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Will the CO2 hit 400 ppm this year?

Yes
83 (75.5%)
No
27 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 240905 times)

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #100 on: May 26, 2013, 04:04:56 PM »
I see the ESRL Mauna Loa site has the latest weekly average up..

19 May at 399.91

and daily numbers of

May 25 - 399.97  May 24 - 399.84   May 23 - 399.67
May 22 - 399.97  May 21 - 399.74

so they will not hit a weekly average of 400 this year as the numbers will start coming down now as we have hit the yearly peak.  Awesomely high numbers.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #101 on: May 28, 2013, 08:11:56 AM »
Week ending May 26 - over 400ppm?

http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_week.png

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #102 on: May 28, 2013, 08:31:10 AM »
Week ending May 26 - over 400ppm?
Hi Silkman,

It'll be close, but I think that the bluemoon 7 day reporting period ending May 26 just squeaks past 400 ppm.

However, it's clear that 2013 will have a very late date for peak annual C02 at MLO:


This chart will tell the tale. It already looks close for the last charted week. And it's omnious that peak CO2 is up 5.5 ppm in 2 years.

« Last Edit: May 28, 2013, 08:41:18 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
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silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #103 on: May 28, 2013, 10:17:37 AM »
Hi Lodger

Up here on the edge of the Peak District in the North of England I've only just dead headed my daffodils! It's tempting to make a connection between a very late spring, a consequent late start to photosynthesis and a late peak to the CO2 cycle but that has to be very parochial thinking when considering a milestone on a global scale.

Silkman

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #104 on: May 28, 2013, 11:21:14 AM »
ESRL
May 26 - 400.59, May 25 - 399.97, May 24 - 399.84, May 23 - 399.67, May 22 - 399.97
399.74, 399.87, 399.77, 400.06, 400.15

Enough to put a 5 day average above 400 but not 6 or more day averages. Week commencing May 26th would be late - have to wait and see.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #105 on: May 28, 2013, 12:43:36 PM »
It's tempting to make a connection between a very late spring, a consequent late start to photosynthesis and a late peak to the CO2 cycle but that has to be very parochial thinking when considering a milestone on a global scale.
Hi Silkman,

Well, parochial to the Northern Hemisphere, at least. ;)

I made a similar prediction of a late date for peak CO2 upthread.
Cheers!
Lodger

Yuha

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #106 on: May 28, 2013, 08:11:24 PM »
If the week beginning on May 19 averaging 399.91 turns out to be the peak week, that would be perfectly normal. Since 2000 the peak week has been earlier seven times and later six times.

If the current week beginning on May 26 is the peak week, that would be unusual but not unprecedented. It was May 26 in 2002 and May 31 in 1992.


Jim

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #107 on: May 29, 2013, 12:11:53 PM »
Keeling Curve has reported the last 4 days (to 27th May) above 400ppm. The last 7 days have seen 4 days above and 3 days just below 400...

May 21st   ---   399.91
May 22nd  ---   399.85
May 23rd   ---   399.88
May 24th   ---   400.09
May 25th   ---   400.20
May 26th   ---   400.53
May 27th   ---   400.27

The average ppm for this 7 day period is 400.10

I did think we may have reached a peak last week, but the levels are still going up - when will it end  :)

Going with the 'late spring, late peak' idea this could lead to a sudden, rapid drop in CO2 levels as NH plant growth makes up for lost time after a cold start this year.

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #108 on: May 29, 2013, 12:20:40 PM »
...Going with the 'late spring, late peak' idea this could lead to a sudden, rapid drop in CO2 levels as NH plant growth makes up for lost time after a cold start this year.
That prediction seems very plausible. Go plants, go...

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #109 on: May 29, 2013, 07:05:28 PM »
From the NOAA ESRL site we have the numbers through the 26th (small revisions possible as always).  Their numbers are 26th 400.45,  25th 399.97, 24th 399.84, 23rd 399.88, 22nd 399.97, 21st 399.74, 20th 399.87

Average for the week is 399.96  just a rounding error from 400 and a little higher than last week.

It is really rare (after watching these numbers of a few years) how little variation there has been in the numbers for the last 2+ weeks.  I cannot remember ever seeing that before.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #110 on: May 30, 2013, 08:10:14 PM »
Latest Scripps reading is 400.33ppm for May 29th, the sixth consecutive measurement greater than 400.

The monthly Keeling Curve plot also now appears to be showing the last weekly average as above the 400ppm line but I haven't been able to locate the data to confirm this.

http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_month.png


deep octopus

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #111 on: May 31, 2013, 05:14:08 PM »
May 30th collapsed to 398.41 ppm. Either spring is finally making a dramatic impact in the northern hemisphere, or this is an extreme outlier on the low end (no daily readings this low since mid-April.) Given that this is way out of the trend of the last few weeks, I'm skeptical to think this number is going to hold.

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #112 on: May 31, 2013, 10:21:45 PM »
ESRL last 5 days
May 30 - 399.99, May 29 - 400.20, May 28 - 400.27, May 27 - 400.29, May 26 - 400.45 
average 400.24

May 30 might be revised but assuming not much then 31st and 1st need to average 399.4 or more for the weekly reading commencing 26th to be over 400.

May 25 - 399.97, May 24 - 399.84, May 23 - 399.67, May 22 - 399.97, May 21 - 399.74

So Week commencing 21st 399.99
Week commencing 22nd 400.07
Week commencing 23rd 400.10
Week commencing 24th 400.14

If that big fall is at all real, then there might only be those 3 figures (or even just 2 with a sizable downward revision) for weekly data that are above 400.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #113 on: June 02, 2013, 08:02:21 AM »
The peak one-week CO2 at MLO was over 400. That's bad enough, but realize too that if the current rate of increase holds, next year's peak week will be over 404 ppm.   ::)



Personally, without an International agreement in place and real monitoring and compliance efforts, I don't think the current trend will hold.

I think 2014 will be worse.
Cheers!
Lodger

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #114 on: June 02, 2013, 11:15:31 AM »
I think it is remarkable that the poll question of whether the ESRL weekly figure will go over 400 this year is still on a knife edge after all this time after the poll was set up. Just the next day of data to be released will almost certainly decide it. Going down to the last possible day's data is remarkable. Also being near a knife edge for that day is even more remarkable.

Target required is 399.2 for 1st June if I have calculated it correctly and there aren't any revisions.

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #115 on: June 02, 2013, 04:45:05 PM »
Crandles,

It now appears that the number required for the 2nd of June to hit 400 is 401.02 if my calcs are correct. 

ESRL numbers
27th   400.29
28th   400.27
29th   400.20
30th   399.99
31st   399.60
1st    398.65

this means that June 2 (the last day used to calculated the ERSL average) would have to be 401.02 to have an average of 400.   This will not happen.

So, the ESRL average got really close to 400 with numbers of 399.91 on the 19th and 399.92 on the 26th.  Since ESRL does not do running weekly averages by their way of counting the average did not hit 400.  But really close and only pertinent for the purpose of the original post of course (it was kind of fun watching every day).
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #116 on: June 02, 2013, 07:50:55 PM »

this means that June 2 (the last day used to calculated the ERSL average) would have to be 401.02 to have an average of 400.   This will not happen.

Don't think so, the week commencing 26 (which I make ends 1 June) is now shown:

2013   5  26  2013.3986    399.92  7

ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

Edit: D'oh, I see you said that.

Since ESRL does not do running weekly averages by their way of counting the average did not hit 400.  But really close and only pertinent for the purpose of the original post of course (it was kind of fun watching every day).

They don't show it hitting 400 this year. It may seem slightly odd, but next year they will show week commencing 25th May 2014 and its comparative week being 25th May 2013 which will show 400.11 having been reached in 2013. So they do calculate other running averages at later dates as necessary.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2013, 08:10:57 PM by crandles »

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #117 on: June 03, 2013, 03:11:29 PM »
Just when we thought it hadn't reached 400,

2013   5  26  2013.3986    400.03  7     

(June 1 adjusted to 399.38)

Can't get much closer than requiring an adjustment to put it over the 400 level.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #118 on: June 04, 2013, 06:39:47 AM »
Thanks to Tanada over at POForums for catching this:

"NOAA has done their weekly update, the week off May 26 is officially over 400 ppm. 400.03 to be precise.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html "
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #119 on: June 04, 2013, 11:15:48 PM »
Okay... so the seasonal uptake of CO2 was late this season...
Nevertheless, the signal is clear. Whether it's failing sinks or yet growing coal fuelled production, we're going the opposite direction. We just don't want to see the signs...

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #120 on: June 05, 2013, 04:17:30 AM »
Okay... so the seasonal uptake of CO2 was late this season...
Nevertheless, the signal is clear. Whether it's failing sinks or yet growing coal fuelled production, we're going the opposite direction. We just don't want to see the signs...
I sometimes wonder if natural feedbacks really start going - if there isn't a possibility that at some point there won't be a seasonal decrease in carbon dioxide - just a slower rate of increase?

I also think that as some carbon sinks become less effective (or even significant sources of carbon dioxide) that we might see less on the reduction side for this reason too.

Several years ago I concluded that if the reduction in carbon dioxide stopped happening (or even significantly flattened) it would be a rather unambiguous "oh shit" signal.

Anyway to get to the point - is there a case to be open to the possibility that the seasonal uptake will fade - and to be alert to shifting of that date, or reduction of the size of the annual drop in carbon dioxide? I firmly believe that past performance is an unsafe predictor for the future and one must be on the lookout for fundamental changes or transitions in the way the system operates...

icebgone

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #121 on: June 05, 2013, 04:30:27 AM »
A part of the delay is the flooding here in the U.S.A. which has postponed much of the spring planting west of the Mississippi River.  If they are unable to get the corn in the ground soon we will see a rapid and substantial reduction in per/acre yield for this year especially if winter decides to come early.  Within 50 miles of where I live the percentage of corn planted and growing is close to zero.  The fields are standing quagmires of mud and flooded creeks and ponds.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #122 on: June 05, 2013, 06:58:49 AM »
Flooding is taking its toll in Europe, too.

Quote
Climate chaos hits central Europe - 500 year floods.
Flooding rages on in parts of central Europe

    "The Danube River, which is one of three that join in Passau, rose to a level of 12.8 meters (42 feet) late on Monday, leaving much of the city under water. This is considerably higher that the worst flood in living memory, when the Danube in Passau reached 12.2 meters in 1954, and the worst the city has experienced in more than 500 years, according to Germany's DPA news agency."

http://www.dw.de/flooding-rages-on-in-parts-of-central-europe/a-16856840
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #123 on: June 07, 2013, 08:51:19 AM »
The preliminary monthly data for May is now in from both labs:

NOAA 399.77ppm

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

Scripps (via C02 Now) 399.89ppm

http://co2now.org/

Jim

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #124 on: June 10, 2013, 01:31:48 PM »
Well, I think it is now safe to state that the CO2 levels have peaked and are now on the usual spring/summer decline. Both ESRL and Keeling Curve (Both reporting results from Mauna Loa) have each recorded a one week average above 400ppm.

I fully expect next year's maximum levels to be well above 400 - perhaps for a whole month or even two! The levels are not only still rising, but the rate is accelerating.

If the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere is linked with global temperature, and if the temperature lags behind (Both, I think, are true), then this does not bode well for the future.

(What is worrying, is that much of the world is still in recession - when the global economy starts to grow again, then CO2 levels will surely rise even further. This is just storing up more problems for the climate in the mid to long term).
 :P

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #125 on: October 19, 2013, 01:33:19 AM »
I noticed that the Mauna Loa CO2 weekly average bottomed for this year on the last week of Sept.  After reviewing past data (about 25 years worth) one finds that the monthly average bottoms about half the time in Sept and half in Oct.  When the early bottoms have occurred in Sept in the past the Oct numbers have been very close to the Sept numbers.  This seems unlikely this time as the Oct 17 number of 393.84 is very close to the highest week average for Sept.  Thus seeming to imply that Oct's average will be significantly higher than Sept's.  Might we be looking at another big rise in the ppm concentration this year?

It will be interesting to watch the numbers this year.


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #126 on: October 19, 2013, 04:38:30 AM »
I fully expect next year's maximum levels to be well above 400 - perhaps for a whole month or even two! The levels are not only still rising, but the rate is accelerating.

[...]

(What is worrying, is that much of the world is still in recession - when the global economy starts to grow again, then CO2 levels will surely rise even further. This is just storing up more problems for the climate in the mid to long term).

There is another dimension to bear in mind - and that is that natural feedbacks may increasingly be acting to add carbon to the atmosphere (eg fires and biomass decay). Additionally major natural sinks (the ocean and forests) may in many cases be increasingly saturated/stressed and taking less carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere than we would have expected historically.

I expect that at some point those two factors will gradually lead to a substantial boost to rate of increase even without changes in human behaviour and worst case will overwhelm any improvements in human behaviour. The carbon dioxide concentration numbers are well worth watching for signs of positive feedback in my view.

ggelsrinc

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #127 on: October 19, 2013, 10:50:47 AM »
I fully expect next year's maximum levels to be well above 400 - perhaps for a whole month or even two! The levels are not only still rising, but the rate is accelerating.

[...]

(What is worrying, is that much of the world is still in recession - when the global economy starts to grow again, then CO2 levels will surely rise even further. This is just storing up more problems for the climate in the mid to long term).

There is another dimension to bear in mind - and that is that natural feedbacks may increasingly be acting to add carbon to the atmosphere (eg fires and biomass decay). Additionally major natural sinks (the ocean and forests) may in many cases be increasingly saturated/stressed and taking less carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere than we would have expected historically.

I expect that at some point those two factors will gradually lead to a substantial boost to rate of increase even without changes in human behaviour and worst case will overwhelm any improvements in human behaviour. The carbon dioxide concentration numbers are well worth watching for signs of positive feedback in my view.

What you said is nonsense, so think about it and try again!

Try the basics like CO2 is sequestered by life and volcanos replace about as much of what is sequestered! Life on Earth lives in a carbon balance and if mankind subtracting and not added the CO2 it has done, all life on Earth would be threatened.

I'm not saying our adding CO2 to the atmosphere is a good thing, because it isn't. I'm saying it isn't the disaster you proclaim and we still have time to fix the problem. Science needs warriors and not fake science created by our imagination. Science doesn't need people willing to strip to their underwear to wave the white flag, before the battle has started. It's a war and science needs simple accurate information so we can win this war. Wars have many battles and they are won by people who never give up.

If you think the human race is going quietly into that deep dark night, you don't know people. People will rage against the darkness. Even old people with one foot in the grave will not willingly leave such a legacy to their children. Science isn't my GOD, but I'm thankful for the work done by people like Charles David Keeling to acknowledge and thank him for his accomplishments, even if he is dead.

If you have a grain of intelligence left in you brain, never surrender and that comes from a poet who didn't know it!

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #128 on: October 19, 2013, 12:35:28 PM »
Quote
There is another dimension to bear in mind - and that is that natural feedbacks may increasingly be acting to add carbon to the atmosphere (eg fires and biomass decay). Additionally major natural sinks (the ocean and forests) may in many cases be increasingly saturated/stressed and taking less carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere than we would have expected historically.

I expect that at some point those two factors will gradually lead to a substantial boost to rate of increase even without changes in human behaviour and worst case will overwhelm any improvements in human behaviour. The carbon dioxide concentration numbers are well worth watching for signs of positive feedback in my view.

Well put. As the ocean gets warmer, less CO2 will be absorbed by it. And since about half of what we have emitted has been absorbed by the ocean, anything that other sinks eventually take out will be replaced by the ocean for some time. Right now, we have been emitting CO2 so quickly that the ocean has not yet caught up with what it can absorb. So we probably aren't at that tipping point yet. But the combination of ocean warming I mentioned plus any methane that starts to be released and absorbed by ocean waters could move us fairly rapidly to a point where the ocean no longer absorbs half our CO2 effluent.

On the biological side, one thing that is helping is the carbon balance is the increase in trees in the north, even as forests decline elsewhere. Unfortunately, trees in that region have a net warming effect because of albedo shift. So even if increased plant growth in the north is helping to keep CO2 levels from going up even faster than they otherwise would, they are helping to warm the very locations where there is the largest pool of ready-to-decay biological carbon on the planet--permafrost. Once this gets melting in earnest, it is not likely to stop till it's all gone, putting twice as much carbon into the atmosphere as is already there and insuring that other feedbacks (seabed methane hydrates, another enormous pool of carbon) already kick in (if they haven't already).

This is why so many climate scientists greeted the McDougal et al. paper last year about permafrost melt with words like, "Oh sh!t!"

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Macdougall.html

All that and more is why I think Kevin Anderson lays out more clearly than most scientists in the field exactly where we are and the level of action needed at this point to have any remotely glimmering hope of staying below critical thresholds (although, actually, since the McDougal paper, I'm inclined to think that even he is a bit optimistic).



Well worth the watch, if you have the time.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #129 on: October 19, 2013, 07:28:23 PM »
There is another dimension to bear in mind - and that is that natural feedbacks may increasingly be acting to add carbon to the atmosphere (eg fires and biomass decay). Additionally major natural sinks (the ocean and forests) may in many cases be increasingly saturated/stressed and taking less carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere than we would have expected historically.

Interestingly - the southern ocean, which I remember reading about several years ago in the context that it was thought to be becoming less effective at sinking carbon dioxide from the atmosphere appears to now be thought to be operating at normal levels.

That much would seem to be good news, albeit tempered by the increasing stress in major forest regions and the increasing certainty over carbon dioxide due to be released from permafrost - and the questions over the role shallow water submarine clathrates and non permafrost soil carbon may play.

And there are still things that could act to reduce the ability of the oceans to sink carbon dioxide (besides simple saturation, which I understand to be related to atmospheric concentrations anyway). For example reduction in thermohaline circulation (deep water formation in the southern ocean seems to be a major sink if I got the impression from a quick search on the matter), and increased stratification. I'm not sure if biomass loss should be added to that as presumably things dying in the sea mostly buries their carbon at the bottom (on human timescales)?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2013, 04:49:11 PM by ccgwebmaster »

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #130 on: November 06, 2013, 04:16:58 PM »
I wandered by the ESRL site for Mauna Loa today to see what is happening.

Last weeks reading was 2.88 above the same week last year and we are on pace to actually beat 2012's rise of 2.66 which was the 2nd highest all time to 1998 (2.93).  But it could be close and end up in 3rd place.  In any case the two year rise of 2012 & 2013 is going to be a record by a wide margin.

The daily levels of the last week correspond to the daily numbers last year that were recorded in mid-December.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bruce Steele

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #131 on: November 06, 2013, 07:18:48 PM »
JimD, there is a lot a variability in the rate of increase at Mona Loa due to changes in both carbon sinks and non-anthropogenic sources. Ccg hits on this in his previous post. Variability can be seen in the link below
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo_anngr.pdf
As it turns out there is a talk today at UCSB on a better way to quantify some of this variability.
Gotta go see this.

"Global Assessment of Carbon Export Using Satellite Observations:
New Approaches and Plans for the Future"

Presented by

Professor David Siegel



Abstract:
The biological carbon pump is thought to export anywhere from 4 to >12 Peta (10^15) gC each year from the surface ocean depth in the form of settling organic particles, and its functioning is crucial for the global carbon cycle. Assessments of the global export flux have either been through the empirical extrapolation of point measurements to global scales or the results of ocean system model experimentation. Satellites resolve relevant space and time scales, providing guidance to the empirical extrapolation problem, but they do not quantify directly carbon export.  Here, I introduce a mechanistic approach for assessing global carbon export by synthesizing modeling approaches with satellite observations. The resulting export flux model does an excellent job of reproducing regional export flux observations, and it reproduces the basic patterns of export both spatially and seasonally.  The talk concludes by introducing an on-going planning project for a major NASA field campaign on the quantification of the biological pump from satellite observations. 

Bio:
Professor David Siegel received a B.A. in Chemistry and a B.S. in Engineering Sciences from the University of California, San Diego and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Geological Sciences from the University of Southern California.  In 1989, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.  Since 1990, he has been on the faculty at University of California, Santa Barbara and is a Professor in the Department of Geography and Director of the Earth Research Institute.  Professor Siegel is a fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
    Professor Siegel’s research focuses on marine ecosystems and their functioning, using the tools of an applied physicist: radiative transfer and fluid mechanics.  His work specifically addresses the coupling of marine ecosystems and physical oceanographic processes by using circulation models, marine bio-optics, and satellite ocean color remote sensing. Using these tools, he has worked on a wide suite of problems, ranging from microbial and population diversity, open ocean biogeochemical cycling, and ocean bio-optics to kelp forest metapopulation dynamics, marine larval transport, and fisheries management. 

--

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #132 on: January 18, 2014, 05:28:29 AM »
The final numbers are in for 2013 for the ESRL CO2 data from Mauna Loa.

Turns out 2013 was the 5th highest one year rise on record at 2.44 ppm.

2012 was the 2nd highest at 2.66 ppm.

Together the 2 year span with a 5.10 increase was easily the largest 2 year increase in the record.

The week of Jan 5th had a one day reading of over 399 ppm.  Weekly average for that week was 398.06.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #133 on: January 20, 2014, 09:35:06 AM »
Mauna Loa shows an extreme CO2 daily outlier now: January 18 - 398.95 ppm.
It is getting extremely interesting (and progressively hapless) following the record this year.
Just think about it. Warmer ocean waters are less efficient in taking up the stuff. When a strong El Nino does kick in, it 'll reduce that capacity even more...

lanevn

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #134 on: February 14, 2014, 06:47:56 PM »
And since that time trend dramatically changed, at February 12, 2014 only 397.63 ppm. Maybe our ocean start acidifying more quickly, where else all that co2 could went in this time of year?

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #135 on: February 14, 2014, 08:00:55 PM »
2014   1  19  2014.0507    397.98  7           395.89    377.26    117.56
2014   1  26  2014.0699    397.79  7           395.59    377.89    117.20
2014   2   2  2014.0890    397.93  7           396.70    377.84    117.21

Differences to last year 2.1, 2.2 and 2.23 so all very consistent with last years pattern, though the difference has reduced from 2.73 3 weeks earlier than 19 Jan.

2013  12  29  2013.9932    397.40  7           394.67    376.36    117.60

lanevn

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #136 on: February 14, 2014, 09:05:11 PM »
I didn't mean that global yearly-average concentration will decrease soon, but the fact is that most of "additional" last year co2 just disappear in 3 weeks. There is many places where additional co2 can suddenly come from - permafrost, volcanos, hydrates, ocean. But not so many where it can so rapidly come to. Plants and ocean, anything else? Is it regular data of ocean pH somewhere?

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #137 on: February 14, 2014, 09:38:58 PM »
I didn't mean that global yearly-average concentration will decrease soon, but the fact is that most of "additional" last year co2 just disappear in 3 weeks. There is many places where additional co2 can suddenly come from - permafrost, volcanos, hydrates, ocean. But not so many where it can so rapidly come to. Plants and ocean, anything else? Is it regular data of ocean pH somewhere?

What disappearance?

 2013  12  15  2013.9548    397.23  7           394.40    376.30    117.95
  2013  12  22  2013.9740    397.28  7           394.71    376.20    117.73
  2013  12  29  2013.9932    397.40  7           394.67    376.36    117.60
  2014   1   5  2014.0123    398.08  7           395.67    376.34    118.05
  2014   1  12  2014.0315    397.66  7           395.55    376.98    117.42
  2014   1  19  2014.0507    397.98  7           395.89    377.26    117.56
  2014   1  26  2014.0699    397.79  7           395.59    377.89    117.20
  2014   2   2  2014.0890    397.93  7           396.70    377.84    117.21

The biggest fall I see is 0.42 in a week. Last year saw a fall of 0.3 just 2 weeks later. With the variability of the data, the rise from 397.4 to 397.66 two weeks later over a large representative area was probably more steady than a rapid rise to 398.08 then fall to 397.66.

"most of "additional" last year co2 just disappear" would seem to imply a fall of over 1ppm. Daily data is more variable of course but that doesn't mean each reading is an accurate representation of level over a large area. To me the data shows rises as is normal for this time of year.

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #138 on: February 14, 2014, 09:43:53 PM »
Another factor which relates to 'flat' spots, so to speak is where one is in the seasons.  CO2 rise is not continuous but fluctuates with the seasons.  It rises and falls.  Since there is a big difference in land areas between hemispheres one does not see a steady rise. 

Note on the ESRL page that they have another graph that shows specifically the up and down pattern each year laid over by the yearly rise line.  That demonstrates it very clearly.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #139 on: March 01, 2014, 02:31:06 PM »
Seems we had our first readings above 400 ppm on February 26. Too bad we were down on February 27. Attached are the MLO readings for the week ending 022614.

By the way, globally the IASI imagery is showing wide areas above 420 ppm. I have posted on this at: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

Crandles, where did you get your MLO CO2 readings data for 2014?
« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 03:56:27 PM by Apocalypse4Real »

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #140 on: March 01, 2014, 04:13:55 PM »
AFR

I think Crandles uses the ESRL site (at least he has in the past when we were exchanging numbers).

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

An interesting note on their weekly numbers.  For the years I have been checking the ESRL site the last 8 weeks have shown the greatest fluctuation from the long term trend line.  I don't have the numbers (or I guess I am too lazy to look them up) on what happened to the weekly numbers back in 1998 when the big El Nino hit but it makes me wonder if what we are seeing today also happened then.  In any case what is happening now is either one of those big noise in the signal events which confuse people about the long term trend or it is an indicator of a large scale change occurring (thus my curiosity about what happened in 98).  Any ideas?
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #141 on: March 01, 2014, 08:26:44 PM »
Yes that is the link I was using. As well as monthly numbers there is a tab for weekly numbers which shows:

1998   1   4  1998.0096    365.26  7           362.91    350.21     85.32
  1998   1  11  1998.0288    365.19  7           362.85    350.19     85.08
  1998   1  18  1998.0479    365.04  7           363.41    350.60     84.77
  1998   1  25  1998.0671    365.24  6           363.16    350.78     84.83
  1998   2   1  1998.0863    365.83  7           363.42    351.68     85.26
  1998   2   8  1998.1055    365.52  7           364.24    351.32     84.80
  1998   2  15  1998.1247    365.71  7           363.75    351.36     84.83
  1998   2  22  1998.1438    367.01  6           364.94    352.25     85.95
  1998   3   1  1998.1630    367.13  7           363.75

second week in feb was only up 1.28 on a year previous
3rd week in feb up 1.96 on a year previous

2014   1  19  2014.0507    397.98  7           395.89    377.26    117.57
  2014   1  26  2014.0699    397.79  7           395.59    377.89    117.23
  2014   2   2  2014.0890    397.93  7           396.70    377.84    117.25
  2014   2   9  2014.1082    397.78  7           396.52    378.80    116.99
  2014   2  16  2014.1274    398.04  7           397.15    377.44    117.14

second week in feb only up 1.26 on a year previous
third week in feb only up 0.89 on a year previous

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #142 on: March 01, 2014, 09:22:01 PM »
Thanks Crandles

Now I am even more curious about 1998 and now.

Over the span of your numbers for 1998 the rise over 8 weeks was only 1.87ppm.

Over the span of your numbers of 2014 the rise over 4 weeks is only 0.06ppm.

It makes one wonder if the 'apparent' flip underway right now to a 'strong' El Nino is seen in the numbers in some way (i.e. the same as in 1998's numbers and the huge El Nino which arrived shortly thereafter)???   Is there any physics that supports this or is it just some weird coincidence?
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #143 on: March 01, 2014, 09:52:38 PM »
Doesn't it depend on when exactly the el Nino starts?

El Nino affects temperatures which affects when plants think spring has arrived. (seems more like horticulture than physics :) )

monthly MEI
1997   -.491   -.607   -.254   .493   1.119   2.307   2.741   2.994   2.999   2.358   2.517   2.316
1998   2.481   2.777   2.748   2.673   2.169   1.129   .258   -.441   -.668   -.848   -1.171   -1.015

2013   .038   -.163   -.171   .009   .069   -.298   -.469   -.614   -.19   .094   -.093   -.312
2014   -.318

Are we looking for 2014 to be like 1997 rather than 1998?

Bruce Steele

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #144 on: March 01, 2014, 10:16:51 PM »
The other big El Nino 82-83 MEI index starts negative Jan. Feb. in 82' and shows up with positive numbers April -May just like the 97-98 event.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #145 on: March 06, 2014, 05:09:46 AM »
Taking a broader look than at MLO, METOP IASI globally measured CO2 hit 398 ppm at 945 mb on March 3, 2014, which is 3 ppm above last year on the same date same altitude. A lot of areas globally above 410 ppm. See:

http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/2014/03/global-mean-co2-hits-398-ppm-annual.html

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #146 on: March 06, 2014, 04:24:19 PM »
And at the same time the monthly and weekly data at Mauna Loa has been rising very slowly for this time of year.  The last 8 weeks of data is very unusual.  This is the time of year when the average weekly rise is the greatest during the year, but the last 2 months has been more typical of what is seen during the twice yearly transition from peak to valley.  After 8 weeks and it looks like at least one more of very slow rise it begs the question of what is different this season.  While it may be one of those correlation/causation  confusions it appears that the same thing happened when the 97-98 transition to El Nino conditions occurred.  It is very interesting and I am very curious what is going on. 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #147 on: March 06, 2014, 07:45:07 PM »
JimD,

In replay #128 of the El Nino thread in the Consequence folder, Bruce Steele provides the following excellent explanation:

"The different Co2 content of the upwelled or  downwelled water is due to it's different sources. The intermediate water upwelled under normal conditions in the eastern equatorial pacific is older water that has accumulated Co2 due to bacterial decomposition of organic matter. Organic matter is
ballasted by calcium carbonate and sinks till it hits the saturation horizon which is at intermediate depths in the pacific. Once the calcium carbonate dissolves the organic surface supplied material is remineralized by bacteria.  The warm water in the graphs above are downwelled in the western pacific. These waters are much younger and haven't spent much time at depth so they don't have the high Co2 content.
 Under normal conditions the eastern equatorial pacific contributes about 72% of all oceanic Co2 ventilation. When the warm western supplied water is pushed to the surface by the Kelvin wave is suppresses the cold high Co2 water and because the cold water no longer has surface contact with the atmosphere it stops ventilating. So the immediate effects of an El Nino are a reduction in natural supplies of oceanic derived Co2 but later as drought and terrestrial  conditions increase the terrestrial supplies of Co2 dominate.

    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel1868/feel1868.shtml
"
Therefore, the Mauna Loa C02 readings can be seen as clear evidence that the Eastern Pacific cold water upwelling is dropping off, and that we are in the process of changing to El Nino conditions.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #148 on: March 06, 2014, 08:05:18 PM »
ASLR

Presuming that the mechanism pointed out by Bruce and yourself is the driver of the current Mauna Loa data and then comparing the current situation to what happened in 97-98 (as provided by Crandles above) one would be tempted to say the Mauna Loa data is indicating a likelihood of a strong El Nino occurring.

Do you know if the ENSO prognosticators from NOAA and other such places use the CO2 data as part of their calculations?  It would seem to be an alternate or supplementing methodology which could be useful as it would provide an excellent view of the total Pacific situation which cannot be provided by the limited number of bouys.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #149 on: March 06, 2014, 10:47:04 PM »
JimD,

I am not aware of NOAA formally using CO2 as a prognosticator for a strong El Nino, although I am very sure that NOAA is well aware of the influence of ENSO on CO2 emissions from the Eastern Pacific.  Also, I assume that most ocean buoy measurement used by NOAA come from the Argo buoy network, as the following links shows is robust:

http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argo_(oceanography)

Possibly in the future NOAA will add this CO2 metrics in their tool box, but we should remember that since the ENSO mechanism has be understood we have only had two Super El Nino events, but if we have a super in 2014-2015 this may impact NOAA's thinking.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson