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Gray-Wolf

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Abrupt Warming Event
« on: February 26, 2013, 07:22:33 PM »
After looking at the albedo impacts since 07', and the prospect of this years Greenland Albedo collapse, I have to wonder if we should be looking at an abrupt period climate warming?

I know that past Warming events have involved the waning of vast ice sheets but surely any drop in albedo will bring about a similar chain of self reinforcing events?

So what do you guys think?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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TerryM

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2013, 07:52:36 PM »
After looking at the albedo impacts since 07', and the prospect of this years Greenland Albedo collapse, I have to wonder if we should be looking at an abrupt period climate warming?

I know that past Warming events have involved the waning of vast ice sheets but surely any drop in albedo will bring about a similar chain of self reinforcing events?

So what do you guys think?

AWE, (Abrupt Warming Events), may be overshadowed near term by the AWE, (Abrupt Weirding Events), that we're now experiencing.

Even with NW Greenland warming at a degree every 3 years & the dark prospects for albedo ahead I don't see Greenland threatening much more than an increase in seal level.

When the Arctic ice melts out in some not to distant summer I do expect at the minimum to be in Shock and AWE in one sense or the other.

Terry

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2013, 10:43:21 AM »
Thanks Terry!

I do worry that we are currently sheltered from the worst of what AGW itself has to offer with both the scale of climate inertia and the 'Dimming' that we currently enjoy.

The Arctic changes show me that climate inertia is being overcome (I'm sure now the Ozone hole appears 'on the mend' that the W.A.I.S. will rapidly change to rival Greenlands changes?) and some of the figures banded about that give a feel for what the 'dimming' is saving us from (the 0.7c that brings permafrost up to a point that is sure to melt it?) give me to understand that we are already in a very bad way even before we look at what the Albedo flip, across the north, may bring us?

I too feel that 'climate weirding' is to be a large part of how this 'new energy' (to the climate system) is employed but that this will also serve to help global temps rise. Even though we appear to be in a period of strong negative forcings we do not see this reflected in the global temps so what will occur once we enter into positive forcings once more?

The current PDO is such a forcing and I believe that, once the -Ve phase is ended and we make an assesment to see where the beginning/end were, that the change to PDO negative occurred  back in 98'. We have seen papers that suggest the PDO is now showing influence by AGW forcing and so I'd suggest that SST's in the area are artificially impacted meaning that 'neutral' temps would have been negative temps in past -ve's. as such we may well be approaching the end of the PDO-ve phase ( the 'peak period spreading over the late noughties into 2011/12) with a move toward 'neutral' temp forcings (which would once have been  -ve temps) . Are we about to see a rebound in global temps both from this -ve forcing 'drop off' and an increase in the Arctic forcings?

Should Asia continue to 'clean up' the worst of it's particulate pollution then TSI levels may also respond giving us a rise in TSI even as we enter into another solar min?

Wouldn't it be odd if all those 'Maunder Min' folk had to put up with a rise in TSI over another extended solar min? Though I'm sure solar variation plays it's part in climate warming/cooling to try and pin all of our changes on it does not make sense to me so the sooner it is 'debunked' in the public eye the better.

As for the 'A.W.E.? Well the current mess across the Beaufort and from Pole to Fram may serve as a scary precurser to what the rest of the northern summer has to offer.

I stood on our Moors , after the flood episodes had passed, with my kids last summer and watched as a couple of storms moved in. I pointed out to them that the rotation we could see would be the kind of thing we would see in the mid-west prior to a tornado. I pointed a likely drag down of the cloud as a point where we might see a tornado form only to watch it descend 4 times with the last 'drag down' producing a huge funnel cloud over Wakefield (some folk may have seen the images in the press?). I do have to wonder what another 'notch up' in weirding will do to such events?

I never imagined I'd see the rainfall rates that brought us our 'flach Flood' event and I certainly never thought I'd see a huge Funnel cloud form in front of me (only 100m's from touching down?) but now I have (and all within a 6 week period). If things are ramping up further this year then what should I expect this season?

KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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wanderer

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2013, 06:29:29 PM »
What do you think about Paul Beckwiths projections?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.at/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html

"My projections for our planet conditions when the sea-ice has all vanished year round (PIOMAS graph projects about 2024 for this; I forecast 2020 for this) are:
Average global temperature: 22°C (+/- 1°C)
(rise of 6-8°C above present day value of about 15°C)
Average equatorial temperature: 32°C
(rise of 2 °C above present day value of 30°C)
Average Arctic pole temperature: 10°C
(rise of 30°C above present day value of -20°C)
Average Antarctica pole temperature: -46°C
(rise of 4°C above present day value of -50°C)
Water vapor in atmosphere: higher by 50%
(rise of 4% over last 30 years, i.e. about 1.33% rise per decade)
Average temperature gradient from equator to North pole: 22°C
(decrease of 28°C versus present day value of 50°C)
Very weak jet streams (driven by N-S humidity gradient and weak temperature gradient as opposed to existing large temperature gradient)

- Result: very fragmented, disjointed weather systems
- Basic weather: tropical rainforest like in some regions; arid deserts in others with few regions in between."


Do you think this could actually happen?!

ritter

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2013, 06:46:59 PM »
Do you think this could actually happen?!

I suppose his guess is as good as any. We are in uncharted territory here. Models have proven to be inadequate, so who really knows?

Bruce Steele

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2013, 07:25:50 PM »
Gray-Wolf  I also think the current phase of the PDO has somehow contributed to the global heating trend post 1998.  Fish scale studies in mud cores taken in an anaerobic basin near Santa Barbara show the PDO cycle ( warm to cool waters  with associated sardine or anchovy populations  ) for thousands of years. The pre-1945 warm phase paralleled historically large sardine catches, 1945-1972 cold phase and the 1972-1998 warm phase were about 25 years each. I don't know if the duration of the current cold water phase will hold another decade but I am certain when we return to the warm phase of the PDO cycle, we will see more very large  el niño's.       

gfwellman

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2013, 07:58:17 PM »
Do you think this could actually happen?!
Yes, but not on that timetable.  The temps are right for a perennially ice-free arctic, but we won't have the forcing for that until 2100 (earlier if the permafrost feedback is much worse than expected, never if we get our political act together soon).  It's a *long* way from ice-free summers to ice-free winters.

JackTaylor

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2013, 10:09:20 PM »
It's a *long* way from ice-free summers to ice-free winters.

Yes it is.  We have to acknowledge that.

But explaining abrupt warm - weird events to my Daffodils, which "bloomed" their first open flower on 21 JAN 2013 @ a latitude of 34.8997 N, gives me cause to wonder what about next year.

Daffodils used to bloom for me around the second week of February.

And about 50 years ago I remember a discussion about they almost bloomed in time for Valentines Day (14 FEB).

Dromicosuchus

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2013, 03:21:27 AM »
Considering the possibility of a convective cloud feedback kicking in, I'm not so sure that there'd be such a long gap between ice free in summer to ice free in winter.  That said, I do agree that Paul Beckwith's projections are far, far too pessimistic; I can't see a global temperature jump that dramatic happening in seven years.  Seventy, maybe, but seven?  The thermal inertia of the world ocean is just too large.

(Edit:)  Oh heavens.  I just read the rest of the opinions from the linked article, including Douglas Spence's apocalyptic contribution.  I thought I was pessimistic about the future, but compared to him, I'm Dr. Pangloss.  He appears to be expecting human extinction in four years, give or take.  Goodness knows the situation is serious, but...bless his poor, frightened heart, it ain't that bad.  Planetary-scale disasters take time.  Heck, even the effects of horrifically sudden ones like the K-T event didn't finish wiping out all their victims until hundreds of thousands of years after the initial blow.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2013, 03:46:43 AM by Dromicosuchus »

crandles

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2013, 02:21:47 PM »
Steve Bloom seems to remember Paul Beckwith very confidently predicting no sea ice in 2012. (All SEARCH predictions were also badly out so maybe that isn't all that bad.)

I don't normally go for conspiracy theories but... Do you think that page might be an arranged stitch up where the students give extreme scenarios, the purpose being to make Professor Wadhams and his views look calm and measured?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2013, 08:54:28 PM »
I've been seeing a few 'extreme' pro-AGW sites appearing that have my 'spidey senses tingling' too Crandles!

The denier sites seem to have been in a self destruct mode for a few years now (if you read the 'comments', i.e. the clientèle they attract) so maybe some well hidden 'Fossil Fuel' money is being made available as a way of showing what 'loons' folk who have concerns are?

I do think the loss of ice must impact climate but I also feel that it is the erosion of winter ice, and the deep cold it allows above, that will sweep in changes?

I believe once we see a long spell of 'ice free and under sun' Arctic ocean then the atmosphere above will help slow ice reformation due to a higher humidity (Arctic sea smoke and fog)?

As we see this year Sea ice thinness can lead to events that may well hasten spring breakup and speed along the ice melt (eating away at both ends of winter ice cover).

If summer can impact the Circulation of the northern hemisphere circulation then what will a 30c anom do over water that should have been frozen (with -30c above instead of water at zero?).

Folk are still pointing at cold plunges as if they were a proof that warming is not happening. What happens when there is less and less cold to 'plunge'??

KOYAANISQATSI

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Dromicosuchus

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2013, 11:35:24 PM »
Eh, I'm not comfortable postulating conspiracies.  Any collection of people will inevitably have a hysterical fringe, and there's no reason to suppose that folks who accept that global warming is a serious issue would be any more immune to that than any other group.  Remember, not everyone who accepts the findings of modern climatology is going to do so because they actually understand said findings.  There are, inevitably, going to be plenty of individuals who accept the science for exactly the same reasons that many conservatives reject it:  It's a position that's associated with their particular political alignment.  They won't necessarily have any understanding of the constraints of Earth's climate system, and some of 'em are bound to end up mistaking things like The Day After Tomorrow for sound, sensible predictions.

Of course, having said that I'm not so sure that that applies to this specific case.  Although Douglas Spence seems not to have any particular education in climatology, and might well be a case of a smart person who's grabbed on to an idea and has begun weaving sophisticated rationalizations in support of it, from the looks of it Paul Beckwith has some legitimate expertise in the area.  Heck, he certainly has more expertise than I do, so perhaps I'm the one who's weaving rationalizations to support my preconceived notions.  His ideas seem pretty out there compared to the statements I've read by other climate scientists, though, so I feel reasonably safe assigning them to the fringe.

TerryM

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2013, 11:45:29 PM »
I expect big, rapid changes once summer ice is gone. Perhaps not as bad as Beckwith's, but bad enough to disrupt food production in a very short time. Fortunately our fearless leaders have taken prudent precautions and have decades of food in the larder - haven't they?

I don't expect much of a plateau between seasonally ice free and permanently ice free, driven primarily by winter fogs following summer's albedo. All that sensible heat has to be accounted for also. I don't just consider it likely that we've messed with the pooch, I think the bitch is about to drop her litter.

Terry

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2013, 03:26:05 PM »
I think very-informed amateurs like you guys are actually in a better position than scientists from individual fields of study to look at everything and see a big picture that they can't. Not just that you're free to prognosticate because you don't have a reputation at stake, but that you're free to look at ALL the data ALL the time. The same goes for amateur birders and astronomers who discover things. I just look at a few – Jennifer Francis, Jason Box, and Semiletov/Shakhova and I believe that things are much closer to the runaway point than each of them is saying. if I understood things the way you seem to, I'd probably be even more convinced.
Still living in the bush in eastern Ontario. Gave up on growing annual veggies. Too much drought.

Dromicosuchus

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2013, 07:05:44 PM »
Maybe so, Lynn, but to my mind that's a dangerous path to wander down.  Better informed than the general populace we may be, but there's a big difference between us and, say, amateur birders or astronomers.  Their discoveries are primarily observational in nature; spotting some spot of light that shouldn't be where it is, or seeing a bird that doesn't make sense in its location.  Once that's found, and the necessary checks to make sure that there's no mistake are made, they're sitting pretty.  We, however, are making no direct observations and much of our "effort," such as it is, is devoted to qualitative predictions of the future.  That's a fuzzy, vague endeavor, at the best of times. 

Now, mind, in saying that I don't mean at all to belittle either Neven or the intelligent, well informed, and thoughtful people who frequent his blog and these forums; both have taught me an awful lot, and I've nothing but the highest respect for them.  But we should be very, very careful about dubbing ourselves "experts."  That can go very, very wrong, as witness the comments section on, say, every single WUWT post.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2013, 08:00:00 PM »
Gray-Wolf..

I'm inclined to agree with Terry. I think Abrupt Weirding is our near term fate.

In the U.S. we have seen a steady rise in the annual incidence of tornadoes, 50% more in the past decade compared to the 1970's. While there has been an associated increase in damage, this has been mitigated by the low population densities of tornado alley......

http://www.arcgis.com/explorer/?present=fcd4ae7155f64d75b0058573bb87307b

 and little increase in tornado intensity on the Fujita scale. In the past decade tornadoes have begun to show up in weird places, Brooklyn and Queens NY for example.

50% of tornadoes in the U.S. travel 50 kilometers or less. The stronger tornadoes (F4 and F5) last longer. Between 10 and 20% of these last over 100 kilometers.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/lengthwidth.pdf

With wind speeds of 267-322 km/h, an F4 will demolish a building. With wind speeds in excess of 322km/h, F5's have been known to peel asphalt off a street. These strongest tornadoes frequently develop a wedge with widths up to one kilometer. A F4 or F5 tornado that travels 100 kilometers would traverse Wales. With population densities that are orders of magnitude higher than "tornado alley" such a tornado would be devasting.

« Last Edit: March 12, 2013, 05:01:49 PM by Shared Humanity »

wanderer

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2013, 05:17:50 PM »
I also think worst case scenarios from AGW believers pose a real threat. They only serve to support a sceptical public audience and set back any progress in causing a serious discussion of real impacts that are affecting us now. I also believe these real impacts are occurring everywhere and we are simply struggling to establish solid "cause/effect" links. Yet the scientific community is working on this.

Three climate scientists, Charles H. Greene, Jennifer Francis and Bruce C. Monger wrote an article in the scientific journal "Oceanography"

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/

.....that stated a "warming global climate that melts sea ice in the Arctic is driving changes to the jet stream — upper atmospheric winds that shape weather across North America — and helped create the conditions that mutated Hurricane Sandy into a hybrid storm".

Truly encouraging is the fact that mainstream media has picked this up and is reporting it. It is not by accident that a New Jersey newspaper picked this one up.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/03/hurricane_sandy_arctic_ice.html

I am sure that any additional media which speaks directly to an affected area would do the same if they had the research in front of them. Would it make sense for there to be an active effort here to steer local media to relevant research. Any research speaking about drought impacts in the plains would likely get reported in newspapers in this region. We could build political and policy momentum by doing this.

vox_mundi

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2019, 10:03:04 PM »
Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Past Linked to Abrupt Climate Events   
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-02-arctic-sea-ice-loss-linked.html

A new study on ice cores shows that reductions in sea ice in the Arctic in the period between 30-100,000 years ago led to major climate events. During this period, Greenland temperatures rose by as much as 16 degrees Celsius. The results are published today (Monday 11 February) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

Louise C. Sime el al., "Impact of abrupt sea ice loss on Greenland water isotopes during the last glacial period," PNAS (2019).
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rboyd

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2019, 02:17:59 AM »
Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013

One of Paul Beckwith's earlier forecasts, although I have to give him the benefit that he hadn't finished his PhD at the time.

I tend to feel that we are on a equilibrium surface at the moment, getting closer and closer to the edge. The size and speed of the move to the next equilibrium surface is simply unknown, but a lot of the possible feedbacks point to a rather rapid abruptness. We can also stay hanging on to the edge of our current equilibria for quite an extended time.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2019, 04:12:36 AM »
Gray-Wolf..

I'm inclined to agree with Terry. I think Abrupt Weirding is our near term fate.

In the U.S. we have seen a steady rise in the annual incidence of tornadoes, 50% more in the past decade compared to the 1970's. While there has been an associated increase in damage, this has been mitigated by the low population densities of tornado alley......

http://www.arcgis.com/explorer/?present=fcd4ae7155f64d75b0058573bb87307b

 and little increase in tornado intensity on the Fujita scale. In the past decade tornadoes have begun to show up in weird places, Brooklyn and Queens NY for example.

50% of tornadoes in the U.S. travel 50 kilometers or less. The stronger tornadoes (F4 and F5) last longer. Between 10 and 20% of these last over 100 kilometers.

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/lengthwidth.pdf

With wind speeds of 267-322 km/h, an F4 will demolish a building. With wind speeds in excess of 322km/h, F5's have been known to peel asphalt off a street. These strongest tornadoes frequently develop a wedge with widths up to one kilometer. A F4 or F5 tornado that travels 100 kilometers would traverse Wales. With population densities that are orders of magnitude higher than "tornado alley" such a tornado would be devasting.

Actually, tornadoes have not increased in frequency, and there has been a measurable decrease in intensity.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

rboyd

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2019, 05:03:45 PM »
Agreed, the "UN FCCC system" has turned into a force for cognitive dissonance, allowing us to continue to believe things that are being proven patently false by actual real world events - like being able to reconcile endless growth with combating climate change. The next IPCC report will be interesting reading as to what is the next wheeze to reconcile the unreconcilable, maybe ramping up BECCS and fossil fuel CCS even more, adding in speculative DACS (Direct Air Capture), or perhaps even a little SRM (Solar Radiation Management). A menu for self-deception.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2019, 06:18:16 PM »
I think this stands as a record breaking event...responses to 2 comments I made nearly 6 years ago.  :D

I'm so old, I don't remember making them. :-[

Aluminium

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2019, 12:01:52 PM »
There are enormous anomalies of monthly averages where ice retreat. In Russian Arctic islands over +10°C compared to 1981-2010 is not unusual today. For example, Wiese Island got anomaly +10,6°C in December 2018. Yearly averages without summer in attachment.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Abrupt Warming Event
« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2019, 02:37:07 PM »
There are a few numbers that make me sit up and take notice.

Apparently it takes 70 calories of energy to melt a 1 cm cube of ice.

Subject a 1cm cube of water to 1 calorie of energy and its temp rises by 1C

Ice/snow reflects away over 90% of the solar energy coming in.

Open water absorbs over 90% of incoming solar.

We saw a paper last week looking at the flooding of our Stratosphere with Water Vapour via taller storms punching through the tropopause and delivering moisture into the Stratosphere.

The deeper the moisture rich area is surely increases the area that holds onto heat and so the potential heating then available?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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