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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #450 on: May 25, 2014, 05:15:37 PM »
Update for the week to May 24th

The current 1 day extent is 12,492,350km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,549,460km2

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -437,460km2, a decrease from -554,950km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +55,000km2, a change from -87,110km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 4th lowest last week.
The average daily change over the last 7 days was -28.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -45.5k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -53.9k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -42.0k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -48.9k/day.

The loss so far this May is the 17th smallest on record. To achieve the largest May loss, a decrease greater than -139.4k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires a gain of at least +48.8k/day.





Just to note, I'll be changing to a running 5 day mean and using the 81-10 average in the next week or two, so the data and graphs will change a little.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

helorime

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #451 on: May 25, 2014, 07:34:54 PM »
The periodicity remains.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #452 on: May 26, 2014, 01:29:55 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,681,711 km2 (25 May)
Down 2,766,705 km2 (19.15%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,504,256 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 38,951 km2 from previous day.
Down 238,553 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -34,079 km2).
Down 1,212,004 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -48,480 km2).
231,964 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
14,686 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
223,077 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
115,565 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fifth lowest value for the date.
Third lowest May to-date average.


CT Area:
10,717,319 km2 (25 May [Day 0.3945])
Down 2,770,019 km2 (20.54%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,483,309 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 62,633 km2 from previous day.
Down 228,974 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -32,711 km2).
Down 1,473,632 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -58,945 km2).
102,894 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
142,459 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
241,553 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
117,795 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
Fifth lowest May to-date average.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2014, 07:17:11 PM by Jim Pettit »

Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #453 on: May 27, 2014, 05:53:33 AM »
Last week, Arctic was the slowest in melt rates in the CT SIA record.
A week before that, Arctic was fourth fastest in melt rates in the CT SIA record.
Second Last or Last week before the June cliff begins.


A bit of variation.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2014, 06:16:09 AM by Pmt111500 »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #454 on: May 27, 2014, 12:35:21 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,637,576 km2 (26 May)
Down 2,810,840 km2 (19.45%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,460,121 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 44,135 km2 from previous day.
Down 235,280 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -33,611 km2).
Down 1,256,139 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -48,313 km2).
235,326 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
22,711 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
225,708 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
104,940 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fifth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May to-date average.


CT Area:
10,601,181 km2 (26 May [Day 0.3972])
Down 2,886,156 km2 (21.4%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,367,172 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 116,137 km2 from previous day.
Down 328,436 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -46,919 km2).
Down 1,589,769 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -61,145 km2).
196,083 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
116,819 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
315,649 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
105,119 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
Fifth lowest May to-date average.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2014, 09:46:58 PM by Jim Pettit »

Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #455 on: May 28, 2014, 11:05:43 AM »
For some fun (as I'm not a scientist), plotted here is the position of the year on a given day of CT SIA weekly trailing average of melt/gain. (so the year having an ordinal '1' was the fastest melting/slowest growing year on that day) thought this sort of plot might make it easier to find the changes induced by AGW (similar colors would cluster, if there were no changes going on the plot would be totally random) but as you see this is not the case. Sure, the june cliff shows up here too, and some of the variation given in the 'trend every day' plots. Maybe this should be done with respect to el Nino too, to see if there are clusters forming wrt that (does el nino predict similar sort of behavior in the arctic melt) but i strongly suspect this has been checked by some scientist before.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2014, 11:41:54 AM by Pmt111500 »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #456 on: May 28, 2014, 11:53:44 AM »
IJIS Extent:
11,596,757 km2 (27 May)
Down 2,851,659 km2 (19.74%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,419,302 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 40,819 km2 from previous day.
Down 250,961 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -35,852 km2).
Down 1,296,958 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -48,035 km2).
234,294 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
31,063 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
234,188 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
101,142 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May to-date average.

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #457 on: May 28, 2014, 02:11:34 PM »
Sorry Pmt111500 but that sure looks like a damn fine piece of tapestry

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #458 on: May 28, 2014, 06:52:54 PM »
I hope I will be able announce my NSIDC extent and area calculations to be online sometime soon.
I thought for the interest in the developing melt season to show the in-development regional graphs.

Extent is the very nearly the same as NSIDC ice index, area is compatible with that. Grey's are the one and two sigma bands around the 1981-2010 mean.

Critique is always welcome. 

Neven

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #459 on: May 28, 2014, 11:46:32 PM »
Critique is always welcome.

Compliments first! Well done.

Maybe give the coloured years a more prominent place?
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #460 on: May 29, 2014, 07:43:33 AM »
Sorry Pmt111500 but that sure looks like a damn fine piece of tapestry

not sure how to take this... anyway you'd have to do 1/365 over again every day, if you wanted to keep that updated. the occasional white patches in the "loin" are because sometimes two years have an exactly same speed of melt. (modifed:) I don't know how I missed to set '1984' to a better position in the palette.

glancing at wipneus' graphs, which are of his usual high quality, 2014 isn't looking, as of yet, a repeat of 2012, 2013, nor 2007... looking a bit slower in the margins than 2012. I've been previously trying to account and balance losses from Pacific and Atlantic sectors to make early estimates of loss by september but after last year I've become even more cautious to say much.

Looking at numbers of CT SIA 1992 and 2003 could be the closest comparable thus far in the year but they'll be no help what with regime changes that have since happened imo. funnily they land on the 11 year solar cycle. Looks like another incomparable year in the making. June cliff should start shortly, possibly those Frivolous' checks on forecasts are correct and in a week we'll see the melt speed up in the 2010s levels, unlike last year.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2014, 09:58:24 AM by Pmt111500 »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #461 on: May 29, 2014, 12:43:30 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,548,238 km2 (28 May)
Down 2,900,178 km2 (20.07%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,370,783 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 48,519 km2 from previous day.
Down 264,453 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -37,779 km2).
Down 1,345,477 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -48,053 km2).
244,604 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
20,862 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
248,494 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
104,488 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May to-date average.


CT Area:
10,425,755 km2 (28 May [Day 0.4027])
Down 3,061,583 km2 (22.7%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,191,745 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 126,124 km2 from previous day.
Down 427,642 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -61,092 km2).
Down 1,765,196 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -63,043 km2).
203,458 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
84,118 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
417,118 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
201,221 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
Fifth lowest May to-date average.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2014, 07:27:17 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #462 on: May 30, 2014, 11:59:36 AM »
IJIS Extent:
11,519,123 km2 (29 May)
Down 2,929,293 km2 (20.27%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,341,668 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 29,115 km2 from previous day.
Down 289,673 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -41,382 km2).
Down 1,374,592 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -47,400 km2).
238,662 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
21,588 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
258,547 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
76,791 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May to-date average.


CT Area:
10,370,912 km2 (29 May [Day 0.4055])
Down 3,116,426 km2 (23.11%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,136,902 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 54,843 km2 from previous day.
Down 456,108 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -65,158 km2).
Down 1,820,039 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -62,760 km2).
214,384 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
117,610 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
364,749 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
203,840 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
Fifth lowest May to-date average.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2014, 07:30:54 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #463 on: May 31, 2014, 01:23:31 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,470,484 km2 (30 May)
Down 2,977,932 km2 (20.61%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,293,029 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 48,639 km2 from previous day.
Down 301,002 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -43,000 km2).
Down 1,423,231 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -47,441 km2).
245,594 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
24,606 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
265,868 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
44,710 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May to-date average.


CT Area:
10,391,592 km2 (30 May [Day 0.4082])
Down 3,095,745 km2 (22.95%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,157,583 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Up 20,680 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: first one-day increase since 05 May)
Down 422,652 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -60,379 km2).
Down 1,799,358 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -59,979 km2).
147,783 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
177,910 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
289,675 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
389,883 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
Fifth lowest May to-date average.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #464 on: June 01, 2014, 12:42:52 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,385,455 km2 (31 May)
Down 3,062,961 km2 (21.2%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,208,000 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 85,029 km2 from previous day.
Down 335,207 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -47,887 km2).
Down 1,508,260 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -48,654 km2).
283,516 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
4,623 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
294,309 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
95,495 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May average.


CT Area:
10,327,670 km2 (31 May [Day 0.411])
Down 3,159,667 km2 (23.43%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,093,661 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 63,922 km2 from previous day.
Down 452,281 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -64,612 km2).
Down 1,863,280 km2 for the month of May (daily average: -60,106 km2).
162,832 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
139,855 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
363,694 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
356,403 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
Sixth lowest May average.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2014, 02:37:56 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #465 on: June 01, 2014, 04:52:19 PM »
NSIDC extent reports a century today (-106k). But area is really going down the cliff (-280k).

This will not be reflected in CT-area until Tuesday, my prediction of CT-area is -296k

Details of the 14 regions:

Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.0                    -5.2                   -23.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.8                     7.8                   -21.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -35.0                    -2.9                    -4.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                  -13.3                     0.0                    -5.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -3.3                     3.3                  -100.0

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -29.3                   -10.9                   -23.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    5.9                    -5.3                   -10.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -22.9                    -0.6                  -146.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -0.9                   -16.9                   -13.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -2.9                     0.8                  -277.0







Buddy

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #466 on: June 01, 2014, 05:36:00 PM »
June looks to be setting up for "hell month"..... :'(

Add to that the fire danger in Russia and Alaska that may also affect albedo this summer......and the picture is not very pretty.



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Yuha

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #467 on: June 01, 2014, 06:10:36 PM »
NSIDC extent reports a century today (-106k). But area is really going down the cliff (-280k).

Extent:
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -35.0                    -2.9                    -4.9
Area:
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -22.9                    -0.6                  -146.4


Looks like melt ponds on Hudson Bay are causing much of the big drop in area. As I observed on the melt thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg27298.html#msg27298) it's warm there this weekend. The weather is about to turn a bit colder there so we might see a rebound in Hudson Bay area in the next days.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #468 on: June 01, 2014, 06:23:08 PM »
Update for the week to May 31st (using data based on the 5 day mean)

The current 5 day mean is on 12,259,090km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,176,350km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -468,190km2, an increase from -457,570km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +5,693km2, a change from -5,390km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 5th lowest last week.
The average daily change over the last 7 days was -41.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -40.0k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -49.8k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -61.4k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -75.2k/day.

The extent loss this May was the 15th smallest on record and 41,360km2 below the 81-10 average.





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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #469 on: June 01, 2014, 08:06:57 PM »
Two numbers to follow, obvious but worth mentioning, I think:

71,373
70,379

To reach the same extent/area reached in mid September of 2012, those represent respectively, the average drop in daily extent (71,373), and daily area (70,379) over the next 115 days must meet or exceed these numbers.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #470 on: June 02, 2014, 01:01:22 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,314,078 km2 (01 June)
Down 3,134,338 km2 (21.69%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,136,623 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 71,377 km2 from previous day.
Down 367,633 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -52,519 km2).
Down 71,377 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -71,377 km2).
309,372 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
7,248 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
300,491 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
129,120 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest June to-date average.


CT Area:
10,270,430 km2 (01 June [Day 0.4137])
Down 3,216,908 km2 (23.85%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
8,036,420 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 57,241 km2 from previous day.
Down 446,889 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -63,841 km2).
Down 57,241 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -57,241 km2).
139,826 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
103,924 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
385,950 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
330,206 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
Seventh lowest June to-date average.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2014, 02:12:49 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #471 on: June 02, 2014, 01:47:17 PM »
To reach the same extent/area reached in mid September of 2012...the average drop in daily extent...must meet or exceed [71,373].

IJIS Extent:
11,314,078 km2 (01 June)
Down 71,377 km2 from previous day.

Nice call. ;-)

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #472 on: June 02, 2014, 06:34:15 PM »
To reach the same extent/area reached in mid September of 2012...the average drop in daily extent...must meet or exceed [71,373].

IJIS Extent:
11,314,078 km2 (01 June)
Down 71,377 km2 from previous day.

Nice call. ;-)
Always fascinating when reality imitates conjecture. ;)
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #473 on: June 02, 2014, 09:20:54 PM »
If I've understood correctly, and as things stand, this year will beat the 2012 record by 4 km2?  ;D
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #474 on: June 02, 2014, 09:22:12 PM »
If I've understood correctly, and as things stand, this year will beat the 2012 record by 4 km2?  ;D

in theory by 4km^2 * the number of days left.

In practice probably not.. :P

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #475 on: June 03, 2014, 01:48:51 AM »
If I've understood correctly, and as things stand, this year will beat the 2012 record by 4 km2?  ;D

in theory by 4km^2 * the number of days left.

In practice probably not.. :P
<amused snerk>  :) just thinking I can use those numbers to compare with what ice is left/days left to 9/15 to follow just how badly my predictions are off.  :o
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #476 on: June 03, 2014, 12:13:42 PM »
Jim P, I am looking forward to your analysis for 2 June as it appears there has been a double century drop!

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #477 on: June 03, 2014, 12:34:59 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,261,908 km2 (02 June)
Down 3,186,508 km2 (22.05%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,084,453 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 52,170 km2 from previous day.
Down 375,668 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -53,667 km2).
Down 123,547 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -61,774 km2).
318,310 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
5,914 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
289,130 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
126,065 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest June to-date average.


CT Area:
9,983,701 km2 (02 June [Day 0.4164])
Down 3,503,636 km2 (25.98%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
7,749,691 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 286,729 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: fourth largest one-day June drop ever; largest since 2008)
Down 617,480 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -88,211 km2).
Down 343,969 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -171,985 km2).
371,418 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
89,972 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
597,485 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
105,315 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Seventh lowest June to-date average.

Jim P, I am looking forward to your analysis for 2 June as it appears there has been a double century drop!

Indeed. In fact, at 286,729, it came close to that elusive triple-century drop. Yowza!
« Last Edit: June 03, 2014, 12:48:54 PM by Jim Pettit »

deep octopus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #478 on: June 03, 2014, 06:12:25 PM »
Here's the culprit. Hudson Bay turned completely red overnight.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/testimage.2.sh?first=20140531.jpg&second=20140601.jpg

Is this reasonable? It is looking very thin and light blue on Earthview, however. It is also getting very warm in that region, and its time is about up as it always is this point in the year.

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=geographic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,sedac_bound&time=2014-06-02&map=-97.570312,52.694824,-74.912109,66.036621

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #479 on: June 03, 2014, 06:19:59 PM »
That would not be the culprit yet as it is still well above the threshold, but yes I would expect it to be melting pretty quickly now.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #480 on: June 03, 2014, 06:25:10 PM »
At least for the daily CT's calculated drop, it seems to be a key contribution. Over 100,000 km^2 loss. Probably around 150,000 km^2 in actuality.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.13.html

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #481 on: June 03, 2014, 06:27:08 PM »
Yeah, extent is doing nothing much unusual today, while area dropped like a stone - typical signature of an outbreak of melt ponding.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #482 on: June 03, 2014, 06:46:00 PM »
That would not be the culprit yet as it is still well above the threshold, but yes I would expect it to be melting pretty quickly now.

Umm, That would not be the culprit but for a different reason so not yet but as it had already happened see post #465 above.

CT is area not extent so changes in concentration do count.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #483 on: June 03, 2014, 06:55:19 PM »
Duh, area.  Of course, sorry.  Had extent in my head.  :P
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #484 on: June 03, 2014, 07:09:29 PM »
Here's the culprit. Hudson Bay turned completely red overnight.

It's mostly melt ponds. It was really warm there over the weekend. Temperatures stayed above zero even through the night.

Later the nights have turned colder and there might be some kind of rebound in the next days. However, once formed, the melt ponds have a lower albedo than snow even if they refreeze, so this is a big boost to melting.


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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #485 on: June 03, 2014, 09:34:45 PM »
The rest of the Pacific side of the Basin is going to have melt ponding shortly.  The Fast ice over the ESS/Laptev is going to go very early this year.  Concentration there will plummet soon.

The beaufort area will see relatively large drops on CT as well.

So I think we should expect a June cliff.

We may even drop into last place thanks to the large amount of open water in the Basin.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #486 on: June 04, 2014, 12:36:01 PM »
@JimHunt
Estimate of likely course of melt season using the following graph from DOSBAT.
http://dosbat.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/piomas-april-2014-gridded-data.html



The volume of ice for each thickness band was estimated using a crude measurement  from the graph. The area of ice this represents was calculated Volume / Thickness. Dates are estimates by correlating against actual declines over the past three years. The melt rate based on thickness has been fairly consistent over this time.

April Ice
Thickness   Estimated Volume   (km3)      Estimated Area (Kkm2)         
 (cm)            2011   2012   2013   2014      2011   2012   2013   2014
0.05             30      30               30     30                600    600            600            600
0.15             60      60               50     60                400    400            333           400
0.25             90      90               70     90                360    360            280            360
0.35           100    125               90    100                286    357            257            286
0.45           160    160             140    125                356    356            311            278
Jun 1 Estimate Total Loss                                 2001       2073          1782        1923

0.55          210           210             160    125                382    382            291            227
0.65          210           240             180    160                323    369            277            246
0.75          160           375             260    210                213    500            347            280
Jun 15 Estimated loss previous 2 weeks                           918       1251          915          753

0.85           240          430             260    240                282    506            306            282
0.95           300          320             280    260                316    337            295            274
1.05           430          270             330    375                410    257            314            357
1.15           450          375             450    500                391    326            391            435
1.25           500          620             680    450                400    496            544            360
Jul 1 Estimated loss previous 2 weeks                      1799       1922          1950        1708

1.35           625         770            700            625                463    570            519           463
1.45           720       1000            720            720                497    690            497           497
1.55       1000         900            750            670                645    581            484           432
Jul 15 Estimated loss previous 2 weeks                      1605   1841   1499      1392

1.65          950        830           550            950                576    503             333   576
1.75        1250        750         1250          1950                714    429             714      1114
1.85        1670        875         1500          2250                903    473             811      1216

Aug 1st Estimated loss previous 2 weeks              2193       1405           1858      2906
Aug 1st Total accumulated loss                         8516       8491           7904      8683

1.95        2000        740        2600         2000              1026    379           1333   1026
2.05        1450        950        2650         1550                707    463           1293     756
2.15        1950      1150        1150         1500                 907    535             535     698
2.25        1350      1500          975         1250                 600    667             433     556
2.35        850      2100        1000           750                 362    894             426     319

Based on these figures we can see that with thickness loss at the rate of the past three years, 2014 ice extent will be above the other three years until the ice has lost an average 1.55m of thickness.  From 1.55 to 1.85 m loss however, 2014 will catch and surpass the other three years.  All of the past three years have lost more than 1.85 m of thickness. The final figure will be dependent on the total thickness loss, however 2012 appears to  have lost  about 2.30 m, which if repeated would put the final figure in the region 2-2.5 MKm2, even 2.10m will surpass the 2012 final figures.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 03:23:15 PM by DavidR »
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #487 on: June 04, 2014, 12:57:02 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,212,268 km2 (03 June)
Down 3,236,148 km2 (22.4%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
8,034,813 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 49,640 km2 from previous day.
Down 384,489 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -54,927 km2).
Down 173,187 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -57,729 km2).
321,849 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
11,380 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
283,177 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
141,340 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest June to-date average.


CT Area:
9,804,715 km2 (03 June [Day 0.4192])
Down 3,682,622 km2 (27.3%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
7,570,706 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 178,986 km2 from previous day. (NOTE: two-day decrease of 465,000 km2 is an area larger than the State of California.)
Down 747,163 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -106,738 km2).
Down 522,955 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -174,318 km2).
463,788 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
152,354 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
692,857 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
22,565 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third  lowest value for the date.
16th day this year with third lowest daily area; 48th day this year among bottom three.
Sixth lowest June to-date average.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2014, 08:39:53 PM by Jim Pettit »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #488 on: June 04, 2014, 03:01:53 PM »
Another interesting piece of evidence from the DOSBAT presentation for April PIOMAS is that we have the second lowest  volume of ice with thickness greater than 2.2 m and  the average thickness is much higher than it was in 2011 or 2013.  So  while we had about 3M Km2 of ice above 2.2 m thickness in 2011 and 2013 and nearly 4M Km2 in 2007 and 2012,  in 2014 we only  have about  2.4M Km2.
The fourth lowest volume is more than 2M Km3 greater than 2014
Even an average year will destroy  the ice pack this year.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #489 on: June 04, 2014, 03:42:31 PM »
David, I think you are assuming the same thickness being melted from all cells that have that thickness. Do both area and volume reductions work out doing that?

In reality, the edge of the pack melts faster than the interior with wavers and warmed water around ice at the edges. Also I believe the albedo depends on the thickness of the ice. So ignoring the edge of pack effect, a cell that is just thick enough to melt out at the last moment melts more thickness than a cell which starts with thicker ice.

I also think there is a trend to being able to melt thicker ice in later years.

Trying to follow the area losses like you are doing is interesting. I had been trying to follow the PIOMAS volume losses. I am trying to figure out what effects the above complications might have compared to what you are predicting. Will be interesting to see if the late July area drop is as spectacular as you are predicting.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #490 on: June 04, 2014, 08:36:41 PM »
In Jim Pettit's post above, the NOTE about the two day decrease of 465,000 km2 should be for the CT area, not the IJIS extent. Either way, it's impressive and you have to wonder if the extent will follow suit.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #491 on: June 04, 2014, 09:58:15 PM »
jaxa will follow.

It still shows a ton of ice where CT has dropped.

melt out/compaction will cause extent to follow area this time.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #492 on: June 04, 2014, 11:58:40 PM »
In Jim Pettit's post above, the NOTE about the two day decrease of 465,000 km2 should be for the CT area, not the IJIS extent. Either way, it's impressive and you have to wonder if the extent will follow suit.
If loss of area is higher, loss of extent is mostly immaterial, and implies to me the situation is even more dangerous...
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #493 on: June 05, 2014, 12:08:02 AM »
CT area
2012.4192  -0.9266612   9.7821503  10.7088118
2010.4192  -0.9989814   9.7933292  10.7923107
2014.4192  -0.9875954   9.8047152  10.7923107

just 22k above lowest on record for time of year

crandles

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #494 on: June 05, 2014, 12:09:11 AM »
In Jim Pettit's post above, the NOTE about the two day decrease of 465,000 km2 should be for the CT area, not the IJIS extent. Either way, it's impressive and you have to wonder if the extent will follow suit.
If loss of area is higher, loss of extent is mostly immaterial, and implies to me the situation is even more dangerous...

But it could be melt ponds being misinterpreted as water.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #495 on: June 05, 2014, 12:26:25 AM »
In Jim Pettit's post above, the NOTE about the two day decrease of 465,000 km2 should be for the CT area, not the IJIS extent. Either way, it's impressive and you have to wonder if the extent will follow suit.
If loss of area is higher, loss of extent is mostly immaterial, and implies to me the situation is even more dangerous...

But it could be melt ponds being misinterpreted as water.

Melt ponds at that scale are still alarming... And via reduced albedo, capturing multiples of the energy ice would.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #496 on: June 05, 2014, 06:18:38 AM »
well the june cliff likely began almost exactly when it should have, according to latest 4 years.
(day 154 = June 1st).

But mind you, so did 2013. It was only in the 3rd week of June that 2013 began to show her temperament, covering everything in mist and befuddling observers with hazy behavior. Maybe'twas, she had had enough of the statisticians trying to uncover the secrets of the polar ice thus reveiling herself after a very predictable start for the show. Are statisticians anymore welcome to watch the uncovering of ice from the pole, it could be asked. Should they become like weatherwatchers, as so many before them, taking note of every anticipation of possible future movements of ice?  In the last two days it looks like 2014 has started to darken her ice but alas, is the canvas of ice thinner or thicker than last year? At least it should be hotter in this arctic show, as over 400ppm stares right down from above giving hot glances to the performer.

oops, zero-point set on day 144, so this is just comparison between years.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2014, 10:32:56 AM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #497 on: June 05, 2014, 06:30:58 AM »
Rising GHGs are an every increasing positive feedback.

We have to take precise long term measurements over parts or the basin while measuring ghgs and then seeing how much the forcing has changed.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #498 on: June 05, 2014, 12:03:13 PM »
I think you are assuming the same thickness being melted from all cells that have that thickness. Do both area and volume reductions work out doing that?

I  am calculating volume based on the thickness distribution in the DOSBAT graph, and then estimating area from that.  So the estimated area and volume losses are correlated.
For 2011-2014 the actual area loss is very close to the estimated loss as at Jun 1st. (+- 150KKm2)  By July 31 the average volume loss (for 2011 to 2013) is equivalent  to  a 1.7 to 1.85 m average thickness loss. 
Obviously  the effect  of weather has to  be overlayed in the short term however the suggestion is that over a three month melt season from May 1 to  Jul 31 the average melt thickness is fairly  consistent.  Weather seems to  have a much  bigger effect in Aug/Sept when solar insolation is much  lower.

It's interesting to  observe that  the NSIDC Extent dropped below 12 M Km2 on the 3rd June. This is the 4th time this has happened in the past 8 years.  The range of dates since 2007 is only  8 days suggesting that  melt  rates are pretty  consistent.

« Last Edit: June 05, 2014, 03:05:48 PM by DavidR »
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #499 on: June 05, 2014, 12:31:33 PM »
IJIS Extent:
11,157,663 km2 (04 June)
Down 3,290,753 km2 (22.78%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
7,980,208 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 54,605 km2 from previous day.
Down 390,575 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -55,796 km2).
Down 227,792 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -56,948 km2).
326,301 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
34,095 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
307,268 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
195,049 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest June to-date average.