2014 sea ice area and extent data

[crandles]

Since the first week of January or so, winds have been dominantly from the south and transport has been nearly zero or even negative. This unseasonal behavior has caused low sea ice in the Greenland Sea, leading to nearly record low anomaly in the CT graph (near 2003) last week. The open ocean north of Svalbard is also an indication how the winds have blown.

In the last week or so, the transport seems to be starting up again. To early to be sure.

My impression was that there was strong export until late Dec pretty much in accordance with AO:



AO has gone a little positive again, but certainly too early to be sure - especially with AO forecast to go negative again:

though the forecast seems to be bouncing around quite a bit.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,606,990² (February 12, 2014)

Down 26,079 km² from previous day
Down 75,035² over past seven days
Down 9,712² for the month-to-date

774,271 km² below 2000s average for this date.
249,847 km² below 2010s average for this date.
307,174 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (4th day this year in first place)
Fifth consecutive day, and 21st this year, among the lowest three years on record

CT Area:

12,586,177² (February 12, 2014)

Down 34,896 km² from previous day
Down 37,930² over past seven days
Up 105,130² for the month-to-date

771,425 km² below 2000s average for this date.
204,177 km² below 2010s average for this date.
89,816 km² above 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest ever for the date.
Tenth consecutive day, and 12th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[deep octopus]

NSIDC (extent):

14,167,130 km² (February 12, 2014)

Down 30,760 km² from previous day (revised to 14,197,890 km²).

Lowest on record for the date.

This has been an incredulously slow February. No gain (in fact, slightly negative) since January 31st. Starting to think the figures we're seeing now are more in line with what will be expected as the eventual 2010-2019 decadal average.

[jdallen]

Looks like the IJIS/JAXA extent is lowest on record for the 12th by just over 109k.

Yup. I'm not panicking (more than usual) about that.  However, I think that if the chart starts to level off here, in a way past years seem to do at some point, rather than resuming its rise to a peak in March, my "frenzy factor" may escalate...

[Apocalypse4Real]

Decided to summarize this in a blog post and added in the last two years of extent and thickness of Feb 22 images from the USN sea ice thickness and the Feb 22, 2014 forecast for comparison.

Jim, I hope you do not mind, I cited your numbers - with appropriate sourcing/citation.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,630,738² (February 13, 2014)

Up 23,748 km² from previous day
Down 83,243² over past seven days
Up 14,036² for the month-to-date

773,961 km² below 2000s average for this date.
273,232 km² below 2010s average for this date.
313,357 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (5th day this year in first place)
Sixth consecutive day, and 22nd this year, among the lowest three years on record

Decided to summarize this in a blog post and added in the last two years of extent and thickness of Feb 22 images from the USN sea ice thickness and the Feb 22, 2014 forecast for comparison.

Jim, I hope you do not mind, I cited your numbers - with appropriate sourcing/citation.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

Not at all. And very nicely done, by the way...

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,700,630² (February 14, 2014)

Up 69,792 km² from previous day (largest one-day increase since January 25)
Up 33,787 km² over past seven days (daily average: 4,827 km²)
Up 83,928 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 5,995 km²)

723,265 km² below 2000s average for this date.
254,858 km² below 2010s average for this date.
298,363 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (Fourth consecutive day, and sixth day this year, in first place)
Seventh consecutive day, and 23rd this year, among the lowest three years on record

CT area:

12,532,350² (February 14, 2014)

Down 8,617 km² from previous day
Down 73,653 km² over past seven days (daily average: -10,522 km²)
Up 51,304 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 3,665 km²)

868,034 km² below 2000s average for this date.
327,092 km² below 2010s average for this date.
200,455 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (second consecutive day, and third day this year, in first place)
Twelfth consecutive day, and 14th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[idunno]

Shucks! Post 8,001 on the ASI  thread! So i guess, congratulations to Espen, who wins the BIG PRIZE...

Anyway, if I define midwinter as running from 1 Jan to1 April, to make it easier to run through the data file, then there are only 3 previous midwinter dates with a larger CT midwinter anomaly than 14 Feb 2014. It needs only add another 0.015M km2 to claim number 1 position. Currently -1.351M.

Global Sea Ice is predicted to hit annual minimum in about 5 days time. Looks like it will be below 15M as usual for the 21st Century...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

Much of the current ASI anomaly is due to near record midwinter anomalies in Barentzs and CAB...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html

The largely irrelevent Okotsch also contributes...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.14.html

As does the Bering, but note the effect of the current Alaska cold snap:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.2.html

The lagoons North of Svarlsbard and FJL seem to me the most striking feature of current maps...

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,739,569² (February 15, 2014)

Up 38,939 km² from previous day
Up 69,684 km² over past seven days (daily average: 9,955 km²)
Up 122,867 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 8,191 km²)

691,771 km² below 2000s average for this date.
257,680 km² below 2010s average for this date.
289,682 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (fifth consecutive day, and seventh day this year, in first place)
Eighth consecutive day, and 24th this year, among the lowest three years on record

CT area:

12,641,790² (February 15, 2014)

Up 109,440 km² from previous day
Up 98,126 km² over past seven days (daily average: 14,018 km²)
Up 160,744 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 10,716 km²)

756,536 km² below 2000s average for this date.
277,725 km² below 2010s average for this date.
179,080 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (third consecutive day, and fourth day this year, in first place)
Thirteenth consecutive day, and 15th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 15th

The current 1 day extent is 14,361,660km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,263,470km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -918,210km2, an decrease from -997,030km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -187,980km2, a change from -124,460km2. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +29.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +18.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +31.3k/day.

The average long term increase over the next week is +19.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +5.8k/day.

The gain so far this month is the 11th smallest on record. To record the largest February gain, an increase of 60.4k/day is required, while the smallest gain requires an decrease of 9.6k/day.

[jdallen]

<snippage>
The lagoons North of Svarlsbard and FJL seem to me the most striking feature of current maps...

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

Emphatic agreement here, idunno.  I have been watching with a mix of fascination and horror as the pack has steadily backed away from Svalbard and FJL, even as we entered deeper into winter.

Now, the sun is coming back, and the ice is almost as open north of Svalbard as it was in the middle of the melt season.  Extraordinary!  And then, the ice has started pulling back from the FJL as well.  Astonishing!  I don't think most people realize just how!

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,795,207² (February 16, 2014)

Up 55,738 km² from previous day
Up 106,688 km² over past seven days (daily average: 15,241 km²)
Up 178,605 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 11,163 km²)

647,072 km² below 2000s average for this date.
241,491 km² below 2010s average for this date.
267,183 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (sixth consecutive day, and eighth day this year, in first place)
Ninth consecutive day, and 25th this year, among the lowest three years on record

CT area:

12,773,216² (February 15, 2014)

Up 131,426 km² from previous day (largest one- and two-day increase this year)
Up 261,511 km² over past seven days (daily average: 37,359 km²)
Up 292,170 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 18,261 km²)

656,775 km² below 2000s average for this date.
226,886 km² below 2010s average for this date.
139,119 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (fourth consecutive day, and fifth day this year, in first place)
14th consecutive day, and 16th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[Laurent]

It is just a feeling but it does looks to me like an airplane...When the speed is too low...it crashs !!! Just a silly though.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,811,369² (February 17, 2014)

Up 16,062 km² from previous day
Up 132,978 km² over past seven days (daily average: 18,997 km²)
Up 194,667 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 11,451 km²)

655,471 km² below 2000s average for this date.
247,088 km² below 2010s average for this date.
305,304 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (seventh consecutive day, and ninth day this year, in first place)
10th consecutive day, and 26th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[Shared Humanity]

SIE has been growing for the last few days. How strong is ice that forms this late in the freeze season?

[Jim Pettit]

SIE has been growing for the last few days. How strong is ice that forms this late in the freeze season?

That obviously depends on a number of factors--wind, future temperatures, salinity, and so on--but my ballpark guess would be: not very. The sun's coming back around, warmer air is pushing farther north each day, and there's doesn't really seem to be enough time for anything thick to form before it's gone again. Then again, I've been wrong before where the Arctic ice is concerned, so don't put any faith in my words. 

[jdallen]

SIE has been growing for the last few days. How strong is ice that forms this late in the freeze season?

I'd say... Depends.  If it is bottom growth, I'd say no different from the ice it is attached too.  If it is new ice forming in leads, probably not much different from what we saw last year during the cracking events.  Lead ice may be *thinner* by as much as a Meter because of temperatures consistently 5-8C warmer than usual.

Lack of strength did not seem to be a key issue last year, in spite of my expectation to the contrary.  What seemed to make the difference was a cool June and July.  Fractured ice did not seem to play a role, beyond unsettling us all by way of what it suggested.

[Rubikscube]

Much of the ice forming over the past couple of days seems to be ice in Baffin/Labrador/Lawrence area. Many of these places along the Canadian coast haven't seen such amounts of ice for at least a decade, so I fear this ice is highly vulnerable and might just disappair within few days if weather was to turn less favourable. Moreover, the forecasted weather does in my oppinion not favour very much growth of SIE or SIA, the long term forecast looking particularly bad. The Atlantic side might see some growth as the mild southerly flow will be cut of, but it seems it won't take long before southerly winds return once more. In Bering, winds will soon turn eastwards and temps will start rising again, remaining this way out the forecast.

With all respect for the Power of March (which I've underestimated before) I now think new record low SIE, SIA maximums looks quite likely this year.

[jdallen]

Pertinent to that  I Reeeally don't like what's showing up on Bremen's maps.  I really want this to be sampling error.

www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/arctic_SSMIS_nic.png

[werther]

Morning all,

JDAllen, that looks scary for Feb indeed!.

Fortunately ECMWF forecasts the strong Southern flow N of Svalbard to shut after 20 Feb.

This feature has been building up since the start of Feb. Close to the rim of the open sea N of Svalbard, nearly 400km away now, NCEP/NCAR gives a pixel at +25dC anomalous surface skin temp! The mean temp chart shows it is open sea water at app. -2dC. It doesn't freeze because of the strong turbulence/winds.

These winds are promoting strong ice-flow/compaction to the N, maybe that's what UniB reveals as less than 98% concentration all the way to the Bering side.
UniB shows 75% crossing 85dN now... wow, in Feb! It shows on ASCAT, too...the near reappearance of the 'Barentsz Bite'!

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS extent:

13,823,911² (February 18, 2014)

Up 12,542 km² from previous day
Up 190,842 km² over past seven days (daily average: 27,263 km²)
Up 207,209 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 11,512 km²)

659,832 km² below 2000s average for this date.
234,622 km² below 2010s average for this date.
317,102 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest ever for the date (behind 2006)
11th consecutive day, and 27th this year, among the lowest three years on record

CT area:

12,868,690² (February 18, 2014)

Up 92,814 km² from previous day
Up 247,617 km² over past seven days (daily average: 35,374 km²)
Up 387,643 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 21,536 km²)

634,752 km² below 2000s average for this date.
217,564 km² below 2010s average for this date.
118,271 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest for the date (behind 2006)
16th consecutive day, and 18th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[Shared Humanity]

Much of the ice forming over the past couple of days seems to be ice in Baffin/Labrador/Lawrence area. Many of these places along the Canadian coast haven't seen such amounts of ice for at least a decade, so I fear this ice is highly vulnerable and might just disappair within few days if weather was to turn less favourable. Moreover, the forecasted weather does in my oppinion not favour very much growth of SIE or SIA, the long term forecast looking particularly bad. The Atlantic side might see some growth as the mild southerly flow will be cut of, but it seems it won't take long before southerly winds return once more. In Bering, winds will soon turn eastwards and temps will start rising again, remaining this way out the forecast.

With all respect for the Power of March (which I've underestimated before) I now think new record low SIE, SIA maximums looks quite likely this year.

I agree.

[crandles]

NSIDC down 107 k in last 2 days:

2014,    02,  16,   14.40860
2014,    02,  17,   14.38229
2014,    02,  18,   14.30168

lower than 16 days previous, up only 129k since 31 Jan

CT Area up 337k in last 4 days and more than that since end of Jan

2014.1206  -1.3509513  12.5323505  13.8833017
 2014.1233  -1.2575077  12.6417904  13.8992977
 2014.1260  -1.1410263  12.7732162  13.9142427
 2014.1288  -1.1486946  12.7758751  13.9245701
 2014.1315  -1.0763443  12.8686895  13.9450340

seem rather different even though area and extent are different.

IJIS

02,18, 13823911
02,19, 13935082

up 111k in 1 day, up 318k since 31 Jan

While different for recent run 16th to 18th, extent records both say little gain in extent gain in Feb up to 18th.


Two records at new peak, CT area hit new peak 2 days ago. So still seems likely to be further gains before maximum reached.

[Jim Pettit]

Expanding on the JAXA info crandles posted, IJIS extent:

13,939,508² (February 19, 2014)

Up 111,171 km² from previous day (largest one-day increase since November 30)
Up 328,092 km² over past seven days (daily average: 46,870 km²)
Up 318,180 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 16,757 km²)

562,483 km² below 2000s average for this date.
132,145 km² below 2010s average for this date.
198,453 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2005)
12th consecutive day, and 28th this year, among the lowest three years on record

CT area:

12,833,139² (February 19, 2014)

Down 35,551 km² from previous day
Up 246,962 km² over past seven days (daily average: 35,280 km²)
Up 352,092 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 18,531 km²)

705,829 km² below 2000s average for this date.
293,266 km² below 2010s average for this date.
153,267 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (7th time in first)
17th consecutive day, and 19th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[Wipneus]

NSIDC down 107 k in last 2 days:

(...)

lower than 16 days previous, up only 129k since 31 Jan

CT Area up 337k in last 4 days and more than that since end of Jan

(...)

seem rather different even though area and extent are different.

As a reminder, when comparing area from CT with extent from other sources: CT lags by two days

Attached daily differences between CT area and area calculated (in the CT manner) from NSIDC gridded concentration data shows what I mean.

[Jim Pettit]

14,035,877² (February 20, 2014)

Up 100,795 km² from previous day (largest two-day increase since November)
Up 405,135 km² over past seven days (daily average: 57,877 km²)
Up 419,175 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 20,959 km²)

470,795 km² below 2000s average for this date.
37,540 km² below 2010s average for this date.
63,411 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2005, and 2011)

CT area:

12,815,122² (February 20, 2014)

Down 18,017 km² from previous day
Up 291,389 km² over past seven days (daily average: 41,627 km²)
Up 334,075 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 16,704 km²)

717,552 km² below 2000s average for this date.
320,961 km² below 2010s average for this date.
198,934 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (second consecutive, and eighth overall, day in first)
18th consecutive day, and 20th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[jdallen]

CT area:

12,815,122² (February 20, 2014)
717,552 km² below 2000s average for this date.
320,961 km² below 2010s average for this date.
198,934 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (second consecutive, and eighth overall, day in first)
18th consecutive day, and 20th this year, among the lowest three years on record

This is where I think the "rubber meets the road".  Extent numbers, while not as bad (barely) don't adequately reflect this years truly screwy distribution across regions, with much recent increase in areas we know for certain will melt out rapidly with sun. 

I am pessimistic of our chances for the freeze to catch up. Let us hope for another cold arctic spring like last years.

[Pmt111500]

CT SIA [C(ryosphere)T(oday) S(ea)I(ce)A(rea)] for Arctic 5-day averages have now been on record territory for the past 6 consecutive days, and keeping the value under 13. So, there emerges the question will the winter of 2013-14 be the first to stay under 13Mkm² for the whole winter? The past record of 13,1039Mkm² is from some time ago, the winter of 2010-11. This limit has been passed historically as follows:
1980s: January 11th
1990s: January 14th
1998-2006: January 27th
2000s: February 1st
1998-2013: February 2nd
2007-2013: February 13th
2010-2013: February 16th

Average maximum date is March 10th with a value of 14,01Mkm², the day of maximum for 2007- is two days earlier, so in three weeks time we might see whether the limit of 1Mkm² of negative anomaly for winter maximums of sea ice in the arctic is passed for the first time in satellite-measured history. More sensible people may want to wait until April 2nd to announce the possible record since f.e. 2012 had the latest maximum of all on march 31st, and since the deniers might think it's april fools, would this be done on the earliest opportunity on April 1st.

Gain of 16986 km²/day until March 8th would keep the anomaly over -1 while only 7219km²/day is needed if there's a late peak like in 2012. The one million anomaly translates to -7,22% so there's no large drama on precentages. Anomaly of -7,5% off the average would be -1,051Mkm² in the CT SIA 5-day averages and this is still possible, now wouldn't that be something to write home about.

[jdallen]

CT SIA [C(ryosphere)T(oday) S(ea)I(ce)A(rea)] for Arctic 5-day averages have now been on record territory for the past 6 consecutive days, and keeping the value under 13....
<snippage>
... Anomaly of -7,5% off the average would be -1,051Mkm² in the CT SIA 5-day averages and this is still possible, now wouldn't that be something to write home about.

I'm reasonably sure we'll pass 13 meg KM2.  I'm not sure that will be any more useful to preservation of the arctic pack than a large picture of warm spit.

I think what will happen very much depends on April, May and June, and just exactly what sort of "BANG" the melt season starts off with, if any.  In some ways, perhaps even more to the point, I'm wondering what effect this year will have on *2015*.  I see no way that the current conditions can *help*....

[Jim Pettit]

14,078,919² (February 21, 2014)

Up 43,042 km² from previous day (largest three-day increase since mid-January)
Up 378,289 km² over past seven days (daily average: 54,041 km²)
Up 462,217 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 22,010 km²)

449,063 km² below 2000s average for this date.
4,851 km² below 2010s average for this date.
12,397 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2005, and 2011)

CT area:

12,899,013² (February 21, 2014)

Up 83,891 km² from previous day
Up 366,662 km² over past seven days (daily average: 52,380 km²)
Up 417,966 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 19,903 km²)

630,687 km² below 2000s average for this date.
252,468 km² below 2010s average for this date.
143,851 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2005 [1st] and 2006)
19th consecutive day, and 21st this year, among the lowest three years on record

[CraigsIsland]

The more this jet stream stays in a wobbly pattern, I expect even more melt added on. I'm not very optimistic on volume or extent for 2014 and beyond at all. Ugh. Let's hope for signs that this will not be the case in our lifetimes.

[Jim Pettit]

14,064,566² (February 21, 2014)

Down 14,353 km² from previous day
Up 324,997 km² over past seven days (daily average: 46,428 km²)
Up 447,864 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 20,357 km²)

478,439 km² below 2000s average for this date.
34,277 km² below 2010s average for this date.
14,788 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2005, and 2011)

[Jim Pettit]

14,017,261² (February 21, 2014) (Thanks, Buddy)

Down 47,305 km² from previous day (largest one-day decrease since August)
Up 221,954 km² over past seven days (daily average: 31,708 km²)
Up 400,559 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 17,416 km²)

537,537 km² below 2000s average for this date.
107,815 km² below 2010s average for this date.
132,779 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2011, and 2005)

[Buddy]

Jim:

Should the area be 14,017,261 after the ice loss of 47,305?  Or maybe I'm missing something and I need another cup  of java (which is probably more likely).

[Jim Pettit]

Jim:

Should the area be 14,017,261 after the ice loss of 47,305?  Or maybe I'm missing something and I need another cup  of java (which is probably more likely).

Nah, 'twas I who needed the coffee. Fixed. Thanks...

[Stephen]

Any notice how closely 2014 is tracking 2006?  And that did not turn out to be a particularly low year for summer extent.  Of course I realise that thickness (and therefore volume) has declined significantly since then.

[Buddy]

With each passing year I realize just how relevant Dr. Hanson's remarks were back in 1988 about "the dice" becoming more and more "loaded" in favor of warmer outcomes from year to year.

Because of natural variability.....it's impossible to know from year to year what will happen.  The only thing we are assured of is the PROBABILITY of warmer years continues to increase with each passing year.

And the same holds true with the ice sheet.  We are zig zagging our way DOWN the "ice extent/volume" slope to that first day without ice in the Arctic.

It must have been (and still is) excruciatingly frustrating at times for Dr. Hansen to view this "slow motion collision" for so long (1980's).


 

[wanderer]

Temperatures down (still above last years), http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Snow cover up http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/NH_SNOW/

Maybe there is still hope for a cool spring!

But it's kind of funny, how we are hoping for cool weather to safe the arctic - sooner or later the game will be over... and for public attention I even hope it is happening soon!

[ChrisReynolds]

But it's kind of funny, how we are hoping for cool weather to safe the arctic - sooner or later the game will be over... and for public attention I even hope it is happening soon!

The appaling thing about this winter is the ice (or lack of) around Svalbard. There was a BBC documentary about Polar Bears that followed a starving mother and her starving cub over such a winter as this in Svalbard. The documentary tried to end on a light note - but it was unconvincing. There is no happy ending for many of the Svalbard Polar Bear cubs in winters such as this.

So yes there is a serious and distressing down side. But...

I don't understand why anyone is following sea ice if seeing it go distresses them - it's in a death spiral there is only one outcome, and if that distresses people then for the good of their mental well being perhaps another hobby would be best.

I'm an Arctic sea ice nerd, I want a crash, even though I doubt I'll get that this year. Seeing some kind of massive crash-to-zero rapid transition to a seasonally sea ice free state - that would be so exciting to watch I'd have problems holding down my day job. A slow decline may be intellectually interesting, but compared a spectacular crash it's (let's be frank) a bit boring. Or a massive methane release from the ESS, or massive reorganisation of NH circulation in a year, I'm fairly sure that won't happen, but that would be incredible to watch. Nothing would excite me more!

I do what I can, I blog, I don't hide my hard-line dismissal of the septics, I don't drive (unless work needs me to and it's absolutely needed  - my boss knows that), I won't fly. I walk to work and get the bus when I need to travel distances I can't walk. The heating goes on only when needed. Meanwhile everyone I know with kids drive, fly, and have the heating on from autumn to spring. I even know people with patio heaters - I thought I was being wound up when I first heard of them! And the population of the UK have voted for leaders who see extending the lifetime of the North Sea oil reserves as good, and are opening up fracking - as if we didn't already have enough fossil fuels to drive the planet into a new hyperthermal.

So I think I'm entitled to sit back and enjoy the spectacle with a clear conscience. And that's exactly what I intend to do. 

I just don't get the hand-wringing.

(Wanderer - nothing personal, many others have said similar things.)

[Buddy]

I just don't get the hand-wringing.

I agree with you regarding hand ringing......although I would (and do) understand anyone in the scientific community that is frustrated with the slow pace of any real meaningful action.

It's hard for me to imagine someone who saw this coming decades ago.....and then not being able to convince people of it......and then watching it play out in slow motion.  THAT....would be "frustrating" for me if I were in that position.

As you said.....the end game is clear as far as the Arctic ice sheet goes.  Regarding the "bigger game" (the other effects of global warming)........that is still "up in the air" as to what "we" are going to do about it.





 

[Jim Pettit]

14,000,104² (February 24, 2014)

Down 17,157 km² from previous day
Up 188,735 km² over past seven days (daily average: 26,962 km²)
Up 383,402 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 15,975 km²)

568,505 km² below 2000s average for this date.
154,594 km² below 2010s average for this date.
205,920 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
29th day this year among the lowest three years on record

[wanderer]

But it's kind of funny, how we are hoping for cool weather to safe the arctic - sooner or later the game will be over... and for public attention I even hope it is happening soon!

(Wanderer - nothing personal, many others have said similar things.)

Hej Chris - I don't really get the difference of our opinions - but maybe it was just my (bad?) phrasing. I think my view is pretty much like you described your point of view.
Although this summer I will fly... (with a baaad conscience ) - but lets continue this conversation somewhere else and leave this forum just for area and extent talk 

[JimD]

Chris,

I think there, in addition to those like yourself, is a block of people who focus on the Arctic melt because they desperately want it to melt out immediately.  They see this happening as the most likely route to a big change in world actions in trying to mitigate the effects of AGW.  The sooner it happens the better.  It of course is not politically correct to state that openly and it is common to see the insincere disclaimers along the lines of "Oh I hope blah, blah, blah saves the ice!" when its obvious that they want the opposite to happen.

I expect that this intense desire to find something which causes a wholesale change in human behavior is just foolish wishful thinking as there is nothing in our past which would indicate that such a possibility is at all likely.  I'm all for the Arctic melting out not because I expect it to cause us to change, but because I think it will really disrupt global weather and bring collapse forward in time.  The sooner we knock this house of cards down the better as that raises our long-term chances of maintaining some minimal version of a working civilization.   I expect to be disappointed in this desire and that we will still be waiting for the melt out a few years from now.  But maybe I'll be happily surprised. 

[Shared Humanity]

I'm more in favor of a series devastating weather events that hit the developed nations, the sooner the better. A category 5 hurricane destroying Philadelphia would be nice. We could use 10 or 15 of these over the next 3 years, triggered by gross abnormalities in the jet stream.

[MikeAinOz]

I'm glad I found this thread. I've been looking at Svalbard and wondering what on earth is occurring up there. Looking at some of the more personal comments, which I think are highly relevant to this thread, I realize that others share my mixture of alarm and anticipation. This will be an interesting melt.

[crandles]

CT back up

and over 13M:

2014.1398  -1.0888354  12.8990126  13.9878483
2014.1425  -0.9761013  13.0293074  14.0054083
2014.1453  -0.9380707  13.0817108  14.0197811
2014.1479  -1.0007617  13.0371218  14.0378838

only 107 k below 13.144 lowest maximum reached in 2011, 13 days later than latest data. With colder temperature it seems likely to avoid lowest maximum area.

[Jim Pettit]

CT area:

13,037,122² (February 24, 2014)

Down 44,589 km² from previous day
Up 261,247 km² over past seven days (daily average: 37,321 km²)
Up 556,075 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 23,170 km²)

491,770 km² below 2000s average for this date.
156,008 km² below 2010s average for this date.
370 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2005, and 2011)
Lowest February-to-date average on record

[Pmt111500]

I'm reasonably sure we'll pass 13 meg KM2.  I'm not sure that will be any more useful to preservation of the arctic pack than a large picture of warm spit.

FWIW, it looks like you were correct, 5-day smoothed average not yet over but there would have to be a drop of ~275k tomorrow to keep it under so... new smallest maximum record is still possible.
 
totally unrelated Babylon5 quote:

Susan Ivanova: I know, I know. It's a Russian thing. When we're about to do something stupid, we like to catalog the full extent of our stupidity for future reference.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 22nd

The current 1 day extent is 14,544,140km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,481,610km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -870,160km2, a decrease from -918,210km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -40,010km2, a change from -187,980km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 2nd last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +26.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +19.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.8k/day.

The average long term increase over the next week is +10.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +5.8k/day.

The gain so far this month is the 11th smallest on record. To record the largest February gain, an increase of 100.5k/day is required, while the smallest gain requires an decrease of 51.1k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS Extent:

13,989,536² (February 25, 2014)

Down 10,748 km² from previous day
Up 165,445 km² over past seven days (daily average: 23,635 km²)
Up 372,654 km² for the month-to-date (daily average: 14,906 km²)

593,937 km² below 2000s average for this date.
164,588 km² below 2010s average for this date.
252,856 km² below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
30th day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest February-to-date average on record.