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ghoti

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #700 on: November 20, 2017, 06:44:41 PM »
That is not the current condition of the Oroville spillway. They completed this year's construction by Novemeber 1. Next year they will replace the very top section and resurface the middle section and add higher walls on the middle section.

The state of construction can be viewed in the video of the overflight of the spilway on Novemebr 15.



Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #701 on: November 23, 2017, 03:07:59 PM »
That is not the current condition of the Oroville spillway. They completed this year's construction by Novemeber 1.
...

Great video.  Thanks!
Love the “mighty Luscombe.”  8)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #702 on: December 16, 2017, 02:12:16 PM »
New model run, same story. California is locked in an epic dry spell.
No rain until 2018.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941901703527485440
Image below.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #703 on: December 16, 2017, 02:57:12 PM »
And the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) from NOAA shows the effects of this persistent weather pattern with little to no precipitation. This is the wet season for California and it is behaving as the worst category drought.

Shared Humanity

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #704 on: December 16, 2017, 03:04:19 PM »

Shared Humanity

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #705 on: December 16, 2017, 03:16:15 PM »
And the 30 day sea level pressure anomaly showing persistent high pressure over the western U.S. which is driving much needed moisture north of California. I believe that this high pressure anomaly is the new normal under the emerging climate regime. It does not bode well for the Southwestern U.S.

Shared Humanity

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #706 on: December 16, 2017, 03:25:00 PM »
90, 180 and 365 day sea level pressure anomalies. Am I ill informed to be concerned by these trends? It is amazing to me that these high pressure anomalies are occurring over the oceans in both the southern and northern hemispheres. Is this the result of some natural oscillation?
« Last Edit: December 16, 2017, 03:44:52 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #707 on: December 16, 2017, 04:21:15 PM »
And the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) from NOAA shows the effects of this persistent weather pattern with little to no precipitation. This is the wet season for California and it is behaving as the worst category drought.

Thanks, SH — I was not aware of that tool.

I found this backgrounder useful:
http://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/EDDI_2-pager.pdf

Image: Example of EDDI compared to the usual NOAA drought map, showing the development of drought in the central U.S. in 2012.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #708 on: December 16, 2017, 04:30:23 PM »
90, 180 and 365 day sea level pressure anomalies. Am I ill informed to be concerned by these trends? It is amazing to me that these high pressure anomalies are occurring over the oceans in both the southern and northern hemispheres. Is this the result of some natural oscillation?

It looks like the return of the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" off California.
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Alexander555

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #709 on: December 16, 2017, 04:33:52 PM »
It's not about California. And i'm not realy familiar with the weather in this regon. But the snow seems pretty far south. Or is it correlated with the dry rainy season in California ?

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #710 on: December 16, 2017, 04:44:26 PM »
I have a sister who lives in Flagstaff and this is their snowy season. There is some great skiing on the high slopes there.

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #711 on: December 17, 2017, 12:25:47 AM »
There was accumulating snow in Mexico.  Highly unusual.

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #712 on: December 17, 2017, 01:57:58 AM »
Have a bil who lives in Tucson. Snow routinely accumulates on peaks there.

John Batteen

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #713 on: December 17, 2017, 07:14:39 PM »
Sure but not in the low country.  This was pretty unusual.  Not unheard of but certainly uncommon.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/snow-flies-in-the-north-with-first-winter-storm/

Quote
In Saltillo, the capital of Coahuila, the thermometer dipped to seven degrees below zero, and 10 below in the sierra to the east. The temperatures, coupled with the snowfall, forced authorities to close three highways to traffic, all going into Saltillo from Zacatecas, Monclova and Torreón.

It was on the latter highway that conditions caused a bus to roll over, injuring 14 people.

Earlier this afternoon there were more than 2,000 trucks stranded on highway 57 in the municipality of Arteaga, near Saltillo. Traffic began slowing Thursday night due to poor conditions.

Arteaga Mayor Jesús Durán Flores predicted that traffic would remain backed up through the afternoon.

Local Civil Protection officials delivered food and fuel to the stranded vehicles yesterday.

In the municipalities of Monclova and Múzquiz, snowfall reached the 25-centimeter mark, causing the roofs of three schools to collapse. Airports throughout the state had to cancel flights, while the roads to several ejidos were blocked by snow.

Martin Gisser

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #714 on: December 21, 2017, 12:25:48 PM »
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4
Quote
Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall
Abstract
From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Interview with lead author here:
https://www.ecoshock.org/2017/12/science-of-the-nasty-future.html


(Fig. 4 loc. cit.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #715 on: December 21, 2017, 08:42:22 PM »
There remains a (Southern) California-sized hole in the rainfall forecast for the next 16 days. Still no meaningful rain on the way for SoCal as far out as we can see (Jan 6, 2018)
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/943894897374920706
Image below.

Los Angeles:
Normal L.A. rainfall Oct 1 - Jan 6 = 4.66"
2017-18 L.A. rainfall Oct 1 - Jan 6 = 0.12" (projected) -- just 2.5% of normal
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/943897598435479554
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #716 on: December 23, 2017, 05:27:44 PM »
“An AR [Atmosperic River] isn’t really a singular storm per se, it’s more like opening a narrow, long superhighway from the atmosphere to an indiscriminate point on the map on which extreme amounts of water travel.

Most of that is carried in the form of water vapor, but there’s so much water — on average 25 Mississippi Rivers’ worth in each AR — that when a storm system taps into one and makes landfall under the right conditions, the results can be devastating.”

“California is spending billions to protect the millions at risk of a megaflood, but thanks to climate change, it’s too little too late.”
http://features.weather.com/us-climate-change/california/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #717 on: December 24, 2017, 02:52:38 PM »
Graphs, for those who prefer them over tables of data. :) :o

California's Thomas Fire torches record books, as 'normal' climate burns away
Quote
The Thomas Fire is one in a long line of beyond "normal" events to hit the Golden State recently. Here's a list of some of California's recent whiplashing climate records:

- Record Dry. The worst drought in more than a millennia gripped the state from 2011 to 2016.
- Record Wet. That was immediately followed by the state's wettest rainy season ever recorded. During February alone, flooding caused $1.5 billion in damages and forced a tense evacuation of 188,000 residents downstream of the overflowing Oroville Dam.
- Record Hot. Then all that epic rain gave way to California's hottest recorded summer, by a long shot.
- Record Fire. This year brought the trifecta of wildfire misery to California setting records for the biggest, most-destructive and deadliest wildfires ever recorded in the state.
- Record Hot & Dry at same time. The region of the fire baked under it's hottest October and November ever. And the driest as well. The Ventura County Fire Department reported: "It has been over 250 days without any recorded rain in the area. Relative humidity is in the single digits." Eight months without any rain. Record heat. Winds gusting to hurricane strength at times.
- Record Forest Death. All that weather whiplash has been killing California trees in record numbers. Just last week the US Forest Service announced that "though California received record-breaking rains in the winter of 2016-2017, the effects of five consecutive years of severe drought in California, a dramatic rise in bark beetle infestation and rising temperatures have led to historic levels of tree die-off…a staggering 129 million dead trees in the state." All those dead trees are increasing the fuel potential for more extreme wildfires in the future. ...
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/12/23/analysis/californias-thomas-fire-torches-record-books-normal-climate-burns-away
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #718 on: January 16, 2018, 09:37:24 PM »
Last winter's near-record rainfall in California means the state's reservoirs are still mostly full.
This year is a different story.
Record warmth and near-record low snowfall means a new drought may be beginning.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/953356311428845574

Without some real snow (maybe this week?), overall water storage in the Sierra is seriously lagging despite brim-full reservoirs
https://twitter.com/mdettinger/status/953332825717026816
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #719 on: January 24, 2018, 04:54:44 PM »
Length of present (nearly) unbroken #SoCal dry spell is remarkable. Los Angeles has only seen a single day of significant rainfall (>0.25 in.) since last Apr (2017), and only 2 days with precipitation above 0.5 inches since last Feb--nearly a year ago.#CAwx #LArain @NWSLosAngeles
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/955851892260618243
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gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #720 on: January 24, 2018, 06:00:45 PM »
Last winter's near-record rainfall in California means the state's reservoirs are still mostly full.
This year is a different story.
Record warmth and near-record low snowfall means a new drought may be beginning.

Without some real snow (maybe this week?), overall water storage in the Sierra is seriously lagging despite brim-full reservoirs

It must be more than 50 years ago I read a sc-fi novel about California and the Rockies, which did not have global warming, but did have a greatly increased population and industry making water demand and supply a matter of survival.

The Rockies and the water system had been taken over by the Water Police to monitor the snow-pack and prevent unauthorised access, with a licence to kill water-thieves. The shape of things to come?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #721 on: January 27, 2018, 08:00:12 PM »
“Record high temperatures possible Sunday and especially Monday throughout #SoCal; well abv avg for foreseeable future. Mid-winter snowmelt likely in #SierraNevada as spring-like temperatures arrive, possibly bringing snowpack to record low level for date. #CAwx #CAwater #CAfire”
   https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/957307875084267520
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Shared Humanity

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #722 on: January 27, 2018, 11:05:01 PM »
Setting the stage for another horrific fire season?

aperson

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #723 on: January 29, 2018, 12:41:59 AM »
Setting the stage for another horrific fire season?

Looks like it. There's currently a very large anticyclonic wavebreak occurring over the Kamchatka peninsula region that pumps the ridiculously resilient ridge for the foreseeable future. It looks like this pattern will be stagnant until enough energy is built up to pump through the ridge like the last system that caused the Montecito debris flow. The placement of the high is also good to create Santa Ana wind events throughout the middle of winter.

Precip outlook across models is not good for the foreseeable future. Given California's already low snowpack, this could be another year of extreme drought and fire conditions.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 12:58:12 AM by aperson »
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Alexander555

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #724 on: January 31, 2018, 10:37:35 AM »
Looks like the snow will be gone fast if predictions are good. The first pic is for today. The other one for a couple days later.

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #725 on: February 03, 2018, 04:07:47 PM »
“This von Kármán vorticity is literally the coolest thing I've ever seen. ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherdak/status/959437501743190018
GIF at the link.

Also: image of the map of the current wind at 250 hPa.
Live map:  https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-126.86,31.87,399

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gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #726 on: February 08, 2018, 05:20:48 PM »
California is getting dryer - last two weeks monitor maps below. Am I right in believing that the US uses soil moisture, not precipitation as the measure?
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Bruce Steele

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #727 on: February 08, 2018, 06:06:02 PM »
Gerontocrat, Yes soil moisture but also several other indexes. Satellite  plant stress , surface water flows,etc.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUSDM/DroughtClassification.aspx
It's very dry and warm , we had one 2" rain and although that brought up the grass it is already yellowing. The main water reservoir, Lake Cachuma,  rose to 50% last year with last years rains but has already dropped below 40%.
 I haven't heard " ridiculous resilient ridge " as often as a couple years ago but it's there . The last time this happened we also ended up with the " blob " . I hope the " blob " doesn't return , it was very destructive to the West Coast marine nearshore ecosystems. The starfish dieoff, purple urchins barrens,kelp losses , and abalone starving in Northern Calif.
 

gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #728 on: February 11, 2018, 11:19:21 AM »
From cci-reanalyzer for next Friday

Guess where the high pressure is.
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aperson

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #729 on: February 11, 2018, 08:57:35 PM »
There's a little rain there at least, mostly due to a strange cutoff low forming from that high pressure ridge tilting heavily.
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gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #730 on: February 16, 2018, 12:50:37 PM »
Two images

Califormia Drought Monitor 13 Feb 2018. Note how area of drought about the same - but also note how D2 drought has tripled in area (in SoCal).

cci-reanalyzer N. America Precipitation and pressure 23rd Feb. The high blog off the West Coast persists. cci-renalyzer then says things start changing - (note that's when they also say Arctic temps start dropping quite rapidly).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #731 on: February 17, 2018, 04:10:26 PM »
“It's late in California's rainy season, and things are looking increasingly dire.

Statewide snowpack: 20% of normal
L.A. rainfall: 21% of normal
S.F. rainfall: 54% of normal
Warmest year on record, so far, statewide
Drought worsening statewide
No meaningful rain in the forecast ”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/964568884585082880
Image below; more images at the link.
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gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #732 on: February 17, 2018, 04:43:34 PM »
Hullo Sigmetnow,

I thought I would add to your post the image below. I wonder how the reservoirs are holding out whether Jerry Brown is being briefed?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #733 on: February 18, 2018, 09:40:02 PM »
Here you go.  Reservoir levels are quite good at this point — which may lead to complacency despite the mostly dry rainy season... until the snowpack cannot replenish the lakes this summer.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #734 on: February 18, 2018, 11:34:22 PM »
That is good news. I worry about the approaching fire season. There has still got to be a lot of ground fuel where fires did not burn last year.

gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #735 on: February 19, 2018, 12:29:54 AM »
Here you go.  Reservoir levels are quite good at this point — which may lead to complacency despite the mostly dry rainy season... until the snowpack cannot replenish ......
So maybe in 6 months it will be water rationing again unless the gods of water decide that california's dry season will be wet ?
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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #736 on: February 19, 2018, 08:51:15 PM »
In California, the long term solution is inevitable. California cities use a small fraction of the water consumed. The central valley agricultural miracle is on its last legs.

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #737 on: February 21, 2018, 07:34:30 PM »
“As of Feb 19... Los Angeles has now gone a full 365-day calendar year with only a single day of significant rainfall (>0.33 inches). While there's a chance of a few showers this week, there's still no significant precipitation in the forecast across #SoCal. #CAwx #LArain ”
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/965657762997792768
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gerontocrat

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #738 on: February 24, 2018, 11:56:30 AM »
California Drought Monitor map for Feb 20th below. Note how extent has spread to Northern California - but intensity D2-D4 area not increased.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #739 on: March 02, 2018, 09:43:00 PM »
“California's Tahoe snowpack has never clawed back to normal by season end after being this low on March 1. The worst year that did, '85, had more than twice as much March 1 snow.  h/t @NRCS_Nevada ”
https://twitter.com/ClimateSignals/status/969672912750886912
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #740 on: March 08, 2018, 06:47:30 PM »
“We just wrapped up the 3rd driest February in modern California history... #CAwx @CBSSF “
https://twitter.com/PaulDeannoKPIX/status/971570029627084801
Image below.

“Also worth noting that in some key hydrological regions in California (in Southern Sierra Nevada, and upstream of Shasta Dam), DJF 2017-2018 was indeed the singularly driest winter on record. #CAwx ”
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/971441816422592512
Image below.

“2017-2018 was only the third warmest winter (DJF) on record in California (rank dropped a bit due to late Feb cold snap). Still, California's top 3 warmest winters have all occurred in the past 4 years. #CAwx #CAwater ”
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/971434906768179200
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #741 on: March 08, 2018, 06:48:55 PM »
“Interestingly, for the season-to-date (Oct-Feb), California just experienced one of its widest year-to-year precipitation swings on record: extreme whiplash between record-wet start to 2016-2017 and extremely dry start to 2017-2018. #CAwx #CAwater ”
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/971435543257952256
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #742 on: March 19, 2018, 12:32:44 PM »
Quote
Major #AtmosphericRiver event forecast for Wed. Mar 21, impacting #SoCal w/ potential concerns for #ThomasFire area. At landfall, PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) ~30mm. Broad tap into tropical wv reservoir. #CAwx #CAstorm #PineappleExpress
https://twitter.com/atmosriver/status/975574964811194369
Image below.

Quote
A cutoff low located over the eastern N Pacific is assoc. w/ persistent southwesterly flow toward the West Coast and the transport of anomalously high PW values toward California. PW anomalies >5σ are forecast along to coast of California during 21-22 March. #AtmosphericRiver
https://twitter.com/AliciaMBentley/status/975525520006963200
Image below; GIF at the link.

Quote
"5σ PW anomalies" translates to "huge amount of water vapor in the column of air above your head, of a magnitude that is historically rare." This is why there is so much concern regarding #ThomasFire burn scar in #SantaBarbara and #Ventura. #AtmosphericRiver
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/975527708644884480
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #743 on: March 20, 2018, 08:01:41 PM »
Yikes.

NWS Los Angeles forecast:
“Updated rainfall storm totals.  Steady rain with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall expected especially Wed afternoon through Thu.”
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/976140730275069952
Image below.  7.04 inches = 179 mm


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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #744 on: March 20, 2018, 08:37:01 PM »
“Mandatory evacuations are now ordered for parts of Santa Barbara County, in advance of the strongest coastal storm of the season -- mudslides + debris flows *expected* near recent burn scars.”
Current Map:   https://sbc-gis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0d9fc497afef4aec86ccb4d6a6068161

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/976178979806859269
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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #745 on: March 21, 2018, 02:06:27 AM »
NWS:  “This is the beginning of a long duration very heavy rainfall event, with rainfall totals exceeding those that caused the mud/debris flow event Jan 9th of this year. Check out the size of the Thomas Fire, and all the other red and orange outlined burn scars.“
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/976259442131046400

NWS Los Angeles:  “Rain began about 2 hours ago, and here are totals since then. It's mostly light so far, but we expect the intensity to pick up this evening and overnight. You can see the recent burn areas outlined in red, which are primary areas of concern. #CAwx #SoCal #CAstorm“
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/976250845284139008
Image below.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #746 on: April 01, 2018, 07:11:29 PM »
NWS WPC: 
“Heavy precipitation is expected to return to California Friday into Saturday, much of which could occur in 12 hours.  Area reservoir levels are near to above historic averages, so the forecast is worth monitoring.”
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/980483060222349318
Image below.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #747 on: April 01, 2018, 07:25:54 PM »
NWS WPC: 
“Heavy precipitation is expected to return to California Friday into Saturday, much of which could occur in 12 hours.  Area reservoir levels are near to above historic averages, so the forecast is worth monitoring.”
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/980483060222349318
Image below.

Certainly worth monitoring but, given the situation, not bad news.

Daniel B.

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #748 on: April 02, 2018, 04:36:29 PM »
NWS WPC: 
“Heavy precipitation is expected to return to California Friday into Saturday, much of which could occur in 12 hours.  Area reservoir levels are near to above historic averages, so the forecast is worth monitoring.”
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/980483060222349318
Image below.

Certainly worth monitoring but, given the situation, not bad news.

Agreed.  California has always been boom or bust, when it comes to the rains.  With its bulging population, lack of rainfall is the bigger issue.

Sigmetnow

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Re: California weather extremes and climate
« Reply #749 on: April 02, 2018, 08:44:20 PM »
Weird to be worrying about floods, and drought, at the same time.

“There are two important dates for California #water: Oct 1 (the beginning of the "water year" & April 1 (the benchmark metric for the end of the snow/rain season). By all April 1 data, the 2018 water year is a very dry one. Here are the data from DWR.“
https://twitter.com/PeterGleick/status/980636621937655809
Image below; more at the link.
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