I recall the lowest maximum extents on NSIDC were 2006, 2011, and 2007, in that order. 2014 is currently below 2006 and 2007 for the date, but basically tied with 2011. Anything close to these years by March will read to me as red flag. Also, because of what seems to be a very mild rest of winter for Europe in the forecasts, land snow extents could remain subdued on the European/Asian side and get melting started early. Similar set-up as 2007 and 2012, in that regard. It'll be interesting to see this season if there will be any association to be made between the performance of sea ice and the quickness of snow melt. Less snow would keep albedo lower and more allow more overall absorption of radiation. Compounded with low maximum ice extent, and 2014's ice could quickly turn south.
Although it's noteworthy that 2013's ice extent (this time last year) was also at a similar point before it reached close the average during the final laps of the freeze season.
El NiƱo looks likely for summer 2014 into 2015, but I haven't noticed many connections to its role on sea ice. It will probably make this year and the next very warm globally though, probably breaking the hottest year records on all indices (GISS, HadCRUT4, etc.)