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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #250 on: March 24, 2014, 06:01:02 PM »
A generous man would have made enough stew for everyone.

I did. But then I ended up being forced to eat every bit of it myself. :-\

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #251 on: March 25, 2014, 10:57:07 AM »
IJIS Extent:

14,079,938 km2 (24 March)
(2014 maximum to-date: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 76,126 km2 from previous day.
Down 339,256 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -48,465 km2)
Up 54,566 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 2,274 km2)

372,239 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
177,801 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
431,789 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fifth lowest for the date.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,323,587 km2 (24 March)
(2014 maximum to-date: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March. If it stands [and I'll go on record as saying that it will], this would be the fifth lowest maximum on record.)

Down 114,645 km2 from previous day
Down 78,734 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -11,248 km2)
Up 279,160 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 11,632 km2)

183,298 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
16,905 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
252,213 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Sixth lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2014, 01:10:06 PM by Jim Pettit »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #252 on: March 25, 2014, 03:18:02 PM »
The spring sprint of 2014 was truly pretty exceptional on CT SIA, there are but 3 as large swings about this time of year, and this was the largest one going up. Not calling the maximum yet. The stats is a nice tool but what to think of the fact that funnily 2014 hit the sprint just about the right time to fill out a gap in the sphagetti of years:

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #253 on: March 25, 2014, 04:18:44 PM »
NSIDC have revised the extent for the 23rd down by around 60K (making it a near 60k drop), and have another 50k drop yesterday.
This means that we've gone from near record high gains in mid March to near record high losses now.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #254 on: March 26, 2014, 11:40:19 AM »
IJIS Extent:

14,044,187 km2 (25 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 35,751 km2 from previous day.
Down 393,303 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -56,186 km2)
Up 18,815 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 753 km2)

400,169 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
232,764 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
507,180 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fifth lowest for the date.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,261,576 km2 (25 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Down 62,011 km2 from previous day
Down 132,186 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -18,884 km2)
Up 217,149 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 8,686 km2)

229,928 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
66,582 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
284,143 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Sixth lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2014, 04:11:09 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #255 on: March 27, 2014, 11:02:29 AM »
IJIS Extent:

14,049,815 km2 (26 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Up 5,628 km2 from previous day.
Down 398,484 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -56,926 km2)
Up 24,443 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 940 km2)

380,790 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
212,139 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
397,163 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fifth lowest for the date.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,233,555 km2 (26 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Down 28,021 km2 from previous day
Down 135,958 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -19,423 km2)
Up 189,128 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 7,274 km2)

257,976 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
91,591 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
318,180 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Sixth lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 02:55:18 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #256 on: March 28, 2014, 12:40:24 PM »
IJIS Extent:

14,014,943 km2 (27 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 34,872 km2 from previous day.
Down 433,473 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -61,925 km2)
Down 10,429 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -386 km2)

392,332 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
250,155 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
523,511 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fifth lowest for the date.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,297,072km2 (27 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Up 63,517 km2 from previous day
Down 146,377 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -20,911 km2)
Up 252,645 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 9,357 km2)

159,817 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
65,046 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
277,141 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #257 on: March 28, 2014, 12:58:48 PM »
I just looked at the area millions graph, and if a new maximum would follow it would be the second latest after 2012 or even the latest since 1979. How likely is it that it could still happen?
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #258 on: March 28, 2014, 01:09:06 PM »
The sizable leads that the current ice has on 2012 (in both CT and IJIS) certainly stick out like a bright red flag.....

April will be interesting to watch...... ::)
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #259 on: March 28, 2014, 01:22:09 PM »
The sizable leads that the current ice has on 2012 (in both CT and IJIS) certainly stick out like a bright red flag.....

April will be interesting to watch...... ::)

How valid is that when CT is also above 1996 which was the 6th highest maximum (since 1979)?
 :o ::) ??? :P

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #260 on: March 28, 2014, 01:38:17 PM »
How valid is it?

1)  2012 conditions are MUCH more likely to be like those of 2014 (18 years ago vs 2 years ago)
2)  1996 ice had WAY MORE ice MASS as compared to 2012
3)  Long term trend of less and less ice is still very much in place (even with the "recovery" last year


So how "valid" is it?  I think it has validity.  It doesn't mean that we are sure to hit a new record low this year.  But I think it DOES MEAN that we have a "reasonably good possibility" of either getting close to a new low.....or setting an outright new low.  It is a "future event".  But my money would be on either (1) a new record low, or (2) the second lowest on record behind 2012.



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crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #261 on: March 28, 2014, 02:49:13 PM »
I did put a few emoticons to show I wasn't really being very serious.

we seem to have
Fifth lowest for the date.
Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.
Seventh lowest for the date. and
Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.

for extent and area.

To justify lowest or second lowest, we really have to turn to ice volume and I think we could be second lowest on ice volume even if last data shows 3rd lowest. Having a reasonable probability expectation of 2nd lowest or lower certainly looks sound to me.

The question really is whether expressing the current situation as "OMG we are at a lower area/extent than the year which went lowest." is an unfair representation of the situation when a fairer representation might be we are actually 5th or 7th lowest extent/area for the date.

If our side pull out unfair statistics, surely this just encourages the other side to think it is acceptable to pull out unfair statistics like the one I quoted above "CT is also above 1996 which was the 6th highest maximum (since 1979)"

So what do you think? Should we try to hold ourselves to higher standards? Is 'we are at a lower area/extent than the year which went lowest' acceptable in the circumstances?


I fully agree with your 2) and 3). Re 1), yes 2 years ago is more recent than 18 years ago and that does make the 2 years ago pattern a more likely pattern, but if that is the reason, why are you comparing to 2012 rather than to 2013? Surely it is just a cherry pick of 2012?



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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #262 on: March 28, 2014, 03:38:45 PM »
<<I did put a few emoticons to show I wasn't really being very serious.>>

I didn't see that....my bad:(

<<So what do you think? Should we try to hold ourselves to higher standards? Is 'we are at a lower area/extent than the year which went lowest' acceptable in the circumstances?>>

I DO hold myself to "higher standards".  I CERTAINLY agree with that.  I understand that you, and anyone else on this site for that matter.....knows very little about me or my background, or how I "look" at things.  I'm a CPA by trade......a "true skeptic".  My "standards" are to look at FACTS, NUMBERS, and SCIENCE and to draw "likely trends.....likely conclusions"....from those facts.  I don't "cherry pick" numbers for "our side" (note:  There really is only ONE SIDE.......humanity.......but most people really don't know that:). My "standards" are to follow the facts to their LIKELY conclusion based on reality, NOT on what I want reality to be.

I don't think EITHER "side" should "pull out" statistics and claim any kind of "victory".  The ice could really care less who wins.....it is ONLY reacting to physics (OK....a little biology and chemistry as well:).  But I think you get my drift.

So when I say that the "underage" against 2012 is a red flag.........and that April will be interesting to watch.......I am saying just that:

1)  As an interesting thing to note.....and to keep watch on
2)  As just a single statistic.......that is just one part (albeit a very important part) of an OVERWHELMING PICTURE of data points and science that is all too clear to me.
3)  It will be just one more record low........just the other record lows of the last 20 years.

So....I think you may have taken me in a manner different from what I wrote (or at least from what I ATTEMPTED to convey).

2014 is "setting up" to be a VERY INTERESTING year for climate change.  Possible/likely El Nino, possible new record low in Arctic sea ice minimum, some possible heavy melting on Greenland, etc.  So it was an "observation" as we bean counters like to say.

Humans have a VERY SHORT time frame from which we look at things.  I don't think people should be "surprised" by us setting a new record low in Arctic sea ice this year.  It is only going to be ONE point of reference......in a continuing LONG TERM TREND of record lows that humanity will be able to view over the coming years.

The important thing about the next 3 years......which includes this year (yes....I am being specific) is that I believe (based on history of the last 10 years.......and based on basic physics which continues to get worse) that we will see MOST of the Arctic sea ice GONE by Sept 2016....except for a band of ice along the Canadian Archipelago and north of Greenland (a band about 300 miles wide and 1500 miles long).  And I have had that SAME thought for the last two years.

So....here's to an interesting ice melt season......and to a hope that those who have thus far refused to look at FACTS and SCIENCE, take a closer look at what happens THIS YEAR. 

We are able to witness IN OUR LIFETIME.....what no other human has likely ever viewed.  THAT....is a big deal to me.  THAT....is interesting to me.

Boy....was that long-winded.   Sorry about that....
   

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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #263 on: March 28, 2014, 03:53:36 PM »
The question really is whether expressing the current situation as "OMG we are at a lower area/extent than the year which went lowest." is an unfair representation of the situation when a fairer representation might be we are actually 5th or 7th lowest extent/area for the date.

...

So what do you think? Should we try to hold ourselves to higher standards? Is 'we are at a lower area/extent than the year which went lowest' acceptable in the circumstances?

FWIW, I find it interesting to list the current year vs. 2012 stat. That is, as with today's extent number: "523,511 km2 below 2012 value for this date." But by doing so, I am in absolutely no way implying that 2014 will finish half a million km2 below 2012's record, or even that it will finish below 2012 at all. I'm just noting where things currently stand vis-à-vis that record year. But to be perfectly honest, I also post it partly in response to those hundreds of denial-based comments I read last summer proclaiming how, since extent at the time was higher than it was in 2012, a "recovery" of some kind had gotten underway, and the Arctic was on its way back to the icy place we've all come to know and love. Noting that extent is currently so far below 2012's numbers is, I suppose, my passive-aggressive way of ridiculing those premature proclamations.

Now, if I were cherry-picking, I suppose I wouldn't include the bits about being "7th lowest for the date" and all. But since those are there, that charge wouldn't stick very well, would it?  ;)

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #264 on: March 28, 2014, 04:16:21 PM »
But to be perfectly honest, I also post it partly in response to those hundreds of denial-based comments I read last summer proclaiming how, since extent at the time was higher than it was in 2012, a "recovery" of some kind had gotten underway, and the Arctic was on its way back to the icy place we've all come to know and love.

As luck would have it I've just hastily prepared a provisional maximum extent trend chart for the benefit of all those living in WattsLand:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/watts-up-with-the-maximum-trend/#MaxExtent

Can anyone spot any obvious errors or omissions?

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #265 on: March 28, 2014, 04:29:33 PM »
<<all those living in WattsLand>>

Is that north of Svalbard..... ;)
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #266 on: March 28, 2014, 04:34:52 PM »
2012 is notable for being the last time we saw a positive anomaly - for one day only...

2012.3151   0.0027094  12.8662653  12.8635559

Which occurred lets say around 20th April (not sure of date)

It does vaguely occur that this may be related to the later massive minimum negative anomaly late that year?

If the diminishing supply of cold is wasting its time freezing things like Okotsch and St Lawrence in March/April, which are going to melt anyway, this leaves less cold available to freeze the Central Arctic, and to thicken the sea ice there which does have a chance of surviving.

Counterintuitive, but more ice area and extent at this time of year may be a harbinger of a smaller total remnant ice pack come September.

Certainly annual minima have dropped in recent years. I am also fairly sure that neagtive anomalies have been smallest in very late winter/early spring. As discussed above, 2012 is the paragon example of this.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #267 on: March 28, 2014, 04:37:07 PM »
Is that north of Svalbard..... ;)

No Buddy. In WattsLand the temperatures are currently well below "normal"!
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #268 on: March 28, 2014, 04:49:08 PM »
<<all those living in WattsLand>>
Is that north of Svalbard..... ;)
No Buddy. In WattsLand the temperatures are currently well below "normal"!

Stratospherically high pie in the sky land then? ;)

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #269 on: March 28, 2014, 05:26:53 PM »
In Nordic.....I believe that "Wattsland" translates into "land where water never freezes."  In English.....it is called Hell.... ;D
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #270 on: March 28, 2014, 07:47:51 PM »
But to be perfectly honest, I also post it partly in response to those hundreds of denial-based comments I read last summer proclaiming how, since extent at the time was higher than it was in 2012, a "recovery" of some kind had gotten underway, and the Arctic was on its way back to the icy place we've all come to know and love.

As luck would have it I've just hastily prepared a provisional maximum extent trend chart for the benefit of all those living in WattsLand:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/watts-up-with-the-maximum-trend/#MaxExtent

Can anyone spot any obvious errors or omissions?

I wouldn't personally use maximum, and instead would use minimum. 

Using maximum will lend itself to someone pointing out a 10yr upward trend at some point.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #271 on: March 28, 2014, 08:08:02 PM »
Greg Laden takes another perspective on the loss of arctic ice : http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/03/28/arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-perspective/

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #272 on: March 28, 2014, 08:42:02 PM »
I wouldn't personally use maximum, and instead would use minimum. 

Using maximum will lend itself to someone pointing out a 10yr upward trend at some point.

The context in this case was an article about Arctic maximum extent that made no mention of the long term trend. We're rapidly drifting off topic in here though. Perhaps we could continue the conversation (if so desired) in a place designed for discussing such nonsense?
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #273 on: March 28, 2014, 09:07:00 PM »
Winter anomaly is ok, but 2013 show us that +10° winter anomaly is nothing against -1° summer anomaly. I think in opposite signs the same. Of course chances for second 2013 are low, but not enough low for total refuse this oppotunity.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #274 on: March 29, 2014, 02:10:03 AM »
winter anomalies may have some importance.

It could have an effect on the temperature of the ice.  I would think the warmer it is the faster it will warm up enough to start melting.

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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #275 on: March 29, 2014, 12:21:45 PM »
IJIS Extent:

13,942,676 km2 (28 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 72,267 km2 from previous day.
Down 466,158 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -66,594 km2)
Down 82,696 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -2,953 km2)

428,436 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
302,408 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
579,681 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fifth lowest for the date.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,371,244 km2 (28 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Up 74,173 km2 from previous day
Down 80,177 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -11,454 km2)
Up 326,818 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 11,672 km2)

71,189 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
35,529 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
187,361 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2014, 01:48:46 PM by Jim Pettit »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #276 on: March 29, 2014, 01:42:47 PM »
Winter anomalies may have some importance. It could have an effect on the temperature of the ice.

I think that's the world famous IMB 2006C, which reached an ice thickness of 3.16 m by the end of March 2007, and then 1.67 m by the end of March 2008. By way of comparison IMB 2013F, in the Beaufort Sea at the moment, has reached 1.64 m, but with a core ice temperature currently around -12, if its thermistors are to be believed:
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #277 on: March 29, 2014, 09:36:41 PM »
Not sure I agree with the core temp of -12 C.  My reading of the thermistor data is as follows:

Thermistors 1-3 are in air, temperature ~-10 C.  Thermistor 3 is about on the snow boundary.

Thermistors 3-7 are in the snow layer (50cm by sonar).  The snow was dropped earlier in the winter when it was much colder, and is hence colder than both the overlying air and the underlying ice (i.e. it's been acting as an insulating barrier).

Top of the ice is somewhere between 7 and 8, as it has been since September of last year.

Bottom of the ice is somewhere below 20 (20 being where it becomes isothermal with the water below).  The sonar says it's a bit over 1.6 metres, which would put the lower edge between 24 and 25, and I see no reason to doubt that.

Averaging the readings from thermistor ~8 to ~23 shows that the core temperature of the ice (rather than the colder snow layer) is no lower than -4 C.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2014, 10:00:40 PM by Peter Ellis »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #278 on: March 29, 2014, 10:04:34 PM »
The alternative is that thermistor 20 is the bottom of the ice, and the top is thus between thermistor 3 & 4. I can't square that with the readings from Sept/Oct last year, which very clearly show cold air/snow over warmer underlying ice, with a sharp discontinuity at the boundary.  See also the Jan readings, which have two very clear linear segments with different gradients, representing the different thermal conductivity of the snow layer and the ice layer.

Comparing to your other graph here (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.150.html), the takehome message I'm getting is that the temperature profile for this bouy is (at the end of March) substantially warmer than the other buoy was at the start of May last year.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #279 on: March 30, 2014, 12:12:05 AM »
The alternative is that thermistor 20 is the bottom of the ice, and the top is thus between thermistor 3 & 4. I can't square that with the readings from Sept/Oct last year, which very clearly show cold air/snow over warmer underlying ice, with a sharp discontinuity at the boundary. ...

Whatever way we look at the thermistors, one conclusion I can make is, the ice is too D*mn Thin, and too D*mn Hot.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #280 on: March 30, 2014, 12:39:37 PM »
Top of the ice is somewhere between 7 and 8, as it has been since September of last year.

In which case the coldest lump of ice (just under the snow) is currently somewhere around -8, rather than the "normal"  -20 at this time of year? Certainly "too D*mn Hot"!
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crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #281 on: March 30, 2014, 05:43:58 PM »
NSIDC extent
29/3 14.46298 down from max on 20/3 of 14.96031 by 498k.

That looks like enough to be able to stop simmering that crow stew.

Likewise IJIS 13855013 of 29/3 is down from 14448416 on 20/3 by 593k which again looks like enough to be sure.

CT area at 13.3517122 is less than 13.4873371 but only by 135k which is not a great deal though NSIDC has fallen by 22k and 141k in last 2 days. Likely past peak but better keep some of the crow stew simmering just a little longer?

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #282 on: March 30, 2014, 06:43:24 PM »
CT area at 13.3517122 is less than 13.4873371 but only by 135k which is not a great deal though NSIDC has fallen by 22k and 141k in last 2 days. Likely past peak but better keep some of the crow stew simmering just a little longer?

No need, expect  about -150k and -100k in the next two day.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #283 on: March 30, 2014, 08:53:08 PM »
IJIS Extent:

13,855,013 km2 (29 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 87,663 km2 from previous day.
Down 470,433 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -67,205 km2)
Down 170,359 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -5,874 km2)

480,324 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
377,244 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
681,365 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date.
40th day this year in the bottom three.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,351,712 km2 (29 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Down 19,532 km2 from previous day
Down 135,625 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -19,375 km2)
Up 307,285 km2 for the month of March (daily average: 10,596 km2)

71,116 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
58,307 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
284,989 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Seventh lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #284 on: March 30, 2014, 10:29:34 PM »
Update for the week to March 29th

The current 1 day extent is 14,462,980km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,604,350km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -798,590km2, an increase from -589,980km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -157,150km2, a change from +93,220km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -42.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -1.2k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -28.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -26.1k/day.

The change so far this month is the 24th most negative on record. To record the largest March gain, at least +301.5k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -310.5k/day for the remainder of the month.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #285 on: March 31, 2014, 12:19:46 PM »
IJIS Extent:

13,848,958 km2 (29 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 6,055 km2 from previous day.
Down 307,106 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -43,872 km2)
Down 176,414 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -5,880 km2)

458,447 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
396,636 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
702,147 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Third lowest for the date.
41st day this year in the bottom three for the date.

Fifth lowest March-to-date average on record.


CT area:

13,208,353 km2 (30 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Down 143,359 km2 from previous day
Down 229,879 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -32,840 km2)
Up 163,296km2 for the month of March (daily average: 5,464 km2)

195,213 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
175,457 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
500,157 km2 below 2012 value for this date. (NOTE: 2012's maximum occurred on this date)

Sixth lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March-to-date average on record.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2014, 03:54:36 PM by Jim Pettit »

Buddy

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #286 on: March 31, 2014, 12:45:09 PM »

Regarding IJIS extent.....we are now below the 2010's average by 396,636 (reported by Jim)......vs 1 week ago when we were only below the 2010's average by 177,801 on March 24th.

This has been a pretty steep drop in the IJIS data for the week.....more than doubling the difference from the average 2010's....

Obviously....the 2012 data sticks out as well.....but both are "interesting"....and notable.


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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #287 on: March 31, 2014, 01:20:17 PM »
Obviously....the 2012 data sticks out as well.....but both are "interesting"....and notable.

Speaking of 2012, I find it notable that IJIS extent is today more than 700,000 square kilometers lower than it was on the same day in 2012*. That's an area larger than the U.S. state of Texas.

Notable indeed...

* - NOTE: I'm not claiming this difference will remain for the duration of the melt season; I'm just mentioning it...
« Last Edit: March 31, 2014, 01:46:02 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #288 on: April 01, 2014, 12:26:47 PM »
IJIS Extent:

13,877,174 km2 (31 March)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Up 28,216 km2 from previous day.
Down 202,764 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -28,966 km2)
Down 148,198 km2 for the month of March (daily average: -4,781 km2)

396,616 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
380,230 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
653,633 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date.

Fifth lowest March average on record.


CT area:

13,108,504 km2 (31 March)
(2014 maximum: 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March)

Down 99,849 km2 from previous day
Down 215,082 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -30,726 km2)
Up 64,077km2 for the month of March (daily average: 2,067 km2)

281,571 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
278,222 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
597,899 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Sixth lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest March average on record. (NOTE: this year's March average was lower than 2013's February average.)
« Last Edit: April 01, 2014, 05:11:01 PM by Jim Pettit »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #289 on: April 01, 2014, 07:33:57 PM »
Speaking of 2012, I find it notable that IJIS extent is today more than 700,000 square kilometers lower than it was on the same day in 2012

Yes 2012 got off to a very slow start even setting daily high records (post 2002) for April 16,17,19,20.21 before nosediving.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #290 on: April 01, 2014, 09:51:44 PM »
Out of context:

Opposite sea ice in the Arctic, the oxygen less areas in the Baltic Sea is growing?

Red color indicates low content of oxygen.

Black color show no oxygen at all?

Please click on image to enlarge!
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #291 on: April 01, 2014, 10:36:43 PM »
What, Espen? This looks serious. Is it the Danish government who is monitoring? Can you tell us more?
« Last Edit: April 01, 2014, 11:33:42 PM by Anne »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #292 on: April 02, 2014, 04:53:27 AM »
Espen, are you Norwegian? These maps of oxygen depletion and deprivation (anoxia?) are likely the modelled situation in the bottom of the sea. Baltic is more and more looking like Black Sea in this respect I admit. The Sea isn't the same as in 1950s anymore, ask any old fisherman. Brutally, that's just the effect of 50 years of fertilization and overfishing, though if you ask any old farmer or any old fisherman they say they've not done it (alias BAU). I might add that this should be seen anywhere where c.40 million people live on the catchment area of a water body that's not deeply connected to the world ocean. Danish straits aren't too deep (<30m), so everything under that might one day be dead... Which brings to mind the question how deep is the strait of Gibraltar (c.300m) and what's the situation in the Mediterranean (I don't know)?
« Last Edit: April 02, 2014, 05:50:52 AM by Pmt111500 »

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #293 on: April 02, 2014, 08:44:49 AM »
That spread of anoxic areas, unfortunately, is perfectly in sync with increased agricultural runoff from the drainages all around the Baltic.  Combine that with shallow, brackish waters that have relatively little exchange through the Skagerak, and it is almost inevitable.

We see the same writ large at the mouth of the Mississippi in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #294 on: April 02, 2014, 12:21:47 PM »
IJIS Extent:

13,874,338 km2 (01 April)
(2014 maximum: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March)

Down 2,836 km2 from previous day.
Down 169,849 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -24,264 km2)
Down 2,836 km2 for the month of April (daily average: -2,836 km2)

362,799 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
371,893 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
631,735 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Fourth lowest for the date.

Fourth lowest April to-date average on record.

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #295 on: April 02, 2014, 01:12:32 PM »
March land snow cover 6th lowest:

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=3

Recently April May June usually see declines relative to previous month.

Slightly more land snow cover than 2008 and 2002 but current sea ice area, extent and volume are lower than 2002 and 2008.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #296 on: April 02, 2014, 02:00:39 PM »
I think it is safe to say that "the dice are now loaded".  Likely El Nino on the way, Arctic ice at record low levels for this time of year, and snow cover at low levels...

If I were a betting man........I would push some money on "red" for heat.....:)

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crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #297 on: April 02, 2014, 02:34:31 PM »
Arctic ice at record low levels for this time of year

Is that mass of ice so that Greenland dominates?

AFAICS it isn't sea ice extent nor area nor volume nor land snow cover nor (sea ice area+land snow cover):

2002 ct area 13.565 + land snow cover 37.62 = 51.185
2014 ct area 13.109 + land snow cover 38.41 = 51.52

but if we give sea ice area double the weighting of snow cover that might do it:

2014 13.109 *2 + 38.41 = 64.63
2002 13.565 *2 + 37.62 = 64.75
2007 12.721 *2 + 39.42 = 64.86
2004 13.088 *2 + 38.70 = 64.88
2008 13.453 *2 + 37.85 = 64.76
2006 12.898 *2 + 40.98 = 66.78
2005 13.091 *2 + 41.08 = 67.26
2011 12.957 *2 + 42.63 = 68.54

Yep! Looks like it.

No wait I need to check 1990

1990 13.478 *2 + 37.12 = 64.08

Hmm second lowest.

Back to mass so Greenland dominates?
« Last Edit: April 02, 2014, 02:39:53 PM by crandles »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #298 on: April 02, 2014, 03:57:42 PM »
I am about 70-80% sure attm that we are going to see Russian snow cover obliterate the previous records in April, May, and June.

It's in terrible shape and there is no relief from the warm intrusions.
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crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #299 on: April 02, 2014, 04:22:18 PM »
How do you judge its 'terrible state' (other than current snow cover)?

Anyone know what happened in 2008 for the snow to recover so much during April when it was so low in March?

2008 March   37.85 -2.22
2008 April           29.29 -0.925

March mean (1981-2010) 40.130
April mean (1981-2010) 30.215