Just my two cents, but the expectation is that 2014 will be warmer than 2013, and in the scenario of a possible El Niño, this would put it well over Tamino's trend line, again. It's also clear from the HadCRUT4 data, that the only years that sit below the trend line are La Niña years (2000, 2008, 2011, and 2012), even as 2001, 2006, and 2009 (also La Niña years) were above the trend. La Niña year 1999 is on the trend. This would argue that forcings outside of ENSO (hmm...) are pressuring temperature upwards.