Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2014 El Nino?  (Read 809944 times)

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1450 on: August 08, 2014, 07:26:47 AM »
First I would like to note that I'm fully aware of the other forecasts currently being made by other sources, but Mark makes a good point and suggests another possibility. The following is an excerpt from STORMSURF.COM, of the MJO/ENSO update for Aug 7, 2014; by MARK SPONSLER:

“...And finally, there's the 'feedback loop' consideration.  We suspect it might already be in-play. The largest argument in favor of that is the total breakdown of the Gulf of Alaska high pressure system, resulting in very high water temps off California. Also the early season recurving of multiple tropical low pressure systems tracking northeast off Japan bound for the dateline. And now the sudden pulse of tropical activity, in the East, Central and West Pacific, especially the hurricane pattern currently developing near Hawaii, is most telling. The only argument against the feedback loop is the development of a west moving Pacific Counter Current, a dissipating Kelvin Wave and the degradation of peak water temps in the Ecuador triangle. But all these could easily just be symptoms of the upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle. Only once the ocean and atmosphere are coupled on a global level (that is, the ocean has imparted enough heat into the atmosphere to start changing the global jetstream pattern) can one begin to have confidence that a feedback loop is developing and a fully matured El Nino can result. About 3 months of undisturbed heating is required for the atmosphere to start responding on a global level where the point of 'no return' could be achieved. The warm pool starting forming in earnest on 5/1, and so the atmosphere would not trip over the 'no-return' point till 8/1. We have reach that threshold. Assuming current cooling of the equatorial Pacific is temporary and associated with the upwelling Kelvin Wave phase, then one can conclude the ocean and atmosphere are now linked/teleconnected.  Considering the size and duration of the westerly wind bursts in Jan-April, it seem hard to believe that some global level 'change' is not already well entrenched, and has been developing since perhaps as early and Oct of 2013 (when the first Kelvin Wave of the series started taking shape). Monitoring the number, location and track of tropical systems in the North Pacific over the next few weeks will help to sort things out, as will monitoring westerly wind anomalies and warm subsurface water buildup in and under the Kelvin Wave Generation area. Also monitoring of the NPac jetstream (which remain unimpressive at this time). But at this time odds are stacking in favor of a global teleconnection now being established. If that's true, deepening of the ENSO cycle could begin in the next month or so, and perhaps rapidly once it starts.”  

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1451 on: August 08, 2014, 04:22:01 PM »
bigB,

Thanks for Mark's excellent write-up on the growing linkage between the atmosphere and the ocean, and I agree with all that he says.  To his points I would like to add that we are likely entering a positive IPO/PDO phase and that the North Pacific Ocean temperatures have been projected by the CMIP5 models to come in to synchronicity with the warm North Atlantic beginning about now (for the next 25 years).  Lastly, I would like to note (again) that all of the hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere Pacific (see the attached image of the earth surface wind map for 8/8/14) is carrying a large amount of tropic energy north to warm the North Pacific.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 626
  • Likes Given: 242
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1452 on: August 08, 2014, 09:12:25 PM »
10,000 year history of ENSO from mollusc shells.

Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific

Understanding the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming requires quantitative data on ENSO under different climate regimes. Here, we present a reconstruction of ENSO in the eastern tropical Pacific spanning the last 10 thousand years (ka) derived from oxygen isotopes in fossil mollusk shells from Peru. We find that ENSO variance was close to the modern level in the early Holocene and severely damped ~4-5 ka. In addition, ENSO variability was skewed toward cold events along coastal Peru 6.7-7.5 ka owing to a shift of warm anomalies toward the Central Pacific. The modern ENSO regime was established ~3-4.5 ka. We conclude that ENSO was sensitive to changes in climate boundary conditions during the Holocene, including, but not limited to insolation.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/08/06/science.1252220

Overview from phys.org
http://phys.org/news/2014-08-clam-fossils-year-history-el.html
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1453 on: August 08, 2014, 09:25:13 PM »
The first attached image is of the the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 8th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up -2.79, the 30 day avg  was down at -6.13, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at +0.00. The 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral. However, as mentioned in the excerpt from Mark Sponsler, Ocean Atmosphere coupling may be coming into play. Making its presence undeniably known in the next 4-6 weeks. According to GFS models for SLP/precip at Darwin and Tahiti, negative to near dead neutral(values near 0.00) daily SOI values will continue for the next several days. From August 10-12, strong negative daily values will be leaving the 30 day avg while it appears only weak negative or near dead neutral values will be entering. This should cause the SOI 30 day avg to rise(become less negative) during this time period. Then(August 13), it appears the 30 day avg will stabilize or possible start slowly dropping again.

The second attached image from the NHC of the latest visible satellite imagery, shows a Iselle in a weakened state. Torn up by the big island of Hawaii as expected. Just when it looked like Iselle may be the first hurricane to make landfall on the big island of Hawaii, she ended up losing her hurricane status(75 mph), making landfall at 2:30 am HST as a strong tropical storm with max sustained winds of 60 mph. Still rare and going down in record books as only the second topical storm to ever make landfall on the big island of Hawaii. Also, of note is the total ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy so far the 2014 Eastern/Central pacific hurricane season, which is currently in the low 80's and is likely to be in the upper 80's by tonight or tomorrow. This is extremely significant in that it suggests this season is well above avg so far. I've been closely watching ACE values for the Eastern/Central pacific hurricane season since 2009. From 2009 until present, I've never seen the ACE values this high in early August. This is about the time(August) when the Eastern/Central pacific hurricane season peaks(2-4 weeks earlier than the Atlantic) and usually about 45-55% of the seasons total ACE. At this rate, the season could end up with a total ace of roughly 150-170. Very rare and very possible given the current conditions. We should have a few more cycles/packets of cyclone activity before the season ends in late November.

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1454 on: August 08, 2014, 09:26:12 PM »
From the phys.org article:

Quote
The charts created by the research team suggest that the ENSO cycle does not have a predictable cycle and also that it has not been increasing in strength over the course of the Holocene as others have suggested. They did find some patterns, however. During a period approximately 4,000 to 5,000 years ago, for example, the ENSO was relatively weak, and during another period, from 6,700 to 7,500 years ago, ocean temperatures along the coast of Peru appeared to have been skewed by the location of warm water from an El Niño (when trade winds push warm water into the Eastern Pacific.)

ENSO. Ever a chaotic phenomenon. Thanks for sharing the study, this is very fascinating, as paleontology always is. Hope to see a PDF somewhere soon.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1455 on: August 09, 2014, 01:47:26 AM »
The plot is not out yet but according to the data below issued by the BoM on August 9 2014, the 30-day moving average SOI is -6.0 (and thus is still neutral):

20140709,20140807,-6.0

Here is the plot:
« Last Edit: August 09, 2014, 04:58:39 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1456 on: August 09, 2014, 04:11:52 AM »
The attached image of TAO plots for 5 day heat content and wind means/anomalies, shows the approximate location of our big Kelvin wave from earlier in the year(top plots from March 30, 2014) and the approximate location of our current new Kelvin wave(bottom plots from August 7, 2014). Please Note: I would've liked to have used plots from earlier in March to better show what the big Kelvin wave looked like when it was in roughly the same location as our currently developing new Kelvin wave, but the TAO subsurface sensors had not yet been repaired and data was missing from half the plot prior to March 30. The current Kelvin wave may not be as large or as strong, but it doesn’t appear that it needs to be. Just +1.5 or +2.0 more deg c above normal should do the trick(at least for a weak El Nino). It will likely gain some strength as it continues propagating east. According to other surface and subsurface data from the TAO array, SSTA are filling back in and the cool pool from the upwelling Kelvin wave cycle is now in decline. Heat content anomalies appear to have bottomed out as mentioned by ASLR a few posts back. Weak easterly anomalies are forecast to take over in the Western Pacific, while neutral anomalies are forecast to be in control over Central/Eastern Pacific during the next 1-2 weeks. That would be according to forecast models, so it may or may not actually occur. We will need to monitor things closely over the next 1-2 weeks. Also, as ASLR mentioned, the recent tropical activity(4 major hurricanes in the last two weeks, Halong, Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio) has carried or is carrying a lot of heat into the higher latitudes of the North Pacific. The recent tropical activity is helping to impart much needed heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, if one is hoping for the development of a feedback loop and  El Nino. Just looking at any of the number of SSTA images(see second attached image from the EMC/MMAB of the latest RTG SSTA image updated August 8 ), one can see that the North Pacific is full of heat. That heat has to go somewhere.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2014, 06:57:50 AM by bigB »

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1333
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1457 on: August 09, 2014, 06:40:15 PM »




Seems like the current weak-moderate WWB will persist for maybe a month from now according to NOAA. This should clearly enhance the odds for El Niño later this fall. Should also put the odds higher for record warm october-december month to occur given the huge kelvin wave's impact earlier this year.

Finally, I'm not too convinced that a developing El Niño this year will be replaced by a La Niña which usually is the case but rather believe that we'll see a "double-up" next year with a stronger El Niño by the end of 2015 than eventually will be seen this year... Just like 1986-1988 El Niño which as far as I'm aware of is the only case in the modern era that have been a "double-up"..

Does anyone have the values for PDO? Are we surely to see a switch to a positive PDO now?

//LMV

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1458 on: August 09, 2014, 09:52:25 PM »
The first attached image is of the the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 9th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -4.37, the 30 day avg was up just slightly at -6.11, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -0.31. The 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral, but the negative side of neutral. The 30 day avg is expected to rise(become less negative) for the next 3 days(August 10th-12th). Then by August 13th through possibly the 15th, the 30 day avg should stabilize. However, by August 16th, moderately positive daily SOI values may possibly come into play. This would be due to the supposed return of a more unfavorable SLP/precip pattern at Darwin and Tahiti, possibly linked to a very weak inactive phase of the MJO and the weak easterly anomalies that are forecast to be in control of (most) the Western Pacific and Kelvin wave generation area (130E-170W) over the next 1-2 weeks. Anywhere between neutral to weak westerly zonal wind anomalies(0 to +4 M/S) are still forecast to be in control of the Central/Eastern Pacific during the next 1-2 weeks(SIDE NOTE: considering current observations and multiple other surface and 850 hPa Zonal wind forecast models, the CFSv2 may be just a tad bit bullish, but its also very possible that its not. Its just hard to tell the exact strength as the measurements for anomalies go up from +2 M/S to +6 M/S to +10 M/S). Regardless, collapsed trades/weak westerly anomalies(which looks most likely at this time) across the Central/Eastern Equatorial Pacific will help add heat to the new Kelvin wave as it propagates east. Also, it will help push/pile up warm surface water and stop cool upwelling in that region. better yet, maybe cause the ECC to flip back into an El Nino configuration, which already appears to be the case(see 2nd attachment of the OSCAR 5 day plot for ocean surface currents, which compares ocean current anomalies from July 22 and Aug 6). The OSCAR ocean surface current plots have finally come back online after being offline for 2 weeks. Things may be changing very soon here! Like Mark Sponsler said, "...at this time odds are stacking in favor of a global teleconnection now being established. If that's true, deepening of the ENSO cycle could begin in the next month or so, and perhaps rapidly once it starts.” 

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1459 on: August 09, 2014, 10:26:01 PM »
Attached is the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) hovmoller plot of the last 30 day analyses and the 7 day forecast for zonal wind anomalies, updated Aug 9, which shows weak easterly anomalies taking over the Western Pacific while neutral to very weak westerly anomalies take control of the Central/Eastern Pacific. At least through Aug 16.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1460 on: August 10, 2014, 01:54:56 AM »
According to the following data issued August 10 2014 (Sydney time), the BoM 30-day moving average SOI value has drifted up to -5.5 (and thus is still neutral)"

20140710,20140808,-5.5
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 897
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1461 on: August 10, 2014, 11:30:10 AM »

Finally, I'm not too convinced that a developing El Niño this year will be replaced by a La Niña which usually is the case but rather believe that we'll see a "double-up" next year with a stronger El Niño by the end of 2015 than eventually will be seen this year... Just like 1986-1988 El Niño which as far as I'm aware of is the only case in the modern era that have been a "double-up"..

Does anyone have the values for PDO? Are we surely to see a switch to a positive PDO now?

//LMV

I've been wondering about this 'double whammy' too? Over the past few years we have seen failed nino's and a very short but potent 9 month event. The impact of the anomalous trades seems to swamp the initial Nino by overpowering atmospheric synch?

We see a forecast for a Nino and then the beginnings but then it fades? Should we keep some momentum going with the current event then maybe we will see it reinforced by another large KW event early next year ( like with all the others but this time over the top of a weak Nino?)

At present I'm thinking that the calls for a 'super Nino' was a recognition that only a very powerful event could hope to over turn the enhanced trades and bring about ocean/atmospheric cooperation?

As far as PDO is concerned? I'm quite tired with battling with Denialists/misleaders who demand that PDO-ve began in 08'. PDO is now impacted ( since the 80's I'd read in a paper some time ago) by AGW so the workings are not easily compared to past, pre AGW impact, cycles. Overall warming means less deep cool values ,more neutral values and more warm values.

 As such the minor positive in the mid noughties may , in the past, have been merely neutral values amidst the negative values. Traditionally the 'phase' of PDO is only ever called (with any certainty) after it has ended and I think it quite obvious that we will see 98' as the start date for the negative phase? This would mean that we could flip back positive at any time having served the 'average' time under PDO-ve ( esp. if the AGW impacts foreshorten the negative phase by raising the temps of any 'lead in and 'lead out').

We also have the I.P.O. ( interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) in its negative phase (taking warmth down deep as opposed to keeping warmth at the surface) and it may also be close to a flip back to surface warming?

 The latest Paper on the reasons for the enhanced Trades also hints at this response ( to a warmed Atlantic) soon reaching parity with the Pacific and so the strengthened Walker cell (driving the cooling of the east Pacific) will also fade back to more 'normal' values dropping the trades back down to 'normal' workings? Should we see this occur what would happen to the warm pool in the west Pacific? Would it not slosh back east bringing a huge nino like event ( and reducing Sea levels around the West Pacific from their currently enhanced values?)

To me these represent a a lot of 'natural forcings' about to flip to their 'augmenting AGW atmospheric warming' ? t might be that all we need is the appearance of a large Nino to see atmospheric cooperation end this phase of enhanced trades and so flip IPO positive which will , in its turn, flip PDO fully positive. Should this occur we would see a 'Nino like' surge in global temps only that this surge will remain and not fade back into the 'average'.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2014, 11:47:12 AM by Gray-Wolf »
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1462 on: August 10, 2014, 09:04:20 PM »
The first attached image is of the the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 10th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -8.44, the 30 day avg was up just slightly at -5.69, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -0.55. The 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral, but the negative side of neutral. Of Note: it appears that a majority of the forecast models are beginning to back off on the strength and coverage of the inactive(suppressed convection) phase of the MJO/easterly anomalies supposedly over the Maritime continents and Western Pacific. This is good.

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 900
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1463 on: August 11, 2014, 12:55:37 AM »
PDO is a lot of speculation really.  The fact that the last decade has shown a walker circulation much stronger than any time in the instrumental record shows that we are not seeing a simple repeat of the last cool PDO oscilation, so insisting that the PDO should run to any specific timeframe as a regular cycle seems foolish to me.  Why can't we have douple-dip warm or cool phases with PDO, just as we can with ENSO.  Or aborted phases that start to develop but then suddenly collapse and revert to neutral?

One paper does suggest the enhanced trade winds are a response to Atlantic changes, and perhaps this could fade out again as equilibrium is achieved.  I would never put certainty on just one paper but wait until some type of consensus emerges before being certain.  Speculation however is fun.

I have a pet theory that I've seen at least a few scientists have speculated on.  The surface waters are warmed faster than the deep waters.  The surface waters are blown to the west Pacific and deep waters upwell in the east.  This means the temperature difference becomes greater and the climate becomes more La Nina like while it is warming up.

On the other hand global warming is expected to widen the tropic region, resulting in a weaker pressure gradient driving the trade winds, which would result in a more El Nino like climate.  It might be a question of which effect is stronger. 


Edit:  And while on the subject of speculation and longer term cycles, the wikipedia article on ENSO mentions a 10-12 year cycle.  I haven't been able to find much else on this, but if you look at ENSO history, its not hard to imagine a cool phase 2008-2012, warm phase 2002-2007, cool phase 1996-2001, and a warm phase 1990-1995.  That would suggest we are due for 5 or 6 years of a warm phase.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2014, 01:26:46 AM by Michael Hauber »
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1464 on: August 11, 2014, 04:24:40 AM »
Chaotic oscillations of the ENSO (combined with climate change)  take some patience to detect a new trend.  Nevertheless, I do believe that we are headed for a period of more frequent and somewhat stronger El Ninos.

In the way of the daily chaotic pattern of the SOI, the attached BoM 30-day moving average issued August 11 2014 (Sydney Time) has drifted up to -5.0 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1465 on: August 11, 2014, 06:12:44 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated August 10, 2014. Skip to 8:45 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.



Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 897
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 342
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1466 on: August 11, 2014, 11:52:14 AM »
Whilst we're still waiting for the next KW to push east I'll continue with this 'what next' discussion....

I've always found it useful, in my imaginings of climate, to adopt a very 'Lovelokian' approach where the planet will do its damnedest to remain in one quasi stable climate state until the forcings have proved too great and it then flips up , or down, to the next stable climate state? (kind of like a shock absorber taking up the worst of the roads oscillations?)

If there is any merit in looking at the climate system in this way then it becomes apparent that behaviours, like the anomalous trades, are a last,best, effort to keep climate in it's current 'quasi stable state'? The 'cooling' it provides offsets the general warming but it is not a permanent 'fix' and should the forcing continue there comes a point where the Planet 'lets go' and we step up to the next 'quasi stable state' over a matter of years.

A large, and long Nino event would provide the perfect platform for such a step to now take place. The warm waters would settle the trades and allow both PDO/IPO to flip positive, Antarctic sea ice , in part, would continue the downward trend we saw from the 50's to the early 80's (20% loss) and the Arctic would go ice free.

Temps would not relax back from the Nino peak as the energy imbalance would no longer be being gobbled up by the deep Oceans and the albedo flip across the Arctic ( plus ocean warming) would place even more energy into the climate system.

To my mind we are now only waiting for that large Nino event to allow this 'step change' to take place. The early noughties MetO model showed a period of slow atmospheric temp gains until the middle of this decade where temps then began warming faster than the 80'/90's peak values. This would seem to fit with this 'step change' up to the next stable state?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1467 on: August 11, 2014, 04:05:57 PM »
While the behavior discussed in the linked reference has been discussed several times in this thread, it is still worth noting that the ENSO has an interannual influence on SLR (see the attached two figures, the first from Aviso showing a measured average rate of SLR of about 3.26 mm/yr since 1992, and the second from Colorado University of the de-trended global mean sea level vs the MEI); which when de-trended leads to a rate of SLR of about 3.3 mm per year since 1992.  By eyeball, this pattern indicates that we will soon be entering a period of more frequent, and stronger, El Nino events:

Anny Cazenave, Habib-Boubacar Dieng, Benoit Meyssignac,Karina von Schuckmann, Bertrand Decharme & Etienne Berthier (2014), "The rate of sea-level rise", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 4, Pages: 358–361, doi:10.1038/nclimate2159


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n5/full/nclimate2159.html

Abstract: "Present-day sea-level rise is a major indicator of climate change. Since the early 1990s, sea level rose at a mean rate of ~3.1 mm yr−1. However, over the last decade a slowdown of this rate, of about 30%, has been recorded. It coincides with a plateau in Earth’s mean surface temperature evolution, known as the recent pause in warming. Here we present an analysis based on sea-level data from the altimetry record of the past ~20 years that separates interannual natural variability in sea level from the longer-term change probably related to anthropogenic global warming. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation, through its impact on the global water cycle. We find that when correcting for interannual variability, the past decade’s slowdown of the global mean sea level disappears, leading to a similar rate of sea-level rise (of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) during the first and second decade of the altimetry era. Our results confirm the need for quantifying and further removing from the climate records the short-term natural climate variability if one wants to extract the global warming signal."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1468 on: August 11, 2014, 08:37:37 PM »
Niño 3.4 has reversed direction and increased to 0.0 C. All regions have warmed over the last week. The CFSv2 model is still predicting a moderate El Niño to arrive by the northern autumn.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3
 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1469 on: August 11, 2014, 10:49:12 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 11th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down slightly to -8.98, the 30 day avg was up just slightly at -4.87, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -0.71. The 30 and 90 day avg SOI values indicate atmospheric conditions reflective of both a neutral phase of the MJO and ENSO-neutral, but the negative side of neutral(SIDE NOTE: According to models and the MJO weekly update, there is some evidence of a very weak inactive phase of the MJO or at least suppressed convection over the Maritime Continents and far Western Pacific, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting the SOI at this time. Although models do suggest there is a very small area of enhanced convection just to the northwest of Tahiti, which may be whats helping keep daily SOI values negative?). According to GFS models for SLP/precip at Darwin and Tahiti, we should see slightly negative to near dead neutral daily SOI values for at least the next 3-5 days, possibly longer. We still have one more strong negative daily SOI value leaving the 30 day avg tomorrow. This should cause the 30 day avg to rise just a bit more, but remain negative. After that, we'll have several days of weak positive daily SOI values leaving the 30 day avg. Therefore, I suspect that by August 13, the 30 day avg will likely stabilize or maybe even start slowly dropping again. At least in the short term.

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1470 on: August 12, 2014, 01:57:40 AM »
Attached is the latest GOES visible satellite image from the NHC, on August 11(TOP), the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) GFS 138 hr forecast for precip and 850 hPa wind anomalies(CENTER), and the NHC Eastern Pacific 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook(BOTTOM), which shows that hurricane Julio(barely hanging onto hurricane status) is projected to eventually recurve to the northeast as he gets caught in mid latitude westerlies, possibly merging with a larger area of low pressure in about 4-6 days. Of more interest, GFS models and the NHC suggest the ITCZ and its associated tropical activity may be gearing up for another go(see center and bottom images). With 2 new areas of disturbed weather in the Central/Eastern Pacific. According to the NHC, 1 area has a  80% chance of development over the next 5 days while the other has 20% chance of development over the next 5 days. The models are currently suggesting that the area with highest chance of development may be headed towards the Hawaiian islands again.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1471 on: August 12, 2014, 01:58:14 AM »
Per the data below, BoM's 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.2:

20140712,20140810,-5.2

edit: Here is the plot:
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 04:02:15 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1472 on: August 12, 2014, 04:09:46 PM »
Similar to the NOAA Nino data that deep octopus cited, for the week ending August 10 2014 the BoM indicates in the first attached figure that the Nino3.4 index is up, in this case up to +0.2

The second attached BoM plot of the IOD index indicates that this value is low, which typically means that a strong, or super, El Nino is not likely this year.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1473 on: August 12, 2014, 04:12:14 PM »
The attached BoM Nino Indices for the week ending August 10 2014, are for the Nino 1, 2, 3, and 4 indices, respectively.  Some indices are up, and some are down, indicating a period of transition.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1474 on: August 12, 2014, 04:22:18 PM »
The first attached NOAA image of the Equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature anomalies for August 6 2014, shows that the upwelling phase in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is beginning to dissipate, while the new down-welling phase (the new EKW) is growing in the Western Equatorial Pacific.

The second attached NOAA image of the Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies circa August 12 2014, confirms that the upwelling phase is well along in its dissipation, and that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific SSTA should continue to increase (as we have seen for Nino 1, 3.4, and 4 (per the BoM data for the week ending August 10 2014).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1475 on: August 12, 2014, 07:15:00 PM »
Per the linked data, the final PDO value for July is +0.7, which indicates a strong positive trend:

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest


YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL   
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70

Seeing as the ENSO indices are becoming more positive in August, I hope that this data indicates to readers that the PDO is not likely to become negative again this year.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 11:04:45 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1476 on: August 12, 2014, 09:14:33 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 12th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up slightly to -8.44, the 30 day avg was up slightly at -4.46, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -0.80. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but the negative side of neutral.

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1477 on: August 12, 2014, 10:05:15 PM »
From BOM's August 12th update:

Quote
El Niño still a possibility for 2014

The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development. Some warming has occurred in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean in the recent fortnight, due to a weakening of the trade winds. If the trade winds remain weak, more warming towards El Niño thresholds is possible.

The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status. This means the chance of an El Niño developing in 2014 is at least 50%, which is double the normal likelihood of an event. Five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño is likely for spring. However, if El Niño were to occur, it is unlikely to be a strong event.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1478 on: August 13, 2014, 01:12:55 AM »
Per the following data, the BoM 30-day moving average SOI issued today has drifted up to -4.7:

20140713,20140811,-4.7

Edit: Here is the plot.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2014, 03:53:36 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1479 on: August 13, 2014, 03:39:06 AM »
Attached is the UAlbany(courtesy Carl Shreck) GFS 174 hr forecast for precip and 850 hPa wind anomalies(TOP), and the NHC Eastern Pacific 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook(BOTTOM). Weak, but still effective and much needed westerly wind anomalies are forecast to return to the dateline and far Eastern Equatorial Pacific regions by early/mid next week(anomalies are essentially neutral in this region right now while weak easterly anomalies are present in the Western Pacific, but anomalies in the Western Pacific are forecast to turn neutral by early next week). The NHC is now giving both areas of disturbed weather currently in the Eastern Pacific a high chance for development over the next few days. In fact, the NHC expects one of these disturbances to become a tropical depression or storm by later tonight or tomorrow. To me, this increases the likelihood that the forecast currently being projected by GFS models is at least somewhat accurate. This is good.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Tropical Depression Eleven-E just formed in the Eastern Pacific as of 8 pm PDT. It's expected to become hurricane Karina in about 3 days. Tracking towards Hawaii. See attached image of the projected track and intensity for TD Eleven-E. Provided is a link to the NHC for those who like to view the latest advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/024809.shtml?5-daynl#contents
« Last Edit: August 13, 2014, 05:49:13 AM by bigB »

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1480 on: August 13, 2014, 10:52:56 PM »
The first attachment is the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 13th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was up slightly to -7.95, the 30 day avg was down slightly at -4.72, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -0.89. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but the negative side of neutral. According to GFS models for SLP/precip at Darwin and Tahiti, weak negative daily SOI values should continue through early next week(there may be a few daily values in the neutral range, but the overall trend in daily SOI values over the next several days looks to be weak negative). Positive daily SOI values will be leaving the 30 day avg over the next 6 days. Therefore, since negative daily SOI values are expected to be replacing the positive daily values leaving the 30 day avg, we should see the 30 day avg SOI values continue slowly dropping(becoming more negative) for the next several days.

The second attached image is a comparison of OSCAR plots for 5 day ocean surface currents means/anomalies. The top plots are centered around July 17, 2014 and the bottom plots are centered around August 12, 2014. Up until early June 2014, the equatorial pacific ocean currents were flowing in favor of El Nino, with the NECC flowing anomalously strong from west to east. Initiated by all the westerly wind activity we had earlier in the year. During mid June 2014, we had about 8-10 days of moderate+ easterly winds over most of the equatorial pacific, which helped break down the favorable west to east flow of the equatorial pacific ocean currents, with the NECC basically shutting down or almost reversing itself. This allowed a lot of the piled up warm water in Eastern Pacific to move back towards the Western Pacific, likely playing a role in the big burst of warm SSTA across the equatorial Central/Eastern Pacific during that time. The equatorial currents have not been able to recover since that bout of easterly wind in mid June. However, during the past few weeks there have been continued signs that the equatorial pacific ocean currents are once again breaking down and shifting back towards a west to east flow favoring El Nino. This would be thanks to the recent weak westerly wind anomalies and tropical activity associated with the ITCZ over the past several weeks. Looking at the anomalies in the plots from July 17, compared to the anomalies in the plots from August 12, one can see that the flow is not yet “ideal”, but has drastically changed over the past 3-4 weeks. We need westerly wind anomalies to to kick back in soon, to keep this process going.

EDIT: To show what the equatorial pacific ocean surface currents looked like before mid June, i have provided the OSCAR plots for 5 day ocean surface currents from May 17, 2014. Notice the NECC or ECC was flowing anomalously strong from west to east. Also, provided is a link to the OSCAR site for those who would like to view current or historical data.

http://www.oscar.noaa.gov/datadisplay/oscar_latlon.php?pagetype=nonjava
« Last Edit: August 14, 2014, 05:47:59 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1481 on: August 14, 2014, 01:50:13 AM »
The BoM 30-day moving average SOI have drifted down to -4.9

20140714,20140812,-4.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1482 on: August 14, 2014, 11:35:58 PM »
The first attachment is the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 14th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -13.84, the 30 day avg was down at -5.80, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -1.09. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies. According to the latest runs by GFS models, Darwin and Tahiti are expected to see a SLP/precip pattern that would favor weak to possibly moderate negative daily SOI values through mid next week. This would cause the 30 and 90 day SOI values to continue dropping. GFS models are also suggesting that by early next week, a section of the SPCZ may possibly move directly over Tahiti, lowering SLP even further in that region. At the same time, SLP at Darwin is forecast to remain relatively high. This may help facilitate strong negative daily SOI values during that time. If it even happens. See Second attached image.

Sleepy,

Yes I'm absolutely positive that OSCAR is updating correctly. OSCAR came back online around August 6. OSCAR actually went offline around July 17.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1483 on: August 15, 2014, 02:15:08 AM »
Attached is BoM's 30-day moving average SOI plot issued August 15, 2014 (Sydney time), indicating that the value has drifted down to -5.6, and I concur with bigB that it is likely that this index will continue to become more negative for at least the next several days:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1484 on: August 15, 2014, 06:24:57 PM »
It seems likely to me that if an El Nino occurs this year (indicated better than even odds by most projections), then the SPCZ will need to become active, and will need to shift northeastward, before the end of September.  Therefore, I am posting the following link and extract from Wikipedia about the SPCZ


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_Convergence_Zone


Extract: "The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), a reverse-oriented monsoon trough, is a band of low-level convergence, cloudiness and precipitation extending from the Western Pacific Warm Pool at the maritime continent south-eastwards towards French Polynesia and as far as the Cook Islands (160W, 20S). The SPCZ is a portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which lies in a band extending east-west near the Equator but can be more extratropical in nature, especially east of the Dateline. It is considered the largest and most important piece of the ITCZ, and has the least dependence upon heating from a nearby landmass during the summer than any other portion of the monsoon trough.  The SPCZ can affect the precipitation on Polynesian islands in the southwest Pacific Ocean, so it is important to understand how the SPCZ behaves with large-scale, global climate phenomenon, such as the ITCZ, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a portion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1485 on: August 15, 2014, 09:00:11 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 15th, the SOI values are as follows: the daily value was down to -14.69, the 30 day avg was down at -6.68, and the 90 day avg was down slightly at -1.42. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies. GFS models are continuing to suggest that over the next 5-7 days we'll see a SLP/precip pattern at Darwin and Tahiti that would favor weak-moderate negative daily SOI values.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1486 on: August 16, 2014, 01:21:07 AM »
Per the following data the BoM 30-day moving average has dropped down to -7.1, thus I would not be surprised if the indicate dips down below -8 in the next one to three days:

20140716,20140814,-7.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1487 on: August 16, 2014, 01:40:08 AM »
The attached earth surface wind map for August 15 2014, indicates that an active phase of the SPCZ may be forming that is shifted to the northeast, where if it develops, could help to support El Nino atmospheric conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1488 on: August 16, 2014, 03:01:33 AM »
Attached are two images of the Earth Maps for surface wind(TOP), and SSTA/ocean surface currents(BOTTOM). Data is through August 15, 2014. PLEASE NOTE: It appears to me that the Earth Map for SSTA and ocean currents is in fact showing valid data for ocean surface currents. OSCAR, is for sure back online and it took the Earth Map/nullschool website 2 weeks to notice data was not updating before they posted a notice. So its possible that the Earth Map/nullschool website just hasn't realized that OSCAR is back online and updating again. It looks to me like the ocean surface currents shown by the Earth Map are in fact up to date. If data streams from OSCAR to the Earth Map, then its definitely up to date(this appears to be the case as data from the latest OSCAR update on August 12, matches data currently shown by the Earth Map). Since I and others such as ASLR have been talking about the ocean surface currents, the ITCZ, the SPCZ, and the SOI, I wanted to point out a few things using the Earth Maps. Notice the current location of the ITCZ and its associated tropical activity. The ITCZ appears to be displaced a bit to the north in the Central and far western edge of the Eastern Pacific, this is likely due to the pockets of cool water currently located in that region. The ITCZ moves away from cooler SST. The ITCZ and its associated tropical activity have recently helped to restrengthen the NECC, just a little bit though. Continued westerly wind anomalies and tropical activity will keep this process going, but currently, weak easterly to neutral zonal wind anomalies are in control. Current forecasts don't look super favorable as suppressed convection is projected to remain in control of the Western Pacific for at least another 1 to possibly 2 weeks. Some models are more aggressive with this matter than others. We'll see. Only weak westerly anomalies over a small area near the date line are now in the forecast, but that's better than nothing. At least some of those same models are also projecting an area of enhanced convection associated with tropical activity will hang around the Eastern Pacific during the same time. Also, a very small area of enhanced convection, which would likely be associated with the SPCZ, is forecast to hang out very near or just to the northwest of Tahiti. Notice in the Earth Wind Map, the SPCZ extends to the south and west of Tahiti. It appears that the SPCZ is helping lower SLP near Tahiti. Note: I realize there are other ocean surface currents in the equatorial region such as the NEC and the more elusive SECC, but at this time, I'm focusing on the SEC and the NECC.

Thanks, bigB

EDIT: Just noticed your post ASLR, at least they reinforce each other in a way :) The image i posted a yesterday of the GFS forecast for SLP/precip, suggests just that. A strengthening SPCZ shifting northeast with a section moving over Tahiti helping lower SLP in that region even further. Not for a couple more days though.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2014, 03:34:03 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1489 on: August 16, 2014, 07:02:20 PM »
The linked reference indicates that for high rates of GHG emissions (such as we have now) "… there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption.  We further demonstrate that most non-volcanic hiatuses across CMIP5 models are associated with enhanced cooling in the equatorial Pacific linked to the transition to a negative IPO phase."  As I believe that we are now entering a positive phase of the IPO, this research implies that we may never see another negative phase of the IPO (in the foreseeable future):

Nicola Maher, Alexander Sen Gupta and Matthew H. England, (2014), "Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st Centuries", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060527


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060527/abstract


Abstract: "The latest generation of climate model simulations are used to investigate the occurrence of hiatus periods in global surface air temperature in the past and under two future warming scenarios. Hiatus periods are identified in three categories, (i) those due to volcanic eruptions, (ii) those associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and (iii) those affected by anthropogenically released aerosols in the mid 20th Century. The likelihood of future hiatus periods is found to be sensitive to the rate of change of anthropogenic forcing. Under high rates of greenhouse gas emissions there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption. We further demonstrate that most non-volcanic hiatuses across CMIP5 models are associated with enhanced cooling in the equatorial Pacific linked to the transition to a negative IPO phase."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1490 on: August 16, 2014, 08:46:06 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 16th, the daily SOI value was up to -6.49, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -7.08, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -1.68. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very very weak El Nino like tendencies.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1491 on: August 17, 2014, 05:19:38 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM on August 17 2014 indicates a value of -7.2 for the 30-day moving SOI value.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

nowayout

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1492 on: August 17, 2014, 07:04:11 AM »
The linked reference indicates that for high rates of GHG emissions (such as we have now) "… there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption.  We further demonstrate that most non-volcanic hiatuses across CMIP5 models are associated with enhanced cooling in the equatorial Pacific linked to the transition to a negative IPO phase."  As I believe that we are now entering a positive phase of the IPO, this research implies that we may never see another negative phase of the IPO (in the foreseeable future):

Nicola Maher, Alexander Sen Gupta and Matthew H. England, (2014), "Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st Centuries", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060527


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060527/abstract


Abstract: "The latest generation of climate model simulations are used to investigate the occurrence of hiatus periods in global surface air temperature in the past and under two future warming scenarios. Hiatus periods are identified in three categories, (i) those due to volcanic eruptions, (ii) those associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and (iii) those affected by anthropogenically released aerosols in the mid 20th Century. The likelihood of future hiatus periods is found to be sensitive to the rate of change of anthropogenic forcing. Under high rates of greenhouse gas emissions there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption. We further demonstrate that most non-volcanic hiatuses across CMIP5 models are associated with enhanced cooling in the equatorial Pacific linked to the transition to a negative IPO phase."

Tell me I'm wrong - but doesn't this outline the current impact of the chinese smog?

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1493 on: August 17, 2014, 07:51:44 AM »
The first attached image is from STORMSURF.COM of the GFS 6 hr and 144 hr forecast for SLP/precip in the South Pacific, which suggests that the SPCZ will slowly be shifting northeast over the next several days while maintaining some strength. Eventually moving over Tahiti where it would likely help to lower SLP in that region(SPCZ=convection=low pressure). Over the past week or two, a large elongated pocket of warm SSTA has moved in and surrounded Tahiti, which is also another source helping to lower SLP in that region(warm SSTA=reduced SLP above them). However, according to GFS models, the SPCZ may weaken some by 180 hrs out, but that's a bit too far into the future to be considered reliable. We'll have to wait and see what the model suggests in about 3-4 days.

The second attached image is just a global view of the same model and also shows the 144 hr forecast for SLP/precipitation. Just wanted to provide an image where both the SPCZ and ITCZ could be seen. Below are links to these Stormsurf.com GFS 180 hr forecast models, which update multiple times daily. In case anyone is interested.

Full Glob link: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_precip

EDIT: South Pacific link: http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=spac_precip
« Last Edit: August 17, 2014, 06:09:00 PM by bigB »

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1494 on: August 17, 2014, 07:40:55 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 17th, the daily SOI value was up to -1.64, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -7.33, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -1.78. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies.

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1495 on: August 17, 2014, 09:50:42 PM »
Attached are the Dynamical and Statistical MJO forecasts, issued August 16. The Dynamical model suggests a building moderate+ suppressed convection/inactive phase of the MJO is currently over  the Maritime Continents/Western Pacific and will have that region on straight up lock down through the rest of August. The Statistical model also suggests suppressed convection/inactive phase of the MJO is currently over the Maritime continents/Western Pacific, but will begin to weaken over the next 1-2 weeks, turning dead neutral by the end of August. If one of these scenarios ends up actually occurring, the forecast being made by the Statistical model would obviously be the preferred outcome. Really, neutral with a slight bias towards the active phase of the MJO is what we want to see. If the forecast projected by the Dynamical model were to occur, it wouldn’t be good to say the least. Also of note, since westerly wind anomalies near the dateline have been absent for about 5 days now, cool water has been able to upwell in the eastern pacific and ocean heat content anomalies have stopped building. Weak westerly anomalies are forecast to kick back in near the date line and over much of the Central/Eastern Equatorial Pacific, but it appears we may need at least weak-moderate anomalies to get us through until the next kelvin wave surfaces. The MJO forecast suggested by the Dynamical model has me a bit concerned, we'll have to see what happens over the next week or so. These models have proven to have a hard time getting a handle on things when El Nino (like) conditions are developing or at play in the background. Notice the tiny area of enhanced convection I circled in red, just northwest of Tahiti. I suspect this may be associated with the SPCZ. Can't the ocean and atmosphere just hook up, get married, go their honey moon, and have an El Nino already?

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1496 on: August 18, 2014, 02:32:14 AM »
In an earlier post I mentioned that current SSTA at Tahiti and Darwin may possibly be contributing to a SLP pattern favoring negative to near negative daily SOI values. So provided are high resolution SSTA images from the EMC/MMAB, updated August 17. Notice in the top image showing Tahiti, SSTA are slightly warmer than avg, thus supporting slightly lower than avg SLP. Now Notice in the bottom image showing Darwin, SSTA are slightly below avg, thus supporting slightly higher than avg SLP.

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1497 on: August 18, 2014, 03:13:26 AM »
The attached video is for those who would like to view the latest ENSO/MJO update/forecast video from STORMSURF.COM, by MARK SPONSLER, updated August 17, 2014. Skip to 10:52 to view ENSO/MJO update/forecast.




AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2134
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1498 on: August 18, 2014, 07:10:41 AM »
According to the attached plot issued by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has reached -8.0, and if this index stays below -8.0 for a few months this will be indicative of El Nino conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1499 on: August 18, 2014, 07:14:08 AM »
Attached is Goes satellite imagery from the NHC, showing TS Karina and newly formed TD 12-E. 12-E is relatively large in size. Its expected to start tracking to the north by tomorrow, heading in a general direction towards So Cal where it may or may not bring much needed tropical precipitation. Its expected to stay well offshore, but chances for precipitation in So Cal are high enough that the NHC has stated that anyone living the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of this TC due to a possible surge in tropical moisture around August 12. Definitely gonna send surf as well. The following link is provided for those who would like to or possibly should monitor this TC.

NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?5-daynl#contents