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Will the CO2 hit 400 ppm this year?

Yes
83 (75.5%)
No
27 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 243095 times)

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #50 on: April 29, 2013, 06:55:56 AM »
Check the Blue Moon Co2 again, the April 25 daily measure was very close - above 399 ppm.

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #51 on: April 29, 2013, 07:23:59 PM »
Check the Blue Moon Co2 again, the April 25 daily measure was very close - above 399 ppm.

Yes but also see
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

Quote
2013   4  21  2013.3027    398.68  2

They only trust 2 readings in the last 7 days.

RaenorShine

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #52 on: April 29, 2013, 09:35:42 PM »
The Guardian in the UK has a story on this by John Vidal

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/apr/29/carbon-dioxide-concentration-record-levels

The 400ppm level is just a number (albeit a lot too high) but should get more mainstream media in the next couple of weeks.

Will it make any difference though? I doubt it.

frankendoodle

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #53 on: April 29, 2013, 11:09:04 PM »
I'm assuming the 400ppm level the poll mentioned is the Monthly Reading because Mauna Loa already passed 400 in hourly readings multiple times this month. My guess for weekly average for the week ending 4-28 will be 398.93+-0.10 and 398.5 +-0.30.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #54 on: May 02, 2013, 02:28:45 AM »
Latest recorded week average at Mauna Loa: 398.68, but as Crandle notes, that is based on only two day's worth of data.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

The daily and hourly data from the last week in April (presumably the title is supposed to read "Week Ending April 30" not "...May 30") suggests that the average for that week will be well above 399.

http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_week.png

But again, there is a large data gap from noon on the 26th to noon on the 29th.

Too bad that they are having such (instrument, I presume) problems at such a crucial moment.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #55 on: May 03, 2013, 01:50:55 PM »
Hourly and daily average continue to hover north of 399, so the next weekly average will certainly be in this range. We have one to two more weeks before the usual highest week, so a 400+ weekly average still seems very possible.

http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_week.png
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #56 on: May 06, 2013, 09:29:27 AM »
399.59ppm for the week of April 28.

And the monthly data for April is up - 398.35ppm.

Neat changes to the graphic representation on CO2 Now. Subtle but effective.

Is there time for a daily figure over 400 this year?

http://co2now.org/


crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #57 on: May 06, 2013, 12:37:54 PM »
Is there time for a daily figure over 400 this year?

It is still close enough to be possible. 3 of last 6 years movements would make it. However given the large rise over last 2 weeks:

2013   4  14  2013.2836    398.43  4
2013   4  21  2013.3027    398.94  7
2013   4  28  2013.3219    399.59  7   

That might suggest that it is slightly less than a 50% chance. (Though perhaps 2008 is the best match for a large increase in last 2 weeks of April and that went on to rise sufficiently further.)

They appear to have been able to increase the number of readings from 2 to 7. Redone the measurements? Perhaps that should make us more confident the increase is real and another 0.41 rise is possible. Seems pretty near a 50% possibility.


wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2013, 12:56:51 AM »
Is there an average date for the yearly peak? It looks like one happened on the 3rd at about 399.9, with a gradual lowering in the following couple days. But I know that this could just be random variation.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #59 on: May 08, 2013, 12:58:51 PM »
Is there an average date for the yearly peak? It looks like one happened on the 3rd at about 399.9, with a gradual lowering in the following couple days. But I know that this could just be random variation.

Using weekly you can see quite a variation. 2009 was as late as week commencing 24 May.
In 2007 it was as early as week commencing 15 April. However, 2007 seems a real outlier with most in second to fourth week of May. So typically somewhere around the 20th.


wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2013, 02:42:27 PM »
Thanks, c. That's pretty much what I figured, though it is interesting that it sometimes peaks that early.

In North America, at least, the spring is quite late, so land-plant uptake may be a bit later than normal, though I haven't been following the timing of spring in Eurasia this year.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #61 on: May 09, 2013, 12:11:25 AM »
We are close to over 400 for a day. Today was 399.71, but several readings after noon were above 401 ppm.

frankendoodle

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #62 on: May 09, 2013, 12:53:31 AM »
It looks likely we'll get a weekly reading of 400 ppm or above but outlook not so good for the May monthly average.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #63 on: May 09, 2013, 09:23:54 AM »
In North America, at least, the spring is quite late, so land-plant uptake may be a bit later than normal
Hi wili

It'd be interesting to know how the early start to the fire season affects peak C02 timing.
Cheers!
Lodger

ghoti

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #64 on: May 09, 2013, 08:13:29 PM »
Looks like 11 of 24 hourly average readings between May 7 12pm and May 8 12pm were above 400ppm.
I think the variation in readings is large enough that they avoided posting a daily average point.


deep octopus

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #65 on: May 10, 2013, 05:38:52 PM »
NOAA has officially etched in May 9th as the first day with an average above 400 ppm.

Quote
May 09 - 400.03

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

ritter

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #66 on: May 10, 2013, 05:47:54 PM »
NOAA has officially etched in May 9th as the first day with an average above 400 ppm.

Quote
May 09 - 400.03

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

So do we break out the champagne, gas up the car and go for a joyride? Or do we work on the bunker?

deep octopus

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #67 on: May 10, 2013, 05:56:06 PM »
NOAA has officially etched in May 9th as the first day with an average above 400 ppm.

Quote
May 09 - 400.03

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

So do we break out the champagne, gas up the car and go for a joyride? Or do we work on the bunker?

Heh. I suppose if one were a denier, your knee-jerk reaction would observe the 400, compare it to some instantaneous disaster like Y2K or the end of the Mayan calendar in 2012 (yes, someone actually did, for the record), decide "nothing bad happened", and then--out of reassurance--enjoy your drunken bacchanalia. For the rest of us with even an iota of an understanding of physics, this is bunker-building time.

RaenorShine

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #68 on: May 10, 2013, 06:04:08 PM »
Just seen this on The Guardian website also. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/10/carbon-dioxide-highest-level-greenhouse-gas

Includes a quote from Professor Ralph Keeling that answers your question nicely Ritter I think.

Quote
It is symbolic, a point to pause and think about where we have been and where we are going.  It's like turning 50: it's a wake up to what has been building up in front of us all along.

I think this will get quite a lot of media attention, not sure if it will make much difference, but will hopefully remind some people what we are doing to this planet.

ivica

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #69 on: May 10, 2013, 06:43:00 PM »
400 ppm reached this year, officially ? Uh!
I'm speechless but :'(

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #70 on: May 10, 2013, 07:50:02 PM »
Here is the Scripps and NOAA reporting comparison and instrumentation status for verification:

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/instrument-status/

Here is the live Earth Networks Mauna Loa information link:

http://ghg.earthnetworks.com/


Bruce Steele

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #71 on: May 10, 2013, 09:39:20 PM »
           This NOAA buoy has been over 400 ppm atmospheric for about a month.                                              http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/mapco2_plots/coastal/coastal_cce2-30days.png

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #72 on: May 11, 2013, 01:18:49 AM »
Bruce,

The bouy sits off the coast of the Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands off the coast near Los Angeles, California in a oil production area. It is known for higher readings, and Scripps Earth Network station often has higher readings in CA as well given area pollution.

Given the location, the readings will be higher than a general background reading such as Mauana Loa.

A4R



wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #73 on: May 11, 2013, 04:09:46 AM »
NPR just reported on the milestone. Has anyone else heard any MSM coverage?

On a separate note, up thread there was discussion of CO2 readings being higher in the Arctic. Is this primarily due to higher levels of methane in the area, since methane so rapidly oxidizes into CO2? Or is it because of melting permafrost yielding large quantities of carbon dioxide? Or other reasons?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #74 on: May 11, 2013, 04:14:51 AM »
A4R, CCE-2 also sits well located to monitor up-welling of North Pacific Intermediate Waters. Spring transition and the predominate northwest winds bring high Co2 (~ 700) waters to the surface. Ventilation of Co2 from Intermediate Waters may play a role in the atmospheric readings at CCE-2.   Mauna Loa was the right place for Dave Keeling to start his data-set and hat's off to any scientist maintaining a long term data-set. The dedication required to thrash through the 3year grant cycle, and keep going back to the money well is impressive in itself. To anyone out there putting together one more year of data , hat's off.  20 or 30 years .... Impressive... A lifetime 

deep octopus

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #75 on: May 11, 2013, 08:31:53 AM »
NPR just reported on the milestone. Has anyone else heard any MSM coverage?

A good amount, surprisingly. The New York Times has a cover story on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/science/earth/carbon-dioxide-level-passes-long-feared-milestone.html?hp

The Guardian had several articles surrounding the topic, and the Washington Post also dedicated a good amount of space and humility to the milestone. So fortunately, MSM coverage is gaining. But of course, the "#400ppm" trend on twitter was outlived by numerous, far more banal and meaningless topics. So that sucks.

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #76 on: May 11, 2013, 09:59:22 AM »
400ppm is a lead story with the BBC today. They've used an interesting tag line though. "CO2 in the atmosphere has reached a level never previously experienced by mankind". True, but hasn't that been the case for over a century!

The WUWT response is a classic.

Jim Pettit

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #77 on: May 11, 2013, 02:08:25 PM »
NPR just reported on the milestone. Has anyone else heard any MSM coverage?

Pleasantly, a lot of it--or at least more than the standard MSM reaction to a sciencey part of climate change:

CNN

UPI (united Press International)

ABC (US)

Los Angeles Times

Radio New Zealand

...and so on. What I find very encouraging about the articles I've seen is that--so far at least--there doesn't seem to be the normal headlong rush to provide "balance" by quoting the usual denialists--Watts, Goddard, Monckton, and so on*. Since I doubt newsroom editors suddenly changed their spots overnight, I'm going to assume the lack of false equivalence for now is because there's simply no way to refute that stark 400 ppm number. It's there, and it's real. It's not subject to interpretation; there are no extant peer-reviewed papers suggesting the 400 number is inaccurate for denialists to quote.

* - For instance, the ABC article is five pages long and quotes many experts--Mann, Trenberth, etc. Yet not a single Inhofe or Bastardi was given space to talk about how CO2 is great for one and all, how the scientists on Mauna Loa are socialists, and how doing anything about CO2 even if it really were that high would hurt Freedom And Liberty.

Refreshing.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #78 on: May 11, 2013, 06:26:14 PM »
Given the interest in the 400 ppm CO2 at Mauna Loa, I thought I'd do a full series of CO2 ppm from the METOP 2 IASI CO2 avg readings for May 9 2013 12-24 hrs. The images follow in several posts. The scale is attached first.

Any area readings above 414 ppm are bright yellow.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #79 on: May 11, 2013, 06:31:51 PM »
CO2 May 9 2013 pm avg for the southern hemisphere Pacific, Australia and Atlantic.

ppm readings above 414 ppm are bright yellow.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #80 on: May 11, 2013, 06:37:02 PM »
Finally here are the Arctic and Antarctic views

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #81 on: May 12, 2013, 03:20:05 AM »
On a separate note, up thread there was discussion of CO2 readings being higher in the Arctic. Is this primarily due to higher levels of methane in the area, since methane so rapidly oxidizes into CO2? Or is it because of melting permafrost yielding large quantities of carbon dioxide? Or other reasons?
Hi wili,

Other reasons. The short growing season, and late start are the main reasons.


Cheers!
Lodger

Vergent

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #82 on: May 12, 2013, 06:42:28 PM »
GOP reaction to 400ppm.

Jim Pettit

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #83 on: May 13, 2013, 05:11:09 PM »
The latest one-week Keeling graph shows the beginning of a pretty wild one-hour spike (401.5 ppm and climbing):



It'll be interesting to see how much higher, if any, the next set of hourly readings climb.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #84 on: May 14, 2013, 12:29:09 PM »
Thanks, AD.

The most recent weekly figure is down slightly from the previous one--399.52 vs. 399.58 iirc:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

That's still for the week of May 5, so we have another week or maybe two of further growth.

The spike the Jim pointed out has been followed by another gap in the data.

http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_week.png

Does anyone know if the 'sequester' is hampering the ability of these stations to keep up repairs, etc?
« Last Edit: May 14, 2013, 12:42:10 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #85 on: May 15, 2013, 05:29:07 AM »
Hi Wili,

Bluemoon data posted currently:

Last 5 days of daily average CO2
May 13 - 400.07
May 12 - 399.48
May 11 - 399.45
May 10 - 399.28
May 09 - 399.89

So the 5-day Average has gone up significantly. Will dropping May 10 data push a 7-day or the weekly average over 400?!

(queue  the drum roll...)

« Last Edit: May 17, 2013, 03:43:59 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #86 on: May 15, 2013, 09:56:55 PM »
The average from the most recent week may well exceed the previous two reported weeks, but it doesn't look like it is going to be above 400. That leaves next week as probably the last one that could break that weekly record. I'm kinda doubting it at this point. The leaves are really coming out, finally, here in MN, so I think the Northern Hemisphere CO2 uptake cycle is really about to go into full gear. I'm not sure what type of lag time there is for that signal to reach Mauna Loa.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #87 on: May 17, 2013, 02:24:48 AM »
The Scripps Institute May 13th CO2 daily average level has been re-assigned to 400.17ppm.
It had initially been deemed as too variable until the data from the 14th became available. See report here.

I think this is the first time that the Mauna Loa observatory has officially recorded a daily level above 400ppm.
Another sad milestone on our journey....  :(

Artful Dodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #88 on: May 17, 2013, 03:45:21 AM »
Let's get the May 13, 2013 bluemoon chart into the permanent record:

Cheers!
Lodger

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #89 on: May 17, 2013, 06:22:51 PM »
Sigh....
The Keeling Curve Twitter feed has just announced that the CO2 level for the 16th May was 400.27ppm!

Hopefully, this marks the high-tide mark this year, although we could still have another week yet before levels start to fall appreciably.

(Note: Weekly graph now updated)

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #90 on: May 17, 2013, 11:03:41 PM »
Sigh....
The Keeling Curve Twitter feed has just announced that the CO2 level for the 16th May was 400.27ppm!

Interesting.

ESRL reports last 5 days as
Quote
May 16 - 399.74   May 15 - 399.59   May 14 - 399.81   May 13 - 399.86   May 12 - 399.46
Daily average CO2 values are computed from selected hourly values that satisfy
'background' conditions, i.e. stability and persistence of CO2 concentrations (read
below for more information). These daily average values may change as a result of the selection
process as additional data become available.

Does this mean the two values of 400.07 and 400.27 are averages of raw data that don't show the necessary persistence and we still haven't got any daily readings above 400 after persistence selection?
« Last Edit: May 17, 2013, 11:09:27 PM by crandles »

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #91 on: May 18, 2013, 01:50:32 AM »
Hi Crandles,
No, it means that the Daily Average observations by the Scripps Institute of the Mauna Loa Observatory exceeded 400ppm on the 13th and the 16th May.
There are several CO2 measuring sites around the world and several agencies collating the results. These results are from one site, collated by one agency - others may report other figures, depending on the site and the methodology.
It is worth reading this to see why different agencies might report different numbers.

"May 10 Comment:
NOAA has reported 400.03 for May 9, 2013, while Scripps has reported 399.73. The difference partly reflects different reporting periods. NOAA uses UTC, whereas Scripps uses local time in Hawaii to define the 24-hr reporting period. If Scripps were to use same reporting period as NOAA, we would report 400.08 for May 9."
 

Jim

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #92 on: May 19, 2013, 12:56:20 AM »
Heck, when the poll was put up in February, I voted NO. I really didn't think the CO2 levels would quite reach 400ppm this year, perhaps next year, but not this.

Now, as reported from the Scripps Institute, we have had 3 days this week with levels in excess of 400ppm (17th May = 400.04ppm).

This is a bit more than I had guessed at in Feb, and seems to validate an acceleration in the levels, year by year.
Oh well....  ???

silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #93 on: May 20, 2013, 08:10:11 AM »
Don't forget there are two institutions reporting on Mauna Loa CO2.

NOAA data shows another record high for the week commencing 12th May at 399.71ppm - above 399ppm for the third week running.

ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

Jim

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #94 on: May 20, 2013, 11:42:48 AM »
Hi Silkman,
Yes, there are two agencies currnetly reporting on the Mauna Loa data, as I mentioned a couple of days ago. They can deliver different daily figures due to the time stamping used (Scripps uses local Hawaii time and NOAA uses UTC) and due to differing data selection criteria.

Due to the time-stamp differences, we don't yet have the weekly average figure from the Scripps Institute - this should come later today. NOAA (On UTC) have already finished with last weeks figures and have published their average of 399.71ppm.

Is this the peak, or do we have another week of rising levels to come?  :-\

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #95 on: May 21, 2013, 04:44:39 AM »
Four of the last 7 days were above 400, so we may have our first week with an average above 400, too!

http://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/co2_400/mlo_one_week.png
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JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #96 on: May 21, 2013, 06:14:35 PM »
At the Mauna Loa NOAA ESRL site they list May 16-20 as the following

399.74, 399.87, 399.77, 400.06, 400.15

Looks like they might just miss the 400 weekly average (not that missing it has any real meaning ultimately)
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wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #97 on: May 23, 2013, 04:05:46 AM »
Thanks, Jim. What's your link for those daily average numbers, exactly?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #98 on: May 23, 2013, 10:18:28 AM »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #99 on: May 26, 2013, 03:28:00 PM »
Mauna Loa Readings CO2

May 23 2013: 399.88 ppm

May 24 2013: 400.09 ppm

However, higher readings abound.