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JimD

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #350 on: January 28, 2016, 03:30:51 PM »
An almost perfect storm for Brazil.

Deep recession due to the collapse of commodities and general trade.

Rapidly rising unemployment.

Drought in the country leading to severe water shortages and huge problems in the Amazon.

Massive government corruption scandals ongoing disrupting government.

Zika virus impacting the population and will effect tourism.

The Olympics are here this year and that will truly screw the economy as they are going to lose huge amounts of money.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/27/with_zika_outbreak_brazil_s_slump_is_becoming_a_nightmare.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #351 on: February 01, 2016, 02:24:05 PM »
Hedge fund managers in the U.S. are freaking out, while individual investors remain calm.  Make of that what you will.  (But keep any soon-needed savings in cash.  ;) )

Hedge funds reeling from the recent stock market turmoil are rallying around a hot tip: Buy nothing
http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2016-01-21/hedge-funds-hot-idea-is-to-retreat
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Laurent

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #352 on: February 02, 2016, 10:08:55 AM »
Interesting graphics about economy...

It’s time to worry about the economy
http://qz.com/607162
Quote
It’s a funny thing about globalization. It works on both the way up and the way down.

For the last year the US has been an economic bright spot, in stark contrast to once high-flying emerging markets that powered global growth in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

The first two of the so-called BRICs—the formerly fast-growing emerging market nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China—are suffering through downright nasty recessions. China is slowing fast. Outside the emerging markets, Europe inches along. And Japan remains Japan, last we checked, meaning very little growth.

And now the brightness in the US appears to be dimming, at least a bit. The latest benchmark update on the US manufacturing sector shows activity continued to decline in January, marking four straight months of contraction. The strong US dollar—it’s up about 13% against the currencies of major trading partners—is a key culprit.

But the US isn’t alone. China’s manufacturing sector is shrinking, too, leaving us with the troubling specter of the world’s top two manufacturing economies in open retreat.

JimD

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #353 on: February 27, 2016, 02:58:42 PM »
Woah!  Doggies!

http://mishtalk.com/2016/02/26/world-trade-plunged-13-8-in-us-dollar-terms/

Quote
The value of goods crossing international borders plunged 13.8% in 2015 according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis’s World Trade Monitor. Much of the slump was due to a slowdown in China and other emerging economies. The start of 2016 sports a similar pattern....

It is going to leave a mark.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Laurent

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #354 on: February 28, 2016, 10:37:33 PM »
The economic damage from climate change may be more than you think — much more.
https://engineering.stanford.edu/news/economic-damage-climate-change-may-be-more-you-think-%E2%80%94-much-more
Quote
"We estimate that the social cost of carbon is not $37 per ton, as previously estimated, but $220 per ton," said study coauthor Frances Moore, a PhD candidate in the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources in Stanford's School of Earth Sciences.

Laurent

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #355 on: March 24, 2016, 09:39:21 AM »
Rockefeller family charity to withdraw all investments in fossil fuel companies
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/23/rockefeller-fund-divestment-fossil-fuel-companies-oil-coal-climate-change
Quote
Started by John D Rockefeller – who made his fortune from oil – the fund singled out ExxonMobil, calling the world’s largest oil company ‘morally reprehensible’
John D Rockefeller, who was the richest person in US history when he died in 1937, made his fortune from Standard Oil a precursor of ExxonMobil.
John D Rockefeller, who was the richest person in US history when he died in 1937, made his fortune from Standard Oil a precursor of ExxonMobil. Photograph: Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters

Rupert Neate in New York
@RupertNeate

Wednesday 23 March 2016 21.39 GMT
Last modified on Thursday 24 March 2016 00.15 GMT

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A charitable fund of the Rockefeller family – who are sitting on a multibillion-dollar oil fortune – has said it will withdraw all its investments from fossil fuel companies.

The Rockefeller Family Fund, a charity set up in 1967 by descendants of John D Rockefeller, said on Wednesday that it would divest from all fossil fuel holdings “as quickly as possible”.

The fund, which was founded by Martha, John, Laurance, Nelson and David Rockefeller, singled out ExxonMobil for particular attention describing the world’s largest oil company as “morally reprehensible”.

John D Rockefeller, who was the richest person in US history when he died in 1937, made his fortune from Standard Oil a precursor of ExxonMobil.

“There is no sane rationale for companies to continue to explore for new sources of hydrocarbons,” the RFF, which has relatively small total holdings of $130m (£92m), said in a statement. “We must keep most of the already discovered reserves in the ground if there is any hope for human and natural ecosystems to survive and thrive in the decades ahead.

“We would be remiss if we failed to focus on what we believe to be the morally reprehensible conduct on the part of ExxonMobil. Evidence appears to suggest that the company worked since the 1980s to confuse the public about climate change’s march, while simultaneously spending millions to fortify its own infrastructure against climate change’s destructive consequences and track new exploration opportunities as the Arctic’s ice receded.”
Exxon knew of climate change in 1981, email says – but it funded deniers for 27 more years
Read more

An Exxon spokesman told CNBC: “It’s not surprising that they’re divesting from the company since they’re already funding a conspiracy against us.” The RFF denied that it was conspiring against Exxon, and a spokesman said the claim was “a complete mischaracterization of our program work”.

The RFF’s accusation of morally reprehensible conduct is in reference to New York state attorney general Eric Schneiderman’s investigation, launched in November, into whether Exxon lied to the public and shareholders about the risks of climate change.

The investigation, which has also been taken up by California’a attorney general, follows reports that internal company documents from the 1980s and 90s show Exxon’s in-house scientists were warning company executives about the dangers of climate change, while Exxon was publicly claiming that climate science was not proven.

At the time, an Exxon spokesman said: “We unequivocally reject the allegations that ExxonMobil has suppressed climate change research.”

The RFF acknowledged that the family has made a lot of money from oil, “but history moves on, as it must”. “Needless to say, the Rockefeller family has had a long and profitable history investing in the oil industry, including ExxonMobil,” it said. “These are not decisions, therefore, that have been taken lightly or without much consideration of their import.”

RFF is not the first Rockefeller family organisation to vow to divest from fossil fuels. Last year the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF) said it was withdrawing all of the $45m it had invested in fossil fuels.

However, the much wealthier Rockefeller Foundation, whose endowment tops $4bn, is understood to be opposed to divestment for now.

JimD

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #356 on: July 03, 2016, 04:35:15 PM »
Sort of self explanatory I guess

Quote
Brexit is nowhere near the biggest challenge to western economies.....

In July of 2014, we wrote about the huge imbalance with respect to China’s M2 money supply and nominal GDP relative to the US. At the time, China’s M2 money supply was 71% higher than the US but its economy was 56% smaller, which we said was an indication of the overvaluation of the Chinese currency. Since that time, the yuan has fallen by only 6.8% relative to the dollar. We haven’t seen anything yet.

Today, the circumstances have significantly worsened. Money supply has continued to grow faster than GDP. With over $30 trillion of assets in its banking system and an underappreciated non-performing loan problem, we are convinced that China is headed for a twin banking and currency crisis. Money velocity has reached historically low levels which reflects China’s extreme credit imbalance and its crimping impact on its ability to generate future real GDP growth....

That is utterly devastating. It’s what we see in the US, EU and Japan too, but ‘we’ have thus far been able to export our deflation -to an extent- to … China. No more. China has started exporting its own deflation to the west. Beijing MUST devalue its currency anywhere in the range of 30-50% or its export sector will collapse. It is not difficult.

That it will have to achieve this despite the objections of Donald Trump and the IMF is just a minor pain; Xi Jinping has more pressing matters on his mind. Like pitchforks....

The air is leaving the balloon.


https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2016/07/deflation-is-blowing-in-on-an-eastern-trade-wind/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #357 on: July 08, 2016, 04:08:25 PM »
Quote
....But the rationale for this measure is to shore up an unsustainable mercantilist growth model. As many analysts have stressed, China has for years has had investments and exports consist of an unheard of level of over 50% of GDP. China desperately needs instead to have a much larger consumption share of GDP. But in the wake of the criss, it instead ramped up investments that have been mainly funded by borrowing, with the boost in GDP from each dollar of borrowing falling over time. So the investment-driven model is nearing its sell-by date, yet the economic mandarins are doubling down.

And as Evans-Pritchard outlines, the result of this last-ditch effort to preserve Chinese growth will be to kill its export markets. Germany, the world’s other relentless exporter, is achieving a similar result by insisting on running trade surpluses, refusing to fund its counterparts (which is inherent to running trade surpluses) and insisting that the problem is that their partners aren’t competitive enough and inflicting crushing austerity and labor-squeezing policies on them.....

Quote
Factory gate prices within China are falling at a rate of 2.9pc, further amplifying the deflationary impact. Analysts fear that Beijing is engaged is an undeclared policy of beggar-thy-neighbour mercantilism, trying to avert an industrial crisis at home by exporting its overcapacity in steel, shipbuilding, chemicals, plastics, paper, glass, and even solar panels, to the rest for the world.


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/07/china-destabilizes-global-economy-by-exporting-deflation-through-currency-devaluation.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #358 on: July 23, 2016, 06:03:30 PM »
Oh my is this interesting data.

Quote
Something funny happened when I didn’t look: the global trade numbers were adjusted down. By a lot. The post-Financial Crisis recovery in trade is suddenly a heck of a lot less vibrant than it looked. And it has completely stalled out over the past two years....

...Turns out, the recovery of global trade was a lot weaker than the original data had indicated. Today’s WTM level of 133 is where it had first been under the old data in October 2013! Two-and-a-half years of painfully slow growth wiped out in one fell swoop!

So we did something vile. We overlaid the old data and the adjusted data, for all to see. This chart includes the old data released as of July 2015 (blue line) and the new adjusted data released today (red line):....

This goes a long way towards explaining why the global economy seems so mediocre when the news is always so upbeat.





And this is huge.  One cannot overstate how screwed up this is.  You cannot run an economy on overcharging mostly poor people for prescription drugs.

Quote
There’s another aspect to this “perplexing” economy: Pharmaceutical products are the single largest category in US wholesales, and thus in the goods-producing sector. In dollar terms, they account for over 12% of total wholesales. They’re even bigger than groceries. Year-over-year sales have soared 10%, in a sluggish economy, not because of volume increases, but because of price increases.

Yet, drugs are small and expensive, and shipping volume is relatively small. Since much of the wholesale increase came from price increases, shipping volume has been minimally impacted.

But without these soaring drug sales, the remainder of the goods-producing economy (“ex-drugs”) at the wholesale level has been heading south for over two years, including in May. This is reflected in the crummy US transportation data over much of last year and so far this year. The growth in drug sales due to price increases covers up part of the weakness in the goods-producing sector “ex-drugs.” But the freight data, where drugs play a smaller role, bring the weakness of the goods-producing sector “ex-drugs” to the foreground.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/22/global-trade-meets-reality-world-trade-monitor-wtm-adjusted-cass-freight-index/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #359 on: July 24, 2016, 02:27:24 AM »
There’s another aspect to this “perplexing” economy: Pharmaceutical products are the single largest category in US wholesales, and thus in the goods-producing sector. In dollar terms, they account for over 12% of total wholesales. They’re even bigger than groceries. Year-over-year sales have soared 10%, in a sluggish economy, not because of volume increases, but because of price increases.
(My bold)


I believe that groceries have a much lower markup than pharmaceuticals, so if I'm reading this right, the average American family is now paying more for medicine than for food.


This sounds like a dystopian sci-fi plot.
 The Aliens have infected the earth with a killer virus that can only be held in check by the daily ingestion of a substance controlled by the Alien Overlords. Baby's starve as the price of the elixir is increased, until a hero, with natural immunity, arrives and allows himself to be bled out, so that his blood can be used as a vaccine to save the world.


When does our hero arrive?


Or, are these pharmaceuticals being sold to health insurance providers at discounted rates with the highly inflated figures used to justify rate increases whenever the CEO needs another Gulfstream?


Terry

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #360 on: July 24, 2016, 11:21:06 AM »
Terry

Quote
I believe that groceries have a much lower markup than pharmaceuticals, so if I'm reading this right, the average American family is now paying more for medicine than for food.

See the Green Paty Leader, Jill Stein, on how the pharmaceutical companies captured Obamacare. She wiped the floor with Fox. Excellent stuff.

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TerryM

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #361 on: July 24, 2016, 08:50:28 PM »
Geoff


I was intimately aware of the horrors of healthcare in America pre ObamaCare. It was one of the reasons for my return to Canada in 2004. If ObamaCare is to be euthanised in the near future, some thought must be given what will replace it.


My heavily insured healthcare costs were my family's largest expense for two years prior to my departure, but I was in very poor health on a number of fronts.


At that time and place medical costs were hiked ~ 400% so that insurance could pay 80%, and still break even. One of my neurologist's used to present a bill that showed not only what the insurance provider billed for an office visit, the 20% co-pay, and also what he billed the provider. IIRC the insurance billed for $200, and paid 80%, or $150. My co-pay was $50 / visit & the doctor was paid $52, by the same company. Each visit cost the insurance company $2.00, which was more than made up for by my premium.


The plan did pay a higher percentage of costs, but only if you agreed to use only the 3d or 4th string doctors that they had on call. One visit to one of these quacks was enough to convince me.


I assume a similar scheme is being run today & that this is the reason for the ridiculous pharmaceutical costs that JimD's post exposed.


As a hasty post script:
One of my Canadian neurologist refused to believe that I could have been billed $10,000 for an IVIG treatment in the States. According to him the serum costs &68.00 per vial and such a markup would be unconscionable. Another neurologist who had interned at Sxxxx Kxxxxxxxx set him straight.


Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #362 on: April 18, 2019, 01:23:54 AM »
Bank of England - Climate change could cause $4 trillion - $20 trillion losses:
https://qz.com/1596486/climate-change-could-cause-20-trillion-in-losses-says-bank-of-england/?utm_source=reddit.com
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sidd

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #363 on: April 22, 2019, 11:04:39 PM »
Climate change exacerbates inequality:

"the impact of warming on annual economic growth, which over the course of decades has accumulated robust and substantial declines in economic output in hotter, poorer countries—and increases in many cooler, wealthier countries"

"per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17–31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease"

Open access: read all about it
 
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/04/16/1816020116

sidd


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #364 on: May 30, 2019, 08:08:41 PM »
Taking the freedom to x-post this interesting post from Interstitial to give it it's designated home.

This was OT in climate change, the ocean, agriculture and food so I posting my response in who should be democratic nominee for president in 2020
  Note that the financial "bailout" was loans that, overall, were repaid with interest.  The taxpayer made a net profit.  And the world avoided a domino effect of bank failures that would have made the Great Recession look like a picnic.
If all the banks needed were loans the Federal Reserve would have supplied the money and congress would not have been involved. That is what the Federal Reserve does is loan banks money. Banks made a lot of loans to people they knew couldn't afford them. They didn't care if people borrowed too much money because they bundled them up with good loans and sold them on the market as mortgage backed securities. They made more money in fees the more people borrowed. As long as the security didn't go below the original loan amount, its called breaking the buck, the financial institutions were fine. Once it did they were responsible for the difference. The banks knew this mess would hit them so they donated a record amount to politicians the previous election cycle. When it became obvious to wall street that these mortgage backed securities had too many bad loans in them the market turned down and Lehman brothers was the first institution to owe more money on these securities then the company was worth and they went bankrupt. Problem is these mortgage backed securities were repackaged with each repackaging the financial institutions made more money but also became liable if the security broke the buck. Once one firm went down all institutions that made these securities would go bankrupt. The next day congress gets a huge and complex bailout package to vote on that was clearly created long before the previous day. Before congress is allowed to look at the bill they are asked to vote on it without debate. The bailout basically had the banks identify the questionable loans and sell them to Fredie Mac. Fredie Mac is a quasi-government institution and congress footed the bill. That was the troubled asset relief program. While not all of those loans defaulted and some money was recovered by foreclosing.
So far unwinding those bad loans has cost taxpayers 8.5 trillion dollars.
https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/real-cost-2008-recession-12908/
That still makes me angry.
Except for Lehman brothers all the other financial institutions got off with only some increased regulation. They made a profit the following quarter. A short time later congress quietly gutted most of the new rules.
Ironically in anticipation of all this banks pushed for stricter bankruptcy laws for individuals to recover more money
Elizabeth Warren fought the 2005 bankruptcy act for individuals and made a forceful stance for stricter banking regulations knowing that the regulations put in place were insufficient to stop the same thing from happening again. She upset big money fighting for the common person and that is why I think she would make a great president. Unfortunately I doubt she will get the nomination because she pissed off big money.

Tom_Mazanec

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Ken Feldman

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #366 on: June 05, 2019, 07:04:17 PM »
Investment funds are making money by investing in large scale renewable energy projects.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/05/european-fund-manager-raises-e850-million-for-clean-energy-infrastructure/

Quote
London-based fund manager Glennmont Partners announced Tuesday that it had successfully raised €850 million ($957 million) during its Third Fund investing in clean energy infrastructure projects in Europe, the largest amount that has ever been raised for a green energy only fund with a European mandate.

The largest fund managers focusing exclusively on investment in clean energy infrastructure in the world and boasting over €2 billion in assets under management after only 11 years in business, Glennmont Partners has invested in 192 megawatts (MW) of solar projects, 548 MW of wind, and 119 MW of biomass. Formerly BNP Paribas Clean Energy Partners, before a management buyout renamed the company to Glennmont Partners, the team has been working together since 2007.

This Third Fund (Fund III), which originally sought to raise €600 million, reached such a high level through increased interest in sustainable themes among investors and due to the demonstrated success in investment, operations, and divestments in the assets in Fund I and Fund II.

Quote
Further, Fund III will for the first time invest funds into offshore wind projects across the European Economic Area (EEA), in addition to targeting solar PV, onshore wind, bioenergy, and small-scale hydro. Fund III will span ten years and target to-be-built and recently-operational assets with stable, predictable cash yields underscored by regulated and contracted revenues.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #367 on: June 07, 2019, 01:30:02 AM »
GE invested in coal and natural gas instead of renewables.  How'd that work?

https://electrek.co/2019/06/06/ge-renewable-energy-transition/

Quote
General Electric’s profitability collapse over the past few years can be largely attributed to the company’s inability to judge the accelerating pace of the global energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewables, a new study claims.

The analysis comes from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), which says that “GE made a massive bet on the future of natural gas and thermal coal, and lost,” concluding:


GE destroyed an almost unprecedented US$193 billion (bn)1 or 74% of its market capitalization over 2016-2018.

IEEFA acknowledges a number of “other management missteps,” but claims that “this value destruction was driven in large measure by the collapse of the new thermal power construction market globally—a collapse which caught GE entirely by surprise.”

GE’s investors have lost billions as well, as the formerly most valuable company in the world now has a current market capitalization of $87 billion. IEEFA hits another few key points early in its study:

GE has lost more than a half-trillion dollars in market value since its all-time high of $600bn, back in 2000.

Much of GE’s precipitous drop came in 2016-2018, when it badly misjudged the acceleration of the energy transition post-Paris Agreement.

GE assumed wrongly that demand for natural gas and coal would continue to track global economic growth.

The full report delves into the timeline of how GE’s Power division doubled down on natural gas and coal, and how quickly it fell apart within the past three years, before concluding that global investments must be rapidly and dramatically aligned to match the goals of the Paris Agreement.

bligh8

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #368 on: June 21, 2019, 11:30:36 PM »

June 21, 2019
How climate change impacts the economy


"The Fourth National Climate Assessment, published in 2018, warned that if we do not curb greenhouse gas emissions and start to adapt, climate change could seriously disrupt the U.S. economy. Warmer temperatures, sea level rise and extreme weather will damage property and critical infrastructure, impact human health and productivity, and negatively affect sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism. The demand for energy will increase as power generation becomes less reliable, and water supplies will be stressed. Damage to other countries around the globe will also affect U.S. business through disruption in trade and supply chains."

"if global temperatures rose 2.8˚ C from pre-industrial levels by 2100, and if they increased by 4.5˚ C. The study projected that if the higher-temperature scenario prevails, climate change impacts on these 22 sectors could cost the U.S. $520 billion each year. If we can keep to 2.8˚ C, it would cost $224 billion less. In any case, the U.S. stands to suffer large economic losses due to climate change, second only to India, according to another study. "

"For example, it's not just whether a building is underwater or not," he said. "What's important are the harder-to-define things like when does societal risk perception shift? It may be that buildings lose their value before the water actually arrives, once people realize that eventually the water's going to arrive. We need deeper thinking about the interconnection between physical and social systems."
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-climate-impacts-economy_1.html

bligh


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #369 on: June 22, 2019, 07:10:24 PM »
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sidd

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #370 on: June 28, 2019, 08:23:26 AM »
Burke et al. at NBER with more evidence that the poorer nations are worse affected by climate change.

doi: 10.3386/w25779

Alas, behind a paywall. I give some excerpts:

" We find that local-level growth in aggregate output responds non-linearly to temperature across all regions, with output peaking at cooler temperatures (less than 10°C) than estimated in earlier country analyses and declining steeply thereafter. Long difference estimates of the impact of longer-term (decadal) trends in temperature on income are larger than estimates from an annual panel model, providing additional evidence for growth effects. Impacts of a given temperature exposure do not vary meaningfully between rich and poor regions, but exposure to damaging temperatures is much more common in poor regions. These results indicate that additional warming will exacerbate inequality, particularly across countries, and that economic development alone will be unlikely to reduce damages, as commonly hypothesized. We estimate that since 2000, warming has already cost both the US and the EU at least $4 trillion in lost output, and tropical countries are greater than 5% poorer than they would have been without this warming. "

"global disparities in the aggregate economic impacts of warming are more likely to be driven by differences in temperature exposures rather than in underlying vulnerabilities."

"recent warming has likely reduced output in most districts in our sample"

"we do not find consistent evidence across our sample that recent warming has amplified within-country inequality"

"we find no strong evidence to support the notion that future economic development will protect economies from the impacts of warming"

I attach fig 2. The caption for fig 2 is

"Figure 2: District-level GDP growth responds non-linearly to temperature. a. Quadratic
response of growth in GDP per capita to annual temperature fluctuations, controlling for linear
and quadratic precipitation, district and state-year fixed effects, as well as data source fixed effects
(n=154,244 district-year observations). Blue lines show 1000 bootstraps. b. Results are robust to
higher order polynomials and cubic splines, and to alternate weather data. The main effect from
(a) is shown in black, with the light blue region the 95% confidence interval. The country-level
temperature response from Burke, Hsiang and Miguel 2015 (BHM) is shown by the dark blue
line. c. Based on the temperature response function in (a), most regions in the would experience
reduced economic growth for an additional 1 ◦ C increase in temperature above the 2001-2015
average temperature. Our temperature-output response is estimated on data from the countries
outlined in black"

sidd


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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #372 on: August 17, 2019, 08:20:16 PM »
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/08/15/china-allies-challenge-un-chiefs-climate-vision/
Emerging economies are calling on rich countries to meet their pre-2020 climate targets and ramp up climate finance, at a meeting in Brasilia.
Environment ministers from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (Basic) put the onus on industrialised nations to lead carbon-cutting efforts, in a draft declaration seen by Climate Home News. Observers did not expect the content to change significantly before the statement is finalised on Friday.

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #373 on: August 18, 2019, 12:01:56 AM »
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/08/15/china-allies-challenge-un-chiefs-climate-vision/
Emerging economies are calling on rich countries to meet their pre-2020 climate targets and ramp up climate finance, at a meeting in Brasilia.
Environment ministers from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (Basic) put the onus on industrialised nations to lead carbon-cutting efforts, in a draft declaration seen by Climate Home News. Observers did not expect the content to change significantly before the statement is finalised on Friday.
So wonderful to see the new government of Brazil hosting such an ambitious, altruistic & progressive accord. ::)
Terry

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #374 on: August 19, 2019, 12:45:35 AM »
So wonderful to see the new government of Brazil hosting such an ambitious, altruistic & progressive accord. ::)
Terry

Excellent sarcasm. Bolsonaro has unleashed the the soy farmers and ranchers upon the Amazon, rapidly increasing the level of deforestation.

Quote
Illegal loggers are ramping up a “brutal, fast” assault on the Brazilian Amazon with the blessing of the far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, the sacked head of the government agency tasked with monitoring deforestation has warned ... Days earlier, during a meeting with foreign journalists, Bolsonaro had publicly questioned Inpe’s data suggesting an alarming spike in Amazon destruction and accused Galvão of peddling “lies”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/09/bolsonaro-blessed-brutal-assault-rainforest-sacked-scientist-warns

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #375 on: August 19, 2019, 12:57:04 AM »
Global debt hits a new record at $247 trillion. Global debt has hit another high, climbing to $247 trillion in the first quarter of 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/global-debt-hits-a-new-record-at-247-trillion.html

Who/what is it owed to ?

The future ; Our biosphere ?
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #376 on: August 20, 2019, 07:16:43 AM »
Cumulative externalized costs?
The suppressed combined conscience of stewardship?
The price of insanity?
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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #377 on: August 20, 2019, 09:17:58 AM »
Also expressed by negative interest rates and inverted yields where long term bonds pay less interest than short term bonds.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #378 on: August 21, 2019, 12:11:15 AM »
India will lose 10% of its economy if climate change is not addressed by 2100: Study
The study that makes projection for the business as usual scenario and a scenario where the countries have come together to implement the Paris Agreement suggests that all countries – the rich, the poor, the hot, and the cold ones – will suffer economically by 2100 if nothing is done.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/climate-change-impact-india-will-lose-10-of-its-economy-by-2100-study/story-vLP3tuDnIHUrTVoHyGd6WJ.html
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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #379 on: September 03, 2019, 04:47:37 AM »
Not (directly) caused by climate change, but would definitely impact it if this is anywhere close to true.



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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #380 on: September 11, 2019, 04:10:21 PM »
Why Economic Collapse Will Precede Climate Collapse
http://howtosavetheworld.ca/2019/09/08/why-economic-collapse-will-precede-climate-collapse/
Quote
It’s encouraging to see that the terms “climate crisis” and even “climate collapse”, which even five years ago were ridiculed as doomerism, are now considered perfectly reasonable descriptions of our current state. That doesn’t mean there is any consensus on how to address it, or any widespread willingness to change our lifestyle to match this new worldview. And it certainly doesn’t mean that climate collapse can be avoided or significantly mitigated. Still, it’s a start.
Lost in this new awareness, however, is that our global industrial economy is once again teetering on the edge of what will be a long drawn-out but ultimately permanent collapse. That’s a concern because if the more pervasive effects of economic collapse come first, there’s a good chance climate collapse will once again be ignored as our attention focuses on the more immediate existential crisis of economic suffering.
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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #381 on: September 13, 2019, 10:47:49 PM »
Poor countries will hold the rich to account on climate finance
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/10/poor-countries-will-hold-rich-account-climate-finance/
Quote
Like many climate-vulnerable developing countries, the Philippines prioritises access to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for its climate finance needs.

There are other various international and local sources of climate finance, but the GCF remains the largest and is specifically designed for direct access by developing countries, promoting a paradigm shift towards low emission and climate-resilient development.

The main concern surrounding the fund now is its replenishment. To date, the GCF has raised $10.3 billion, most of which were pooled in from, or pledged, by developed countries – or those considered to have caused global warming and climate change, and those urged by the Paris Agreement to take the lead in mobilising climate finance for developing countries.

Only one-fifth of climate finance going to adaptation, finds OECD
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/13/one-fifth-climate-finance-going-adaptation-finds-oecd/
Quote
Analysis by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – the group representing 36 of the world’s most developed countries – found that only 19% of climate finance mobilised in 2017 went to projects that helped communities adapt to climate change.

The vast majority of the money went to efforts to reduce emissions with 8% identified as serving both goals.

European Central Bank should ‘gradually eliminate’ carbon assets: Lagarde
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/04/european-central-bank-gradually-eliminate-carbon-assets-says-lagarde/
Quote
The European Central Bank should phase out climate-warming investments by preferring green bonds, Christine Lagarde said as she pitched to become the bank’s first female president.

Lagarde, a veteran French conservative politician and former head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is seeking approval from the EU parliament to head the ECB – the most powerful economic institution in Europe.

Answering questions from members of the EU parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee, Lagarde suggested the bank should “move towards more green products” and pledged to “continue to look at that and how the ECB can be an actor in this”.
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nanning

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #382 on: September 16, 2019, 06:58:29 PM »
- Why has there been no success in eliminating tax havens?  (apart from AGW's Dorian)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #383 on: September 21, 2019, 02:25:16 PM »
Fed Rushes to Plug Cash Shortage in Short-Term Loan Market
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/fed-injects-cash-fourth-day-124014326.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/fed-rushes-to-plug-cash-shortage-in-short-term-loan-market/

The Federal Reserve has had to pump some $200 billion into the U.S. financial system this week amid signs that banks and other borrowers were running low on cash.

The New York Fed injected another $75 billion Friday through an overnight repo operation. That followed operations of the same size on Wednesday and Thursday, and $53.2 billion on Tuesday, with each of these prior agreements rolling off the morning after they’re completed.

The actions, commonplace in pre-financial crisis times, temporarily add cash, with the Fed taking government securities as collateral. Wall Street bond dealers submitted about $75.6 billion of securities for Friday’s Fed action, lower than the previous two days’ levels. Many analysts are already predicting the Fed will do a similar operation on Monday.

The capital injection marks the first time the central bank has moved to support the so-called repo market since the 2008 financial crisis.

... There are signs of investor apprehension about future funding levels, which is manifesting in different ways.

Treasury bill sales on Thursday were met with a poor reception, as investors demanded to be compensated via higher yields for locking up cash. ....

-----------------------

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_crisis
and: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/economic-policy-papers/liquidity-crises

Liquidity crises that induce or exacerbate deep recessions, as in 1930 or 2008, are situations in which individuals and firms want to build holdings of liquid assets. Heightened risk, or a perception of it, substantially increases demand for these assets. This reduces the supply available for normal transactions, leading to production and employment declines.

... Several mechanisms operating through the mutual reinforcement of asset market liquidity and funding liquidity can amplify the effects of a small negative shock to the economy and result in lack of liquidity and eventually a full blown financial crisis.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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sidd

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #384 on: September 21, 2019, 11:03:12 PM »
This article could go in a number of different threads, but i post here: Diehard capitalist republicans in the USA are beginning to rethink

"an increasing belief among thinkers within the GOP that the party strategy of pursuing unfettered rights for capital no longer delivers for the American economy, "

"Tucker Carlson’s populist turn on Fox News"

"Marco Rubio, for instance, has written reports on financialization and China, Senator Josh Hawley is taking on big tech and increasingly Wall Street, and Congressman Doug Collins and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are investigating Google for antitrust violations."

"Investors are not starved for capital, but rather productive investments are increasingly difficult to find.  This retroactive tax cut creates a windfall for those who have already invested in capital assets based on past decisions, rather than encouraging future capital formation. "

"Romney is saying that such a cut would be bad for business, because the current finance-friendly model of capital deployment isn’t helping capital formation anymore. "

"the proposed change would accrue primarily to high-income Americans. In 2018, 91.4% of Americans reported no long-term positive gains, while the top 1% of income earners paid 72.0% of all capital gains tax. The average tax paid on gains for taxpayers in the middle quintile is $280 – far less than the top 1% that pays $157,890 on average."

" what is fascinating is to see how petty Norquist looks shorn of any intellectual rationale for what he’s doing. He seems silly and out of touch advocating capital gains tax cuts in today’s world, like the liberals in the 1970s seemed arguing from the premise America was endlessly affluent as stagflation was hitting. There’s a real lack of ideas within the libertarian right, and it shows. "

" Republicans are beginning a shift towards a party that is socially conservative but economically heterodox."

"My best proxy is the quiet collapse at Boeing, which combines a corrupt defense and political establishment, monopolization, financialization, Chinese power, all leading to crashed civilian airplanes. So far, neither party has grabbed this problem directly, because neither has a totally coherent way to understand the breakdown of productive integrity. But Romney’s observation about the role of excess financial power is getting close to the core of the problem."

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the-republican-debate-over-big-finance

Amazing. Republican dinosaurs in the USA seem to be waking up. Slightly and slowly.

sidd

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #385 on: September 24, 2019, 06:42:38 PM »
Cross posted from the Oil and Gas forum:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-47-Trillion-Death-Sentence-For-Oil-Gas.html

Quote
The $47 Trillion Death Sentence For Oil & Gas
By Cyril Widdershoven - Sep 23, 2019, 5:00 PM CDT
Join Our Community
 
The future of hydrocarbons is becoming bleak if plans presented by international banks, representing around $47 trillion in value, will be fully implemented.
Around 130 international banks, all present at the UN climate change summit in New York, have committed themselves to decrease their support and investments in the oil and gas sector the coming years. The banking groups have signed the so-called Principles for Responsible Banking, which entails a promise by financial institutions to fully support the implementation of the Paris Agreement, by decreasing hydrocarbon investments while promoting renewables. This statement is going to be a major earthquake for oil and gas companies, threatening upstream and downstream operations worldwide, forcing oil & gas producers to either reduce their impact on the environment or to seek new sources of investment. It is already becoming more difficult for oil and gas companies to find new financing, and on top of this, a large group of institutional investors, representing a value of $11 trillion, are already actively divesting their oil and gas assets.

International banks, such as Deutsche Bank, ABNAmro, Citigroup, Barclays, and ING, are joining the framework. Under the title of action against global warming, the largest financial institutions now seem to be headbutting oil and gas operators. The impact of activist shareholders and NGOs is sending shockwaves through the sector. If the framework is successfully implemented, the hydrocarbon sector shouldn’t fear unrest in the Middle East, but rather their current financiers.

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #386 on: October 11, 2019, 09:06:09 PM »
Over the past two years, the African Development Bank has prioritized investments in renewable projects over coal.  They announced that they will no longer fund coal projects last month.

https://www.devex.com/news/african-development-bank-commits-to-coal-free-financing-95698

Quote
NAIROBI — The African Development Bank will no longer finance coal projects, bank president Akinwumi Adesina announced this week at the U.N. Climate Action Summit. It was the first public announcement by the bank committing to end financial support for coal.

“Coal is the past, renewable energy is the future,” Adesina told the audience. “For us at the African Development Bank, we are getting out of coal.”

The last coal investment the bank made, which was in 2015, was a supplementary loan of about $4 million for a small, 125 megawatt coal-fired power plant in Senegal that it originally financed in 2009, according to Oil Change International, a U.S.-based advocacy organization.

https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/african-development-bank-to-reach-29-3-million-africans-with-electricity-by-2020-17806

Quote
“The African Development Bank is today at the forefront of investing in renewable energy in Africa. The share of renewable energy in the Bank’s energy portfolio increased from 14% when I became President in 2015 to 100% last year,” President Adesina said. “Our support last year alone provided 3.8 million Africans with access to electricity. And, with adequate financing, we expect to reach 29.3 million people with access to electricity between 2018 and 2020.”

Quote
The Bank has also committed to triple its climate financing to 40% of new approvals by 2020, and is deploying programs and actions to combat fragility and strengthen resilience.
This, the President explained, includes the Sahel region with a US $261-million program; the Horn of Africa with a $281.6-million program; and, for Lake Chad, now seriously affected by the degradation of its productive ecosystems, a US $101-million program to restore the productivity of the basin ecosystem.

The Desert to Power initiative spearheaded by the Bank aims to turn Africa’s deserts into new sources of energy, by working with partners to develop 10,000 MW of solar power systems across the Sahel. The initiative is expected to provide electricity to 250 million people, with 90 million of these provided through off-grid systems.

“We have already started with development of a 50 MW solar power system in Burkina Faso,” Adesina said. “The initiative will protect the Great Green Wall of trees established to protect against desertification in the Sahelian zone, from being cut down by energy-poor households for use as fuel wood. When completed, we expect this to be the largest solar power system zone in the world.”

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #387 on: October 15, 2019, 07:42:34 PM »
The investors of the $13.4 billion University of California endowment and $70 billion pension fund are divesting from fossil fuels.  The reasons aren't political pressure but that the investments are too risky.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-09-16/divestment-fossil-fuel-university-of-california-climate-change

Quote
We are investors and fiduciaries for what is widely considered the best public research university in the world. That makes us fiscally conservative by nature and by policy — “Risk rules” is one of the 10 pillars of what we call the UC Investments Way. We want to ensure that the more than 320,000 people currently receiving a UC pension actually get paid, that we can continue to fund research and scholarships throughout the UC system, and that our campuses and medical centers earn the best possible return on their investments.

We believe hanging on to fossil fuel assets is a financial risk. That’s why we will have made our $13.4-billion endowment “fossil free” as of the end of this month, and why our $70-billion pension will soon be that way as well.

Quote
So what’s the bottom line?

In April 2014, when Jagdeep arrived to become UC’s chief investment officer, UC Investments had a total of $91.6 billion in assets under management. As of June 30, the total portfolio stood at $126.1 billion. In five years, that includes $2.4 billion in value added above our benchmarksand a savings of $1 billion in reduced costs of management.

During that same time frame, we made no new investments in fossil fuels and four years ago, we sold our exposure to coal and oil sands. We found them too risky — and it’s worth noting that Jagdeep joined UC from one of Canada’ sovereign wealth funds in the heart of the oil sands region. We continue to believe there are more attractive investment opportunities in new energy sources than in old fossil fuels.

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #388 on: October 26, 2019, 12:10:28 AM »
The Federal Reserve is in Stealth Intervention Mode
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/03BDDD9A-F676-11E9-8550-0570F53F9A58

What the central bank passes off as ‘funding issues’ could more accurately be described as liquidity injections to keep interest rates low.

The Federal Reserve has gone into full intervention mode.

Actually, accelerated intervention mode. Not just a “mid-cycle adjustment,” as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in July, but interventions to the tune of tens of billions of dollars every day.

Think I’m in hyperbole mode? Far from it.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTTLD

Unless you think the biggest repurchase (repo) efforts ever — surpassing the 2008 financial-crisis actions — are hyperbole:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1186964037034283008

Something’s off. See, it all started as a temporary fix in September when, suddenly, the overnight target rate jumped sky high and the Fed had to intervene to keep the wheels from coming off. Short-term liquidity issues, the Fed said. Those have become rather permanent:

And liquidity injections are massive and accelerating. On Tuesday, the Fed injected $99.9 billion in temporary liquidity into the financial system and $7.5 billion in permanent reserves as part of a program to buy $60 billion a month in Treasury bills. The $99.9 billion comes from $64.9 billion in overnight repurchase agreements and $35 billion in repo operations.

But market demand for overnight repo operations has far exceeded even the $75 billion the Fed has allocated, suggesting a lot more liquidity demand. Hence, on Wednesday the Fed suddenly announced a $45 billion increase on top of the $75 billion repo facility for a daily total of $120 billion.


Here’s the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the branch involved in such actions:

Quote
“Consistent with the most recent FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] directive, to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation, the amount offered in overnight repo operations will increase to at least $120 billion starting Thursday, Oct. 24, 2019.”

And, consequently, on Oct. 24 the Fed injected $134 billion in temporary liquidity.

These actions are surprising. What stable financial system requires over $100 billion in overnight liquidity injections? The Fed did not see the need for these actions coming. It is reacting to a market that suddenly requires it.

... The central bank keeps chasing events, and its policy actions are turning ever more aggressive while it insists that everything is fine. The bank’s actions are saying things are not fine. Far from it.

... It may well be that our financial markets have permanently devolved into a Fed-subsidized, wealth-inequality-generating machine benefitting the few that own stocks. But one has to wonder why the rate cutting and liquidity injections haven’t been able to produce sustained market highs.

« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 12:19:12 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« Reply #389 on: November 07, 2019, 06:40:32 PM »
Investment fund managers are starting to short real estate at risk from climate change.  In the US, the 30-year mortgage is the chief financial instrument that people use to buy their houses.  If the house is literally underwater in 30 years, a lot of people will be defaulting on those mortgages.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/climate-change-will-break-the-housing-market-says-david-burt-who-predicted-the-2008-financial-crisis-2019-11-01

Quote
Climate change will break the housing market, says David Burt, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis

Published: Nov 4, 2019 1:56 a.m. ET

Risk to the housing market from underestimated climate change echoes lessons from the 2008 subprime-mortgage debacle — as does the chance to capitalize on these miscalculations.

That’s the view of David Burt, whose old firm and its timely escape from the financial crisis just over a decade ago featured in Michael Lewis’s book “The Big Short.”

Quote
The first serious market ripples from industry nonchalance, Burt says, could materialize as early as next year.

Burt was a consultant at Cornwall Capital, the firm that made about $80 million when it shorted the subprime mortgage market whose eventual implosion left the housing market in a shambles and lured well-positioned investors to pick through the bones. Cornwall was profiled in the Lewis narrative and one of Burt’s colleagues was played by Brad Pitt in the movie adaptation.