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Will the CO2 hit 400 ppm this year?

Yes
83 (75.5%)
No
27 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 243100 times)

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #200 on: April 11, 2014, 10:28:53 AM »
tried to make the CO2 increase speed graph more linear by taking ENSO into account, I do not anymore remeber what ENSO index I copied in 2009... looks like 1991-1995 does not fit in the general correlation at all. It could be a response to some human activities (or rather the lack of them ) in eastern (why not also western) block after the cold war before the rise of India and China to global prominence, but not sure. Also, Pinatubo eruption occurred here, but I don't see how it would effect this much or at all. Otherwise the increase looks rather linear.

Note that I didn't check if the 12 month move of enso index gives the best correlation, it could be more or less. also it seems like i should update my enso related files...

Wikipedia notes of the depression of Post-Soviet times, in their newly found freedom people started drinking and male life expectancy fell 6 years and it's estimated that the depression caused half the damage of World War One or more than Great Depression of 1930s in the USA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_economy_since_fall_of_Soviet_Union.PNG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_male_life_expectancy.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Russia_(1992%E2%80%93present)#Depression

Effects have been partly or mostly been corrected under President Putin, so it's not surprising he keeps getting elected.

(modified), oops, made a slight error, but the general image looks still quite the same so I'm not going to update.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2014, 04:24:59 PM by Pmt111500 »
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silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #201 on: April 11, 2014, 11:18:40 AM »
It's sounds as though it's going to be an interesting ride!

As a follower and occasional poster on this Forum the creativity and insight that's starting to emerge from the efforts of many is impressive.

I hope a few of the folk in a position to influence the political agenda come here to get a feel for the risks they are running every day we continue this uncontrolled geo-engineering of our planet through carbon emissions.

The Heartland Institute is now using the phrase "CO2 enrichment". Incredible!

Jim Hunt

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #202 on: April 12, 2014, 04:38:55 PM »
ESRL now says April 7th reading was 402.03
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #203 on: April 13, 2014, 02:55:48 PM »
2014   4   6  2014.2616    401.15  7           397.67

First week above 401, highest weekly number on record and 3.48 ppm above 1 year ago.

ENSO effects showing up? Possibly but perhaps more likely just some variability with daily numbers declining rapidly from 402.03 to 400.38:

April 12 - 400.38
April 11 - 400.62
April 10 - 400.81
April 09 - 401.53
April 08 - 401.44

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #204 on: April 15, 2014, 10:30:40 AM »
Ok, fixed the two month error in the previous image, expanded the ENSO record to present and re-did the image. Inserted possible anthropogenic/natural predictors on various parts of the graph...

the funny part of this is that if this assumed relationship of ENSO phase and speed of CO2 rise holds, one might be able to predict the speed of CO2 rise about 18 months in advance, if one had planned economy (soviet-style). Currently this is not possible.
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werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #205 on: April 15, 2014, 10:40:56 AM »
Thanks, Pmt,

"Natural sinks going down?"  I think that's very possible. As I've suggested some days ago elsewhere, part may be several countries phasing off nuclear (and retreating to coal/browncoal), part may be feedbacks kicking in. Warming oceans... one could hold that El Nino has a natural component. Against that it can be held that ENSO is progressively changing under the relentless forcing.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #206 on: April 15, 2014, 12:06:15 PM »
2003-2008 wobbles could be related to the so called http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_energy_crisis

funnily this wobbliness ended when the subprime crisis started. someone might claim the reason for subprime crisis was insufficient subsidies to oil industry ;), or maybe to renewable energy production, or maybe someone just grabbed something or something else, I don't know enough of the economy. Tried for a while to find monthly values for: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_industrial_production or similar to whole world to see if this correlates with the graph, but didn't find any values, maybe they could be found somewhere at the world bank, or elsewhere... Anyway I guess the record isn't full.

(modified): If the anthropogenic emissions are the sole reason for continued rise of CO2, one might also say from the graph that post-soviet depression-like effects to the whole world should start to decrease the CO2, unless the natural carbon sinks are at full capacity. So there could be some ways (though not too nice for most people) to start to decrease CO2-accumulation in the atmosphere.



This is too far off topic in this thread so I stop.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2014, 12:31:34 PM by Pmt111500 »
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JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #207 on: April 15, 2014, 04:14:21 PM »
(modified): If the anthropogenic emissions are the sole reason for continued rise of CO2, one might also say from the graph that post-soviet depression-like effects to the whole world should start to decrease the CO2, unless the natural carbon sinks are at full capacity. So there could be some ways (though not too nice for most people) to start to decrease CO2-accumulation in the atmosphere.



This is too far off topic in this thread so I stop.

Fits perfect in the Crash on Demand Topic though  ;D
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #208 on: April 15, 2014, 04:59:08 PM »
Pmt
Very interesting graph. I wonder if global GDP or GNP figures are available & how they would plot on your chart.
Another thought is that temperature anomalies north of 80 might indicate permafrost melting & the resultant escape of CO2.
I'm amazingly efficient at finding work for others to perform;>{


Terry

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #209 on: April 15, 2014, 05:35:00 PM »

Fits perfect in the Crash on Demand Topic though  ;D

I haven't followed discussion in the social aspects of this much so I wouldn't know what to write there.
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werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #210 on: April 15, 2014, 09:38:49 PM »
Highest daily reading until now:
Scripps        402.13
ESRL            402.39

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #211 on: April 16, 2014, 09:54:14 AM »
Note that the 12 month delay in CO2 speed-response to ENSO probably makes physical sense, biological world works in yearly cycles. Possibly the plants make the vascular system in the growing leaves according to ambient CO2 and as leaves stay the same (well of course they may wither and drop) for 12 months, any rise in ambient CO2 during a year is not responded immediately.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2014, 01:37:34 PM by Pmt111500 »
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JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #212 on: April 16, 2014, 05:35:54 PM »
Note that the 12 month delay in CO2 speed-response to ENSO probably makes physical sense, biological world works in yearly cycles. Possibly the plants make the vascular system in the growing leaves according to ambient CO2 and as leaves stay the same (well of course they may wither and drop) for 12 months, any rise in ambient CO2 during a year is not responded immediately.

Not sure about that. Perhaps there is another mechanism in play?  Note this report as it would seem to indicate almost immediate plant response to rising CO2.

Quote
...One of the most consistent effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on plants is an increase in the rate of photosynthetic carbon fixation by leaves. Across a range of FACE experiments, with a variety of plant species, growth of plants at elevated CO2 concentrations of 475–600 ppm increases leaf photosynthetic rates by an average of 40% (Ainsworth & Rogers 2007). Carbon dioxide concentrations are also important in regulating the openness of stomata, pores through which plants exchange gasses, with the external environment. Open stomata allow CO2 to diffuse into leaves for photosynthesis, but also provide a pathway for water to diffuse out of leaves. Plants therefore regulate the degree of stomatal opening (related to a measure known as stomatal conductance) as a compromise between the goals of maintaining high rates of photosynthesis and low rates of water loss. As CO2 concentrations increase, plants can maintain high photosynthetic rates with relatively low stomatal conductance. Across a variety of FACE experiments, growth under elevated CO2 decreases stomatal conductance of water by an average of 22% (Ainsworth & Rogers 2007). This would be expected to decrease overall plant water use, although the magnitude of the overall effect of CO2 will depend on how it affects other determinants of plant water use, such as plant size, morphology, and leaf temperature. Overall, FACE experiments show decreases in whole plant water use of 5–20% under elevated CO2. This in turn can have consequences for the hydrological cycle of entire ecosystems, with soil moisture levels and runoff both increasing under elevated CO2 (Leakey et al. 2009).

Since photosynthesis and stomatal behavior are central to plant carbon and water metabolism, growth of plants under elevated CO2 leads to a large variety of secondary effects on plant physiology. The availability of additional photosynthate enables most plants to grow faster under elevated CO2, with dry matter production in FACE experiments being increased on average by 17% for the aboveground, and more than 30% for the belowground, portions of plants (Ainsworth & Long 2005; de Graaff et al. 2006). This increased growth is also reflected in the harvestable yield of crops, with wheat, rice and soybean all showing increases in yield of 12–14% under elevated CO2 in FACE experiments (Ainsworth 2008; Long et al. 2006).

Elevated CO2 also leads to changes in the chemical composition of plant tissues. Due to increased photosynthetic activity, leaf nonstructural carbohydrates (sugars and starches) per unit leaf area increase on average by 30–40% under FACE elevated CO2 (Ainsworth 2008; Ainsworth & Long 2005). Leaf nitrogen concentrations in plant tissues typically decrease in FACE under elevated CO2, with nitrogen per unit leaf mass decreasing on average by 13% (Ainsworth & Long 2005). This decrease in tissue nitrogen is likely due to several factors: dilution of nitrogen from increased carbohydrate concentrations; decreased uptake of minerals from the soil, as stomatal conductance decreases and plants take up less water (Taub & Wang 2008); and decreases in the rate of assimilation of nitrate into organic compounds (Bloom et al. 2010).
....

http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/effects-of-rising-atmospheric-concentrations-of-carbon-13254108
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #213 on: April 16, 2014, 05:53:53 PM »
yep, that's what happens in the lab... or well maintained greenhouse, with no ecological restrictions on plant growth such as competion of other plants, nutrient availability and such... oops, you're talking of FACE experiments, that ensure higher CO2 near stomata than would naturally occur. This just proves that they can adjust their metabolic rate and is possibly not accounting the microclimate around the leaf. Is CO2 locally diminished in nature in the vicinity of a leaf so the adjustment of metabolic rate goes as easily down as up? there could be another mechanism though, yes.

this relationship has been known for quite a while it appears:
https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/handle/10036/48597
« Last Edit: April 16, 2014, 09:24:32 PM by Pmt111500 »
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #214 on: April 17, 2014, 02:36:45 AM »
Pmt111,

Is your chart in reply#194 posted anywhere on a website?

I was going through this same data this week noticing the same trend and wanted to create this.

However, it would be more efficient for a paper I am presenting Friday to cite yours. I need to footnote or cite a source - and would like to give you credit.

A4R

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #215 on: April 17, 2014, 06:06:05 AM »
Pmt111,

Is your chart in reply#194 posted anywhere on a website?

I was going through this same data this week noticing the same trend and wanted to create this.

However, it would be more efficient for a paper I am presenting Friday to cite yours. I need to footnote or cite a source - and would like to give you credit.

A4R

(site internal message sent)
thanks A4R, appreciated.
I've not posted it anywhere else, if that's what you mean. I made the basic image in #194 using the series at ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_gl.txt

, but the later images wrt require more explanations and hunting down a cite for one of the ENSO records used... sloppy in this respect.

btw, it appears wuwt also has a look-alike image, but given their record in using graphs, you'll have to hunt down the cite there yourself.

here you go:
« Last Edit: April 17, 2014, 07:02:47 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #216 on: April 18, 2014, 01:44:05 PM »
pmt111,

Many thanks, I have the data - but your graph is a terrific example of how CO2 rate of increase is accelerating for a general audience.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #217 on: April 18, 2014, 04:06:31 PM »
Terry wrote: "I wonder if global GDP or GNP figures are available & how they would plot on your chart."

This guy has plotted global GDP with the Keeling curve itself and finds a close match.

http://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2014/03/27/the-biophysics-of-civilization-money-energy-and-the-inevitability-of-collapse/
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JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #218 on: April 18, 2014, 06:02:15 PM »
wili

That is a most excellent find.  I am going to replicate your link over in the topic on the latest IPCC report as it is a clear refutation of their conclusions.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #219 on: April 18, 2014, 10:52:24 PM »
Terry wrote: "I wonder if global GDP or GNP figures are available & how they would plot on your chart."

This guy has plotted global GDP with the Keeling curve itself and finds a close match.

http://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2014/03/27/the-biophysics-of-civilization-money-energy-and-the-inevitability-of-collapse/

Video on this link is wonderful.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #220 on: April 19, 2014, 08:02:28 AM »
found values for yearly energy consumption of the world until 2012, I guess this roughly equals carbon emmissions, fossils still being the most used form of energy. http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=44&pid=44&aid=2&cid=regions&syid=1980&eyid=2012&unit=QBTU

there is *some* correlation to the figure in #204, but this frequently breaks down, most notably in 1994 and 2010. Again the delay in response seems to be around 12 months, which isn't excatly surprising giving the values for energy consumption are yearly  ;)

The 2010 diversion of the trend might be somewhat explained by the extensive wildfires and drought/heat dependent failures of crop in 2009 and 2010, but I guess not totally. This is getting a bit difficult statistically for me (using 4-5 semi-independent variables), so I might stop here for a while, maybe start a new thread if anything comes up.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2014, 09:17:39 AM by Pmt111500 »
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bosbas

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #221 on: April 21, 2014, 05:24:36 AM »
Latest weekly value up 4.01 ppm compared to a year ago. I can't remember having seen such a difference between years.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #222 on: April 21, 2014, 05:42:44 AM »
Latest weekly value up 4.01 ppm compared to a year ago. I can't remember having seen such a difference between years.

Could be a record, yes. Central Pacific warm water upwelling associated with the developing El Nino might be passing Hawaiji then?
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retiredbill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #223 on: April 23, 2014, 06:26:01 AM »
I'll ask this question here for want of a better thread:
 Is there a website which reports CO2 equivalents like NOAA's ESRL does for CO2?
I've seen 450 ppm mentioned but haven't had any success with Google finding a site.
Thanks, Bill

DrTskoul

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #224 on: April 23, 2014, 07:06:56 AM »
I'll ask this question here for want of a better thread:
 Is there a website which reports CO2 equivalents like NOAA's ESRL does for CO2?
I've seen 450 ppm mentioned but haven't had any success with Google finding a site.
Thanks, Bill

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #225 on: April 28, 2014, 06:03:43 AM »
Mauna Loa monthly CO2 average on track for 401.25 ppm for April, 2014.

Bosbas, the April 13, 2014 ESRL annual change of 4.01 is the six highest in the MLO/ESRL weekly average record. The higher change readings happened during the effects of El Nino, such as 1997-1998, which we have not yet experienced in 2014.

I anticipate a 402-403 ppm monthly average for May, 2014.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #226 on: April 30, 2014, 09:22:14 AM »
Well, it's official:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/april-becomes-first-month-with-co2-levels-above-400-ppm-17367

April Becomes 1st Month With CO2 Levels Above 400 PPM

Quote
“It's a bit like waves on a rising tide. As a long as we keep burning fossil fuels at current rates, the concentrations will keep rising like this,” Ralph Keeling, the scientists in charge of the Mauna Loa monitoring project, told Climate Central earlier this month. Keeling’s father, Charles Keeling, began the monitoring effort; the graph showing the rise in CO2 is known as the Keeling Curve, after him.

On reaching the April milestone, Ralph Keeling said, he remembers "when the concentrations were below 350 ppm" and that "it still feels a bit surreal now to be reporting concentrations over 400 ppm. Even though it was pretty much inevitable that we would get to this point, it still takes some getting used to."

CO2 concentrations will almost assuredly stay above 400 ppm through May and possibly June, dipping down below this level again in July, say scientists like Tans who monitor the measurements.

Tans expects the level to peak at around 402.5 ppm in May, before declining.

The 400-ppm mark will very likely be reached earlier next year, possibly in February, Tans previously told Climate Central.

After another year or so of buildup, CO2 levels could still be above 400 ppm in the fall and will eventually stay above that line for the entire year, Tans said.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #227 on: April 30, 2014, 02:22:35 PM »
Wili,

We will end up above 401 ppm. The averages for both Scripps and ESRL are well above 401, and the last two days of reporting will not change that.

We are still in an increasing rate of CO2 concentration in 2014 vs 2013.

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #228 on: May 02, 2014, 07:57:05 AM »
Out with a bang: April 30 - 402.44

Highest ESRL daily reading until now.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #229 on: May 02, 2014, 10:01:25 AM »
Still it may be that the 400 ppm limit won't get crossed for the whole year.
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crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #230 on: May 02, 2014, 12:38:28 PM »
Still it may be that the 400 ppm limit won't get crossed for the whole year.

It would be remarkable in the extreme if the average for 2014 was above 400. I think the average for Jan to Jun will get above 400 but only just and then the level will fall perhaps down to about 396 by Dec. There is no way that 3 or maybe 4 months above 400 and 8 or 9 months below is going to average above 400.

397.8
397.9
399.65
401.5 est
403 fairly high est
402.5 fairly high est
totals 2402.35

Dec[edit Sept or Oct] alone will almost certainly be more than 2.35 below 400
« Last Edit: May 02, 2014, 03:58:49 PM by crandles »

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #231 on: May 02, 2014, 01:04:22 PM »
Practically very right Crandles. On the hypothetical side; could an El Nino offer a surprise (a not so nice one...)?

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #232 on: May 02, 2014, 01:37:21 PM »
Ah, I see Scripps stating ' data too variable...'

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #233 on: May 02, 2014, 03:57:00 PM »
Ah, I see Scripps stating ' data too variable...'

May 01 - 403.28
April 30 - 402.44
April 29 - 401.76

does seem quite rapid but this time of year can see rapid rise.

Re El Nino, 12 month delay has been discussed above. While I expect it to take time for effects to spread around globe and full impacts on CO2 to arise, some effects wouldn't particularly surprise me.

Perhaps my fairly high est of 403 wasn't high enough but even if 403.5 or even 404 is reached for May, I still think I left enough room to conclude the annual average will almost certainly be below 400.

It should be Sept or Oct that is lowest month (not the Dec I previously stated). They were 393.51 and 393.66 and will be more than 2.35 below 400 unless the rate of increase is noticeably above 4ppm more in a year. I don't expect the effects of an El Nino to push rate of increase above 4ppm for rest of the year even if I do expect some effects that might briefly cause such an effect.

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #234 on: May 06, 2014, 02:56:40 PM »
Per ESRL:

April 2014:     401.30 ppm (398.35 LY so up 2.95)

Week beginning on April 27, 2014:     402.09 ppm (399.57 LY)


Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #235 on: May 14, 2014, 07:15:43 AM »
opinion piece in http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/13/1299196/-CO2eq

hope someone explains there we have mostly reliable measurements of CO2 back a very long time, to make comparisons of current situation. unlike methane. I think there's still not agreement if the ice core record of methane is reliable. thus we can't even be sure what role methane had on the last deglaciation. But if someone knows better please educate me.

  May 4 - 10 2014, 401.90 ppm
« Last Edit: May 14, 2014, 10:19:28 AM by Pmt111500 »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #236 on: May 22, 2014, 10:18:14 PM »
The attached graph (from NOAA, including Mauna Loa readings in red) gives a nice visual impression of how serious the rate of CO2 increase has been in the past two centuries
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Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #237 on: May 24, 2014, 11:07:57 PM »
The yearly peak seems to have been passed, so 2014 won't be the first over 400ppm.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #238 on: May 25, 2014, 05:12:06 AM »
The year will not be over 400 ppm, however we will likely have 2 months over an average of 400 ppm readings at MLO.

A4R.

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #239 on: May 25, 2014, 12:40:30 PM »
likely have 2 months over an average of 400 ppm readings at MLO.

likely??

all weeks in April and May so far have been over 401 so it is a virtual certainty we will have 2 months over 400.

3 Months above 400 looks likely, possibly even highly likely, to me: Last year June was 1.2 below the May value and this year's May value could well be over 401.2 (weekly values 401.9 and 401.79 so far), but looking back further previous June was only .95 below May and in 2011 the drop was only 0.5.


Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #240 on: June 02, 2014, 04:25:27 AM »
MLO CO2 definitely crashed through 401 ppm for a second month, and may be on track for June, 2014 to hold above 401 ppm as well.

The NOAA/ESRL preliminary MLO May, average is 401.86 ppm

The Scripps Keeling Curve preliminary MLO May average is 401.76 ppm.

I've posted more on the blog at: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

TerryM

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #241 on: June 02, 2014, 10:11:03 AM »
A4R
Any idea of the source of the 410+ readings in Antarctica?
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #242 on: June 03, 2014, 04:34:44 AM »
I certainly hope that fact that in the past (during the last deglaciation) deep water from the Southern Ocean vented large amounts of CO₂ into the atmosphere, has anything to do with these anomalously high Antarctic CO₂ concentrations:

Luke C. Skinner, Claire Waelbroeck, Adam E. Scrivner, and Stewart J. Fallon, (2014), "Radiocarbon evidence for alternating northern and southern sources of ventilation of the deep Atlantic carbon pool during the last deglaciation", PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1400668111, (March 31, 2014)



http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/03/27/1400668111.abstract

Significance: "This study sheds light on the mechanisms of deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and, more specifically, on the hypothesized role of a “bipolar seesaw” in deep Atlantic ventilation. Comparing new high-resolution radiocarbon reconstructions from the Northeast Atlantic with existing data from the Southern Ocean, we show that a bipolar ventilation seesaw did indeed operate during the last deglaciation. Whereas today the deep Atlantic’s carbon pool is “flushed” from the north by North Atlantic Deep Water export, it was flushed instead from the south during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, in time with sustained atmospheric CO2 rise."


Abstract: "Recent theories for glacial–interglacial climate transitions call on millennial climate perturbations that purged the deep sea of sequestered carbon dioxide via a “bipolar ventilation seesaw.” However, the viability of this hypothesis has been contested, and robust evidence in its support is lacking. Here we present a record of North Atlantic deep-water radiocarbon ventilation, which we compare with similar data from the Southern Ocean. A striking coherence in ventilation changes is found, with extremely high ventilation ages prevailing across the deep Atlantic during the last glacial period. The data also reveal two reversals in the ventilation gradient between the deep North Atlantic and Southern Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas. These coincided with periods of sustained atmospheric CO2 rise and appear to have been driven by enhanced ocean–atmosphere exchange, primarily in the Southern Ocean. These results confirm the operation of a bipolar ventilation seesaw during deglaciation and underline the contribution of abrupt regional climate anomalies to longer-term global climate transitions."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #243 on: June 03, 2014, 05:46:52 AM »
Per my first post in the "Risks and Challenges for RCMs of the Southern Ocean" in the Antarctic folder, see the following link:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=281.0

Carolyn Gramling, in the March 2013 issue of Science, speculates (and provides evidence that) a warming world, and accelerating circumpolar Antarctic winds, (both of which are occurring now) promotes the ventilation of CO2 from the deep water in the Southern Ocean.  If this is indeed happening now, it is not good news
« Last Edit: June 03, 2014, 02:39:21 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #244 on: June 03, 2014, 02:59:11 PM »
I extract the following information from a longer post in Reply #2 in the "Risk & Challenges for RCMs for the Southern Ocean" in the Antarctic folder, about MIT research which presents recent (2013) model findings (see the attached figure from the research) that indeed does show ventilation of CO2 from the Southern Ocean for conditions that we are now entering:

"A revised conveyor

For decades, a “conveyor belt” model, developed by paleoclimatologist Wallace Broecker, has served as a simple cartoon of ocean circulation. The diagram depicts warm water moving northward, plunging deep into the North Atlantic; then coursing south as cold water toward Antarctica; then back north again, where waters rise and warm in the North Pacific.

However, evidence has shown that waters rise to the surface not so much in the North Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean — a distinction that Marshall and Speer illustrate in their updated diagram, where the attached image shows a new schematic emphasizes the role of the Southern Ocean in the world’s ocean circulation. The upper regions of ocean circulation are fed predominantly by broad upwelling across surfaces at mid-depth over the main ocean basins (rising blue-green-yellow arrows). Upwelling to the ocean surface occurs mainly around Antarctica in the Southern Ocean (rising yellow-red arrows) with wind and eddies playing a central role. Image: John Marshall and Kevin Speer

Marshall says winds and eddies along the Southern Ocean drag deep waters — and any buried carbon — to the surface around Antarctica. He and Speer write that the updated diagram “brings the Southern Ocean to the forefront” of the global circulation system, highlighting its role as a powerful climate mediator.

Indeed, Marshall and Speer review evidence that the Southern Ocean may have had a part in thawing the planet out of the last Ice Age. While it’s unclear what caused Earth to warm initially, this warming may have driven surface wind patterns poleward, pulling up deep water and carbon — which would have been released into the atmosphere, further warming the climate."

If the CO2 in the Antarctic that A4R points to is related to this modified conveyor belt model of the oceans great currents, with increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, then: "Houston, we have a problem".
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #245 on: June 03, 2014, 03:13:13 PM »
I repost the following information from Reply #9 of the "Risks & Challenges of RCMs for the Southern Ocean", which cites the following references that indicate that increases in the Antarctic Westerlies (related both to the ozone hole and to increasing GHGs) interact with eddies in the Southern Ocean to increasing local upwelling, and associated ventilation of CO2 from deep waters in the Southern Ocean:


"Meredith, Michael P., Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Andrew McC. Hogg, Riccardo Farneti, 2012: Sensitivity of the Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean to Decadal Changes in Wind Forcing. J. Climate, 25, 99–110.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4204.1
Abstract
The sensitivity of the overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean to the recent decadal strengthening of the overlying winds is being discussed intensely, with some works attributing an inferred saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink to an intensification of the overturning circulation, while others have argued that this circulation is insensitive to changes in winds. Fundamental to reconciling these diverse views is to understand properly the role of eddies in counteracting the directly wind-forced changes in overturning. Here, the authors use novel theoretical considerations and fine-resolution ocean models to develop a new scaling for the sensitivity of eddy-induced mixing to changes in winds, and they demonstrate that changes in Southern Ocean overturning in response to recent and future changes in wind stress forcing are likely to be substantial, even in the presence of a decadally varying eddy field. This result has significant implications for the ocean’s role in the carbon cycle, and hence global climate.

Munday, David R., Helen L. Johnson, David P. Marshall, 2013: Eddy Saturation of Equilibrated Circumpolar Currents. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 507–532.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-095.1
Abstract
This study uses a sector configuration of an ocean general circulation model to examine the sensitivity of circumpolar transport and meridional overturning to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress and global diapycnal mixing. At eddy-permitting, and finer, resolution, the sensitivity of circumpolar transport to forcing magnitude is drastically reduced. At sufficiently high resolution, there is little or no sensitivity of circumpolar transport to wind stress, even in the limit of no wind. In contrast, the meridional overturning circulation continues to vary with Southern Ocean wind stress, but with reduced sensitivity in the limit of high wind stress. Both the circumpolar transport and meridional overturning continue to vary with diapycnal diffusivity at all model resolutions. The circumpolar transport becomes less sensitive to changes in diapycnal diffusivity at higher resolution, although sensitivity always remains. In contrast, the overturning circulation is more sensitive to change in diapycnal diffusivity when the resolution is high enough to permit mesoscale eddies.

Morrison, Adele K., Andrew McC. Hogg, 2013: On the Relationship between Southern Ocean Overturning and ACC Transport. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 140–148.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-057.1
Abstract
The eddy field in the Southern Ocean offsets the impact of strengthening winds on the meridional overturning circulation and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport. There is widespread belief that the sensitivities of the overturning and ACC transport are dynamically linked, with limitation of the ACC transport response implying limitation of the overturning response. Here, an idealized numerical model is employed to investigate the response of the large-scale circulation in the Southern Ocean to wind stress perturbations at eddy-permitting to eddy-resolving scales. Significant differences are observed between the sensitivities and the resolution dependence of the overturning and ACC transport, indicating that they are controlled by distinct dynamical mechanisms. The modeled overturning is significantly more sensitive to change than the ACC transport, with the possible implication that the Southern Ocean overturning may increase in response to future wind stress changes without measurable changes in the ACC transport. It is hypothesized that the dynamical distinction between the zonal and meridional transport sensitivities is derived from the depth dependence of the extent of cancellation between the Ekman and eddy-induced transports."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #246 on: June 04, 2014, 12:05:58 AM »
Just out of curiosity, does anyone else have any ideas as to how the average CO2 over Antarctica could exceed 410 ppm (see attached image from A4R's website) when the global average is only 401 ppm, besides the possibility that the Southern Ocean is venting CO2?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #247 on: June 04, 2014, 12:28:42 AM »
In the absence of an alternate theory, and as we are beginning to enter mid-Pliocene type conditions, I provide the following link to the Zhang et al (2013) research (with a free access pdf) providing clear evidence that as the westerly (circumpolar) winds moved poleward (towards the South Pole) as they currently are doing (due to the ozone hole and GHG increases), that the Southern Ocean vented large quantities of CO₂ into the mid-Pliocene atmosphere, less than 3 million years ago:

Zhongshi Zhang, Kerim H. Nisancioglu & Ulysses S. Ninnemann, (2013), "Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene", Nature Communications, Volume: 4, Article number: 1499, doi:10.1038/ncomms2521


http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v4/n2/full/ncomms2521.html

Abstract: "The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ13C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ13C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features."
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crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #248 on: June 04, 2014, 12:31:54 AM »


doesn't indicate it is normal.

land stations aren't showing those levels
eg
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=SPO&program=ccgg&type=ts

I think A4R measurements are well above ground but I don't know why there would be enhanced levels of CO2 at altitude compared to the ground.

Could ozone depletion or ozone depleting chemicals bias the satellite signal/interpretation in some way?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #249 on: June 04, 2014, 01:19:20 AM »
crandles,

Good question, as I do not know how accurate the satellite data that A4R presented is, but the ozone hole has been over the Antarctic for many years and this is the first time that such high readings have been evident, so I doubt that the ozone is creating a problem with the readings.

However, the attached NOAA CO2 flask measurements at the South Pole through February of 2014, shows readings around 393 ppm, which is close to your data.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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