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Buddy

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #600 on: June 26, 2014, 04:14:12 PM »
CT area down 35% since June 18th (986 down to 646).

The ice melt season has been a see saw this year.  Next 6 weeks should be interesting.

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Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #601 on: June 26, 2014, 04:15:06 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop on Saturday of about -103k

About -73k can be attributed to the Hudson/Baffin/Greenland Sea. ESS, CAB and Barents dropped most in area, Beaufort had a big +41k uptick.

The extent numbers are similar. Barents had the biggest drop, probably a rebound from yesterday's false ice in the White Sea.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-06-25 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4452.7   +3.8    +7.2    909.9   +0.0   -11.6    513.1  -13.5  -177.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   877.3   -2.7   +53.4    170.9  -34.2  -233.0    446.0   -6.6  -152.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   514.8  -21.1  -176.7     61.8  +16.1   +56.5    782.4  -33.8  -116.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   659.8   -1.3   -52.2    425.8   +3.9   -48.1    416.7   -4.3   -54.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    28.0   -6.5   -12.4     45.7   -2.1   -27.1    156.5   +9.2   +27.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    42.9   -0.9   +37.8  10347.8 -103.2  -906.6

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4167.2  -14.5   +31.1    731.2  -17.0   -13.9    341.1   -1.8  -175.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   563.9   -9.5   -43.8     66.9  -11.2  -161.4    243.7   -1.5   -99.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   207.3  -17.6  -218.9     21.8   +6.3   +20.4    372.1  -53.6  -179.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   532.5  -12.6    +5.2    272.5  +41.3   -86.9    331.5   -3.3   -38.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     9.8   -1.7    -1.5     13.8   +0.3   -13.7     94.6   -2.7   +30.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    16.3   -0.4   +14.6   7891.6  -96.9  -960.7

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #602 on: June 27, 2014, 12:49:23 PM »
IJIS Extent:
9,628,634 km2 (26 June)
Down 4,819,782 km2 (33.36%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
6,451,179 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 62,695 km2 from previous day.
Down 645,107 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -92,158 km2).
Down 1,756,821 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -67,570 km2).
579,048 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
80,328 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
444,114 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
239,972 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fifth lowest June to-date average.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.21% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
13 days (7.34%) have recorded the second lowest.
45 days (25.42%) have recorded the third lowest.
69 days in total (38.98%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,938,144 km2 (26 June [Day 0.4822])
Down 5,549,193 km2 (41.14%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
5,704,135 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 79,750 km2 from previous day.
Down 850,964 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -121,566 km2).
Down 2,389,526 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -91,905 km2).
345,515 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
291,182 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
205,518 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
685,336 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest June to-date average.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.78% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.86%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.6%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (28.25%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2014, 02:58:09 PM by Jim Pettit »

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #603 on: June 27, 2014, 04:11:48 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop on Sunday of about -110k

About half of that is still from Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea. Big drops in ESS , Kara and Chukchi. An uptick in the CAB.

In extent the drop in extent (-90k) is matched by the Hudson and Baffin Bay. Big uptick in the CAA , lesser in Laptev. Quite a few regions have opposite signs of area and extent changes.


The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-06-26 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4452.7   -0.0    +7.8    915.7   +5.8    -5.0    525.5  +12.4  -163.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   866.7  -10.6   +48.0    157.2  -13.8  -236.8    455.2   +9.2  -138.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   446.8  -68.0  -232.6     48.7  -13.1   +43.5    755.2  -27.1  -123.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   692.3  +32.5   -18.4    418.9   -6.9   -52.9    415.5   -1.3   -50.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    23.8   -4.3   -15.3     52.0   +6.3   -18.5    172.8  +16.3   +44.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    31.8  -11.1   +26.9  10257.8  -90.0  -928.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4178.6  +11.4   +65.9    705.4  -25.9   -35.1    339.2   -1.9  -172.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   545.0  -18.9   -52.5     67.2   +0.3  -153.8    239.9   -3.8   -97.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   170.7  -36.6  -243.8     18.9   -2.9   +17.5    358.7  -13.4  -173.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   529.7   -2.9    +8.8    270.9   -1.5   -84.5    317.5  -14.1   -45.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     7.9   -1.9    -3.0     17.2   +3.4    -9.1     98.2   +3.5   +33.9
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    13.4   -2.8   +11.8   7780.1 -111.5  -966.0


Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #604 on: June 28, 2014, 12:52:26 PM »
IJIS Extent:
9,507,130 km2 (27 June)
Down 4,941,286 km2 (34.2%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
6,329,675 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 121,504 km2 from previous day.
Down 672,640 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -96,091 km2).
Down 1,878,325 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -69,568 km2).
633,979 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
59,923 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
450,528 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
171,056 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest June to-date average.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.18% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
13 days (7.3%) have recorded the second lowest.
45 days (25.28%) have recorded the third lowest.
69 days in total (38.76%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #605 on: June 28, 2014, 04:13:57 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Monday of about -107k

Of that Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea contribute about -70k. In the Arctic Basin, the CAB itself has a huge uptick, and quite big declines in the other regions except Barents and Beaufort Seas.

About the change in extent, the Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea contribute about -93k from the total -130k change. Kara and the CAA contribute most to the rest.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-06-27 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4452.7   -0.0    +8.4    915.1   -0.6    -5.0    515.1  -10.4  -172.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   841.6  -25.1   +28.0    148.5   -8.7  -234.0    432.7  -22.5  -155.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   446.1   -0.7  -220.7     48.2   -0.6   +43.3    685.9  -69.3  -172.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   664.2  -28.1   -45.0    423.3   +4.4   -45.9    416.6   +1.2   -44.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    35.5  +11.7    -0.4     68.1  +16.1    +3.4    163.6   -9.2   +34.5
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    33.8   +2.1   +29.4  10127.3 -130.4  -982.2

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4235.0  +56.4  +148.5    669.4  -36.0   -66.4    324.2  -15.0  -182.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   517.9  -27.2   -69.7     65.6   -1.6  -147.6    214.8  -25.1  -116.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   173.5   +2.8  -229.5     18.4   -0.6   +17.0    311.1  -47.6  -201.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   528.1   -1.6   +12.7    273.6   +2.6   -77.3    305.9  -11.6   -50.1
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    10.5   +2.7    +0.6     17.8   +0.6    -6.2     94.9   -3.3   +30.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    13.8   +0.4   +12.4   7679.4 -100.7  -955.7

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #606 on: June 28, 2014, 06:50:02 PM »
Man the arctic basin is either going to start having huge drops or it's just never going to get warm enuf for melt ponds.  It's crazy how well it's holding out in spite of the increased sun, plummeting extent, and clear visible melt on varying metrics.

The models show/buoy confirmation of the main arctic basin going above 0C and staying there 24/7 the next 4 days+.

That should be enough for a massive drop in area.

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AmbiValent

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #607 on: June 28, 2014, 07:36:53 PM »
Isn't the ice in the Arctic Basin still too thick to melt that fast?
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #608 on: June 28, 2014, 08:49:20 PM »
Isn't the ice in the Arctic Basin still too thick to melt that fast?

I think when friv says massive drop in area, he means a massive increase in melt ponds, not actual melt. This will show up in area data, not extent.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #609 on: June 29, 2014, 01:25:25 PM »
IJIS Extent:
9,358,592 km2 (28 June)
Down 5,089,824 km2 (35.23%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
6,181,137 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 148,538 km2 from previous day.
Down 714,574 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -102,082 km2).
Down 2,026,863 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -72,388 km2).
709,007 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
18,700 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
497,974 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
75,660 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fifth lowest June to-date average.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.15% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
13 days (7.26%) have recorded the second lowest.
45 days (25.14%) have recorded the third lowest.
69 days in total (38.55%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,746,438 km2 (28 June [Day 0.4877])
Down 5,740,900 km2 (42.57%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
5,512,428 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 106,194 km2 from previous day.
Down 659,754 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -94,251 km2).
Down 2,581,233 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -92,187 km2).
333,261 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
332,989 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
277,479 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
842,216 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest June to-date average.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.7% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.73%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.5%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (27.93%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #610 on: June 29, 2014, 04:35:53 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Tuesday of about -102k

Of that area drop about -53k can be attributed to Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea. In the Arctic Basin most regions had a fair decline excpet the ESS with a reather large uptick.

The extent drop is of course most spectacular. Of the -257k drop about -149k  can be attributed to Hudson/Baffin and Greenland Sea. Most other regions drop in extent with leaders Barents and Beaufort Seas.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-06-28 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4442.9   -9.8    -0.8    908.6   -6.4   -10.7    504.1  -11.0  -181.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   832.6   -9.1   +23.8    129.0  -19.5  -241.4    425.9   -6.8  -155.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   374.9  -71.1  -278.9     40.7   -7.5   +36.3    614.7  -71.2  -222.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   668.7   +4.5   -38.9    403.8  -19.5   -62.6    410.4   -6.2   -45.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    24.3  -11.2    -7.4     60.1   -7.9    +3.1    130.3  -33.3    +0.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    30.2   -3.7   +26.2   9870.9 -256.5 -1156.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4219.9  -15.1  +161.5    692.7  +23.3   -38.6    317.1   -7.1  -185.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   512.5   -5.3   -65.0     58.6   -7.0  -146.5    206.2   -8.6  -118.8
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   142.3  -31.2  -249.6     16.8   -1.5   +15.6    297.9  -13.2  -194.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   532.8   +4.7   +22.4    261.3  -12.2   -84.6    295.7  -10.2   -53.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     7.8   -2.7    -0.9     19.2   +1.4    -1.8     83.9  -11.0   +19.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    11.6   -2.2   +10.3   7592.4  -87.0  -929.1

TerryM

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #611 on: June 29, 2014, 10:17:07 PM »
Wipneus


Can't help wondering if the CAA increases aren't due to cloud & fog. Temperatures are high and our intrepid voyager has been complaining of driving rain (from the Arctic Passage thread).
Maximum temperatures over the past week from 20 C at Holman, 13 C at Taloyoak and 5 C at Resolute haven't been what we'd expect from areas where ice is growing & the crack across the top of the archipelago should preclude advection.
http://www.ogimet.com/gsynop.phtml.en


Terry

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #612 on: June 29, 2014, 11:34:58 PM »
Wipneus


Can't help wondering if the CAA increases aren't due to cloud & fog. Temperatures are high and our intrepid voyager has been complaining of driving rain (from the Arctic Passage thread).
Maximum temperatures over the past week from 20 C at Holman, 13 C at Taloyoak and 5 C at Resolute haven't been what we'd expect from areas where ice is growing & the crack across the top of the archipelago should preclude advection.
http://www.ogimet.com/gsynop.phtml.en

The only rational way I can think that CAA increases could happen is through export from the Arctic basin.  The Beaufort is flat out as a source.  I agree; the increases must be an artifact of sensing.


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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #613 on: June 30, 2014, 12:26:13 AM »
It's above freezing over the basin most of the recent days.  Foggy as hell


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LRC1962

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #614 on: June 30, 2014, 02:37:44 AM »
Friv Shouldn't that mean serious melt? Arctic fog usually means some advection from water, Unless you are getting warm moist air getting pumped in. Either case lots of melt from my limited understanding. Another thought, has anyone compared 2014 fog days to other years. I keep hearing this year far more fog reports on images where in other years it has been cloud as the culprit. Basically same stuff, but ice likes cloud and really hates fog. Then maybe this is all clueless ramblings :-\
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Frivolousz21

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #615 on: June 30, 2014, 06:38:22 AM »
Friv Shouldn't that mean serious melt? Arctic fog usually means some advection from water, Unless you are getting warm moist air getting pumped in. Either case lots of melt from my limited understanding. Another thought, has anyone compared 2014 fog days to other years. I keep hearing this year far more fog reports on images where in other years it has been cloud as the culprit. Basically same stuff, but ice likes cloud and really hates fog. Then maybe this is all clueless ramblings :-\

I remember reading a coast guard report about fog in the Beaufort region causing 20CM a day loss of ice. 

Obviously that came with low level warm air advection from land so the fog over the Southern Arctic Basin is probably no where near as potent.

But it's above freezing and satellites indicate no ice crystals in the fog.  So there should be melting and some solar getting in.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #616 on: June 30, 2014, 07:22:52 AM »
Ijis/Jaxa 30/06/2014

9,185,346 km2

down 173,246 km^2 from day before.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #617 on: June 30, 2014, 08:08:42 AM »
Can't help wondering if the CAA increases aren't due to cloud & fog. Temperatures are high and our intrepid voyager has been complaining of driving rain (from the Arctic Passage thread).
Maximum temperatures over the past week from 20 C at Holman, 13 C at Taloyoak and 5 C at Resolute haven't been what we'd expect from areas where ice is growing & the crack across the top of the archipelago should preclude advection.
http://www.ogimet.com/gsynop.phtml.en
Terry

Terry, I consider the NSIDC extent day-to-day quite unreliable in the CAA due to the land spillover effect that can causing false ice. Unless the changes are big, I tend to ignore the numbers. The area numbers are more reliable, as false ice is mostly low concentration. So if there are clear area numbers, I trust the extent a bit better if they tell the same tale.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #618 on: June 30, 2014, 08:28:31 AM »
I am not reporting Jaxa's area or regional data very often, but the continuing lack of drops in the Arcitc Basin is obvious here as well.
Yesterday no net area decline in the Arctic Basin.
The Jaxa details can be seen in the regional graphs that come with the "home brew" thread, see the first post.


Calculated from Jaxa L3 AMSR2 data, 10km resolution

Extent:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   -7.2                    -7.3                   -19.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -17.9                    -4.5                     1.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -42.9                     0.6                   -13.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.8                   -15.5                    -5.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                   -0.3                     2.1                  -128.3

Area:
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.6                    20.5                    -6.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -4.4                    -0.9                    -0.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -24.7                     0.1                     1.8
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -5.9                    -1.2                    -1.6
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                   -1.2                     0.3                   -23.3

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #619 on: June 30, 2014, 08:37:52 AM »
Really think it's the fog.

Some areas it's just higher surface albedo/less melting.  But the foggy areas pretty much line up very well with the super high concentration areas on the day to day charts. 

It's been above freezing from time to time during solar max.  It's impossible for there to not be surface melt to some degree. 

The only reason area isn't plummeting like extent is the central arctic basin apparently having a totally dry surface?








I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #620 on: June 30, 2014, 09:33:00 AM »
Really think it's the fog.

Some areas it's just higher surface albedo/less melting.  But the foggy areas pretty much line up very well with the super high concentration areas on the day to day charts. 

It's been above freezing from time to time during solar max.  It's impossible for there to not be surface melt to some degree. 

The only reason area isn't plummeting like extent is the central arctic basin apparently having a totally dry surface?

Almost seems the various feed backs are circling the wagons around the core of the basin.  Everything peripheral will likely melt out, along with a big chunk of the basin towards the Kara, where thins are broken up.  It will also get seriously nibbled along the edges with the Beaufort and possibly the ESS.

To steal a military phrase, "the center may hold".
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Frivolousz21

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #621 on: June 30, 2014, 09:54:50 AM »
Really think it's the fog.

Some areas it's just higher surface albedo/less melting.  But the foggy areas pretty much line up very well with the super high concentration areas on the day to day charts. 

It's been above freezing from time to time during solar max.  It's impossible for there to not be surface melt to some degree. 

The only reason area isn't plummeting like extent is the central arctic basin apparently having a totally dry surface?

Almost seems the various feed backs are circling the wagons around the core of the basin.  Everything peripheral will likely melt out, along with a big chunk of the basin towards the Kara, where thins are broken up.  It will also get seriously nibbled along the edges with the Beaufort and possibly the ESS.

To steal a military phrase, "the center may hold".

I think we are in high agreement. 

Since the center is roughly 80N regions we should end up with a pretty low end result. 



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #622 on: June 30, 2014, 12:37:09 PM »
IJIS Extent:
9,185,346 km2 (29 June)
Down 5,263,070 km2 (36.43%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
6,007,891 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 173,246 km2 from previous day. [NOTE: 6th largest one-day decrease on record; largest since 08 Aug 2012.]
Down 777,260 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -111,037 km2).
Down 2,200,109 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -75,866 km2).
795,794 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
49,573 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
543,895 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
21,454 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest June to-date average.
Fourth lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.11% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
13 days (7.22%) have recorded the second lowest.
45 days (25.%) have recorded the third lowest.
69 days in total (38.33%) have been among the lowest three on record.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #623 on: June 30, 2014, 01:47:41 PM »
Apologies for the delay, was moving to Cork city yesterday.

Update for the week to June 21st

The current 5 day mean is on 10,217,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,878,820km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -960,280km2, an increase from -614,840km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +198,770km2, a change from +382,201km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week.
The average daily change over the last 7 days was -110.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -61.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -84.5k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -89.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -132.2k/day.

The loss so far this June is the 6th largest on record. To manage an average June loss, an increase of 178k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -439k/day and the smallest loss needs a gain of +386.4k/day.



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #624 on: June 30, 2014, 04:20:25 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Wednesday of about -129k.

About -123k can be attributed to Hudson and friends. In the Arctic Basin the ESS had an uptick in area, while the CAB and Chuckchi had the strongest area declines.

In extent we have an exceptional triple century, even more extreme could be (just guessing) is the -252k of the Hudson Bay, combined with Baffin Bay this accounts for almost the total extent loss. Only Beaufort had a decline of some significance.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-06-29 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4439.6   -3.3    -3.6    909.2   +0.6    -9.0    497.6   -6.6  -186.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   822.3  -10.3   +18.8    125.8   -3.2  -232.7    432.3   +6.5  -143.0
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   317.8  -57.1  -323.2     44.2   +3.6   +40.4    372.1 -242.6  -444.2
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   681.6  +12.9   -24.7    390.0  -13.8   -73.3    402.3   -8.1   -48.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    36.5  +12.2    +8.8     50.8   -9.4    +1.3    128.0   -2.3    -3.0
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    44.7  +14.5   +41.3   9566.8 -304.0 -1377.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4197.5  -22.4  +164.9    715.4  +22.8   -10.5    318.6   +1.5  -179.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   515.8   +3.2   -52.0     58.6   +0.0  -138.6    204.1   -2.2  -114.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   121.4  -20.9  -259.3     18.4   +1.5   +17.3    207.7  -90.2  -265.7
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   542.2   +9.4   +35.4    252.4   -9.0   -88.8    279.8  -15.9   -61.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    10.0   +2.2    +2.5     14.7   -4.5    -3.4     85.2   +1.3   +20.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    12.9   +1.3   +11.8   7469.3 -123.1  -942.3

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #625 on: July 01, 2014, 04:17:52 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area uptick next Thursday of about +29k.

It is all caused by a rebound in Hudson of 60k. In the Arctic Basin the CAB and Kara declined, while ESS and Beaufort increased in area.

The extent of Hudson had an even larger increase, in fact a regional century of +109k. The declines in Baffin and some small changes in other regions are not enough  to compensate resulting in an extent increase of +39k.

The details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-06-30 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4435.8   -3.9    -7.0    915.0   +5.8    -2.1    487.2  -10.4  -195.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   811.5  -10.8   +13.3    129.7   +3.9  -216.2    433.9   +1.6  -134.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   290.0  -27.9  -338.2     39.0   -5.2   +36.0    480.7 +108.6  -314.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   675.0   -6.5   -30.0    390.0   +0.0   -69.6    399.2   -3.1   -45.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    40.7   +4.2   +18.4     53.6   +2.8   +14.1    130.9   +2.9    -1.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    24.9  -19.8   +22.2   9606.2  +39.3 -1248.8

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4170.5  -27.0  +162.8    730.1  +14.7   +10.9    311.7   -6.9  -182.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   495.1  -20.7   -63.5     59.0   +0.4  -130.5    207.4   +3.4  -104.2
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   115.2   -6.2  -254.6     15.0   -3.4   +14.1    268.1  +60.4  -186.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   550.9   +8.7   +45.5    264.2  +11.8   -72.0    271.7   -8.2   -61.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    10.8   +0.8    +4.7     15.8   +1.1    +1.5     85.0   -0.2   +20.1
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     7.0   -5.8    +6.2   7492.5  +23.2  -810.1



Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #626 on: July 01, 2014, 05:41:55 PM »
IJIS Extent:
9,057,557 km2 (30 June)
Down 5,390,859 km2 (37.31%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,880,102 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 127,789 km2 from previous day.
Down 778,391 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -111,199 km2).
Down 2,327,898 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -77,597 km2).
848,644 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
80,022 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
554,783 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
17,646 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Fourth lowest June average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.08% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
13 days (7.18%) have recorded the second lowest.
46 days (25.41%) have recorded the third lowest.
70 days in total (38.67%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,539,478 km2 (30 June [Day 0.4932])
Down 5,947,859 km2 (44.1%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
5,305,469 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 95,106 km2 from previous day.
Down 645,296 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -92,185 km2).
Down 2,788,192 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -92,940 km2).
368,753 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
369,762 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
166,857 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
810,387 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest June average.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.63% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.6%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.39%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (27.62%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 07:01:12 PM by Jim Pettit »

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #627 on: July 01, 2014, 05:56:51 PM »
We are now exactly in the middle of the melt season. 2 1/2 months in, 2 1/2 months to go.

We are interestingly have lost 5.3 million km2 in extent, and are 5.9 million from the record.

We have lost 5.9 million km2 in area, and are 5.3 million above the minimum.

Any sense of what average second-half losses are from this milestone?
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Phil.

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #628 on: July 01, 2014, 06:11:22 PM »

Seventh lowest July average.


Shouldn't this be June average?

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #629 on: July 01, 2014, 10:23:09 PM »
Jdallen, I recently did some calculations and found that, for the period of 2000-2013, the average monthly CT area losses were:
July:  2.630 mk3
Aug:  1.116 mk3

If you applied those average monthly losses to 2014's 7.539 mk3 at the end of June, you'd get:
July 31st:  4.909 mk3
August 31st:  3.793 mk3

If you applied the highest monthly losses for July and August (from the 2000-2014 CT area record) to 2014's 7.539 mk3 at the end of June, you'd get:
July 31st:  4.465 mk3
August 31st:  3.049 mk3

It seems that barely beating 2007 is the best that 2014 could hope for at this point, with the average case pointing to a repeat of 2013.

For fun, here is what I would call the "best case" for a melt season using the lowest March 31st value on record from 2007-2014 CT area, and applying the highest monthly melt from 2007-2014 for each melt month:
Highest April decline:  1.460 mk3 (2010)
Highest May decline:  2.344 mk3 (2008)
Highest June decline:  3.327 mk3 (2012)
Highest July decline:  3.074 mk3 (2009)
Highest August decline:  1.416 mk3 (2008)

Lowest CT area as of March 31st:  12.691 mk3 (2007)
April 30th:  11.231 mk3
May 31st:  8.887 mk3
June 30th:  5.560 mk3
July 31st:  2.486 mk3
August 31st:  1.070 mk3

So, given an ideal year that starts out with record low area in March like 2007 and keeps having ideal melt weather every month up to what we know has been recently historically possible, we could get as low as 1.070 mk3 by the end of August.  But it would require the weather slot machine to keep throwing up triple 7's every month for a whole season. 

ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #630 on: July 01, 2014, 10:52:32 PM »
Comradez,

Note that the highest declines are after 2007. Do you think that the years since then have revealed the full range of feasible variability?

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #631 on: July 01, 2014, 11:14:04 PM »
That 'variability ' must surely be tied to ice type , amounts and positioning of ice types and ice condition?

I'm still watching this year with half an eye for the fragmented, rounded portions of the pack to see what an 'average weather year' means to such ice? We saw what a cool/ice retentive year made of it but what of a post 07' 'average year'?

I used to use the CT concentration map, for Aug 1st, to guide me as to what sept min would look like ( just take out all that is not deep purple!) but I'm wondering if that will not prove a little 'conservative' over the areas that are badly fragmented?

In the past it took all summer to degrade the pack to the state we see large areas in today and some of that 'fragmented ice' would blink out come late Aug ( after becoming fragmented in july). This year it has been fragmented and dislocated since June? That change to the surface area to ice mass ratio means floes get to absorb a lot more heat into the floe and must aid melt out?

In 2012 an 'average summer' surpassed what a perfect melt storm was need to produce in 2007 ( by a similar margin from its then closest record low!) so I'm content to think that I am still learning as to how this 'New Arctic' works!
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helorime

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #632 on: July 01, 2014, 11:37:54 PM »
All recent years have ended up crunched into roughly the same spot at the end of July/beginning of August.  Where the big divergences occur is AFTER the first week in August.  In 2012 everything just kept melting, 2011 and 2007 were similar though not as extensive, and 2013 had a substantial slowdown.  The standard deviation narrows in July then expands rapidly in August.  The Jun 30 values are not predictive of the September minima.

This is from NSIDC extent data, area with at least 15% sea ice in millions kilometers squared

          Jun30   Jul15  Aug1   Aug15   Aug31    Sept15
2007  10.24    8.21   6.64    5.45     4.8         4.2     
2010    9.39    8.40   7.02    6.01     5.22       4.8
2011    9.70    7.84   6.68    5.64     4.71       4.45
2012    9.52    7.89   6.42    4.85     3.73       3.42     
2013  10.30    8.36   6.99    6.13     5.37       5.10
2014    9.89

std dev 374K   261K   253K  509K   642K      643K   
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Comradez

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #633 on: July 01, 2014, 11:58:29 PM »
ChrisReynolds,

As a matter of fact, there were some larger monthly declines before 2007.  If I remember correctly, 2003 had an April monthly decline of 1.8 mk3, which beat out 2010's 1.460 mk3 April decline.  But I figured that that was starting from a very high baseline in 2003 with a lot of weak ice around the edges, so I restricted my analysis to 2007 to the present due to the consideration that the ice regime fundamentally changed in 2007, and years before that might not be particularly comparable.

What I found interesting from the stats on highest monthly melts since 2007 was that 2012, the mega-melt year, only had the highest melt in one month--June--and only by about 0.3 mk3.  2012 did not blow away the competition by having unprecedented melts in almost every month.  Instead, 2012 had very solid melts in most months and one mega-melt month, and that was enough to soar to a new record.  2012 was not an ideal melt year.  2007, in many ways, was a more ideal melt year that was held back by having to start from a higher volume.  If we had another 2007 now, I would wager we would get down to 1.5 mk3 by the end of August.

jdallen

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #634 on: July 02, 2014, 12:17:45 AM »
All recent years have ended up crunched into roughly the same spot at the end of July/beginning of August.  Where the big divergences occur is AFTER the first week in August.  In 2012 everything just kept melting, 2011 and 2007 were similar though not as extensive, and 2013 had a substantial slowdown.  The standard deviation narrows in July then expands rapidly in August.  The Jun 30 values are not predictive of the September minima.

This is from NSIDC extent data, area with at least 15% sea ice in millions kilometers squared

          Jun30   Jul15  Aug1   Aug15   Aug31    Sept15
2007  10.24    8.21   6.64    5.45     4.8         4.2     
2010    9.39    8.40   7.02    6.01     5.22       4.8
2011    9.70    7.84   6.68    5.64     4.71       4.45
2012    9.52    7.89   6.42    4.85     3.73       3.42     
2013  10.30    8.36   6.99    6.13     5.37       5.10
2014    9.89

std dev 374K   261K   253K  509K   642K      643K   

Excellent!  I think we may be on something here...

Building from Helorime & Comradez's numbers, focusing just on extent.

Current - 9.89 for 2014

           Total Drop June 30/Sept 15
2007       6.04
2010       4.59
2011       5.25
2012       6.10
2013       5.20

Average is 5.40

Assume +/- 0.64    Max likely loss:  6.4
                              Min likely loss:   4.75

Our statistical endpoints become 3.49 (just above 2012) to 5.14 (just above 2013)

Most likely minimum (using close to mode & average melt): 4.49 KM2, which would drop 2014 into the #3 slot for lowest minimum.

The +/- 2 sDev ones would be... 3.21 (edging out 2012)
                                                    5.77 (putting us back to out past the current top 5)

The outcome will indeed be determined by July and August weather.
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greatdying2

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #635 on: July 02, 2014, 02:11:53 AM »

Most likely minimum (using close to mode & average melt): 4.49 KM2, which would drop 2014 into the #3 slot for lowest minimum.
And accounting for the downward trend, the most likely minimum would be even lower.
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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #636 on: July 02, 2014, 05:15:44 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Friday of about -213k.

It is the first of the month, that means NSIDC applies a new monthly ocean mask to the raw concentration data. In the melting season it means a spurious decline by false ice that is now masked out.

In the detailed overview that follows it can be seen that big declines are in regions like St.Lawrence, Bering and Sea of Okhotsk where the ice is already gone.

For this reason I skip commenting the regional break down  today. Tomorrow the data will be more relevant.


Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-01 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4427.4   -8.4   -14.9    915.1   +0.0    -0.9    469.0  -18.2  -211.3
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   794.7  -16.8    +1.8    117.5  -12.2  -215.3    415.9  -18.1  -145.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   263.7  -26.3  -351.4      0.0  -39.0    -2.2    459.5  -21.2  -314.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   673.1   -2.0   -30.9    376.8  -13.2   -78.7    385.4  -13.7   -53.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     2.4  -38.3   -13.5     28.5  -25.1    +0.7    136.2   +5.3    +1.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    23.8   -1.0   +22.0   9352.7 -253.5 -1407.7

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4141.7  -28.8  +158.8    715.5  -14.7    +3.5    298.3  -13.4  -192.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   471.3  -23.8   -78.3     49.4   -9.6  -132.3    205.0   -2.4   -99.3
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   104.6  -10.6  -254.4      0.0  -15.0    -0.6    238.0  -30.1  -197.4
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   549.4   -1.5   +44.0    245.5  -18.7   -85.5    247.0  -24.7   -78.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.1   -9.7    -3.2     10.6   -5.2    +0.6     84.0   -1.0   +18.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     5.6   -1.4    +5.0   7282.9 -209.6  -910.3

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #637 on: July 02, 2014, 06:53:08 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,936,847 km2 (01 July)
Down 5,511,569 km2 (38.15%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,759,392 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 120,710 km2 from previous day.
Down 825,301 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -117,900 km2).
Down 120,710 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -120,710 km2).
897,521 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
92,964 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
506,366 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
4,373 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Second lowest July to-date average.
Second lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.04% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.69%) have recorded the second lowest.
46 days (25.27%) have recorded the third lowest.
71 days in total (39.01%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,399,285 km2 (01 July [Day 0.4958])
Down 6,088,052 km2 (45.14%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
5,165,276 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 140,193 km2 from previous day.
Down 687,969 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -98,281 km2).
Down 2,928,385 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -2,928,385 km2).
358,063 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
324,268 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
194,478 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
786,552 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Sixth lowest July to-date average.
Sixth lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.59% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.54%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.34%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (27.47%) have been among the lowest three on record.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #638 on: July 02, 2014, 07:50:38 PM »
Comradez,

CT Area melt season range has notably increased since 2007.


The seasonal cycle has changed massively, as evidenced by anomalies of CT Area (baseline 1980 to 1999).

1980s


1990s


2000 to 2006


2007 to 2012 - these are from an old blog post of mine so don't include 2013 and 2014.


I've attached a copy of a plot of NSIDC June losses, which shows a jump after 2010, the last major volume loss event.

What I am saying is that large increases of loss have happened after the 2007 and 2010 volume loss events. However data following those periods are limited. I doubt that we have seen the full range of possible behaviours since those volume loss events.

Yes there have been extreme losses of area/extent in the past, however those happening before 2007/2010 were area/extent losses of much thicker ice. The weather that led to those events would therefore (from a thermodynamic point of view) be expected to have even greater impacts with the younger thinner ice the predominates after 2007 and later 2010. The question remains whether 2012 is really the lowest we can go with reasonably expected weather over a melt season impacting a post 2010 ice state, or whether different configurations of weather could lead to greater losses.

On the other hand I think 2013 probably represents the rough upper bound of melt with weather that favours ice retention.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #639 on: July 02, 2014, 08:14:59 PM »
To add to your post Chris, based on the 5 day mean NSIDC extent.



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

ktonine

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #640 on: July 03, 2014, 02:19:21 AM »
Chris R. writes: " I doubt that we have seen the full range of possible behaviours since those volume loss events."

I think that's the second time Chris has voiced this belief - and he's correct.  We're dealing with small sample sizes - so the odds of new records (high or low) are relatively large.  We saw 2013 flatline on CT for 11 days in August ... unprecedented ... only 2001 shows anything even close - and 2001 isn't that close.

The past is all we really have to go by - but we need to keep in mind that surprises are the norm :)

greatdying2

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #641 on: July 03, 2014, 03:38:37 AM »
The past is all we really have to go by - but we need to keep in mind that surprises are the norm :)
Good thing too: the interesting to some degree offsets the frightening.

Chris and BFTV, great graphs! Impossible (you would think!) to ignore these disturbing trends...

BFTV, I was wondering, is that the last 7 years (2007-2013) vs. the preceding 7 (2000 -2006)? Or earlier years? And I suppose it is weekly loss over the 4 calendar weeks of June (rather than max or something)? Thanks.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #642 on: July 03, 2014, 12:12:41 PM »
IJIS Extent:
8,866,060 km2 (02 July)
Down 5,582,356 km2 (38.64%) from 2014 maximum of 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March.
5,688,605 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 70,787 km2 from previous day.
Down 825,269 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -117,896 km2).
Down 191,497 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -95,749 km2).
887,396 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
58,721 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
429,864 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
31,325 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Third lowest July to-date average.
Third lowest value for the date.
11 days this year (6.01% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
14 days (7.65%) have recorded the second lowest.
47 days (25.68%) have recorded the third lowest.
72 days in total (39.34%) have been among the lowest three on record.


CT Area:
7,421,478 km2 (02 July [Day 0.4987])
Down 6,065,859 km2 (44.97%) from 2014 maximum of 13,487,337 km2 on 22 March [Day 0.2192].
5,187,469 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Up 22,193 km2 from previous day.
Down 596,415 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -85,202 km2).
Down 118,000 km2 for the month of July (daily average: -59,000 km2).
193,168 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
401,467 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
90,070 km2 below 2013 value for this date.
885,765 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Seventh lowest July to-date average.
Seventh lowest value for the date.
12 days this year (6.56% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
21 days (11.48%) have recorded the second lowest.
17 days (9.29%) have recorded the third lowest.
50 days in total (27.32%) have been among the lowest three on record.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 04:02:09 PM by Jim Pettit »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #643 on: July 03, 2014, 01:55:07 PM »
Good thing too: the interesting to some degree offsets the frightening.

Chris and BFTV, great graphs! Impossible (you would think!) to ignore these disturbing trends...

BFTV, I was wondering, is that the last 7 years (2007-2013) vs. the preceding 7 (2000 -2006)? Or earlier years? And I suppose it is weekly loss over the 4 calendar weeks of June (rather than max or something)? Thanks.

Hi lurker,

It's the first 7 years of the record (1979-1985 vs 2007 to 2013), though perhaps I should have expanded that to the first and last 8 years, now that we have all of June's data. I can post up the 2000-2006 vs 2007-2013 if you like? (or maybe 1999-2006 vs 2007-2014?)
The 7 day loss is just the rolling 7 days, so there's 30 separate 7 day losses in June, stating from May 26th- June 1st, finishing June 24th to June 30th.

June and July show the biggest departures from the long term, with August moving back closer to earlier years, presumably as the thin, weak ice has mostly melted at that stage.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #644 on: July 03, 2014, 04:15:47 PM »
Using the 5 day mean extent, 2014 becomes only the 3rd year on record to achieve a loss greater than 1 million km2 over a 7 day period (1.002 million km2), along with 2007 and 2013. A true sign of the terrible state of the ice, given that it occurred without exceptional weather conditions.



Will it go much lower? How many 7 day >1 million losses can we maintain? Both 2007 and 2013 achieved 6 consecutive ones, with the largest, 1.231 million km2 occurring between June 30th and July 6th 2007.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #645 on: July 03, 2014, 04:25:15 PM »
From area calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration I expect a CT-area drop next Saturday of about -65k.

That is not the CAB, it has another uptick and has now a positive anomaly of about +200k. Most other regions did decline, strongest in the ESS, Kara and Chuckchi.

In extent Kara and Beaufort had the biggest declines. The ESS that had a lower area actually increased by extent. 

Here are the details:

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2014-07-02 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2  Anomalies are from the 1981-2010 mean values

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4422.8   -4.6   -19.1    918.9   +3.9    +4.5    465.8   -3.2  -212.4
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   751.1  -43.6   -35.4    119.9   +2.5  -200.9    415.8   -0.1  -138.6
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   242.9  -20.8  -359.3      0.0   +0.0    -1.5    495.3  +35.9  -256.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   657.8  -15.3   -45.0    350.9  -25.9  -100.7    371.8  -13.6   -61.2
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.6   +1.2    -7.5     21.7   -6.8    +3.0    183.5  +47.3   +47.7
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    37.5  +13.7   +36.3   9276.0  -76.7 -1394.0

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4160.2  +18.5  +200.5    690.3  -25.2   -14.6    287.9  -10.4  -199.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   452.2  -19.0   -87.6     45.1   -4.3  -129.3    200.8   -4.2   -96.5
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
    96.8   -7.8  -251.5      0.0   +0.0    -0.4    239.9   +1.9  -176.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   538.9  -10.5   +33.8    234.4  -11.1   -92.0    232.8  -14.1   -84.9
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     1.7   +0.6    -1.3      8.8   -1.8    +2.1     95.8  +11.8   +30.3
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    11.0   +5.4   +10.6   7200.7  -82.2  -887.6

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #646 on: July 03, 2014, 04:41:10 PM »
Attached are the regional graphs of my  NSIDC concentration based calculations.

One thing to notice: St.Lawrence, Bering and Sea of Okhotsk are zeroed out from the first of July, due to NSIDC monthly ocean masks.
Further the CAB area is really standing out, the area is currently more than one sigma positive.



ChrisReynolds

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #647 on: July 03, 2014, 07:57:22 PM »
Wipneus,

Do you have all the 1979 onwards NSIDC area/extent data broken down into regions?

Actually what I should have asked was  - is it uploaded somehwere, couldn't find it on Arctic Penguin.

greatdying2

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #648 on: July 03, 2014, 09:49:01 PM »
Good thing too: the interesting to some degree offsets the frightening.

Chris and BFTV, great graphs! Impossible (you would think!) to ignore these disturbing trends...

BFTV, I was wondering, is that the last 7 years (2007-2013) vs. the preceding 7 (2000 -2006)? Or earlier years? And I suppose it is weekly loss over the 4 calendar weeks of June (rather than max or something)? Thanks.

Hi lurker,

It's the first 7 years of the record (1979-1985 vs 2007 to 2013), though perhaps I should have expanded that to the first and last 8 years, now that we have all of June's data. I can post up the 2000-2006 vs 2007-2013 if you like? (or maybe 1999-2006 vs 2007-2014?)
The 7 day loss is just the rolling 7 days, so there's 30 separate 7 day losses in June, stating from May 26th- June 1st, finishing June 24th to June 30th.

June and July show the biggest departures from the long term, with August moving back closer to earlier years, presumably as the thin, weak ice has mostly melted at that stage.
I would certainly like to see the 8-year version (either one). Thanks!!
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Wipneus

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Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #649 on: July 04, 2014, 01:44:08 PM »
Wipneus,

Do you have all the 1979 onwards NSIDC area/extent data broken down into regions?

Actually what I should have asked was  - is it uploaded somehwere, couldn't find it on Arctic Penguin.

Chris the data can be found in the directory https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data

A formal announcement with some more explanation will have to wait, but in short:

There is a description in the header of the files.

There are "final" and "nrt" (near real time) versions, as derived from the final and nrt NSIdc data. The "nrt" files are updated daily. The "final" once or twice a year.

"main" gives the total (all except lakes) values of extent and area as well as anomalies.
"detail" gives a break down of regional extent and area
"anom" gives the anomalies of the regional extent and areas

"normal" the daily (correct for leap/non-leap shifts) normals
"stddev" the standard deviations that come with "normal"

"summary" the daily summary, part of my daily posting.