Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2014 El Nino?  (Read 786388 times)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1950 on: December 10, 2014, 12:37:12 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.6:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1951 on: December 10, 2014, 02:34:03 AM »
Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of Dec 9th, the daily SOI value was down slightly to -7.11, the 30 day avg was up to -4.72, and the 90 day avg was up to –7.07. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. The weak active phase of the MJO is now approaching the Central Pacific (Phase 7). The active phase of the MJO is currently enhancing the SPCZ, which happens to be almost directly over Tahiti. This pattern is expected to remain in place for for the next several days, and may result in weak negative daily SOI values during that time. Based on current observations and forecasts, the 30 day avg may start slowly dropping again by mid week, possibly continuing into the weekend.

SIDE NOTE: When the active MJO is moving through the Western and Central Pacific (phases 6 and 7), it can significantly enhance convection associated with the SPCZ. When the active MJO is over the the eastern Maritime Continent (end of phase 5) or moving into the Eastern Pacific (beginning of phase 8 ), it can also enhance the SPCZ, but to a lesser degree.

ASLR, I agree that if an El Nino develops during 2014-15, it's likely to be a Modoki/or some flavor of a CP El Nino. Kyle MacRitchie has also mentioned this.

EDIT: As of Dec 10th, it appears that the active phase of the MJO is fading quickly, and may not help enhance convection associated with the SPCZ for much longer. However, GFS models suggest that a weak area of low pressure is to develop near Tahiti later this weekend, which should help lower SLP in that region if it were to occur. We're about to move through a stretch of weak negative to weak positive daily SOI values exiting the 30 day avg. Therefore, with weak negative to near neutral daily SOI values expected to continue (entering the 30 day avg) for the next several days, it still seems likely that the 30 day avg will start dropping by tomorrow or Friday (or at least remain roughly around what it currently is). OF NOTE: The next Kelvin wave in the Eastern equatorial Pacific, is likely to begin surfacing sometime between now and the next two weeks.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2014, 07:51:49 PM by bigB »

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1952 on: December 10, 2014, 05:16:04 PM »
Japan's Weather Bureau declares El Nino. "...on Wednesday it said that an El Niño had emerged between June and August, continuing into November."


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/10/first-el-nino-in-five-years-declared-by-japans-weather-bureau

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1953 on: December 11, 2014, 01:49:53 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.1:

20141110,20141209,-4.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1954 on: December 12, 2014, 01:54:03 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted downward to - 4.2:

20141111,20141210,-4.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1955 on: December 13, 2014, 01:32:37 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM of the 30-day moving average SOI, indicates that the index has drifted down to -4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1956 on: December 14, 2014, 01:37:41 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has drift down to -5.0:

20141113,20141212,-5.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1957 on: December 15, 2014, 12:59:15 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM today, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1958 on: December 15, 2014, 03:36:20 PM »
The Niño 3.4 region rose to 0.9 C over the last week, and is at least 0.5 C for the 9th week in a row as weak El Niño conditions continue.

             Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9
 19NOV2014     22.6 0.8     26.0 1.0     27.5 0.9     29.5 0.9
 26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1959 on: December 16, 2014, 12:43:59 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1960 on: December 16, 2014, 04:24:51 AM »
Provided in the first Attachment is a plethora of SSTA charts/plots from Dec 14th-15th. Notice what appears to be a hot spot forming in the Eastern equatorial Pacific between 120W and 110W. I suspect that this is the downwelling phase (warm phase) of our latest Kelvin wave beginning to really make its presence known on the surface (which should help maintain weak El Nino conditions for awhile longer). Since there haven't been sufficient westerly winds/anomalies in the Kelvin wave generation area as of late, there are no immediate warm reinforcements on the way. In fact, Per NOAA's latest weekly ENSO update, issued Monday, Dec 15th, an upwelling phase is already well on its way east.

Second attachment: Per GFS data (on Dec 15th at 12Z), a strong storm or even tropical depression is to develop to the west of Tahiti, and then track directly over the region. If that were to occur, SOI values would drop like hot cakes (daily SOI values could drop as low as -40 or more). NOTE: This is just a forecast though, and should not be considered reliable just yet (the forecast could change). Also, this would be mostly weather related as well (rather than truly ENSO related). It just seemed interesting enough to share.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1961 on: December 16, 2014, 04:41:34 PM »
The attached plots for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 Indices, respectively, were issued by the BoM today for the week ending Dec 14 2014, and they indicate that the current weak down-welling EKW is beginning to surface off the coast of South America thus increasing both Nino 1 & 2 indices; and that the recent WWB activity in the Western Eq Pacific have contributed to small increases in both the Nino 3 & 4 indices.


Also, I concur with bigB that it looks alike a new down-welling EKW is forming in the Western Eq Pac, which should help sustain our current El Nino-like conditions to early summer when I expect/hope that the Walker Cell will flip into a real El Nino state.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1962 on: December 16, 2014, 04:48:54 PM »
The first attached image shows that per the BoM for the week ending Dec 14 2014, the Nino 3.4 index has moved up to +0.9.

The second image shows that the IOD has moved down, and the third image of the un-corrected NOAA Nino3.4 forecast for Dec 16 2014; indicates that we will likely maintain El Nino-like conditions (or possibly a Modoki) through the Spring Barrier and then may develop true El Nino conditions by early Summer of 2015.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1963 on: December 17, 2014, 12:34:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1964 on: December 17, 2014, 02:20:48 AM »
JISAO PDO index November  1.72

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1965 on: December 17, 2014, 06:18:07 AM »
Just about to report the moderate positive JISAO PDO index value for Nov, but saw that Bruce Steele had already done so. From the looks of the recent PDO spatial pattern, I suspect that December will be even stronger, or at least very similar. Something is definitely going on with the PDO. Whether it's a temporary spike (of a few years) or something longer, I'm not sure, but very interesting nonetheless!

Separately, the ECMWF is beginning to jump on board with a strong low pressure system moving directly over Tahiti by late this weekend. The GFS suggests this low pressure will actually deepen into a tropical cyclone. This may be initiated by an extremely strong SPCZ event. If the GFS forecast holds true, I suspect that daily SOI values will drop into the -40's or even -50's for several days in row. If the ECMWF forecast holds true, then maybe the high -20's or low -30's. It will be very interesting to see just how this plays out, if at all. As already stated, this would appear to be weather related, rather than truly ENSO related. If weather related negative daily SOI values of that strength were to occur, then they would be temporary (maybe lasting a week at most), and once they left the 30 day avg it would jump back up again. Something to monitor.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1966 on: December 17, 2014, 04:27:17 PM »
Just to follow-up on bigB's post about a developing strong SPCZ event, the attached earth surface wind map (for Dec 17 2014) shows the beginning of this projected SPCZ, and if this SPCZ manages to extend to the equatorial date line area (for a sustained period) then the associate cloud cover and atmospheric convection could contribute to improving the likely of an El Nino event.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 05:11:31 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1967 on: December 17, 2014, 05:50:35 PM »
Just about to report the moderate positive JISAO PDO index value for Nov, but saw that Bruce Steele had already done so. From the looks of the recent PDO spatial pattern, I suspect that December will be even stronger, or at least very similar. Something is definitely going on with the PDO. Whether it's a temporary spike (of a few years) or something longer, I'm not sure, but very interesting nonetheless!

My personal belief is that within the next 15-yrs we will see a PDO value higher than the 1941 value of +3.31, as I believe that both global warming and the coming synchronization of high ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (as the AMO becomes positive), will result in an unusually warm North Pacific (and thus an unusually high PDO within 15-yrs).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1968 on: December 17, 2014, 08:22:01 PM »
ASLR: in july 1983 the PDO value was at 3.51 which seems to be the highest ever recorded. August 1941 seems to be at second place with 3.31 followed by 3.01 in June 1941 at third place. Fascinating with two values over 3.00 in the same year given their extremity.

The lowest PDO-values I could find was -3.60 in February 1949 followed by -3.08 in November 1955. July 1950 seems to hold third place having a PDO-index of -2.93.

ASLR, I think it's reasonable to believe that we almost certainly will see a PDO over 3.00 before 2030.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1969 on: December 18, 2014, 12:34:47 AM »
LVM, thanks for the catch.

Separately, the attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1970 on: December 18, 2014, 05:55:36 AM »
Attached is the UAlbany (courtesy Carl Schreck) GFS 180 hr forecast of 850 hPa wind anomalies and precip, which shows that the possible upcoming strong SPCZ event may generate a minimal WWB near the Dateline (marked by the red box). Also, notice the possible TC activity embedded in the SPCZ between 165W-170W and about 15S. This would be just to north and west of Tahiti (the forecast also suggests other storm activity almost directly over Tahiti). NOTE: I spliced together 2 images to make one full image focused on the entire tropical Pacific.

ASLR,

If I remember correctly, a similar event occurred sometime back in March where an active SPCZ generated westerly wind anomalies, and increased deep convection near the Dateline, as well as TC activity, and a falling SOI? 

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1971 on: December 18, 2014, 05:32:39 PM »
bigB,

Thanks for the SPCZ (850 hPa) forecast from UAlbany.  You remember correctly, that on March 17 2014 D.O. (in Reply #253) posted 850 and 200 hPa data showing that the Walker Cell was then on the verge of flipping, and in Reply #255 I posted an earth (850 hPa) wind map for March 17 2014 that indicated an SPCZ that was even more favorable for potentially flipping the Walker Cell as it extended all the way to the Eq Pac Date Line and it induced meaningful cloud cover and convection near the date line.  However, that March 2014 SPCZ dissipated too quickly to flip the Walker Cell, and it looks to me like our current SPCZ will remain too far to the south to have a meaningful chance of flipping the Walker Cell this year.

If I were prone to speculation (which is hazardous when talking about the chaotic ENSO events) about the potential early flip of the Walker Cell (into an El Nino pattern), then I would be more intrigued by the attached ECMM MJO forecast that indicates the slim possibility that in late January 2015 a favorable MJO condition combined together with a possible well timed WWB (a possible equatorial cyclone or typhoon) could possibly flip the Walker Cell in early 2015 (probably just idle speculation though).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1972 on: December 19, 2014, 12:17:20 AM »
ASLR,

Thanks for reminding me of those charts I posted with the zonal wind data. I've attached some updated charts to provide some cross-sectional visuals of what's happening in the atmosphere, and how this compares to recent El Niño events.

In the first attachment, we are given the quintessential, most perfect form of the Walker Cycle in reverse. Lower level winds (from the surface up to 500 hPa) are strongly westerly, with no interruption, from 160 E to about 90 W (just west of the Ecuadorian coastline), and there are strong easterly winds in the upper levels (stratosphere) of the atmosphere. So this indicates rising air (lower pressure) in the east, and sinking air (higher pressure) in the west. No surprise.

However, when we look at 2003 and 2010, the pattern isn't as clear cut, but the Walker Cycle had clearly weakened. Only instead, this weakening is positioned around the central Pacific, and not the entire basin (thus, suggests Modiki El Niño.) The weaker wind anomalies in both the troposphere and the stratosphere is suggestive of weaker events, overall. The last image shows the first 16 days of December 2014. The stratosphere seems to be mostly in cooperation, but the lower level winds have been failing to convincingly couple with the ocean (westerly winds are apparent just east of the dateline, and then only up to about 850 hPa, so this is a bad sign that there is any deep convection taking place.) The set-up looks uncommitted at most. And I don't think it's unfair that we have only the first 16 days of December either to compare (one can use this website: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ ... and see for themselves that even using Dec 1-16, 2002 or Dec 1-16, 2009 shows clearer signs of a reversed Walker Cycle.)

However, if one is inclined, you can also test DJF 2004-2005 and DJF 2006-2007 and see that the Walker Cycles were not impacted much at all. Thus, I would say that this year is quite analogous to those years.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1973 on: December 19, 2014, 12:34:46 AM »
Who knows, our fledgling Modoki may bloom into a full fledged El Nino by the summer of 2015; but for now the following data issued by the BoM today shows that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.1 (and thus is in the neutral range):

20141118,20141217,-4.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1974 on: December 19, 2014, 07:03:12 AM »
Attached are 3 panels from Kyle MacRitchie's CFS tropical wave maps (link provided below), which  suggests that an active phase of the MJO (TOP), a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CENTER), and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (BOTTOM) will all meet up in the Western Pacific sometime in early January. If that were to occur, it would likely increase the chances of TC and WWB activity around that time. NOTE: Confidence is VERY low that this will actually occur as the forecast is almost 3 weeks out. Therefore, it's just a mere possibility and something to monitor. SIDE NOTE: As stated by the BOM and Kyle MacRitchie, even if a full blown El Nino event doesn't develop, El Nino-like impacts are still likely to be felt, and are being felt (I'm paraphrasing).

Separately, the ECMWF model continues to come into better agreement with the GFS model that an area of low pressure (associated with a strong SPCZ event) will move over/near Tahiti by early next week, likely resulting in a significant drop in daily SOI values. Confidence in this event actually occurring, is steadily increasing. Although it (the significant drop in SOI values) would be weather related, rather than truly ENSO related (Meaning, related to weather associated with SPCZ, rather than a break down/reversal of the walker cell related to the ENSO state) it will still be interesting to see how low SOI values get. Hopefully, the people of French Polynesia are prepared just in case a TC does move over the region!

Link to Kyle MacRitchie's CFS Tropical Wave Maps: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 900
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1975 on: December 19, 2014, 11:03:46 AM »
This el nino is well on the way to being over.  Most enso events (both warm and cool) peak around this time of year and decay through the early part of the year.  Trade winds have been close to average in the critical dateline region for close to two months now with the last significant westerly activity in this region ending in  late October.  The kelvin wave generated by this westerly activity is just now surfacing in the far east, and at the moment there is no reason to expect any further Kelvin wave activity to follow this up until we get another westerly wind burst.  We may see a little further warming as the current Kelvin wave peaks, but after that a significant cooling period should set in.

Most mutli-year el nino events saw significant cooling through the early part of each year, with a rebound occurring sometime in the middle of the year.  The exception was 86/87/88 which continued to build through early 87.  It is interesting to compare 09/10 with 02/03.  The 09/10 el nino event seemed to have some legs in the early part of 10, with continuing Kelvin wave activity until February.  However the westerly winds failed from this point on, and in April strong easterly winds set in and a rapid cooling trend set in resulting in a very strong 10/11 La Nina.

In contrast during 02/03 the El nino steadily weakened with a some weak westerlies anomalies in January and a mix of anomalies from February up to May.  By May key anomalies in the key nino regions had developed and it looked on the surface like we were on the way to a La nina.  But a westerly wind burst in May/June reversed this trend and we were back towards weak warm conditions.

While the low pressure system near Tahiti may be just 'weather', it does strike me as worth noticing.  So far this year the tropical activity near Australia has been very quiet.  It normally doesn't get properly going until January, but I'd usually expect at least one or two tropical depressions floating around to give us Aussie weather freaks something to speculate on by now and so far zip.  The fact that the closest thing to some activity has appeared as far east as Tahiti is a hint that when the activity starts it may be mostly a long way east which could mean a lot of westerly wind burst activity.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1976 on: December 19, 2014, 07:23:35 PM »
First, the following quote by the BoM gives a 70% chance that the atmosphere (including the Walker Cell) will start to reinforce an El Nino event within the coming few months:

Quote from the BoM Dec 16 2014 ENSO Overview: "The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months. Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer is likely for many."

Second, the first attached image confirms that while the current SPCZ is strengthening, it will not extend to the Eq Pac Date Line and thus will not influence the Walker Cell.

Thirds, the second attached image shows the ECMM MJO forecast issued today, showing that the MJO will still likely be in the Western Equatorial Pacific by the end of the first week in January 2015, and it will be interesting to watch what does (or does not) happen regarding potential interactions between the MJO, the forecast convectively coupled Kelvin wave, and the forecast equatorial Rossby wave during the early to middle part of January 2015.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1977 on: December 19, 2014, 07:47:09 PM »
Per the attached CDAS Niño 3.4 region (provided by Levi Cowan), the central equatorial Pacific has warmed to +0.901 C as of 00z on December 19th, a likely sign that warm water from the Kelvin wave is escaping to the surface.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1978 on: December 20, 2014, 02:06:36 AM »
This is Reply number 2000 so it is a good thing that the year is coming to an end soon so we can switch to the 2015 folder :).

The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.2 (which is neutral):

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1979 on: December 20, 2014, 07:15:50 AM »
The GFS model now suggests that Tahiti may see 3 separate TC's pass over or near the region during the upcoming week (images included in the attachment are courtesy of Surfline.com). We'll see...

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1980 on: December 21, 2014, 01:01:34 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.8:

20141120,20141219,-4.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1981 on: December 21, 2014, 02:23:40 PM »
According to Longpaddock, the moving 30-day average SOI is now down to -5,80.

ASLR: if there was anyone who would have Post No. 2000 it was you or BigB :)

Latest CFS NOAA forecast indicates decent positive anomalies emerging soon in WPAC. Perhaps we are seeing the start of a new minor WWB?




AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1982 on: December 22, 2014, 02:57:49 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average is -5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1983 on: December 22, 2014, 04:37:33 PM »
As D.O. is a little late in posting NOAA's Weekly Nino index values this morning, I provide the following, indicating that the Nino 3.4 has drifted down to +0.8, which is in keeping with the NOAA forecast:

                       Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA      SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 05NOV2014     21.9 0.5     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9
 19NOV2014     22.6 0.8     26.0 1.0     27.5 0.9     29.5 0.9
 26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1984 on: December 23, 2014, 12:13:56 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.1 (and thus is still neutral):

20141122,20141221,-6.1

edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: December 23, 2014, 05:25:35 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1985 on: December 23, 2014, 03:53:23 PM »
The first attached image is the Nino 3.4 plot issued by the BoM for the week ending Dec 21 2014, indicating that the index has dropped down to +0.86:

The second attached image also issued by the BoM for the week ending Dec 21 2014 indicates that the IOD has dropped down into the negative range, possibly indicating that a strong El Nino is not likely to occur until the Summer of 2015.

The third attached image is NOAA's GFS forecast for the MJO, indicating that the MJO cannot get to the International Date line before the end of January 2015 (indicating that the Walker Cell will not likely flip before then.

The plots support NOAA's ENSO forecast that a strong El Nino will not form before the Summer of 2015.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1986 on: December 23, 2014, 03:56:43 PM »
The four attached images of the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices respectively, were all issued by the BoM today for the week ending Dec 21 2014.  These plots support the idea that El Nino-like oceanic conditions will likely continue for sometime (probably until late Spring or early Summer), before the atmosphere flips into an El Nino pattern.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1987 on: December 23, 2014, 08:50:12 PM »
Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of December 23rd, the daily SOI value was way down at -37.16 (the lowest negative daily SOI value of the year), the 30 day avg was down at -7.40, and the 90 day avg was down at -7.10. This is indicative of at least El Nino “like” conditions. That is, conditions that are still neutral, bordering on weak El Nino. According to the GFS model, daily SOI values are to remain generally negative through the rest of 2014. A few more Potential TC's are forecast to pass near Tahiti during the next week or so. There will likely be fluctuations between weak negative and strong negative daily SOI values depending on the proximity of the SPCZ, and each TC/or area of low pressure as it potentially passes near Tahiti. (NOTE: Last night an area of low pressure passed almost directly over Tahiti, but it did not become an official TC as it was just too weak and disorganized). There are currently two other areas of invest in the South Pacific, which could potentially help reduce SLP at Tahiti during the upcoming week. The first invest is 94P, which is on the verge of becoming an official TC at any moment. 94P is currently located at 13.5S, 158.7W with max sustained winds of 30 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb. The Second invest is 96P, which fairly disorganized and weak at the moment. 96P is currently located at 13S, 176.9W with max sustained winds of 15 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 1010 mb. Also of interest, is invest 98W  of the Western Pacific, which is currently located at 3.5N, 153E with max sustained winds of 15 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 1010 mb. 98W is currently weak, but something to monitor.

The second attachment is of the latest OSCAR data centered on Dec 21st, which shows a portion of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) between 180-140W, is pushing anomalously stronger than normal from east to west (or opposite of what's beneficial to El Nino). This is allowing slightly cooler SST's to flow into the Central Pacific (rather than the other way around where warm water in the west would be allowed to flow towards the east). However, this has improved since the Dec 11th OSCAR data, which showed the SEC pushing east to west stronger than normal from 140E all the way to 140W. The North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) has weakened some over the last few weeks, but has no east to west anomalies. The currently surfacing Kelvin wave is likely helping to disguise the east to west flow (of the SEC between 180 and 140W), and helping to keep things from cooling down too much, but once it's done surfacing (or once +3.0 deg C anomalies have surfaced), things may change a bit. At this moment, NO warm water reinforcements (surface or subsurface) are immediately on the way (i.e. downwelling Kelvin wave or westerly wind/anomalies to move warm water from west to east). There are no signs of a La Nina. Subsurface anomalies behind the current downwelling phase (or warm phase) of the Kelvin wave are neutral with very small weak cool pockets. The BOM's Nino 3.4 SSTA forecast model (POAMA), is now in-line with CFSv2 (though NOT NEARLY as strong), suggesting a brief cool down during the Winter/early Spring of 2015 (but staying warm-neutral), before things start warming back up towards borderline weak El Nino conditions by fall of 2015. Who knows...

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3206
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 387
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1988 on: December 24, 2014, 06:02:38 PM »
Today's SOI is even lower: -38.56.

I know any individual day is not very useful, and that these are preliminary data. But if this keeps up, a string of those low values would start looking like a pretty strong El Nino signal, no?

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

More significantly, the 30-day average is now below the magic number of -8.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

« Last Edit: December 24, 2014, 06:38:28 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1989 on: December 27, 2014, 01:09:52 AM »
Per the following data, BoM's 30-day moving average SOI has not yet descended below the -8 threshold and is currently at -7.9:

20141122,20141221,-6.1
20141123,20141222,-7.2
20141124,20141223,-7.8
20141125,20141224,-7.8
20141126,20141225,-7.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1990 on: December 28, 2014, 12:32:12 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has swung up to -7.4 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1991 on: December 29, 2014, 03:31:47 AM »
The attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.4 (thus remaining neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1992 on: December 29, 2014, 03:22:03 PM »
Per the following Nino indices data issued by NOAA, the Nino 3.4 index for the week centered on Dec 24 2014 has dropped down to +0.7 (and the Nino 1+2, 3 and 4 indices have also dropped):


                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1993 on: December 30, 2014, 03:25:30 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1994 on: December 30, 2014, 02:23:19 PM »
The attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 28 2014. 

The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to +0.68, which is in accordance with the NOAA forecast.

The second image shows that the IOD is increasing, which indicates the possibility that conditions for a strengthening El Nino may (or may not) occur in early 2015 (also in accord with the NOAA forecast).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1995 on: December 30, 2014, 02:27:18 PM »
The attached plots of the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, through the week ending Dec 28 2014, were issue by the BoM today.  All of these indices are down from last week.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1996 on: December 30, 2014, 10:16:34 PM »
The central Pacific is rapidly cooling, if the CDAS figures reported by Levi Cowan are to be believed. The currently surfacing warm Kelvin wave is struggling to beat this back.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1997 on: December 30, 2014, 10:38:38 PM »
The attached slide of the Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. from NOAA for Dec 30 2014, indicates that the heat content in this area has been dropping since mid-November.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18973
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2086
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1998 on: December 31, 2014, 02:18:22 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM today (New Year's Eve in Australia) indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -6.0:

20141130,20141229,-6.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 890
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #1999 on: December 31, 2014, 12:57:52 PM »
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS