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jai mitchell

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #800 on: May 09, 2014, 03:34:16 AM »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #801 on: May 09, 2014, 04:31:57 AM »
jai,

Thanks for the link to the beautiful real time SSTA images for the entire ocean; which among a lot of other things, these anomalies make it clear that the original EKW has effectively disrupted the Humboldt Current, and that the new EKW near the Equatorial Date Line is steadily moving eastward to reinforce this growing El Nino event.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #802 on: May 09, 2014, 06:22:57 AM »
for historical perspective RemSS keeps continuing the (a)MSU-measurements and subsequent calculations of Lower Troposphere anomalies over latitude bands that clearly shows the effect of Ferrel cell in the mixing of the El Nino dispensed ocean heat:
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

werther

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #803 on: May 09, 2014, 08:25:07 AM »
Ah, thanks Pmt, for yet another great tool.
I copied this one on TLT anomaly:



Very instructive; see how the ano’s reflect the ridges and troughs in the N Hemisphere. How it indicates the massive rapid loss of snow cover in mid-Siberia (Lena Basin).
This does not exactly fit the Nino thread, but, at least, it shows what the positive PDO/Pacific SST is doing to the lower troposphere too.

This will be great to illustrate the global effects when El Nino will fulfill the expectations.

Laurent

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #804 on: May 09, 2014, 09:26:57 AM »
World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229682.400-world-is-unprepared-for-major-el-nino-later-this-year.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.U2yCD4ZJzlc

werther

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #805 on: May 09, 2014, 10:14:03 AM »
That's an article worth to be taken seriously, Laurent.

Adding to my earlier post, the average index for the four main ENSO regions has risen another +0.04 dC to +0.79 in a day.
Look well at OSDPD SST full global 8/5. There's indication of an 'Atlantic Nino' growing as well. The Indian plays its own part, India surrounded by positive anomalies. The Maritime Continent joins the party. Collectively, there's so much more heat in the game compared to '97.

It is amazing, in '97 it was just impossible to follow this front seat...

Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #806 on: May 09, 2014, 11:52:12 AM »
It is amazing, in '97 it was just impossible to follow this front seat...

yes, amazing.

 
There's indication of an 'Atlantic Nino' growing as well. The Indian plays its own part, India surrounded by positive anomalies.

At least this should give Pakistanis and Southwest Asians a break from huge monsoons and floods. Here's hoping it won't get too dry.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #807 on: May 09, 2014, 05:13:17 PM »
We certainly are accumulating a lot of first class tools for monitoring the development & impact of the coming El Nino event.  It is clear to me that the atmospheric telecommunication through the Ferrel Cell (that Pmt & werther reference) are reinforcing the positive trend in the IPO by transporting energy directly to the North and South Pacific; a trend that should increase (and provide a positive feedback) as the El Nino gains strength.

Next, the attached image indicates that the MJO is about to enter the Indian Ocean, and we will see whether it maintains its strength, or whether its strength decreases as forecast by NOAA.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #808 on: May 09, 2014, 06:08:04 PM »
El Niño Watch continues for NOAA's advisory system. They increased the likelihood of an El Niño arriving this summer from 50% to 65%.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Figure 6 of their monthly advisory suggests that a moderate El Niño (between 1.0 and 1.5 C) is the predicted average from IRI/CPC's average of all participating models.

CFSv2 still shows a strong El Niño (>1.5 C) as the average:

ritter

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #809 on: May 09, 2014, 06:26:52 PM »
World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229682.400-world-is-unprepared-for-major-el-nino-later-this-year.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.U2yCD4ZJzlc

I found the following link in that story interesting as to the impacts of the 97-98 event on the California Bay Area (near and dear to me).
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/

Clare

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #810 on: May 09, 2014, 07:28:23 PM »
NZ Farmers are being warned to prepare for the worst as risk of El Nino grows:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11245316

Then the next day the same paper gave (breathing) space to a sceptic re. this!
http://hot-topic.co.nz/herald-gives-de-freitas-platform-to-smear-climate-science/

and todays Hot Topic post included a Yale video link re. el nino that even I can understand!
http://hot-topic.co.nz/something-for-the-weekend-boy-child-birth-on-the-way-will-get-feet-wet/

PS.Kevin Trenberth featured is a kiwi from Christchurch, see here about the flooding problems they have been having this year, exacerbated by subsidence + earthquake damage to infrastructure:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11250615

werther

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #811 on: May 09, 2014, 09:48:35 PM »
Hi Clare,
I see you link to a NZ article dating back to 28/4. I wonder what Prof. Renwick's assessment is now...
Furthermore, on De Freitas... a lot of chicken are running. Like in Europe Prof. Bengtsson... Like JimD writes about on another thread, there's not much difference between BAU and GreenBAU. In analogy to Paul Simon, there are 51 ways to deny what's going on...and go for short term profit. After all, "après nous la deluge..."
On Christchurch... the terrible eathquake not that long ago, I sure wish the people out there some good luck on their governance. I didn't realise that large parts of that city stand below 2 m above mean sea level. OTOH, that would be quite safe here in the Netherlands...
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 10:13:45 PM by werther »

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #812 on: May 09, 2014, 09:50:50 PM »
The recent significant spike in negative daily SOI values can be attributed to low pressure that was located to the south of Tahiti earlier in the week. As of today 5/9/14 low pressure in that region was moving out with high pressure forecast to build in behind it by Saturday 5/10/14. Daily SOI values will likely be on the rise then.

werther

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #813 on: May 09, 2014, 10:16:41 PM »
bigB,
That observation strengthens my thought that the SOI is a volatile index. I'd take it in for sure, but wouldn't give it the heighest weight in assessing the state of ENSO.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2014, 10:40:23 PM by werther »

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #814 on: May 09, 2014, 11:13:49 PM »
Busy day on this thread! The Yale Climate Forum has posted a video to its Youtube page discussing El Niño, including snippets of an interview they had with Kevin Trenberth: "the official announcements from the Weather Service and the CPC have been very conservative on this front."



The uncertainty is most serious when discussing the intensity. Once you've determined the binary choice between the "El Niño or Bust", it's the progression from there that is less clear. That's certainly reason to find it unsettling, given we seem to be well on the way to an official El Niño.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #815 on: May 10, 2014, 03:05:29 AM »
The SOI has fluctuated up today and is now at +1.1 per the attached plot
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #816 on: May 10, 2014, 03:13:45 PM »
Mod of the TLT channel image, whether it makes sense is somebody else's problem, since I cannot prove this scientifically (too hard). Here it looks like a heatwave somewhere in latitude band 25-35 may be one requirement for el Nino, there are likely others too. The ten month warning time would allow farmers to do changes in their practises before Nino hits their area, and also give proper preparation time for others directly affected. It looks like only larger el Ninos warm the whole atmosphere all the way from 90N to ~50S, the smaller ones do not reach high latitudes in their effect but give rather mixed signals under Ferrel and Polar cells (looks to me). The cold surges from poles are still more guesswork here. But as said I lack the capabilities to check this properly. I'd guess '25-35N heatwaves' should be a warming of the 25-35N band of Northern Pacific, if it's related to el Nino but really not sure. also notable that all heatwaves on this latitude band are not el Nino related so the longitude these occur could be an issue.
Back to Ice Watching for me, hopefully there's a reliable El Nino-prediction system up shortly, to get people preparing in advance.  Still remember the images from 1998, Columbian City streets having over a meter water running beside and through people's homes.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2014, 03:26:32 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #817 on: May 10, 2014, 05:10:01 PM »
The first attached image shows that the MJO has now reached the Indian Ocean with a reason level of strength.

The second image of NOAA's Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly indicates that by about May 3rd the anomaly was at about 1.2.

The third attached image shows NOAA's equatorial surface wind (850-hPa) velocity potential anomalies thru May 7 2014; which shows that the new EKW near the Equatorial Date Line may be receiving reinforcement in its eastward progress.

Also, looking at the Long Paddock station readings, one should expect the SOI 30-day moving average value to fluctuate up and down for about the next week in a neutral condition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #818 on: May 10, 2014, 07:39:14 PM »
How can I refrain from posting an article with the title, "Monster Kelvin Wave Is Barfing Heat Into The Atmosphere"?   ;D

Besides, it's a pretty good article.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/09/1298131/-Monster-Kelvin-Wave-Is-Barfing-Heat-Into-The-Atmosphere?detail=email
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #819 on: May 11, 2014, 02:26:54 AM »
As expected the 30-day moving SOI average for May 11 2014 has bounced up, and is now +2.9 (again we can expect this volatile index to fluctuate within the neutral band for about the next week)
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #820 on: May 11, 2014, 04:22:55 PM »
The attached image from NOAA shows the MJO moving rapidly across the Indian Ocean, and is forecast to strengthen slightly tomorrow.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #821 on: May 11, 2014, 04:59:56 PM »
The following selected quotes and the first three attached images come from the linked Comet website which includes much more discussion of tropical storms/cyclones than presented here (so you may want to navigate around the Comet websites for a better understanding of this topic):

The first attached image (from Comet) shows the location of tropical storms; which indicates that the area in Tropical Northwest Pacific has the largest number of typhoons/cyclones/hurricanes in the world (see the following quote & link):

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.0.0.htm

"What is tropical cyclogenesis? Surprisingly, there is no single answer to this question. Operational forecast centers responsible for issuing tropical cyclone watches and warning define genesis as observed sustained mean surface winds (averaging time is dependent on region) in excess of tropical storm force (17 m s-1; 60 km h-1; 33 knots). While this is a readily applied and unambiguous criterion for tropical storm formation, it is not particularly helpful in understanding the processes leading to genesis. However, implicit in this operational genesis criterion is the expectation that the tropical storm will continue to develop from this point forward; that is, that the storm will become self-sustaining. This is the definition of genesis that we will use here: tropical cyclogenesis has occurred when the tropical storm has become self-sustaining and can continue to intensify without help from its environment (external forcing)."

The second attached image shows the seasonal nature of many of the factors related to the cyclogenesis of tropical storms in the Tropical Northwest Pacific region, and indicates that during July the wind shear should increase in this region.

The third attached image (discussed in the following quote and link) presents a relatively new theory about the cyclogenesis of storms in this Tropical Northwest Pacific region, illustrating the relationship of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ zone to generate tropical storms.

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.2.0.htm

"In most basins, the monsoon trough is the most common region for genesis, so we begin with a review of the controls on tropical cyclogenesis in the monsoon trough environment. A new way of looking at the tropical western North Pacific is to partition its large–scale tropical environment into a monsoon trough zone and an ITCZ zone, separated by a confluence zone {see the third attached image}. The monsoon trough zone is characterized by the near–equatorial seasonal westerly winds and enhanced rainfall. Lower tropospheric vorticity in the monsoon trough zone is derived from the cyclonic circulation that results from the incursion of the monsoon westerlies. In contrast, the ITCZ zone is dominated by trade easterlies throughout; these low–level easterlies converge in the ITCZ convective trough. The transition zone between the near-equatorial monsoon westerlies and ITCZ trade easterlies is known as the confluence zone. This combination of features—monsoon trough, confluence zone, and ITCZ—will be referred to here as the monsoon region."

The fourth attached image shows an earth surface wind map for May 11 2014, showing how the monsoon trough / confluence zone / ITCZ north of New Guinea might be gradually coming together.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #822 on: May 11, 2014, 11:12:28 PM »
As I suspect that some people will not navigate through the Comet website, I post the following quotes and images regarding cyclogenesis from the following Comet link:

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.1.0.htm

"Six features of the large-scale tropics were identified by Gray (1968) as necessary, but not sufficient conditions for tropical cyclogenesis:

(i)   sufficient ocean thermal energy [SST > 26°C to a depth of 60 m],
(ii)   enhanced mid-troposphere (700 hPa) relative humidity,
(iii)   conditional instability,
(iv)   enhanced lower troposphere relative vorticity,
(v)   weak vertical shear of the horizontal winds at the genesis site, and
(vi)   displacement by at least 5° latitude away from the equator.

The first three thermodynamic parameters measure the ability to support deep convection—criteria that have been identified as seasonal indicators of genesis potential. The latter, dynamical parameters, such as vertical wind shear {see the first attached image in this post}, measure the daily likelihood of genesis.  In recent years, a number of tropical cyclones have remained within 5° latitude of the equator, suggesting a need to relax this constraint. Many, but not all, of those near-equatorial systems had very small spatial scale. Locations where conditions (i) and (v) are satisfied are highlighted in {the second attached figure in the immediate prior post, ie Reply 821}.
“Necessary but not sufficient” means that all of these conditions must be present simultaneously before tropical cyclogenesis can occur, but even if all of these conditions are met, tropical cyclogenesis may not occur. Thus, the necessary, but not sufficient, criteria for tropical cyclogenesis may be summarized as the ability to support deep convection in the presence of a low-level absolute vorticity maximum. The low-level vorticity maximum reduces the local Rossby radius of deformation focusing the convective heating locally.
The ability of the initial convection to survive for many days depends on its vorticity, stability, and depth—defined by the Rossby radius of deformation, LR. The Rossby radius, LR, is the critical scale at which rotation becomes as important as buoyancy. When the disturbance size is wider than LR, it persists; systems that are smaller than LR will disperse {see the second attached image in this post}. LR is inversely proportional to latitude so it is very large in the tropics. However, the high vorticity in tropical cyclones reduces the Rossby radius and enables tropical cyclones to last for many days and even weeks.
The ability of the initial convection to survive for many days depends on its vorticity, stability, and depth—defined by the Rossby radius of deformation, LR. The Rossby radius, LR, is the critical scale at which rotation becomes as important as buoyancy. When the disturbance size is wider than LR, it persists; systems that are smaller than LR will disperse (Fig. 8.18). LR is inversely proportional to latitude so it is very large in the tropics. However, the high vorticity in tropical cyclones reduces the Rossby radius and enables tropical cyclones to last for many days and even weeks."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #823 on: May 12, 2014, 02:38:05 AM »
Today the BoM 30-day moving average fluctuated back down from +2.9 yesterday to +2.3 today(as can be seen at the following link and the attached image), so it is still neutral:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
« Last Edit: May 12, 2014, 05:50:49 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #824 on: May 12, 2014, 03:29:56 PM »
The first weekly reading above +0.5 C by the CPC was observed on May 7th, showing we have now begun El Niño conditions.



Niño 1+2 is 1.2C above average, Niño 3 at 0.6C, Niño 4 at 0.8C. These are all the highest readings for these regions since at least 2012. Niño 4 highest since 2010.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2014, 03:37:44 PM by deep octopus »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #825 on: May 12, 2014, 04:36:59 PM »
To follow-up on deep octopus's announcement that El Nino conditions have begun per the Nino3.4 index, I note that per NOAA's definition the three month average for this index needs to remain above +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping three month periods for this to count as an official El Nino event, but nevertheless the clock is now ticking.  Furthermore, the attached images from NOAA of the subsurface Equatorial Pacific Temperature Anomalies indicates that the second EKW is steadily moving eastward, which will almost guarantee that the Nino3.4 index will increase for at least the next two months; which may well give the atmosphere sufficient time to reorganize itself into a El Nino condition (while the atmosphere is currently in a neutral condition):

« Last Edit: May 12, 2014, 05:38:33 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #826 on: May 12, 2014, 04:43:48 PM »
As a further indication that an El Nino condition is now strengthening the attached NOAA graph of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Temperature Anomalies through about May 8 2014, indicate that this value will remain above 1.2 and appears to be increasing as the second EKW continues to move eastward:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #827 on: May 12, 2014, 04:58:21 PM »
The first attached image from NOAA's weekly ENSO status report issued May 12 2014, of the Equatorial Pacific Heat Content Evolution, shows that the indicated weak upwell phase between the first and second EKW is not gaining any strength; which indicates that the El Nino should continue to strengthen.

The second attached image of the NOAA MJO forecast issues May 12 2014, shows that the MJO is now over half way across the Indian Ocean, but appears to be weakening.  Nevertheless, the location of the MJO raises that possibility that it might arrive in the Western Equatorial Pacific by the last week in May, or the first week in June, when the SOI forecast is indicated to favor El Nino development.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #828 on: May 12, 2014, 09:00:13 PM »
All ENSO, all the time!  :D

NOAA starts an ENSO blog.
Quote
A team of climate scientists—actual nerds!—discuss the current El Niño Watch and offer perspectives and analysis on the progression of El Niño.
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #829 on: May 12, 2014, 10:23:11 PM »
I can't remember whether the following linked reference has been cited before, but it seem particularly relevant to the possibility that the MJO and/or WWBs could influence the El Nino condition by the end of Spring:

Andrew M. Chiodi, D. E. Harrison, Gabriel A. Vecchi. (2014) Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability and El Niño Waveguide Warming: Observed Effects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Westerly Wind Events. Journal of Climate 27:10, 3619-3642

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00547.1

"Westerly wind events (WWEs) have previously been shown to initiate equatorial Pacific waveguide warming. The relationship between WWEs and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, as well as the role of MJO events in initiating waveguide warming, is reconsidered here over the 1986–2010 period. WWEs are identified in observations of near-surface zonal winds using an objective scheme. MJO events are defined using a widely used index, and 64 are identified that occur when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in its neutral state. Of these MJO events, 43 have one or more embedded WWEs and 21 do not. The evolution of sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Pacific waveguide following the westerly surface wind phase of the MJO over the western equatorial Pacific is examined. Waveguide warming is found for the MJO with WWE events in similar magnitudes as following the WWEs not embedded in an MJO. There is very little statistically significant waveguide warming following MJO events that do not contain an embedded WWE. The observed SST anomaly changes are well reproduced in an ocean general circulation model forced with the respective composite wind stress anomalies. Further, it is found that the occurrence of an MJO event does not significantly affect the likelihood that a WWE will occur. These results extend and confirm the earlier results of Vecchi with a near doubling of the period of study. It is suggested that understanding the sources and predictability of tropical Pacific westerly wind events remains essential to improving predictions of the onset of El Niño events."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #830 on: May 13, 2014, 02:01:11 AM »
Peter Sinclair of Climate Crocks (and also a contributor to the Yale Climate Forum) has released both videos of his interview with Kevin Trenberth on the 2014 El Niño. In the second video, he goes into the effect of PDO on ENSO tendencies in the first half, but later, around the 7 minute mark, he directs towards the pile up of warm water around the Philippines (with sea level rising up to 8 inches just prior to the WWB activity earlier this year.) His prediction for the next decade given a shift to warm PDO is quite dramatic: a 0.2-0.3 C rise in global surface temperatures. As he describes, the 2014-2023 decade (roughly speaking), could be a sharp "step" up.



In light of today's heavy release of two individual studies on the West Antarctic ice collapse, I think the next decade (this El Niño event included) could be pivotal in greatly affecting the Amundsen Sea glaciers.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #831 on: May 13, 2014, 02:24:33 AM »
Great link to the Kevin Trenberth video (part 2).

The attached image shows that the SOI (30-day moving average) has fluctuated up from +2.3 to +2.4 today according to the BoM.  I imagine that tomorrow that value will fluctuate down, as we continue in an atmospherically neutral condition.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2014, 03:44:00 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #832 on: May 13, 2014, 04:12:56 PM »
The first attached image shows that according to the BoM the weekly average Nino3.4 index for the week ending May 11 2014 increased to a value of +0.54, indicating a slowly strengthening El Nino event.

The second attached image shows that MJO has stalled in the mid-Indian Ocean (which might possibly (or not) give the SOI more time to become more negative before the MJO arrives in the Western Equatorial Pacific).
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #833 on: May 13, 2014, 04:15:37 PM »
The BoM weekly average Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices for the week ending May 11 2014 all support a strengthening El Nino condition and are shown in the first, second, third and fourth, images, respectively.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #834 on: May 13, 2014, 11:34:27 PM »
The linked research shows how El Nino events can impact the length of a day by up to a little over 0.1 milliseconds:

O. de Viron and J. O. Dickey, (2014), "The two types of El-Nino and their impacts on the Length-of-day.", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059948

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059948/abstract;jsessionid=6FE1950A6EA83369C410B89D9F0B5B22.f03t03

Abstract: "At the interannual to decadal timescale, the changes in the Earth rotation rate are linked with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena through changes in the Atmospheric Angular Momentum. As climatic studies demonstrate that there were two types of El-Niño events, namely Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) events, we investigate how each of them affect the Atmospheric Angular Momentum. We show in particular that EP events are associated with stronger variations of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum and length-of-day. We explain this difference by the stronger pressure gradient over the major mountain ranges, due to a stronger and more efficiently localized pressure dipole over the Pacific Ocean in the case of EP events."

Also, see the following quote from the linked website:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/05/how-el-nino-temporarily-slowa-the-earths-rotation/

Quote: "Here’s how the researchers think this works: In an Eastern Pacific El Niño, low atmospheric pressures tend to set up on the western sides of the Andes, Rockies, and Himalayas, with higher pressures on the other side of the mountains. That actually means the atmosphere is pushing westward, against those mountains. And the force of that push provides a torque opposing the Earth’s rotation. Stronger winds over the northern part of the Pacific, meanwhile, apply a frictional force in the opposite direction that negates the mountain torque over time.

In a Central Pacific El Niño, the high and low pressure regions don’t line up as well with the mountain ranges, and so the torque is smaller. In La Niña conditions, these processes play out in reverse, acting to make the day a little shorter rather than longer.

As wild as it sounds, we are able to calculate the minute changes in Earth’s rotational velocity that result from these forces. In fact, we’ve been able to measure them, by using precise atomic clocks and bouncing lasers off reflectors left on the Moon, for example."
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #835 on: May 13, 2014, 11:45:47 PM »
Peter Sinclair of Climate Crocks (and also a contributor to the Yale Climate Forum) has released both videos of his interview with Kevin Trenberth on the 2014 El Niño. In the second video, he goes into the effect of PDO on ENSO tendencies in the first half, but later, around the 7 minute mark, he directs towards the pile up of warm water around the Philippines (with sea level rising up to 8 inches just prior to the WWB activity earlier this year.) His prediction for the next decade given a shift to warm PDO is quite dramatic: a 0.2-0.3 C rise in global surface temperatures. As he describes, the 2014-2023 decade (roughly speaking), could be a sharp "step" up.


In Reply 266, I provide logic indicating the risk that by 2029, the mean global temperature could be 0.95 degrees C higher than today, if the positive PDO phase lasts that long.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #836 on: May 14, 2014, 03:05:20 AM »
The BoM 30-day moving average SOI has fluctuated down to +1.1 today but the plot has not been updated yet, so I will post it when it is available (so here it is).
« Last Edit: May 14, 2014, 04:07:32 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #837 on: May 14, 2014, 08:52:09 AM »
This is a Pacific detail I took from CDAS-SFLUX SST 13 th of May, with the four ENSO regions marked as boxes (and the Equator in red):



The warming is still getting stronger, as to be expected most in 1+2:
1+2    1.354
3   0.644
3+4   0.473
4   0.777

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #838 on: May 14, 2014, 09:16:37 AM »
Can this event still fizzle?
Taking the early May situation in 2012 as example, there's not much reason to suppose it does. The surfacing of warmer waters in 1+2 is much stronger, the warm pool in the West Pacific was almost non-existent in '12.
Scrolling back through the Nino-years, '09 doesn't match, the only event comparable is 1997. And that one still had less anomaly in the extreme Western Pacific...

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #839 on: May 14, 2014, 11:12:09 AM »
In the slipstream of the developing ENSO event there seem to coincide various anomalous side-effects.
What to make from relatively cool temps over India and China, combined with wetter and, in the case of South China, much wetter weather?
It looks like what could be expected for China later in an El Nino season. It may be that interfering teleconnections are at work: PDO and Asian-Pacific Oscillation.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2014, 05:01:57 PM by werther »

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #840 on: May 14, 2014, 04:10:33 PM »
Attached is today's (May 14 2014) MJO forecast (ensemble by NOAA) showing that the MJO has weakened and remains around the middle of the Indian Ocean.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #841 on: May 14, 2014, 04:56:52 PM »
Attached is NASA's Jason-2 measurement of residual sea level (relative/regional sea level rise) on May 6 2014.  This image clearly shows the second EKW moving eastward from the equatorial date line, and also clearly shows that the first EKW is sending CTWs (coastally trapped Kelvin waves) both northward and southward from Ecuador; therefore, California may start to see the effect of the first CTW before the end of June and the second EKW should produce another weaker CTW moving northward that may arrive in California by the end of summer (depending on how the current El Nino develops more CTWs may, or may not, arrive off the coast of California in the late Fall and Winter).
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #842 on: May 14, 2014, 06:12:05 PM »
The attached simplified cartoon of the relationships/cycles of Pacific Ocean Kelvin waves (Equatorial Kelvin waves, EKWs, Rossby waves and Coastal Trapped (Kelvin) Waves, CTWs), and the associated quote from the following link related to the attached image, explains: (a) How the westward traveling shallow Rossby waves (created by the EKWs interaction with South America) moves at about 1/3rd the speed of the EKW but which convey relatively warm water back into the Nino3.4 zone thus serving to further raise the Nino3.4 index, and further suppress the trade winds, later this summer; and (b) Once the westward traveling Rossby waves interact with the Maritime Continent, it will likely send back an upwelling Kelvin wave in the Spring of 2015 that will likely serve to dissipate the current El Nino event, in that timeframe:

http://www.tahan.com/charlie/research/physics/earth_science/nino/3356/main/course/moreintro.html


Quote: "The ENSO cycle can also be explained through the movement of waves in the Pacific as mentioned above. The cycle starts with warm water traveling from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves. After roughly three to four months [Edward Laws, 1992] of traveling across the Pacific along the equator, the Kelvin waves reach the western coast of South America where they mix with the cool Peru Current system; therefore raising sea levels and sea level temperatures in the region. Upon reaching the coast, the water forks to the north and south and causes El Niño conditions to the south.Because of the changes in sea-level and sea-temperature due to the Kelvin waves, an infinite amount of Rossby waves are formed and move back over the Pacific. The Rossby waves, as mentioned before, are much slower than the Kelvin waves and can take anywhere from nine months to four years [Edward Laws, 1992] to cross the Pacific.  Waves move slower when the distance from the equator is increased. (This wave delay is key to the ENSO cycle.) When the Rossby waves arrive at the western Pacific they bounce off the coast and become Kelvin waves and again travel back across the Pacific towards South America. This time, however, the waves decrease the sea-level and sea surface temperature returning the area to normal or La Nina conditions."
« Last Edit: May 14, 2014, 07:34:50 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #843 on: May 14, 2014, 07:12:38 PM »
This was a very helpful explanation (to me).  Thanks!
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #844 on: May 14, 2014, 07:55:00 PM »
While most readers regularly monitor the CPC Nino indices updates; nevertheless, I would like to post the attached NOAA-CPC Nino3.4 monthly forecast issued May 14 2014; which formally acknowledges that one of the eight most recent model runs (using the CFSv2 model) projects a Super El Nino this season with the Nino3.4 index about 2.0 by the end of August, and essentially at 3.0 sometime in November.  I concur that at this time a 1 in 8 chance of a Super sounds reasonable; however, should the current MJO strengthen, and reach the Western Equatorial Pacific, by early June; then this probablity of a Super in the 2014-15 season should increase substantially (however, if the MJO stays weak, as it currently is, then we may only see a moderate El Nino event this season):
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #845 on: May 14, 2014, 08:23:56 PM »
The following NOAA news report states that for the past 30-years the zone of maximum intensity of Pacific, and Indian, Ocean tropical cyclones has been moving poleward in correspondence with the widening of the tropical zones in these area (see the quote below).  As EKWs are connected directly to a tight zone around the equator; I imagine the shifting the zone of maximum intensity of tropical storms poleward would serve as a negative feedback factor for El Ninos (on second thought, if the tropical cyclones are getting stronger than before than this poleward expansion of maximum intensity many not have any impact on El Ninos).

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2014: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature, (to appear tomorrow):

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140514_tropicalcyclone_poleward.html

Quote from the news release: ""The rate at which tropical cyclones are moving toward the poles is consistent with the observed rates of tropical expansion," explains Kossin. "The expansion of the tropics appears to be influencing the environmental factors that control tropical cyclone formation and intensification, which is apparently driving their migration toward the poles."
The expansion of the tropics has been observed independently from the poleward migration of tropical cyclones, but both phenomena show similar variability and trends, strengthening the idea that the two phenomena are linked. Scientists have attributed the expansion of the tropics in part to human-caused increases of greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone depletion, and increases in atmospheric pollution."

Also, see the following free access pdf by Vecchi et al (2014) about predicting tropical cyclones:

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/web_files/tc_prediction_research_summary_cvp_gfdl.pdf
« Last Edit: May 14, 2014, 10:25:07 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #846 on: May 14, 2014, 08:24:58 PM »
Can this event still fizzle?
Taking the early May situation in 2012 as example, there's not much reason to suppose it does. The surfacing of warmer waters in 1+2 is much stronger, the warm pool in the West Pacific was almost non-existent in '12.
Scrolling back through the Nino-years, '09 doesn't match, the only event comparable is 1997. And that one still had less anomaly in the extreme Western Pacific...

It looks (to me) to be squarely positioned between the 09-10 and 97-98 events in regards to how its shaped up so far. 

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #847 on: May 14, 2014, 11:11:04 PM »
The following link leads to a USGS article about El Nino rain induced landslides in the San Francisco Bay area during the 1997-98 event.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/1999/mf-2325/
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #848 on: May 15, 2014, 12:53:49 AM »
The following quote from the linked New Scientist article indicates that with regard to forecasted El Nino intensity, it is better for forecasters to be transparent, rather than conservative; considering the possible consequences of a Super El Nino being acknowledged too late to take adequate precautions:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229681.300-el-nino-forecasters-must-not-repeat-mistakes-of-1997.html#.U3Pxy6Pn_IU

Quote:  "Many leading scientists say the approaching El Niño looks similar in magnitude to the huge one that started in 1997 and went on to kill tens of thousands of people and cause tens of billions of dollars of damage. But you won't hear that sort of warning from official forecasters. They agree that an El Niño is likely, but are saying little about its potential strength.

Why is that? One of the key reasons for the devastation of 1997 was excess caution among forecasters. A major UN study published in 2000 revealed that for forecasters, an incorrect prediction is more embarrassing than no prediction at all. We may be seeing the same failings today.

There is still a chance that the threat will dissipate. But we won't know for sure until it is too late to prepare properly. If governments and emergency services are to be given enough time, they need full and frank forecasts now."
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #849 on: May 15, 2014, 01:38:21 AM »
According to the attached image issued May 14 2014 of a Ventrice projection of the expected 850-hPa winds in the Pacific, a mild westerly condition should begin tomorrow just west of the International Date Line (from the following link):

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
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