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Author Topic: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science  (Read 3774 times)

wili

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http://www.skepticalscience.com/Rapid_Arctic_Warming_Part_One.html

This looks to be a good series of articles from an excellent site that seemed particularly relevant here and worthy of our consideration.

A Historical Perspective on Arctic Warming: Part One
Posted on 28 January 2014 by robert way


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During her most recent Senate testimony, Dr. Judith Curry (Georgia Tech) repeated one of the most common misconceptions found in the blogosphere, that the Arctic was warmer than present during the 1940s. This period - known as the Early Century Warm Period (ECWP) - coincides with observations of reduced Arctic sea ice cover and allowed for more widespread ship navigation than during the late 1800s and early 1900s (Johanessen et al. 2004)....

...Based on the data presented above there is virtually no evidence that Arctic air temperatures were greater than present during any previous period of the last century. This is clearly a case where the IPCC should consider amending its text to provide a more accurate picture of Arctic temperature changes. In Part Two the Early Century Warm Period will be discussed in the context of its causes and origins.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

jbg

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Re: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2014, 09:20:53 PM »
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Rapid_Arctic_Warming_Part_One.html

This looks to be a good series of articles from an excellent site that seemed particularly relevant here and worthy of our consideration.

A Historical Perspective on Arctic Warming: Part One
Posted on 28 January 2014 by robert way


Quote
During her most recent Senate testimony, Dr. Judith Curry (Georgia Tech) repeated one of the most common misconceptions found in the blogosphere, that the Arctic was warmer than present during the 1940s. This period - known as the Early Century Warm Period (ECWP) - coincides with observations of reduced Arctic sea ice cover and allowed for more widespread ship navigation than during the late 1800s and early 1900s (Johanessen et al. 2004)....

...Based on the data presented above there is virtually no evidence that Arctic air temperatures were greater than present during any previous period of the last century. This is clearly a case where the IPCC should consider amending its text to provide a more accurate picture of Arctic temperature changes. In Part Two the Early Century Warm Period will be discussed in the context of its causes and origins.
In terms of temperature data, where are these people getting their numbers and information from? What kind of actual numerical data is available from the last few centuries in the high arctic, north of 60?

Jim Hunt

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Re: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2014, 05:50:28 PM »
What kind of actual numerical data is available from the last few centuries in the high arctic, north of 60?

There haven't been a whole load of thermometers up there for the last few centuries, which is part of the point of the article. Even in the 20th century:

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The observational network is sparse

The latest Judy Curry discussion from Skeptical Science:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/cartoon-climate-contrarian-guide-managing-risk.html

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When it comes to managing risk, uncertainty is not our friend.  Uncertainty means it's possible the outcome will be better than we expect, but it's also possible it will be much worse than we expect.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2014, 06:20:32 PM »
Mostly interesting because it is in a relatively mainstream news source, but I'd love to hear people's take on it (apologies if this or other similar stories have already been posted):

http://www.wired.com/2014/12/nasa-arctic-ocean-heat/

Satellite Map Shows Evidence of a Dangerous Arctic Warming Feedback Loop

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One of the ways our planet manages its heat budget is by storing solar energy in the oceans. In recent years, the Arctic has been taking in more than its usual share of heat energy, which could be bad news for our steadily warming planet.

This latest dire climate update was presented by NASA scientists here at American Geophysical Union meeting on Dec. 17. The map above was made using heat-sensing, satellite-borne instruments that measure the rate of solar radiation change. In the Arctic, the rate of heat absorption has increased by more than 10 Watts of energy per square meter since 2000. In some areas—like the big red blob representing the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska—this rate has increased as much as 45 Watts per square meter....

In addition, the researchers originally thought the loss of sea ice would result in more clouds forming over the Arctic, which would make up for some of the lost sea ice by reflecting back sunlight (the rest of the world’s oceans are covered by clouds much of the time). However, the cloud cover isn’t filling in, and is in fact being quite unpredictable. This is contributing to the overall rate of solar energy absorption.

Atmospheric scientist Jennifer Kay of the University of Colorado, a collaborator on this research, says it’s too soon to use CERES data to confirm any long term climate trends. “Climate is usually considered to be a 30 year average,” she said at a press conference. As CERES has been collecting Arctic solar energy data since 2000, this research is only about halfway done.






"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Laurent

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Re: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2014, 07:07:25 PM »
I think it is in that video that they speak about clouds in the Arctic at 12 min 52 secondes to be precise.
FM14 Arctic heating 15 years of sea ice loss and absorbed solar radiation gains PressConference

jbg

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Re: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2015, 11:46:51 PM »
What kind of actual numerical data is available from the last few centuries in the high arctic, north of 60?

There haven't been a whole load of thermometers up there for the last few centuries, which is part of the point of the article. Even in the 20th century:

Quote
The observational network is sparse

The latest Judy Curry discussion from Skeptical Science:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/cartoon-climate-contrarian-guide-managing-risk.html

Quote
When it comes to managing risk, uncertainty is not our friend.  Uncertainty means it's possible the outcome will be better than we expect, but it's also possible it will be much worse than we expect.
So panic over a substantially unobserved warming should replace reasoned thought? I thought that article was a parody of what is meant by "risk management."

Jim Hunt

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Re: A Historical Perspective On Arctic Warming from Skeptical Science
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2015, 12:48:24 AM »
Hello again after that brief hiatus jbg!

As luck would have it I've been involved in a discussion about risk management over at Judy's place this very day:

https://archive.today/nvWnS#selection-13783.0-13817.90

According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb:

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Skepticism about climate models should lead to more precautionary policies.

Do you agree?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein