Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2014 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 498678 times)

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 551
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #100 on: February 26, 2014, 01:15:03 PM »
The polar vortex is making another visit south to North America this week, replacing Arctic cold with warmer than average temps. CCI is showing a 2.4 C anomaly over 1979-2000 in the Arctic today. Though we won't see temps high enough for melt until about April, it may stymie the advance of the ice extent, particularly since the warmest sections are on the periphery. I suppose St. Lawrence region could get one last winter hoorah, being in the line of the vortex's action.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #101 on: February 26, 2014, 01:18:59 PM »
If you look forward 7 days....the anomaly rises to just under 4 degrees C.  I think the "ice growth" has about had it for the year, and now we plateau for 2 - 3 weeks or so before starting the melt.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #102 on: February 26, 2014, 02:42:32 PM »
CT area:

13,011,2242 (February 25, 2014)

Down 25,898 km2 from previous day
Up 142,534 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 20,362 km2)
Up 530,177 km2 for the month-to-date (daily average: 21,207 km2)

533,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
178,658 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
70,978 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2011, and 2005)
Lowest February-to-date average on record

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #103 on: February 26, 2014, 03:08:20 PM »
Lowest February-to-date average on record

I think THAT is the key to telling us we are close....if not AT....the peak.  We could ALWAYS have another late burst like last year.....but I would not bet that we have another significant surge in growth.  This would be an EARLY peak....but not that surprising considering the conditions as described by many in the Arctic right now...
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1126
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #104 on: February 26, 2014, 07:49:40 PM »
slight niggle, Chris, you write
Quote
The appaling thing about this winter is the ice (or lack of) around Svalbard. There was a BBC documentary about Polar Bears that followed a starving mother and her starving cub over such a winter as this in Svalbard. The documentary tried to end on a light note - but it was unconvincing. There is no happy ending for many of the Svalbard Polar Bear cubs in winters such as this.
since you are factually spot on in so much you write, I think this stands out as a slip.
I saw this documentary too and it was a summer (daylight for filming!) that was shown, starting with the female and cub coming out of hibernation. Male bears stay active over winter AFAIK. Hard to see how there will be much sea ice on the Svalbard coast for bears to get on board after hibernation after this winter, so they will have a difficult summer away from their rich hunting ground on the sea ice, so I am just arguing about a single word. But hey, don't we hang out here because we like to get things right?

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #105 on: February 26, 2014, 08:42:44 PM »
Andreas,

Strange I remember it finishing in Autumn, supposing the ice would come, but that year (2011/12?) Svalbard was virtually ice free.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #106 on: February 26, 2014, 09:44:55 PM »
Andreas,

Strange I remember it finishing in Autumn, supposing the ice would come, but that year (2011/12?) Svalbard was virtually ice free.

... with dire consequences for the bears there.  Their cohort on Svalbard isn't large enough to take many shocks like this.  I'm thinking the population there is doomed, and we will probably see images this summer of bears who have starved, and bears who have had to be shot because of repeated attempts to kill human residents.
This space for Rent.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #107 on: February 27, 2014, 01:06:00 PM »
IJIS Extent:

13,997,404 km2 (February 26, 2014)
(Maximum to-date: 14,078,919 km2 on February 21)

Up 8,048 km2 from previous day
Up 62,322 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 8,903 km2)
Up 380,702 km2 for the month-to-date (daily average: 14,642 km2)

601,031 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
178,291 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
308,763 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
31st day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest February-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,045,662 km2 (February 26, 2014)
(Maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 34,438 km2 from previous day
Up 215,523 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 30,360 km2)
Up 564,615 km2 for the month-to-date (daily average: 21,716 km2)

521,433 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
179,551 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
100,322 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st], 2011, and 2005)
Lowest February-to-date average on record
« Last Edit: February 27, 2014, 02:19:59 PM by Jim Pettit »

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #108 on: February 27, 2014, 06:56:35 PM »
Andreas,

Strange I remember it finishing in Autumn, supposing the ice would come, but that year (2011/12?) Svalbard was virtually ice free.

... with dire consequences for the bears there.  Their cohort on Svalbard isn't large enough to take many shocks like this.  I'm thinking the population there is doomed, and we will probably see images this summer of bears who have starved, and bears who have had to be shot because of repeated attempts to kill human residents.

'tis sad...

Now Andreas has got me thinking I've probably mis-remembered the programme concerned.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #109 on: February 28, 2014, 01:27:57 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,013,962 km2 (February 27, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,078,919 km2 on February 21)

Up 16,558 km2 from previous day
Down 21,915 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -3,131 km2)
Up 397,260 km2 for the month-to-date (daily average: 14,713 km2)

603,512 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
159,438 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
298,320 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
32nd day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest February-to-date average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).


CT area:

13,052,079 km2 (February 27, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 6,417 km2 from previous day
Up 236,957 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 33,851 km2)
Up 571,032 km2 for the month-to-date (daily average: 21,149 km2)

528,980 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
199,647 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
138,849 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
22nd day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Lowest February-to-date average on record.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2014, 04:30:41 PM by Jim Pettit »

MikeAinOz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #110 on: February 28, 2014, 10:45:16 PM »
Thanks Jim, keep it coming  8)
Mike Allen

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1882
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 90
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #111 on: March 01, 2014, 06:09:21 AM »
and... with the CT SIA Feb-27th value inserted in the table the weekly average (both weighted and running) have passed the 13 Mkm2 limit. For fun, I calculated also some longer averages and it looks like CT SIA has some 6-8 days to get back under 13 to call this winter 'the first' in this respect. For practise, made also a weighted system for 29-days (~lunar month) averages, but as the weights are chosen pretty much freely, I wouldn't put much weight to statements about this. Anyway, if that keeps under 13, it'll be the first. this takes a bit longer to see... say a month or so.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #112 on: March 01, 2014, 01:29:32 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,025,372 km2 (February 28, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,078,919 km2 on February 21)

Up 11,410 km2 from previous day
Down 53,547 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -7,650 km2)
Up 408,670 km2 for the month of February (daily average: 14,595 km2)

619,479 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
179,272 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
316,279 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2011 [1st] and 2006).
33rd day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest February average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).


CT area:

13,044,427 km2 (February 28, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Down 7,652 km2 from previous day
Up 145,414 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 20,773 km2)
Up 563,380 km2 for the month of February (daily average: 20,121 km2)

572,269 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
195,875 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
150,998 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
23nd day this year, and second consecutive day, among the lowest three years on record.

Lowest February average on record.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 11:02:39 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #113 on: March 02, 2014, 02:57:26 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,046,933 km2 (01 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,078,919 km2 on February 21)

Up 21,561 km2 from previous day
Down 17,633 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -2,519 km2)
Up 21,561 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 21,561 km2)

601,159 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
215,335 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
480,861 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
Sixth consecutive day, and 34th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).


CT area:

13,047,862 km2 (01 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 3,435 km2 from previous day
Up 18,555 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 2,651 km2)
Up 3,435 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 3,435 km2)

592,016 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
199,244 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
182,916 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
Third consecutive day, and 24th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
« Last Edit: March 02, 2014, 04:16:53 PM by Jim Pettit »

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 998
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #114 on: March 02, 2014, 04:07:33 PM »
Update for the week to March 1st

The current 1 day extent is 14,596,420km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,590,520km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -883,410km2, an increase from -870,160km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -113,100km2, a change from -40,010km2. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, compared to 4th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +7.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +10.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.8k/day.

The average long term increase over the next week is +0.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +5.6k/day.



The extent gain in February was the 13th lowest on record.


Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #115 on: March 02, 2014, 08:57:16 PM »
An additional note: CT area is currently about 705,000 square kilometers lower than it was on this same date last year. That's an area slightly larger than the US state of Texas. Not that it means much in the long run, but I have to ask: where's that sea ice recovery about which we heard so much from Watts and friends a few months back?  ;)

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #116 on: March 02, 2014, 09:27:57 PM »
The talk of "the recovery".....like all the other prior "recovery's"......was just another in a long line of stall tactics. 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #117 on: March 03, 2014, 01:07:54 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,085,123 km2 (02 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date)

Up 38,240 km2 from previous day
Up 67,912 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 9,702 km2)
Up 59,801 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 29,901 km2)

570,989 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
207,433 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
512,744 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
Seventh consecutive day, and 35th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).


CT area:

13,069,660 km2 (02 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 21,798 km2 from previous day
Down 12,051 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -1,722 km2)
Up 25,233 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 12,617 km2)

589,103 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
207,518 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
240,936 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
Fourth consecutive day, and 25th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006 [1st] and 2011).
« Last Edit: March 03, 2014, 06:40:05 PM by Jim Pettit »

MikeAinOz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #118 on: March 03, 2014, 10:29:14 PM »
While I realize that the February figures are not a good indication of the rest of the year, I cannot help but look at Jim's analysis and go Umm...
Mike Allen

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #119 on: March 03, 2014, 10:51:29 PM »
Hi Mike,
Experience from the past seems to be less and less predictive for the future...
'Winter power' is a sign on the wall. There's a good case in supposing the low winter accretion has become a dominant factor now in further reducing the state of the ice cover.
It is bound to compensate a relatively cool summer now. In that light, there's no 'recovery'at all.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #120 on: March 04, 2014, 12:18:44 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,126,891 km2 (03 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date)

Up 41,720 km2 from previous day.
Up 126,789 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 18,113 km2)
Up 101,521 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 33,840 km2)

538,368 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
191,943 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
569,054 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2011 [1st], 2006, and 2007).

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011 [1st] and 2006).

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #121 on: March 05, 2014, 12:38:20 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,178,931 km2 (04 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date)

Up 52,038 km2 from previous day.
Up 189,575 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 27,082 km2)
Up 153,559 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 38,390 km2)

490,521 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
154,356 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
520,786 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2011 [1st], 2006, and 2007).

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011 [1st] 2006, and 2007).

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2512
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #122 on: March 06, 2014, 02:29:28 AM »
CT area now 130k below peak of 9 days previous:

 2014.1453  -0.9380707  13.0817108  14.0197811 peak so for this year: 13.082
 2014.1479  -1.0007617  13.0371218  14.0378838
 2014.1506  -1.0386969  13.0112238  14.0499210
 2014.1534  -1.0061711  13.0456619  14.0518332
 2014.1561  -1.0137330  13.0520792  14.0658121
 2014.1589  -1.0422959  13.0444269  14.0867224
 2014.1616  -1.0496935  13.0478621  14.0975552
 2014.1644  -1.0384717  13.0696602  14.1081324
 2014.1671  -1.1962153  12.9146032  14.1108189
 2014.1699  -1.1607057  12.9518299  14.1125355 (79-08 climatology peak day)

Second lowest behind 2011 for this day
2011.1699  -1.1964122  12.9161234  14.1125355

below 2006:
2006.1699  -1.1210605  12.9914751  14.1125355

Previous lowest maximum  2011.1836 13.144

Having reached peak day for 79 to 08 average and 130k below peak, chances of having passed peak with lowest maximum on record would seem to have received quite a boost. OTOH it could be quite cold for the next week.

Edit
thanks idunno for catching error now struck out.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2014, 12:45:11 PM by crandles »

idunno

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 185
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #123 on: March 06, 2014, 06:17:38 AM »
Hi crandles,

Climate 1979-2008 average undulates a bit. Peak is actually day xxxx.1891, in about a week.

Century break (155k) of 3 March is mainly confined to Okotsch and Bering. Anybody notice any wierd weather in the Pacific?

Is this a record early century break?

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1882
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 90
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #124 on: March 06, 2014, 06:54:02 AM »
the large drop in CT SIA in last two days kept the 13-day running average under 13Mkm2. The value for Feb-26th is 12,999971Mkm2, which I'm very inclined to round up. The missing 29km2 would make 464px in the 250m resolution image. 13Mkm2 is 208000000 pixels. I guess that amount of misinterpretation (2,23px/1000000px) fits in their error limit.

If the peak was there this would be the 7th (sorry, missed two at the first go)earliest peak (tied with 3 other years) in the 5-day smooth record. Earlier peaks have occurred in 2007, 2002, 1998, 1997, 1996 and 1987. (modified to load a better? version of the image)

(modified) added an image of the whole record (1979-2013) peak distribution. Assuming peak times follow normal distribution there looks to be room for a peak on day 75-79 (March 15-19) ;-) (oops, now that I think I got it better it's March 14-18, the 2-sigma limit should include the extreme values in dataset this small). But really the weather swings are too large, f.e. who could have guessed the 2013 late peak this early?

(modified 2014.03.07) added an image of  'approximate manual fit' to normal distribution (excuse is lazy days). the actual peak in normal distribution appears to be on day 69, the day after tomorrow (the scientific quality of the film is directly related to the quality of math in this analysis (note how thick the normal distribution curve is, this hides the errors somewhat)

« Last Edit: March 08, 2014, 05:07:51 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #125 on: March 06, 2014, 12:40:49 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,222,704 km2 (05 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date)

Up 43,773 km2 from previous day.
Up 225,300 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 32,186 km2)
Up 97,332 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 39,466 km2)

440,954 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
122,998 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
418,479 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011, 2006, and 2007).


CT area:

13,019,305 km2 (05 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 67,475 km2 from previous day
Down 26,357 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -3,765 km2)
Down 25,122 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -5,024 km2)

709,757 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
340,515 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
594,512 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2011 and 2006).
Seventh consecutive day, and 28th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011 and 2006).
« Last Edit: March 06, 2014, 04:01:56 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #126 on: March 06, 2014, 12:57:15 PM »
Is this a record early century break?

It is one of the larger drops we've seen for so early in the year; in fact, it's the largest single-day decrease in CT area since 2003 to occur prior to this same date. But it's not quite a record.

1988: -205k (Day 57)
1989: -175k (Day 31)
1997: -158k (Day 52)
1999: -159k (Day 61)
2003: -167k (Day 24)

Also:
1989: -349k (Days 42-44)
1993: -369k (Days 44-47)
1999: -277k (Days 61-62)
2012: -266k (Days 17-18)

lanevn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #127 on: March 07, 2014, 09:27:59 AM »
where is the source of ct area data?

MikeAinOz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #128 on: March 07, 2014, 09:57:10 AM »
lanevn: CT data links are at the top of the graphs page, here is area (I hope) http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

Looking at the various prognosticators on the thread I come to the conclusion that is highly likely that we have reached the maximum, if not passed it. What say you wise persons?
Mike Allen

lanevn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #129 on: March 07, 2014, 11:43:41 AM »
thanks

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #130 on: March 07, 2014, 12:10:05 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,255,140 km2 (06 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date)

Up 32,436 km2 from previous day.
Up 241,178 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 34,454 km2)
Up 229,768 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 38,295 km2)

413,442 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
127,898 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
409,807 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #131 on: March 07, 2014, 12:15:30 PM »
Looking at the various prognosticators on the thread I come to the conclusion that is highly likely that we have reached the maximum, if not passed it. What say you wise persons?

Well, anything is possible with Arctic sea ice--as we've all discovered the hard way--but given that a) CT area is only about 62k square kilometers lower than 23 February's peak-to-date*, and b) JAXA extent has now increased for nine consecutive days, I wouldn't put much money on the chance that either area or extent have reached their respective annual maxima. No, not much money at all...

* - If the 0.1753 CT area increase is as large as that seen on 0.1726, a new yearly maximum will have been reached.

P.S. -- Of course the day following this comment would see the largest drop since August, followed a day later by the largest drop since July. Hence the "anything is possible with Arctic sea ice" disclaimer...  ;)
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 02:46:46 PM by Jim Pettit »

MikeAinOz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #132 on: March 07, 2014, 11:08:49 PM »
Thanks Jim, I can see a little better where your mind is at, the JAXA extent is certainly interesting. I've been trying to figure out where extent is likely to grow. My conclusion is that Baffin/Newfoundland Bay may have a late run and maybe the Arctic Basin. This is just my subjective assessment based on eyeballing the graphs and a couple of years of watching. Looking for cause of the effect I conclude that Bering and Barensz have reached end game. Greenland Sea, I have no idea, it's the Joker in the extent pack.
Mike Allen

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1882
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 90
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #133 on: March 08, 2014, 05:09:40 AM »
 http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/the-nenana-ice-classic-and-climate/ states 2013 was almost a 3-sigma event (0,7-0,2% to be exact) with respect to ice out in Nenana region. If, and that's a big if, this is valid for the whole arctic too, the central peak date moves to three days earlier, and the most probable date for this years' peak, would move to the earlier side of the bell curve, to 4th-5th of March. We then would have passed the CT SIA area maximum already. But Jim's caveats apply of course. 35 data points for fitting a bell curve isn't very 'safe science'. This is why the very heavy mod in the last post third image.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2014, 05:56:21 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #134 on: March 08, 2014, 01:16:33 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,204,128 km2 (07 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,255,140 km2 06 March, 2014)

Down 51,012 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: largest one-day decrease this year)
Up 178,756 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 25,537 km2)
Up 178,756 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 25,537 km2)

466,220 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
195,476 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
504,958 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date (behind 2006, 2007, and 2011).

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).


CT area:

13,057,681 km2 (07 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 45,529 km2 from previous day
Up 13,254 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 1,893 km2)
Up 13,254 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 1,893 km2)

661,056 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
366,312 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
607,437 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest ever for the date (behind 2011 and 2006).
Ninth consecutive day, and 30th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011 and 2006).
« Last Edit: March 08, 2014, 08:04:56 PM by Jim Pettit »

Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 338
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #135 on: March 08, 2014, 05:45:21 PM »
CT area:

13,057,681 km2 (07 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Up 45,529 km2 from previous day
Up 13,254 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 1,893 km2)
Down 13,254 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 1,893 km2)
!?

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #136 on: March 08, 2014, 08:15:15 PM »
CT area:
Down 13,254 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 1,893 km2)
!?
Oh, man, I did that again? That's supposed to say "down", not "up". I've fixed it. Small difference, but still. Thanks...

davidsanger

  • New ice
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #137 on: March 09, 2014, 06:58:26 AM »
I wouldn't put much money on the chance that either area or extent have reached their respective annual maxima. No, not much money at all...

After today's century drop in JAXA (-120K to 14,083,339 km2) I see there's never before been a recovery after a century drop in March. Extent now second lowest for the date, just 40K above the 2006 figure

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #138 on: March 09, 2014, 10:31:55 AM »
I wouldn't put much money on the chance that either area or extent have reached their respective annual maxima. No, not much money at all...

After today's century drop in JAXA (-120K to 14,083,339 km2) I see there's never before been a recovery after a century drop in March. Extent now second lowest for the date, just 40K above the 2006 figure

A century drop, at this time of the year, frankly takes ones breath away.
This space for Rent.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #139 on: March 09, 2014, 02:38:31 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,083,339 km2 (08 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,255,140 km2 06 March, 2014)

Down 120,789 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: largest one-day decrease since 17 July 2013)
Up 36,406 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 5,201 km2)
Up 57,967 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 7,246 km2)

585,309 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
289,719 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
523,218 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Second lowest for the date (behind 2006).
36th day this year among the lowest three years on record.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #140 on: March 09, 2014, 02:41:36 PM »
<<Down 120,789 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: largest one-day decrease since 17 July 2013)>>

One word:  WOW
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2512
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #141 on: March 09, 2014, 02:46:29 PM »
Recent NSIDC extent maximums 1996 onwards:

2011,    03,  07,   14.67084
2007,    02,  24,   14.72423
2006,    03,  11,   14.73298
2014,    03,  06,   14.75613 so far
2005,    03,  12,   14.94615
2009,    03,  06,   15.11281
2013,    03,  14,   15.14275
2012,    03,  04,   15.25102
2004,    03,  10,   15.25548
2010,    03,  31,   15.28449
2008,    02,  27,   15.30522
1996,    02,  21,   15.42074
2000,    03,  03,   15.44482
1999,    03,  30,   15.55755
2002,    03,  11,   15.56505
2003,    03,  21,   15.58678
1997,    03,  20,   15.63647
2001,    03,  04,   15.66664
1998,    02,  26,   15.97947

So not a record low by this measure this year. Looks like a reasonable chance we won't go higher than 4th because current 14.68532 is quite a way below 14.94615 OTOH there could be some cold weather coming in a couple of days time which might last a few days.

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #142 on: March 09, 2014, 02:51:48 PM »
I think it is now very safe to assume that the 2014 Maximum Extent will be the 4th lowest on record (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).  It would take a gain of over 312K km2 for this not to happen.

Also, it is quite probable that the peak for 2014 will be 1,4255,140 km2 which occurred on March 6th, since the drop of the last two days has been 171,801 km2.

I believe it was Werther that predicted that the peak would be March 5th.  That was a very prescient prediction.  Good call Werther!!

 
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2512
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #143 on: March 09, 2014, 03:08:28 PM »
To pass NSIDC 4th lowest extent maximum
2005,    03,  12,   14.94615

from current 14.52682 (after 158k drop) would require a 420k increase which does look like a lot.

Largest gains I have found recently from 8th March are 344k in 1999 and 324k in 1997.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 03:15:11 PM by crandles »

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 998
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #144 on: March 09, 2014, 04:22:30 PM »
Update for the week to March 8th

The current 1 day extent is 14,526,820km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,674,830km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -954,690km2, an increase from -883,410km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -262,620km2, a change from -113,100km2. We're currently lowest on record, compared to 3rd lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -9.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +0.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.6k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -6.8k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +1.1k/day.

The change so far this month is the 7th most negative on record. The record the largest March gain, at least +23.4k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -29.8k/day for the remainder of the month.


Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #145 on: March 09, 2014, 04:32:11 PM »
A little late coming in, so I'm adding this as a separate entry:

CT area:

13,041,934 km2 (08 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Down 15,747 km2 from previous day
Down 5,938 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -847 km2)
Down 2,493 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -312 km2)

694,052 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
391,090 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
591,534 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date.
Tenth consecutive day, and 31st this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011 and 2006).

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 1177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #146 on: March 10, 2014, 12:19:37 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,015,926 km2 (09 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,255,140 km2 06 March, 2014)

Down 67,413 km2 from previous day.
Down 69,247 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -9,892 km2)
Down 9,446 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -1,050 km2)

645,037 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
319,847 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
501,635 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date.
Second consecutive day, and the 36th this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2006, 2011, and 2007).


CT area:

12,956,657 km2 (09 March, 2014)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,081,711 km2 on February 23)

Down 85,278 km2 from previous day
Down 113,004 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -16,143 km2)
Down 87,770 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -9,752 km2)

756,586 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
464,561 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
652,763 km2 below 2012 value for this date. (NOTE: that's an area roughly three times as large as the US state of Utah.)

Lowest ever for the date.
11th consecutive day, and 32nd this year, among the lowest three years on record.

Third lowest March-to-date average on record (behind 2011 and 2006).
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 05:56:36 PM by Jim Pettit »

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #147 on: March 10, 2014, 12:28:26 PM »
<<Lowest ever for the date (behind 2006).>>

Jim....just a quick correction.

And also a big THANK YOU for putting out this info every day.  Especially this year....it is going to be a "tipping point" year with regards to global warming.  Thanks again...
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

MikeAinOz

  • New ice
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #148 on: March 10, 2014, 09:54:53 PM »
Absolutely awesome Jim. Winter has truly lost it's power in the Arctic this year.
Mike Allen

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #149 on: March 10, 2014, 10:39:03 PM »


As in previous years, I periodically plot Extent in time periods anywhere from 6 weeks to 3 months to show the currents year's position relative to selected previous years.

It's that time of year when the annual maximum is reached, however, it is far too early to prognosticate what the September minimum will be.  As this chart shows, 2012 was anomalously high during March and we all know what happened that year.

What this chart clearly shows is that "2014 Was Not A RECOVERY!"

It also shows that the true decline in Extent does not begin unitl early April.

I will periodically post a chart linke this from time to time.  Any suggestions as to how to make it more useful are welcome.

"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama