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JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #300 on: March 18, 2015, 04:12:13 PM »
There is a lot of truth in the following article about modern American militarism (it has been part of us for so long it bears paying attention to how it has evolved).

I mention how you change people and get them to do things by manipulating their subconscious human reactions to threats as a way of making progress on dealing with climate change and carrying capacity issues.  Here is a picture of how others are doing the same things for different purposes. 

It should provide a window on why it is going to be so hard to get the US to really change in good ways and why we resort so quickly to the use of the military.  And it also points to how you go about the manipulation if you choose that path.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/big-dick-school-american-patriotism-make.html

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #302 on: March 20, 2015, 05:19:34 PM »
Blowback or the Law of Unintended Consequences

Huge efforts and vast resources which are needed for far more important purposes go into these things.  The dark side of being for BAU.

http://firedoglake.com/2015/03/19/libya-burning-isis-lays-claim-to-another-country-right-at-europes-door/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #303 on: March 20, 2015, 05:28:35 PM »
Well written, but the important question was left unanswered.  What will Americas response to this weakening of its control be?  Will we accept that our power to control and maintain our empire is diminnishing?  Or will we double down and go for even more dominance?  Perhaps that's  a rhetorical question.

Global cooperation on climate change in this type of semi-toxic political and economic environments is how likely?

http://www.williampfaff.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=721
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #304 on: April 01, 2015, 07:54:27 PM »
My parents are rolling over in their graves.

http://firedoglake.com/2015/03/31/us-military-will-train-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/

It makes you wonder at the insanity. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

anotheramethyst

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #305 on: April 01, 2015, 09:50:58 PM »
well Jim, looks like u answered ur own question.  classic cold war tactics:  any enemy of the russians is a friend of ours.  i think this recent revival of the cold war mentality is frightening all on its own.  me and other paranoid types speculate this comes from the pentagon foreseeing resource wars and strategizing to take control sooner rather than later.  i really hope i'm wrong. 

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #306 on: April 14, 2015, 04:31:44 AM »
Guess who was born on April 20th????

Quote
U.S. to Train Nazi Troops in Ukraine, Starting on April 20th

It has just been announced that, starting on April 20th, U.S. troops will start training troops of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion.

The Azov Battalion was founded and its members were selected by Andrei Biletsky, a Ukrainian nazi (that’s an ideological term, meaning racist fascist — not a term referring specifically to the first political party with that particular ideology, the National Socialist Party of Germany). When Britain’s Guardian interviewed members, the reporter was shocked to find that they’re nazis (“neo-Nazis”).

Biletsky proudly explains his ideology as follows:

“Social Nationalism is based on a number of fundamental principles that clearly distinguish it from other right-wing movements. This triad is: socialism, racism, imperialism. … On the principle of socialism [in the sense that Hitler used it] follows our complete negation of democracy and liberalism. … Instead there is natural selection of the best representatives of the Nation — born-leaders as Ukraine’s leaders. … Racism: All our nationalism is nothing — just a castle in the sand — without reliance on the foundationstone of blood Races. …

The historic mission of our Nation, a watershed in this century, is thus to lead the White peoples of the world in the final crusade for their survival. It is to lead the war against Semites and the sub-humans they use.  … Social Nationalism raises to shield all old Ukrainian Aryan values, forgotten in modern society.”

Some guy named...

Adolf Hitler

Global cooperation is exactly what they have in mind if I read that right.  Right??

We are so f**ked.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/u-s-to-train-nazi-troops-in-ukraine-starting-on-april-20th/5440841
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #307 on: April 14, 2015, 06:03:10 PM »
JimD,

I don't pretend to understand all that is going on in US foreign policy. It certainly does seem that the resource wars are beginning in earnest and that nations are jostling for position. I appreciate the information and opinions you share. The great unraveling continues!  :-\

Laurent

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #308 on: April 22, 2015, 08:23:28 PM »
Barack Obama: climate change can no longer be denied or ignored – video
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2015/apr/22/barack-obama-climate-change-video

Well, well, green BAU wil not save US or the world, we have to be smarter than that...First recognise that green technology pollute, then display the amount of pollution for each type of products in CO2 eq before buying so the people can chose. Find a way to limit cities to their ecological foot print... and the most important, find a way to control human population without too much worry.

JimD

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We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #310 on: May 26, 2015, 04:29:53 PM »
Words form the prime neo-con strategist in the US.

Is this what he really thinks, or is it what he wants us to think he thinks? 

All the world lacks is a more effective empire?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/25/its-time-to-bring-imperialism-back-to-the-middle-east-syria-iraq-islamic-state-iran/#
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #311 on: May 29, 2015, 02:46:57 PM »
JimD
Let's Just hope that TPTB haven't found the perfect combination of runaway global warming and nuclear winter.
Terry


JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #312 on: July 21, 2015, 06:12:51 PM »
History rhyme's once again.

Quote
Retired general and former Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark on Friday called for World War II-style internment camps to be revived for “disloyal Americans.” In an interview with MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts in the wake of the mass shooting in Chatanooga, Tennessee, Clark said that during World War II, “if someone supported Nazi Germany at the expense of the United States, we didn’t say that was freedom of speech, we put him in a camp, they were prisoners of war.”...

It just goes to show you being a 4 star general and a Presidential candidate does not mean you are educated and know your history.  Almost ALL of those interned by the US in WWII were loyal Japanese Americans not German sympathizers.  But, hey!  We built those camps for a reason (yes a few actually exist) why not use them?

Quote
...“We have got to identify the people who are most likely to be radicalized. We’ve got to cut this off at the beginning,” Clark said. “I do think on a national policy level we need to look at what self-radicalization means because we are at war with this group of terrorists.” And he added that “not only the United States but our allied nations like Britain, Germany and France are going to have to look at their domestic law procedures.”...

And all you Euro folks need to get with the program too by the way.  lol love this world!  I think we, in general, deserve what is coming.

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/07/20/chattanooga-wesley-clark-calls-internment-camps-disloyal-americans/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Neven

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #313 on: July 21, 2015, 08:34:24 PM »
Wow, that's creepy.
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ritter

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #314 on: July 21, 2015, 10:58:34 PM »
Wow, that's creepy.

No kidding. Got to love a good witch hunt. We'll need a new term for "red scare." Muslim scare?  :(

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #315 on: July 23, 2015, 05:59:38 PM »
Mission creep?  Well not really as the missions never really ended but were rebranded.

Those keeping track will note that US airstrikes in ISIS held territory now number some 5000.  Given the known lethality of such airstrikes we can be pretty certain that the bottom number of people killed in these strikes is around 20,000.  And likely quite a bit higher.  Yet the problem gets no better.

Quote
In all three of the countries where the Obama administration declared US wars “over” in the past few years - Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya - the US military is expanding its presence or dropping bombs at an ever-increasing rate. And the government seems to be keeping the American public in the dark on the matter more than ever.

Pentagon leaders suggested this week that the US military wants to keep remaining 9,800 troops in Afghanistan from withdrawing in 2016, despite the fact that the Obama administration declared combat operations in the country “over” six months ago.....

Away from the headlines, Libya continues to deteriorate since the US and NATO allies bombed the region and deposed dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. “Many parts of Libya, particularly in the east, have been converted into jihadist training camps, attracting fighters from Tunisia to Iraq,” the Daily Beast reported a few days ago.

As a result, the US military to desperately look to build another drone base near Libya that they can start launching regular drone strikes from - targeting both Libya and “elsewhere in North Africa.” ....

I note that the US is well into its long election season and there is always heavy emphasis on militarism (more than usual I mean) and no one running for President would even consider bringing up the idea of scaling back defense/security issues if they had any real interest in getting elected.  Expect more of the same.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/22/america-war-iraq-libya-afghanistan-endless
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #316 on: July 25, 2015, 10:43:22 PM »
No idea where this really belongs but since they are the enforcement arm of the empire ...

Quote
Elephant In The Room: The Pentagon’s Massive Carbon Footprint

It’s not news that climate change threatens the security of every person on planet Earth. ....

What is news: the Pentagon’s enormous, unacknowledged contribution to climate change.

According to its own study, in 2013 the Pentagon consumed fuel equivalent to 90,000,000 barrels of crude oil. This amounts to 80% of the total fuel usage by the federal government. If burned as jet fuel it produces about 38,700,000 metric tons of CO2. And the Pentagon’s figures do not include carbon produced by the thousands of bombs dropped in 2013, or the fires that burned after the jets and drones departed...

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/23/72279/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #317 on: August 03, 2015, 10:04:41 PM »
If anyone is up for watching something really scary I wanted to point out that the first political debate of this election season is this Thursday.

The top 10 of the 17 Republicans running to bring the US military to Your Front Door are going to mud wrestle.  Current top contender is The Donald.

If that does not scare you nothing will.

Fox Propaganda Network  News 9 pm ET Aug 6th.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #318 on: August 03, 2015, 10:48:11 PM »
Current top contender is The Donald.

Polls put Trump top but bookies put Bush as most likely. Are the bookies more likely to be right in the end? Do they expect Trump to trip up somewhere or is Bush more likely to have a better campaign with more and better established ground troops supporting his campaign or something else?

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #319 on: August 03, 2015, 11:05:55 PM »
If anyone is up for watching something really scary I wanted to point out that the first political debate of this election season is this Thursday.

The top 10 of the 17 Republicans running to bring the US military to Your Front Door are going to mud wrestle.  Current top contender is The Donald.

If that does not scare you nothing will.

Fox Propaganda Network  News 9 pm ET Aug 6th.

Good reminder JimD.  Don't forget that Fox will be hosting the Junior Varsity Debate, with the 7 lower ranked candidates earlier that same day. We can look forward to multiple promises of the following idiocies:

Defunding Obamacare
Starting a War with Iran
Kicking the "Illegal" Mexicans out of the  country and building a wall to keep them out
Reducing the tax burden on businesses so that they can continue to grow
Provide easier access to gun ownership
Remove burdensome environmental regulations
Prohibiting use of Federal funds for Climate Research

We may be on the brink of societal collapse!
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ccgwebmaster

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #320 on: August 03, 2015, 11:16:11 PM »
If that does not scare you nothing will.

It's rather amusing? Maybe it shouldn't be  :D

sedziobs

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #321 on: August 03, 2015, 11:45:50 PM »
14 of the Republican candidates will be debating in just over an hour (7:00 Eastern on CSPAN).  No Trump, but should be scary nonetheless.

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #322 on: August 04, 2015, 12:18:07 AM »
If anyone is up for watching something really scary I wanted to point out that the first political debate of this election season is this Thursday.

The top 10 of the 17 Republicans running to bring the US military to Your Front Door are going to mud wrestle.  Current top contender is The Donald.

If that does not scare you nothing will.

Fox Propaganda Network  News 9 pm ET Aug 6th.

Good reminder JimD.  Don't forget that Fox will be hosting the Junior Varsity Debate, with the 7 lower ranked candidates earlier that same day. We can look forward to multiple promises of the following idiocies:

Defunding Obamacare
Starting a War with Iran
Kicking the "Illegal" Mexicans out of the  country and building a wall to keep them out
Reducing the tax burden on businesses so that they can continue to grow
Provide easier access to gun ownership
Remove burdensome environmental regulations
Prohibiting use of Federal funds for Climate Research

We may be on the brink of societal collapse!


A preemptive nuclear attack on Moscow 5 days after I'm elected.


Bye Bye

ritter

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #323 on: August 04, 2015, 05:45:09 PM »
Current top contender is The Donald.

If that does not scare you nothing will.

American politics--the turd with the most entrained methane floats to the top.

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #324 on: August 04, 2015, 10:22:55 PM »
Current top contender is The Donald.

Polls put Trump top but bookies put Bush as most likely. Are the bookies more likely to be right in the end? Do they expect Trump to trip up somewhere or is Bush more likely to have a better campaign with more and better established ground troops supporting his campaign or something else?

I go with the bookies.  The Donald is a godsend for Bush.  Absent Trump the more extreme Republicans have a much better chance of tripping up Bush.   Bush has the money and staff to win.  But American politics is pretty crazy right now.  We have had dark horses come out of nowhere to win here before (Obama, Carter) so who knows what happens.  We could easily end up with neither Clinton or Bush - though my bet is one of them.  They have big money and big machines.  It might amuse you to know that the biggest benefactor of Wall Street money is not Bush it is Clinton - that says a LOT to me.

I do know one thing for certain.  If a Republican wins the White House it will set back efforts to mitigate climate change and a host of other important issues severely. 


OLN Yes you have it all there.

Walker has already said he will send in the Army in between being sworn in and the formal ball held that evening.  I think he means Iran, but, hey, why think small?

http://www.thenation.com/article/scott-walker-military-actions-on-inaugural-day-are-very-possible/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #325 on: August 10, 2015, 09:11:08 PM »
In many locations in this thread and elsewhere here I have tried to give a picture of how I see US global strategy being designed in relation to climate change and in response to approaching and early stage collapse dynamics.

The below link is about Pentagon plans as they relate to those very things.  As much as many here (and else where) have reacted negatively to much of what I have opined here is some pretty solid confirmation of many of my points.

Yup they get it.  They are fully on board with climate change, carrying capacity and over population.  No they are not interested in solving 'your' problems as they have their own obligations to take care of.....and you best not get in the way.

Thus, this is how an empire responds to our existential crises.

Quote
...The report to the Pentagon shows that the US Army sees “resource stewardship” not as a fluffy concern of hippy tree-huggers who want to save the planet, but as a fundamental national security imperative....

...The US Army is preparing for a new era of war for oil.

While energy has always played a role in military conflicts, US military experts believe the geopolitics of energy, land and water is increasingly central to who rules, or ruins, the world.
....

....The plan is not perfect. The US Army’s understanding of “resilience” – the capacity to anticipate, prepare for, withstand and adapt to “natural or man-made disruptions” and to “recover rapidly” from them – is based on the unquestionable assumption that US-dominated global capitalism must be protected.

This notion of resilience is not about transforming the system that generates disruptions, but about increasing the US military’s ability to withstand disruptions to capitalism, thus keeping the system rumbling along:....

...The imperative to protect business-as-usual is reflected in a separate report published by the US Army’s institute for geostrategic and national security research....   

...It also specifically warns that US energy interests – including the need to regulate the global oil supply and price system – may lead to more US military interventions across the Middle East and Africa, especially in the context of proliferating climate-induced emergencies:

“Evolving energy-based US national interests in Africa or the Middle East may shape the degree to which the US military becomes involved in political or humanitarian crises in those regions. Tightening energy supplies may alter fundamentally the way in which the United States wields military force in a contingency operation.”....

....Elsewhere, the report advocates a far more interventionist approach to Latin America, described as “potentially rich in unconventional oil and shale gas resources, as well as renewables. These resources can fuel domestic growth” as well as make-up for the declining significance of Middle East oil resources....

Read this carefully.  There is a lot in it that is of value in understanding 'official' thought processes. 

As much as many dislike what this says there is no point in ignoring reality.  One has to deal with it.  So...what are you going to do or what do you think the response to the above should be????

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/pentagon-prepares-century-climate-emergencies-and-oil-wars-2021134422
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #326 on: August 10, 2015, 09:47:56 PM »
Current top contender is The Donald.

Polls put Trump top but bookies put Bush as most likely. Are the bookies more likely to be right in the end? Do they expect Trump to trip up somewhere or is Bush more likely to have a better campaign with more and better established ground troops supporting his campaign or something else?

I go with the bookies.  The Donald is a godsend for Bush.  Absent Trump the more extreme Republicans have a much better chance of tripping up Bush.   Bush has the money and staff to win.  But American politics is pretty crazy right now.  We have had dark horses come out of nowhere to win here before (Obama, Carter) so who knows what happens.  We could easily end up with neither Clinton or Bush - though my bet is one of them.  They have big money and big machines.  It might amuse you to know that the biggest benefactor of Wall Street money is not Bush it is Clinton - that says a LOT to me.

I do know one thing for certain.  If a Republican wins the White House it will set back efforts to mitigate climate change and a host of other important issues severely. 


OLN Yes you have it all there.

Walker has already said he will send in the Army in between being sworn in and the formal ball held that evening.  I think he means Iran, but, hey, why think small?

http://www.thenation.com/article/scott-walker-military-actions-on-inaugural-day-are-very-possible/

Well maybe I'll be eating crow.  The first poll is out following that mind boggleing 'debate' and Trump going full misogynist on the debates female moderator/reporter.

He leads the Republican with 23% and the 2nd place guy (Cruz !!! omg) has 13%.

It will be interesting to see what the next 4-5 polls say.  If they are approximately consistent Trump better get some good body guards as the party establishment will be getting their knifes out.

Do you think he works for Hillary?  lol

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/new-nbc-news-survey-monkey-poll-donald-trump-still-lead-n406766
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ivica

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #327 on: August 10, 2015, 10:13:25 PM »
How about adding one more candidate to election list, "None Offered".  8)
If such wins, all are disqualified and new turn follows... or is it blasphemy/heresy for 'democracy' as we know :P

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #328 on: August 10, 2015, 10:36:58 PM »
How about adding one more candidate to election list, "None Offered".  8)
If such wins, all are disqualified and new turn follows... or is it blasphemy/heresy for 'democracy' as we know :P

Personally I long ago came to the conclusion that democracy in the US was a farce.  As Emma Goldman once said, "If voting made a difference it would be illegal."
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ivica

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #329 on: August 10, 2015, 10:46:28 PM »
How about adding one more candidate to election list, "None Offered".  8)
If such wins, all are disqualified and new turn follows... or is it blasphemy/heresy for 'democracy' as we know :P

Personally I long ago came to the conclusion that democracy in the US was a farce.  As Emma Goldman once said, "If voting made a difference it would be illegal."

Eh, that reminds me on:


TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #330 on: August 10, 2015, 10:57:07 PM »
JimD
Looking forward to reading your link, but before I do I thought I'd share a few of my thoughts.


I don't think that the US was expecting the conformation of abiotic oil. Because of this I think their program - for at least this century - has been to grab control of every energy resource possible. Basing a policy on peak oil/peak gas might have made sense before abiotic oil was confirmed, but now it appears as a gamble that didn't have to be taken.


TPTB must be aware of global warming/ climate change. Any time a high official denies this I'm convinced that he or she is lying, as opposed to having been uninformed. If you are aware that the climate is crashing, and also believe that the world is running out of fuel, it may seem reasonable to try to control what little is left of a very finite supply, and if you aggravate long time friends and allies in the process, this is a price you have to pay in order to have some control when the crash comes.


Abiotic gas & oil changes the equation in a fundamental way. Not only is fuel renewable, it's available in such quantities that the recent exorbitant prices probably are unsustainable. No country has to pull off the velvet glove when dealing with energy matters, and in fact cooperation in dealing with sea level rise, droughts and food shortages might be preferable.


Hopefully the US of A will catch up to the most recent changes before she has either started a war that no one can win, or before she has alienated so many others that she becomes a pariah.


Now off to read your link.
Terry

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #331 on: August 10, 2015, 11:07:44 PM »
Well maybe I'll be eating crow.  The first poll is out following that mind boggleing 'debate' and Trump going full misogynist on the debates female moderator/reporter.

He leads the Republican with 23% and the 2nd place guy (Cruz !!! omg) has 13%.
[my BOLD]

It will be interesting to see what the next 4-5 polls say.  If they are approximately consistent Trump better get some good body guards as the party establishment will be getting their knifes out.

Do you think he works for Hillary?  lol

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/new-nbc-news-survey-monkey-poll-donald-trump-still-lead-n406766

OMG!!  Sadly, I can see that there are enough poorly educated, misogynistic, racists who actually believe Trump can be a leader on the national stage, but I did not think that there were that many. 
What is more unnerving is that Ted Cruz jumped into 2nd place.

I watched both debates and I would like to know if any one of the responders to this poll actually watched the debates.  In the Prime Time Event, John Kasich was the only one who acted like an adult.  In the Junior Varsity Event, I thought that Rick Perry actually did a good job of appearing presidential, and I detest him for what he did for 14 years as the governor of Texas.

The GOP might as well invite Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachman back into"Circus Ignoramus- 2015 "!!!
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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #332 on: August 11, 2015, 12:07:57 AM »
FOX NEWS Plot to Sabotage Donald Trump Fails!!

    "Donald Trump and Roger Ailes Make Up — for Now"
    By: Gabriel Sherman, New York Magazine - Daily Intelligencer

Full Article here:  http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/donald-trump-and-roger-ailes-make-up-for-now.html

It's quite obvious to me that FOX News planned to attack Donald Trump in Thursday Night's debate.  Roger Ailes is a very old friend and compatriot of President George H. W. Bush.  Considering this alliance and the Establishment Republican angst over Trump's candidacy, I'd be willing to bet that the GOP hierarchy and the Jeb Bush Campaign were involved somehow in trying to destroy Trump's candidacy.

Apparently, the loyal rabid FOX-spewing viewers did not appreciate that Meghan Kelly was so mean to Trump.  The vast majority of the e-mails and twitters received by FOX lambasted the network and Ms Kelly.  Roger Ailes is in panic mode, fearing that their loyal viewers will abandon the network.

"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #333 on: August 11, 2015, 12:31:54 AM »
FOX NEWS Plot to Sabotage Donald Trump Fails!!

    "Donald Trump and Roger Ailes Make Up — for Now"
    By: Gabriel Sherman, New York Magazine - Daily Intelligencer

Full Article here:  http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/donald-trump-and-roger-ailes-make-up-for-now.html

It's quite obvious to me that FOX News planned to attack Donald Trump in Thursday Night's debate.  Roger Ailes is a very old friend and compatriot of President George H. W. Bush.  Considering this alliance and the Establishment Republican angst over Trump's candidacy, I'd be willing to bet that the GOP hierarchy and the Jeb Bush Campaign were involved somehow in trying to destroy Trump's candidacy.

Apparently, the loyal rabid FOX-spewing viewers did not appreciate that Meghan Kelly was so mean to Trump.  The vast majority of the e-mails and twitters received by FOX lambasted the network and Ms Kelly.  Roger Ailes is in panic mode, fearing that their loyal viewers will abandon the network.

Yup be careful what you wish for or make.  You might get it.  One of the problems with brainwashed people is that they do not know they are brainwashed and they will act upon their programming.  Maybe Ailes forgot that.  The viewers like the bimbos on FOX because they are bimbos not in spite of their being bimbos.  Ms Kelly is there to look hot.  She is the reporter equivalent of the hot girls reporting on the NFL.  None of the viewers pay attention to what they say  they pay attention to their cleavage.   
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Rubikscube

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #334 on: August 11, 2015, 12:44:38 AM »
A somewhat different article about Trump.

https://pando.com/2015/07/23/short-fingered-vulgarian-cometh/7bd2fc2e5415411c8d43896406a4ba8acb728601/

NB: link expires after 48 hours (if it works in the first place).

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #335 on: August 11, 2015, 12:45:30 AM »
JimD
Looking forward to reading your link, but before I do I thought I'd share a few of my thoughts.


I don't think that the US was expecting the conformation of abiotic oil. Because of this I think their program - for at least this century - has been to grab control of every energy resource possible. Basing a policy on peak oil/peak gas might have made sense before abiotic oil was confirmed, but now it appears as a gamble that didn't have to be taken.


TPTB must be aware of global warming/ climate change. Any time a high official denies this I'm convinced that he or she is lying, as opposed to having been uninformed. If you are aware that the climate is crashing, and also believe that the world is running out of fuel, it may seem reasonable to try to control what little is left of a very finite supply, and if you aggravate long time friends and allies in the process, this is a price you have to pay in order to have some control when the crash comes.


Abiotic gas & oil changes the equation in a fundamental way. Not only is fuel renewable, it's available in such quantities that the recent exorbitant prices probably are unsustainable. No country has to pull off the velvet glove when dealing with energy matters, and in fact cooperation in dealing with sea level rise, droughts and food shortages might be preferable.


Hopefully the US of A will catch up to the most recent changes before she has either started a war that no one can win, or before she has alienated so many others that she becomes a pariah.


Now off to read your link.
Terry

RE: Abiotic oil.  You might want to read the following links as the hypothesis that our vast oil reserves are not of fossil origin has been thoroughly debunked many times.  But the origin of our fossil fuel deposits is not the point in any case.  We know where the remaining large deposits which are easy to get to are and there is a desire to control them by some.  That we need to stop burning them is also independent of their origin.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Abiotic_oil

http://peakoil.com/geology/abiogenic-oil-is-it-the-end-of-peak-oil-fears

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/727

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #336 on: August 15, 2015, 05:37:19 PM »
JimD
I believe the question of abiotic fuel was definitively solved earlier this year off Salvard.


http://www.unh.edu/news/releases/2015/03/bp30gashydrate.cfm


http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2015041418100008.html


http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2015/03/27/G36440.1.full.pdf+html?ijkey=tNRcKxKHNcG5s&keytype=ref&siteid=gsgeology


ABSTRACT Biotic gas generation from the degradation of organic carbon in marine sediments supplies and maintains gas hydrates throughout the world’s oceans. In nascent, ultraslow-spreading ocean basins, methane generation can also be abiotic, occurring during the high-temperature (>200 °C) serpentinization of ultramafic rocks. Here, we report on the evolution of a growing Arctic gas- and gas hydrate–charged sediment drift on oceanic crust in eastern Fram Strait, a tectonically controlled, deep-water gateway between the subpolar North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Ultraslow-spreading ridges between northwest Svalbard and northeast Greenland permit the sustained interaction of a mid-ocean ridge transform fault and developing sediment drift, on both young (<10 Ma) and old (>10 Ma) oceanic crust, since the late Miocene. Geophysical data image the gas-charged drift and crustal structure and constrain the timing of a major 30 km lateral displacement of the drift across the Molloy transform fault. We describe the buildup of a 2 m.y., long-lived gas hydrate– and free gas–charged drift system on young oceanic crust that may be fed and maintained by a dominantly abiotic methane source. Ultraslow-spreading, sedimented ridge flanks represent a previously unrecognized carbon reservoir for abiotic methane that could supply and maintain deep-water methane hydrate systems throughout the Arctic.


To my mind it's like cannibalism. You are either a cannibal or not a cannibal, can't have it both ways.


http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2010/02/thinking-about-the-unthinkable/

But the discovery has more benefits. The degree of accuracy in finding oil is enhanced dramatically -- from 20 to 70 percent. Since drilling for oil and natural gas is a very expensive process, the cost picture will be radically altered for petroleum companies, and in the end probably for consumers as well.

If new well sites can now be located with 70% accuracy, the cost of exploration drops drastically, and at some point these savings will get passed on.
IIRC the latest Russian find in the Kara Sea is comparable to the Gulf of Mexico deposits.

When oil traded for ~$100/bl, and it appeared to be a finite resource the squabbles over who controlled it made perfect sense. At today's ~$40/bl, and the knowledge that wherever plate tectonics or asteroid blasts have thinned the crust (and left an impermeable cap in place), you will probably find gas or oil, the squabbles make far less sense.

As you point out, there are still very good reasons too leave much of it in the ground. Just not many reasons to care whose ground you leave it under.

The old saw is that we are always fighting yesterday's war, meaning that our offences and defences are maximised for whatever equipment they were fighting against previously. Should the present situation erupt we may find ourselves fighting over yesterday's commodity, a sad situation indeed.
Terry

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #337 on: August 15, 2015, 10:54:47 PM »
Terry

I guess we were talking past each other a bit.

You said abiotic "oil" in your first post.  I am still unaware of any substantial amount of oil having known to have been produced by abiotic means.  One can analyse oil deposits to determine their source materials.

Your following post details a what it says "may" be a geologic source for methane.  Not oil so we are talking about different things somewhat.  But this is also one of the few places this has been discovered and the amounts of gas are not significant in terms of the total global amounts.

But the real controversy regarding abiotic oil was related to claims that this supposed generation was fast enough to guarantee endless supplies would be available.  Any mechanism whether based upon organic sources or geologic processes is going to be very slow and thus any deposits can only be considered one time and not renewable in a human time frame.

But, of course, the main point not to lose track of is that we dare not burn what we already have in hand so it matters not whether oil/gas is renewable in the human sense or not.

In any case the methane issue is irrelevant to US strategic/military policy as they are far more concerned about crude oil supplies.  There are endless amounts of gas out there and of course the continental shelves are covered in methane clathrates.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #338 on: August 16, 2015, 11:05:07 PM »
JimD
I'd prepared a very long response to your last, then on reading it noticed that the whole thing was devoted to my argument in favor of abiotic fuels as opposed to the topic under discussion.
I'd followed events in the Ukraine to the exclusion of a year of Arctic Sea Ice, a subject that has taken all of my spare time since 2011.
At first I had no idea who was telling the truth as both stories required that the other be lying. I'd had a similar experience when juggling WUWT and Neven's site in my earliest days of interest in global warming.
My prior experiences helped with the Ukraine research. One side, similar to Watts, was willing to include any information that made the other look bad, even if that information belied other information that was also accepted. The other was slightly more willing to include data that was either ambiguous, or was detrimental to their story.
I was horrified when I came to the conclusion that the Russians, to a great extent, were telling the truth, while the Kiev faction were lying through their teeth.


My peers are convinced that Putin is the devil incarnate, and that any means of causing his removal would be a great boon for the world. I fear a great boom might be our final gift.


I don't know if Russia (and China), can stand against "The Empire". I'm not convinced that I'll be better off if they do. It would be nice to see the good guys win , just once.
Terry

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #339 on: August 17, 2015, 07:46:46 PM »
Terry,

Quote
....I don't know if Russia (and China), can stand against "The Empire". I'm not convinced that I'll be better off if they do. It would be nice to see the good guys win , just once.
Terry

I have yet to meet those guys.  Have you had the pleasure?

In the world I spent my professional life in there are no good guys.  There is power and the quest for it in order to secure one's (country's) security and to gain wealth (another leg of security).  In a zero sum world - and that is what kind of world we live in - that means there are going to be a few winners and a lot of losers.  We are NOT going to defeat Russia or China nor they us.  While we all (along with the minor power players and our/their allies) struggle to hold onto as much of the resources and power as possible, as this global civilizational ship slowly sinks, most of the weak will be eventually crushed.  And, of course, eventually most of the minor allies and power brokers in the world will follow the weak down that same path.  That is the way collapse works.  You just cannot save most of them.  We (our side) will also end up with a lot less, but someone(s) will remain standing at the bottom and odds are that it will be the strongest and most ruthless among us.  That is the story of history and life.  There is no reason to expect otherwise.

Those who hold onto the idea that we are eventually going to cooperate to solve our big problems, have social justice, educate all the worlds women, overcome cultural/racial/religious hatreds and biases, etc, etc, etc, just in time to avoid collapse are just fools.  Dangerous fools.  They think that by pushing every green BAU thing they can think of it will soften the collapse.  But the opposite is true as what they will do is run the train off the cliff at a much higher rate of speed (trying to maintain what we have now will just use up more of the finite resources) and make the crash much worse.  More suffering and death not less will be the result of their succumbing to their base human nature of avoiding hard facts and depending on miracles.   We have held this play lots of times in human history and we all know how it ends.  Their way is the method we have always followed and it just does not work.

I seldom meet anyone who I think highly of and the general human I find pretty hard to like or respect.  They are just too pigheaded and stupid.  So I will not mourn their passing as I figure they are getting what they deserve.  But I highly value the human race (I guess I am a bit biased) and I get furious with those dummies mentioned above when they are only capable of thinking selfishly and ignore the future.  But I have no doubt there will be a future and I have no doubt that the folks who live in it will be hard men and their supporters.  I would just like us for once to act a bit more intelligently and make the trip down a bit less lethal and brutal than it normally is.  If we figure out a way to do that maybe we evolve a little bit and get better humans next up cycle.  I guess that is my version of foolish hopes.

As an aside to the above you Canadians are one of the luckiest countries on Earth considering what is coming.  Your geographic location is one of the best on earth considering the eventual effects of climate change and no one threatens you strategically since you live under our wing.  As the US goes it will be thus for you.  If we make it you make it.  If we partially make it (the more likely outcome I think) then you will still end up in a relatively good place.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #340 on: August 18, 2015, 04:39:53 PM »
JimD


I have had the pleasure of meeting good guys - lots of them.
Perhaps your standards are higher than mine.


Any possibility of global co-operation re. global warming went out the window after the opposition got organized following the Montreal Protocols. What must follow will be the short, brutal, destruction of civilization. I strongly doubt that any entity we know of will be left standing.


If a "hot war" develops, and nukes fly, it's probably the end of our species. If not, our civilization ends, but individuals survive. Those beating the drums at an ever more feverish pace need to be silenced.


While I share your fondness for humanity, I'm not sure that I care too much how or when we bottom out, although later is always better 8>) We won't leave much for the future regardless & what we have used may be of some value as salvage. It will be easier to pull down some electrical wiring than to mine and smelt more copper. Besides, with the population implosion that I'm afraid is inevitable, our scrap will provide material for some generations going forward.


I don't see past collapses as comparable to what's coming, with the possible exception of Rapa Nui. The others AFAIK all had some neighboring culture to fall back on, at least on the fringes. We will have none of that. Our largest, wealthiest cultures are the most fragile. When they go their populations will sweep the others out of existence.


I live in a very fecund valley once settled by Mennonite farmers who even today rely little on modern accouterments. Unfortunately we're within a few days walk of Toronto. The local farmers have no history of defending their farms and granaries and would object strongly to anyone using force even in defence of their own foodstuffs.


Other farming methods increasingly rely on fuel, transportation, fertilization and now on non-replicating seeds. This can't survive even a severe downturn, let alone a collapse. Bruce and others have put a lot of sweat & thought into zero emissions farming, and this is huge. But without an army to secure the crops they will be lost. An army will of course eat the crops so it's hard to pick a winner here.


Others have envisaged sailing off and avoiding everyone in an attempt to remain alive. This may work on an individual family level, but it does nothing to prolong civilization. A hidden valley, Shangri La, hidden from strangers by impassable mountains, hidden from reality by melting glaciers and truculent weather.


I see no way out my friend. I see no reason to worry about how the exit is made, (but keep the bastards away from the button). Remember Einstein's admonition that WW IV will be fought with clubs and stones.


Terry

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #341 on: August 18, 2015, 07:06:56 PM »
Terry

Yes, individual good people I agree with.  I was more talking about the plural good guys as in large groups or countries.  In my experience once you get beyond a specific family it all goes out the window - but I have no direct experience with Amish or Mennonites either.

I do expect some nukes to fly eventually, but do not think it will reach the level of global winter and all that.  More likely between Pakistan and India than anywhere else and that would come when the region was deep into collapse with famine widespread and mass migrations underway.  The only way India keeps the Bangladeshi's out when the time comes is via genocide.  And that can easily lead to war.

I understand quite well the strong desire to hold collapse off as long as possible.  To me this is the worst catastrophe possible as it burns through so much more of the resources, kills off so much more of the sea life and animals, eliminates so much more of the forests, dramatically worsens top soil loss, completely depletes the fossil aquifers, dramatically worsens the eventual peak of climate changes effects, adds a huge additional amounts of industrial chemicals/poisons to the environment, likely triggers several  more tipping points on amplifying climate feedbacks, etc.  Thus the Earth ends up with a much lower carrying capacity and far fewer finite resources to rebuild from.  Thus the bottom of the collapse is far deeper than if we manage collapse (my desire - hopeless I know) or if we just collapse quickly. 

One way or another we are going to burn off a very large percentage of the population (if we don't manage decline - which 'would' allow us not to go through mass death processes) so if dragging collapse out as long as possible results in far more death and suffering - I am against that.  Just seems wrong to me to make that decision for those who would have no say in the matter.

I am 100% for early collapse as soon as possible.  I don't care how it happens either and will just take my chances.  I try very hard to leave out the emotions when looking at the data and trends.  Just where does it say we are going.  It says we are going down hard no matter what.

 I keep in mind an event which happened to me when I was a child.  Our entire family was in a station wagon coming down a very steep mountain road in Wyoming.  All the kids in the back and mom and dad in the front seat.  We lost the master brake cylinder.  It was like our collapse situation.  A wreck is coming and there is no avoiding it.  So do we wait as long as possible and end up leaving the road at the next switchback at a very high speed or do we wreck now to minimize damage?  This whole train of thought here did not go through my mind then - I figured it out later.  But it went though my father and mothers mind instantly and I know this because I was sitting right behind them listening to them calmly discuss the choices (discussed quickly I might add).  They quickly picked the biggest rock on the uphill side of the road, told us all to brace ourselves, and my father drove the car straight into the rock.  Everyone lived and it is pretty certain that the opposite choice would have had a different result.  I learned a lot from that day.  The biggest and most important thing was to not let fear rule your mind.  That is what I believe almost everyone is doing - letting fear cloud their thinking.

Einstein may be mostly right about WWIV though I am pretty sure there will be lots more than clubs and stones.  What I am more concerned about is WW V.  I would like to be quite a bit further back up the civilizational tree by then and well beyond basic technology.  War is never going away - or call it conflict if you like - but it does not stop and sometimes helps civilization grow.  I think (and I know some I correspond with elsewhere would really disagree with this) that we are slowly stepping up the civilizational ladder and, in general, we get to a higher level each time.  I expect the same to happen again.  We are not talking about the end of history or human progress.  All that is cyclical and we will be back again down the road of time a ways.  It is time to compost this effort and get ready for spring.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #342 on: August 18, 2015, 07:10:21 PM »
Sort of apropos.

Quote
....Lawrence Keeley, an anthropologist at the University of Illinois in Chicago, said that alongside Talheim and Asparn, this latest massacre discovery fits a pattern of common and murderous warfare. “The only reasonable interpretation of these cases, as here, is that a whole typically-sized Linear Pottery culture hamlet or small village was wiped out by killing the majority of its inhabitants and kidnapping the young women. This represents yet another nail in the coffin of those who have claimed that war was rare or ritualised or less awful in prehistory or, in this instance, the early Neolithic.”.


http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/aug/17/mass-grave-prehistoric-warfare-ancient-european-farming-community-neolithic
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bruce Steele

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #343 on: August 18, 2015, 07:36:38 PM »
Thanks Terry, I concur with everything you said above. It is a shame that the example set by the Mennonites or Amish isn't envied by a larger mass of moderns. I wish I had something more of a community goal rather than a rather iconoclast bent. I can say I have struggled with alternatives to modern farming but I don't think I can honestly say I have succeeded. This drought is a real challenge and a  reality check. The only success worth measure is the knowledge or skills that can be passed on to future generations and that demands a community or at least an apprentice to share ones knowledge with.
 If and when the hoards arrive there will be plenty of food here for the taking and I will let them at it I suppose. I will take some seeds, maybe small stock animals, simple tools and do my best to revert to the stone age. A hiding place and a good spring will be about all a non-violent soul could hope for under those conditions.
 I have met many good people , even in government, but most of them will need to be avoided should the ramparts fail. Just too many damn people for the renewable foodstuffs available sans ff.       

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #344 on: August 18, 2015, 11:01:39 PM »
I do not know if I should be happy or alarmed that highly educated people who are climate change literate here at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum feel that some part of humanity will be preserved in the bottle neck that we are rushing towards. My own feelings are that, between sea level rise, crop collapse, the natural response of nations/individuals to take what ever they can, loss of fresh water resources, melt downs at many nuclear power plants with the subsequent contamination, and just general heat stress as the carbon dioxide air mantle stays put for many decades will do away with pretty much all carbon based life and humans will be somewhere near the top of that extinct list.

The Earth is getting a major reboot, I suspect, and maybe something else will replace us and do greater things in the 3-4 billion years before our sun dies out. I wish any post collapse society the best but have little hope. Just glad I have no kids and am 64 years old.

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #345 on: August 18, 2015, 11:10:31 PM »
Others have envisaged sailing off and avoiding everyone in an attempt to remain alive. This may work on an individual family level, but it does nothing to prolong civilization. A hidden valley, Shangri La, hidden from strangers by impassable mountains, hidden from reality by melting glaciers and truculent weather.

The current civilisation is worthless, if collectively it is willing to damn its own children indefinitely.

Dunno that sailing off necessarily entails literally avoiding everyone, although no doubt one would aim to avoid large organised hostile groups clinging to the ideologies of the old world.

I think you're overestimating too the "seed" require from which to restart - how large was a typical tribe of hunter gatherers if you wind far enough back into human history? How unfeasible would it be to collect such together again post collapse?

Provided one is willing to accept total loss of existing civilisation for planning purposes - what makes such an objective impossible (setting aside the requirement for large amounts of luck)?

[EDIT] With the note I'm citing the small hunter gathered tribes as an example of low numbers communities, I personally regard agriculture in the primitive sense of the word as a key technology to fight to retain, ie the notion of domesticated plants and animals as improving the overall human condition if managed wisely.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2015, 11:18:02 PM by ccgwebmaster »

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #346 on: August 19, 2015, 01:26:59 AM »
Milret 2

While I guess it is technically/physically possible for us to screw things up that bad, from what I understand of what it would take to get there I just do not see it happening.

The prime reason for that conclusion is that I just don't think we can hold off deep collapse long enough to run everything into the ground far enough to make that happen.  Though the BAU folks I fight with all the time are going to try their best to see that it does.

From spending the better part of a decade digging into the details of every factor that I had time for that relates to over population, carrying capacity and climate change, my experiences running an organic farming operation and my career in the US govt I just cannot come up with making it past about 2050 before we experience collapse on a pretty much global basis.  I don't see that giving us enough time to completely collapse the global ecosystem sufficiently to wipe life out.  It is certain that we will diminish it hugely and us along with the rest of the animals.  But not completely.

I agree with Geer that collapse takes a long time from now (I say now because I think it is already underway) till we hit bottom.  I do not agree with his sort of stair step gradual decline which takes 2-300 years till bottom.  I think we will go a bit quicker than that, but he is one of the smartest guys in the room and I would not take a big bet on my opinion over his.  I think we have gradual collapse underway and we will see deeper local collapses (Greece, Ukraine, parts of the Middle East, etc) occurring from now till we hit the first big step down.  Some accidental and some triggered on purpose.  I think the first big step down comes mid-century as I said, but I think it will be a big one and pretty much wipe out this version of civilization in terms of widespread global trade, global level organizations, global internet, very complex industrial processes will only be a capability of a few of the strongest entities, the ability to feed anywhere near the 9+ billion projected by then will no longer exist (I actually have trouble thinking the feeding that many can last that long but it seems to fit the data), and other details which are of a similar scale and complexity.

I have actually stated here before that I do not think we ever make it to the 9+ billion the UN projects as we will have so many things unwinding in the next 25 years that global deaths will catch up to births before we get there. 

But none of this means to me the end of humanity or even of a significant level of civilization.  Many forms technology and pretty much all of the knowledge of how to get to and build our current technologies I am certain will survive the whole cycle.  There is both good and bad in that of course.  Even though we are significantly lowering global carrying capacity it would be so difficult to drop it below 500 million to 1 billion (given our current knowledge of biology and the ability to grow food in ways our paleo ancestors could not do) that even if we mange to screw it up that bad it gives us the opportunity for another do over.

Time, of course, in a term of existence sense, is running out though.  We clearly will not make it work this time, but the next time might be close to the last opportunity.  But that is a problem for the future - if we make sure there is a future. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #347 on: August 19, 2015, 01:28:55 AM »

The current civilisation is worthless, if collectively it is willing to damn its own children indefinitely.

....

Damn straight!
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Milret2

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #348 on: August 19, 2015, 02:59:55 AM »
I thank you and do appreciate your reply JimD. I read the Druids blog often and enjoy it. Being a pessimist is hard but someone has to do it and I wear that mantle in my group of comrades 8).

oren

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #349 on: August 19, 2015, 01:52:17 PM »
Thanks for the excellent (as usual) discussion. I agree collapse will not be so deep as to wipe humanity out, with one caveat and that's the nuclear wildcard.
I can definietely foresee some nukes flying at some point of big desperation. But equally dangerous are all those nuclear power plants that must have a high level of maintenance to keep on functioning, and the nuclear waste that needs constant management. I can't really see how a collapsing civilization avoids multiple nuclear catastrophies, as I'm quite sure no one will do a managed shutdown of all nuclear plants and dismantling of all nuclear arms before the coming breakdown.