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Author Topic: Sea Ice peak at or just before Y/E?  (Read 2325 times)

crandles

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Sea Ice peak at or just before Y/E?
« on: January 09, 2014, 03:51:53 PM »


It may be a bit of self fulfilling prophesy to suggest that if there is a peak at or just before the year end than there is a change in direction of the short term trend.

However it does seem to happen quite a bit in above graph or am I deluding myself?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Ice peak at or just before Y/E?
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2014, 02:12:22 AM »
crandles,

It is hard to tells based on statistics whether there is a pattern or not, but it might be possible that if the increased Antarctic sea ice extent is due to increased wind, then there may be more rafting of the sea ice resulting in thicker ice which then might not start to break-up until after the period of peak austral sunlight (in December).

In any event, you can see from the attached image that almost all of the Antarctic sea ice anomaly today is located in the Weddell Sea Area while the sea ice offshore of both the Amundsen and Ross Sea (on the Pacific Coast) is breaking-up now, which will soon expose the grounded ice to more storm and wave action.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Sea Ice peak at or just before Y/E?
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2014, 05:00:39 PM »
In reference to my last post in this thread, while I do not have time to find the reference, I recently read one opinion that the increased sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea may not only be associated with increase winds, but also due to an increase of FRIS sub-ice shelf melting (due to increase flow of warm CDW beneath the ice shelf) which then freshens the ocean water salinity which then promote the formation of sea ice, that is then blown northward by the wind so that more sea ice can be produced at the edge of the FRIS.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson