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Author Topic: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North  (Read 4244 times)

Bob Wallace

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Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« on: December 16, 2013, 10:52:11 PM »

Looking back through recent years it appears that winters are getting warmer (as we would expect with increasing GHG cover).

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Is anyone plotting temperatures by month over the years?


jdallen

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2013, 01:11:00 AM »

Looking back through recent years it appears that winters are getting warmer (as we would expect with increasing GHG cover).

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Is anyone plotting temperatures by month over the years?

Sounds lika a useful enterprise.  Just doing a quick year by year view of graphs compared to 2013, I'm struck not by the spikes up, but rather how at their lowest, 2013 lows are about 5C warmer than lows in recent years.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2013, 04:25:31 AM »
I've tried to download the data but get a "Problem accessing Web Application" message.

Probably because I don't know what I'm doing....

Just looking back year by year it seems that winters started getting a lot warmer in 2005.

Doesn't seem like a hard job to plot once one had the data.

Pmt111500

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2013, 08:39:29 AM »
somebody here used some sort of program to extract the values from the graphs themselves, this could be of use. as the graphs are ~500 px wide this method should be pretty accurate. Sadly they're not all the same height and width so the straightforward method of overlaying them takes a long time...

Wipneus

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2013, 09:05:04 AM »
If I remember correctly, Chris Reynolds already cracked this nut. Have a look at his "dosbat" blog.

Reanalysis data is suffering from inhomogenities though, be careful with drawing conclusions from long term trends.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2013, 05:01:28 PM »
Would this warmer winter trend result in less or weaker  ice being formed during the winter months?

Neven

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2013, 01:12:44 AM »
I believe Tamino wrote about this too.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2013, 04:53:54 PM »
Dosbat Winter Warming and Sea Ice Thinning.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/winter-warming-and-sea-ice-thinning.html

Dosbat GISS LOTI and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/giss-loti-and-ncepncar-reanalysis.html

Be careful about drawing long term conclusions about the DMI temperature data. It uses the ERA40 reanalysis system, Screen finds a discontinuity in 1997 that means long term trends and comparison should be done with care.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI4054.1

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2013, 07:56:00 AM »
Would this warmer winter trend result in less or weaker  ice being formed during the winter months?

It should, except as the warming is due to thinner ice, and thinner ice meaning more leads, it's hard to sort out how much the warming further reduces ice thickness.