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icefest

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #100 on: July 17, 2014, 01:04:21 PM »
I appreciate your work too willi!
Open other end.

Laurent

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Anne

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #102 on: July 20, 2014, 05:29:58 AM »
Drug-resistant bacteria: Sewage-treatment plants described as giant 'mixing vessels' after scientists discover mutated microbes in British river.

Link

mabs

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #103 on: July 20, 2014, 06:26:40 AM »
Drug-resistant bacteria: Sewage-treatment plants described as giant 'mixing vessels' after scientists discover mutated microbes in British river.

Link

Of all the bad news we got this week, this might just be the worst.
No god and no religion can survive ridicule. No church, no nobility, no royalty or other fraud, can face ridicule in a fair field and live.
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solartim27

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #104 on: July 20, 2014, 07:31:19 PM »
Otters in Pacific getting sick from a disease that was confined to the Atlantic.
http://www.npr.org/2014/07/20/333173754/as-polar-icebox-shrinks-infectious-pathogens-move-north
FNORD

Anne

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #105 on: July 22, 2014, 03:51:18 PM »
Oh great.

Quote
Chinese city sealed off after bubonic plague death

A Chinese city has been sealed off and 151 people have been placed in quarantine since last week after a man died of bubonic plague, state media said.

The 30,000 residents of Yumen, in the north-western province of Gansu, are not being allowed to leave, and police at roadblocks on the perimeter of the city are telling motorists to find alternative routes, China Central Television (CCTV) said.

A 38-year-old man died last Wednesday, the report said, after he had been in contact with a dead marmot, a small furry animal related to the squirrel. No further plague cases have been reported.

CCTV said officials were not allowing anyone to leave. The China Daily newspaper said four quarantine sectors had been set up in the city.

"The city has enough rice, flour and oil to supply all its residents for up to one month," CCTV added. "Local residents and those in quarantine are all in stable condition." No further cases have been reported.
So no need to panic.

Quote
Bubonic plague is a bacterial infection best known for the Black Death, a virulent epidemic that killed tens of millions of people in 14th-century Europe. Primarily an animal illness, it is extremely rare in humans.
But it pops up all round the world. There have been four cases in Colorado in the last fortnight, none of them life-threatening.

Quote
The US Centres for Disease Control (CDC) says modern antibiotics are effective in treating plague, but that without prompt treatment the disease can cause serious illness or death.
BIB: We all know the implications of the world's profligate use of antibiotics.

Source: The Guardian, 22 July 2014. Link

Milret2

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #106 on: July 29, 2014, 08:03:24 AM »
When I saw the first report of Ebola in Nigeria and how it arrived I wondered how they quarantined the passengers on that plane before they were able to disperse. I soon saw several articles that said they were indeed quarantined .. but now there is this -->http://qz.com/241241/why-ebola-reaching-the-nigerian-capital-is-a-whole-new-level-of-scary/

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #107 on: July 30, 2014, 01:26:24 AM »
Lagos is the largest city in Africa, 21 some million souls, many living in utter squalor.

This disease could explode rather quickly in such a context. And of course this is also a major transportation hub not only to the rest of Africa, but also to major cities in Europe, the MidEast, and the US (Houston and Atlanta).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murtala_Muhammed_International_Airport#Airlines_and_destinations
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ritter

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #108 on: July 31, 2014, 08:26:55 PM »
Quote
Global medical charity Doctors Without Borders has given warning that the Ebola crisis in West Africa is "unprecedented, absolutely out of control", as states across the world took steps to prevent its spread.

Bart Janssens, the charity's director of operations, warned there was no overarching vision of how to tackle the outbreak, in an interview with Belgium's La Libre Belgique newspaper.

"This epidemic ... can only get worse, because it is still spreading, above all in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in some very important hotspots," Janssens said.

"We are extremely worried by the turn of events, particularly in these two countries where there is a lack of visibility on the epidemic. If the situation does not improve fairly quickly, there is a real risk of new countries being affected.

"That is certainly not ruled out, but it is difficult to predict, because we have never known such an epidemic."
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/07/ebola-epidemic-out-control-says-charity-2014730143330618539.html

Things continue to deteriorate.

ritter

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #109 on: July 31, 2014, 08:55:41 PM »
I found this fascinating/horrifying/saddening account being posted by UNC’s Dr. William Fischer II working with MSF on the frontlines. Brave, brave people.

http://news.unchealthcare.org/news/2014/june/dispatch-from-guinea-containing-ebola

solartim27

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #110 on: August 02, 2014, 08:55:02 PM »
400k people around Toledo Ohio can't drink the tapwater, can't even boil it because of microcystin in Lake Erie.
http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2014/08/02/City-of-Toledo-issues-do-no-drink-water-advisery.html
FNORD

AbruptSLR

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #111 on: August 06, 2014, 06:06:23 PM »
According to the linked article, climate change will make ebola outbreaks worse:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/05/will-climate-change-worsen-ebola-outbreaks/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #112 on: August 06, 2014, 07:16:51 PM »
Thanks for that link, ASLR.

The rate of increase is pretty frightening. For those who want to keep up, wiki is actually doing a pretty good job of staying on top of the latest numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak

Now at 1711 cases and 932 deaths. The rates of increase continue to be pretty staggering, especially if you extrapolate where they could be in just a few months, and no one who I have heard speak authoritatively on this seems to think it will be anywhere near under control in less than several months.



Cases are more than doubling every month now, deaths doubling in a bit more than a month. How many deaths and cases does that give us by the new year?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #113 on: August 08, 2014, 05:33:14 AM »
    The health care system in Liberia is collapsing, hospitals closing down and medical workers fleeing from the Ebola epidemic, which is poised to worsen, Liberia’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

   
Quote
“People are dying from common diseases because the health care system is collapsing,” Minister of Foreign Affairs Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan said in an interview with Thomson Reuters Foundation.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/08/07/ebola-expert-liberia-is-apocalypse-now/?singlepage=true

Quote
Isaacs ended the hearing with a somber tone, warning members of [US] Congress to take the Ebola threat seriously.

    “If you read the Ministry of Health status reports coming out every day from Libera, I don’t mean to be dramatic, but it has an atmosphere of ‘Apocalypse Now’ in it,” he said, referring to bodies lying in the street and gangs threatening to burn down hospitals.

    “I believe that this disease has the potential to be a national security risk for many nations, and I think it will even have an impact on our national security,” he added.

Maybe that last bit will get their attention. But since we are already on the brink of a hot war in the Ukraine and now in Iraq again, there are plenty of...distractions.

Quote
Previous outbreaks occurred in rural areas, and essentially burned themselves out.

The current outbreak is happening in extremely densely populated cities. It is moving along the terrestrial transportation routes. The viral infection is never likely to burn out in such conditions.

In other words, there is plenty of 'fuel' for that exponential graph to keep growing exponentially for a long, long time. Just as we have to count people who die from a stampede out of a crowded burning theater as casualties of the fire, we now have to count the many who are dying and will die of easily treatable diseases as victims of this ebola epidemic.
 
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Milret2

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #114 on: August 08, 2014, 10:00:39 AM »
Looks like there are now several more fatalities among health workers who responded to the man who collapsed in the Lagos Nigeria air terminal and subsequently died from his Ebola infection. I wonder if this might be part of the reason the CDC went to status RED for this evolving disease situation.

Milret2

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #115 on: August 10, 2014, 05:07:26 AM »
I thought I had read somewhere that four people beside the fellow who arrived at Lagos airport had died but the article I am leaving here states that there have only been two fatalities so far but nine infections, apparently all in initial care providers. I hope that is as far as it goes.
http://wonkynewsnerd.com/lagos-asks-volunteers-fight-ebola/

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #116 on: August 10, 2014, 09:56:44 AM »
"two fatalities so far but nine infections"

That's my understanding, too. But they're declaring a state of emergency, so I'm not sure that they are certain that they have identified all the cases.

Here's Ken Isaac's testimony before the US Congress's Foreign Affairs committee. He points out at about minute 3 that the reported cases are likely as little as 25% of the actual cases.

http://www.samaritanspurse.org/article/ebola-crisis-in-west-africa/?utm_source=SPTwitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=m_Y000-SOCM_SocialMedia
« Last Edit: August 10, 2014, 11:13:39 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

SteveMDFP

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #117 on: August 10, 2014, 01:49:14 PM »
"two fatalities so far but nine infections"

That's my understanding, too. But they're declaring a state of emergency, so I'm not sure that they are certain that they have identified all the cases.

Here's Ken Isaac's testimony before the US Congress's Foreign Affairs committee. He points out at about minute 3 that the reported cases are likely as little as 25% of the actual cases.

http://www.samaritanspurse.org/article/ebola-crisis-in-west-africa/?utm_source=SPTwitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=m_Y000-SOCM_SocialMedia

One of the worrisome aspects is the degree to which a relatively modest number of deaths in the region (about a thousand over several months) is causing fairly massive social and economic chaos.  Foreign workers are going home, businesses are closing, schools are abandoned, airline service suspended, borders sealed, and healthcare workers attacked. 

We can expect ANY area of the world that gets significant numbers of cases to face similar social and economic devastation.  The main harm from this epidemic may prove to be economic in the end.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #118 on: August 10, 2014, 03:21:01 PM »
Thanks for that link, ASLR.

The rate of increase is pretty frightening. For those who want to keep up, wiki is actually doing a pretty good job of staying on top of the latest numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak

Now at 1711 cases and 932 deaths. The rates of increase continue to be pretty staggering, especially if you extrapolate where they could be in just a few months, and no one who I have heard speak authoritatively on this seems to think it will be anywhere near under control in less than several months.



Cases are more than doubling every month now, deaths doubling in a bit more than a month. How many deaths and cases does that give us by the new year?

That sure looks like exponential growth in cases and deaths. Such a chart speaks volumes. It suggests that the virus is encountering no current limitations on its spread. As the UN spokesperson said a couple of weeks ago, this outbreak is currently out of control.

Laurent

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #119 on: August 10, 2014, 03:38:58 PM »

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #120 on: August 10, 2014, 08:04:46 PM »
Steve, quite likely, but that doesn't mean that the physical threat of an exponentially growing epidemic isn't real. It's kind of like saying that the main death toll from a fire that burnt down a crowded theater was from the stampede of people getting out--but if they had all stayed in the theater, the death total would have been higher/total.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #122 on: August 12, 2014, 05:38:53 PM »
To put this Ebola outbreak into some form of context:

There have been 33 previous outbreaks since it was first identified in 1976.
The sum total of all of those earlier outbreaks are 2,361 infected and 1,548 dead.

This one outbreak has so far infected 1,848 and killed 1,013.

The way the numbers are going sadly looks like this outbreak wil be worse than all previous ones combined. If they don't get a grip on it in Lagos very soon then you can expect some truely horrific numbers in the coming weeks and months.

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #123 on: August 12, 2014, 08:45:17 PM »
Thanks for that perspective, DITUK (I guess :-[).

Lagos (largest city in Africa--over 21 million) and Nigeria in general (most populous country in Africa, 7th most populous in the world--about 175 million) certainly bear watching and represent an enormous 'opportunity' for this bug to continue its exponential growth for another 17 or so doublings/months. Spread to Asia could put the death toll into the billions, especially if if mutates to become airborne.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ritter

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #124 on: August 13, 2014, 12:58:40 AM »
Lagos:



















I am unsure how quarantine is implemented in this environment.

ritter

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #125 on: August 13, 2014, 01:21:24 AM »
Quote
Nigeria races to halt Ebola spread in overcrowded Lagos
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0GC1N820140812?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Quote
In its built-up metropolitan areas, Lagos has 20,000 people per square km (50,000 people per square mile), the state government says, about the same as other overcrowded cities such as Mumbai and Dhaka.

Sanitation is at least as bad as either of the other two, with most Lagosians urinating and defecating in the open.

So, when you've got the associated diarrhea and vomiting, there's nowhere but the street to evacuate. And others are doing their business in the same places, likely without shoes and generally with no knowledge of germ theory. What a nightmare for the responders.

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #126 on: August 13, 2014, 06:25:07 AM »
Good points and great pics, r.

A bit further north, things are getting medieval:

Quote
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is so out of control that governments there have revived a disease-fighting tactic not used in nearly a century: the “cordon sanitaire,” in which a line is drawn around the infected area and no one is allowed out.

Cordons, common in the medieval era of the Black Death, have not been seen since the border between Poland and Russia was closed in 1918 to stop typhus from spreading west. They have the potential to become brutal and inhumane. Centuries ago, in their most extreme form, everyone within the boundaries was left to die or survive, until the outbreak ended...

In Sierra Leone, large sections of the Kailahun and Kenema districts, an area the size of Jamaica, have been cut off by military roadblocks. Soldiers check the credentials and take the temperatures of those trying to go in or out. In Liberia, similar restrictions have been imposed north of the capital, Monrovia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/13/science/using-a-tactic-unseen-in-a-century-countries-cordon-off-ebola-racked-areas.html?_r=0

Given the story a while back that an officially quarantined house had visitors wandering in and out at will, I am dubious about the effectiveness of even these extreme measures. And of course people can travel other ways than just on official roads.

And as you point out, it is not clear that any such measures will have any effect in a place like Lagos.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #127 on: August 13, 2014, 01:17:49 PM »
Wili,

A note on Ebola going airborne - although there has been some instances documented by Canadian researchers of pigs and monkeys passing it on with no contact there is little evidence of it occuring...yet.

Ebola Reston - a strain that was discovered in a monkey quarantine house does appear to have that ability to be airborne, but the mutation/hybrid makes it harmless to humans. Sadly, not for the monkeys. I still find that a little too close for comfort.

The genome of Ebola is very small and there's no much room for it to take on other genes from more communicable diseases. The fear of Ebola meeting Influenze to spawn some nightmare virus child is almost zero. Unlike HIV which evolves really quickly, Ebola has a relativley stable genome and is unlikely to spontaneously mutate.

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #128 on: August 13, 2014, 06:09:06 PM »
DITUK wrote: "The genome of Ebola is very small and there's no much room for it to take on other genes from more communicable diseases."

I hadn't heard that before. Thanks. But how does this square with your earlier two paragraphs that cite instances of it actually mutating to more communicable diseases (though not, in those cases, for humans)?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #129 on: August 13, 2014, 08:14:24 PM »
It does sound a bit counter-intuitive doesn't it.

The Ebola small genome has very few 'junk' areas and most sections seem to have a function.

Say we 'wanted' to introduce a new section that would code for a tougher outer coating that allows it to live longer in the air. This section would need to be incorporated into an area that doesn't currently code for something else, say the binding protien that allows it to latch onto human cells.

Any changes to the genome are very likely to interfere with it's current functioning and are almost certain to degrade its performance as a human pathogen. There are only around 19,000 gene base-pairs in Ebola and about 13,000 in Influenza. We have 3.2 billion, with what appears to be masses of junk area. Pick a bit of our genome at random, slot in a new bit and you probably wouldn't notice. Get the wrong bit though and you might just wipe out the coding for mucus membranes or part of the functioning of sodium transport through cells, and hey presto - it's no longer a viable human genome.

It just not that easy for it to mutate in exactly the right way. It's not impossible, just really not very likely.

Of course the longer it spends in human hosts, the more chance it has to rub up against some other air-borne virus, and then with one goldilocks mutation...........

.....but it's still a very long shot. Far more likely is H1N1 or some varient to mutate the wrong way and we get the Spanish Flu all over again.


wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #130 on: August 13, 2014, 09:12:58 PM »
Points taken. Thanks for the clarification. Wouldn't you say, though, that every new case does increase that probability, however slightly?

Meanwhile, death totals are now up to 1,975; deaths--1,069. This continues the pattern of cases about doubling every month, with deaths slightly behind that rate.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Laurent

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #131 on: August 13, 2014, 09:47:51 PM »
Ebola outbreak: Kenya at high risk, warns WHO
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28769678

Laurent

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #132 on: August 13, 2014, 10:25:34 PM »
Breaking news and analysis from the world of science policy
http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/08/what-does-ebola-actually-do

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #133 on: August 14, 2014, 02:18:00 PM »
Wili,

You're right, there is a very small (but constantly growing) chance that it will mutate by one mechanism or another. We could be lucky and find the mutation makes it harmless as in Ebola Reston (and there's still some debate as to whether it is properly airborne).

After further reading up it would appear that the pig->chimpanzee communication was most likely through atomisation or contaimination from cleaning the pigs pens rather than direct airborne ability. Pigs are probably the best human compatible host to produce atomised spray to spread a virus. They sweat very little and so, like dogs, try to reduce their temperatire by panting.

Ebola is nasty enough as it is without giving the bugger wings!

Laurent

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #134 on: August 15, 2014, 10:10:23 AM »
Ebola outbreak: Guinea declares emergency
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28787025

JimD

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #135 on: August 16, 2014, 03:42:33 PM »
Thus, in the early stages of collapse, we see the dilemma of how to deal with a crisis in a place we no longer care about, but which has the potential to impact us (oil supplies).

Do we mobilize a large and costly effort to control this epidemic at its sources or do we wall the region off and let it burn itself out.  Or do we essentially do nothing because we are just no longer capable of acting in some form of a rational manner.

This situation should get a lot worse.   We have health care workers avoiding treatment of the outbreak, a number are dying, one at least breaking quarantine, locals hiding sick people from health care workers, victims being buried secretly, and so on.  As the article says, if it gets going in Lagos we are all in trouble.  In that case do we quarantine West Africa and just let them die or what.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/14/you_are_not_nearly_scared_enough_ebola_vaccine_west_africa_outbreak

edit to add llink

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/ebola-moving-faster-than/1315088.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #136 on: August 18, 2014, 12:26:52 PM »
Jim,

The phrase 'horns of a dilema' springs to mind. They can't sit back and do nothing (not without setting up a cordon sanitaire anyway), they haven't got the resources to track and isolate evryone who comes in contact with an infected person, and there is a general distrust of authority with added heaps of mis-information and lies.

And now this, just when you thought the world had run out of really stupid ideas, someome decides that looting an Ebola clinic would be a great plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28827091

I get the feeling that events are begining to overtake us and there is now very little genuinely helpful intervention that can be provided. Very soon all we will have left is the final contents of Pandora's box.....Hope.

ritter

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #137 on: August 18, 2014, 07:05:12 PM »
And now this, just when you thought the world had run out of really stupid ideas, someome decides that looting an Ebola clinic would be a great plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28827091

That seems an excellent way to learn first hand that ebola does, in fact, exist. Uhg.

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #138 on: August 18, 2014, 07:54:44 PM »
Quote
"The crowd was exuberant, having won this battle in their minds," he says. "And then they marched on the isolation ward and pushed through the door and basically pulled out the patients. Members of this mob literally pulled people out of the isolation ward. I saw a man carrying a small girl by one arm up in the air and she was screaming, and the crowd carried them off."

Part of the problem, Moore says, is that there's "a fair number of people ... who believe that the Ebola virus and the epidemic is a hoax, that it's not real after all, and it's a way for the Liberian government to bring in foreign money."

They have their ebola denialists--we have our gw denialists...not sure which is the more deadly in the long run.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/08/18/341308310/photographer-recalls-how-ebola-patients-were-carried-off-in-liberia
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #139 on: August 18, 2014, 08:50:53 PM »
Quote
"The crowd was exuberant, having won this battle in their minds," he says. "And then they marched on the isolation ward and pushed through the door and basically pulled out the patients. Members of this mob literally pulled people out of the isolation ward. I saw a man carrying a small girl by one arm up in the air and she was screaming, and the crowd carried them off."

Part of the problem, Moore says, is that there's "a fair number of people ... who believe that the Ebola virus and the epidemic is a hoax, that it's not real after all, and it's a way for the Liberian government to bring in foreign money."

They have their ebola denialists--we have our gw denialists...not sure which is the more deadly in the long run.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/08/18/341308310/photographer-recalls-how-ebola-patients-were-carried-off-in-liberia

AGW denialists...no contest.

Milret2

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #140 on: August 18, 2014, 09:05:39 PM »
Mean while ... a new article about conditions in Lagos Nigeria. The only good thing in this report I see is that the Nigerian government decided that "nanosilver" was not an appropriate treatment.

http://saharareporters.com/2014/08/17/nigeria-hasn%E2%80%99t-given-priority-ebola-treatment-abandons-nano-silver-treatment

By the way, if anyone needs to lose some sleep tonight regards the situation in Liberia where that clinic was evacuated by a "mob" that took blood stained sheets and other materials from the clinic  l wonder if that could be a means of waging asymmetrical biologic warfare by some groups in Nigeria or elsewhere. I think I will go and fix myself a large drink now.

Laurent

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #141 on: August 20, 2014, 02:10:12 PM »
Ebola crisis: A doctor's view from Sierra Leone
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28852352

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #142 on: August 21, 2014, 12:26:50 AM »
New numbers in--cases and deaths still rising exponentially (by official numbers, anyway--we know that there are many, perhaps a majority, of cases not being reported for one reason or another; we just don't know how many. Would that qualify as a 'known unknown'?)





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_virus_outbreak

Both total cases and number of new cases per day are doubling about every month. Deaths lag this by a bit.

Raw numbers, available at the above wiki site which gets them from WHO, as of Aug. 18:

Total cases: 2473, up 233 from two days previous (a rate which, extrapolated, would put the doubling time at about 20 days.)

Total deaths: 1350, up 121 from two days previous (again, extrapolated, this would put doubling time at about 20 days; in both cases, if this new rate of increase persists it would mark a big acceleration in the rate of acceleration, especially in deaths. No one thinks that this thing can be gotten under control in less than 6 months. At that point, if this rate of increase continues, cases would be in the millions.)

(I see, though, that they show only four deaths in Nigeria, but recent news accounts mention a fifth--the top doctor that treated the Minnesotan who came there from Liberia: http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Top-doctor-is-Nigerias-fifth-Ebola-death-20140820)
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 12:57:16 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Laurent

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #143 on: August 21, 2014, 09:12:05 PM »
US Ebola patient Kent Brantly 'thrilled to be alive'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-28885753

dorlomin

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #144 on: August 23, 2014, 12:05:46 AM »
Ebola has nothing to do with climate change.
It is also a pipsqueak of a disease. There are transmittable diseases that kill 1000 times more people every year than Ebola has so far. 3 orders of magnitude and they do it every year. It is simply a load of wailing for the press.

This simply outs those who have latched onto climate change as yet another doom story to wallow in.

Ifuckinglovescience nails it.
5 Diseases You Should Be More Afraid Of Than Ebola



Take it for granted you are wrong.
Just try to work out what about and why.

JimD

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #145 on: August 23, 2014, 01:35:20 AM »
Ebola has nothing to do with climate change.

A complete misunderstanding.  The issue is not about what causes ebola it is about how we deal with such crises as collapse (largely caused by climate change and exceeding the Earth's carrying capacity) progresses.  The responses are likely to be less competent, use less resources and be more authoritarian as time goes on.  We wait to see what the end result of this epidemic turns out to be.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

SteveMDFP

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #146 on: August 23, 2014, 02:03:34 AM »
Ebola has nothing to do with climate change.
It is also a pipsqueak of a disease. There are transmittable diseases that kill 1000 times more people every year than Ebola has so far. 3 orders of magnitude and they do it every year. It is simply a load of wailing for the press.

This simply outs those who have latched onto climate change as yet another doom story to wallow in.

Ifuckinglovescience nails it.
5 Diseases You Should Be More Afraid Of Than Ebola

Beyond Jim's take on the applicability to climate change, it's also possisble that the epidemic is a result of climate change.  It's a zoonosis -- a disease transmitted to humans from animals.  As climates change, animals may come into new patterns of contact with humans.  We may see other novel zoonoses emerge.

The article cited is just plain wrong.  Ebola is poorly understood and vastly more lethal than anything listed there.  Numbers are growing exponentially (literally), and nobody has any idea when the death curve will plateau.  Might be 2,000 deaths, 2 million, or 2 billion.   Sure, it could suddenly come to a halt soon, but I think that's less probable than exceeding 2 million deaths in the next year.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #147 on: August 23, 2014, 04:42:32 PM »
Many, if not most, of the most virulent diseases that plague humanity are the result of disease transfers from other species...malaria, lyme disease, West Nile, flu, ebola etc. Many of these diseases are on the march, a direct result of AGW.

Did AGW create West Nile virus? Of course not! Is it allowing for the spread into more temperate zones? Of course.

Michael Hauber

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #148 on: August 23, 2014, 11:08:15 PM »
Ebola has nothing to do with climate change.
It is also a pipsqueak of a disease. There are transmittable diseases that kill 1000 times more people every year than Ebola has so far. 3 orders of magnitude and they do it every year. It is simply a load of wailing for the press.

This simply outs those who have latched onto climate change as yet another doom story to wallow in.

Ifuckinglovescience nails it.
5 Diseases You Should Be More Afraid Of Than Ebola

Going on past statistics influenza has killed far more people than Ebola.  However past statistics say that ebola should not have killed as many as it already has - so past statistics are no longer a reliable guide on what may happen.  Hopefully this outbreak will be limited as past outbreaks have been, and never spread beyond Africa.  However there are no iron-clad guarantees of this, and I think this unknown factor is a reasonable reason to fear this disease more than influenza.

Of course there is a big unknown factor with the development of anti-biotic resistance.  Which is worse, a world were ebola is running rampant?  Or a world were bacterial infections cannot be cured?  I don't know.  Which is more likely to happen?  I don't know.  Equally scary in my opinion.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

wili

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #149 on: August 24, 2014, 12:40:12 AM »
Does anyone know of any other deadly disease with no known cure whose cases and deaths have been doubling about every month for the last five months or so?

No one seems to think this will be anywhere near under control in less than six or even nine months.

I leave it to you to do the math: We are now officially at 2615 cases and 1427 deaths.

(Everyone who knows about the situation agrees that the actual numbers are at least double and possibly quadruple these.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."