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Jim

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2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« on: January 03, 2014, 11:18:23 PM »
Well, here we are in 2014, Happy New Year!

I'm sure we are all eager to see how will this year's Arctic Sea Ice Extent evolves as this year unfolds - it will be an interesting year, no doubt, with a possible El Nino developing in late summer/Autumn (Still too early to state anything more definite) and the vagaries of the weather stirring the pot.

Despite the apparent "Recovery" in sea ice extent last September, the current extent is, curiously, now lower than any other recorded year apart from 2010 (From NSIDC Charctic graph here)- perhaps this is due to the current blocking pattern over northern Europe injecting warm air from the south into the Arctic region, or maybe the prevailing wind patterns in the Arctic are helping to compact the ice - reducing extent and increasing the ice thickness?

What do you guys think?
How do you think things will change as we move towards maximum extent in March, and looking further ahead, what are your thoughts on the extent minimum in September?

pearscot

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2014, 05:24:59 PM »
I will be quite interested in seeing how much the sea ice continues to grow (or lack thereof) for the rest of the season. I think it would be quite astonishing if the 2013 summer ice extent went from being relatively large to one of the smallest over the winter season.  Additionally, I wonder what kind of patterns will set up over the summer, or if the ice will have another 'recovery' year. 
pls!

Jim

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2014, 07:19:20 PM »
Well, today's ice extent is running just (fractionally) behind this time last year and 2011 for lowest extent. Still not seeing any 'recovery' yet  :)

Oh, and look at the curious temperature split across the Arctic - has anyone seen this sort of thing before, I wonder?


deep octopus

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2014, 07:43:26 PM »
I recall the lowest maximum extents on NSIDC were 2006, 2011, and 2007, in that order. 2014 is currently below 2006 and 2007 for the date, but basically tied with 2011. Anything close to these years by March will read to me as red flag. Also, because of what seems to be a very mild rest of winter for Europe in the forecasts, land snow extents could remain subdued on the European/Asian side and get melting started early. Similar set-up as 2007 and 2012, in that regard. It'll be interesting to see this season if there will be any association to be made between the performance of sea ice and the quickness of snow melt. Less snow would keep albedo lower and more allow more overall absorption of radiation. Compounded with low maximum ice extent, and 2014's ice could quickly turn south.

Although it's noteworthy that 2013's ice extent (this time last year) was also at a similar point before it reached close the average during the final laps of the freeze season.

El NiƱo looks likely for summer 2014 into 2015, but I haven't noticed many connections to its role on sea ice. It will probably make this year and the next very warm globally though, probably breaking the hottest year records on all indices (GISS, HadCRUT4, etc.)

jdallen

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2014, 07:53:38 PM »
Well, today's ice extent is running just (fractionally) behind this time last year and 2011 for lowest extent. Still not seeing any 'recovery' yet  :)

Oh, and look at the curious temperature split across the Arctic - has anyone seen this sort of thing before, I wonder?

Welcome, Jim.

It is not unique at all, in and of itself.  Those sorts of temperature events while not common, certainly took place long before changes in climate started ramping up in the 80's.

What does appear to be unusual is how persistent that sort of pattern has been so far this winter.
This space for Rent.

Jim

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2014, 08:17:38 PM »
jdallen: "What does appear to be unusual is how persistent that sort of pattern has been so far this winter"

...As those in the US and the UK have found to our collective discomfort recently :(

ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2014, 09:09:21 PM »
Fascinating graphic Jim, it led me to go have a look at the pressure pattern. There's a high over the Eurasian side of the Arctic and a low over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, these are causing a dipole pattern drawing a stream of warm air off the Atlantic. Hence the warm band through the middle.
Source: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html


Jim

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2014, 11:33:11 PM »
Well, the Arctic appears to be heating up a bit!  :)
Hardly any dark blue anywhere, and precious little light blue either. All the cold seems to have moved to Siberia and the North Americas. Will it move back again before winter's end, I wonder?

ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2014, 08:53:59 PM »
Jim,

I think the warming in the Pacific sector of the pack is transitory. There's a ridge over the north Pacific from Alaska forming a dipole with a deep low over north of Kamchatka (Russia) that seems to be drawing in warmer air from the north Pacific.