Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

Will the CO2 hit 400 ppm this year?

Yes
83 (75.5%)
No
27 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 240947 times)

maltose

  • New ice
  • Posts: 17
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Mauna Loa CO2
« on: February 26, 2013, 01:34:51 AM »
Hit 397.11 this past week...will update weekly. Will it hit the symbolic 400 ppm this year? The peak is in May.

maltose

  • New ice
  • Posts: 17
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2013, 02:32:35 AM »
Here is the data link:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

The historical record is at the bottom of the page.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2013, 08:55:34 AM »
Maybe not in the weekly data but it's almost certain to go over 400ppm on individual days which will be a seminal moment.

The Mauna Loa data is the perfect indicator of the problem we face. It's a single, simple number that everyone can understand. No complex models or algorithms and it integrates the impact that we're having on our world.

With the underlying science so clear I find it difficult to understand how society finds its message so easy to ignore.

Silkman
« Last Edit: February 26, 2013, 09:32:38 AM by Silkman »

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2013, 01:13:59 PM »
Seeing as we are told we are running a 3ppm a year how can we not find ourselves the wrong side of 400ppm? With European coal use still expanding and Asia still not running at capacity we would appear hell bent on trying to break this record figure (before we even think of natural feedbacks, like permafrost melt, adding in it's growing contribution)

Through twenty years of commited global discussions we have seen nothing but the continued increase in our emissions, why should this change without a massive, natural, forcing of the global community (and remember there are plenty of N.I.M.B.Y.'s who will need feel impacts first hand before they act).

I would imagine us well on our way to 450ppm before we see proper efforts to bring down levels and I fear that ,by then, it will be far to late.
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2013, 04:03:45 PM »
Seeing as we are told we are running a 3ppm a year

Who says over 3ppm a year? The data seems to show under 2ppm much more oftern than over 3.

Average since 2000 1.97
Average since 2006 2.00
Average since 2008 2.03
Average last 2.5 years 2.10

So the increase seems near 2ppm per annum and not changing much.

While last 3 weeks the annual increase has been 4.54, 3.43, 2.44 there are a lot more under 2 than over 3.


Last years increase from late feb to maximum was 2.4 which from 397.11 would not be enough. However the increases in previous years:

2007 2.53
2008 3.45
2009 2.76
2010 4.12
2011 3.24

suggest 3-all so it is probably near 50% probability.

Not sure if the 2.44 for last year and the recent 4.54 might be suggesting these reading are overstated and the rise will not be as much as usual or if they indicate recent rate of rise may be high. I would tend to go with the former given the slow rate of change of the averages.

There wasn't a poll choice to indicate 45% probability so I picked no.

gfwellman

  • New ice
  • Posts: 85
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2013, 08:32:02 PM »
My logic was about the same as crandles - less than 50% chance this year, 99% certainty next year.  So I voted "no".

Vaughn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2013, 06:51:36 AM »
The week of February 17 carbon dioxide was at 397.11 ppm.  Last year the increase was about 3.5 ppm from this date to the maximum.  If it increases as much as last year the highest daily readings  should exceed 401ppm slightly with the highest weekly averages just above 400ppm.  We shall see.
Vaughn

Artful Dodger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 453
  • The traps have got him, and that's all about it!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2013, 07:24:09 AM »
I also voted 'yes' in a coin-flip. But I find it much more intriguing that some Arctic sites reported 400 ppm CO2 last year!  :o
Cheers!
Lodger

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2013, 12:57:03 PM »
The week of February 17 carbon dioxide was at 397.11 ppm.  Last year the increase was about 3.5 ppm from this date to the maximum. 

I took 19th Feb 2012 as the equivalent date. Looks like you took 12th Feb 2012.

Lodger, CO2 levels are higher (or at least have higher amplitude swing) at higher latitudes so what is the intrigue?

Doomcomessoon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2013, 05:42:31 PM »
It seems to me like there is a correlation between ENSO and CO2 increase, therefore I think it is more than 50% likely we will see weekly measurements slightly above 400 this year.

Artful Dodger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 453
  • The traps have got him, and that's all about it!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2013, 01:25:24 AM »
Lodger, CO2 levels are higher (or at least have higher amplitude swing) at higher latitudes so what is the intrigue?
Intriguing: "Arouse the curiosity or interest of; fascinate."

Arctic amplification also results in a faster rise in atmospheric C02. What are the implications for thawing permafrost, methane metabolism, and annual cycle? What are the changes wrt. historic values?

In short, fascinating.
Cheers!
Lodger

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2013, 11:59:38 AM »
It seems to me like there is a correlation between ENSO and CO2 increase, therefore I think it is more than 50% likely we will see weekly measurements slightly above 400 this year.

Good point. Can I change my answer to more than 50% likely? (Though I have not investigated how much delay, if any, there is before CO2 responds to changes in ENSO.)

Lodger,
Fair enough. Implications are fascinating. Numbers themselves are as expected rather than anything suspicious or unusual. Good to clear that up.

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2013, 01:33:51 PM »
Crandles, Lodger, etc,

Arctic CO2 is already above 400 ppm in 2013.

Barrow, AK:

January, 2010, no readings above 400 ppm
January, 2011, 4 of 16 readings were above 400 ppm, highest was 403 ppm.
January, 2012, approximately 4 readings were above 400 ppm, highest was 405 ppm.
January-Feb 2013, Almost every data point ranged from 400-405 ppm.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

Alert, CA:

January, 2013, one data point available - above 400 ppm.

Ny-Aslund, Svalbard:

January-February 2013: All except one data point above 400 ppm, highest was 403 ppm.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=ZEP&program=ccgg&type=ts

Although I am not posting it, the METOP 2 IASI CO2 reveals that much larger areas are above 400 ppm on a daily basis.

It may take a year, but Hawaii will get there.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2013, 09:18:43 AM »
The February data has just been posted - 396.80 ppm.

http://co2now.org/

An interesting postscript has been added: "are you ready for a 400ppm world?"

It's already here in Barrow and it won't take long for Hawaii and the world to catch up :-[

Silkman
« Last Edit: March 06, 2013, 09:32:46 AM by Silkman »

Lynn Shwadchuck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 190
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2013, 06:04:03 PM »
Thanks, Silkman, for linking CO2.org. I'd never seen it.
Still living in the bush in eastern Ontario. Gave up on growing annual veggies. Too much drought.

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2013, 05:46:43 AM »
A new article is out on the ESRL official global CO2 reading:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/03/06/noaa-2012-saw-second-largest-rise-in-climate-emissions-on-record/

Also see:

2012 Rise In CO2 Levels Second-Highest In 54 Years
By SETH BORENSTEIN 03/05/13 03:45 PM ET EST

WASHINGTON — The amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air jumped dramatically in 2012, making it very unlikely that global warming can be limited to another 2 degrees as many global leaders have hoped, new federal figures show.

Scientists say the rise in CO2 reflects the world's economy revving up and burning more fossil fuels, especially in China.

Carbon dioxide levels jumped by 2.67 parts per million since 2011 to total just under 395 parts per million, says Pieter Tans, who leads the greenhouse gas measurement team for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

That's the second highest rise in carbon emissions since record-keeping began in 1959. The measurements are taken from air samples captured away from civilization near a volcano in Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

More coal-burning power plants, especially in the developing world, are the main reason emissions keep going up – even as they have declined in the U.S. and other places, in part through conservation and cleaner energy.

At the same time, plants and the world's oceans which normally absorb some carbon dioxide, last year took in less than they do on average, says John Reilly, co-director of Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. Plant and ocean absorption of carbon varies naturally year to year.

But, Tans tells The Associated Press the major factor is ever-rising fossil fuel burning: "It's just a testament to human influence being dominant."

Only 1998 had a bigger annual increase in carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas from human activity. That year, 2.93 parts per million of CO2 was added. From 2000 to 2010, the world averaged a yearly rise of just under 2 parts per million. Levels rose by less than 1 part per million in the 1960s.

In 2009, the world's nations agreed on a voluntary goal of limiting global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit over pre-industrial temperature levels. Since the mid-1800s temperatures haven already risen about 1.5 degrees. Current pollution trends translate to another 2.5 to 4.5 degrees of warming within the next several decades, Reilly says.

"The prospects of keeping climate change below that (2-degree goal) are fading away," Tans says.

Scientists track carbon pollution both by monitoring what comes out of factories and what winds up in the atmosphere. Both are rising at rates faster than worst-case scenarios that climate scientists used in their most recent international projections, according to Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann.

That means harmful effects of climate change will happen sooner, Mann says.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/05/2012-rise-in-co2-levels_n_2812708.html?utm_hp_ref=green

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2013, 09:15:46 AM »
Thank you very much!

The economic rat race has just added another 6% to the dangerous +350ppm blanket of CO2.

The biosphere now reflects the delayed consequences of emissions built up in the ninetees (IMO). Some aspects do not seem to follow the trend for atmospheric CO2 content (hence the recovery or stalling claims in the denialosphere). These delayed consequences seem to be tacitly at work in a reset of atmospheric and oceanic processes.
The palpable extreme events cooking out of this reset are FI changes in the characteristics of cyclones, enhanced droughts and rain, the marked start of GIS mass loss and the treshold decline of Arctic sea ice.

What could this 6% do? It will strengthen the ‘cookies’ that are already built-in to surprise us during 2013. It will be exciting but sad…

But maybe... 2013 will be another 'storage' year. I mean, in my opinion a lot of heat has been stored in the deeper ocean layers during the '10-'13 mainly Nina years. This could go on for some time and might even prohibit the crossing of the 400ppm deadline.

If it does, thank nature for it's incredible buffering capacity. Because manmade emissions won't stop. The coal-leveraged economic expansion in the emerging economies is as inevitable as the 'business-as-usual' approach in the cheap-energy dependent older industrialized economies.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2013, 09:20:55 PM »
Weekly value for week commencing 3 March is 397.3 which looks to be a record high. (Edit: The month data for Feb at 396.8 is also at a record high. Don't normally reach a record high in Feb.)

Pattern of movements of 4 out of last 6 years suggest we will pass 400 this year.

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2013, 04:25:05 PM »
Just a quick update from elsewhere:

Barrow's latest (Feb), 2013 Mk1 reading is about 401 ppm.

Alert's latest (Jan), 2013 is about 399.6 - the only one below 400 ppm to date in  2013.

Ny Aslund's latest (Feb), 2013 was about 405.3 ppm, with only 1 reading below 400 ppm to date in 2013.

All data is from: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2013, 04:33:25 PM »
To add two perspectives of CO2 distribution in the northern hemisphere, in relation to the Arctic, here are two images from the METOP 2/B IASI CO2 data. The scale is also attached.

Glenn Tamblyn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 128
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2013, 11:39:21 AM »
Compared to the Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere CO2 levels don't show as strong a seasonal signal. By the time you get to the South Pole there is essentially no seasonal signal. Not surprising, the seasonal signal reflects NH plant metabolism, particularly deciduous plants.

Also SH CO2 levels lag a couple of ppm or so behind the NH. Again not surprising. The NH is the much larger source of extra CO2 and inter-hemispheric mixing time in the atmosphere is around 1-2 years.

So, putting this together, Mauna Loa seems like a reasonable compromise location to produce an indicative global CO2 record. And the Mauna Loa record, with seasonal signal removed, is 1-2 years away from 400.

The best alternative, which is perhaps possible now, is to use the satellite data to produce a global average value.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2013, 11:56:10 AM »
The best alternative, which is perhaps possible now, is to use the satellite data to produce a global average value.

0.13ppm std deviation looks good enough to me:

The uncertainty in the global monthly mean is estimated using a
# a monte carlo technique that computes 100 globally-averaged time
# series, each time using a slightly different set of measurement
# records from the NOAA ESRL cooperative air sampling network.  The
# reported uncertainty, 0.13 ppm, is the mean of the standard deviations
# for each monthly mean using this technique.  Please see Conway et al.,
# 1994, JGR, vol. 99, no. D11. for a complete discussion.  Units are ppm.

ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_gl.txt

Ice Cool Kim

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 206
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2013, 07:48:30 PM »
Round numbers are always really exciting.

I remember thinking what an explosive event it would be when the calendar turned from 1999 to 2000 !!! Whey !  a new MILLENNIUM !

Then reality hit. Probably the most boring new year of my life.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2013, 08:50:43 AM »
Mauna Loa just hit a new all time high for weekly data - 397.46ppm for the week commencing 17 March. Will it exceed 400ppm by early May?


ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #24 on: March 25, 2013, 01:38:22 PM »
February 2013 vs February 2012 was 3.26 ppm higher.


Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #25 on: March 25, 2013, 01:46:14 PM »
Week of March 17, 2013 vs March 18 2012 was 2.68 ppm higher.

This last week's reading is already higher than the highest reading for 2012, on May 5, 2012.

The 10 year difference for this week is 20.97 ppm or 5.6% higher.


crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #26 on: March 25, 2013, 02:05:56 PM »
Movements of only 2 out of last 6 years now reach 400.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #27 on: March 25, 2013, 02:53:41 PM »
Maybe not this year but a massive new watershed is close and those of us who are concerned about the future and follow the canary in the cage that is the Arctic with trepidation need to use it to raise awareness of the threat.

Despite (or perhaps as a result of Kyoto, Copenhagen etc) the rate of of increase of CO2 continues to climb but we're still locking in further long term problems by investing in a burgeoning carbon economy, not just in the developing world but across the globe. Each new facility, including those being touted as more efficient, locks in carbon generation for the multi-decade period needed to generate a financial return on investment.

As reported above, 400ppm is already with us in the Arctic but Mauna Loa is the poster child.

We should do all we can to make it news when it hits 400 for a day, a week, a month, a year and when the autumn minimum remains above the line.

Jim Williams

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #28 on: March 25, 2013, 04:29:07 PM »
...need to use it to raise awareness of the threat.

Awareness will rise, or it will not.  It's too late to do anything but watch anyway -- by a good hundred years.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #29 on: March 25, 2013, 05:19:55 PM »
Jim

I have to disagree. AGW is locked in but I cannot simply sit back and watch. My youngest granddaughter will be my age in 2077. I owe it to her to do what little I can.

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #30 on: March 27, 2013, 02:13:21 PM »
I am interested in what the correlation might be between CO2 increases for Mauna Loa, Global and at Barrow might be in regard to ONI - El Nino - La Nina temperature change. My first gut is that their is/was a correlation between increase in ONI (El Nino) and annual increases in Mauna Loa and Global CO2.

I've attached the table of work to date. My assumption is that over time the correlation has changed, given that La Nina or ENSO neutral years still reflect a higher change in CO2.

If someone with better stats skills would like to tease this out, I'd appreciate it.

A4R

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #31 on: March 27, 2013, 03:58:23 PM »
=CORREL(H31:H63,C31:C63) = 0.712

Using positive ENSO years I get .686
Using negative ENSO years I get .765

But I don't know if that difference could arise by chance or if it really means anything.


I suspect you ought to

1. Use monthly data. (Unless you can find weekly data.)
2. Detrend and remove different seasonal pattern from each.
3. Check for different delay in response to ENSO and remove that.
4. Split data into different ENSO phases and check for different delays in different phases.
5. Calculate correlations for different ENSO phases.
6. Check whether any differences in correlations are significant.

But I am not an expert and process might be rather different than that.

Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2013, 02:19:07 PM »
Crandles,

Thnks for your post.

Your critique and comments were very helpful, I will have to get far more complex in matching the two cycles, and that will make a difference. I'll look for monthy and weekly data.

A4R

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2013, 03:05:19 PM »
I had a quick go (without detrending) with monthly data but the numbers I got were sufficiently weird I think I must have done something wrong.

global monthly data is available at
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html

There is also tab at top for Mauna Loa to get Mauna Loa monthly data.

I have pulled data into spreadsheet attached. Very strange figures for MEI between 0 and 0.5 so assume I have done something wrong where I have copied the data to sort it. Sorry if it is poorly labeled.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #34 on: April 01, 2013, 01:20:59 PM »
New weekly record high at Mauna Loa - 397.92ppm for the week of March 24.

Getting very close to 400!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html




Apocalypse4Real

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #35 on: April 02, 2013, 01:49:56 PM »
Crandles,

Thanks for the spreadsheet, and I have had a glance through. The reduplication of the data may have something to do with the results, but you have given me good ideas of how to approach this again when I have some time.

Right now I am focused on getting the methane data caught up.

A4R

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #36 on: April 07, 2013, 12:15:59 PM »
Some years ago I did a spreadsheet calculating that annual average CO2 at ML would hit 400 (+/-0.5) in 2015. A week ago I recalculated and it's still 2015.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 171
  • Likes Given: 305
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #37 on: April 07, 2013, 10:59:55 PM »
Chris, that does sound about right for annual average. What do your calculations say about monthly or weekly averages?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #38 on: April 10, 2013, 08:53:55 AM »
Above 398ppm for the last week in March. The weekly figures may well top 400 this year. If not, that watershed is guaranteed for 2014 with the monthly data not far behind. There's also a real likelihood of daily measurements of over 400 in the few weeks left to this year's maximum.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
« Last Edit: April 10, 2013, 09:00:02 AM by Silkman »

Mark Tough

  • New ice
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #39 on: April 10, 2013, 10:32:14 AM »
I'm No - marginally if it's a monthly figure but yes if it's a daily figure - an average for the year would be no. I haven't read the whole thread well enough to see if this has been defined but it does need definition.

This is our canary on a volcano - the best data set, the best AGW sentinel, the most evocative location and what should be the biggest headline on the front page of any (non-Murdoch) newspaper, anywhere and everywhere. When will the 400 be written in bold red print, when will this milestone of madness be reached. It would be good to agree...

Great, great blog, so keep on keeping on boys, girls and respect to the learned elders of this collective stream of thought who share with passion their passion and their fears for a future in a super carbon world.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #40 on: April 10, 2013, 12:38:13 PM »
The first post is by Maltose who is the poll creator. I took that post as indicating the weekly measurements.

Mark Tough

  • New ice
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #41 on: April 11, 2013, 03:08:05 AM »
Thanks Crandles - you are right.

Sometimes it's better to start at the top and work down.

Weekly it is - I'll go and bang some drums!

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #42 on: April 11, 2013, 12:38:37 PM »
31 March weekly number 398.08

Following path of only one of last 6 years would now reach 400 this year.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #43 on: April 11, 2013, 01:43:08 PM »
Wili,

I don't bother with monthly or weekly, it's lost when you average up to a year and because of the seasonal cycle it's the annual that counts. Will monthly/weekly hit 400 this year? I don't know.

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #44 on: April 18, 2013, 08:29:19 AM »
The monthly data for March has just been posted - 397.34ppm

http://co2now.org/


RaenorShine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2013, 10:38:43 AM »
Weekly data for April 14 has been posted, 398.41ppm.

The graph now has the 400 ppm on the axis, one day last week looks to have been at 399.5.

I think a daily reading may well go over 400 this year, but looking at the previous year I doubt the weekly will. Time will tell.

Artful Dodger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 453
  • The traps have got him, and that's all about it!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #46 on: April 23, 2013, 06:34:47 PM »
An annual peak CO2 for MLO over 398 ppm is remarkable. That virtually assures that the 2014 mean will be 398 ppm, and the 2015 mean will be 400 ppm. 2016 will see the annual min C02 level above 400.

The Anthropocene continues apace.
Cheers!
Lodger

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 111
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #47 on: April 24, 2013, 05:16:20 PM »
I'm confused here.

Recent ML is currently reported by noaa as 2.89ppm March 2012 to March 2013.  Global is reported as 2.93 Feb 2012 to Feb 2013.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html


Figures are nice but look at the global graph for 2012/13.  If that doesn't say it all, what does??

Every year it tails off... Except....


Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 551
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #48 on: April 24, 2013, 06:14:38 PM »
Piling on to the carbon dioxide tracking, daily readings of Mauna Loa are to be reported by Ralph Keeling. See here: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

A weekly plot--indeed, with hourly and daily average plots--is shown here:
http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_week.png

The 400 ppm milestone has been clearly devirginized, at least on a hourly basis.

EDIT: Oh yes, so, to sort of spoil the mystery of this thing, there's your poll answer.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2013, 06:20:55 PM by Deep Octopus »

Artful Dodger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 453
  • The traps have got him, and that's all about it!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #49 on: April 25, 2013, 03:38:32 AM »
A weekly plot--indeed, with hourly and daily average plots--is shown here:

Hi, D.O.

Thanks, let's get that chart into the permanent record. I've highlighted the 5 daily averages plotted on the chart, and drawn in the 400 ppm line, in RED.

It's pretty clear that none of the daily averages exceeded 400 ppm yet. But peak MLO CO2 usually occurs about 2 weeks from now, so let's keep watch.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2013, 03:43:42 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger