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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #450 on: April 02, 2014, 08:54:12 AM »
While my previous post indicates that for the average of the week ending March 30 2014 the Central Tropical Pacific had not yet reached a provisional El Nino status (also I note here that the Walker Cell also has not yet transitioned into a provisional El Nino condition), probably because there have not been any Westerly Wind Blasts, WWBs, for over a week; nevertheless, the trade winds are currently suppressed (supported by the relatively negative SOI value of -13.3) and the following WunderMap forecasts, for April 4, 5, 6, and 7, respectively, indicate that there is a strong chance of WWBs occurring in the Western Equatorial Pacific starting within a few days.   Therefore, there is a strong likelihood that a provisional El Nino status will be reached by either the end of the first week in April or else by mid-April:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #451 on: April 02, 2014, 09:00:08 AM »
The attached earth surface wind map for the morning of April 2 2014 supports my prior statement that the Equatorial Pacific trade winds are suppressed, but that the Walker Cell has not yet transitioned into a full El Nino condition yet (as there are no substantial westerlies in the Western Equatorial Pacific):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

tombond

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #452 on: April 02, 2014, 02:30:26 PM »
Interesting article on forecasting El Nino in 2014,  Climate scientists and forecasters are on high alert as the system is primed.  We just need to wait to see if the pool of warm water continues eastwards across the Pacific over the next few months.

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972


idunno

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #453 on: April 02, 2014, 06:05:07 PM »
A further  aside;

@David sanger

"idunno :: I asked her on Twitter and Megan replied : "

That's fantastic news. Thank you very much. (I have had a real bee in my bonnet over this extraordinary finding since stumbling over it a couple of years ago.)

I have posted a longer reaction over on the ASIB on the latest SEARCH thread, where it is, unusually for me, bang on topic. If you do happen to cross Megan again, (I don't tweet), (hint) you might also mention that an awful lot of clever people are now trying to find a good predictor of Autumn SIE, and none of them appear to be 1. using her method, 2. getting the right answer.

I'd suggest a SEARCH contribution.

AndrewP

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #454 on: April 02, 2014, 08:50:58 PM »
I would at this point only put the odds of a super-nino (>2.0C ONI) at 10 or 20%. There have been many moderate and strong El Ninos in the last 100 years and only 3 (72-73, 82-83 and 97-98) were 'super' El Ninos.

The CPC may be a little slow and conservative, but there's a reason they only give a 50% chance of an El Nino at all. The subsurface anomalies last year were impressive as well. Not as impressive as this year (roughly half) but we didn't get any El Nino at all (not even close).

I would at this point give an 80-90% chance of El Nino, 50-60% chance of moderate, 20-30% chance of strong, and 10-20% chance of 'super.'

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #455 on: April 03, 2014, 12:38:10 AM »
Cyclocane issued the following tropical storm warning for the Northwest Pacific, issued on April 2, 2014 (see also the first attached tropical storm warning image):

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.5N
150.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.9N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 724 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 021658Z 37 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
LLCC, BUT RECENTLY THE EIR INDICATES THAT THE SYMMETRY IS IMPROVING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AS
WELL. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE
ISLAND OF PALAU AS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022000) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."


The second attached earth surface wind map for April 2 2014 shows the tropical storm/cycles forming.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #456 on: April 03, 2014, 01:21:32 AM »
I thought that some people would like to see BoM's Nino3 and Nino4 indices plots through the week ending March 30 2014, which are provided as attachments 1 & 2, respectively:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #457 on: April 03, 2014, 02:08:15 AM »
As today WunderMap increased the intensity of the tropical storm that it is forecasting around 2N and west of 140E, I am posting forecasts for April 5, 6, 8 and 9 (note on April 9th the tropical storm (typhoon) is estimated to make landfall in the Philippines:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #458 on: April 03, 2014, 05:53:04 AM »
The attached BoM image is of the 30-day moving average for the SOI through April 3 2014 and has a value of -13.2 which indicates that this index is strong but still fluctuating:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #459 on: April 03, 2014, 03:53:41 PM »
The Cyclocane tropical storm warning (see quote below) for the Western North Pacific area now recognizes the formation of a tropical depression (TD05W) near 1.8N & 147.7E
 
Quote: "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 1.8N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 861 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS."

The attached earth surface wind map for the morning of April 3 2014 shows that TD05W is strengthening & could become a tropical storm before too long.  Also note that this image shows that the trade winds are completely absent in the equatorial zone west of the date line:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #460 on: April 03, 2014, 04:19:49 PM »
Upwelling water east of the Galapagos continues for now, but models of the Niño 2 region say this, too, should warm up this month. The upwelling of the Humboldt Current is showing clear signs of stress as warm water rushes in.



The Pacific basin WWV is now at its highest point, by far, since 1997. I take this to be a warning sign of reciprocating Niño 3.4 anomalies to come, but, as with every other metric, by no means is a crystal ball.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #461 on: April 03, 2014, 04:55:39 PM »
The attached NOAA chart updated to March 26 2014, helps to illustrate why it should be easier to forecast a strong El Nino after May based on the Nino3.4 index (see the middle panel of the attached image of SSTs (both average and observed) in different areas), because after May the climatological average water temperatures in this area should be dropping naturally; however, if an El Nino condition is sustainable these water temperatures should be increasing; which would result in a relatively rapid increase in the Nino3.4 index values through the summer of 2014:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

opensheart

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #462 on: April 03, 2014, 07:32:45 PM »
According to some maps of effects of El Nino, Cincinnati Ohio USA usually gets more rain as the jet stream moves north over the easter half of the US.   

Right now, here in Cincinnati, we are in the middle of a @30 hour rain event.   Wave after wave of light, moderate and heavy rain.

A couple days ago, it was dry enough here to have a grass fire along the expressway.  Now we have flood watches.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #463 on: April 04, 2014, 01:27:22 AM »
According to the linked article and the attached image from: www.StormVistaWxmodels.com

The Nino3.4 index took a rapid upturn on the morning of April 2 2014 and is now above +0.5 (on a daily basis, not a weekly averaged basis):

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/el-nio-rolling-back-around_2-ar42582
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #464 on: April 04, 2014, 01:36:39 AM »
According to the linked April 2nd article, El Nino weather conditions may already be occurring in Indonesia:

http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/93479/el-nino-potentially-occurs-in-indonesia-agency

Based on the early start of our current event, and on the 1997-98 El Nino behavior, I imagine that that Nino3.4 index will equal or exceed a value of +2.0 before the end of August 2014.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #465 on: April 04, 2014, 01:46:41 AM »
According to the April 4 editorial quote from the following link, some El Nino experts are warning of a "monster" El Nino in 2014-15:

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?xfile=/data/editorial/2014/April/editorial_April7.xml&section=editorial

"Some have warned that the ‘monster’ El Nino this year could be more powerful than the one that occurred in 1997-98; if the prognostication proves to be right, 2015 can turn out to be the warmest year in living memory. The massive release of thermal energy in the Pacific Ocean during an El Nino event can have a devastating impact on global weather patterns, even upsetting the south-west monsoon, on which the lives of millions of farmers is dependent."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #466 on: April 04, 2014, 02:08:12 AM »
According to the UN (see link), by the end of March 2014 worldwide food prices had reached there highest level in 10 months, partially due to concerns that a strong El Nino will have a negative impact on average food production worldwide:

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=47499&Cr=&Cr1=#.Uz33NKPn_IU
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #467 on: April 04, 2014, 02:47:19 AM »
The attached earth wind map at 250hPa for April 3 2014 indicates to me that a weak El Nino condition may be beginning for the Walker Cell:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #468 on: April 04, 2014, 02:54:23 AM »
The following link takes you straight to the most recently posted daily Nino3.4 provided by the Dutch knmi:

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat

The following list presents the daily Nino3.4 index values from March 12 to March 26 2014:
2014  3 12    -0.40
2014  3 13    -0.33
2014  3 14    -0.26
2014  3 15    -0.19
2014  3 16    -0.11
2014  3 17    -0.04
2014  3 18     0.03
2014  3 19     0.10
2014  3 20     0.11
2014  3 21     0.13
2014  3 22     0.14
2014  3 23     0.16
2014  3 24     0.17
2014  3 25     0.19
2014  3 26     0.20
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #469 on: April 04, 2014, 03:00:10 AM »
The attached image presents the 30-day moving average SOI value through April 4 2014 (Sydney time), has a value of -11.9; which is more positive than yesterday's value of -13.2, but which is still sufficiently negative to be reinforcing the development of an El Nino event:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #470 on: April 04, 2014, 05:24:19 AM »
The following link takes you straight to the most recently posted daily Nino3.4 provided by the Dutch knmi:

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat


Actually they seem to be the NOAA OISST.v2 weekly numbers interpolated.

Quote
"# NINO index # 5 (5=3.4) from <a href="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/">CPC</a>
# interpolated from weekly to daily values
# SSTa [Celsius]"

idunno

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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #472 on: April 04, 2014, 03:53:59 PM »
Alternative, daily OISST chart for April 3rd.


deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #473 on: April 04, 2014, 04:36:40 PM »
March 29th subsurface graph of the Kelvin wave. The 25 C isotherm has sagged considerably. Normally, these isotherms would have a gentle upward slope from the western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific. Because of how warm the Kelvin wave is, the slope of the isotherm is actually inverted. If we have a broadly flat isotherm along the Pacific basin, it will be the clearest signal yet of an El Niño, since the mixing layer/upwelling is suppressed. The slope is flattening in the eastern Pacific, but a full transformation will take a few months. The flatness is what also causes these large spikes in the ocean heat content and warm water volume.


ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #474 on: April 04, 2014, 04:42:20 PM »
Alternative, daily OISST chart for April 3rd.



Being somewhat colorblind, and having a very hard discerning differences in light shades of yellow, I really detest that particular map. 

This is the map I always reference, as it updates daily and is easy to differentiate the colors:

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #475 on: April 04, 2014, 05:01:31 PM »
The equatorial upper ocean heat anomaly continues to grow, from 1.3 to 1.5 and now 1.6C over the last 3 updates, lots of adjustments to that Y axis required.






ChasingIce,
I personally prefer the new version of the unisys map. I find the one you use makes things look cooler than reality by using light blue for average temperatures. Though if yellow is an issue with you, this won't be any better!

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #476 on: April 04, 2014, 05:07:38 PM »
I can appreciate the difficulty to read the shades of color. My favorite reason for ever referring to the OISST charts is simply because they have frequent (daily!) updates. It interpolates to 1/4 of a degree, so its highly specific. The problem is that it makes it too busy and harder on the eyes. If they hired a few artists at NOAA to clean it up and make the colors more aesthetically apealing, it would be more useful.

Personally, above all, I much prefer the OSPO anomaly charts that use simple blue/yellow contrasts, which I showed above in a post from yesterday. I will say, in the chart you show (Unisys?), I wish they set the intervals evenly. Having one tick mark begin at -0.5 C on the negative side and +1.0 C on the positive side is a bit disorienting. Just goes to show that there's an untapped demand for artists out there in the science community.

EDIT: I like the chart BFTV has shown. Exactly the kinds of contrasts that are easy on the eyes.

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #477 on: April 04, 2014, 07:21:08 PM »
Ocean heat content from the graphic BFTV posted is 1.60 C. This is the highest since November 2009, which was also the peak of 1.75 C during that cycle. So a continuation of this trend will mean an easy target to beat. I am pretty confident we will achieve at least moderate El Niño status by summer. The models are still pointing towards a strong El Niño by fall (between 1.5 and 2.0 C on the ONI).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #478 on: April 04, 2014, 07:52:53 PM »
Another international news roundup in the last week. El Niño fever is beginning to ascend.

Baltimore Sun, 4/4/2014, El Niño showing signs of further development

Quote
El Niño has shown signs of further development since forecasters issued a watch for the global climate pattern a month ago.

Observations of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures along the equator show warm water being pushed deeper, according to the Weather Underground's Jeff Masters. Forecasts for surface temperature anomalies have grown by half a degree over the past month when looking ahead to the summer and fall months.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, ensemble models of Pacific Ocean temperatures show El Niño starting some time by June.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-el-nio-showing-signs-of-further-development-20140404,0,5693736.story


Airang News, 4/4/2014, El Niño to bring heavy snow to Korea this winter: KMA

Quote
Spring has just arrived in Korea, but weather forecasters here are already looking ahead to next winter and what they see is snow and a lot of it. The Korea Meteorological Administration says the country should brace for heavy snowstorms this winter as El Nino conditions are likely to develop.

http://www.arirang.co.kr/news/News_View.asp?nseq=160325


Queensland Country Life, 4/4/2014, El Niño threat lingers

Quote
Long-term climate outlooks for Queensland provide little hope for drought-breaking rains, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropping in March to its lowest value in four years.

Dr Jeff Sabburg, senior climate liaison officer with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Brisbane, said there was an increased chance of an El Nino event from winter.

"This is often but not always associated with below average rainfall during the second half of the year," Dr Sabburg said.

http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/general/news/el-nino-threat-lingers/2694024.aspx


Michael Ventrice has also posted another guest article to Wunderground, which was brought to my attention from the Baltimore Sun article. Emphasis mine.
Quote
To begin, we are currently observing what looks to be the strongest downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave event since satellite records began in the 1970s. This still needs to be verified in reanalysis, but a large swath of 6°C (11°F) ocean temperature anomalies at a depth of 100 - 200 meters (Figure 1) clearly illustrates the significance of this event.

....

An exceptionally strong atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) is currently propagating across the equatorial Indian Ocean. IMPORTANT: An atmospheric CCKW is DIFFERENT than an oceanic Kelvin wave since atmospheric CCKWs are stratospheric waves in the *atmosphere* that are confined to just the equatorial band. Thus we cannot experience a CCKW passage in North America. CCKWs often couple with thunderstorm activity within the troposphere in the tropics.

The forecast calls for this Indian Ocean CCKW to push across the Date Line during mid-April. This would be a time when we might see another period of westerly winds develop across the equatorial Central Pacific--favorable atmospheric conditions for a full-basin El Niño to emerge. The anticipated westerly wind burst in mid-April may be composed of individual tropical cyclones, or extra-tropical waves intruding the tropics.

In addition to the CCKW itself, there are higher than average probabilities of another developing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to emerge over the West Pacific following the passage of this strong CCKW, in mid-to-late April.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2658

Lots of dry kindling is being tossed on this erupting El Niño bonfire.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #479 on: April 04, 2014, 08:14:33 PM »
Ocean heat content from the graphic BFTV posted is 1.60 C. This is the highest since November 2009, which was also the peak of 1.75 C during that cycle. So a continuation of this trend will mean an easy target to beat. I am pretty confident we will achieve at least moderate El Niño status by summer. The models are still pointing towards a strong El Niño by fall (between 1.5 and 2.0 C on the ONI).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

To add to that, the February to March monthly heat content increase for 180 to 100W was the largest on record at +1.21C, beating the March to April 1983 increase by 0.03C.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #480 on: April 05, 2014, 02:06:15 AM »
First, I love the Dr Michael Ventrice post on the WunderBlog, and I agree that the potential CCKW/MJO interaction could be kindling to the El Nino bonfire.


Second, the following phys. org link includes the following quote; which indicates to me that global warming could accelerate more than expected towards the end of the century:

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-permanent-el-nino-scientists-sayand.html

"There's good news and bad news about future global warming," said Mark Pagani, professor of geology and geophysics at Yale and an author of the research, published April 4 in the journal Science.
"The good news is that global warming does not drive the Pacific Ocean into a permanent El Niño-like condition with all the other regional climate impacts that come with that. The bad news is that the tropics will warm as we continue to add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere—and the recent past was probably much warmer than generally assumed."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #481 on: April 05, 2014, 02:24:42 AM »
The attached Albany U vorticity & wind forecast to April 12 2014 shows that a series of Western Equatorial Pacific tropical disturbances and cyclones will result a new WWB that could set the stage for the possible CCKW/MJO interaction to fuel a series of typhoons and cyclones in the Western Equatorial Pacific :
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #482 on: April 05, 2014, 02:29:54 AM »
The attached SOI for April 5 2014 shows that the 30-day moving average has again become less negative and is now -11.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

ChasingIce

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #483 on: April 05, 2014, 04:42:31 AM »

ChasingIce,
I personally prefer the new version of the unisys map. I find the one you use makes things look cooler than reality by using light blue for average temperatures. Though if yellow is an issue with you, this won't be any better!



My wife says that one is easy to discern too....  I see exactly 2 different colors from average to hot.  Its all yellow or orange, and I cannot tell the difference whatsoever between 0 and +1.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #484 on: April 05, 2014, 04:18:36 PM »
The linked article (with a free access pdf) adds further elaborations on the atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) phenomenon that Dr Michael Ventrice briefly discussed in his April 4th WunderBlog post.  This article clearly links states that an Eastern Pacific El Nino event (as we have now) strengthens a CCKW (as will reach the Eastern Equatorial Pacific by mid-April); and that a strong CCKW strengthens an El Nino by generating WWBs (as was observed to occur during the 1997-98 El Nino).  We should all be aware that this weather-climate interaction will certainly happen this year, but is not currently considered in the NOAA forecasts.  This is one more piece of evidence supporting my belief that the Nino3.4 index could equal or exceed a value of +2.0 by the end of August:

Wang Hui, Pan Yutong, Kumar Arun, et al., (2012), "Modulation of convectively coupled Kelvin wave activity in the tropical Pacific by ENSO", Acta Meteor. Sinica, 27, doi: 10.1007/s13351-013-0306-5.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEIQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmsjournal.net%2Fqxxb_en%2Fch%2Freader%2Fcreate_pdf.aspx%3Ffile_no%3D20140166%26year_id%3D2013%26quarter_id%3D3%26falg%3D1&ei=HQtAU-e7Laau4ATKooDACA&usg=AFQjCNH0P3OWWlZlu__7AvjSQPCpxuHZRQ&bvm=bv.64125504,d.bGE

Abstract: "The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the Kelvin wave activity in the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño, and La Niña years, respectively, to 30-yr (1982–2011) mean statistics. The convectively coupled Kelvin waves in this study are represented by the two leading modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of 2–25 day band-pass filtered daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), with the estimated zonal wavenumber of 3 or 4, period of 8 days, and eastward propagating speed of about 17 m s-150 . The most significant impact of ENSO on the Kelvin wave activity is the intensification of the Kelvin waves during the EP El Niños.  The impact of La Niña on the reduction of the Kelvin wave intensity is relatively weaker, reflecting the nonlinearity of tropical deep convection and the associated Kelvin waves in response to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The impact of the CP El Niño on the Kelvin waves is less significant due to relatively weaker SST anomalies and smaller spatial coverage. ENSO may also alter the frequency, wavelength, and phase speed of the Kelvin waves. This work demonstrates that low-frequency ENSO SST anomalies modulate high-frequency tropical disturbances, an example of weather–climate linkage."

Extract/Conclusion:  "On the other hand, the Kelvin wave may not only respond but also feedback to the SST anomalies. For example, surface westerly wind bursts are known to play an important
role in triggering the 1997/98 El Nino (McPhaden, 427 1999). Strong surface westerly wind anomalies do exist following the anomalous deep convection associated with the Kelvin waves (e.g., Straub and Kiladis, 2002; Wang and Fu, 2007). How the wind anomalies associated with the Kelvin waves might affect SST could be an interesting topic for future work."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #485 on: April 05, 2014, 04:35:44 PM »
The first link provides information related to both CCKWs (also called convectively coupled equatorial waves, or CCEWs), and MJOs and both of their influences on WWBs.  This discussion makes it eminently clear how a CCKW arriving in mid-April, followed by a MJO arriving in late-April, to the Eastern Equatorial Pacific would clearly fuel a rash of tropical storms/cyclones that would generate WWBs that would likely kick our current weak El Nino into at least a moderate category:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/equatorial-wave-background/equatorial-wave-theory/

The second link clearly shows that the Nino3.4 is above +0.5 as of April 5 and should continue to rise through June:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/

The third link (and attached image) clearly should one forecast of the MJO arriving in the Eastern Tropical Pacific by late April:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #486 on: April 05, 2014, 04:39:42 PM »
For clarity, I decided to provide the Kyle MacRitchie SST indices graph (updated on April 5 2014) from the second link in my prior post.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #487 on: April 06, 2014, 03:12:59 AM »
The following is a brief summary of selected key reasons/reasoning that support the case that a Super El Nino (with a Nino3.4 of between +2.0 and +3.0) is likely to peak sometime between November 2014 & February 2015:

Short-term considerations (as of April 5 2014):
•   The following link confirms that for the week ending April 5, the weekly Nino3.4 is now above the threshold value of +0.5 for a provisional weak El Nino, and that ensemble models project this index value will continue to increase at least until though summer (austral winter), see the first attached image of the POAMA monthly mean Nino34 forecast issued on April 3 2014.  This is important because the development of an El Nino condition (even if provisional/weak) supports the development of positive feedback mechanisms, and the feedback mechanisms are starting about two to three weeks earlier in 2014 than in 1997:
http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/
•   The SOI influence is currently providing positive feedback by suppressing the Equatorial Pacific trade winds, even though it is still fluctuating and has a value of -10.5 on April 5 2014 (Sydney Time), see the second attached image.
•   Currently, the Western Equatorial Pacific is exhibiting above average convective conditions that are supporting the current (and near-term) development of tropical/depressions/storms/cyclones that are contributing to WWBs in the Western Equatorial Pacific.
•   Dr Michael Ventrice states in the following link: "An exceptionally strong atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) is currently propagating across the equatorial Indian Ocean. … The forecast calls for this Indian Ocean CCKW to push across the Date Line during mid-April. This would be a time when we might see another period of westerly winds develop across the equatorial Central Pacific--favorable atmospheric conditions for a full-basin El Niño to emerge. The anticipated westerly wind burst in mid-April may be composed of individual tropical cyclones, or extra-tropical waves intruding the tropics.

In addition to the CCKW itself, there are higher than average probabilities of another developing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to emerge over the West Pacific following the passage of this strong CCKW, in mid-to-late April. …. Once the CCKW passes across Africa to over the Indian Ocean, we often observe a developing MJO event over the Indian Ocean that then propagates eastward across the Pacific region thereafter. There are increased chances of a similar scenario to play out over the next few weeks."" Also, see the attached third image of the CCKW in the Indian Ocean as of April 2nd (updated daily).  Also, note that a MJO event near the data line is even more effective at generating conditions that support WWBs below MJOs travel more slowly than CCKWs.  Also, note that a similar condition in 1997 lead to strong WWBs that rapidly strengthened that developing El Nino.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2658

•   Professor Roundy of the Albany University, NY, has estimated that if El Nino conditions are established (note that even though the Nino3.4 index is above +0.5, a full El Nino condition has not yet been established as the Walker Cell has not flipped states yet; however, there are preliminary indications that it could flip before the end of April), then there will be about an 80% chance of a strong El Nino this year.
•   A coastal-trapped Kelvin wave, CTW, has been observed off the coast of Peru; which means that the typical cold water input from the Humboldt Current into the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, is currently below normal.
•   The current Equatorial Kelvin Wave, EKW, is the largest/strongest ever observed during the modern era and it has reached South America and is in the process of surfacing.
•   The cloud cover near the equatorial date line is fluctuating about a relatively high level, which increases the chances that the Walker Cell could flip to an El Nino condition sooner, rather than later.
•   Both the Nino 3 + 4 indices are relatively high for this time of year.
•   The Equatorial Pacific thermocline is well into the process of changing to an El Nino condition.

Long-term considerations:
•   Both the PDO, and the IPO, indices are positive and are trending to more positive values.
•   Super Typhoons are more likely to occur (resulting in more numerous events) during a strong El Nino event because in El Nino years the storm tracks occur closer to the equator and farther eastward (than during neutral or La Nina conditions), and thus the storms have more opportunity to reach higher intensities as they travel longer distances over the warm tropical ocean, while curving northward towards high targets with high economic value in Japan, Korea and Northern China.
•   Due to the more southeasterly locations for the locations of genesis of typhoons during strong El Nino conditions; the westerly wind bursts, WWBs, associated with these geneses provide a strong positive feedback to strength the El Nino event.
•   The closer that we get to the peak typhoon (tropical cyclone/storm) activity season (July-October), the more likely we are to get positive WWB feedback from tropical storms for strengthening the current fledgling El Nino; which is one of the reasons (together with the projected coming of the MJO in the Pacific) that I am concerned about a major typhoon occurring in April (similar to Super Typhoon Isa) that could kick our current El Nino into a trend leading to the Super category.
•   Both the WWV (warm water volume) and the volume of warm water in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are at historical highs for the satellite era.
•   The forecasts indicate the possibility of a positive IOD later this Fall (austral Spring); which could boost a moderate El Nino into a Super category.

Theoretical considerations:
•   It has been estimated that strong El Ninos will be (have become) more frequent with increasing global warming, and global warming has continued unabated since the last Super El Nino in 1997-98.
•   ENSO is a chaotic cyclic phenomena with strange attractors (that the ensemble models cannot fully represent), and historically Eastern Pacific Super El Ninos roughly occur every 15 to 25 years.
•   The following linked reference confirms that most current ENSO projection models treat westerly wind bursts, WWBs, as random (stochastic) forcing events; however, particularly for strong El Nino events this paper indicates that there is a SST-WWB feedback loop where a strong Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW, creates more WWBs than normal which then strengthens the EKW (as we have seen this year).  Furthermore, WWB's are most likely during the period from November through to April; and therefore, April may well experience an increase in the number and severity of tropical storms (and possibly typhoons), that together with the CCKW that is projected to reach the date line by mid-April and the MJO that is projected to reach the Central Equatorial Pacific by late April (or possibly not); these timing considerations could kick the current fledgling El Nino event into high gear:

Geoffrey Gebbie • Eli Tziperman, (2008), "Incorporating a semi-stochastic model of ocean-modulated westerly wind bursts into an ENSO prediction model", Theor Appl Climatol., DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0069-6

https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=100084&pt=2&p=119089

•   El Nino events are typically more severe than are La Nina events, which is called ENSO Asymmetry, and as the linked reference cites, the current CMIP5 models cannot capture this fact, and thus and ensemble El Nino strength projection must be somewhat underestimating the possible future El Nino strength, most likely because these models cannot properly account for full atmospheric positive reinforcing such as from WWBs:

Tao Zhang and De-Zheng Sun (2014), "ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP5 Models", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1

Key extract: "The study suggests that the underestimate of ENSO asymmetry in the CMIP5 coupled models is at least in part of atmospheric origin."

•   Sherwood et al 2014 state that the influence of convective mixing (down-drafting) dehydrates the cloud cover near the equator both north of 5N and south of 5S, increases with increasing humidity (see also Reply #161), thus as a Super El Nino will clearly increase the humid boundary layer along the Equatorial Pacific; it is probable that a Super El Nino will result in greater solar irradiance near the Equatorial Pacific, both north of 5N and south of 5S; which should result in more atmospheric convection that could contribute to WWBs.

Considerations related to "process-based" El Nino model projections:
•   Current process-based El Nino computer model projections, are probably incapable of projecting Nino3.4 ensemble mean values greater than +2.0; and thus are incapable of projecting Super El Ninos (primarily due to ensemble models cannot currently adequately forecast WWBs and other positive atmospheric input, and thus underestimate both the timing and the strength of El Ninos).
•   "Official" El Nino projections are typically out-of-date and do not represent the most current information available.
•   Process-based projections tend to be "Frequentist" rather than "Bayesianist" thus they typically have trouble projecting "fat-tailed" events (such as Super El Ninos).
•   Frequently users of process-based projections prefer to ignore all the caveats and uncertainties (& confidence levels) associated with these projections, and to assume that they are entitled to stationary rather than non-stationary conditions.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2014, 03:18:07 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #488 on: April 06, 2014, 03:33:25 AM »
Cyclocane has issued the following tropical storm forecast valid through end of today, and the first attached image (associated with this forecast) shows the location of TS 05W (Peipah) and TC 23P (Twentythree) (this image also shows the location of the CCKW heading east out of the Equatorial Indian Ocean):

Forecast:
"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 050000Z, TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WAS LOCATED NEAR
4.3N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 041800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 687 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS."

The second image is of the earth surface wind map for April 5 2014, clearly showing the current locations of Tropical Storm Peipah and Tropical Cyclone Twentythree.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #489 on: April 06, 2014, 03:38:49 AM »
The attached satellite image of the Western Pacific on April 6 2014 clearly shows: (a) TS 05W (Peipah), (b) TC 23P (Twentythree); and (c) the increasing cloud cover near the Equatorial Date Line.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #490 on: April 06, 2014, 03:58:36 AM »
The following linked article from Reporting Climate Science for April 4 2014, indicates that: "Recent research results show that an atmospheric hole over the tropical West Pacific is reinforcing ozone depletion in the polar regions and could have a significant influence on the climate of the Earth."  I wonder how the ENSO influences this phenomena.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/researchers-find-new-phenomenon-in-atmosphere.html
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #491 on: April 06, 2014, 12:09:38 PM »
Quite a change in little over 2 months



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #492 on: April 06, 2014, 12:28:05 PM »
7 out of 8 of the recent models in blue are heading to over 2!



Only 2 models not reaching +1

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #493 on: April 06, 2014, 01:48:06 PM »
While the latest CFSv2 Nino3.4 forecast (on April 6 2014) that crandles just posted may seem very bullish for a Super El Nino by the end of 2014, for the months of April & May even the blue lines in the CFSv2 Nino3.4 forecast are not to dynamic, and thus it probably does not fully take into account the probable arrival of the CCKW by mid-April and the likely arrival of the MJO by late April (or the beginning of May), near the Date Line.

The first attached image by Albany U vorticity & wind forecast to April 13 2014, shows an increasing development of WWBs in the Western Equatorial Pacific.

The second attached image form the Cyclocane main forecast map issued on April 6 2014, shows both TS 05W and TC 23P intensifying in the coming days.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #494 on: April 06, 2014, 03:23:12 PM »
ASLR, as you surely have noted there is also a minor likelihood for another TC to develop in the GFS extended forecast +180 hours. that would almost for sure increase the WWB.. ECMWF is hinting the possibility of another TC in WPAC around that time. But TC forecasts that far in time are always very tricky. I must say that I was disappointed about how bad Peipah evolved. I would have thought it to become at least a strong tropical storm but I'm glad for the people there who doesn't have to face another destructive hurricane just 4 months after Haiyan...

It will be very interesting to see tomorrows update from NOAA as well as BoMs update at tuesday! The big questions then are if:

1) how has the extremely warm pool of water eveolved in the Pacific?

2) have the pool climbed closer to the surface?

3) what are the Niño-indexes?

4) what are the different forecast models saying now compared to last month?

5) What are the other indexes like SOI, OLR etc looking?

And, of course we'll also look closely if there are any more hints of more TC's in WPAC :)

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #495 on: April 06, 2014, 07:29:15 PM »
Lord Vader,

It is good to note that the GFS extended forecast +180 hours closely matches the Albany U. +180 hour forecast for April 13 that I posted in Reply #493, that another TS will occur to contribute to meaningful WWBs in that timeframe.  Personally, it is my opinion that the CCKW will generate a number of medium intensity TS/TC events between April 13 and circa April 20; and then if/when the MJO enters the Western Equatorial Pacific we may see larger cyclones between April 20 and May 20, that could conceivably grow as large as Super Typhoon Isa in April of 1997 that kicked that El Nino on a path to exceeding a Nino3.4 value of +2.0 during August of 1997.

Furthermore, I would like to note that when talking about "new and improved" GCM projections that indicate that the frequency of major (super) El Ninos will increase with increasing global warming, the following linked article by Tollefson (January 2014) makes the following key statement:
"… in simulations with full climate models, which factor in the suite of atmospheric and oceanic interactions beyond the equatorial Pacific.  These tend to reveal a trend towards more El Niño-like conditions as a result of global warming. The difference seems to lie, in part, in how warming influences evaporation in areas of the Pacific, according to Trenberth. He says the models suggest that global warming has a greater impact on temperatures in the relatively cool east, because the increase in evaporation adds water vapour to the atmosphere there and enhances atmospheric warming; this effect is weaker in the warmer western Pacific, where the air is already saturated with moisture."

Jeff Tollefson; (2014)"Climate change: The case of the missing heat - Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation", Nature, Volume: 505, Pages: 276–278, Date published: (16 January 2014), doi:10.1038/505276a

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525

Clearly, an increase in evaporation in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific would contribute to an increased probability of a strongly negative SOI as we have seen for the past month; which then suppresses the trade winds and increases the probability of El Nino events, which further increase evaporation in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific thus providing more fuel to grow a major (super) El Nino event.

Also, in a follow-up article (see reference and link below), Tollefson (April 2014); points out the El Nino forecasters are still struggling to update their models in order to better incorporate the physics of a chaotic global ENSO phenomena with strange attractors (which requires very powerful computers and incremental improvements to software based on field observations):

Jeff Tollefson, (2014), "El Niño tests forecasters - As hints emerge of a major weather event this year, poor data could thwart attempts to improve predictions", Nature; Volume: 508, Pages: 20–21, Date published: (03 April 2014), doi:10.1038/508020a

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972

A key extract from the Tollefson (April 2014) article indicates that by July our current ensemble mean projections will give better results, but until then, the influence of factors such as the CCKW and the MJO currently in the Indian Ocean will be left out of the ensemble mean forecasts: "El Niño often emerges during the Northern Hemisphere summer and peaks around December; forecast models can do a reasonable job of predicting its eventual strength by July, when the changes in ocean circulation that give rise to the weather pattern have become pronounced. But scientists are working feverishly to provide earlier forecasts, to allow govern¬ments more time to prepare for potentially devastating weather patterns."

We should not forget that both CCKW and MJO are atmospheric equatorial waves that propagate around the world in 30 to 60 days, and thus they may (or they may not) survive long enough to periodically pump more energy into our current EKW.  Furthermore, we should not forget that the current EKW is presently generating oceanic Rossby waves near the coast of South America that will travel back to the Western Equatorial Pacific over the next approximately 6 months; which should provide one more guaranteed kick of energy into our current EKW around the November to December timeframe that might (or might not) push our current El Nino (if it sustains itself) over the Nino3.4 index value of +3.0 into what I consider to be a "Monster" El Nino category.  Again we will all need to wait and see what happens as the year progresses.

Best Regards,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #496 on: April 06, 2014, 07:57:27 PM »
While I am not a meteorologist, to me the attached image (from the linked website) of atmospheric tropical wave, and associate atmospheric convection analysis, maps issued on April 6th (with what I believe are hind castes for April 5th), indicate that the CCKW (Kelvin wave) has now left the Indian Ocean and is headed eastward, and that the MJO will soon follow (at a slower rate).  Furthermore, I take the "Low Pass" analysis to indicate that WWBs are coming soon to the Western Equatorial Pacific (supporting the GFS +180 hr, and the Albany U +180 hr, tropical storm forecasts).  With regard to the figure, blue indicates more convection and red indicates less convection.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php
« Last Edit: April 06, 2014, 08:02:50 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #497 on: April 07, 2014, 02:42:07 AM »
The attached image gives the 30-day moving average SOI value issued on April 7 2014, which is: -9.7.  While this value indicates that the atmosphere is still providing reinforcement to create a sustainable El Nino condition; however, at the rate that it has been changing for the past couple of days, it is possible that it might reach a neutral condition in 2 to 3 days (or not).  Furthermore, the cloud cover around the Equatorial Date Line has recently decreased.  All of this implies that the trade winds are trying to re-establish themselves, and we will need to see whether any possible WWBs change this situation.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #498 on: April 07, 2014, 03:51:27 AM »
The attached image gives the 30-day moving average SOI value issued on April 7 2014, which is: -9.7.  While this value indicates that the atmosphere is still providing reinforcement to create a sustainable El Nino condition; however, at the rate that it has been changing for the past couple of days, it is possible that it might reach a neutral condition in 2 to 3 days (or not).  Furthermore, the cloud cover around the Equatorial Date Line has recently decreased.  All of this implies that the trade winds are trying to re-establish themselves, and we will need to see whether any possible WWBs change this situation.

I have been watching the SOI a great deal as of late and have noticed its quite fickle this time of year. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #499 on: April 07, 2014, 12:34:55 PM »
ChasingIce,

Clearly issues like the fickle nature of the SOI this time of year contribute to the Spring Barrier for forecasting.

However, while long-range weather forecasts are also quite fickle; nevertheless: (a) the first image of the University of Albany 174-hr vorticity & wind forecast for April 14 2014, shows a growing WWB (presumably due to the arrival of the CCKW); (b) the second, third and four images show the WunderMap forecasts for April 15, 16 and 17, respectively; all showing increasing amount of disturbed air (convective activity), presumably as the CCKW continues eastward and as the possible MJO approaches.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson