need a LOT of brushes. ;D

Interesting times indeed......and the Arctic is an incredibly important battleground for multiple reasons.

And in the words of the immortal Babe Ruth:  "It's hard to beat a person who never gives up."

« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 03:38:17 PM by Buddy »
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marcel_g

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #176 on: January 11, 2017, 06:41:49 PM »
The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.

I love that!  100% agree, and I will also steal this quote and use it often.  sorry but you can't stop me ;)
no worries anotheramethyst!  8)

I'm pretty sure I borrowed that idea from Robert Scribbler and Alex Steffen.

cheers

marcel_g

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #177 on: January 11, 2017, 06:47:12 PM »
Quote
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.

Interesting times indeed......and the Arctic is an incredibly important battleground for multiple reasons.

And in the words of the immortal Babe Ruth:  "It's hard to beat a person who never gives up."

Go get 'em Buddy! I also agree with Obama and McKibben and everyone else that it's going to be people power that forces the changes. The looming Trumpist nightmare in the US might be a serious set back for a while, but people over there in the US, and here in Canada, and everywhere, need to keep fighting for every 0.1C limit we can get.


Michael J

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #178 on: January 19, 2017, 10:32:53 AM »
The Oil and Gas industry have invested heavily into right wing governments who will subsidise any arctic drilling.

helorime

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #179 on: January 20, 2017, 09:28:02 PM »
All references to Climate change have been removed from the White House page as of noon, when Trump was sworn in as POTUS.  Any bets on how long the U.S. government will continue to track arctic and antarctic ice?  NSIDC, NOAA, NASA climate data's day may be numbered.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Andre

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #180 on: January 20, 2017, 09:37:41 PM »
All references to Climate change have been removed from the White House page as of noon, when Trump was sworn in as POTUS.  Any bets on how long the U.S. government will continue to track arctic and antarctic ice?  NSIDC, NOAA, NASA climate data's day may be numbered.

Vox provides a nice overview of the changes:

http://www.vox.com/2017/1/20/14338342/trump-white-house-energy-page

Neven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #181 on: January 20, 2017, 11:00:50 PM »
Continue discussion here.
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martalunde68

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #182 on: February 19, 2017, 05:54:22 PM »
European Union considers to prohibit the use and carriage of heavy-fuel oil for vessels calling at EU ports.
(Read this https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/02/eu-wants-ban-heavy-fuel-arctic )

bairgon

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #183 on: February 20, 2017, 08:35:29 AM »
"Ice-locked ship to drift over the North Pole"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39024227

Quote
Germany is going to sail its 120m-long research vessel, the Polarstern, into the sea-ice at the top of the world and just let it get stuck so it can drift across the north pole.

The 2,500km (1,550-mile) trip, to begin in 2019, is likely to take a year.

Researchers hope to gather valuable new insights on the region where Earth's climate is changing fastest.

Last month the extent of Arctic sea-ice was the lowest ever recorded for a January (during the satellite era), with temperatures several degrees above the long-term average.

Prof Markus Rex will lead the so-called MOSAiC project:

"The decline of Arctic sea-ice is much faster than the climate models can reproduce and we need better climate models to make better predictions for the future.

"There is a potential that in a few decades the Arctic will be ice free in summer. That would be a different world and we need to know about that in advance; we need to know is that going to happen or will that not happen?"

Hopefully they will have some ice to drift with...

Jim Hunt

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #184 on: February 20, 2017, 04:07:26 PM »
"Ice-locked ship to drift over the North Pole"

This is old news, but don't forget that Tara did something similar not so very long ago. The DAMOCLES project!

http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/opensource/cryosphere/documents/Trapped_in_the_ice_OER_2.pdf
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

martalunde68

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #185 on: February 20, 2017, 06:30:50 PM »

oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #186 on: February 20, 2017, 07:24:39 PM »
Hopefully they will have some ice to drift with...
My thoughts exactly!

longwalks1

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #187 on: February 20, 2017, 07:30:44 PM »
For a trip down Fram-Nansen memory lane. open source translations of Nansens "Furthest North" Vol. I and II.
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/30197
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/34120

Although neither the ship nor the sledges floated - walked to the actual North Pole, it was truly an monumental expedition. 

Hopefully the MOSAIC expedition will lead as charmed a life and bring back data and ideas. 

Mr.Far

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #188 on: February 21, 2017, 10:51:55 PM »
North Pole research ship RV Polarstern to be frozen in Arctic ice so scientists can study weather patterns:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2908150/north-pole-research-ship-rv-polarstern-to-be-frozen-in-arctic-ice-so-scientists-can-study-weather-patterns/

Neven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #189 on: February 22, 2017, 10:15:58 AM »
Welcome, Mr.Far, your profile has been released.
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sidd

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #190 on: March 24, 2017, 04:25:09 AM »
open access paper  about the arctic ice sheet before the Eemian (last interglacial) 140 Kyr ago.

Grounding of the shelf on the Lomonosov Ridge adds spice. Read all about it.

doi:10.5194/tc-2017-37

sidd

Laurent

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #191 on: March 26, 2017, 06:05:27 PM »
The link doesn't seem to work...!?

sidd

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #192 on: March 26, 2017, 08:31:15 PM »
http://dx.doi.org is the place to go. Put in the string following doi: into their search box and it will take you to the paper.

Adam Ash

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #193 on: March 27, 2017, 12:15:16 AM »
Barneo 2017 being established.

https://www.facebook.com/BarneoRu/?fref=nf
'The floe for Barneo is approved! It’s coordanates: 89º50'N 103º08'E. Temperature is -24ºС, it’s clear.'

Good to know there is some decent ice still there, albeit only about 20 km from the North Pole! 

Jim Hunt

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #194 on: March 27, 2017, 10:19:21 PM »
Barneo 2017 being established.

Not  so new on the ASIF though!  See the dedicated thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Cate

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #195 on: March 30, 2017, 06:24:10 PM »
Not sure where to put this, parking it here----"increased sea ice and iceberg activity since last weekend" is threatening oil drilling operations off the east coast of Newfoundland. Precautionary measures are being taken to prevent damage to production and storage facilities.

This is not unusual. Ice is an expected seasonal hazard for oil production in this area.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/searose-iceberg-1.4047254

Andre

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #196 on: April 07, 2017, 06:29:56 AM »
There has been plenty of talk about Atlantic waters having a greater impact on the Arctic, so this seems a fitting article to provide some additional insight:

Warm Atlantic waters wage a new assault on Arctic ice from below

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/warm-atlantic-waters-wage-new-assault-arctic-ice-below

Abstract:

A new enemy is undermining ice floating on the Arctic Ocean: heat from below.

Sensors that have plumbed the depths of Arctic seas since 2002 have found warm currents creeping up from the Atlantic Ocean and helping drive the dramatic retreat of sea ice there over the last decade. A new study shows this “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean as a new, powerful driver of melting, alongside losses due to rising air temperatures.

The paper shows “a massive shift” in the behavior of the Arctic Ocean over a short time, says Finlo Cottier, a physical oceanographer with the Scottish Association for Marine Science in Oban who was not part of the study team. “Here we’re seeing an ocean basin changing on a generational timescale—or less,” he adds.

[...]

The result, he says, is an increased “Atlantification” of the Arctic, where the eastern side of the Eurasian basin is becoming more like the western side, the team reports today in Science. The top of the Atlantic water, according to one mooring, had risen from a depth of 140 meters in the winter of 2003–04 to a depth of 85 meters just a decade later. Without summer sea ice forming to establish the CHL, he says, the ocean mixes more—and less ice forms.

On the eastern side of the Eurasian basin, say Polyakov and his colleagues, air temperatures were the main culprit for ice melting in the 2000s. Now, however, they believe air temperatures and warm waters share the blame about equally. Polyakov says a positive feedback loop is underway, in which less summer sea ice will lead to warmer winter waters and even less summer ice in subsequent years. One unknown is how the addition of massive flows of freshwater from Siberian rivers, bolstered by thawing permafrost, could affect the system, says study co-author Eddy Carmack, an oceanographer with Fisheries and Oceans Canada in Sidney. That new freshwater could encourage more sea ice to form on the basin, unless winds wash the new water away.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2017, 06:34:57 AM by Andre »

Rick Aster

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #197 on: April 07, 2017, 09:00:41 PM »
A different take on the same study is provided by Brian Kahn at https://www.wunderground.com/news/climate-change-atlantic-ocean-arctic-sea-ice?__prclt=ktJcsr69 "Parts of the Arctic Ocean are Turning Into the Atlantic and That's Not Good." A key point mentioned frequently in previous discussions on Arctic Sea Ice Forum: ocean layers are breaking down.

Quote
The ocean has become gradually less stratified since the 1970s. Using data from buoys and satellites, Polyakov and his colleagues have found a more marked shift over the past decade and a half. Since 2002, the difference in water temperatures between the layers has dropped by about 2°F.

A likely point of confusion: here, "eastern" refers to the Eastern Eurasian Basin, not the Canadian Basin and Beaufort Sea region that might also be referred to as "eastern" in the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, "western" refers to the Western Eurasian Basin. The main point of the paper, from my read of this article, is that the movement of Atlantic Water from the Western Eurasian Basin into the Eastern Eurasian Basin in recent years is bigger than you would imagine by looking at the ice edge.

Blizzard92

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #198 on: May 13, 2017, 04:19:52 AM »
I wasn't sure where to post this, but I thought it may be of interest to some people. Recent work from my lab group on springtime extreme moisture transport into the Arctic and the subsequent sea ice response.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD026324/full
UC Irvine - Earth System Science Ph.D. Candidate
Cornell University - Atmospheric Sciences B.Sc.

Twitter: @ZLabe
Website: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/

Andre

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #199 on: May 19, 2017, 11:44:59 PM »
So much for the seed vault being built for eternity...  :-\

Arctic stronghold of world’s seeds flooded after permafrost melts

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/19/arctic-stronghold-of-worlds-seeds-flooded-after-permafrost-melts

Abstract:
"It was designed as an impregnable deep-freeze to protect the world’s most precious seeds from any global disaster and ensure humanity’s food supply forever. But the Global Seed Vault, buried in a mountain deep inside the Arctic circle, has been breached after global warming produced extraordinary temperatures over the winter, sending meltwater gushing into the entrance tunnel.

The vault is on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen and contains almost a million packets of seeds, each a variety of an important food crop. When it was opened in 2008, the deep permafrost through which the vault was sunk was expected to provide “failsafe” protection against “the challenge of natural or man-made disasters”.

But soaring temperatures in the Arctic at the end of the world’s hottest ever recorded year led to melting and heavy rain, when light snow should have been falling. “It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” said Hege Njaa Aschim, from the Norwegian government, which owns the vault."