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Will the CO2 hit 400 ppm this year?

Yes
83 (75.5%)
No
27 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 240908 times)

opensheart

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #550 on: April 19, 2016, 06:53:45 PM »
Could the poll at the top of this Topic be changed to something like:

"Will we see a daily average below 400 PPM this year"


DoomInTheUK

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #551 on: April 19, 2016, 06:57:39 PM »
"Will we see a daily average below 400 PPM this year"

I'll opening the bidding with - very unlikely.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #552 on: April 19, 2016, 09:09:23 PM »
"Will we see a daily average below 400 PPM this year"

I'll opening the bidding with - very unlikely.

In the linked article, Ralph Keeling explains why he believes that the Mauna Loa CO₂ concentration will never fall below 400ppm in any of our lifetimes:

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2015/10/21/is-this-the-last-year-below-400/

Extract: "Will daily values at Mauna Loa ever fall below 400 ppm again in our lifetimes? I’m prepared to project that they won’t, …"
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Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #553 on: April 20, 2016, 05:50:20 AM »
Could the poll at the top of this Topic be changed to something like:

"Will we see a daily average below 400 PPM this year"



Or even better, make a whole new thread, Mauna Loa CO2 above 400 ppm, asking 'when do we cross 420 ppm for the first time?' I think this is pretty much unavoidable, at least I think our current government is doing its best to manage this the fastest time possible. I think they're thinking pests from southern Europe haven't got it easy enough yet.

On another news, there have been observations of jackals in Estonia and Denmark. Apparently they've managed to cross the East European plains in the last 25-30 years. http://www.mtv.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/artikkeli/sakaalit-leviamassa-pohjoiseen-ensimmaisia-havaintoja-tehty-jo-virossa-ja-tanskassa/5740170

and the wikipeedia distribution map is likely pretty much outdated. as the jackal resembles some breeds of dogs and readily mates with it, producing somewhat fertile offspring, the true distribution is hard to define in countries with wild dog populations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_jackal
« Last Edit: April 20, 2016, 06:12:44 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

sesyf

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #554 on: April 20, 2016, 09:57:40 AM »
I'm usually following the rather shorter than Mauna Loa developments in Pallas-Sammaltunturi measuring station in northern Finland. It seems that it took about 4 years for the average value to go from 390 to 400, 2010 to 2014, so the 420 mentioned above would happen with same rate near the 2022.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=PAL&program=ccgg&type=ts


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #555 on: April 21, 2016, 07:30:47 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 Leaps into Uncharted Territory: 408 ppm
writes Bob Henson on the Weather Underground blog.
Quote
...
“We are now witnessing the fastest growth rates of the entire record of CO2 measurements. This record-breaking growth is an expected consequence of the near record-breaking fossil fuel usage combined with the largest El Niño event in several decades.” said Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) in a Keeling Curve blog post on Wednesday. Keeling’s father, Charles David Keeling, launched the regular CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa in 1958. NOAA and Scripps now collaborate on the sampling, with slight differences in how they analyze and report the data. Scripps reported a daily value of 407.80 ppm on April 18 ....

It’s not clear exactly what has led to such a big surge in CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa during the past month. Industrial emissions don’t change quickly enough on a large enough scale to produce this big a spike. According to Keeling, “the levels last week were a bit higher, maybe by a part per million or two, than I would have projected even taking El Niño into account. I’m frankly not sure what is causing this, but I would not expect it reflects anything other than an unusual blob of air that temporarily settled over the central Pacific.”
...
Nothing to see here, folks, move along ???
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #556 on: April 25, 2016, 05:32:42 PM »
In the way of an update, the attached image shows Mauna Loa's one-year CO2 concentration plot through April 23 2016, showing that we remain above the BAU trend:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #557 on: April 25, 2016, 10:03:41 PM »
It does, ASLR, but it doesn't in Barrow. At least, not as much as around Mauna Loa at 3400 m asl. At sea level , Barrows trends about 2.5 ppm above last year.
Which is pretty much without the Mauna Loa spurt...

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #558 on: April 25, 2016, 10:29:59 PM »
Feb global measure was up 3.4 which is more than the typical annual increase

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #559 on: April 25, 2016, 10:42:44 PM »
It does, ASLR, but it doesn't in Barrow. At least, not as much as around Mauna Loa at 3400 m asl. At sea level , Barrows trends about 2.5 ppm above last year.
Which is pretty much without the Mauna Loa spurt...

werther,

Thanks for reminding everyone (including me) that CO2 concentrations are not uniform around the global.  I suspect that the current high CO2 concentrations are likely associated with El Nino-induced droughts in tropical rainforests, and particularly in Indonesia (which might help explain why the readings are higher in Hawaii than at Barrows).

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #560 on: April 26, 2016, 11:10:09 AM »
True they're not uniform, but CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere. The daily or weekly values may be a bit too fine grained in resolution, but the monthly average is better for giving the trend.

I would expect that if Mauna Loa is downwind from a CO2 outgassing, that it will remain with higher levels until the CO2 spurt has finished, or at least until the prevailing winds drop (thanks El Nino).

As with all of these things, it's easy to get too focused on single data points, and the human nature of liking nice round numbers. The trend is up, and appears to be increasing, but you can only ever see the real detail in the rear view mirror.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #561 on: April 26, 2016, 11:56:16 AM »
"downwind from a CO2 outgassing"

Where are you claiming this 'outgassing' is happening, exactly?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #562 on: April 26, 2016, 12:07:26 PM »
If Mauna Lao has higher levels than Barrow, then it's either because ML is downwind of a source, or Barrow is downwind of a sink.
With the warmer waters in the Pacific, land use changes in the Philippines/Malaysia and an El Nino in progress, I'd say it likely to be ML reading slightly higher.

We'll know better in a few months, and more likely by this time next year.

wili

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #563 on: April 26, 2016, 12:50:00 PM »
I think it may be more accurate to say that Mauna Loa is surrounded by a failing sink (but not quite yet a source...I hope!). As I understand it, (so far) El Nino's warmer waters in the Pacific aren't actually emitting CO2, just absorbing atmospheric CO2 at lower rates.

A subtle distinction, I know. Sorry to be pedantic about it.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2016, 01:04:01 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #564 on: April 26, 2016, 01:33:26 PM »
Very true Wili, good point. Science loves a pedant.  ;)

Without knowing what's changing around Barrow in terms of sink/source, the comparison is bordering on useless. The only real benefit comes from seeing that both at ML and Barrow the value is increasing, and seems to be accelerating.

Studying pixels can be interesting but you need to step back, sometimes quite a long way, to get to see them within the context of the whole picture.

Juan C. García

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #565 on: April 26, 2016, 02:14:23 PM »
From time to time, I like to see CO2 on Nullschool. China and Eastern USA are where CO2 is worst. It is obvious, emissions of CO2 are considerable there. It surprise me that, like in this picture, we can have 435+ ppm.
On the other hand, on the Southern Hemisphere, we can find in Africa and Brasil measurements of 385 ppm or less.
It also surprise me the high levels (413 ppm for example) that we have on Siberia and Laptev.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/patterson/loc=112.223,78.731

« Last Edit: April 26, 2016, 02:46:37 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Yuha

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #566 on: April 26, 2016, 04:56:22 PM »
NOAA has a thorough description of the measurement process:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html
which includes this:
Quote
There is often a diurnal wind flow pattern on Mauna Loa driven by warming of the surface during the day and cooling during the night. During the day warm air flows up the slope, typically reaching the observatory at 9 am local time (19 UTC) or later. The upslope air may have CO2 that has been lowered by plants removing CO2 through photosynthesis at lower elevations on the island, although the CO2 decrease arrives later than the change in wind direction, because the observatory is surrounded by miles of bare lava.
[...]
At night the flow is often downslope, bringing background air. However, that air is sometimes contaminated by CO2 emissions from the crater of Mauna Loa. As the air meanders down the slope that situation is characterized by high variability of the CO2 mole fraction.
They have a process for rejecting measurements affected by such local variations.

The Scripps measurements are completely separate:
Quote
We have a similar comparison with the CO2 measurements performed by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the program started by David Keeling. They have always maintained their own manometric calibration scale, they use a different analyzer system, and their data selection techniques for selecting background air are different from, and independent of, our methods.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #567 on: April 26, 2016, 05:26:55 PM »
Attached is the latest NOAA daily Mauna Loa CO2 update through April 25 2016, showing that the relatively high CO2 readings are persisting.  For what it is worth, I suspect that with spring warming temperatures both the soil microbes and wildfires in Southeast Asia have increased activity (thus providing a carbon source) while the El Nino-induced drought in Southeast Asia (and particularly in Indonesia) has caused the rainforest to absorb less carbon than normal (thus reducing the carbon sink).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #568 on: April 29, 2016, 09:40:55 AM »
Last Week      April 17 - 23, 2016  407.42 ppm
1 Year Ago     April 17 - 23, 2015  403.18 ppm
10 Years Ago April 17 - 23, 2006  384.79 ppm

Hmph. Pacific is playing tricks. +4.24 ppm and +22,63 ppm FWIW.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #569 on: April 29, 2016, 10:08:32 PM »
Hmm...Pmt
The Pacific is playing tricks... Might be. Indeed the numbers in Barrow are less spectacular, although higher than usual.
Nevertheless, I had a look on the historic graph, 1998, and saw a large increase in the number during the minimum after that El Nino year. About +5 ppm.
When that can be extrapolated to next October, numbers will stay above 402 ppm.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2016, 11:01:42 PM by werther »

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #570 on: May 01, 2016, 02:49:18 PM »
2016   4  10  2016.2746    408.69  6           404.10
 2016   4  17  2016.2937    407.42  7           403.18
 2016   4  24  2016.3128    407.79  6           403.62

3 consecutive weeks with rise of over 4ppm over previous year. That hasn't happened for two consecutive weeks before this.

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #571 on: May 01, 2016, 03:37:37 PM »
April 2016 seems likely to be around 407.41 compared to 403.26 for a rise of around 4.15.

Largest previous rise for a month is 3.76 which was Feb 2016. Sept 1998 managed rise of 3.7 and Jun to Nov 98 all managed rises of over 3.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #572 on: May 01, 2016, 07:23:23 PM »
Attached are NOAA's final daily CO2 readings in April for Mauna Loa; indicating that the daily April readings ended on bang rather than a whimper:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #573 on: May 05, 2016, 11:55:26 PM »
April 2016 seems likely to be around 407.41 compared to 403.26 for a rise of around 4.15.

Largest previous rise for a month is 3.76 which was Feb 2016. Sept 1998 managed rise of 3.7 and Jun to Nov 98 all managed rises of over 3.

Came in at 407.42. (Must do better next time  ;) )

Shared Humanity

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #574 on: May 06, 2016, 12:23:05 AM »
April 2016 seems likely to be around 407.41 compared to 403.26 for a rise of around 4.15.

Largest previous rise for a month is 3.76 which was Feb 2016. Sept 1998 managed rise of 3.7 and Jun to Nov 98 all managed rises of over 3.

Came in at 407.42. (Must do better next time  ;) )

I think Neven should ban you.    ::)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #575 on: May 11, 2016, 05:14:32 PM »
As we approach the traditional peak period for Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations, the attached graph indicates that on May 10, 2016 the daily Mauna Loa value was back over 408ppm:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #576 on: May 16, 2016, 07:58:20 PM »
The linked Climate Central article addresses the question of whether we are permanently above 400 ppm of CO₂ at Mauna Loa (see plot):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/co2-are-we-permanently-above-400-ppm-20351

Extract: " Just three years ago this month, the carbon dioxide monitoring station atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa reached a significant milestone: the first measurement of CO2 concentrations that exceeded the benchmark of 400 parts per million (ppm). Now, they may never again dip below it.
As CO2 levels once again approach their annual apex, they have reached astonishing heights. Concentrations in recent weeks have edged close to 410 ppm, thanks in part to a push from an exceptionally strong El Niño."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #577 on: May 16, 2016, 09:30:01 PM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #578 on: May 23, 2016, 05:46:31 PM »
Per the attached NOAA image issued today showing the daily Mauna Loa CO2 value thru May 22 2016, we may have reached, or are near, the May peak value for 2016 at 408.97ppm:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #579 on: June 10, 2016, 12:35:56 AM »
The linked article documents what we have all been watching w.r.t. recent record atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/07/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-just-reached-a-huge-record-high/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bosbas

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #580 on: June 19, 2016, 10:09:23 PM »
No end to big increases it seems .... 4.78 for the latest weekly update

abbottisgone

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #581 on: June 27, 2016, 08:16:21 AM »
All these numbers sound a bit high..  :o
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Laurent

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #582 on: June 27, 2016, 10:17:34 AM »
.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #583 on: June 27, 2016, 05:41:36 PM »
All these numbers sound a bit high..  :o
Give it time - they'll soon sound low.

pikaia

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #584 on: July 19, 2016, 03:58:40 PM »
CO2 has dropped below 400ppm, albeit briefly!


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #585 on: October 18, 2016, 07:53:19 PM »
cross post - I note David's reference is referring to the recent minimum week CO2 average being above 400 ppm at Mauna Loa.
In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.