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Author Topic: Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)  (Read 2539 times)

wili

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Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)
« on: January 11, 2014, 05:12:52 AM »
Here's a pretty good overview of the latest science (up to September 2013) on our current predicament:

http://www.climatecodered.org/p/is-climate-change-already-dangerous.html

The whole thing is only 23 pages, and the second chapter is on the Arctic.

It feature's Wipneus's PIOMAS graph, among other things.

One point connected to plans for carbon emissions reductions:

Quote
Steinacher, Joos et al. explore the interaction of targets in emissions reductions, focussing on the 2ºC temperature goal. They find that when multiple climate targets are set (such as food production capacity, ocean acidity, atmospheric temperature), “allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone”. In fact, “When we consider all targets jointly, CO2 emissions have to be cut twice as much as if we only want to meet the 2ºC target.”

http://www.climatecodered.org/2013/09/is-climate-change-already-dangerous-3.html
« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 08:29:47 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2014, 07:03:11 PM »
Tamino has an excellent--even by his high standards--new post on why there is no hiatus:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/#more-6942

Global Temperature: The Post-1998 Surprise

The crucial graphs:




"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2014, 03:25:20 PM »
Here is the complete article by Steinacher, Joos & Stocker:
http://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/uploads/Multiple_climate_targets_Allowable_carbon_July_2013_.pdf

I haven't read it yet, but will do so now...

Shared Humanity

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Re: Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2014, 03:59:54 PM »
wili....

Looking at that chart, you could make a strong argument that the warming trend has accelerated in the last 2 decades.

wili

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Re: Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2014, 05:26:24 PM »
Good point. I think if you 'corrected' for El Nino and La Nina years, that would probably come out even more strongly.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

deep octopus

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Re: Is Climate Change Already Dangerous (Yes)
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2014, 05:34:01 PM »
Just my two cents, but the expectation is that 2014 will be warmer than 2013, and in the scenario of a possible El Niño, this would put it well over Tamino's trend line, again. It's also clear from the HadCRUT4 data, that the only years that sit below the trend line are La Niña years (2000, 2008, 2011, and 2012), even as 2001, 2006, and 2009 (also La Niña years) were above the trend. La Niña year 1999 is on the trend. This would argue that forcings outside of ENSO (hmm...) are pressuring temperature upwards.