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Will the CO2 hit 400 ppm this year?

Yes
83 (75.5%)
No
27 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 107

Author Topic: Mauna Loa CO2  (Read 253526 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #400 on: May 06, 2015, 08:23:03 PM »
The attached NOAA plot for CO2 concentrations through the end of April 2015, indicates (to me at least) that for the Feb, March & April 2015 atmospheric CO2 concentrations have accelerated faster than in any comparable period for the past several years.
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Siffy

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #401 on: May 06, 2015, 08:27:00 PM »
The attached NOAA plot for CO2 concentrations through the end of April 2015, indicates (to me at least) that for the Feb, March & April 2015 atmospheric CO2 concentrations have accelerated faster than in any comparable period for the past several years.

Probably linked to the El Nino in the offing. Hotter ocean water can absorb less CO2 iirc, so as the ocean water gets hotter more CO2 is pumped out?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #402 on: May 06, 2015, 10:23:20 PM »
The attached NOAA plot for CO2 concentrations through the end of April 2015, indicates (to me at least) that for the Feb, March & April 2015 atmospheric CO2 concentrations have accelerated faster than in any comparable period for the past several years.

Probably linked to the El Nino in the offing. Hotter ocean water can absorb less CO2 iirc, so as the ocean water gets hotter more CO2 is pumped out?

Siffy,

The point that you raise about the influence of El Nino on atmospheric CO2 concentrations has merit (and I have discussed this topic in various post in both the 2014 & 2014 El Nino thread); when I look at the impact of comparable El Nino events in the full record (see attached image), it is not clear to me that the El Nino impact is sufficient to account for all of the current CO2 concentration acceleration.  I suspect that it is impossible to assign causation to this observed behavior; but I hope that society starts cutting back on anthropogenic GHG emissions, so that we don't have to be as concerned with the natural feedbacks/responses.

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: May 06, 2015, 10:32:50 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Rubikscube

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #403 on: May 06, 2015, 11:14:20 PM »
The attached NOAA plot for CO2 concentrations through the end of April 2015, indicates (to me at least) that for the Feb, March & April 2015 atmospheric CO2 concentrations have accelerated faster than in any comparable period for the past several years.

Probably linked to the El Nino in the offing. Hotter ocean water can absorb less CO2 iirc, so as the ocean water gets hotter more CO2 is pumped out?

Pmt111500 made an excellent post about a year ago (reply #204) which suggests that there have recently (since 2011) been a significant acceleration in year to year increases even when the ENSO-signal is removed. I would love to have that graph updated by the way.

Csnavywx

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #404 on: May 10, 2015, 05:30:12 PM »
404.11 ppm average this past week, which is 2.22ppm above last year's high water mark. This might be the peak for the year. We will have to wait a couple of weeks to find out.

If a strong Nino occurs this year, we might touch 407 next year, especially if large peat or tropical forest fires due to Nino-induced drought occur.

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #405 on: May 11, 2015, 02:19:15 PM »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32625429

Quote
CO2 levels reach monthly record

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have reached a new monthly record of 400 parts per million, according to scientists.

that is for Global CO2:
Quote
2014     5    2014.375      398.49

2014    12    2014.958      398.63
2015     1    2015.042      399.23
2015     2    2015.125      399.99     
2015     3    2015.208      400.83


Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #406 on: May 13, 2015, 03:22:42 PM »
Probably someone has already reported the April number

403.26 ppm

Atmospheric CO2 for April 2015
preliminary monthly average
Mauna Loa Observatory (NOAA-ESRL data)

that there have recently (since 2011) been a significant acceleration in year to year increases even when the ENSO-signal is removed. I would love to have that graph updated by the way.

Ah, I've not done most anything on excel after I got most files saved from the laptop. There was some guesswork involved with that one, that I was not too sure about. 6 month delay on ENSO(CO2) and a year for biological response? Just now, I'm not too sure where I put those files trying to sort 4 different huge backups starting from c.2002...

(Modified ~hour afterwards)
found the file in question, maybe I'll get back to it sometime, but it shouldn't be too hard to replicate either.

(what was I thinking year ago?)
*Just remembering the biological carbon cycle is much larger than the anthropogenic one could give the 12 month delay involved here.
*That stock market values or indexes aren't reliable predictors of the rise of CO2 isn't at all surprising as they consist of many bubbles.
*Heat coming out of Pacific during El Nino effects almost all of tropics between 40N - 40S, so outgassing of CO2 is likely to happen with ~6 months delay like in the surface temperatures.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2015, 06:48:21 AM by Pmt111500 »
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opensheart

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #407 on: July 18, 2015, 12:11:04 AM »
Is it just me,  or is the Mauna Loa daily, weekly values declining less this June and July than normal?

pikaia

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #408 on: July 18, 2015, 12:15:10 AM »
Is it just me,  or is the Mauna Loa daily, weekly values declining less this June and July than normal?
I don't think it is possible to say. The figures for the last few weeks have been very volatile compared to last year, so it is hard to compare them.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #409 on: July 18, 2015, 06:03:49 AM »
Is it just me,  or is the Mauna Loa daily, weekly values declining less this June and July than normal?
This wouldn't surprise me what with the developing el Nino and all of the outgassing associated with warm SSTs. The massive forest fires present on northern North America would contribute, yes.
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crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #410 on: August 04, 2015, 05:19:04 PM »
August 03 - 396.72
August 02 - 396.81
August 01 - 399.83
July 31 - 399.93
July 30 - 400.05

noticeable drop last two days. Guess that is likely to be corrected, as is point near 391.5 for the latest data point on


My impression is that errors are usually on the high side? Not this time, so I thought I would mention it despite just being a likely error.

opensheart

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #411 on: August 07, 2015, 07:20:14 PM »
As I understand,  CO2 is not uniform over the globe.  there is more in the northern hemisphere than the southern.   I saw once an animation that showed CO2 swirling around the planet.

And I believe a tropical storm just past north of Hawaii. 

Is it possible that the storm brought up air with less CO2 from down south?

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #412 on: August 09, 2015, 04:55:25 PM »
As I understand,  CO2 is not uniform over the globe.  there is more in the northern hemisphere than the southern.   I saw once an animation that showed CO2 swirling around the planet.

And I believe a tropical storm just past north of Hawaii. 

Is it possible that the storm brought up air with less CO2 from down south?

Not easy to read graphs like




Above seems to indicate we are at about the crossover point from being above average to below average.

Hard to see if that happens earlier in the year at slightly further south latitudes. Perhaps cyclones mixing up water causes more CO2 absorbtion by ocean.

Week beginning on August 2, 2015:     398.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     397.65 ppm
Only up 0.47 on a year

August 08 - 399.38
August 07 - 398.79
August 06 - 398.58
August 05 - 398.77
August 04 - 397.80

Recovering from unusually low levels. Perhaps that does suggest just temporary unusual low values rather than an error correction being needed.


Bill Fothergill

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #413 on: August 17, 2015, 04:57:42 PM »
Dates to remember:

In 2014, for the first time ever, the NOAA Mauna Loa monthly measurements topped the 400 mark, and stayed that way for each of April, May and June.

This year, that depressing 400 mark has been exceeded - thus far - on 6 occasions (February - July), and it's a virtual certainty that December will go the same way.

However, things will be slightly different next year - but not in a good way. September and October of 2016 will be the only months left with any chance of staying under the 400 mark. Then it's "onwards and upwards".

Dark days ahead.

Yuha

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #414 on: August 17, 2015, 08:28:49 PM »
Dates to remember:

In 2014, for the first time ever, the NOAA Mauna Loa monthly measurements topped the 400 mark, and stayed that way for each of April, May and June.

This year, that depressing 400 mark has been exceeded - thus far - on 6 occasions (February - July), and it's a virtual certainty that December will go the same way.

However, things will be slightly different next year - but not in a good way. September and October of 2016 will be the only months left with any chance of staying under the 400 mark. Then it's "onwards and upwards".

More dates to remember:

March 2015 was the first month with the seasonally corrected average over 400 ppm (though there is still a small chance this could change, see my earlier posts in this thread):

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,66.msg49252.html#msg49252
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,66.msg49725.html#msg49725
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,66.msg51380.html#msg51380

October 2014 - September 2015 will likely be the first 12 month period averaging over 400 ppm.

Csnavywx

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #415 on: September 03, 2015, 01:38:11 PM »
We're only 2 weeks until the typical seasonal bottom and still hanging around 398.5. I'm interested to see if we see a drop-off in that period or if we simply slowly slide to the minimum. With Nino really kicking in, we should start seeing effects from that soon.

trebuh

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #416 on: September 08, 2015, 11:16:18 AM »

pikaia

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #417 on: September 08, 2015, 11:30:17 AM »
I have seen anomalous figures like that before, but they were removed within a few days. I expect it will be the same with these.

pikaia

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #418 on: September 09, 2015, 03:46:02 PM »
Told you!

September 08 - 397.63
September 07 - 398.36
September 06 - Unavailable
September 05 - 398.43
September 04 - 398.15

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #419 on: September 10, 2015, 05:55:33 PM »
With the current rate of increase and El Nino ramping up I think we might well be in the last ever month that is below 400.

Now there's a scary thought!

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #420 on: September 19, 2015, 12:10:53 PM »
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112791288

nick GliderGuider made the GDP vs. CO2 growth correlation test with remarkably good correlation.
Also he had found GDP data from way earlier than my source. 72% would at least in ecology be a correlation worth of publication.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #421 on: October 05, 2015, 06:33:11 PM »
The attached 6-month Keeling Curve shows that: (a) the seasonal CO2 variation has bottom-out and is now increasing again; and (b) we are still following a BAU pathway (no matter what progress is being made, or not, in the CoP21 process):
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silkman

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #422 on: October 11, 2015, 10:07:09 AM »
The Keeling Curve is closing in on 400ppm already.


Yuha

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #423 on: October 11, 2015, 01:44:45 PM »
October 2014 - September 2015 will likely be the first 12 month period averaging over 400 ppm.

It was: The October 2014 - September 2015 average for NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 was 400.11 ppm.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #424 on: October 31, 2015, 06:53:44 AM »
yep, looks like we'll be leaving the three hundreds permanently in 2nd week of November. not factoring in the El Nino amplification of atmospheric carbon dioxide, I got the following image. This assuming very slight exponential (as I think it's been customary in economic BAU-models since they still measure growth in percentages). Factoring the El Nino in there's virtually no chance of 2016 getting under 400 on any week. Losing the exponential AND El Nino would produce the low value of 400,11 which still could translate to few values under the 400 in 2016. No chance for that.

The other image is an update of the yearly change in CO2 according to Mauna Loa observations. we seem to be pretty much on the trendline currently, which is where the exponential comes about.

Sorry, the names of the images are not at all correct :)

Without checking which date of the week they mark on the weekly values at Mauna Loa, it appears -   if they use the central value for the week - that Mauna Loa yearly central average passed 400ppm approximately on 9th of March, time, 06:57:26. This we of course could approximate only in the late afternoon of September 14th as the numbers came in... (ok, this might be a bit too accurate)


Modified later this morning: Added the image made out of the Mauna Loa weekly dataset since 1975, the few gaps in the dataset have been linearly interpolated. This is kind of more visual and impressive way to show the change in the second image, I'd say. Instead of a spaghetti it looks more like a thick filo pastry  ;) . The 53rd weeks in various years have been crudely included and the x-axis set so the approximate months can be deciphered.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2015, 05:21:10 AM by Pmt111500 »
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BFraser

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #425 on: November 01, 2015, 08:10:09 AM »
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that next year, we will have at least 2 weekly averages below 400 and give it a greater than 50-50 chance that either September or October will average below 400.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #426 on: November 02, 2015, 11:07:04 AM »
Oops, error error error!

It looks like the yearly cycle has grown a bit, so I should likely calculate the first image again. Using the 30 year averages to get an average year, of course, now that I've gotten some time to think of it, produces a shallower yearly cycle than what is currently normal. Somewhat of a rookie mistake in the first image on my last post. But still, the El Nino would keep it over the limit, I think.

Meh, perennial amateur.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2015, 11:32:10 AM by Pmt111500 »
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werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #427 on: November 10, 2015, 05:59:33 PM »
November 09 - 400.29
November 08 - 399.16
November 07 - 399.24
November 06 - 399.56
November 05 - Unavailable

The atmosphere is back at 400... looks it's never going to cross back again in our lifetime (nor in that of humankind probably).

Sigmetnow

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #428 on: November 11, 2015, 01:46:06 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #429 on: November 11, 2015, 04:14:05 PM »
Sigmetnow, Nicely written blogpost from Virginia. First thing I read today and somehow made me feel a part of something larger. Thanks Sig

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #430 on: November 11, 2015, 05:51:20 PM »
November 09 - 400.29
November 08 - 399.16
November 07 - 399.24
November 06 - 399.56
November 05 - Unavailable

The atmosphere is back at 400... looks it's never going to cross back again in our lifetime (nor in that of humankind probably).

Never in our lifetime? Umm, lasted all of 1 day:
November 10 - 399.48
November 09 - 400.29
November 08 - 399.16

sorry couldn't resist. But then global Sept 15 value is 397.08 ppm so even Sept 16 global average might be below 400. This 400 number was always going to last a while using different measurments.

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #431 on: November 11, 2015, 06:40:26 PM »
Ah Crandles... you remind me of a teacher in civil engineering who once told me 'my calculating was not accurate...'.
But then, I was always more attracted by the artistic side.

The Mauna Loa is just one spot, but it's record turns it's individual data into icons. Barrow is way above 400 by now...
« Last Edit: November 12, 2015, 10:16:14 PM by werther »

Yuha

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #432 on: November 12, 2015, 04:17:14 PM »
If I had to choose a single date when the 400 ppm line was passed, it would be based on the NOAA seasonally corrected global CO2:

ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_gl.txt

The latest published monthly mean is 399.82 for September. The October number will be very close to 400, probably slightly above but could be just below too.  In any case, the date would be somewhere around mid October, about a month ago.

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #433 on: December 20, 2015, 07:26:22 AM »
It's been a while since anyone updated here, so reporting the value for the

Week beginning on December 6, 2015:     401.31 ppm , this is a rise of 2.38 ppm from
the weekly value from 1 year ago:     398.93 ppm
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pikaia

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #434 on: December 20, 2015, 02:45:23 PM »
Week beginning December 16: 402.35, which is a massive 3.31ppm above last year. The last week of December 2014 showed a small decrease over the previous week, so next week's figure could have an even bigger difference.

Yuha

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #435 on: December 20, 2015, 06:12:11 PM »
If I had to choose a single date when the 400 ppm line was passed, it would be based on the NOAA seasonally corrected global CO2:

ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_gl.txt

The NOAA seasonally corrected global CO2 for October was 400.17, so we are officially past 400 by that measure too.

DrTskoul

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #436 on: December 22, 2015, 05:14:34 PM »
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

Dec 21st :403.89.. > 403 for second consecutive day

Honey.. I broke the scale

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #437 on: December 22, 2015, 05:56:02 PM »
December 21 - 403.89 ppm
December 20 - 403.17 ppm
December 19 - 402.16 ppm
December 18 - 402.13 ppm
December 17 - 401.78 ppm


Indeed... it almost looks like the ocean carbon sink is failing...

Pmt111500

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #438 on: December 28, 2015, 06:15:30 AM »
OK, now we're starting to see what the ENSO (and other hot ocean water) is doing to ppm's this winter. Is it better to have the CO2 in the ocean or in the atmosphere? I guess that depends on the health of the sinks.

Week beginning on December 20, 2015:     402.60 ppm  rise of +3.62ppm from
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     398.98 ppm
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CraigsIsland

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #439 on: December 28, 2015, 06:51:27 AM »
Where's the raw data? Noob q I know.

I'm interested in doing some statistics from previous years. If the carbon sinks are "failing" - these stats would be a sign?nor would there be other signs. I know coral bleaching and El Niño have had huge impacts on marine life this year but I'm curious if it's had an impact on its ability to function as a carbon sink. If that turned off- we would be in a lot of trouble.

werther

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #440 on: December 28, 2015, 08:53:15 AM »
CraigsIsland, hi,
I guess all you need can be found over here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

You mention  coral bleaching and El Niño as impacts. Musing on that in trying to figure out what's going on (kept me busy for years...). To clear the process, I see 'anthropogenic carbon emissions' as the forcing that has an impact. Coral bleaching and ocean acidification are consequences.
El Niño not so much, as it is a natural phenomenon.
In my opinion what is going on during the last two years is not El Niño as we have identified it based on what's known of the past.
It is 'ocean heat content' released to the atmosphere. Or maybe more accurate, heat accumulation on the ocean surface because of diminishing thermohaline circulation.
On the blog, Fishoutofwater pointed to the waters around Antarctica; his view does illustrate.

Looking at the daily Mauna Loa data (and Barrow), I suggested 'failing carbon sink'. It's a bit rhetorical, as the sign isn't big yet and CO2-content growth may ease as El Niño fades.

Still, I'm afraid that emissions reductions, when they do materialize based on the Paris agreements, won't have much influence under the given circumstances.
But they would be better than not doing anything at all.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2015, 03:50:18 PM by werther »

crandles

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #441 on: December 28, 2015, 01:07:52 PM »
Where's the raw data? Noob q I know.

I'm interested in doing some statistics from previous years. If the carbon sinks are "failing" - these stats would be a sign?nor would there be other signs. I know coral bleaching and El Niño have had huge impacts on marine life this year but I'm curious if it's had an impact on its ability to function as a carbon sink. If that turned off- we would be in a lot of trouble.

I guess you will want emissions too in order to calculate the atmospheric fraction. Perhaps something like
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2011.ems
but that only goes up to 2011
from
http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html
which shows graph and publication details.

The data is noisy so any one year's change is going to be combination of noise and El Nino and perhaps other oscillations. These together with measurement uncertainty will swamp any change in atmospheric fraction over 1 year.

"carbon sinks are failing" is much talked about but I am not sure there is much evidence in the global emissions and atmosphere data. Compare something like last 15 years with a 15 year period ended 30 years ago and maybe this will be more likely to show a change. You may still need to adjust for El Nino conditions over such periods and maybe even then other noise and uncertainties might still make drawing a conclusion difficult. I had a little bit of a look a while ago but wasn't sure what to make of the data but maybe more recent data and/or more careful analysis would make a difference. Maybe such has been done in the published literature somewhere since Knorr 2009?

http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2010/01/28/airbourne-fraction-again/
is from 2010
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Is-the-airborne-fraction-of-anthropogenic-CO2-emissions-increasing.html
from 2009 covering Knorr 2009

AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #442 on: December 30, 2015, 09:48:20 PM »
The following Mauna Loa CO2 values indicate that for the week from Dec 20 to Dec 27 2015, CO2 concentrations were 3.62ppm higher than for the same period last year; while the average weekly concentrations from 2005 to 2015 was only increasing at a rate of 2.242 ppm/year.  Thus it is difficult to imagine that anthropogenic emissions are adequately under control:

 Week beginning on December 20, 2015:     402.60 ppm
 Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   398.98 ppm
 Weekly value from 10 years ago:                380.18 ppm
(Last updated: December 30, 2015)
« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 11:55:09 PM by AbruptSLR »
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CraigsIsland

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #443 on: December 30, 2015, 11:29:29 PM »
Thanks forum members - extremely valuable inputs from y'all :)



it's been a very weird/interesting year.

JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #444 on: December 31, 2015, 01:05:22 AM »
The following Mauna Loa CO2 values indicate that for the week from Dec 20 to Dec 27 2015, CO2 concentrations were 3.62ppm higher than for the same period last year; while the average weekly concentrations from 2005 to 2015 was only increasing at a rate of 2.242 ppm/year.  Thus it is difficult to imagine that anthropogenic emissions are adequately under control:

 Week beginning on December 20, 2015:     402.60 ppm
 Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   398.98 ppm
 Weekly value from 10 years ago:                380.18 ppm
(Last updated: December 30, 2015)

Looking at the ESRL site it sorts of looks like there were 2 very high (maybe anomalous?) readings in that weeks data set - 1 of over 403 and 1 near 404.  There may have been a measurement error on one or both of them. 
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #445 on: December 31, 2015, 01:16:15 AM »

LRC1962

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #446 on: December 31, 2015, 02:24:19 AM »
El Niño Could Push CO2 Permanently Above Milestone
Quote
El Niño’s Push

CO2 levels rise much faster during and just following an El Niño event, he said. Much of this is because the shift in the location of warm tropical Pacific Ocean waters that is a hallmark of El Niño leads to a shift in the location of tropical rains. Many tropical forests end up in drought and there can often be an uptick in forest fires (as has been the case with the terrific forest fires in Indonesia this year), meaning even more CO2 builds up in the atmosphere.
Based on this article next year will see a must higher uptick. :'(
Exactly how are we supposed to keep temps below 2C?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #447 on: December 31, 2015, 02:45:20 AM »
The following Mauna Loa CO2 values indicate that for the week from Dec 20 to Dec 27 2015, CO2 concentrations were 3.62ppm higher than for the same period last year; while the average weekly concentrations from 2005 to 2015 was only increasing at a rate of 2.242 ppm/year.  Thus it is difficult to imagine that anthropogenic emissions are adequately under control:

 Week beginning on December 20, 2015:     402.60 ppm
 Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   398.98 ppm
 Weekly value from 10 years ago:                380.18 ppm
(Last updated: December 30, 2015)

Looking at the ESRL site it sorts of looks like there were 2 very high (maybe anomalous?) readings in that weeks data set - 1 of over 403 and 1 near 404.  There may have been a measurement error on one or both of them.

While I believe that comparing one weekly average CO2 concentration to the average of a 10-year trend is comparing apples to oranges; nevertheless, I prefer the likely explanation that El Nino conditions likely contributed to a few atypically high daily values rather than suspecting multiple measurement errors.  However, if the current strong El Nino triggers the acceleration of several positive feedbacks (such as rainforest wildfires, etc.) then anthropogenic emissions will need to be cut back more than previously expected in order to keep GHG concentrations within acceptable range to meet the 1.5 to 2C targets.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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JimD

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #448 on: December 31, 2015, 05:56:22 PM »
LRC & ASLR

I don't see how anyone can rationally think that the 2C number is even a possibility anymore.  Theoretical perhaps (and maybe not even that) but the reality of human behavior and especially the drive for population growth and economic development are incompatible with the 2C limit.  Since the Paris 'agreement' results in numbers above 3C and that agreement is highly unlikely to be adhered to how can we even contemplate achieving a 2C limit.

Real action will not start until the first Black Swan arrives and stairsteps us down a civilizational notch or two.  Then panic will set in - I hope.
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Theta

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Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« Reply #449 on: December 31, 2015, 06:53:17 PM »
LRC & ASLR

I don't see how anyone can rationally think that the 2C number is even a possibility anymore.  Theoretical perhaps (and maybe not even that) but the reality of human behavior and especially the drive for population growth and economic development are incompatible with the 2C limit.  Since the Paris 'agreement' results in numbers above 3C and that agreement is highly unlikely to be adhered to how can we even contemplate achieving a 2C limit.

Real action will not start until the first Black Swan arrives and stairsteps us down a civilizational notch or two.  Then panic will set in - I hope.

The current El Nino seems to be the perfect black swan event given the damage it is doing already and the damage that is to come. However, as much as I would like to see civilisation taken down a notch to allow for something more sustainable to come about, I just don't think it's possible because of the loss of aerosols from the death of industrial activity which would result in, what I have heard, the temperature rising to 4C, so we can't just parade collapse as though it's a silver bullet that fixes everything as it spawns worse problems.

The best we could probably muster is as ASLR says, to limit CO2 output within the current industrial civilisation.

 
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