2014 El Nino?

[AbruptSLR]

I am posting the attached extreme water elevation plot for the Fort Point tide station in San Francisco (which is the oldest tide station in North America), from the following website:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9414290

The plot show the monthly highest water level with the 1%, 10%, 50%, and 99% annual exceedance probability levels in red, orange, green, and blue. The plotted values are in meters relative to the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) datum established by CO-OPS (1 foot = 0.3 meters). On average, the 1% level (red) will be exceeded in only one year per century, the 10% level (orange) will be exceeded in ten years per century, and the 50% level (green) will be exceeded in fifty years per century. The 99% level (blue) will be exceeded in all but one year per century, although it could be exceeded more than once in other years.

This plot shows that the extreme water level in SF was actually higher during the 1982-83 El Nino than during the 1997-98 El Nino, probably because of superimposed astronomical tides.  Thus if we have a Super El Nino in 2014-15 we could easily exceed the 1% exceedance probability level; which would mean to me that NOAA might need to re-calibrate their exceedance probability curves.

[AbruptSLR]

The following link leads to a free pdf about the costs ($4 billion in losses) and benefits ($19 billion in savings) for the United States due to weather changes associate with the 1997-98 El Nino event; which implies that we need to consider the possible benefits of a 2014-15 EL Nino, at least for the USA.

http://flare.creighton.edu/schragej/ats553-backupplan/changnon.pdf

[Csnavywx]

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97.html

Evolution of the '97-98 event from Scripps.

It appears we are roughly at the stage where the 97-98 event was in April of '97 (complete with the warm bubble appearing near the dateline), but with stronger anomalies. Note that event went on to have some +10-11C subsurface anomalies during the peak of the event.

[Csnavywx]

The following link leads to a free pdf about the costs ($4 billion in losses) and benefits ($19 billion in savings) for the United States due to weather changes associate with the 1997-98 El Nino event; which implies that we need to consider the possible benefits of a 2014-15 EL Nino, at least for the USA.

http://flare.creighton.edu/schragej/ats553-backupplan/changnon.pdf

Good for us, not so much for most of the rest of the world, unfortunately. Also, the long term effects (via disruption of normal carbon uptake by the biosphere) may offset some of that positive net short-term gain.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached image of the 30-day moving average of the SOI has a March 28 2014 value of -12.4.  While this number has been fluctuating in the past few days, it is still providing reinforcement from the atmosphere to strengthen the current El Nino condition.

[AbruptSLR]

Csnavywx,

Thanks for the great link to the Scripps summary about the 1997-98 El Nino.  This data makes it clear that when I said that the maximum temperature anomaly for the 1997-98 event was 4.5 C; I should have added: "at this point of the EKW development"; as obviously the maximum temperature anomaly for both our current EKM and the 1997-98 event occurs later in the year, at the peak of the event.  Although to my eye our current EKW looks larger than the 1997-98 EKW.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is an animation of the subsea temperature anomaly from January 23 to March 24 2014, so that you can watch this monster grow:

[AbruptSLR]

The first attached image from the Albany University shows the vorticity & wind forecast for April 5 2014.  This show that the development of the tropical storm near 140E and 5.5 N has been delayed by at least one to two days.

The second attached image of the tropical storm forecast for April 7 2014 shows this storm may advance very close to the Philippines by this date.

The third image shows the storm by April 8 2014, showing that it is forecast to intensify significantly just before hitting the Philippines.

Obviously, forecasts this far in the future have a lot of uncertainty, but the last two images shows that the entire atmosphere on either side of the equator is forecast to have a lot of convective activity by the second week in April, so tropical storm/cyclones could start developing then with more frequency.

[ChasingIce]

I don't know near as much as Abrupt, but I think its way too early to be calling something that just isn't there.  There's a reason they use 30-90 day averages for this sort of stuff. 

If you believe in the 3.4 regional prediction at all, then you'd at least wait for a single month to breach the 0.5 threshold before calling out a super el-nino. 

Its just not present in the data as far as I can see...

[Bruce Steele]

Here in Southern Calif. there are reports of Red Crab starting to show up. In every other big El Nino I have seen Red Crab are a biological signal that an El Nino is arriving. And yes I know it's early still.
ASLR has been calling this one way before NOAA and he also has made some projections about when the warm tongue is going to breach the surface in 3.4.  Other than annoying some commodity players I don't see the harm done in watching closely some of the interacting pieces besides the classic 3.4 surface waters. So we have learned a lot by his diligence and if ASLR turns out to be correct, and I believe he is , then next time everyone here watching will know a few of the drivers that preceed a big El Nino.

 

[TerryM]

AbruptSLR



The paper you linked to was by S A Changnon,
He's a warmist at best & is quoted widely by dyed in the wool skeptics.
I'd take anything he writes with a grain of salt.

Terry

[Csnavywx]

David Chagnon (S.A. Chagnon's son) was my meteorology and climatology professor when I went to NIU. Both of them are a wealth of climate information. Their work is quite useful in the Midwestern US (Illinois in particular, where I live). I can honestly say, Dave at least is concerned about climate change. David had sizable AGW sections in his courses. Stan is more of a historian, but from reading his stuff, he was concerned about AGW. The fact that fake skeptics use and distort some of his material is not reason to throw everything in the trash can.


In this case, there's no secret that a strong El Nino would provide some significant short-term benefits to the Southwest US and perhaps even a mild winter next year (especially compared to this year). El Ninos are also pretty good at suppressing Atlantic hurricanes (although not perfectly effective). The short-term benefits of that are pretty obvious. In the long-term and globally, the picture is much different. El Nino is a significant net negative when viewed with that scope (and a especially negative when viewing through the scope of the tropical biosphere -- especially coral).

[AbruptSLR]

To respond to ChasingIce's comment: (a) I am not an authority and I do not "call" either an El Nino event, nor a "Super El Nino" event, and I have never criticized agencies like NOAA for requiring 5-months worth of readings over a given threshold (Nino3.4, MEI, SOI or otherwise) before "officially" "calling" an El Nino event, let alone a Super El Nino; (b) What I have noted here is that several professionals (e.g. AccuWeather, the Peruvian Government, etc) have said that we are now in at least a mild El Nino condition; and I have said that by the end of March (but probably not later than the end of the first week of April) I believe that the Nino3.4 index will be at, or above, +0.5; (c) I have also quoted professional who have stated that if an El Nino event occurs now that in at least in that professional's (an associate professor from the University of Albany) opinion there is an 80% chance that such an El Nino will grow into a Super El Nino by the end of this year; (d) I have then gone on to discuss the implications of a Super El Nino and to speculate that a 2014-15 Super El Nino may well be stronger than the 1997-98 event; and (f) finally, I have noted that it would be imprudent for many decision makers, such as North American West Coast, and Peruvian, fishermen, to wait until August, or September when agencies like NOAA finally express sufficient confidence in their projections to "call" a strong El Nino event, as in the case of Peruvian fishermen they will likely see changes starting in April, while North American West Coast fishermen will likely see changes starting in June, both due to the CTWs changing the coastal waters; however, decision makers such as California State Government officials who need to guard the state from flood damage in the winter can probably wait until September before putting emergency flood protection funds into action.

As I believe that ENSO events are governed by chaotic strange attractors, I believe that it is possible to make meaningful statements about the likelihoods and consequences of a Super El Nino well before the ensemble mean models can offer reliable projections (probably around August to September); based on solid evidence such as the size and intensity of the current EKW.  Therefore, if a Super El Nino has little negative consequence (or possible benefits) to you personally (say because you live in the North American East Coast and you can expect a mild winter with fewer hurricanes) then it is right and appropriate that you wait until NOAA have made an "official" call; but if you are living on the edge of serious negative consequences (23,000 deaths world-wide due to the 1997-98 El Nino), then I would advise you to pay attention to the signs that are clearly evident today.

[AbruptSLR]

Terry,

Thanks for the heads-up.  I think that in a constantly changing (non-stationary) world that we should all question all of our source information, but I do agree with Csnavywx that it is almost certain that in aggregate the USA will benefit more economically from a strong El Nino event in 2014-15 (like ending the droughts in California and the mid-West); while the world in aggregate will almost certainly sustain more economic losses than benefits (in- particular Asia will most likely sustain serious economic and human losses due to a large number of typhoons and Super Typhoons if a Super El Nino does develop).  I believe that getting the facts out will help individual decision makers to make the best decisions that they can both to reduce losses and to maximize benefits (such as reduced heating in Southern Canada and the US East Coast this coming winter).

Best,
ASLR

[Bruce Steele]

ASLR, If I used the word "calling" in some inappropriate way please excuse me. Any of us who use this or any other public forum will have to defend ourselves and I was only trying to show support for what you have been doing here.
 We have discussed in the past what the nature of a Black Swan event really is when certain odds of it's occurrence seem to present themselves. With that in mind I would like to say I think the combination of several factors, 1) a slowly rising sea level as documented by a long term data-set at San Francisco, 2) the chance of a large El Nino combined with a large Sierra snowpack and intensified early spring melts 3) an aged levy system 4) storm surge 5) King tide 2015 6) the ever present threat of large calif. earthquakes , the makes the chance ( however remote ) of losing the delta project and the Calif. water delivery system a possibility. Should that occur any benefits of a break in the drought will be nullified by the economic cost of that event. After any such catastrophe almost every elected official and person of authority will claim " Black Swan " but in reality other than the earthquake potential the date of that event is much more likely on those very predictable  king tide dates that come in early spring when snowpack melt and large rain events coincide here in Calif. during large El Nino events. The fact our reservoirs are currently very low does provide a certain amount of safety but they can fill fairly quickly.
 Completely off subject here but I have been standing on top of the biggest hill I can find shouting as loud as I can shout about the dangers of " ocean acidification ". I am no stranger to the criticism I bring upon myself for getting way out in front. It is never fun , never easy and there is no satisfaction in being proved correct.  There is a place in this world for such action although being proved wrong is obviously  a risk of the trade .   

[AbruptSLR]

Bruce,

I agree with the points that you make in your post, but now to get back to a review of the evidence available to us:

Due to NOAA's Toga-Tao buoy array the 1997-98-Super-El Nino event represents a unique case where we can look at real measured data (not computer model projections, which have limitations).  Therefore, I am posting four (for April, May & September 1997 and for January 1998) of the Scripps subsurface temperature anomaly plots from the site that Csnavywx provided a link to (see figure captions and link below):

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97.html

Caption for the first image: "In April of 1997, something interesting happened. El Niños grow because of an unstable interaction between winds and the ocean that works like this: if the ocean warms in the center of the Pacific (where "D" is pointing to in the picture), then the winds tend to get weaker there. But when the winds get weaker, the ocean gets warmer. Then the winds get weaker still, and the process keeps going. For the current El Niño, you first see this starting to happen around April of 1997."

Caption for the second image: "By May, it's starting to look like it's going to be a big El Niño. The warm patch in the center of the Pacific, the one you could see forming in April, has started expanding to the east. At the same time, the surface waters off Peru are starting to get unusually warm. The warm anomaly below the surface is quite strong, over 6 degrees Celsius (about 11 F)."

Caption for the third image: "By September 1997, a strong El Niño is underway. Surface temperatures are 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (4 to 7 degrees F) warmer than usual, starting at the coast of South America and stretching to the dateline -- that's a quarter of the way around the planet!"

Caption for the fourth image: "In January of 1998, the El Niño is fully underway. The cold anomaly in the subsurface western Pacific has also expanded towards the east; this may be an early sign of an upcoming cold-water event ("La Niña")."

While I believe that the 1997-98 Super El Nino potentially may not be as severe as a 2014-15 El Nino [for reason such as: (i) 1997-98 was in a period of decreasing PDO while 2014-15 is in a period of increasing PDO/IPO; (ii) the 2014-15 EKW is occurring about one month earlier and for the same location of EKW is already more intense than the 1997-98 EKW; (iii) the ocean-atmosphere positive reinforcement loop is starting about one month earlier in 2014 than in 1997; (iv) the amount of warm water stored in the Western Equatorial Pacific has a larger volume and is warmer in 2014 than in 1997; and (v) there are already forecasts that the 2014 typhoon season may begin about one month earlier than in 1997], and that the 1982-83 El Nino might actually serve as a better case study for a possible 2014-15 Super El Nino [as: (a) it occurred during a period of increasing PDO/IPO; and (b) the recently ended period of increased La Nina events had built-up a meaningful pool of warm water in the Western Equatorial Pacific], nevertheless, we only have good data for the 1997-98 Super El Nino event (which of course is the strongest El Nino in recorded history so it is a good case study).  Therefore, I offer the following observations about the Scripps subsurface temperature anomaly images:
(a) As noted in the caption for the April 1997 image the stem of warm water labeled "D" near the dateline serves to initiate the positive ocean-atmosphere reinforcement that we are currently observing in March 2014, which is the signature indication that an El Nino event (mild or otherwise) is beginning.  The fact that the maximum temperature anomaly in April 1997 was only about 4.5 degrees C while the max. temp. anomaly by the end of March 2014 is over 7 degrees C, is most likely due to the facts that: (a) the water moving eastward from the Western Equatorial Pacific is more voluminous and warmer than in 1997, (b) the Peru-Humboldt current off the coast of Peru is being slowed down sooner [& thus is sending less cold water westward] than in 1997 [the fact that a deep warm-water bulb of water exists of the coast of Peru/Ecuador below -250m water depth in March 2014 is an indication to me that the upwelling  in this area is already being reduced because the 2014 EKW is so large that it ready reached the west coast of South America very early in the season so as to effect the Peru-Humboldt current very early]; and (c) the temperature anomaly is measured relative to the seasonal expected base temperature, so early arrival of the 2014 EKM has an effect on the temperature anomalies measured.
(b) The May 1997 subsurface temp. anomaly plot indicates that the PDO reinforcement in 1997 was comparable to (or less than) the current March PDO conditions as supported by the SST images that deep octopus posted for March 27 2014 (in Reply #384).  I would expect the shape of the April 2014 subsurface plots to be similar to the May 1997 plot, except that I would expect the maximum temperature anomaly in April 2014 to be at least 2.5 degrees C higher [and possibly more] than in May 1997.
(c) The September 1997 plot shows a strong El Nino had already formed, and that NOAA certainly made this information available publically; and I would expect that it is possible that similar condition may occur in 2014 by August, thus possibly allowing NOAA and other agencies even more time to provide advance warning of an impending Super El Nino.
(d) The January 1998 plot shows a cold-water EKW moving westward, signally the coming of the La Nina that followed the 1997-97 El Nino event.  While I believe that it is likely that if a Super El Nino occurs in 2014-15 that it will probably be followed by a La Nina; but depending on the Fall (austral Spring) IOD, it is possible that a 2014-15 Super El Nino could extend into 2016.

[deep octopus]

Beautiful graphics. I find that three-dimensional visualization to be informative to explain the behavior of the Kelvin wave on the surface and below. Thanks ASLR, and thanks Csnavywx for sharing the link.

I'm also tending to be in the camp that if we get a moderate or strong El Niño, it will be followed by a similarly strong La Niña. The massive volume of warm water moving east, I suppose, must leave behind a vacuum of cooler water in the western Pacific. La Niña ensues to recharge the western Pacific warm pool. If PDO stays warm, then the La Niña will be muted, but present for sure. Will depend on Kelvin wave feedbacks of course. We very well could get a back-to-back El Niño for 2014-2016, but these are rare sets. Back-to-back El Niños were observed in 1986-1988, 1968-1970, and 1957-1959. I believe similar events occurred in the early 1940s. This is not always a function of PDO, as back-to-back events have occurred in cool PDO periods, but it is an interesting feature. We really won't know until the next Kelvin wave.

I distinctly remember winter 2009/2010 starting off very wet (two major snow storms in the mid-Atlantic region), typical for El Niño, and then by summer was hot and dry for days on end, before cathartic, very heavy downpours would ensue. Then the dry, but humid, heat waves would return for days and repeat the cycle. I take this summer pattern to be typical of La Niña in the eastern United States, with the warmth and relative dryness. The volatile bursts of storms and lingering heat waves were noteworthy in summer 2010, 2011, and 2012—all typical La Niña behaviors, amped up by climate change. I can imagine that some volatility in 2010 could be attributed to the rapid succession of the changing Pacific state, transitioning from moderate El Niño to strong La Niña. I can imagine summer 2015 being very hot if that kind of succession takes place. Who knows of course, it's well into the future right now.

[AbruptSLR]

deep octopus,

I am glad you enjoyed the graphics (I like them also, and I also found them educational).

Separately, the following links lead to articles from around the world indicating that many decision makers are deciding now (generally for entities that will be effected sooner rather than later) to take consideration of the risks of a strong 2014-15 El Nino into their plans/actions:

The first link indicates that in Brazil a major sugar grower has started to harvest their sugar cane early before local rains affect their harvest:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/brazil-sugar-gvo-idUSL1N0MP16H20140328

The second linked indicate that weathermen in Australia are issuing announcements that the risk of El Nino related droughts are increasing:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/26/el-nino-threatens-australian-crops/

The third linked article (to an Indian newspaper) indicates that insurers (particularly in India) are starting to reduce their exposures to El Nino consequences:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/general-insurers-turn-cautious-on-el-nino-threat-114032800787_1.html

The fourth linked article indicates that experts in Peru have confirmed that CTWs will almost certainly enter their waters from Ecuador and will induce weak to moderate local El Nino conditions in April, and they advise local anchovy fishermen to start their fishing season early before the anchovy are driven away:

http://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?monthyear=&day=27&id=67408&l=e&special=&ndb=1%20target=

Such article indicate that the El Nino experts hired by these relatively large decision makers, believe that either: (a) the current EKW has sufficient energy to create at least a weak El Nino without any further atmospheric reinforcement; and/or that (b) the oceanic-atmospheric reinforcement loop is currently well enough established that they can advise their clients to take precautionary measures (there are many other examples on the Internet that can be found with a simple search).

ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached images show a weather forecast for April 7 & 8 respectively, still indicate that a strong tropic storm will form around 140E and 5N by April 7 that will then strengthen fuller before it impact the Philippines on April 8 2014.

[deep octopus]

FishOutofWater, who frequently writes in Daily Kos, has posted a diary on the Kelvin wave. Most of what he writes has been covered extensively on this thread, but the comments provide additional information for anyone with a hardcore interest in this topic.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/28/1287920/-Huge-Wave-in-Pacific-Ocean-About-to-Hit-West-Coast-Will-Have-Global-Impacts#

A Kelvin wave is a mass of warm(er) water that has no distinguishing features whatsoever besides that thermal difference. It is big enough to change how the entire ocean works, shifting currents, stopping upwellings (vertical currents), and otherwise changing the weather patterns above. Subtler, and much less dramatic than a tsunami, but perhaps no less hazardous when examined on a big scale over months and even years.

Emphasis my own.

The intensity of this Kelvin wave is news (61+ / 0-)

I pulled together some very fresh information from multiple reliable sources. If you take a good look at the first image you will see that the leading edge of the wave is beginning to warm up the surface waters on the equator. I have not been hyperbolic about the size of this Kelvin wave. It's the Jupiter of Kelvin waves.

Of course, I have known for months that an El Nino was likely. What's interesting is how this wave has developed into "a monster". That's news.

I hope that readers better understand how an El Nino works from reading this post.

[ChasingIce]

Abrupt:  I think you took my post in the wrong manner. 

I LOVE your posts, your excellent analysis (I'm learning a lot), and I absolutely support any talk about the dangers of another El Nino.  Being from Southern California, I'm also ROOTING for a modest change in the weather due to the drought.  There is a multi-billion dollar farming industry that is also rooting for such an event. 

I'm just a realist however, and we've had quite a number of years lately where an El Nino gets predicted down here, and then it fizzles.  Please forgive my posting style, as I came off a bit unbecoming and that was not my intent. 

[AbruptSLR]

ChasingIce.

Thanks for your explanation.  It is still possible that this El Nino could fizzle (note that the attached SOI plot for March 30 2014 have become less negative and is now -11.8 ); however that said, no one has ever recorded an equatorial Kelvin wave as powerful as this current EKW; so I would be surprised if we do not experience at least 5 months of a moderate El Nino; however, I agree that no one knows for sure whether a Super El Nino will form by this winter (austral summer).

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

While I have shown the attached image before (of sea level at Fort Point San Francisco, and the subsurface water temperatures at the Davenport mooring near Monterey Bay); I am reposting because I think that it is interested that figure 4 in Reply #415 indicates that the peak temperature anomaly in the 1997-98 EKW occurred offshore Ecuador in January 1998; while the water elevation offshore of Fort Point did not experience its peak due to the associated CTW until almost mid-February 1998, and while the SF king tides in 2015 occur in January; there are still relatively very high tide in early February.  Therefore if a Super occurs in 2014-2015 (as Bruce notes) it will be interesting to see when the CTW induce sea level rise occurs relative to the king tides.

[Bruce Steele]

ASLR, I tried to look around for tide charts that went into spring of 2015, looking for king tides but got nowhere. I think looking for projections at Pittsberg or someplace close to Sacramento would be interesting. Silly question maybe but is the sea level chart you linked read in inches?   16 + inches at peak " flood." somewhere near Feb.1 , 1998.  Is that on top of what a tide chart would be showing  and how much storm surge might also be possible or is that already in the chart you showed?
I know Corp. Of Engineers must surely understand the risks but it surely isn't common knowledge.
February would more likely align with spring melt in the Sierra and that too probably comes sooner during the relative warm conditions of a El Nino. Spring floods also raise river flows and water levels upstream from the water diversion dams so the problem with storm surge+ extreme high tides+ CTW is it leaves nowhere for the water to go should the Sacramento and San Joaquin be at flood stage.
I know that is obvious to you but I thought I would state the obvious.
 For anyone out there not familiar with the Delta project you should think of it kinda like the dikes and levys the the Netherlands...there is a lot of farmland below the river levels already and if the levy's break it allows saltwater to flood farmland . Even if it is pumped back out after the flood subsides the salt will render the farmland useless. Maybe someone else can better describe how the delta project keeps the saltwater and freshwater separate now but shipping does occur above the diversion damns so there most also be locks for shipping but I shouldn't be exposing my ignorance. How the system works just isn't common knowledge to the people( water users ) dependent on it's functioning.   

[AbruptSLR]

Bruce,

(1)  The following link provides tide information for 2015, all along the West Coast, and the button named "San Francisco" I believe is for Fort Point; and yes the sea level data shown in the Fort Point figure is in inches, and it does not include either tides or storm surge.

http://www.protides.com/california/

(2) Regarding storm surge estimates for the USA you can get them from FEMA's FIRM program (see the following links):

https://msc.fema.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/FemaWelcomeView?storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&langId=-1

https://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/?cid=Search_GoogleAdwords_FEMABrand_c_g_b_fema%20flood%20plain%20maps

(c) Information about the program (which does not include ship locks) for the California Delta can be found at the following links:

http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/

http://www.water.ca.gov/
 
Unfortunately, I am traveling for this entire week and will not have time for many posts.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

With the Tropical Ocean Atmosphere (TAO) array of moored buoys falling into disarray, the linked Scripps article discusses: (a) NOAA's plan to service TAO by the end of 2014, and (b) two programs: TPOS and ARGO that will help to supplement the diminishing capability of TAO.  Extracts from the article are:

-  NOAA has announced that it will be able to service many of the buoys and expects most to be reporting by the end of 2014; however, prospects for continued servicing remain unclear.

- Tropical Pacific Ocean Observing System (TPOS) to provide critical data by 2020.

-  Scripps is adding 48 profiling floats to the global arsenal of the NOAA-funded Argo network to supplement missing TAO moorings. A vessel left Jan. 2 from San Diego to deploy them along the full length of the Pacific equator.  These floats measure temperature and salinity from the sea surface to 2,000 meters deep, and are dispersed throughout the world’s oceans to create a comprehensive view of ocean conditions that was impossible before 2000.
Along the equator they provide a more focused view of ocean variability than the small number of TAO moorings, and they extend this view to a much greater depth. And while moorings must be serviced every year, the floats will keep going for five years.  Another recent Scripps creation, the Spray glider, will be deployed along transects that follow the path of one line of TAO buoys. Other research organizations are also chipping in technology to avoid gaps in El Niño data caused by TAO’s demise. The TPOS of 2020 will likely include moorings, but these too will be new designs with longer life, and in balance with other elements of the modernized observing system.


http://www.sddt.com/Commentary/article.cfm?SourceCode=20140210tza&Commentary_ID=137&_t=Scripps+research+projects+monitor+sea+air#.Uzfy36Pn_IU

Again, I a traveling this week and thus I will not be posting as much.

[Shared Humanity]

-  NOAA has announced that it will be able to service many of the buoys and expects most to be reporting by the end of 2014; however, prospects for continued servicing remain unclear.

Given that the Republican Party has introduced legislation in Congress that would require NOAA to focus on weather events at the expense of climate research, I doubt that NOAA will be given the funding to support these buoys.

[AbruptSLR]

The SOI is continuing to fluctuate and has become more negative again and now is -12.3 (see the attached plot for March 31 2014 [Australian Time]):

[Apocalypse4Real]

AbruptSLR,

Thanks for all your work on this. I was wondering what you were using to created the tropical prediction graphics for April 8 and 9?

The OISST is showing expanding areas of above normal SST in the central Pacific. Attached is the latest for March 29.

[AbruptSLR]

A4R,

I am using the wunderground / wundermap at the following link:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

Attached is an April 9 2014 forecast per Wundermap of a tropical storm forecast to hit the Philippines:

[AbruptSLR]

For what it is worth, earlier in this thread I noted that El Nino events (particularly strong El Nino events) re-locates the ABSL (which is normally only active from about October to March) to blow wind and consequently Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE; however, I would also like to note that both El Nino events and positive Antarctic Oscillation index (AAO or SAM) values promote the telecommunication of Tropical Pacific atmospheric energy to the Western Antarctic.  In this regard, see the attached AAO plots showing positive values, and the earth surface wind map showing wind blowing directly towards the ASE.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest weekly outlook is now available http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Look at those upper ocean heat anomalies grow!


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This week

[Shared Humanity]

For what it is worth, earlier in this thread I noted that El Nino events (particularly strong El Nino events) re-locates the ABSL (which is normally only active from about October to March) to blow wind and consequently Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE; however, I would also like to note that both El Nino events and positive Antarctic Oscillation index (AAO or SAM) values promote the telecommunication of Tropical Pacific atmospheric energy to the Western Antarctic.  In this regard, see the attached AAO plots showing positive values, and the earth surface wind map showing wind blowing directly towards the ASE.

This cannot be good news for the Achilles heel of the WAIS.

[SATire]

it is starting to look like my estimate that the Nino3.4 index would exceed +0.5 by the first week in April may have been too conservative, as it is possible that that value could be exceeded by the end of this week. 

AbruptSLR, let me thank you for the variety of insights and the connections you gave helping me to understand some relationships of this topic. Now it seems that some of your predictions may be the case right now, since jaxa detects about +0.5C in Nino3 on 31.03. allready (see picture attached, source here: http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/elni2/elni2.cgi?lang=e ).

Thank you for your posts.

[AbruptSLR]

SH,

Over the past year I have mixed in several posts in the Antarctic folder about the interaction between ENSO and the WAIS.

SATire,

Thank you for both your kind words and for the very early indication that the Nino3 (which should not be mixed-up with the Nino3.4) reached a value of +0.5 on March 31, 2014.

All,

The first attached image shows the 30-day moving average for SOI to April 1, 2014 which has become more negative and is now -12.8.  Furthermore, the second image indicates that the cloud cover near the equatorial dateline is once again increasing.  These could be fluctuations, or the could be the beginning of a long ramp-up to a strong El Nino.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

Please compare the attached NOAA SST anomaly chart for March 31 2014, with the comparable chart that deep octopus posted for March 27 2014 in Reply #384.  This chart clearly shows: (a) the SST anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific is increasing rapidly and I expect a relatively high Nino3.4 index value when we get the next weekly report; and (b) the coastal trapped (Kelvin) wave (CTW) is strengthening off of the coast of Peru on a daily basis in this timeframe.

[AbruptSLR]

The first attached image from Cyclocane of the 48-hr forecast for the Tropical Pacific shows that the risk tropical storms is rapidly increasing (as compared to the past week).

The second and third images from the Albany University forecasts of vorticity and surface winds for April 7 and April 8, respectively; support the past Wunderground projections that a powerful tropical storm (typhoon) will be directed towards the Philippines in about one weeks time.

It appears that the Pacific typhoon season will likely start early this year.

[deep octopus]

Yes, the sea surface starting to look very El Niño-ish now. Orange tints of warm water span the vast Pacific. It's now uniformly above average along the equator. This chart is five days from NOAA's weekly temperature readings (March 26th at +0.2 C), by the way, so the March 31 chart is more indicative of something close to +0.5 C.

[idunno]

An aside:

I am more inclined to regard the Atlantic as the more significant ocean wrt the Arctic, as the Pacific/Arctic water interface is only 60 miles wide and 60 metres deep. OTOH, if the Arctic was ice-free, we could as well call in the North Atlantic. There is little or no underwater bathymetric reason to separate the two bodies of water.

All of which just gives me an excuse to again mention one of my idees fixees, the following graduate paper...

http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf

...which found that, after examining a range of possible predictors of sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea in October, including ENSO, the best was the SST in the CARRIBEAN (?!?) in May (!?!).

I would guess that the current developing El Nino is likely to raise the SST of the Carribean in May?

Also, if anybody has the ability to calculate if Stone's prognoses also hold good for 2010-2013, I would be very interested.

[Pmt111500]

Sure looking like at least mid-sized Nino is coming, I'll throw in a guess of almost full Nino conditions by the end of september, then depending on size rising at least to November. 2015 early summer (I think there's a six month lag involved in the effects in most areas over 40 degrees latitude) could slash some temperature records all over the Northern Hemisphere.

[deep octopus]

El Niño or not, this year is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record already. A preliminary look at Daily Composite data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tells me that this past March is going to be significant. The current NASA record is March 2002 with +0.90 C over 1951-1980, followed by 2010 at +0.88 C. I'm expecting 2014 to come in around the top five, and as high as 3rd place. So I roughly estimate a 1951-1980 anomaly of +0.65 to 0.75 C.

[Lord M Vader]

Seems like we have a very interesting week ahead.. Two areas in the tropics close to equator with a current low possibility to develop into tropical cyclones.. The one in WPAC seems to be the one which have the best chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.. ECMWF 12z run means bad news for Phillippinia...

The GFS doesn't give any better news and also develops the low into a TC..

If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named "Peipah"... In my ears it sounds like a bad name...

ASLR, do you have some valuable links to check daily change? I have only looked at NOAAs and BOMs updates and they are only for once a week...

[BornFromTheVoid]

El Niño or not, this year is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record already. A preliminary look at Daily Composite data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tells me that this past March is going to be significant. The current NASA record is March 2002 with +0.90 C over 1951-1980, followed by 2010 at +0.88 C. I'm expecting 2014 to come in around the top five, and as high as 3rd place. So I roughly estimate a 1951-1980 anomaly of +0.65 to 0.75 C.

I'd be surprised if we were that high. The (relatively) cold northern continents would result in a slight cool bias to the March values, given the general underestimation of Arctic warming and lack of coverage. We also have the lag time between ENSO and global temperatures, with the recent DJF having the lowest Niño 3.4 value since DJF 2012.
I'd have expected UAH to be near the top 3, but most others to be ranked marginally higher than February.

[AbruptSLR]

Lord Vader,

If you are looking for a current daily Nino3.4 reading, I have never found one, and the BoM and NOAA data is what I rely on.  However, the following Dutch site does provide daily Nino3.4 values that are about 10 to 12 days old (if you want to do analysis of daily variations/trends):

http://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=NCEPData/nino5_daily&STATION=NINO3.4&TYPE=i&id=someone@somewhere&NPERYEAR=366

[AbruptSLR]

The attached NASA Jason-2 satellite sea level data for March 22 2014, shows how big of a monster the EKW was about 10-days ago (see the following link for the source):

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/

[deep octopus]

Revealing chart. Fascinatingly enough, the March 22nd chart indicates a more dramatic sea level rise than in November 2009, with "El Niño Picking Up Steam." If that was picking up steam, then we're about 7 months ahead of the 2009 event.

[AbruptSLR]

Extract from article: "Icochea, however, does not accept the parallel with 2012. Although that year also saw similarly abnormally high temperatures in waters close to Australia, Icochea argues that in 2012 a core of cold water towards South America blocked the advance of El Nino, something that is not happening now.
Rather, the researcher says the event this year is developing similarly as it did in 1997-98 and, if the patterns of the event continue as now, El Nino will hit mostly northern Peru and Ecuador, with consequences on the fishing industry to play out by the end of the year."

http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/01/perus-anchovy-fishmeal-sector-set-for-strong-el-nino-effect-in-2014-expert-says/

[davidsanger]

the following graduate paper...http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf ...which found that, after examining a range of possible predictors of sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea in October, including ENSO, the best was the SST in the CARRIBEAN (?!?) in May (!?!).

...if anybody has the ability to calculate if Stone's prognoses also hold good for 2010-2013, I would be very interested.

idunno :: I asked her on Twitter and Megan replied :

"I never verified as I lost access to the NSIDC dataset I was using when I graduated. I will let my professor (Dr. Tom Murphree) know and maybe he can get another student to verify and investigate the connection between Caribbean SSTs and Beaufort Sea SIC. thnx!"

[AbruptSLR]

The first two attached images are both from the Australian BoM issued April 2 2014.  The first image is of the SOI, which has become more negative with a value of -13.3.  The second image is of the average Nino3.4 index for the week ending March 30, which has increased to +0.27, which is below the threshold value of +0.5.

The third image is the 48-hr tropical storm forecast issued April 1, showing an increased risk of cyclone activity.