2018 ENSO

[Rodius]

It is just sitting around zero.

The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño forming in 2018 is around 70%; triple the normal likelihood.

Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain above El Niño thresholds, but atmospheric indicators have yet to show a consistent El Niño signal and are presently neutral. This suggests the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean have yet to couple (reinforce each other), a process that would sustain an El Niño, and result in widespread global impacts. Model outlooks indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds in the coming months.

El Niño ALERT is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur; it is an indication that most typical precursors of an event are in place. If an El Niño were to develop, it would be considered a very late starting event.

[Pmt111500]

The same chance of a later (february start instead of dec) than usual el Nino reported by wmo,
 https://www.ecowatch.com/el-nino-2019-wmo-2621655246.html
Outgassing of co2 from hot surface waters might thus not be seen as well as usual as it would co-incide with the northern spring growth.

[Rodius]

Has shifted upwards to about +3

El Nino is still on alert.

Here is the wrap-up according to BOM Australia

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral, despite some indicators reaching El Niño levels. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in the tropical Indian Ocean weakened in the past fortnight.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have now exceeded El Niño thresholds for more than a month. However atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloud patterns, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have not reached El Niño levels. This indicates that the tropical ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other and remain 'uncoupled'. This coupling is required to establish and sustain any ENSO event, and is what drives widespread Australian and global impacts.

Recently, trade winds in the western Pacific have weakened in association with the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Some models suggest they may remain weakened for at least the next fortnight.

International climate models predict sea surface temperatures to remain at or above El Niño levels in December and January. By February, all but one of the eight surveyed models remain above El Niño thresholds. El Niño effects in Australia over summer typically include higher fire risk, greater chance of heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.

[wolfpack513]

The low frequency standing wave (blues near the dateline) over the ENSO region has been interfered with by MJO/CCKW activity this fall.  You can see this occurring with the most recent wave the last 2 weeks.  Anomalous divergence aloft returning in maybe a week?  We’ll see. 

[Rodius]

Still bouncing around the +3 mark.
No new info from BOM concerning ENSO

[gerontocrat]

Latest monthly update from the NOAA

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 December 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

 
Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during November, despite the continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly SST indices for all four Niño regions were near +1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened slightly [Fig. 3], but above-average temperatures persist at depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, the atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. For the month as a whole, atmospheric convection remained close to average near the Date Line and suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, the low-level and upper level winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, while the traditional SOI was near zero. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through the winter and spring [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and spring (~60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 January 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Rodius]

It has jumped to +9.6
I am no expert, I even had to check that the + indicates La Nino, but given the ongoing prediction of El Nino, I am somewhat surprised personally.

[oren]

The atmosphere is certainly not playing along with this El Nino, meaning there is no feedback loop (as far as my layman's understanding goes).

[wolfpack513]

One of the strongest MJO waves on record will be moving across the Pacific the next 7 days.  Comparable to the March 2015 wave.  Will be interesting the next few weeks to watch the response.  This may have more impact on the next ENSO cycle rather than this cycle this current winter. 

[Pmt111500]

Note that it's 2019, and a new thread could be made.

Please include a long record of ENSO in the opening post.

I'm also curious of the effect of the Anak Krakatau sulfates on ENSO predictions if any.