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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1850 on: November 08, 2014, 05:33:26 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -11.8:
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1851 on: November 08, 2014, 04:45:30 PM »
Provided in the first attachment is the latest CDAS global SSTA map, and Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), both updated Nov 6th at 06Z. Per this data, the Nino 3.4 region is currently at +0.705.

Looks as though the updated index is +0.713 C at Nov 6th 18Z. Throughout the basin, warmer water is broadening. With the atmosphere apparently responding, we may finally have our bona fide El Niño starting up.

Niño 3.4 is now +0.831 C at Nov 8th 06z.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1852 on: November 08, 2014, 05:37:18 PM »
Personally, I can't believe I'm sitting here one year later watching take off.
And now I'll have to stick around. If this is the future, the next year will be even more fascinating than this one.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1853 on: November 08, 2014, 11:36:50 PM »
Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 8th, the daily SOI value was down to -21.89, the 30 day avg was down to -12.31, and the 90 day avg was down to –8.60. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. The GFS model still suggests that SLP at Tahiti is to rise some by mid next week. If that were to occur, it would likely result in weaker negative daily SOI values. This would also happen to coincide with old moderate negative daily SOI values exiting the 30 day avg. Therefore, if current projections hold true, the 30 day avg will likely either level off or even rise slightly during that time. For now, I suspect that the 30 and 90 day avg will continue dropping with the 30 day avg possibly dropping to below -13 or -14, and the 90 day avg possibly dropping to near -9.

The second attachment is the CDAS Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), updated Nov 8th at 12Z, which per this data suggests that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region are up around +0.828. The red line is a rough estimate by eyeball (no math involved) of the trendline.

The third attachment of the TAO plots of 5 day subsurface temps (top) and anomalies (bottom) for data valid through Nov 7, shows that there are currently warm subsurface anomalies from the dateline region to the Galapagos Islands. There's even a few pockets of +3.0 deg c anomalies popping up. The downwelling Kelvin wave back at 155W still has anomalies being measured in the +4.0 degree C range. Per this data, there's nothing on the subsurface that would suggest any immediate threat to warm SSTA. Fluctuations from day to day or week to week are imminent, but overall, SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region are likely to continue gently warming or at least hold. Possibly through the New year. Unfortunately (for CA drought), as discussed in a quote I provided a while back from NOAA, based on climatology, during November-December-January, SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region typically need to reach +1.5 deg c above normal in order to fully influence global weather patterns (ie. Enhance the jet stream and change the storm track). After doing some research of historical rainfall records from Santa Barbara, CA. I discovered the following: During the weak El Nino of 2005 Santa Barbara received 36.94 inches of rain!! During the weak El Nino of 2007 we received 6.41 inches of rain. So, 2 weak El Ninos, but 2 totally different rainfall totals. So, it's really 50/50, but I would like to hope that since some of the low pressure systems in the North Pacific this year have been slightly stronger than normal while the high pressure systems have been slightly weaker than normal, we'll at least see a normal rain year (18.46 inches). I realize a normal rain year for drought areas wont solve anything, but the thought of another year of less than 9 inches of rain is terrifying. For the CA drought it would be a consequence not have an El Nino, as long as it wasnt a Super El Nino.

JayW,

Sorry if there was any confusion! I was just saying that if one wanted to attempt to forecast the SOI values issued by the long paddock site, the GFS forecast for the time of day around 12Z corresponds well with the official daily SLP readings (for Tahiti and even Darwin) issued by the Long Paddock (daily SLP readings are of course then used to compute the daily SOI values). I don't know why this works, but it does. Since weather (high and low pressure) is ever changing/moving, SLP readings at Tahiti and Darwin will change/vary throughout the day. So again, I was just saying that while the SOI is hard to forecast (that's why there aren't very many forecasts for the SOI out there, it's too volatile), I found a method for forecasting it that sorta works, (about 65-70% of the time). Notice in the 4th attached image, which shows the November 10th forecast for SLP at Tahiti, 06Z top and 18Z bottom, the forecast for SLP at Tahiti changes throughout the day (or 24hr period). The same thing also happens at Darwin, but SLP usually changes less for that region (at least recently). Anyways, if the total difference between the two regions is 2 or 3 mb (here's a completely made up example, say at the 00Z SLP for Darwin=1010 mb Tahiti=1013 mb VS. 12Z Darwin=1011 mb and Tahiti=1011 mb) it can mean the difference between weak positive or weak negative daily SOI values. Also, if the latest daily SOI value is say -12 and the daily SOI value exiting the 30 day avg is say -14, then the 30 day avg will rise. However, if the daily value is -15 but the value exiting is -14, then the 30 day avg will fall. So basically a tiny adjustment can affect all SOI values. Using the forecast for the 12Z (that specific time of day) corresponds well with what ends up being issued by the long paddock site (not always but close enough that with practice it usually works pretty decent). So we're only talking about GFS forecasts for the 12Z time of day working best if one were trying to make a possible prediction in regards to the Long Paddock SOI values. Sounds crazy but it's true. 

Edit: I had to correct the 4th attached image as I accidentally posted different days. It's fixed. The other part of the formula is knowing when or when not to believe the forecast model (basing a human forecast just on model forecast data alone will almost always let you down. The model can be 100% wrong sometimes and then be 99% accurate a week later). Part of that would be factoring in the recent trends in actual/official daily SLP readings and SOI values issued by Long Paddock. So that's where the practice comes in. I think it helps too that Surfline.com has tweaked their GFS SLP model. It's actually very similar to the earth wind map, in that it allows you to zoom in and out and view any possible location around the globe (up to 372 hours out). In fact, it allows you to zoom in so far in that I can fill up the whole computer screen with just the tiny Islands of Tahiti. That very small advantage allows you to see exactly what the SLP forecast is for Tahiti. Without having to guess or eyeball it.

Thanks,
bigB
« Last Edit: November 09, 2014, 06:15:00 AM by bigB »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1854 on: November 09, 2014, 12:48:51 AM »
Personally, I can't believe I'm sitting here one year later watching take off.
And now I'll have to stick around. If this is the future, the next year will be even more fascinating than this one.



The fact of the matter in reality the probability of an official El Niño is now less likely then anytime in the last 12 months. (CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast; And some folks and meteorologist are acting like it is the highest) They need to learn to ignore the background noise. In NOAA's blog update they sound much less confident and are already starting to make excuses. If you read through the previous entries they have a much higher confidence and are trying to make excuses why an El Niño has not materialized as of yet. The ONI value for ASO was 0.2. Meteorologist and the majority of the folks in these forums also do not realize the CFSv2 forecast that they have been posting on forums or on their websites is not the models official forecast. When you model any real world problem you need to map the observed PDF to the forecast PDF to make an accurate forecast. (You need the raw model output to start with before you can correct it.) The model posted is the PDF corrected. There will be many excuses upcoming in the next several months.

www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-november-enso-forecast-slip-slidin%E2%80%99-away

Prediction: In NOAA's December update probabilities will fall below 50% and they will push the start of El Niño to Spring 2015.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1855 on: November 09, 2014, 05:10:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -12.5:
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1856 on: November 10, 2014, 12:05:06 AM »
Attached is the latest CDAS Nino 3.4 index (courtesy Levi Cowan), updated Nov 9th at 12Z. Per this data, SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region are up around +0.901. If the recent trend in this data is similar to the trend in data used by the BOM and NOAA, I suspect that when those agencies release their weekly values for the Nino 3.4 index they will have increased some from last week.

weatherdude88,

Thank you for your input. Regardless of whether or not it's official, some people may just prefer the uncorrected version. From time to time, the uncorrected version can be more accurate (forecast wise). I suppose as long as one knows the difference then no harm no foul. Besides, the CFSv2 is just one model's projection of the possible outcome, which happens to change quite frequently, probability density function corrected or otherwise. As such, it's just one piece of the puzzle as to what's going on with ENSO. ONI values can also be unofficial at first and the following excerpt regarding the ONI is from NOAA's CPC:

Quote
Notice: Because of the high frequency filter applied to the ERSSTv3b data (Smith et al. 2008, J.Climate), ONI values may change up to two months after the initial "real time" value is posted. Therefore, the most recent ONI values should be considered an estimate.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1857 on: November 10, 2014, 02:40:40 AM »
The first attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -13.2 (indicating atmospheric conditions supporting the possible development of El Nino conditions).

The second, third and fourth attached image present BoM summaries of Nino 3.4 outlook forecasts for Nov 2014, January 2015 and March 2015, respectively.  While, the BoM has a higher standard (0.8 C vs 0.5 C) for El Nino conditions and NOAA; and while some forecasts are more bullish than other; nevertheless, on whole, I believe that these summaries are generally bullish for the slow development of a gradually building El Nino event.
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1858 on: November 10, 2014, 08:46:11 AM »
weatherdude88, my bias is normally towards ECMWF.
If I was interested in what's officially declared, and corrected model outputs, I wouldn't be reading here, would I? I'm just an old and slow, retired engineer, who has found an interest in meteorology. I'm not a scientist and never will be. I'd rather express myself in my own language, but here I'll have to use English. Allthough El Nino is my primary interest right now, I found this wonderful forum thanks to ASLR and his posts around Antarctica.

As for bigB's comment, Regardless of whether or not it's official, some people may just prefer the uncorrected version. From time to time, the uncorrected version can be more accurate (forecast wise). I would like to add what I've noticed myself, that when it comes to regular weather forecasts/runs with a lead time of ten days or more, the probability can be as high as 50% that the older runs are more correct. I've seen the same expressed (in my own language) by the same guy who wrote the user guide to ECMWF products.

In my mind it is important to try to memorize older forecasts/runs as that will provide a better understanding. And I do have a feeling that the American long range runs sometimes can be better.

So, I use the same apporach with these long range runs. Right or wrong? I don't know... But I wouldn't be surprised seeing +0,8ºC in December continuing throughout spring 2015.
Even the ECMWF plumes supports that.


So right now, my highly unproffessional and personal opinion, is that the corrected output of CFSv2 you attached is less correct, and I do see the current development as a kick off.

wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1859 on: November 10, 2014, 09:04:20 AM »
"I wouldn't be surprised seeing +0,8ºC in December continuing throughout spring 2015."

Thanks for your thoughts, sleepy. I think there is a reasonably good possibility for this, too. But it could go on well into next year.

I'm wondering if, rather than a super-El Nino, we may have a super-long El Nino, kind of like the one that went on for years in the early '90s. Are those common in the longer-term record?
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Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1860 on: November 10, 2014, 09:52:15 AM »

Meteorologist and the majority of the folks in these forums also do not realize the CFSv2 forecast that they have been posting on forums or on their websites is not the models official forecast. When you model any real world problem you need to map the observed PDF to the forecast PDF to make an accurate forecast. (You need the raw model output to start with before you can correct it.) The model posted is the PDF corrected. There will be many excuses upcoming in the next several months.

www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-november-enso-forecast-slip-slidin%E2%80%99-away

Prediction: In NOAA's December update probabilities will fall below 50% and they will push the start of El Niño to Spring 2015.

It seems most of the time CFS runs with the non-pdf corrected model projection.  Last time I looked (maybe as much as a couple months ago) I'm pretty sure they were using the raw model output on their regular weekly updates.  It seems that its only because the raw model output is starting to look a bit unusual they have switched to a pdf corrected version.  This last happened a year or three ago.  Can't remember exactly when, but I do remember someone posting a model forecast and getting very excited about it - from memory it might have been a prediction of an La nina peaking at something like 50% stronger than the previous strongest ever La Nina episode.  A pdf correct version appeared shortly after and then a few months later they switched back again.

What is a pdf corrected version?  Very roughly they look at the typical error for hindcasts when run for the last few decades for models showing a similar prediction, and adjust the current forecast under the assumption the same error is likely to repeat.  Whether this approach is helpful I'm not sure - to me it feels a little bit like over fitting of the model.  In particular if the ENSO environment is changing due to either of AGW, or a changing PDO phase, then past statistics may be a poor guide for future performance (as may be models that have been verified against past statistic).

What is unusual about the current model forecast?  The large majority of ENSO events peak around January and then tend to decay in the new year.  Most mutli-year events such as early 90s and 02-07 tend to lose much of their intensity in the early part of each year and then strengthen again later in the year.  The pdf corrected forecast seems to be taking this tendency into account by adjusting the model forecast towards this more typical pattern.

However there is a precedent for the non pdf adjusted forecast when a weaker el nino in early 1987 continued to build through much of the year.  The western warm pool which is usually cooling significantly at this time of year during an el nino is still very strong, so potentially providing significant fuel to keep an el nino event building throughout the year.  Finally most of the other models seem to maintain intensity throughout the early part of the year with little to no decay, although CFS is the only one which really starts to strengthen in the middle of the year, and to me it does look like the amount of warming is more than can be reasonably expected.  But then I thought the mild predictions of the models during the height of the Kelvin wave early this year were underestimating the likelihood of a severe event by about now, but it looks like they were reasonably accurate.
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deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1861 on: November 10, 2014, 04:20:48 PM »
Niño 3.4 region jumped to 0.8 C over the last week, the highest since 2012.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01OCT2014     21.7 1.1     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.2 0.5
 08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 15OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 22OCT2014     21.8 0.8     25.8 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 29OCT2014     21.8 0.6     25.8 0.9     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.8
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1862 on: November 10, 2014, 04:59:25 PM »
NOAA's NCEP offers the following ENSO status summary, and the attached images; and as has been the case for some while now, if the atmosphere would start to reinforce the ocean then there is a chance of developing an El Nino.  If not then the heat in the ocean may start to dissipate over the coming weeks:


"ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.
There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The first attached image shows the evolution of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom. indicating that the current down-welling phase of the current EKW is being followed by an up-welling phase; which may soon cool the Eastern Eq. Pac. unless new westerlies send more heat eastward.

The second attached image shows the current Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom. indicating that the value as of Nov 10 2014 may be peaking (without more atmospheric support).

The third attached image shows the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom., indicating that an up-well phase appears to be developing to follow on the heels of the current down-welling phase of the current Equatorial Oceanic Kelvin Wave.
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1863 on: November 10, 2014, 10:35:59 PM »
The first attachment is of the GFS 48 hr forecast for SLP at Tahiti and Darwin, which suggests a possible difference in SLP between the two regions that would likely result in weak negative or even weak positive daily SOI values. We're about to move through a cluster of moderate negative daily SOI values exiting the the 30 day avg and looking at the recent trend in daily SOI values, even if this forecast doesn't fully materialize, the rapidly falling 30 day avg has likely just about reached its bottom. If the forecast does materialize, the 30day avg would likely begin to rise, but maybe only briefly. The GFS model also suggests that SLP conditions at Tahiti and Darwin are to become favorable again (for stronger negative daily SOI values) by this weekend.

The 2nd attachment of GFS based daily SOI value forecast from FOXHOLEMETS.ORG, which should help clear up any possible leftover confusion out there about the whole GFS 12Z Long Paddock forecasting thing. Notice that each day has a 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z forecasts for SLP, and that throughout the day the SLP changes, sometimes drastically (By the way this is the forecast as of 00Z Sunday). I found that if I were to take the projected SLP readings for each day at 12Z, and then compare those readings to current daily readings by the Long Paddock site. Then I could come up with a rough idea of what daily SOI values would be for about 4-5 days out. At the very least, I could get a good idea of the trend, which still helps. When I tried this theory with SLP forecasts for other times of the day it just doesn’t work. PLEASE NOTE: I don't know exactly what the formula is used by FOXHOLEMETS.ORG to compute their daily SOI values using the GFS suggested SLP readings. I suspect its similar to the the way the 30 and 90 avg are found, but just using SLP readings. That would be where my formula and their formula is totally different. After doing some analysis on historical Long Paddock daily SLP readings and daily SOI values, their method of forecast for daily SOI values doesn’t appear that it would match up too well with what actually happens might happen. For example: notice how on November 12th at 06Z the forecast suggests SLP at Tahiti is to be 1015.4 mb and 1007.1 mb at Darwin. If we took those readings and compared them to recent actual daily SOI values issued by the Long Paddock site, we would see that a difference in SLP that large would be far more positive than the suggested +10.06. In fact, an actual value issued by Long Paddock site on Oct 31 was 1014.20 at Tahiti and 1009.65 at Darwin, and the daily value was +10.70. Therefore, a reading of 1015.4 mb at Tahiti and 1007.1 mb at Darwin could not equal +10.06 (if you were just solely factoring in the suggested daily readings by themselves). In my method I use the same GFS forecast for SLP reading at Tahiti and Darwin, but I take just the suggested SLP readings for each day at 12Z and then compare them to similar recent daily SLP readings issued by the Long Paddock site. For example: See the attached image where the GFS forecast for Nov 10 at 12Z matches up with what actually happened, while all other forecasts for the same day where way off. Hopefully this makes sense. Try it you may be surprised........ but remember, it only works 65-70% of the time.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2014, 10:57:18 PM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1864 on: November 11, 2014, 01:05:47 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained unchanged at -13.2:

20141011,20141109,-13.2
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1865 on: November 11, 2014, 03:24:10 AM »
Attached are the TAO plots of subsurface temps/anomalies for November 4th (left) and November 9th (right). Notice that back on November 4th, there was indeed a visible pocket of cool, but very weak anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. However, over the past several days those cool anomalies have all but disappeared from TAO data with warm anomalies continuing to build/expand (which are being measured by actual sensors at depth). A warm pocket (or downwelling Kelvin wave) of +3.0 deg C anomalies extends from175E-120W with an embedded pocket of +4.0 deg C anomalies. +2.0 deg C anomalies extend from the dateline all the way to the Galapagos Islands. It's my personal opinion that whatever cool upwelling phase does exist, is extremely weak and will not have any major/large impact on the warm SSTA at the surface. At least not anywhere near the magnitude of what we saw before the last two Kelvin waves. There's currently enough warm water pushing east to last into January. SSTA anomalies are currently building/or warmest in the Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 regions, which may suggest a developing Modoki El Nino. In that case, cooler SSTA in the East Pacific (Nino 1+2 region) would be expected and completely normal.

Also attached are the TAO plots of ocean heat content/anomalies as of  November 9th, which suggests that whatever cool upwelling phase is present, is weak and has a larger stronger downwelling phase right behind it. As stated by NOAA representatives in their ENSO blog, they still expect an El Nino in the coming months, and that the 58% just means with slightly less confidence. Reading the blog, I got the impression that they believe El Nino thresholds (+0.5 deg C or above) will be met for the next several months, but may not last through the 5 consecutive 3 month seasons required to declare official El Nino conditions (that's where the low confidence comes in).

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1866 on: November 11, 2014, 06:29:37 AM »
bigB,

Thanks for the update on the weakening cool pocket, now if you could just arrange for a few WWBs in the western Eq. Pac. it would make my week.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1867 on: November 11, 2014, 06:55:11 AM »
"I wouldn't be surprised seeing +0,8ºC in December continuing throughout spring 2015."

Thanks for your thoughts, sleepy. I think there is a reasonably good possibility for this, too. But it could go on well into next year.

I'm wondering if, rather than a super-El Nino, we may have a super-long El Nino, kind of like the one that went on for years in the early '90s. Are those common in the longer-term record?

Thanks wili. Two year events are not uncommon. The two (or three) El Nino's in the early -90s actually had a few months with negative readings in autumn -92. Then followed by a weak La Nina which were followed by that very strong El Nino in -97.
With the shifts we are seeing right now I think it's absolutely plausible with another decade like that. Or more.

I think things are starting to change on the larger scale, PDO strenghtened, IOD has switched and there are changes in the Atlantic.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf
Look at the CFSv2 Niño3.4 predictions at page 38. They are all, at least in the same ballpark. Which is not the case for the PDO at page 40 or the Tropical North Atlantic SST Forecast at page 42. IF we are looking at a long term shift in the PDO there might be some records coming our way soon. Right now there's also the possibility that it fades out. But if you add heat, there will be more action. And we are adding heat. It's just a matter of time.

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1868 on: November 11, 2014, 08:25:18 AM »
ASLR,

Haha, I wish I could. It would make my week too ;). Whether or not we agree on certain things, I appreciate and respect your opinion. Putting my ego aside and keeping it 100% real, I can honestly say that I've learned quite a bit through your contributions to this thread and forum. There's always something of value in everything you or anyone else in this thread provides. Keep up the good work ASLR.

Thanks,
big Ben

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1869 on: November 11, 2014, 04:33:28 PM »
The BoM weekly indices for the week ending Nov 9 2014 are now available.  The first such attached image shows that the Nino 3.4 has moved up to +0.82 (in line with the NOAA data); and the second such attached image shows that the IOD index is also moving up out of the neutral range (thus supporting El Nino conditions).

....

big Ben,

The climate (especially when it is changing) is so complicated that it is great to have a forum with posters, such as your self, who offer-up unique insights.  It is also great to hear that you are looking into the other folders in the forum and virtually all topics related to the climate are inter-related.  For example the following reference addresses sea-level change [note that the authors carefully follow the IPCC process-based models as John Church is prominent in establishing this process for sea-level change (rise)], and the third attached plot shows sea-level change for an IPCC process-based RCP 4.5 model to 2100 with forecast variations in sea-level change dominated by the ENSO (and other long-term) cycles.  This third image shows that the variation in sea-level change has temporarily masked the influence of climate change, but that before 2030 the climate change trend line (the red curve) will no longer be masked by sea-level change variability.  Furthermore, the authors have left the numerical scales off of the fourth attached image (see the caption below) for regional sea-level changes for RCP 8.5, but this plot makes it clear that North America will see more than its share of relative sea-level rise, RSLR, as compared to the global mean (eustatic) sea-level rise due to the fingerprint influence of the SLR contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, WAIS; which is also accelerated in periods of strong El Nino events (edit: note that the fourth image shows that the US Naval base at Norfolk, VA, is already experiencing greater than normal inundations during high-tides as it has already crossed its ToE).

Best,
ASLR


Kewei Lyu, Xuebin Zhang, John A. Church, Aimée B. A. Slangen & Jianyu Hu, (2014), "Time of emergence for regional sea-level change", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2397

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2397.html

Abstract: "Determining the time when the climate change signal from increasing greenhouse gases exceeds and thus emerges from natural climate variability (referred to as the time of emergence, ToE) is an important climate change issue. Previous ToE studies were mainly focused on atmospheric variables. Here, based on three regional sea-level projection products available to 2100, which have increasing complexity in terms of included processes, we estimate the ToE for sea-level changes relative to the reference period 1986–2005. The dynamic sea level derived from ocean density and circulation changes alone leads to emergence over only limited regions. By adding the global-ocean thermal expansion effect, 50% of the ocean area will show emergence with rising sea level by the early-to-middle 2040s. Including additional contributions from land ice mass loss, land water storage change and glacial isostatic adjustment generally enhances the signal of regional sea-level rise (except in some regions with decreasing total sea levels), which leads to emergence over more than 50% of the ocean area by 2020. The ToE for total sea level is substantially earlier than that for surface air temperature and exhibits little dependence on the emission scenarios, which means that our society will face detectable sea-level change and its potential impacts earlier than surface air warming."

Caption first image: "The blue curve shows projected sea level, the red curve shows the same projections once year-to-year variations have been removed. The grey and black lines show the range of natural variability. The asterisk denotes the time of emergence when sea level moves beyond the realm of natural variability.

Caption for second image: "The likely Time of Emergence (year) for regional sea-level change for a business-as-usual scenario. The warm (cold) colours represent rising (falling) sea level."

See also:
http://www.businessinsider.com/study-says-sea-level-rise-will-happen-soon-2014-10
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 04:41:29 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1870 on: November 11, 2014, 04:38:00 PM »
The four attached plots are for the BoM weekly Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively, for the week ending Nov 9 2014.  They generally indicate a growing likelihood of an El Nino event.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1871 on: November 11, 2014, 05:00:26 PM »
As ASLR has shown, BOM is confirming the steady warming of the Pacific Ocean surface. In the attached, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis figures for Niño 3.4 at 06z November 11th shows that the warming has increased to +1.001 C. This crudely translates to a crossing into potentially moderate El Niño territory. It will have to sustain itself, but the atmosphere seems to be gradually responding.

Michael Hauber

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1872 on: November 11, 2014, 10:11:13 PM »


January is usually the time that ENSO events peak and then decay.  I (and others) have speculated that the decay may not happen this year, primarily based on the CFS forecast and the amount of warm water in the west to fuel further warming.  However the 7 day models are now predicting a substantial easterly wind burst at just the right time - it will be well into January or maybe February by the time it can make its effects known on the surface in the east.

There is may be some similarity to late 2006 when a large easterly burst in late December was followed by a very rapid dispersal of a weak el nino and then a strong la nina, although so far the prodicted easterly burst is less extensive than the one in late 2006. 
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1873 on: November 12, 2014, 12:34:16 AM »
Per the following BoM data, the 30-day moving average SOI has entered its third day with a value of -13.2 (which indicates that the atmosphere may (or may not) becoming supportive of El Nino conditions:

20141010,20141108,-13.2
20141011,20141109,-13.2
20141012,20141110,-13.2
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1874 on: November 12, 2014, 04:41:40 AM »
Attached are the OSCAR plots of equatorial ocean surface currents means (top) and anomalies (bottom), which shows that the NECC (North Equatorial Counter Current) has flipped into a weak El Nino configuration as of November 6th with anomalies now flowing west to east (helping push warm surface water from the Western Pacific towards the Eastern Pacific) for the most part. OF CONCERN, would be the easterly wind anomalies projected by GFS driven models (see the UAlbany plot of zonal wind anomalies posted above by Michael Hauber). Moderate-strong easterly winds back in June are what quickly destroyed the consolidated flow of equatorial ocean surfaces currents from west to east (El Nino configuration).

ASLR,

Thank you for the all the info. It's very much appreciated!!!

Deep Octo,

I'm glad we now have a Nino 3.4 index that updates 4 times a day and seems to show a similar trend in the values issued by NOAA and the BOM.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1875 on: November 12, 2014, 12:41:54 PM »
JMA update Nov 10

Quote
ENSO neutral conditions continued, though SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific returned to above normal and the ocean state evolved toward El Niño conditions.
Although the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions may be possible, it is more likely that El Niño conditions will have developed in winter.
We may have a possibility to make the diagnosis that El Niño conditions emerged in this summer, which depend on the oceanic conditions in the coming months.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1876 on: November 12, 2014, 09:15:59 PM »
Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 12th, the daily SOI value was up to +5.79, the 30 day avg was up to -12.59, and the 90 day avg was up to –8.57. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. NOTE: The daily SOI value under the BOM's base period came in at +5.80 today. Therefore, I suspect that when the BOM updates their 30 day avg later today, it will have moved up (become less negative). According to the GFS model SLP conditions at Darwin and Tahiti are to become slightly favorable (for weak negative daily SOI values) as we head into the weekend. Then by next week SLP conditions look to become supportive of weak positive daily SOI values again. Based on current observations and GFS model guidance,  the 30 day avg will likely continue to rise for the next several days.

The second attachment is the old (November 9th) FOXHOLEMETS.ORG GFS based forecast for daily SOI values (left) and just the last 3 days of actual daily SOI values from the Long Paddock site (right). Notice how the GFS forecast for SLP at 12Z has continued to match up well with the daily SLP readings issued by the Long Paddock site. NOTE: Just in case there are any viewers who may not have been following along, I'm just referring to the GFS forecast for SLP. Not the forecast of daily SOI values from FOXHOLEMETS. The way I come up with the possible daily SOI values is by taking the projected SLP readings for each day at 12Z and then comparing them to other similar daily SLP readings that have already been issued by the Long Paddock. That way I can get a very good idea of what the daily SOI values would be if the SLP readings being projected by the GFS model were to occur. One must also follow daily weather patterns, know the current trends in SOI values issued by the Long Paddock site, and know how well the GFS model is preforming at the particular time of the forecast (or knowing when or how much to rely on the model). It's also important to know that the same exact SLP reading at Darwin and Tahiti does NOT always mean it will equal the same exact daily SOI value (e.g. Tahiti=1012 mb and Darwin=1010 mb will not always equal the same daily SOI value). I believe it has to do with the current trend and time of year.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1877 on: November 13, 2014, 12:08:27 AM »
Attached are the Statistical and Dynamical forecasts of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days, updated Nov 11th. Both models are in good agreement that a moderate-strong area of suppressed convection (presumably the inactive phase of the MJO) is currently in control of the Western Pacific and Maritime Continent with smaller weaker patches of enhanced convection over parts of Africa and the Indian Ocean (presumably a weak active phase of the MJO). Both models are projecting that suppressed convection is to fade over the next 15 days with a neutral MJO pattern taking over the Pacific by the end of the forecast period. The weak enhanced convection currently over Africa and the Indian Ocean is projected to slowly shift towards to east, moving into the eastern Indian Ocean and nearing the western edge of the Maritime Continent by the end of the forecast period. OF NOTE: Typically, one can expect higher SLP and enhanced easterly wind/anomalies to coincide with an area of suppressed convection as robust as whats being depicted by these models. These models have tended to overhype any inactive phase or suppressed convection during the last several months.


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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1878 on: November 13, 2014, 12:50:10 AM »
The following BoM data indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI for the week ending Nov 11, 2014 has moved down to -13.3:

20141010,20141108,-13.2
20141011,20141109,-13.2
20141012,20141110,-13.2
20141013,20141111,-13.3


edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: November 13, 2014, 04:38:05 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1879 on: November 13, 2014, 01:02:48 AM »
The following BoM data indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI for the week ending Nov 11, 2014 has moved down to -13.3:

20141010,20141108,-13.2
20141011,20141109,-13.2
20141012,20141110,-13.2
20141013,20141111,-13.3


That's surprising, but I like the BOM's value (for the 30 day avg) more than the Long Paddock's :)!

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1880 on: November 13, 2014, 08:06:04 PM »
What do we think about latest NOAA forecast for NINO3.4-index? Answer: highly interesting!!!


bigB

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1881 on: November 13, 2014, 10:56:17 PM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 13th, the daily SOI value was up to +7.76, the 30 day avg was up to -11.84, and the 90 day avg was up to –8.32. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Based on current observations and GFS model guidance, we may see the return of weak negative daily SOI values as we head into the weekend. However, moderate negative daily SOI values will be exiting the 30 day avg at the same time. Therefore, even if weak negative daily SOI values return, the 30 day avg will likely continue to rise. Weak negative daily SOI values will be exiting the 90 day avg for the next 3 days. So the 90 day avg will likely either continue to slowly rise or basically hold. The latest (Nov 12th) daily SOI value under the BOM's base period (1933-1992) came in at +7.52. Moderate negative daily SOI values are also leaving that 30 day avg. Since the BOM and Long Paddock 30 day avg SOI values are usually very similar, the daily SLP readings at Darwin and Tahiti used to calculate each agencies 30 day avg could not be all that different. The Long Paddock site not only provides daily SLP readings under the base period that they use, but also under the base period that the BOM uses, and there are slight differences in daily SLP readings between the two. IMPORTANT NOTE: While daily SLP readings for Tahiti are exactly the same, the daily SLP readings for Darwin are different most of the time. I can't say for sure whether or not the daily SLP readings provided by the Long Paddock site under the 1933-1992 base period are the same as those used by the BOM, but I suspect it's highly possible. Daily SLP readings under the BOM's base period are also a day behind, but even so, daily SLP readings for Tahiti match up perfectly. I don't have the necessary math skills to double check, but I feel like I may have solved some of the mystery of why the Long Paddock and and BOM are similar but slightly different (i.e. daily SLP readings at Darwin are slightly different under the 1933-1992 base period than the 1887-1989 base period, while daily SLP readings at Tahiti are identical under both base periods regardless of one being a day behind). I'm interested to see what the BOM's 30 day avg SOI value comes in at for today. In case anyone wants to do some analysis, provided are links (from the Long Paddock site) to the daily SLP readings and values under the 1887-1989 base period and the 1933-1992 base period.

1887-1989 base period: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

1933-1992 base period: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1933-1992Base.txt

LMV,

Highly interesting indeed!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1882 on: November 14, 2014, 01:01:52 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM indicates that (as expected) the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -12.7, which is still supportive of an El Nino condition developing in the next weeks to months:

20141014,20141112,-12.7

edit: here is the plot
« Last Edit: November 14, 2014, 04:08:23 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1883 on: November 14, 2014, 01:39:35 AM »
Provided in the first attachment are the latest (Nov 13 at 12Z) CDAS Nino 1+2 and 3.4 indices (courtesy Levi Cowan), which show (per this data) that SSTA in Nino 3.4 region have decreased some during the past few days and is now at +0.907 C. Day to day or week to week fluctuations are to be expected. SSTA in the Nino 1+2 region have been rapidly rising during the last 5 days, increasing from roughly 0.0 C to +0.957 C. This suggests a new burst of warm water.

The second attachment shows the latest (Nov 13 at 12Z) CDAS global SSTA map and 7 day change. Notice the warm SSTA building the Nino 1+2 region. SSTA appear to be warming directly off the coast of Peru and Chile also.

The third attachment is of the TAO plots of subsurface temps and anomalies, data valid through Nov 12, which shows that our latest downwelling Kelvin wave has continued to slowly develop with a new pocket of roughly +4.0 deg C anomalies starting to build between 140W and 125W.

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1884 on: November 14, 2014, 04:29:55 AM »
There are two big problems with this thread!
1. It's soon 2015.
2. I've become lazy.

But it's nice with the collective services. :)

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1885 on: November 14, 2014, 08:03:01 AM »
This might fit in this thread although it's paleoceanography.

"The trend is unmistakeable, the ocean's primed
for more El Niño events," says lead-author Dr
Jessica Carilli, now based at the University of
Massachusetts, Boston.


Paywalled unfortunately.

wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1886 on: November 14, 2014, 10:34:33 AM »
LMV, that does look dramatic. But why is it so different from the graph now shown on the most recent report?: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (page 26).

I notice that the one on that site says (PDF corrected) after the title, so maybe yours was the result of some error? Is that common?

sleepy, I've fixed problem #1 for you: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg40025.html#msg40025 (but you know you should feel free to start a thread any time.

#2 may be a bit more difficult for me to help you with!  :D (Is 'Lazy' another of the seven dwarfs??)

« Last Edit: November 14, 2014, 11:26:48 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1887 on: November 14, 2014, 12:36:29 PM »
Beeing lazy is actually a part of Sleepy's character: Kind, tired, weary, lazy, observant, sensible, friendly, slow, easy to please, a sleepwalker. I also think he was called Lazy in one movie?

Thank you for the new thread, wili.
Apart from my described character, it's hard to start threads with that fly pestering me all the time.  ;D



Michael Hauber gave a reply in #1881 about the pdf corrected version to weatherdude88.


wili

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1888 on: November 14, 2014, 03:58:35 PM »
LOL.

Thanks, sleepy.

Doing some rigorous, scientific investigation on the subject, I made the earth-shattering discovery that, in the 1991 film version, one of the dwarfs was indeed named 'lazy' (though for some reason, there were only six in that version). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Dwarfs

On the other matter, I'm afraid even with these attempts at explanation, I remain a bit bewildered. Perhaps I should change my monicker to 'dopey'?? ;D
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1889 on: November 14, 2014, 06:56:25 PM »
Latest PMEL/TAO graph making hints of a new weaker westerly wind anomaly to build up around 140-150E.. Let's see if this trend continues for the next couple of days!

Another interesting feature in this graph is that OHC anomalies may have reached +0,2 around 130-140W.

//LMV

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1890 on: November 15, 2014, 02:17:51 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -11.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1891 on: November 15, 2014, 03:47:50 AM »
ASLR, that seems rather...serious. But I'd rather have your take on its significance.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sleepy

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1892 on: November 15, 2014, 07:25:14 AM »
LOL.

Thanks, sleepy.

Doing some rigorous, scientific investigation on the subject, I made the earth-shattering discovery that, in the 1991 film version, one of the dwarfs was indeed named 'lazy' (though for some reason, there were only six in that version). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Dwarfs

On the other matter, I'm afraid even with these attempts at explanation, I remain a bit bewildered. Perhaps I should change my monicker to 'dopey'?? ;D

Ha, ha, please don't. :)
About the lazy part. I rarely register on forums. Before joining this one I always made my own investigations regarding AGW because there are soo much crap and debris floating around. But now I'm getting really lazy, because there are some truly educated members here, pushing papers and information I like to read. I get served every morning with my cup of coffee. Even with paywalled papers when asking nicely. This is the only forum I'm actively lazy on right now. ;)

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1893 on: November 15, 2014, 08:22:07 PM »
ASLR, that seems rather...serious. But I'd rather have your take on its significance.

wili,

Perhaps I am the dopey one now, as I am not sure what seems "rather .... serious" to you.  But guessing that you are referring to the likelihood of an El Nino developing in the 2014-2015 season, I would like to say that I tend to agree with the NOAA forecast of a slow, gradual build-up to a relatively strong El Nino by the summer of 2015.  I believe that: (a) the PDO will continue to become more positive each month, (b) there will be sufficient westerly wind anomalies to keep the Eastern Eq. Pac anomalously warm into the Spring of 2015 (see the attached NOAA image from Nov 15 2014 showing the Eq Pac (from 180 to 100W) Upper Ocean Heat Anom., showing a continued build-up of upper ocean heat content in the Eastern Eq. Pac.), and (c) I guess that by late Spring of 2015 that the Walker Cell will have flipped into an El Nino pattern that will feed a strong El Nino by the Summer of 2015.

Seriously,
ASLR
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― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1894 on: November 15, 2014, 09:55:23 PM »
Thanks, ASLR.

"a slow, gradual build-up to a relatively strong El Nino by the summer of 2015"

I agree, but I consider your judgment much more weighty than mine.

Remind me, is there a 'magic number' below which the Southern Oscillation Index number becomes a particularly strong indicator of El Nino? Or is it just that any negative number is favorable for one and ever positive number is not?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1895 on: November 15, 2014, 11:27:50 PM »
wili,

As far as I know there is no magic SOI number, but when the Walker Cell is in an El Nino pattern then I would say that SOI's below -25 would be relatively common.  Also, per the following link, SOI values can range from -35 to +35:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1896 on: November 16, 2014, 02:16:01 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -11.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1897 on: November 17, 2014, 12:44:06 AM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of November 13th, the daily SOI value was up to -7.26, the 30 day avg was up to -10.88, and the 90 day avg was holding at –8.33. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. Exactly as expected, negative daily SOI values returned over the weekend with the 30 day avg continuing to rise and the 90 day avg holding.

Also, here's a link to recently article from NOAA's ENSO blog, which briefly explains the difference between raw and corrected CFSv2 data:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/betting-climate-predictions

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1898 on: November 17, 2014, 01:41:12 AM »
Per the following 30-day moving average SOI data issued by the BoM today, the index has continued moving up to -10.9 (and thus is somewhat supportive of a possible future El Nino event):

20141013,20141111,-13.3
20141014,20141112,-12.7
20141015,20141113,-11.4
20141016,20141114,-11.5
20141017,20141115,-10.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1899 on: November 17, 2014, 04:40:32 PM »
Per NOAA, the Niño 3.4 region held steady at 0.8 C over the last week. Niño 1+2 jumped to 0.9 C.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 15OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 22OCT2014     21.8 0.8     25.8 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
 29OCT2014     21.8 0.6     25.8 0.9     27.3 0.6     29.4 0.8
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9