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JimD

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World record low temp in Antarctica
« on: December 10, 2013, 04:01:21 PM »
I have not seen this posted before.

NASA data indicates that a all time record low  of -135.8F was set in Aug 2010.  On July 31, 2013 the low was -135.3F.  Previous record was -128.6F July 31, 1986.

My curiosity is whether the ozone hole and changing weather conditions related to AGW are contributing to these unusually low temperatures?   Or is this just better ability to collect data.


http://www.aol.com/article/2013/12/10/antarctica-hit-ridiculously-low-record-cold-temperature/20785456/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2013, 04:46:41 PM »
JimD,

While I do not have time now to provide references, it is my recollection that ozone hole is clearly contributing to this trend of historical low temperatures over East Antarctica, both due to the southward migration and acceleration of the circumpolar westerly winds, and due to an increase in katabatic winds in East Antarctica associated with the ozone hole.  Note also that the Antarctic Pennisula has one of the highest rates of warming in the world, and that the WAIS is warmed by telecommunication of heat from the Pacific, and thus has a high rate of surface warming.  Also note that most of the ice melting in Antarctica is related to changes in the ocean currents that are melting the ice shelves/sheets/glacier from the bottom/grounding-line; and also that the increased katabatic wind is scouring/blowing more snow into the ocean around Antarctica (a mechanism that the IPCC AR5 does not consider in its calculations of SLR).

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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JimD

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2013, 08:05:19 PM »
Thanks ASLR,

I kind of thought it was ozone hole related but was not sure.  Pretty darn cold!

Statistically speaking going from -128 to -135 is a big jump.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Andreas T

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2013, 09:52:25 PM »
It's a bit strange to bring this up now because this year's southern hemishere winter has been well warmer than average in antarctica, notably in east antarctica which is one of the few places on the planet which hasn't warmed of recent decades.
This record cold temperature was found in a place where previous temperature readings don't exist as far as I know, so it is a lowest recorded temperature in the sense of finding a particularly cold place we didn't know existed.

Andreas T

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2013, 09:59:52 PM »
I forgot to mention the map I posted shows average anomalies for the last 180 days, presently anomalies in antarctica are negative so July and August and September was even warmer than this chart shows.

AbruptSLR

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2013, 01:02:16 AM »
For what it is worth, I would like to note that most current global circulation models, GCMs, have more difficulty matching the trends of the historical weather record in Antarctica than in almost any other part of the world.  Frequentists would say that until these models give reliable projections for Antarctica that we should be reticent to acknowledge change in Antarctica; while I believe that high uncertainty means that society should take extra precautions until we know better.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2013, 02:03:51 AM by AbruptSLR »
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JimD

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2013, 01:48:29 AM »
Quote
It's a bit strange to bring this up now because this year's southern hemishere winter has been well warmer than average in antarctica, notably in east antarctica which is one of the few places on the planet which hasn't warmed of recent decades.

I just saw it today and found it interesting.  I do not know when it was announced. 

I have always been fascinated by extremes.  The hottest I have ever experienced is 131 F in the Sahara and minus 50 F in Wyoming.  Nice spread at 181!  And I experienced a chill factor of minus 100 F once (multiple frostbite fingers and toes - ouch!).
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Andreas T

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2013, 04:39:11 PM »
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ has an overview of the past SH winter season for antarctica
Quote
... At the same time, part of the interior has seen record warm winter events, with several daily temperature records set at the South Pole . These warm events are also linked to the reduction in westerly wind strength in August to October. Weaker westerly winds allow more north-south flow into Antarctica, occasionally bringing relatively warm air masses into the interior. Between September 11 and September 15, usually a time of unimaginable cold, four daily maximum temperature records were set, in one case by more than 8.5 degrees Celsius (15.3 degrees Fahrenheit). On September 13, the temperature reached –27.7 degrees Celsius (–17.9 degrees

AbruptSLR

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Re: World record low temp in Antarctica
« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2013, 05:16:45 PM »
Andreas T,

You may want to read Mayewski et al 2013 discussed in posts #25 and #26 in the following link (see also the link below to a free access pdf and citation, below), which indicates that with further GHG emissions and when the Antarctic ozone hole heals itself, then there may be abrupt fluctuations in the Antarctic atmospheric circulation system, which could result in much larger and more frequent swings in Antarctic surface temperatures such as what you referenced:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,322.0.html#lastPost


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.2593/pdf

Mayewski, P.A., Maasch, K.A., Dixon, D., Sneed, S.B., Oglesby, R., Korotkikh, E., Potocki, M., Grigholm, B., Kreutz, K., Kurbatov, A.V., Spaulding, N., Stagger, J.C., Taylor, K.C., Steig, E.J., White, J., Bertler, N.A.N., Goodwin, I., Simões, J.C., Jaña, R., Kraus, S. and Fastook, J. 2013. "West Antarctica’s Sensitivity to Natural and Human Forced Climate Change Over the Holocene", Journal of Quaternary Science 28(1), pp 40-48. DOI: 10.1002/jqs.2593.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson