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Author Topic: Pathogens and their impacts  (Read 96651 times)

Pragma

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #300 on: July 06, 2019, 07:18:09 PM »
Just out of curiosity what do you consider slow?

several weeks to diagnosis but virulently contagious long before that...

I am, of course, being gloomy and sarcastic. In my darkest moods, a global pandemic seems the only way out of the current crisis...would be best if the highest fatality rates occur in those people with rich diets and high caloric intake.

There is a second way, perhaps. I think our problem, besides the obvious population and consumption, is system complexity, which itself requires huge amounts of energy.

The fastest way to reduce complexity is a very large CME. It would result in an almost instant end to industrial civilization, hopefully flatlining CO2 concentrations and would affect the richest the hardest. I would guess that at least a billion or so wouldn't even notice that it had happened. Whoever survives would then have to weather the temperature bump when aerosols drop out.

Either way, not a pretty picture.

As long as natural CO2e feedbacks don't overtake the situation, that is the best we could hope for and it would be a waiting game after that.

*Edit*I should have typed:

the "best" we could hope for

Did I mention the nuclear plants, uncontrolled either due to staff loss or technology loss?
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 08:02:06 PM by Pragma »

kassy

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #301 on: July 06, 2019, 08:40:18 PM »
That would work. But it´s not a pathogen.

#SH i think that several weeks would be pushing it.
Nature optimizes and for example flu is seasonal so it can not wait for weeks. It needs to get the push going so it has 1-4 days or so.

The pathogen has its own timing. After infection the cellular machinery starts cranking out copies and at some point it will burst the host cell. IIRC 6-8 hours before copies were made and then the actual cell gets punctured a couple of cycles after that.

A pandemic and a CME are basically just other ways of croaking all together while the whole key point is keeping an open future so our kids can actually have a live with choices....some stupid etc.


Pragma

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #302 on: July 06, 2019, 08:54:14 PM »
That would work. But it´s not a pathogen.

You're right Kassy, but I thought it was pertinent.

No intention to hijack the thread.

Regarding pathogens, I seem to remember something about how it's not in an organism's best interest to be too effective. (Sorry for the anthropomorphism :) )

That said, a highly transmissible, high lethality pathogen could emerge spontaneously and wipe itself out by wiping out the host.

kassy

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Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« Reply #303 on: July 06, 2019, 09:36:27 PM »
Yeah the pathogens do not want to kill us they just want to replicate.

All zoonotic diseases become less virulent over time and a lot of virulence is missmatched processes. In wild ducks flu is an intestinal disease while for us it is a respiratory disease all down to relative distribution of 2,3 and 2,6 alfa sialic sites.

The most interesting historicical pandemic is the spanish flu because that was actually simmering in the human reservoir for a while and then turned deadly.

Meanwhile we got to see if we can stop humans from eradicating humans...